Trusting our intincts.

November 10, 2023

          The silence from the House of Representatives should concern every American. The current stop-gap funding bill expires on November 17, 2023—only a week away. And under House rules, Speaker Johnson must provide 72 hours’ notice of any bill brought to the floor—which means he has four days to find a solution that will be palatable to Senate Democrats.

          I hope I am wrong in this assessment, but Speaker Mike Johnson resembles a deer-in-the-headlights rather than the person second in line to the presidency. Johnson does not appear to be working on Plans “A”, “B”, or “C.” Instead, he appears to be learning on the job that the GOP’s problem in the House is not the identity of the Speaker but the GOP itself. Per the NYTimes,

On Thursday, House G.O.P. leaders abruptly canceled a vote on a spending bill to fund the Treasury Department and other financial agencies, the latest indication of the deep divisions among Republicans over funding federal programs that have pushed Congress repeatedly to the brink of economic chaos this year. [¶¶]

Whether Mr. Johnson is willing to put forward a stopgap spending bill that Democrats can accept remains to be seen. That move ultimately doomed his predecessor as speaker, Kevin McCarthy, after it became clear he could not pass a temporary funding measure—even one with deep spending cuts—with only Republican votes.

Mr. Johnson is substantially to the right of Mr. McCarthy and so far seems intent on not leaning on Democrats to pass a funding bill.

          In other words, the government shutdown and the GOP’s next speakership election may merge into a single crisis of the GOP’s making. Johnson has until next Tuesday to propose a continuing resolution that will keep the government open after next Friday. That seems unlikely and should be a bigger story. It will be in short order.

Ohio Republicans say they will work to undermine Issue 1 constitutional amendment.

          Twenty-seven Republican legislators in Ohio have signed a letter pledging to obstruct the implementation of the constitutional amendment passed as Issue 1, which provides in part,

Every individual has a right to make and carry out one’s own reproductive decisions, including but not limited to decisions on:

1. contraception;

2. fertility treatment;

3. continuing one’s own pregnancy;

4. miscarriage care; and

5. abortion.

          Despite the sweeping language of the amendment, the Republican legislators signed a letter that said, in part,

[W]e want to be very clear. The vague, intentionally deceptive language of Issue 1 does not clarify the issues of life, parental consent, informed consent . . . but rather introduces more confusion. . . . We will do everything in our power to prevent our laws from being removed based upon perception of intent.

          Indeed, per reports of the local press in Ohio, Republicans are planning to propose an abortion ban for the 2024 general election ballot. (“There are current discussions about putting another constitutional amendment on the 2024 primary ballot, one that could call for a 15-week abortion ban.”) Glen Youngkin’s proposed 15-week abortion ban in Virginia led to a Democratic takeover of both chambers of the legislature. If Ohio Republicans propose the same ban, they will ensure that Senator Sherrod Brown and President Biden carry Ohio in 2024.

          Republicans will never learn. While we can’t count on Republicans to defeat themselves, we should be ready to capitalize on their mistakes. And we must recognize that we are engaged in a never-ending battle to protect our liberties. How do we do that without exhausting ourselves or suffering from “burnout”? Read on!

Calling all grassroots leaders! Is burnout a problem for your organization?

          In the last year, I've heard from many grassroots leaders that they struggle with burnout. I know I do.

          Most of us have spent the last seven years resisting the consequences of the reactionary spasm that propelled Trump into office in 2016. We fought through four major election cycles (2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023) and won far more often than we lost. Yet, it never seems to be enough. Trump's shrinking base continues to support him. And when we do win—like passing a constitutional amendment in Ohio—Republicans say that they will disregard the law as enacted by the will of the people.

           The great results on Tuesday were nearly universally dismissed as meaningless or anomalous by political analysts and major media. It is enough to demoralize and demotivate people who are critical to our fight to save democracy. Burnout is part of the GOP’s plan—and we must resist that cynical strategy in the same way that we resist their reactionary ideas.

          On Thursday, reader Marlene LB posted a comment that said she was a member of one of the first Indivisible groups established in 2017. But the group fell apart when “two of the people running it reached burn out.” I promised Marlene that I would think about the problem of burnout and address it in tonight’s newsletter.

          After discussing the issue with my wife and Managing Editor, here's what I would like to do: I want to help grassroots leaders deal with the problem of burnout—for themselves and their volunteers. Grassroots leaders in hundreds of organizations across the nation have been dealing with burnout for years. They are experts in dealing with burnout even if they don’t recognize that fact. We should come together as a community to discuss the problem and identify solutions—leveraging the collective wisdom of battle-tested grassroots leaders. And while we are at it, we can vent, commiserate, and lift one another up.

        So, I am inviting grassroots leaders to join one another (and me) on Thursday, November 30 at 3:00 PM Eastern / Noon Pacific for a Zoom session that I am calling “Grassroots Leaders Forum: Overcoming Burnout.” A sign-up sheet is here: Grassroots Leaders Forum.

          Although I will briefly share my experience with the newsletter, the Forum will be led by grassroots leaders discussing the challenges they have faced and the solutions they have adopted. I expect that we will have two-person panels with separate presentations from Indivisible, Swing Left, Markers for Democracy, PostCardsToVoters, and more. (The prior sentence was a surprise to each of those organizations, but I figure they can’t say “No” after having been “volunteered”!)

          The Grassroots Leaders Forum is free; there will be no “ask” for donations for any cause or candidate; I am not collecting emails or promoting this newsletter. I have no aspirations for this effort to grow into a permanent organization or endeavor. (I have my hands full with the newsletter!) The Grassroots Leaders Forum is an action for and by the members of this newsletter community. We are engaged in a marathon. We must take care of one another if we expect to make it to the finish line without injury to our physical, emotional, and mental health.

          I hope to see current, former, and future grassroots leaders at the Forum!

Diplomatic efforts for humanitarian pauses in Israel’s war on Hamas.

          The diplomatic efforts to achieve humanitarian pauses in Israel’s war on Hamas are heating up—and are confusing. I provide a summary below as the situation exists on Thursday evening, but events may have changed by the time you read this newsletter. The folks at Crooked Media have been doing a good job of keeping up with developments. See their newsletter for Thursday, Crooked Media, What A Day: A lost pause.

(For those not familiar with Crooked Media, the principals are Jon Favreau, John Lovett, and Tommy Vietor, all veterans of the Obama administration and producers of Pod Save America.)

          In short,

• President Biden attempted to persuade Prime Minister Netanyahu to agree to a three-day pause. Netanyahu rejected Biden’s request.

• The White House then announced that the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) agreed to four-hour daily pauses in the fighting to allow for humanitarian movement of people and supplies. The IDF didn’t exactly confirm or deny the White House announcement, but an Israeli government spokesperson said that Israel would continue a daily “window for the evacuation of civilians.”

• US National Security spokesperson John Kirby and representatives of the Israeli government gave different interpretations of how long Israel would remain in Gaza after the war. The US has said a “reoccupation” of Gaza would be a mistake, while Israeli officials describe an “indefinite” period during which Israel would be responsible for security in Gaza.

• The Guardian claims—and Israel denies—that PM Netanyahu rejected a five-day ceasefire for the release of “dozens” of hostages.

          Amidst the confusion and conflicting stories, there appears to be minor progress toward temporary cessation of hostilities for humanitarian purposes.

Trump tells Univision he will use DOJ to persecute political enemies.

          In an interview with Univision, Trump said explicitly that he would “indict” his political opponents if he becomes president again. See Washington Post, Trump says on Univision he could weaponize FBI, DOJ against his enemies. (This article is accessible to all.)

          After claiming that Biden has unfairly prosecuted Trump (a lie on every level), Trump said,

They have done something that allows the next party . . . if I happen to be president and I see somebody who’s doing well and beating me very badly, I say, ‘Go down and indict them.’ They’d be out of business. They’d be out of the election.

          Trump's statement corroborates earlier reporting by the Washington Post that Trump's allies are planning to turn the DOJ and FBI into political payback operations if Trump is reelected. See Washington Post, Trump and allies plot revenge, Justice Department control in a second term. (This article is accessible to all.)

          Trump's comments to Univision and WaPo’s reporting underscore the point that Democrats are not being hyperbolic when they describe Trump as the greatest threat to American democracy in the last 150 years. The fact that the major media does not seem to get (or care about) that is what has disheartened so many Democrats. But if you read the Comments to yesterday’s newsletter, you will be heartened by the number of readers who have promised to push back on irresponsible reporting by major media outlets. I felt fired up after reading the Comments. See especially the discussion about Media and Democracy Project and Media Matters for America.

Speaking of grassroots action . . . .

          Kate McMullan asked me to issue this invitation to readers of the newsletter to join Seniors Taking Action:       

The members of Seniors Taking Action live in different states but are united by a deep concern for our democracy and our determination to do whatever we can to help save it for our children and grandchildren. We regularly host political luminaries to inspire us at our weekly Zoom meeting. We write postcards to register voters in swing states and to get out the vote for elections.

We recently mailed 3,000 postcards in support of two key candidates running for the Virginia State Legislature. On election night, we stayed up late, texting each other as the vote count came in and we celebrated when our candidates won. Yes! We felt we'd helped make a difference, and that felt good! As Joan Baez said, “Action is the antidote to despair.”  

The most crucial election of our lives will take place a year from now. The more of us there are writing postcards, the greater difference we can make. We invite any and all readers of this newsletter join us! Check out Seniors Taking Action.

Concluding Thoughts.

          One of the gratifying aspects of the victories on Tuesday is that they validated the gut feelings of millions of Americans about where their fellow citizens stand on the issues. The “wisdom of the crowds” was more accurate than the flawed horse-race polling favored by the media. In the future, we should trust our instincts. Up to a point.

          It is sometimes difficult to tell the difference between instinct and wishful thinking. Being optimistic is a positive attribute only if it is accompanied by a healthy dedication to reality. We need both. The media suggested that our optimism was misplaced, but anyone who has met a few hundred Americans could have predicted the outcome of Tuesday’s elections more accurately than the major media’s polls.

          Let’s apply the above construct to Senator Joe Manchin’s announcement that he will not run for re-election as Senator from West Virginia. Pundits IMMEDIATELY declared the development as “bad news” for Democrats and predicted that Democrats would lose control of the Senate. Manchin’s retirement is cause for concern. After all, Manchin was a Democrat on Mondays, Wednesdays, and the third Friday of each month. Otherwise, he was an unreliable ally who inflicted significant damage on Joe Biden’s agenda.

          Moreover, Manchin had alienated many West Virginians and faced an uphill battle for reelection. It is better to replace him with a true Democrat who supports reproductive liberty—something that Manchin opposes. If state races are going to be decided, in part, by support for women’s right to reproductive freedom, Joe Manchin is the wrong candidate for Democrats.

          Democrats have an uphill battle to retain the Senate in 2024. But the two most instructive elections last Tuesday were those of Andy Beshear in Kentucky and Brandon Pressley in Mississippi. Beshear supports reproductive rights and overcame the odds to win in a deep red state. Brandon Pressley, who opposes reproductive freedom, performed well but fell short.

          Would the result have been different if Pressley supported reproductive freedom? The only way to test that theory is to run candidates in deep red states who oppose the draconian restrictions that GOP legislatures seek to impose. It’s possible that Joe Manchin would have lost in West Virginia in 2024, but a Democrat who supports reproductive liberty for West Virginians might win.

          Realistically, we have an uphill fight for the Senate. But it is WAY too early to concede defeat in any contested Senate seat that is up for reelection. Americans don’t want politicians to control their most basic and personal decisions about their families. You don’t need a NYTimes poll to understand that fact. So, don’t give up on West Virginia or the Senate. Trust your instincts and remain optimistic!

          Talk to you tomorrow!