I just signed up for the Grassroots Leaders Forum -- a great idea! -- on behalf of the Collaboration Project, an initiative of 70+ leaders of grassroots groups in 12 states launched in late August. The Collaboration Project's goal is to strategically connect and support grassroots leaders in our critical work in 2024. We have already begun offering phonebank organizer training and a meeting to establish ties among the largest postcarding groups nationwide, with working groups on additional issues about to launch now that the VA election is behind us. To learn more, including to list your group in the Directory we're building, write to Julie Greenberg, julie.collaborationproject@gmail.com
David Pepper’s map of the bigger picture is a good antidote for the burnout so many are experiencing. Rally our numbers to share the load. People take a break to re-energize and then get back in there. File lawsuits and initiatives for fair redistricting, support Dem candidates in all races, register voters, and get out the vote! Keep building our blue wave! 💙🌊
David Pepper’s books:
Laboratories of Autocracy
Saving Democracy
Thank you, Robert, for organizing this organizational refresher!
The state of play for the US Senate -- taking account funds as of Oct 1 and the most recent poll (October unless otherwise mentioned)
1. Before he withdrew, Joe Manchin, despite his $11+ M, was behind Jim Justice by 13 points. He was the most vulnerable Democratic Senator.
2. The only other race in which a Democrat was behind was NJ. If Menendez were the nominee, he was 3 points behind Chris Christie (not that Christie is running). Andy Kim, on the other hand, was 26 points ahead of Chris Christie. Kim only had $1.9 M on 10/1. If he gets an opponent, he'll need a lot more.
3. The most recent poll for Tammy Baldwin in WI was from May. She was 1 point ahead of Congressman Mike Gallagher who has been clear that he is not running. She had $6.8 million and, so far, no serious opponent.
4. Jon Tester of MT was 4 points ahead of Tim Sheehy. He had $13 M to Sheehy's $1.3 M.
5. Rep Reuben Gallego of AZ was 4 or 5 points ahead of Kari Lake in a 2 person race or a 3 person race. Gallego had $5 M, Lake reported no money, and Sinema was consistently 3rd in a 3 person race, but had $10.7 M if she really wants to spend it on a futile race.
6. Rep Elissa Slotkin of MI was 5 points ahead of ex Rep Mike Rogers. She reported $5.1 M to his less than $1 M.
7. Jacky Rosen of NV was 5 points ahead of Sam Brown. She reported $8.8 M and he reported $1 M
8. Bab Casey Jr of PA was 6 points ahead of David McCormick. Casey reported $7.3 M, McCormick had just begun.
9. Sherrod Brown of OH had 3 possible opponents. Against the closest, he was 13 points ahead. He had $11.2 M. Two of his opponents had $5 M or more.
This is not intended to encourage complacency. Even without WV, Democrats, if we can re-elect Jo Biden, can feel a little confidence about the Senate -- if we keep giving money and writing postcards and volunteering. Remember, the billionaires will give their campaigns plenty of money. We can even think about flipping some seats.
1. In FL, the last poll in June showed Rick Scott defeating Phil Ehr by 4 points. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (who had no real opposition for the nomination) began October with only $1M, Scott had $3 M (though he can add millions whenever).
2. In MO, Hawley was leading Lucas Kunce by 4 points. Hawley had $4.7 M, Kunce only $1.7 M
3. in TX, the last poll in May showed Ted Cruz defeating Colin Allred by 5 points. Allred began October with $7.9 M, Cruz with $5.7 M.
The Democrats have at least as strong a chance of flipping a Republican seat as Republicans have of flipping a seat other than West Virginia. But only if you give money, write postcards, and volunteer in other ways.
Good stuff but Democrats in these states need to give Republicans a reason to vote Democratic which means we need to refine our messages and make them more local and pointed. We also need to provide financial support.
Lucas Kunce in Missouri is a good candidate and has the credentials to flip the state blue if that’s possible. Still, the discrepancy in their campaign funds is concerning.
I agree about the chance that Kunce could beat Hawley, provided that he gets support from a united Democratic party now that Wesley Bell has withdrawn from the race and, of course, the financial support needed to have an effective campaign. He had a solid chance against Schmitt until Trudy Valentine jumped in out of nowhere to be a spoiler.
Leonard, this is a very good post with the type of information we need as we plan for 2024 with the best use of our resources - both $$ and time. I would welcome more such data and concurrently want to push the envelope to find “red” states or vulnerable Republican candidates who can be flipped.
Also, Robert urges us to ignore polls and $$s can’t be the only measure of our potential success. Nevertheless, your post is an excellent beginning. Let’s do well by quality candidates, identify them and the issues/messaging that can make a difference. Then, let’s target elections to grow our numbers in the House and Senate.
Obviously, you put a lot of work into this post and it is helpful. What are other good sources to identify opportunities and plow new ground? For example, with Robert’s report today might we begin to look at Republican House members from Ohio who can be flipped. Perhaps do the same in Kentucky or Virginia? (Yes, that requires we recognize some like Jim Jordan might be safe gerrymandered districts. But in the long game Eric Holder’s effort to confront gerrymandering might be worth supporting or engaging.)
My bottom line is aligned with your post. Let’s make plans. Let’s be smart. Let’s use good metrics and messages. Let’s beat back the burnout and direct our energies to inspire voters.
We can do this. Thank you very much for this detailed report.
Len, Ehr has dropped out of the race against Rick ( 11 point Rescue NOT!) Scott to run for a Fl House seat. One can dream in the sunshine state 😎for a Debbie Mucarasel-Powell win.
She only needs 💰💰💰 as Rick Scott is not the most popular guy.
We need to do something in Florida as our messaging to Latinos is not winning, apparently. This has been going on for years now, even before Trump won Latino votes in 2020!
Thanks for the analysis. Do you all feel that straightforward donations to the DNC will lead to them directing funds to those Congressional races that are of best strategic success probability and impact for holding or gaining both House and Senate? Or should we follow analyses similar to Len's and donate directly to individual candidates ourselves (which we've all done I'm sure, but I've always wondered about broader strategic impact)
Your question is my question, Keith. Thanks. I have taken the approach of donating or writing postcards, etc based on individual candidates. But I have always wondered whether the organized Democratic committees are up to the task.
Can anyone provide an answer to Keith with any confidence in the party apparatus?
Hi John. With regards to grassroots work, I participate in my local Wilmington, DE Indivisible group. Our leaders, in coordination with Indivisible national, help direct our work (postcard writing, canvassing, etc etc) to the most impactful races (both within DE and across the US) and in the 3 yrs I've been involved, we have a very high success rate, I guess because we go after races where we think we can make an impact and that are reachable. So I feel pretty good re. putting in work. What I was wondering about, as perhaps you are, is donations to the huge myriad of candidates across the USA asking for our money. Like many of us, I've donated to individual candidates, but have wondered about maximizing strategic impact (without inappropriately starving any deserving candidate). Hope my DNC donations are finding their way to the "best" races, but would like to hear others' thoughts....
I have zero love lost for Manchin. He has not been a reliable support of Democratic positions, and starting fresh with a new
candidate that the powers-that-be will put the machinery behind is a good opportunity. But doesn’t his plan to cross the country trying to unite people
scream an intention to run for president. The last thing we need to waste resources fending off--but right on brand for Manchin to make things difficult for no good reason.
Susan, First, I would note, in my view, that no Democrat but Manchin conceivably could win a statewide election in increasingly red West Virginia. Second, because Manchin has lost the support of much of his voter base, I expect he understood he likely couldn’t hold his seat. My point is that our engagement likely would be more productive were we to focus on holding currently vulnerable seats for Jackie Rosen (Nevada), Sherrod Brown (Ohio), and Jon Tester (Montana). That would give us 49 Democrats who, at the very least, support filibuster reform. Presuming we hold the White House, we would need only to flip one Republican seat to reach the requisite 50–a tall order I realize but essential, in my view, as part of our 24 campaign. As for Manchin, because his decision-making is out of our hands, I don’t believe we can afford to spend any calories on him, at least not yet.
Jon Tester has already started his reelection campaign. He has great ads. He has already defeated Rosendale who might come in at the last minute. Tim Sheehy is running as military veteran. However, Tester has been on the VA committee for years and has not even begun to play that card.
Love your message, Barbara. I do think Sherrod Brown got a boost from Tuesday's election, and he is loved by Democrats in the state. Hopefully, the Republican threats to fight against Tuesday's decision will damage Republicans in 2024
Agreed, but I have to say that what I lose sleep over is the possibility that not only Manchin, who cannot think of enough ways to screw Democrats; but also No Labels, if Manchin does not join forces with them; Green Party; and RFK, will split the vote and hand the election to Trump, either in close states like PA, where I live, or in the House. Hopefully Robert can talk us off that ledge…
Analysis elsewhere indicates that Kennedy will take votes from Trump; most voters don't yet know enough about him and are going strictly on name recognition.
He is a crazy man. Once people get a better understanding of who he is (nothing like his forebears), he will eliminate himself as someone who can take Democratic votes away from Biden. Great news that he could take votes from Trump!
ANN, Factors we haven’t even considered, several over which we won’t have control, will emerge over the next 12 months. While we will need to track them, mostly our focus, in my view, must remain on engaging in actions to win elections up and down the ballot. For me, the key is ensuring our candidates represent the interests of a wide range of people situated between the extremes.
Still feel it's too early to give up hope & agree with Robert that testing a strong, pro-abortion rights candidate might yield surprising results. Not suggesting at the cost of more winnable red states, but worth some exploration first.
Manchin's resignation is not good. On the other hand, given his unreliability, it might be a good thing. We might lose that seat. So. We just have to flip another seat to make up for it! Will it be easy? Hah! But with hard work, we will do it. Just like we've been overachiever for several years! Message to the media (with fingers in ears): "lalalalalalala!!"
Other than Tester in Montana and Sherrod Brown in Ohio, both Democrats who represent red states, the Senate is now pretty much dividing itself along ideological state-based lines, which is why there is a real threat that the Senate could become Republican territory long-term until Democrats are able to compete successfully in red state America. Right now, the Cook Report lists the 12 Republican-held Senate seats up in 2024 as 10 are "solid Republican" and two are "lean Republican." Of the 20 Democratic-held Senate seats that are in play in 2024, both Tester and Brown are listed as highly threatened. If they can be held, that would put us back to the 50-50 Senate that Democrats would only control if Biden-Harris are re-elected in 2024.
At least in 2024, unless something changes to give a pro-choice Democrat a chance - and if a high-quality candidate can be found to take on such a long shot campaign - there aren't any seats to flip from R to D. Given the state of the Democratic Party in West Virginia, it's unlikely there is a high-quality pro-choice Democrat to run for Manchin's now-open seat.
Manchin saw the writing on the wall; there was no way he could defeat Jim Justice in WV. As far as a pro-choice candidate there, that’s going to make two hurdles to climb; running on reproductive rights would be unpopular in that state and Justice is extremely popular. I'm far more concerned that his not running for re-election signals the long rumored Larry Hogan-Manchin No Labels ticket for the Presidency.
This is what worries me—-an attempt to take votes from Biden if Manchin runs on the No Labels ticket. I think this is especially likely given the fact that Manchin has historically tied himself to BIG MONEY—especially money from the fossil fuel industry. Beware the Trojan Horse!
Likely but what if….people who lean GOP and worried about DT not winning because of his legal troubles, etc, put their vote on Manchin? No smart Dem would vote for him knowing his voting record. That scenario would be good for Biden!??
Janet is correct; it’s the unpredictability of third-party and independent candidates. Cornel West and RFK Jr. are already running. Add a Hogan-Manchin ticket, and who knows what will happen.
Robert's point today nails it. It's all about pushing through the burnout. Of course, many of us are depending on those who are pushing through it, hoping they will remain strong and rescue us from Wonderland! And we thank those strong, persevering angels!
An anti-MAGA majority exists in each of the battleground states, and our task is to convince them to once again participate in a crucial election where the future of democracy is at stake.
Also a good post, TC. It strikes me that your thoughts and information mean we must put the long game in our plans. Ever since Howard Dean I’ve believed we need a “50 State strategy” as well as a realistic effort to make the best of immediate opportunities.
We have done amazingly well in recent elections. Let’s keep that focus, message to local concerns and build bridges.
Denise, Given that West Virginia continues to turn increasingly red and that Manchin increasingly has lost the support of much of his voter base, I expect he understood he likely didn’t have a shot at holding his Senate seat. I, further, expect the real threat (if we choose to view it as such) is the conceivable possibility of Manchin running as No Label’s purported centrist candidate for President.
This is a very real possibility and one we should be preparing for right now. The American people need to be educated about the No Labels party and it’s agenda and funding sources!
Alice, Were one to track down all of Manchin’s funding sources, along with other “No Labels” affiliates, I imagine that would provide a good start towards sensing who finances “No Labels” and, in turn, much of its agenda.
Yes; re the No Labels – the American people need to be educated, ok, get outcha grassroots text books cause the main stream media isn’t going to help with that.
What does it mean to say that a state is increasingly red? Are people being converted from Democrat to Republican? No! So it must mean that Democrats are moving to civilization, and/or that the local Democratic Party is not doing its job.
I think the mechanism underlying “moving from blue to red” or the opposite centers on undecideds and Independents. On the national level, at least, polls have consistently shown that self-identified Independents are approximately as numerous as Democrats or Republicans.
Aside from turning out the party faithful on Election Day, capturing Independents will likely be the route to electoral victory.
Jon, I simply meant, starting in 2000, that, in what had been a reliably Democratic WV since the 30s, Republicans started winning by increasing margins in each election. I attribute this trend to multiple contributing factors.
After reading Today’s Edition I realized I was not alone in feeling close to being burned out because everyday it’s a battle to protect Democracy and my state of mind. Professionally when I felt this way I took a “ time out” and spent the time doing two things. One was to contemplate what was accomplished and rejoice in how good that felt and secondly spent time planning where I was going to spend time going forward. Mid terms are over and we need to recharge our batteries for 2024 so we should use this time to celebrate the holidays with friends and family and be prepared to hit the ground the first of the year. Sometimes in life it pays to stop and let things play out without immediately reacting and this is one of those times.
Stephen, you are exactly right. We need the breather the Tuesday landslide is affording us. Take it without guilt. Restore our batteries to jumpstart the 2024 efforts early next year.
With the little left in our gas tanks, we can all call our respective congresspersons to reiterate our serious concerns about the funding stalemate. Mine knows my voice by now!! It will be a short conversation💕
I have no doubt manchin will have access to millions of campaign dollars from fossil fuel interests. every republican candidate will repeal the Biden clean energy initiatives. they will do everything possible to get Biden/Harris out of power.
we are in France now for another week. Europeans count on U.S. democracy to exist and lead democratic nations of the world. people I spoke to are scared.
it is so important for us to have a unified strategic discussion about messaging and building coalitions.
Not contesting Senate seats in every state on the issue of women’s reproductive rights is a mistake. It is an overwhelming issue for 55% of the voters-women. And most men oppose the GOP banning abortion. Howard Dean contested in every state when he chaired the Democratic National Committee. When Obama was elected he stopped doing that and lost everywhere. Democrats have an issue that should be pressed everywhere because the majority of voters agree with the Democratic position. Witness the red states where Democrats won because of the issue: Ohio, Missouri, Kansas, Kentucky.
It was repeatedly stated by several TV political commentators in the past few days after these "pro choice" election results, that when the abortion issue is raised, it must be linked to the broader issues of this current Republican Party's very visible obsession with ONE: taking away several long guaranteed freedoms from all Americans and TWO: taking away our Democracy.
If that message doesn't resonate with a vast majority of Americans, nothing will.
C C, Thank you so much for amplifying the importance of linking the abortion issue to the broader longstanding freedoms we would be denied were the current Republican agenda to be enacted. I, too, will amplify this malfeasant intent at every juncture.
Robert’s past several newsletters have prompted me to comment on a group of subscribers to Heather Cox Richardson’s LFAA (Letters from an American) Substack who are engaged in a project for a nationwide march for democracy on July 4th. The action tentatively is titled “Rise Uo For Democracy Before It’s Too Late.” The group envisions the main event taking place in Washington D.C. on the morning of July 4th from 9:00 to 12:00 ET. Additionally, it foresees other marches across the country, perhaps embedded in existing parades and holiday events.
The March would be a call to action: uniting, inspiring, and energizing people, who know we are under threat, to commit to participating in saving our democracy and also, hopefully, waking up those asleep to the necessity and urgency. In addition to reaching out to find partners, like yourselves, to assist in bringing this event to fruition, the group also is at the stage of reaching out to standout figures, like Robert, to help bring recognition to this project.
Anyone who is interested in pursuing this work with us can write to…. This is an address I no longer use though it still picks up messages. I won’t remove it from this forum’s Comment Section for at least 24 hours.
LH, My pleasure, particularly seeing we’re largely focused on spreading the word expressly to those who might be in contact with the “standout” figures I had mentioned who would be integral to bringing recognition to this project.
Robert, you went far and beyond the call of duty when I mentioned “burn out”! Thank you for putting together this forum. I am going to reach out to a friend of mine who is managing our old Indivisible Facebook page. Perhaps she will join. Thanks again!
I learned some time ago not to push to stay in a relationship with someone who does not love me. I suggest we keep that thinking in our collective back pockets when we worry about the loss of Joe Manchin. Hangin out with that guy… GEZZUZ… every time you needed him he didn’t come through! In the language of the arts: you can’t count on him for sh!t
It's funny (i.e., sickening) how legal institutions (i.e. some of them) approach the interpretation of a state's ability to deny Trump a place on their ballot on the grounds he has proven himself unwilling to abide the oath to uphold our democracy. While they choose to conjure up seemingly sensible reasons to deny the impact of the legal basis for removing him from the ballot, he openly mocks our constitution by declaring publicly his intention to resort to fascist control of the FBI and DOJ and seek to imprison his opponents if reelected. We must be in Alice's Wonderland! The "courts" will prevent the sensible people from protecting themselves against this maniac and the people who thirst after the blood of American democracy. That this is Alice's Wonderland is the only thing that explains it!
As a 90 year old retired vet i spent this year as a Precinct Leader with limited success though i hope i sowed some seeds so i turned to letter writing to Virginians just wrote 100 but felt happy with the outcome. I will write either 1000 postcards and or letters for 2024. I'm definitely fired up not burned out: GO DEMS !!!
Burnout is definitely a concern, and the constant drumbeats of President Biden's age and the focus on his every challenge while ignoring any of his successes is wearing. This newsletter and community, as well as Jess Craven's Chop Wood, Carry Water and Dan Rather's Steady are my antidotes to despair.
I just reached out to Seniors Taking Action. I've been doing my own thing from my very blue state, but camaraderie is what I need most. I hope to meet some of you there.
So glad you did Robbie. Someone will get back to you as soon as we can. You hit the nail on the head with how we feel about working with each other and attending the zooms. Even from afar we have gotten to know each other well.
I've read a number of books, listened to podcasts recently, where leaders and long-time activists talk about burnout. Some of the solutions -- which I know your veteran activists will discuss -- are straightforward: take time off, rotate tasks, collaborate to spread the work and the emotional toll. As a volunteer for decades, I think about animal rescue folks whose work is unceasing, dirty, hard to fund even to basic-survival levels, and devastatingly emotionally difficult on a daily basis. There are whole workshops devoted to rescue and shelter staff who can no longer deal with the necessity of their having to personally and daily euthanize perfectly healthy animals. I have no novel solutions to this problem; if you throw yourself body and soul into something that has significant downsides, you're going to burn-out unless you're really really intentional about self-care and are lucky enough to have some organizational flexibility. I wonder what Doctors Without Borders does with this problem, since they're always in such horrific environments and with never-ending crises??
I wonder also if, rather than thinking you're going to solve or fix things, you try to see it as on ongoing job, because it is really, and focus on the tasks and not on the outcome or the rewards. One foot in front of the other. A kind of cognitive shift.
I've read about that, too; you're absolutely right, I think. Very hard to do, though, because of the high emotional involvement. If we could all regulate our emotions (which would make us really weird humans, I suspect), then we could sort of compartmentalize or defer them and, as you suggest, just focus in on the task. There is something useful to be found in the today-is-the-only-day-you-have outlook in many religions. If you even get a little bit more able to do that, surely it would help.
Thank you for such a fine example of a burnout inducing environment. FYI, I’m one of the leaders of a local Indivisible group. I want to key on your mention of organizational flexibility. A few thoughts on that:
Redundancy. Organizations need redundancy for key positions. You don’t want to rely on only one information technology person, for instance. They may be your lead expert, but you’ll want to backstop them with others who can do/assist with parts of their essential job.
Enough people. Many hands make light work. Recruiting and maintaining team members is important, but it’s not always possible.
Alliances. There may be similar organizations locally and statewide. Our local Indivisible group collaborates with another Indivisible in our congressional district to meet with the staff of our member of Congress. Our statewide Indivisible organization meets monthly to report on efforts and offer each other support.
Trusted colleagues. Over the years, although our local Indivisible chapter has suffered attrition from people aging out, burning out or focusing on other life endeavors, we remain in touch with each other. We now have trusted colleagues we have known over the years, and we know we can rely on each other to get key tasks done.
Personalities and character. Our core group consists of people who, for the most part, leave their egos at the door. The ability to do so requires good emotional regulation and the wisdom to not react too quickly based on overwhelming emotion. Character also shows itself in taking ownership of tasks so others can count on them being completed on time. And if an obstacle arises to doing so, we reach out to others for help so we don’t drop the ball.
Making right-sized commitments. Underpromise and overdeliver, when possible, and avoid the opposite.
Know when to hold them or fold them (a poker metaphor). If an organizational attrition leads to insufficient membership or skillsets to function effectively, know when to close it down, otherwise it’s a setup for burnout. Individual activists can turn their contributions elsewhere.
These comments are off the top of my head. Maybe others can add more organizational principles to this list.
That's a really impressive and heartwarming description of how to -- actually, more like, how to build and sustain a community. I'm so glad you know what you're doing; I'm not a good 'people person' and I'm in awe and great respect for those who are. I mean, after all, that's our most important resource, right?
Re “I wonder what Doctors Without Borders does with this problem, since they're always in such horrific environments and with never-ending crises??” –
I don’t know about Doctors Without Borders, but I can pass along what my late father-in-law, an outstanding gastroenterologist with, partially, general practice, said. Asked how he could wade into a blood and gore situation, he replied that you ignore the mess and focus on what you can do to help out.
I just signed up for the Grassroots Leaders Forum -- a great idea! -- on behalf of the Collaboration Project, an initiative of 70+ leaders of grassroots groups in 12 states launched in late August. The Collaboration Project's goal is to strategically connect and support grassroots leaders in our critical work in 2024. We have already begun offering phonebank organizer training and a meeting to establish ties among the largest postcarding groups nationwide, with working groups on additional issues about to launch now that the VA election is behind us. To learn more, including to list your group in the Directory we're building, write to Julie Greenberg, julie.collaborationproject@gmail.com
pinning to the top for other grassroots leaders to see and sign up!
David Pepper’s map of the bigger picture is a good antidote for the burnout so many are experiencing. Rally our numbers to share the load. People take a break to re-energize and then get back in there. File lawsuits and initiatives for fair redistricting, support Dem candidates in all races, register voters, and get out the vote! Keep building our blue wave! 💙🌊
David Pepper’s books:
Laboratories of Autocracy
Saving Democracy
Thank you, Robert, for organizing this organizational refresher!
The state of play for the US Senate -- taking account funds as of Oct 1 and the most recent poll (October unless otherwise mentioned)
1. Before he withdrew, Joe Manchin, despite his $11+ M, was behind Jim Justice by 13 points. He was the most vulnerable Democratic Senator.
2. The only other race in which a Democrat was behind was NJ. If Menendez were the nominee, he was 3 points behind Chris Christie (not that Christie is running). Andy Kim, on the other hand, was 26 points ahead of Chris Christie. Kim only had $1.9 M on 10/1. If he gets an opponent, he'll need a lot more.
3. The most recent poll for Tammy Baldwin in WI was from May. She was 1 point ahead of Congressman Mike Gallagher who has been clear that he is not running. She had $6.8 million and, so far, no serious opponent.
4. Jon Tester of MT was 4 points ahead of Tim Sheehy. He had $13 M to Sheehy's $1.3 M.
5. Rep Reuben Gallego of AZ was 4 or 5 points ahead of Kari Lake in a 2 person race or a 3 person race. Gallego had $5 M, Lake reported no money, and Sinema was consistently 3rd in a 3 person race, but had $10.7 M if she really wants to spend it on a futile race.
6. Rep Elissa Slotkin of MI was 5 points ahead of ex Rep Mike Rogers. She reported $5.1 M to his less than $1 M.
7. Jacky Rosen of NV was 5 points ahead of Sam Brown. She reported $8.8 M and he reported $1 M
8. Bab Casey Jr of PA was 6 points ahead of David McCormick. Casey reported $7.3 M, McCormick had just begun.
9. Sherrod Brown of OH had 3 possible opponents. Against the closest, he was 13 points ahead. He had $11.2 M. Two of his opponents had $5 M or more.
This is not intended to encourage complacency. Even without WV, Democrats, if we can re-elect Jo Biden, can feel a little confidence about the Senate -- if we keep giving money and writing postcards and volunteering. Remember, the billionaires will give their campaigns plenty of money. We can even think about flipping some seats.
1. In FL, the last poll in June showed Rick Scott defeating Phil Ehr by 4 points. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (who had no real opposition for the nomination) began October with only $1M, Scott had $3 M (though he can add millions whenever).
2. In MO, Hawley was leading Lucas Kunce by 4 points. Hawley had $4.7 M, Kunce only $1.7 M
3. in TX, the last poll in May showed Ted Cruz defeating Colin Allred by 5 points. Allred began October with $7.9 M, Cruz with $5.7 M.
The Democrats have at least as strong a chance of flipping a Republican seat as Republicans have of flipping a seat other than West Virginia. But only if you give money, write postcards, and volunteer in other ways.
Good stuff but Democrats in these states need to give Republicans a reason to vote Democratic which means we need to refine our messages and make them more local and pointed. We also need to provide financial support.
Exactly! Thanks Stephen.
This is a great post about where we stand in the Senate, Leonard. I'm all in for donating and postcarding.
Great. Follow my Newsletter: Len's Political Notes for others to donate to. https://lenspoliticalnotes.com
Lucas Kunce in Missouri is a good candidate and has the credentials to flip the state blue if that’s possible. Still, the discrepancy in their campaign funds is concerning.
I agree about the chance that Kunce could beat Hawley, provided that he gets support from a united Democratic party now that Wesley Bell has withdrawn from the race and, of course, the financial support needed to have an effective campaign. He had a solid chance against Schmitt until Trudy Valentine jumped in out of nowhere to be a spoiler.
Leonard, this is a very good post with the type of information we need as we plan for 2024 with the best use of our resources - both $$ and time. I would welcome more such data and concurrently want to push the envelope to find “red” states or vulnerable Republican candidates who can be flipped.
Also, Robert urges us to ignore polls and $$s can’t be the only measure of our potential success. Nevertheless, your post is an excellent beginning. Let’s do well by quality candidates, identify them and the issues/messaging that can make a difference. Then, let’s target elections to grow our numbers in the House and Senate.
Obviously, you put a lot of work into this post and it is helpful. What are other good sources to identify opportunities and plow new ground? For example, with Robert’s report today might we begin to look at Republican House members from Ohio who can be flipped. Perhaps do the same in Kentucky or Virginia? (Yes, that requires we recognize some like Jim Jordan might be safe gerrymandered districts. But in the long game Eric Holder’s effort to confront gerrymandering might be worth supporting or engaging.)
My bottom line is aligned with your post. Let’s make plans. Let’s be smart. Let’s use good metrics and messages. Let’s beat back the burnout and direct our energies to inspire voters.
We can do this. Thank you very much for this detailed report.
Len, Ehr has dropped out of the race against Rick ( 11 point Rescue NOT!) Scott to run for a Fl House seat. One can dream in the sunshine state 😎for a Debbie Mucarasel-Powell win.
She only needs 💰💰💰 as Rick Scott is not the most popular guy.
💙 Len’s political notes !
https://lenspoliticalnotes.com/lens-political-note-597-debbie-mucarsel-powell-florida-senator/
We need to do something in Florida as our messaging to Latinos is not winning, apparently. This has been going on for years now, even before Trump won Latino votes in 2020!
My strong impression from my reading is that--probably among other things--Latinos think there is too much immigration. Some of that may be in here:
https://substack.com/inbox/post/137887616
More of that probably in here
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/22/briefing/sedition-miami-beach-curfew-astrazeneca.html
Thanks for the link Kathy! I’m passing it on (with credit to you here at Robert’s Substack😊)
This post is very hopeful about Florida and shows where we should put our money in many other races. Thanks so much, Len!
Thanks for the analysis. Do you all feel that straightforward donations to the DNC will lead to them directing funds to those Congressional races that are of best strategic success probability and impact for holding or gaining both House and Senate? Or should we follow analyses similar to Len's and donate directly to individual candidates ourselves (which we've all done I'm sure, but I've always wondered about broader strategic impact)
Your question is my question, Keith. Thanks. I have taken the approach of donating or writing postcards, etc based on individual candidates. But I have always wondered whether the organized Democratic committees are up to the task.
Can anyone provide an answer to Keith with any confidence in the party apparatus?
Hi John. With regards to grassroots work, I participate in my local Wilmington, DE Indivisible group. Our leaders, in coordination with Indivisible national, help direct our work (postcard writing, canvassing, etc etc) to the most impactful races (both within DE and across the US) and in the 3 yrs I've been involved, we have a very high success rate, I guess because we go after races where we think we can make an impact and that are reachable. So I feel pretty good re. putting in work. What I was wondering about, as perhaps you are, is donations to the huge myriad of candidates across the USA asking for our money. Like many of us, I've donated to individual candidates, but have wondered about maximizing strategic impact (without inappropriately starving any deserving candidate). Hope my DNC donations are finding their way to the "best" races, but would like to hear others' thoughts....
I have zero love lost for Manchin. He has not been a reliable support of Democratic positions, and starting fresh with a new
candidate that the powers-that-be will put the machinery behind is a good opportunity. But doesn’t his plan to cross the country trying to unite people
scream an intention to run for president. The last thing we need to waste resources fending off--but right on brand for Manchin to make things difficult for no good reason.
Susan, First, I would note, in my view, that no Democrat but Manchin conceivably could win a statewide election in increasingly red West Virginia. Second, because Manchin has lost the support of much of his voter base, I expect he understood he likely couldn’t hold his seat. My point is that our engagement likely would be more productive were we to focus on holding currently vulnerable seats for Jackie Rosen (Nevada), Sherrod Brown (Ohio), and Jon Tester (Montana). That would give us 49 Democrats who, at the very least, support filibuster reform. Presuming we hold the White House, we would need only to flip one Republican seat to reach the requisite 50–a tall order I realize but essential, in my view, as part of our 24 campaign. As for Manchin, because his decision-making is out of our hands, I don’t believe we can afford to spend any calories on him, at least not yet.
An excellent point. We need to focus on winnable senate elections not long shots.
Jon Tester has already started his reelection campaign. He has great ads. He has already defeated Rosendale who might come in at the last minute. Tim Sheehy is running as military veteran. However, Tester has been on the VA committee for years and has not even begun to play that card.
Ed, I agree that Tester is well-positioned, and, thus, worth investing in to ensure he has everything he needs to keep his seat next November.
Love your message, Barbara. I do think Sherrod Brown got a boost from Tuesday's election, and he is loved by Democrats in the state. Hopefully, the Republican threats to fight against Tuesday's decision will damage Republicans in 2024
Kathleen, I agree with your assessment and, thus, view contributing to Brown to help ensure he holds his seat a great investment.
Totally agree. No Dem is going to win in WV for the foreseeable future, and that’s a bad place to spend resources.
Agreed, but I have to say that what I lose sleep over is the possibility that not only Manchin, who cannot think of enough ways to screw Democrats; but also No Labels, if Manchin does not join forces with them; Green Party; and RFK, will split the vote and hand the election to Trump, either in close states like PA, where I live, or in the House. Hopefully Robert can talk us off that ledge…
Analysis elsewhere indicates that Kennedy will take votes from Trump; most voters don't yet know enough about him and are going strictly on name recognition.
He is a crazy man. Once people get a better understanding of who he is (nothing like his forebears), he will eliminate himself as someone who can take Democratic votes away from Biden. Great news that he could take votes from Trump!
ANN, Factors we haven’t even considered, several over which we won’t have control, will emerge over the next 12 months. While we will need to track them, mostly our focus, in my view, must remain on engaging in actions to win elections up and down the ballot. For me, the key is ensuring our candidates represent the interests of a wide range of people situated between the extremes.
Still feel it's too early to give up hope & agree with Robert that testing a strong, pro-abortion rights candidate might yield surprising results. Not suggesting at the cost of more winnable red states, but worth some exploration first.
See my comment!
Manchin's resignation is not good. On the other hand, given his unreliability, it might be a good thing. We might lose that seat. So. We just have to flip another seat to make up for it! Will it be easy? Hah! But with hard work, we will do it. Just like we've been overachiever for several years! Message to the media (with fingers in ears): "lalalalalalala!!"
Other than Tester in Montana and Sherrod Brown in Ohio, both Democrats who represent red states, the Senate is now pretty much dividing itself along ideological state-based lines, which is why there is a real threat that the Senate could become Republican territory long-term until Democrats are able to compete successfully in red state America. Right now, the Cook Report lists the 12 Republican-held Senate seats up in 2024 as 10 are "solid Republican" and two are "lean Republican." Of the 20 Democratic-held Senate seats that are in play in 2024, both Tester and Brown are listed as highly threatened. If they can be held, that would put us back to the 50-50 Senate that Democrats would only control if Biden-Harris are re-elected in 2024.
At least in 2024, unless something changes to give a pro-choice Democrat a chance - and if a high-quality candidate can be found to take on such a long shot campaign - there aren't any seats to flip from R to D. Given the state of the Democratic Party in West Virginia, it's unlikely there is a high-quality pro-choice Democrat to run for Manchin's now-open seat.
Colin Allred—veteran and former NFL linebacker—is a terrific candidate to knock off terrible Ted Cruz.
From your mouth to God's ears!
Manchin saw the writing on the wall; there was no way he could defeat Jim Justice in WV. As far as a pro-choice candidate there, that’s going to make two hurdles to climb; running on reproductive rights would be unpopular in that state and Justice is extremely popular. I'm far more concerned that his not running for re-election signals the long rumored Larry Hogan-Manchin No Labels ticket for the Presidency.
This is what worries me—-an attempt to take votes from Biden if Manchin runs on the No Labels ticket. I think this is especially likely given the fact that Manchin has historically tied himself to BIG MONEY—especially money from the fossil fuel industry. Beware the Trojan Horse!
That’s the first thing that came to my mind when I heard the announcement yesterday about Manchin.
Likely but what if….people who lean GOP and worried about DT not winning because of his legal troubles, etc, put their vote on Manchin? No smart Dem would vote for him knowing his voting record. That scenario would be good for Biden!??
It’s so hard to predict these things. There’s also the RFK Jr. factor, and I actually think he might draw Republicans away from Trump.
Janet is correct; it’s the unpredictability of third-party and independent candidates. Cornel West and RFK Jr. are already running. Add a Hogan-Manchin ticket, and who knows what will happen.
Yikes!
There is no Justice in West Virginia.
True dat! :-)
We can hope to work hard and wake up after the 2024 election to victory. It's happened before. Including recently. 😊
I agree with you, Janet, but I take TC's point that it won't be easy. But what of the last few years has been easy!!
Robert's point today nails it. It's all about pushing through the burnout. Of course, many of us are depending on those who are pushing through it, hoping they will remain strong and rescue us from Wonderland! And we thank those strong, persevering angels!
An anti-MAGA majority exists in each of the battleground states, and our task is to convince them to once again participate in a crucial election where the future of democracy is at stake.
Yes Stephen, but as noted earlier we need to message to local concerns and not rely solely on saving democracy. Thanks.
Also a good post, TC. It strikes me that your thoughts and information mean we must put the long game in our plans. Ever since Howard Dean I’ve believed we need a “50 State strategy” as well as a realistic effort to make the best of immediate opportunities.
We have done amazingly well in recent elections. Let’s keep that focus, message to local concerns and build bridges.
Thanks.
Denise, Given that West Virginia continues to turn increasingly red and that Manchin increasingly has lost the support of much of his voter base, I expect he understood he likely didn’t have a shot at holding his Senate seat. I, further, expect the real threat (if we choose to view it as such) is the conceivable possibility of Manchin running as No Label’s purported centrist candidate for President.
This is a very real possibility and one we should be preparing for right now. The American people need to be educated about the No Labels party and it’s agenda and funding sources!
Alice, Were one to track down all of Manchin’s funding sources, along with other “No Labels” affiliates, I imagine that would provide a good start towards sensing who finances “No Labels” and, in turn, much of its agenda.
Yes; re the No Labels – the American people need to be educated, ok, get outcha grassroots text books cause the main stream media isn’t going to help with that.
Actually, "No Labels'''s LACK of providing their sources of funding that's the problem.
Barbara, As I stated, one can track funding sources for “No Labels” affiliates at least partially to infer who’s funding “No Labels.
What does it mean to say that a state is increasingly red? Are people being converted from Democrat to Republican? No! So it must mean that Democrats are moving to civilization, and/or that the local Democratic Party is not doing its job.
I think the mechanism underlying “moving from blue to red” or the opposite centers on undecideds and Independents. On the national level, at least, polls have consistently shown that self-identified Independents are approximately as numerous as Democrats or Republicans.
Aside from turning out the party faithful on Election Day, capturing Independents will likely be the route to electoral victory.
Jon, I simply meant, starting in 2000, that, in what had been a reliably Democratic WV since the 30s, Republicans started winning by increasing margins in each election. I attribute this trend to multiple contributing factors.
After reading Today’s Edition I realized I was not alone in feeling close to being burned out because everyday it’s a battle to protect Democracy and my state of mind. Professionally when I felt this way I took a “ time out” and spent the time doing two things. One was to contemplate what was accomplished and rejoice in how good that felt and secondly spent time planning where I was going to spend time going forward. Mid terms are over and we need to recharge our batteries for 2024 so we should use this time to celebrate the holidays with friends and family and be prepared to hit the ground the first of the year. Sometimes in life it pays to stop and let things play out without immediately reacting and this is one of those times.
Stephen, you are exactly right. We need the breather the Tuesday landslide is affording us. Take it without guilt. Restore our batteries to jumpstart the 2024 efforts early next year.
With the little left in our gas tanks, we can all call our respective congresspersons to reiterate our serious concerns about the funding stalemate. Mine knows my voice by now!! It will be a short conversation💕
I have no doubt manchin will have access to millions of campaign dollars from fossil fuel interests. every republican candidate will repeal the Biden clean energy initiatives. they will do everything possible to get Biden/Harris out of power.
we are in France now for another week. Europeans count on U.S. democracy to exist and lead democratic nations of the world. people I spoke to are scared.
it is so important for us to have a unified strategic discussion about messaging and building coalitions.
Agree because it’s the coalitions that win the day.
Absolutely! Who is or is going to organize and lead that strategic discussion? It is so important.
Hi I am a trauma psychologist
I can offer a few free meetings w a burned out grass roots leader to help with the burnout
I may be able to locate other therapists who can offer this free service as well
Dr sue grand
Drsuegrandphd@gmail.com
Thanks, I will reach out to you.
Not contesting Senate seats in every state on the issue of women’s reproductive rights is a mistake. It is an overwhelming issue for 55% of the voters-women. And most men oppose the GOP banning abortion. Howard Dean contested in every state when he chaired the Democratic National Committee. When Obama was elected he stopped doing that and lost everywhere. Democrats have an issue that should be pressed everywhere because the majority of voters agree with the Democratic position. Witness the red states where Democrats won because of the issue: Ohio, Missouri, Kansas, Kentucky.
Just an addition to your message if I may:
It was repeatedly stated by several TV political commentators in the past few days after these "pro choice" election results, that when the abortion issue is raised, it must be linked to the broader issues of this current Republican Party's very visible obsession with ONE: taking away several long guaranteed freedoms from all Americans and TWO: taking away our Democracy.
If that message doesn't resonate with a vast majority of Americans, nothing will.
C C, Thank you so much for amplifying the importance of linking the abortion issue to the broader longstanding freedoms we would be denied were the current Republican agenda to be enacted. I, too, will amplify this malfeasant intent at every juncture.
Definitely agree
Robert’s past several newsletters have prompted me to comment on a group of subscribers to Heather Cox Richardson’s LFAA (Letters from an American) Substack who are engaged in a project for a nationwide march for democracy on July 4th. The action tentatively is titled “Rise Uo For Democracy Before It’s Too Late.” The group envisions the main event taking place in Washington D.C. on the morning of July 4th from 9:00 to 12:00 ET. Additionally, it foresees other marches across the country, perhaps embedded in existing parades and holiday events.
The March would be a call to action: uniting, inspiring, and energizing people, who know we are under threat, to commit to participating in saving our democracy and also, hopefully, waking up those asleep to the necessity and urgency. In addition to reaching out to find partners, like yourselves, to assist in bringing this event to fruition, the group also is at the stage of reaching out to standout figures, like Robert, to help bring recognition to this project.
Anyone who is interested in pursuing this work with us can write to…. This is an address I no longer use though it still picks up messages. I won’t remove it from this forum’s Comment Section for at least 24 hours.
Thanks for bringing this to more attention.
LH, My pleasure, particularly seeing we’re largely focused on spreading the word expressly to those who might be in contact with the “standout” figures I had mentioned who would be integral to bringing recognition to this project.
Robert, you went far and beyond the call of duty when I mentioned “burn out”! Thank you for putting together this forum. I am going to reach out to a friend of mine who is managing our old Indivisible Facebook page. Perhaps she will join. Thanks again!
I learned some time ago not to push to stay in a relationship with someone who does not love me. I suggest we keep that thinking in our collective back pockets when we worry about the loss of Joe Manchin. Hangin out with that guy… GEZZUZ… every time you needed him he didn’t come through! In the language of the arts: you can’t count on him for sh!t
It's funny (i.e., sickening) how legal institutions (i.e. some of them) approach the interpretation of a state's ability to deny Trump a place on their ballot on the grounds he has proven himself unwilling to abide the oath to uphold our democracy. While they choose to conjure up seemingly sensible reasons to deny the impact of the legal basis for removing him from the ballot, he openly mocks our constitution by declaring publicly his intention to resort to fascist control of the FBI and DOJ and seek to imprison his opponents if reelected. We must be in Alice's Wonderland! The "courts" will prevent the sensible people from protecting themselves against this maniac and the people who thirst after the blood of American democracy. That this is Alice's Wonderland is the only thing that explains it!
Perhaps it helps to let the MAGA folks know we are going to just stand by and watch liars and unstable people like TFG take us down.
As a 90 year old retired vet i spent this year as a Precinct Leader with limited success though i hope i sowed some seeds so i turned to letter writing to Virginians just wrote 100 but felt happy with the outcome. I will write either 1000 postcards and or letters for 2024. I'm definitely fired up not burned out: GO DEMS !!!
Burnout is definitely a concern, and the constant drumbeats of President Biden's age and the focus on his every challenge while ignoring any of his successes is wearing. This newsletter and community, as well as Jess Craven's Chop Wood, Carry Water and Dan Rather's Steady are my antidotes to despair.
I just reached out to Seniors Taking Action. I've been doing my own thing from my very blue state, but camaraderie is what I need most. I hope to meet some of you there.
So glad you did Robbie. Someone will get back to you as soon as we can. You hit the nail on the head with how we feel about working with each other and attending the zooms. Even from afar we have gotten to know each other well.
Ilene Freedman. NC Coodinator for STA
I've read a number of books, listened to podcasts recently, where leaders and long-time activists talk about burnout. Some of the solutions -- which I know your veteran activists will discuss -- are straightforward: take time off, rotate tasks, collaborate to spread the work and the emotional toll. As a volunteer for decades, I think about animal rescue folks whose work is unceasing, dirty, hard to fund even to basic-survival levels, and devastatingly emotionally difficult on a daily basis. There are whole workshops devoted to rescue and shelter staff who can no longer deal with the necessity of their having to personally and daily euthanize perfectly healthy animals. I have no novel solutions to this problem; if you throw yourself body and soul into something that has significant downsides, you're going to burn-out unless you're really really intentional about self-care and are lucky enough to have some organizational flexibility. I wonder what Doctors Without Borders does with this problem, since they're always in such horrific environments and with never-ending crises??
I wonder also if, rather than thinking you're going to solve or fix things, you try to see it as on ongoing job, because it is really, and focus on the tasks and not on the outcome or the rewards. One foot in front of the other. A kind of cognitive shift.
I've read about that, too; you're absolutely right, I think. Very hard to do, though, because of the high emotional involvement. If we could all regulate our emotions (which would make us really weird humans, I suspect), then we could sort of compartmentalize or defer them and, as you suggest, just focus in on the task. There is something useful to be found in the today-is-the-only-day-you-have outlook in many religions. If you even get a little bit more able to do that, surely it would help.
Meredith,
Thank you for such a fine example of a burnout inducing environment. FYI, I’m one of the leaders of a local Indivisible group. I want to key on your mention of organizational flexibility. A few thoughts on that:
Redundancy. Organizations need redundancy for key positions. You don’t want to rely on only one information technology person, for instance. They may be your lead expert, but you’ll want to backstop them with others who can do/assist with parts of their essential job.
Enough people. Many hands make light work. Recruiting and maintaining team members is important, but it’s not always possible.
Alliances. There may be similar organizations locally and statewide. Our local Indivisible group collaborates with another Indivisible in our congressional district to meet with the staff of our member of Congress. Our statewide Indivisible organization meets monthly to report on efforts and offer each other support.
Trusted colleagues. Over the years, although our local Indivisible chapter has suffered attrition from people aging out, burning out or focusing on other life endeavors, we remain in touch with each other. We now have trusted colleagues we have known over the years, and we know we can rely on each other to get key tasks done.
Personalities and character. Our core group consists of people who, for the most part, leave their egos at the door. The ability to do so requires good emotional regulation and the wisdom to not react too quickly based on overwhelming emotion. Character also shows itself in taking ownership of tasks so others can count on them being completed on time. And if an obstacle arises to doing so, we reach out to others for help so we don’t drop the ball.
Making right-sized commitments. Underpromise and overdeliver, when possible, and avoid the opposite.
Know when to hold them or fold them (a poker metaphor). If an organizational attrition leads to insufficient membership or skillsets to function effectively, know when to close it down, otherwise it’s a setup for burnout. Individual activists can turn their contributions elsewhere.
These comments are off the top of my head. Maybe others can add more organizational principles to this list.
Excellent list. I'm saving it. Thank you!
That's a really impressive and heartwarming description of how to -- actually, more like, how to build and sustain a community. I'm so glad you know what you're doing; I'm not a good 'people person' and I'm in awe and great respect for those who are. I mean, after all, that's our most important resource, right?
Re “I wonder what Doctors Without Borders does with this problem, since they're always in such horrific environments and with never-ending crises??” –
I don’t know about Doctors Without Borders, but I can pass along what my late father-in-law, an outstanding gastroenterologist with, partially, general practice, said. Asked how he could wade into a blood and gore situation, he replied that you ignore the mess and focus on what you can do to help out.