Not only did NYT promote their outlier result with the claim that it's the only legitimate poll, it's not a legitimate topline. Harris wins Independents by 4 or 5 with likely voters depending on the question. As they have done ALL YEAR, Times/Siena has used an R+ weight to turn what should be a result right in the range of the polling average into a Trump lead in order to create that headline before the debate. If you look back to June, they did the same thing then.
If you look at the methodology you can see them admit this. They manipulated the data to a set goal of R+2. In the past 40 years, there has never been an R+ electorate in a Presidential election. This is an intentional choice to mislead.
There's other issues with this poll (12% of likely voters did not vote in 2020, 2020 voters are Biden+3 when he won by about 5, Trump somehow wins 97% of his 2020 voters, both Black and Hispanic voters are underweighted at 10% when they're 13% of the electorate...) but the net impact of all of this is that the "result" wasn't an outlier, it was a lie.
Retired data analyst here and statistics 101 tells us that if the sample (i.e. poll takers) doesn't accurately represent the population (i.e. likely voters) you stop right there. You do NOT analyze the data and draw conclusions!!!
Last week Simon Rosenberg of Hopium Chronicles had a great interview with Tom Bonier of Data Smart about voter registration rates since Biden passed the baton relative to the same point in the election cycle. Good stuff - and statistically sound!
Cheryl: Retired sociologist here, statistics 101, and survey methodology 101 all agree with you. Garbage in, garbage out. It’s gotten so bad I stopped reviewing or trying to figure out the weighting schemes they are using to “doctor” their data. It’s appalling and part of the reason I stopped NYT.
And, I think I read somewhere in one of these incredible chats, that new voters who have registered since Harris declared her candidacy are not among those being polled. Which would, of course, create a huge difference in the results. I can only conclude that pollsters, like weather people, have a great job....making predictions with no repercussions when they get it wrong! Ignore the polls and focus on voter registration!!
I would say that Julius Sulzberger is probably on the Kremlin payroll at this point. The fact that Biden and Harris have come out strongly for unions has scared the corporate owners and bosses into lying to themselves first and then trying to lie to the rest of us. Viva la Kamala!
They just can't turn away from this trainwreck. When, before Trump, was there an opportunity to see an entertainer speak out against women (whose duty it is to have and raise children), diversity (which robs white men of their jobs), national security (which will yield to the dictators, and sharing our top-secrets with them), migrants (the backbone of America, and the supplier of cheap labor that inures to the benefit of the American consumers, who are vital to big corporations)? He's the voice of those people. Our bad in failing to recognize the size of that group of haters, of people who don't see the value in protecting those virtues.
Actually -- I think that's motivation: not on Russian payroll, not for big tax cuts -- but that the media business is huge (NYT, WaPo, network news, etc.) when Trump is Prez, because, as you so aptly put it "just can't turn away from this trainwreck". There's something that's "WTF did he (or someone in his Admin) do now?" Every. Single. Day.
And because there is that in the American psyche which just loves to be "the rebel"...the outlier..... which, in my mind, explains why so many still stick with DT. Toeing the line, following in their parents' footsteps hasn't led anywhere...why not go with the crazy guy?! He's in the headlines every day!
Joe is 100% right. The NYT/Sienna poll is bad polling and has been all cycle, but it isn't the only one where the crosstabs don't add up to topline polling. We shouldn't care about that. As Robert pointed out, the trends are good, and it’s clear where the Harris campaign needs to focus, and it’s mainly white women. The news there is not dire, just an area for improvement.
The bottom line is that this is a turnout election. If you compare the numbers in the seven swing states in 2016 and 2020, you see that turnout was a driving factor in Biden’s win. If turnout in these states exceeds 2020, Harris wins. In round figures, we’re talking 75-80% turnout, which is achievable based on the increase in Democratic voter registrations. There are more obstacles this time around, but there are also more grassroots efforts. Get out the vote, and we’ll win at the only poll that matters.
Let’s focus on what we can do not what a poll is saying. I personally believe the Republicans have flooded the polling world to make it appear Trump is neck and neck when in reality he is not.
Let’s focus on what we can do not what a poll is saying. I personally believe the Republicans have flooded the polling world to make it appear Trump is neck and neck when in reality he is not.
Also remember something more basic: This is the best of the four candidates we've run against Trump. This is our best against his worst - 2016 was the opposite.
Except that Hillary's demise was due to Russian disinformation and big money in aid of those foreign bots and trolls; and, Biden, was unfairly blamed for his age, which Trump shares, showing his clear signs of dementia, and the press stays silent. Go figure!
I'm not so sure that's accurate. She was confident at the end -- as we all were -- because the "grab 'em by the p-ssy" tape just came out. It was justifiable confidence, imho. And then, just days before the election, Comer made that announcement. Everything changed after that announcement.
No, Clinton was far better than Trump - every day and every hour. Much smarter, more care for avg citizens and not a liar. First (and last term ) Trump should have opened the eyes of even MAGA citizens very quickly.
No, Clinto and Biden were the best but Kamala right up there. Seems like you didn’t know Clinton at all and didn’t/couldn’t see how Biden improved and fixed Trump’s destruction duration in power. I’m not sure where you count r against Trump. I count 3.
Thank you for this. Fortunately for us, both Harris and Walz have nice, shiny spines, something Trump is not used to facing. I suspect that many Republicans not in the cult will either stay home or vote for Harris--but they won't say so.
I just do NOT understand how someone so virulently critical of Trump can, a few months later, be kissing his ass in abject worship. Either they are all incredibly self-serving, or he is threatening to kill members of their families. I don't know how else people can reverse like this. Maybe I'm naive, but what is strong enough for someone to upend their entire belief system? Threats of violence is all I've got.
Agreed. Hubbell should be interviewed on major networks. And I would like to see Robert and Simon Rosenberg be members of the communication team in the Harris/Walz administration.
In the meantime we all do what we can in our own ways:
Thank you. I feel like Alice in Wonderland sometimes. After reading about this poll yesterday, today I'm trying to listen to "The Daily" (NYT), and it's all I can do to make it for five minutes without taking a break. Nate Cohen continues to talk about how Harris's messaging is faltering, but Trump's is strong, and his numbers are rising. Really? Promising a bloody effort to deport immigrants is gaining followers for him?
I'm in Texas. TEXAS. And what I'm seeing as I register new voters or having current voters verify their registration, is a determination that they will be registered, have what they need when they go to vote, and get their friends to do the same. With my older, white, more conservative-moderate friends, I'm seeing amazement that this sleaze-ball creep is still getting away over and over again with crimes, sexual assault, and fraud. Some may not share my excitement about Kamala, but they're in disbelief that this nincompoop is even being considered as qualified to serve.
Of course I'm dismayed when I see bad polls, and I get that a large percentage of people will still vote for Trump, but it's impossible for me to see him winning. (Not impossible enough that I won't keep registering voters every day, though.)
The resistant-to-declare Independent Voter is the one that flummoxes me. HOW can anyone not have a concrete opinion of which candidate is better suited to lead the most powerful nation in the world? “I’m just not sure” or “I don’t quite know enough about Kamala…” defies being alive. Is it just the deep satisfying self-identity of being a contrarian? That’s all I can think.
A lot of people have deep ambivalence about putting a woman as president. We no longer have an organized feminist movement, but we still have an organized patriarchy. I would rather have seen a man run against Trump. Trump’s success against all of the prosecutions has emboldened him and his supporters. I appreciate everything Robert is saying, but I am terrified for my children and grandchildren.
I am terrified, as well. This weekend I had to go to the emergency room. The EMT was putting the IV in and brought up the election. He said ‘I hate the guy but I’m going to vote for him” I asked why you would vote for someone you hate? He said “he’s strong and can handle Putin”. I almost said he doesn’t handle him, he emulates him! But, he was putting in my IV😂.
I agree that the NYT’s poll is flawed. However, I wonder if those who believe the race is very tight (and that Trump might possibly win) will be more motivated to vote. 🤞
Thanks again, Robert for continuing to urge us to action! My sister has organized a postcard party this week. We’re hoping to send several 100 postcards to Georgia.
That's great GPE! I am having a postcard party on the 14th. We are sending postcards organized by "Postcards to Swing States" which sends out to registered Dems who have not been voting in recent elections. My sister in law started doing this recently after her husband received such a postcard a couple years ago. They both found out how impressive it is to receive a postcard written to them by another American.
FT6 sent over a million texts to GA and FL over the weekend.
The electorate is not set... yet. Millions of potential Harris voters are not registered ... yet. She trends 60% with women, the same with young people, 70% with tenants in the blue wall swing states. Now is the hour to expand our base significantly.
And please vote Dem all the way down the ballot so Dems can fix SCROTUS, abortion laws, expose Project 2025 and whatever else the Rs and Trump have broken
Missed my Sunday football game! I can't watch and write postcards at the same time.(g). All for a good cause! I have met some wonderful people at the neighborhood party. Write On!
Robert, i wonder… It seems unlikely that a man who is unable to string together full sentences in his speeches would be capable of writing the message you quote in your newsletter tonight. So my question is - who is writing his deranged threatening posts?
He grew up in Santa Monica, Ca and went to my temple. It's crazy that a kid that grew up here in Cali could turn out to be such a creep. The Rabbi said he was always this way for some reason. Damaged goods from birth.
When you write, you have opportunities to correct the text. When you speak, the words are gone as soon as you utter them.
As I’ve aged, I sometimes find that expressing my ideas orally is freighted with hangups. If I felt compelled to fill in the silent spaces, to keep the conversation going, I might use poorly chosen words.
Listen to the 2016 "Inauguration" speech - That was not his composition, nor did he deliver with successful plans to address the key issues of his term
Not to worry, Robert! I am hunkered down writing postcards as fast as I can. I am an advocate of leaving a "paper trail" for recipients to follow as they follow the path to their polling place!
And count me - as well as I'm sure many of your readers - among those who are your best friends. As Groucho Marx was credited as saying: "When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out; a best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun!'"
All kidding aside, here is Harris last Saturday at a Penzey's shop that sells spices in western Pennsylvania. Hugs all around for her supporters are shown in this 11-minute video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XgnIe86i-M
One question I have not heard asked: Since they will be stuck in space until February 2025, will Suni and Butch be able to vote...and have their votes counted?
Like Joyce Vance says, we’re all in this together.
Penzeys Spices is not just any old spice shop. Their support for progressive causes would have them rounded up with the rest of us. They do mail order:
Good question about poor Suni and Butch. The answer starts with the absentee voting rules of their home states, which most likely would require mail service…sigh…
I have been ordering from Penzey's online for the past few years, and love their spices. When they have sales on my favorites, I stock up. They often offer a $50 gift card for $35 for a limited time. The glass jars are always wrapped in packing paper with more packing paper inside of very sturdy boxes. Bill Penzey must be quite a character in real life.
As you know, I love Penzeys. They lost quite a bit of business when they started talking about how the Republicans are not good for democracy. But Karma is a funny thing. After the VP’s visit there were so many posts on Threads with people talking about their favorite spices, that I’m sure their business increased substantially. 😀
I like their spices too. If you saw Bill's last email, he says the volume of hate mail has increased more than usual after her visit. Even Fox News smeared him. What I bet will happen is that sales will go through the roof. In fact, I need to get in an order for some Vanilla Sugar. :D
Thanks, Ellie, for adding the info about Penzeys. I've shopped there by mail, of course. I get the feeling they'll be proud to be in a cell alongside us!
I've been using Penzey's products since before the 2020 election! Love their message and their quality products. I have a Penzey heart from one of their bumper stickers on the back window of my truck here in SC. 😊 'Heal the World'... 💗
Penzey has a couple of taglines they have used for a long time and that they offer on merch on their site - 'Embrace Hope', 'Heal the World... Cook Dinner Tonight', 'Love People. Cook Them Tasty Food', and the latest one on a line of hoodies they have is a quote - 'Kindness Can't Sit Down Simply Because Anger Has Stood Up'. 😊 I have a colorful Penzey 'Embrace Hope' magnet on my fridge the last few years too - a good reminder as I dealt with cancer treatments, and now the monitoring process. Some days being deliberate about reaching out for that spark of hope has been tougher than others, both for my own personal issues as well as the wider social/political spectrum.
Watched the Penzeys visit video yesterday and promptly ordered from them, even though I rarely cook anymore - and even worse - had not opened an order from a year ago.
During the RNC, when a news outlet was filming a confrontation between Rethug attendees and a protestor out in front of the convention site, did you notice the Penzey's shop with a big sign in their window just down the street, in the background of that incident? (They took down the sign immediately after the shooting incident with tffg.) The policewoman told the Rethug to "just keep walking, sir, do not engage, just keep moving."
We have a Penzey's retail store near us in San Diego. I sometimes reply to the owner of the Penzey's company that I appreciate the courage he shows to be unabashedly liberal! I buy my spices there just for that reason alone, although they have a huge variety of spaces, great promotional deals, and some wonderful recipes. I just love everything about them! They are a business to be supported!!!! MAGA supporters won't buy from them, I'm sure. Penzey's is our Pillow guy, our Chick-a-Filet - a place I can shop without hesitation that I'm supporting some scumbag!
Having friends like you and so many other readers on this forum keeps me plugging along, writing postcards (this week to AZ), talking to people, wearing my Kamala t-shirts. If, god forbid, the worst happens in November, I know I'm part of a supportive community that will lift me up. That said, I remain optimistic. We have what we need to prevail!
I have never heard a clearer or more concise phrasing of the situation:
"He is an avatar for their anger".
It is an incredible statement. How did a large portion of the North American population come in to this state? Is it extant worldwide, awaiting similar avatars anywhere?
I want to think of us as a generally good-natured, hospitable, caring, even loving people. I want to believe that a goodly majority of us are.
To me it has been obvious for years that dt represents the worst in human depravity. It only becomes more obvious over time.
Robert, you have helped me face the truth about why at least a 1/3 of the North American adult voting population seems so intensely deluded. They must carry that anger madness within them and require an avatar to express it for them.
I am on my knees in prayer that there are truly enough of us committed to actual living of wholesome values.... that we can and will carry the day.
I am leaning in on that prayer.
And donating everything I possibly can to it in time, energy, and money.
I trust everyone who reads this column is doing the same.
Yes that popped for me too. It’s good to remember or realize that anger is always in the second wave of emotion.
The sequence invariably follows the same path. First is perception of something happening. This perception/noticing/seeing is deeply filtered or shaped in a gazillion ways. Filtering at the level of thoughts allows some thoughts through while blocking others thoughts from awareness. Part of this process leaves us with expectations. When something happens that we are not expecting the first thing that happens is surprise or startle or even shock. This is easy to see in very young people and displays in a much briefer way as we get older and better at hiding our reactions.
Once the first reaction to something happening and the surprise passes, THEN comes the anger which is actually the generation of a large charge of bodily energy TO DEAL WITH THE THREAT.
Because of this sequence from surprise/threat to generating energy to deal with the perceived threat, which makes perfect sense by the way, the only effective way to deal with an angry person is to have them get back to the initial reaction of surprise/startle and NOT try to talk argue them out of their feeling angry. The anger isn’t the issue. The anger is the right reaction to how something occurred for them.
The trick is getting the unnoticed unacknowledged first impression back up to awareness. The reason this is so difficult is that for the most part it means recognizing and saying “I was afraid.” I was afraid you would leave me. I’m afraid of being alone. What you said or did hurt me and I was afraid that you would leave or hurt me again if I said something. I am afraid to work that much. I’m afraid I can’t do what needs to be done. I’m afraid I’m not smart enough, or strong enough, or know enough, etc., etc., etc. Regarding political ravings - I’m afraid of communists, immigrants, my children being groomed to be gay, the US collapsing, the world collapsing, fill in about everything out of Trump’s mouth. Notice the formula: generate fear first, then anger naturally follows. The acting out of anger is then fear-based. This is Trump’s not-so-secret sauce, keep poking at the amygdala, keep stirring up fear to get people to take action with the energy (called anger) provided they the fear. The angry mob effect.
The point is that some form of fear is where anger comes from. Fear is anger’s mother.
Create a safe space for fear to be acknowledged, accepted, and released and the vision of monsters evaporates, the darkest clouds seemingly magically vanish and the sun or stars reappears.
What keeps the deep prohibition from saying “I am afraid” is the fear keeping us back from the needed actions and allows the darkness to fester.
Every story arc has the hero taking action in the face of something fearful. The triumph of not being stopped by fear is why we watch the movies and read the stories.
Anger is good in its getting us energized and ready for battle. The question is what are we afraid of and are we going to be stopped by it or continue to take the needed actions while holding fear as our ally keeping us alert along the adventure?
Remember, we are not afraid alone on this journey, we are afraid together.
We all need to take many actions before the elections. Let them be inspired by a commitment to goodness, to truth, to beauty. Let’s be moved and touched by all the best in humanity. Let’s accept and even welcome the demons that threaten us with isolation and stand strong, bright, and together, one day, one step at a time.
Worshiping their avatar and American democracy be damned! Now there's the equivalent of Kool-Aid, for ya'. Trump or death. Oops, I mean, Trump even if death!
I like the rise in new forms of journalism, like this and other newsletters through Substack. We saw other 'content creators' given space at the DNC, to the affront of mainstream media stars. Joyce Vance was just at the 'Texas Tribune Festival, a celebration of non-profit journalism where thousands of people get together for three days of fascinating panels'. Let's support these efforts as one way to send a message to MSM.
As I might previously have posted on this site, I write to distinguish between voter suppression at the front end (referencing the casting of votes) and at the back end (referencing their tabulation). While the latter might seem the more disheartening and beyond our control, I would note, aside from the 100+ attorneys prepared to work tirelessly to ensure elections up and down the ballot are both fair and secured, elections attorney Marc Elias regularly presses his subscribers to remain mindful of irregularities within their respective communities as a way to participle in insuring security of our elections. I raise this point to underscore that nothing is beyond our individual control, including MAGA’s plan to seize or hold control of seats whether or not they win more votes.
Agree,Barbara Jo ! Fellow subscriber to Marc Elias/Democracy Docket and heartened by his regular emails detailing their tireless work while remaining mindful of what is happening in my MAGA community. If I might add, my state ALCU org is also a valuable resource.ACLU FL lists problems voters may encounter at the polls and how to report along with contact #’s.
Yes, Robert gets to the heart of the irony: The free press glosses over the biggest threat to the free press. Fitting, though, of Alice's Wonderland, which is where we find ourselves.
Can I suggest you don't mention Trump again between today and the election ... simply not mention him whatsoever - where he is, what he's doing, what's he saying. Just completely ignore him - and concentrate on where Harris and Walz are and what they're doing? I can't see how even mentioning Trump again is useful.
If he drops dead ... okay you can tell em ... but otherwise why mention anything about what he says or does. What is the point? All your readers don't need reminders he is a demented pig.
I disagree. We need to know how deranged the Republican candidate is or WE are living in a silo. I appreciate that Robert reports on what the media will not to keep us focused and determined. Thank you for blaring the alarm, Robert.
I fully agree with Lanette. We must know what the enemy is up to. We sure as hell cannot get it from the mainstream media. We only have Robert and the few others like him on Substack.
I have to disagree. I would prefer to know what my enemy is doing and where he is at all times. I don't need to hear all the insanity, but I need to know what he is doing. I have so many folks in my world who have never heard of Project 2025 and that Trump was involved. They did not know that he finally admitted he lost the election. Anyway, I need to know what he is doing and saying to get the word out to all who think he is great and the world's savior.
I like that idea. I'll be relieved when he's out of the picture. The news I want to hear is that he's been confined to his home for the rest of his life. I don't think he'll be sent to prison but he does need to be confined and have no further exposure in the news. I think that needs to be part of the sentence...no more coverage with the exception of his death.
Have you noticed there has not been ONE day since 2016 that orange oompah loompah’s name hasn’t been uttered? Every. Single. Day. From all media types. Makes me vomit.
It will make you crazy trying to understand crazy! Dun-old is an angry old man and conman crazy. He's selling himself and in sales you learn to never take 'no' for an answer, you just look for different approaches. That's what he's doing. He's a political predator stalking the presidency. I'm not surprised by anything he says or does now. What continues to baffle me is how many people have bought his con and see him as sane. We have to remain grounded and not get caught up in any type of bizarre response.
I am reading a book that I highly recommend to all. “The Confidence Game: Why We Fall For It Every Time,” by Maria Konnikova. For the first time I am beginning to understand how Trump has managed to gain control over the minds of so many.
WE are staring our "October Surprise" , right before us, in the eyes. Release of The Apprentice is October eleven. This, fellow patriots, is maybe, our gift from Heaven. After reading descriptions of the work, I understand why trump's attorneys are working to prevent it''s inevitable release. Not flattering as Roy "Dr. Frankenstein" Cohn (depicted by Jeremy Strong, appears to be a very impactful depiction of mentorship from the staff at Hell, Inc. This, coupled with his debate deflate tomorrow, should help any undecideds to get a good idea of how to cast their votes. Keep the boilers steaming people, flank speed ahead. Here in Florida, Rick Snot does not have the means to promote his brand as anything else but pure evil. Debbie Muscarel-Powell is well positioned to end his sorry career. She is a good investment in American Democracy.
" it is the surest sign that we are on the path to permanent victory" There will be no permanent victory; we're on a clear path to victory in 2024 and possibly the beginning of a turnaround in state governments, but we will need to keep up our attention and awareness to prevent a resurgence in 26, 28, and beyond. More importantly, old folks like me need to pass a sense of urgency along to our successors. Permanent victory is found only in Paradise, and we just get occasional tastes while we're here.
Dave, I very much appreciate your perspective and would hope more of us would recognize MAGA as a symptom, just as the Mandate for Leadership released in 1981 (a precursor to Project 2025) was, whose legacy dates back to Benjamin Franklin’s “…a republic if you can keep it.”
One of the truly great ones by Robert today. I wish I could do it justice. All I can say is follow it and do the best you can do to prevent Trump from being elected again, pray for our country. Words fail,
Trump is deranged and demented. His behavior will get worse in the next 2 months. It's ugly and offensive to us! Now is when we must buckle up and try harder, do more, and narrow our focus on winning this election.
Not only did NYT promote their outlier result with the claim that it's the only legitimate poll, it's not a legitimate topline. Harris wins Independents by 4 or 5 with likely voters depending on the question. As they have done ALL YEAR, Times/Siena has used an R+ weight to turn what should be a result right in the range of the polling average into a Trump lead in order to create that headline before the debate. If you look back to June, they did the same thing then.
If you look at the methodology you can see them admit this. They manipulated the data to a set goal of R+2. In the past 40 years, there has never been an R+ electorate in a Presidential election. This is an intentional choice to mislead.
There's other issues with this poll (12% of likely voters did not vote in 2020, 2020 voters are Biden+3 when he won by about 5, Trump somehow wins 97% of his 2020 voters, both Black and Hispanic voters are underweighted at 10% when they're 13% of the electorate...) but the net impact of all of this is that the "result" wasn't an outlier, it was a lie.
Retired data analyst here and statistics 101 tells us that if the sample (i.e. poll takers) doesn't accurately represent the population (i.e. likely voters) you stop right there. You do NOT analyze the data and draw conclusions!!!
Last week Simon Rosenberg of Hopium Chronicles had a great interview with Tom Bonier of Data Smart about voter registration rates since Biden passed the baton relative to the same point in the election cycle. Good stuff - and statistically sound!
Cheryl: Retired sociologist here, statistics 101, and survey methodology 101 all agree with you. Garbage in, garbage out. It’s gotten so bad I stopped reviewing or trying to figure out the weighting schemes they are using to “doctor” their data. It’s appalling and part of the reason I stopped NYT.
Bonnie, I hope you wrote to the NYT and told them why you stopped your subscription.
Yes, I did!
Plus Lichtman is always right!
Happy to hear that—Alan Lichman was a college classmate. And yes, his hair was the same then, although darker.
Lichtman is lucky, but he calls attention to the right stuff. :)
Speaking on NYT poll and Tom Bonier -- he has the following tweet this afternoon:
======================
In June, Dems weren't very engaged in the presidential race. The NYT survey then showed the likely electorate as equal shares Dem/GOP.
In the NYT poll released over the weekend, their likely electorate moved to +3 GOP.
Do you think Dem intensity is lower than it was in June?
======================
And, I think I read somewhere in one of these incredible chats, that new voters who have registered since Harris declared her candidacy are not among those being polled. Which would, of course, create a huge difference in the results. I can only conclude that pollsters, like weather people, have a great job....making predictions with no repercussions when they get it wrong! Ignore the polls and focus on voter registration!!
I would say that Julius Sulzberger is probably on the Kremlin payroll at this point. The fact that Biden and Harris have come out strongly for unions has scared the corporate owners and bosses into lying to themselves first and then trying to lie to the rest of us. Viva la Kamala!
They just can't turn away from this trainwreck. When, before Trump, was there an opportunity to see an entertainer speak out against women (whose duty it is to have and raise children), diversity (which robs white men of their jobs), national security (which will yield to the dictators, and sharing our top-secrets with them), migrants (the backbone of America, and the supplier of cheap labor that inures to the benefit of the American consumers, who are vital to big corporations)? He's the voice of those people. Our bad in failing to recognize the size of that group of haters, of people who don't see the value in protecting those virtues.
Actually -- I think that's motivation: not on Russian payroll, not for big tax cuts -- but that the media business is huge (NYT, WaPo, network news, etc.) when Trump is Prez, because, as you so aptly put it "just can't turn away from this trainwreck". There's something that's "WTF did he (or someone in his Admin) do now?" Every. Single. Day.
And because there is that in the American psyche which just loves to be "the rebel"...the outlier..... which, in my mind, explains why so many still stick with DT. Toeing the line, following in their parents' footsteps hasn't led anywhere...why not go with the crazy guy?! He's in the headlines every day!
Or maybe he knows his typical reader is voting for Harris and he is covering his bases.
Nah!
Very likely on the payroll or being blackmailed
I guess those Russian hackers are a problem. So are the Russian hotels and Russian hookers. The 3-H Problem. Hookers-hotels-hackers.
Joe is 100% right. The NYT/Sienna poll is bad polling and has been all cycle, but it isn't the only one where the crosstabs don't add up to topline polling. We shouldn't care about that. As Robert pointed out, the trends are good, and it’s clear where the Harris campaign needs to focus, and it’s mainly white women. The news there is not dire, just an area for improvement.
The bottom line is that this is a turnout election. If you compare the numbers in the seven swing states in 2016 and 2020, you see that turnout was a driving factor in Biden’s win. If turnout in these states exceeds 2020, Harris wins. In round figures, we’re talking 75-80% turnout, which is achievable based on the increase in Democratic voter registrations. There are more obstacles this time around, but there are also more grassroots efforts. Get out the vote, and we’ll win at the only poll that matters.
Let’s focus on what we can do not what a poll is saying. I personally believe the Republicans have flooded the polling world to make it appear Trump is neck and neck when in reality he is not.
Plus we know that Republicans and people with a grievance are more likely to respond to a poll to get their feelings out.
Let’s focus on what we can do not what a poll is saying. I personally believe the Republicans have flooded the polling world to make it appear Trump is neck and neck when in reality he is not.
Also remember something more basic: This is the best of the four candidates we've run against Trump. This is our best against his worst - 2016 was the opposite.
Except that Hillary's demise was due to Russian disinformation and big money in aid of those foreign bots and trolls; and, Biden, was unfairly blamed for his age, which Trump shares, showing his clear signs of dementia, and the press stays silent. Go figure!
Hillary lost for a lot of reasons, the lack of any of which might have saved her.
Hillary ran a lousy campaign, especially at the end. She believed the polls.
You are right. She didn't believe that the despicable element of America's voters would elect a guy like that. Now we know differently.
I'm not so sure that's accurate. She was confident at the end -- as we all were -- because the "grab 'em by the p-ssy" tape just came out. It was justifiable confidence, imho. And then, just days before the election, Comer made that announcement. Everything changed after that announcement.
No, Clinton was far better than Trump - every day and every hour. Much smarter, more care for avg citizens and not a liar. First (and last term ) Trump should have opened the eyes of even MAGA citizens very quickly.
Well said.
No, Clinto and Biden were the best but Kamala right up there. Seems like you didn’t know Clinton at all and didn’t/couldn’t see how Biden improved and fixed Trump’s destruction duration in power. I’m not sure where you count r against Trump. I count 3.
That is hopeful, Dean!
Fantastic article in the Atlantic!
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/10/trump-gop-support-jd-vance-2024/679564/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-atlantic-am&utm_term=The%20Atlantic%20AM
Thank you for this. Fortunately for us, both Harris and Walz have nice, shiny spines, something Trump is not used to facing. I suspect that many Republicans not in the cult will either stay home or vote for Harris--but they won't say so.
I just do NOT understand how someone so virulently critical of Trump can, a few months later, be kissing his ass in abject worship. Either they are all incredibly self-serving, or he is threatening to kill members of their families. I don't know how else people can reverse like this. Maybe I'm naive, but what is strong enough for someone to upend their entire belief system? Threats of violence is all I've got.
Another great read:
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2024-09-06/i-know-what-trump-was-really-talking-about-in-his-child-care-rant-and-its-even-dumber-than-you-thought?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR1FBHcKlcCcgPv6A5ZWVv_Y31Pn7ov2G_LsBdxgiIZfrtXn6hD2YqyMcnk_aem_NYKFaI6DdiMJCFp19khn5g
Thank you.
This article inthe Atlantic is quite welcome and a refreshing - telling it like it is.
My hope is that many would read it
Please share this report of the Times outrageous poll with a broader audience. Thank you.
Agreed. Hubbell should be interviewed on major networks. And I would like to see Robert and Simon Rosenberg be members of the communication team in the Harris/Walz administration.
In the meantime we all do what we can in our own ways:
https://billalstrom.substack.com/p/ny-times-does-it-again
Thank you. I feel like Alice in Wonderland sometimes. After reading about this poll yesterday, today I'm trying to listen to "The Daily" (NYT), and it's all I can do to make it for five minutes without taking a break. Nate Cohen continues to talk about how Harris's messaging is faltering, but Trump's is strong, and his numbers are rising. Really? Promising a bloody effort to deport immigrants is gaining followers for him?
I'm in Texas. TEXAS. And what I'm seeing as I register new voters or having current voters verify their registration, is a determination that they will be registered, have what they need when they go to vote, and get their friends to do the same. With my older, white, more conservative-moderate friends, I'm seeing amazement that this sleaze-ball creep is still getting away over and over again with crimes, sexual assault, and fraud. Some may not share my excitement about Kamala, but they're in disbelief that this nincompoop is even being considered as qualified to serve.
Of course I'm dismayed when I see bad polls, and I get that a large percentage of people will still vote for Trump, but it's impossible for me to see him winning. (Not impossible enough that I won't keep registering voters every day, though.)
The resistant-to-declare Independent Voter is the one that flummoxes me. HOW can anyone not have a concrete opinion of which candidate is better suited to lead the most powerful nation in the world? “I’m just not sure” or “I don’t quite know enough about Kamala…” defies being alive. Is it just the deep satisfying self-identity of being a contrarian? That’s all I can think.
A lot of people have deep ambivalence about putting a woman as president. We no longer have an organized feminist movement, but we still have an organized patriarchy. I would rather have seen a man run against Trump. Trump’s success against all of the prosecutions has emboldened him and his supporters. I appreciate everything Robert is saying, but I am terrified for my children and grandchildren.
I am terrified, as well. This weekend I had to go to the emergency room. The EMT was putting the IV in and brought up the election. He said ‘I hate the guy but I’m going to vote for him” I asked why you would vote for someone you hate? He said “he’s strong and can handle Putin”. I almost said he doesn’t handle him, he emulates him! But, he was putting in my IV😂.
I agree that the NYT’s poll is flawed. However, I wonder if those who believe the race is very tight (and that Trump might possibly win) will be more motivated to vote. 🤞
I have no way to prove it, but I think enthusiasm about a candidate (and the attraction of a movement) are more effective for turnout than fear...
Democrats have both enthusiasm *and* fear working this time.
This is shameful, Joe! And scary!
Thank you for this. I don't know jack about statistics and polling, but I get the gist.
Thanks again, Robert for continuing to urge us to action! My sister has organized a postcard party this week. We’re hoping to send several 100 postcards to Georgia.
That's great GPE! I am having a postcard party on the 14th. We are sending postcards organized by "Postcards to Swing States" which sends out to registered Dems who have not been voting in recent elections. My sister in law started doing this recently after her husband received such a postcard a couple years ago. They both found out how impressive it is to receive a postcard written to them by another American.
That sounds like a great project. Georgia can be won.
FT6 sent over a million texts to GA and FL over the weekend.
The electorate is not set... yet. Millions of potential Harris voters are not registered ... yet. She trends 60% with women, the same with young people, 70% with tenants in the blue wall swing states. Now is the hour to expand our base significantly.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/all-volunteer-ops/volunteer
And please vote Dem all the way down the ballot so Dems can fix SCROTUS, abortion laws, expose Project 2025 and whatever else the Rs and Trump have broken
Daniel, that is excellent news. Thanks for providing the link.
Need volunteers to follow up with phone calls, canvassing ASAP to seal the deal.
Registration in Fl. ends Oct. 7 . Can register via smart phone.
Missed my Sunday football game! I can't watch and write postcards at the same time.(g). All for a good cause! I have met some wonderful people at the neighborhood party. Write On!
Robert, i wonder… It seems unlikely that a man who is unable to string together full sentences in his speeches would be capable of writing the message you quote in your newsletter tonight. So my question is - who is writing his deranged threatening posts?
It could be many, but my bet is on Stephen Miller. That guy is as extreme and hateful as they get.
Miller is Goebbels to T💩p’s Hitler. There ain’t no way around it.
He grew up in Santa Monica, Ca and went to my temple. It's crazy that a kid that grew up here in Cali could turn out to be such a creep. The Rabbi said he was always this way for some reason. Damaged goods from birth.
Thanks for sharing this. Santa Monica is a beautiful place. It’s hard to understand how this hate-filled guy could come from there.
Without a doubt, Stephen Miller.
Yes he is.
Exactly my question too Laurie.
If he can’t speak two coherent sentences, how does he write a long detailed paragraph with no spelling errors?
When you write, you have opportunities to correct the text. When you speak, the words are gone as soon as you utter them.
As I’ve aged, I sometimes find that expressing my ideas orally is freighted with hangups. If I felt compelled to fill in the silent spaces, to keep the conversation going, I might use poorly chosen words.
Trump also has staff write his tweets - especially Steve Miller. That’s how you know he didn’t write the tweet.
Listen to the 2016 "Inauguration" speech - That was not his composition, nor did he deliver with successful plans to address the key issues of his term
Yes, who is the "ghost writer" behind the Truth (!) Social posts, and why does he hate America?
because his followers do
Not to worry, Robert! I am hunkered down writing postcards as fast as I can. I am an advocate of leaving a "paper trail" for recipients to follow as they follow the path to their polling place!
And count me - as well as I'm sure many of your readers - among those who are your best friends. As Groucho Marx was credited as saying: "When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out; a best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun!'"
All kidding aside, here is Harris last Saturday at a Penzey's shop that sells spices in western Pennsylvania. Hugs all around for her supporters are shown in this 11-minute video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XgnIe86i-M
One question I have not heard asked: Since they will be stuck in space until February 2025, will Suni and Butch be able to vote...and have their votes counted?
Like Joyce Vance says, we’re all in this together.
Penzeys Spices is not just any old spice shop. Their support for progressive causes would have them rounded up with the rest of us. They do mail order:
https://www.penzeys.com/
Good question about poor Suni and Butch. The answer starts with the absentee voting rules of their home states, which most likely would require mail service…sigh…
I have been ordering from Penzey's online for the past few years, and love their spices. When they have sales on my favorites, I stock up. They often offer a $50 gift card for $35 for a limited time. The glass jars are always wrapped in packing paper with more packing paper inside of very sturdy boxes. Bill Penzey must be quite a character in real life.
I love Penzey's! We used to have a retail shop but it closed down :-( so now I wait for a deal where they reduce the min $$ to get free shipping.
As you know, I love Penzeys. They lost quite a bit of business when they started talking about how the Republicans are not good for democracy. But Karma is a funny thing. After the VP’s visit there were so many posts on Threads with people talking about their favorite spices, that I’m sure their business increased substantially. 😀
I like their spices too. If you saw Bill's last email, he says the volume of hate mail has increased more than usual after her visit. Even Fox News smeared him. What I bet will happen is that sales will go through the roof. In fact, I need to get in an order for some Vanilla Sugar. :D
Thanks, Ellie, for adding the info about Penzeys. I've shopped there by mail, of course. I get the feeling they'll be proud to be in a cell alongside us!
I've been using Penzey's products since before the 2020 election! Love their message and their quality products. I have a Penzey heart from one of their bumper stickers on the back window of my truck here in SC. 😊 'Heal the World'... 💗
Wow, "Heal the World" love that! Thanks, Natalie.
Penzey has a couple of taglines they have used for a long time and that they offer on merch on their site - 'Embrace Hope', 'Heal the World... Cook Dinner Tonight', 'Love People. Cook Them Tasty Food', and the latest one on a line of hoodies they have is a quote - 'Kindness Can't Sit Down Simply Because Anger Has Stood Up'. 😊 I have a colorful Penzey 'Embrace Hope' magnet on my fridge the last few years too - a good reminder as I dealt with cancer treatments, and now the monitoring process. Some days being deliberate about reaching out for that spark of hope has been tougher than others, both for my own personal issues as well as the wider social/political spectrum.
Thanks so much for this, Natalie. May all your bad days be behind you.
Watched the Penzeys visit video yesterday and promptly ordered from them, even though I rarely cook anymore - and even worse - had not opened an order from a year ago.
During the RNC, when a news outlet was filming a confrontation between Rethug attendees and a protestor out in front of the convention site, did you notice the Penzey's shop with a big sign in their window just down the street, in the background of that incident? (They took down the sign immediately after the shooting incident with tffg.) The policewoman told the Rethug to "just keep walking, sir, do not engage, just keep moving."
We have a Penzey's retail store near us in San Diego. I sometimes reply to the owner of the Penzey's company that I appreciate the courage he shows to be unabashedly liberal! I buy my spices there just for that reason alone, although they have a huge variety of spaces, great promotional deals, and some wonderful recipes. I just love everything about them! They are a business to be supported!!!! MAGA supporters won't buy from them, I'm sure. Penzey's is our Pillow guy, our Chick-a-Filet - a place I can shop without hesitation that I'm supporting some scumbag!
We have one here in Portland, OR. Haven't been in a while, but now I'm inspired to give them some of my business. Great shop.
Having friends like you and so many other readers on this forum keeps me plugging along, writing postcards (this week to AZ), talking to people, wearing my Kamala t-shirts. If, god forbid, the worst happens in November, I know I'm part of a supportive community that will lift me up. That said, I remain optimistic. We have what we need to prevail!
Wonderful comment, MaryB. Between Robert's friends and our good Professor Richardson, the jail cells are gonna be overcrowded for sure!
I have never heard a clearer or more concise phrasing of the situation:
"He is an avatar for their anger".
It is an incredible statement. How did a large portion of the North American population come in to this state? Is it extant worldwide, awaiting similar avatars anywhere?
I want to think of us as a generally good-natured, hospitable, caring, even loving people. I want to believe that a goodly majority of us are.
To me it has been obvious for years that dt represents the worst in human depravity. It only becomes more obvious over time.
Robert, you have helped me face the truth about why at least a 1/3 of the North American adult voting population seems so intensely deluded. They must carry that anger madness within them and require an avatar to express it for them.
I am on my knees in prayer that there are truly enough of us committed to actual living of wholesome values.... that we can and will carry the day.
I am leaning in on that prayer.
And donating everything I possibly can to it in time, energy, and money.
I trust everyone who reads this column is doing the same.
Thank you, Robert, for your rallying call.
"He is an avatar for their anger."
Yes that popped for me too. It’s good to remember or realize that anger is always in the second wave of emotion.
The sequence invariably follows the same path. First is perception of something happening. This perception/noticing/seeing is deeply filtered or shaped in a gazillion ways. Filtering at the level of thoughts allows some thoughts through while blocking others thoughts from awareness. Part of this process leaves us with expectations. When something happens that we are not expecting the first thing that happens is surprise or startle or even shock. This is easy to see in very young people and displays in a much briefer way as we get older and better at hiding our reactions.
Once the first reaction to something happening and the surprise passes, THEN comes the anger which is actually the generation of a large charge of bodily energy TO DEAL WITH THE THREAT.
Because of this sequence from surprise/threat to generating energy to deal with the perceived threat, which makes perfect sense by the way, the only effective way to deal with an angry person is to have them get back to the initial reaction of surprise/startle and NOT try to talk argue them out of their feeling angry. The anger isn’t the issue. The anger is the right reaction to how something occurred for them.
The trick is getting the unnoticed unacknowledged first impression back up to awareness. The reason this is so difficult is that for the most part it means recognizing and saying “I was afraid.” I was afraid you would leave me. I’m afraid of being alone. What you said or did hurt me and I was afraid that you would leave or hurt me again if I said something. I am afraid to work that much. I’m afraid I can’t do what needs to be done. I’m afraid I’m not smart enough, or strong enough, or know enough, etc., etc., etc. Regarding political ravings - I’m afraid of communists, immigrants, my children being groomed to be gay, the US collapsing, the world collapsing, fill in about everything out of Trump’s mouth. Notice the formula: generate fear first, then anger naturally follows. The acting out of anger is then fear-based. This is Trump’s not-so-secret sauce, keep poking at the amygdala, keep stirring up fear to get people to take action with the energy (called anger) provided they the fear. The angry mob effect.
The point is that some form of fear is where anger comes from. Fear is anger’s mother.
Create a safe space for fear to be acknowledged, accepted, and released and the vision of monsters evaporates, the darkest clouds seemingly magically vanish and the sun or stars reappears.
What keeps the deep prohibition from saying “I am afraid” is the fear keeping us back from the needed actions and allows the darkness to fester.
Every story arc has the hero taking action in the face of something fearful. The triumph of not being stopped by fear is why we watch the movies and read the stories.
Anger is good in its getting us energized and ready for battle. The question is what are we afraid of and are we going to be stopped by it or continue to take the needed actions while holding fear as our ally keeping us alert along the adventure?
Remember, we are not afraid alone on this journey, we are afraid together.
We all need to take many actions before the elections. Let them be inspired by a commitment to goodness, to truth, to beauty. Let’s be moved and touched by all the best in humanity. Let’s accept and even welcome the demons that threaten us with isolation and stand strong, bright, and together, one day, one step at a time.
All very good and right, esp last paragraph. Thanks!
Bern, that was a beautiful summary. I keep asking why are we here and you just summarized it perfectly. Fear is the mother of anger. Thank
Worshiping their avatar and American democracy be damned! Now there's the equivalent of Kool-Aid, for ya'. Trump or death. Oops, I mean, Trump even if death!
I like the rise in new forms of journalism, like this and other newsletters through Substack. We saw other 'content creators' given space at the DNC, to the affront of mainstream media stars. Joyce Vance was just at the 'Texas Tribune Festival, a celebration of non-profit journalism where thousands of people get together for three days of fascinating panels'. Let's support these efforts as one way to send a message to MSM.
As I might previously have posted on this site, I write to distinguish between voter suppression at the front end (referencing the casting of votes) and at the back end (referencing their tabulation). While the latter might seem the more disheartening and beyond our control, I would note, aside from the 100+ attorneys prepared to work tirelessly to ensure elections up and down the ballot are both fair and secured, elections attorney Marc Elias regularly presses his subscribers to remain mindful of irregularities within their respective communities as a way to participle in insuring security of our elections. I raise this point to underscore that nothing is beyond our individual control, including MAGA’s plan to seize or hold control of seats whether or not they win more votes.
Agree,Barbara Jo ! Fellow subscriber to Marc Elias/Democracy Docket and heartened by his regular emails detailing their tireless work while remaining mindful of what is happening in my MAGA community. If I might add, my state ALCU org is also a valuable resource.ACLU FL lists problems voters may encounter at the polls and how to report along with contact #’s.
https://www.aclufl.org/en/know-your-rights/know-your-rights-while-voting
Kathy, Thanks so much for mentioning the ACLU, a reference I will be sure to pass on in future postings.
I'm sharing Joyce Vance's sub-stack so that those who don't know her can have a look. She's awfully smart. https://open.substack.com/pub/joycevance/p/the-week-ahead-7dd?r=f38fk&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
Yes, Robert gets to the heart of the irony: The free press glosses over the biggest threat to the free press. Fitting, though, of Alice's Wonderland, which is where we find ourselves.
Can I suggest you don't mention Trump again between today and the election ... simply not mention him whatsoever - where he is, what he's doing, what's he saying. Just completely ignore him - and concentrate on where Harris and Walz are and what they're doing? I can't see how even mentioning Trump again is useful.
If he drops dead ... okay you can tell em ... but otherwise why mention anything about what he says or does. What is the point? All your readers don't need reminders he is a demented pig.
I wish I could. That isn't going to happen. I fear that Trump has succeeded in exhausting you, which is his strategy.
I disagree. We need to know how deranged the Republican candidate is or WE are living in a silo. I appreciate that Robert reports on what the media will not to keep us focused and determined. Thank you for blaring the alarm, Robert.
I fully agree with Lanette. We must know what the enemy is up to. We sure as hell cannot get it from the mainstream media. We only have Robert and the few others like him on Substack.
I have to disagree. I would prefer to know what my enemy is doing and where he is at all times. I don't need to hear all the insanity, but I need to know what he is doing. I have so many folks in my world who have never heard of Project 2025 and that Trump was involved. They did not know that he finally admitted he lost the election. Anyway, I need to know what he is doing and saying to get the word out to all who think he is great and the world's savior.
I like that idea. I'll be relieved when he's out of the picture. The news I want to hear is that he's been confined to his home for the rest of his life. I don't think he'll be sent to prison but he does need to be confined and have no further exposure in the news. I think that needs to be part of the sentence...no more coverage with the exception of his death.
Confined at home with no means to post online.... or call into Fox News
And no more golf, no more riding around in his golf cart, and no travel for 20 years.
Have you noticed there has not been ONE day since 2016 that orange oompah loompah’s name hasn’t been uttered? Every. Single. Day. From all media types. Makes me vomit.
It will make you crazy trying to understand crazy! Dun-old is an angry old man and conman crazy. He's selling himself and in sales you learn to never take 'no' for an answer, you just look for different approaches. That's what he's doing. He's a political predator stalking the presidency. I'm not surprised by anything he says or does now. What continues to baffle me is how many people have bought his con and see him as sane. We have to remain grounded and not get caught up in any type of bizarre response.
I am reading a book that I highly recommend to all. “The Confidence Game: Why We Fall For It Every Time,” by Maria Konnikova. For the first time I am beginning to understand how Trump has managed to gain control over the minds of so many.
Thank you for that reference. I'll look for that book.
The one on the lower right looks like hands folded in prayer. Maybe the Universe is praying for us.
OH MY! You're right Bruce, it does look like hands in prayer. I hope the universe is praying for us! Good call....
WE are staring our "October Surprise" , right before us, in the eyes. Release of The Apprentice is October eleven. This, fellow patriots, is maybe, our gift from Heaven. After reading descriptions of the work, I understand why trump's attorneys are working to prevent it''s inevitable release. Not flattering as Roy "Dr. Frankenstein" Cohn (depicted by Jeremy Strong, appears to be a very impactful depiction of mentorship from the staff at Hell, Inc. This, coupled with his debate deflate tomorrow, should help any undecideds to get a good idea of how to cast their votes. Keep the boilers steaming people, flank speed ahead. Here in Florida, Rick Snot does not have the means to promote his brand as anything else but pure evil. Debbie Muscarel-Powell is well positioned to end his sorry career. She is a good investment in American Democracy.
" it is the surest sign that we are on the path to permanent victory" There will be no permanent victory; we're on a clear path to victory in 2024 and possibly the beginning of a turnaround in state governments, but we will need to keep up our attention and awareness to prevent a resurgence in 26, 28, and beyond. More importantly, old folks like me need to pass a sense of urgency along to our successors. Permanent victory is found only in Paradise, and we just get occasional tastes while we're here.
Agree. No such thing as a permanent victory. The price of democracy is vigilance, postcard writing/door knocking, and a dose of anxiety.
Dave, I very much appreciate your perspective and would hope more of us would recognize MAGA as a symptom, just as the Mandate for Leadership released in 1981 (a precursor to Project 2025) was, whose legacy dates back to Benjamin Franklin’s “…a republic if you can keep it.”
Thanks Barbara Jo. I think that the recognition will grow as long as we keep focused on it.
One of the truly great ones by Robert today. I wish I could do it justice. All I can say is follow it and do the best you can do to prevent Trump from being elected again, pray for our country. Words fail,
Trump is deranged and demented. His behavior will get worse in the next 2 months. It's ugly and offensive to us! Now is when we must buckle up and try harder, do more, and narrow our focus on winning this election.