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Joe's avatar

Not only did NYT promote their outlier result with the claim that it's the only legitimate poll, it's not a legitimate topline. Harris wins Independents by 4 or 5 with likely voters depending on the question. As they have done ALL YEAR, Times/Siena has used an R+ weight to turn what should be a result right in the range of the polling average into a Trump lead in order to create that headline before the debate. If you look back to June, they did the same thing then.

If you look at the methodology you can see them admit this. They manipulated the data to a set goal of R+2. In the past 40 years, there has never been an R+ electorate in a Presidential election. This is an intentional choice to mislead.

There's other issues with this poll (12% of likely voters did not vote in 2020, 2020 voters are Biden+3 when he won by about 5, Trump somehow wins 97% of his 2020 voters, both Black and Hispanic voters are underweighted at 10% when they're 13% of the electorate...) but the net impact of all of this is that the "result" wasn't an outlier, it was a lie.

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@GPE (BlueSky) - WNY via CO&NJ's avatar

Thanks again, Robert for continuing to urge us to action! My sister has organized a postcard party this week. We’re hoping to send several 100 postcards to Georgia.

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