As you say Robert Hubbell, don't believe the polls. We know what happened with Hillary Clinton in 2016. But even assuming they are a reasonably accurate marker for current sentiment, I really don't understand why the polls are leaning Republican. Where is all the ire that Democrats said they feel about saving democracy and protecting the rule of law, women's rights, gun control, and the imbalance and overreach of the Supreme Court to name a few? Are Americans really just about the money in our bank accounts and stock portfolios? Look, I'm financially strained, too. But the worse part is how, as you say, we tend to blame the party in power if our finances go south or praise them when our finances are better. Why do we keep falling prey to the same lame logic? Don't we have eyes to see that the entire world is saddled and struggling under high inflation? Can't we see past the pain of high prices to accept the fact that the COVID pandemic led to drastic supply chain and production problems, worsened by the greed of those companies that can hold us hostage with ridiculously high prices? Add on the twisted politics of Trump-Putin-Saudi Arabia and viola-- we get massive inflation worldwide.
Under Trump, the Democrats fought for and got a lifeline to millions of Americans with the unemployment bonus, relief checks, PPP loans to small and not so small businesses (Trump and his cronies cashed in big time for millions that were supposed to go to small companies, not mega corporations.) In the face of all of this, if some Democrats decide not to vote, Independents sway to the right, and Republicans back their own and gain control of the House and/ or Senate, to me that is a moral failure due to a stubborn refusal to see past our own noses. Biden's accomplishments in less than two years are nothing short of stunning, especially in the setting of Stonewall McConnell, Manchin, and Sinema. It's like The New Deal on steroids! Infrastructure alone is worthy of praise. Four previous presidents couldn't get it done. Biden did. This will generate hundreds of thousands of jobs, plus repair an aged-out network of roads, bridges and water systems. He got climate control and finally the Feds will negotiate drug prices for Medicare. So why is Biden's approval rating still in the 40's? We should be supporting him and show gratitude by voting to expand the Democratic majority in the House and Senate. Many of these wins would likely disappear under Republican leadership.
Maybe the ugly truth is some of us don't truly want him to continue to make progress for the working class and poor. Do we really want equal pay for women? Do we really want the reinstatement of the assault weapons ban? Do we really want Blacks to gain financial equity in housing and jobs? I could go on and on. Sometimes I get the sense that sickening elitism, sexism, and bigotry are at work here. If all people do better, can obtain gainful employment, secure housing, a descent education, and have access to quality, affordable health care--it's a win-win for them, the economy, and the collective we. Historically, it also leads to less crime and desperation. So what do Americans really want? Some may feel hopeless from a lifetime of discrimination and deprivation. I can at least empathize with them. But, relinquishing their right to vote is just what those who push voter suppression laws want. Give up, don't vote, what's the point? The point is why do they fight so hard to obstruct it if voting weren't a powerful tool? Our vote is our voice, our voice matters, and you better believe our vote matters, too. I hope the polls are wrong or will change in the Democrats favor. But most of all, I pray to God that enough people will awaken from their media-fueled, self-induced coma, and vote for the Democrats to retain or even grow their majority in the Senate and the House. Amen!
Why can't we live and let live in our society? Why do some people, especially male people it seems, see gayness as a horrid disease they're afraid they'll catch? Aren't "don't say gay" laws in violation of First Amendment speech? Why can't we let a person love whomever they want to? No, I will not be a participant in the theocracy that the Extreme Court seems to have in mind. We, the People, all of us of all genders this time!
I sincerely hope your optimistic assessment of the result of turnout proves to be right the morning of November 9, Robert, and if so I will join you in a celebratory dance on the streets across the western SFV.
But I remember the 1974 Democratic primary campaign for State Controller, which the best politician I ever worked for lost to a stooge named Ken Cory who campaigned as "The man the oil companies fear the most!" despite the occupant of the office of State Controller of California having exactly zip/zero/nada/none/no way/definitely not! any influence on the price of a gallon of gasoline anywhere. But it was six months after the 1973 oil embargo that introduced Americans to gas lines and raised the price from 25 cents a gallon to 60 cents a gallon (I'm sure you have been gasping to drive past one of the "cheap" stations here and see regular gas at $6.19/gallon as I did today - and don't even think about the price being charged at the others). And that guy won with that slogan. And went on to win the general in November with it. And then spent three terms demonstrating he was the worthless piece of shit and tool of "the interests" we knew he was from the beginning.
Mencken has yet to be disproven from his observation back during the Scopes Monkey Trial 98 years ago that "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public."
The GOP just can't keep the government out of peoples' bedrooms. They claim they're the party of non-interference and Reagan said "Government is the problem". I guess they can't help hypocrisy, it being their daily bread. But come-on: "The first thing MAGA extremists will do is attempt to stigmatize LGBTQ people by introducing a national “Don’t Say Gay” bill on steroids. See The Guardian, Republicans aim to pass national ‘don’t say gay’ law. The law is a stalking horse, pretending to be a prohibition on the use of federal funds in discussing LGBTQ issues with children under ten."
I hope Dems and Independents don't let this one last voting opportunity go up in smoke. Protect your liberty: VOTE BLUE.
Our Kitchen Table group is in the last week of postcarding before election. Our little group picks up postcards, addresses and stamps from my porch after 3 on Thursdays. We have sent over 9,000 postcards since January 2022. We know there are many similar clusters of good folks texting, calling and writing. Be one of them. There are a lot of kitchen tables in America.
"At this point, the media should be viewed as a giant spin machine that has kicked into warp drive. Ignore it and focus on getting more people to the polls."
Yes! Absolutely this is the case. The major media in this country is owned by a handful of giant corporations, and its news and commentary actively promotes a corporate political agenda, which is mostly a right wing agenda.
At last a court makes the obvious point about subpoenas and privilege. Having one doesn't mean you don't have to show up. You can raise the privilege for individual questions. Why this seems to have escaped the members of the trump Subpoena Resistance Brigade has been beyond me for both court and congressional hearing matters.
I’m a little angry this morning. Let’s stop talking about Trump and focus who is on the ballot instead. If MAGA candidates win there will be huge challenges to our lives that would take years to recover from if ever. We have the best candidates like Beasley, Ryan, Demings and Fetterman who are not getting the support they need from the DNC. Biden is not on the ballot either so let’s focus on the people who matter. The Republicans and people like Rick Scott and a Kevin McCarthy have clearly told us what they will do when they control things and are using the assumptive close technique which is telling people what they will do as if it is a done deal. We need to change the narrative. The bottom line is that most voters have made up their minds. It’s who shows up at the polls in November that determines who wins. The ball is in our court.
Admittedly I have never been as involved in political volunteering as I am now, but it sure feels like pollsters and reporters are tripping over themselves to come up with SOMEthing new everyday, and I am finding huge almost hourly swings all over the place a little hard to believe. Here in TX, I sure don’t see the folks who were upset about Dobbs having moved on to gas prices.
I recommend following Simon Rosenberg @SimonWDC, whom I believe Robert has written about before. Simon looks at actual registration and election data, and that is hopeful.
Lastly, I am tempted to forego Twitter until after the election. At least currently, for me, it’s an unbalanced view of the news.
Wow! This was outstanding. Thank you for continued insight, relentless optimism and hope. Having grown up in a suburb of Motor City, I particularly appreciated (and was saddened by) the allusions to the price of gas.
I have long despised the continuous reporting of poll numbers. Certainly, I can see that polling has some value to campaigns but it has no value for voters. Are we supposed to be thinking that if a majority of people think a certain way, we are supposed to too? Reporters should be reporting on what has already happened, not predicting what they think is going to happen.
I also think that polling is likely to be much less accurate that in the past. Many people simply do not answer their phones if they do not recognize the number. If they do answer, how many simply refuse to participate in the poll. And as you have pointed out, polls do not capture newly registered voters and mainly focus on likely voters.
Thank you Robert. As Jessica Craven notes in her "Chop Wood, Carry Water", "Early voting numbers continue to be record-setting. Good. And the phrase I keep hearing, over and over, is this: 'We are within the margin of effort.' Not error, mind you."
"Effort."
Jessica's energy is amazing. She is an incredible resource for action. I am so grateful she is on our side!
Snyder talked about larger forces and resisting normalizing their message.
Indigenous scholars speak about the tenet of Resurgence. "Resurgence means to have the courage and imagination to envision life beyond the State." (Corntassel, J. Re-envisioning Resurgence: Indigenous Pathways to Decolonizeation and Sustainable Self-Determination" in Decolonization-Indigeneity, Education and Society, 2012 p 89)
The state is a large force threatening existence.
So this is something quiet common in our time, but has also been coming for a long time, and has come to many groups. I don't say this to generalize everything but to understand that as Robert says, we don't have to stand still. My prof (T. Beeds, Laurentian University) said, we are not trees. We do not have to stand still.
“it will be a sad commentary on the knowledge of the American voter about who controls gas prices. Oil is a global commodity whose price is controlled by producers; refiners and distributors control the price of gas at the pump. Note that “the President of the United States” and “Congress” are missing from the list of entities controlling gas prices.”
Yet when asked, the Dems and the Administration does t tell this to the American people or share gas prices and inflation rates from around the world. The R’s main message is that the D’s are responsible for inflation - yet no effort is spent correcting this view.
Inflation is an issue in the GLOBAL economy, the Dems policies didn’t cause it. Biden and Congress can have only SOME effect on it and the Biden administration really is doing all it can to help bring down inflation in this country.
Again - if anyone has a contact inside the Democratic Party apparatus, PLEASE SHARE THIS IDEA. we should be flooding the media with this
point.
WE SHOULD BE FLOODING ALL MEDIA WITH THUS POINT. -- it’s the most important thing on the voters’ minds and we are blowing it.
As you say Robert Hubbell, don't believe the polls. We know what happened with Hillary Clinton in 2016. But even assuming they are a reasonably accurate marker for current sentiment, I really don't understand why the polls are leaning Republican. Where is all the ire that Democrats said they feel about saving democracy and protecting the rule of law, women's rights, gun control, and the imbalance and overreach of the Supreme Court to name a few? Are Americans really just about the money in our bank accounts and stock portfolios? Look, I'm financially strained, too. But the worse part is how, as you say, we tend to blame the party in power if our finances go south or praise them when our finances are better. Why do we keep falling prey to the same lame logic? Don't we have eyes to see that the entire world is saddled and struggling under high inflation? Can't we see past the pain of high prices to accept the fact that the COVID pandemic led to drastic supply chain and production problems, worsened by the greed of those companies that can hold us hostage with ridiculously high prices? Add on the twisted politics of Trump-Putin-Saudi Arabia and viola-- we get massive inflation worldwide.
Under Trump, the Democrats fought for and got a lifeline to millions of Americans with the unemployment bonus, relief checks, PPP loans to small and not so small businesses (Trump and his cronies cashed in big time for millions that were supposed to go to small companies, not mega corporations.) In the face of all of this, if some Democrats decide not to vote, Independents sway to the right, and Republicans back their own and gain control of the House and/ or Senate, to me that is a moral failure due to a stubborn refusal to see past our own noses. Biden's accomplishments in less than two years are nothing short of stunning, especially in the setting of Stonewall McConnell, Manchin, and Sinema. It's like The New Deal on steroids! Infrastructure alone is worthy of praise. Four previous presidents couldn't get it done. Biden did. This will generate hundreds of thousands of jobs, plus repair an aged-out network of roads, bridges and water systems. He got climate control and finally the Feds will negotiate drug prices for Medicare. So why is Biden's approval rating still in the 40's? We should be supporting him and show gratitude by voting to expand the Democratic majority in the House and Senate. Many of these wins would likely disappear under Republican leadership.
Maybe the ugly truth is some of us don't truly want him to continue to make progress for the working class and poor. Do we really want equal pay for women? Do we really want the reinstatement of the assault weapons ban? Do we really want Blacks to gain financial equity in housing and jobs? I could go on and on. Sometimes I get the sense that sickening elitism, sexism, and bigotry are at work here. If all people do better, can obtain gainful employment, secure housing, a descent education, and have access to quality, affordable health care--it's a win-win for them, the economy, and the collective we. Historically, it also leads to less crime and desperation. So what do Americans really want? Some may feel hopeless from a lifetime of discrimination and deprivation. I can at least empathize with them. But, relinquishing their right to vote is just what those who push voter suppression laws want. Give up, don't vote, what's the point? The point is why do they fight so hard to obstruct it if voting weren't a powerful tool? Our vote is our voice, our voice matters, and you better believe our vote matters, too. I hope the polls are wrong or will change in the Democrats favor. But most of all, I pray to God that enough people will awaken from their media-fueled, self-induced coma, and vote for the Democrats to retain or even grow their majority in the Senate and the House. Amen!
Why can't we live and let live in our society? Why do some people, especially male people it seems, see gayness as a horrid disease they're afraid they'll catch? Aren't "don't say gay" laws in violation of First Amendment speech? Why can't we let a person love whomever they want to? No, I will not be a participant in the theocracy that the Extreme Court seems to have in mind. We, the People, all of us of all genders this time!
I sincerely hope your optimistic assessment of the result of turnout proves to be right the morning of November 9, Robert, and if so I will join you in a celebratory dance on the streets across the western SFV.
But I remember the 1974 Democratic primary campaign for State Controller, which the best politician I ever worked for lost to a stooge named Ken Cory who campaigned as "The man the oil companies fear the most!" despite the occupant of the office of State Controller of California having exactly zip/zero/nada/none/no way/definitely not! any influence on the price of a gallon of gasoline anywhere. But it was six months after the 1973 oil embargo that introduced Americans to gas lines and raised the price from 25 cents a gallon to 60 cents a gallon (I'm sure you have been gasping to drive past one of the "cheap" stations here and see regular gas at $6.19/gallon as I did today - and don't even think about the price being charged at the others). And that guy won with that slogan. And went on to win the general in November with it. And then spent three terms demonstrating he was the worthless piece of shit and tool of "the interests" we knew he was from the beginning.
Mencken has yet to be disproven from his observation back during the Scopes Monkey Trial 98 years ago that "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public."
The GOP just can't keep the government out of peoples' bedrooms. They claim they're the party of non-interference and Reagan said "Government is the problem". I guess they can't help hypocrisy, it being their daily bread. But come-on: "The first thing MAGA extremists will do is attempt to stigmatize LGBTQ people by introducing a national “Don’t Say Gay” bill on steroids. See The Guardian, Republicans aim to pass national ‘don’t say gay’ law. The law is a stalking horse, pretending to be a prohibition on the use of federal funds in discussing LGBTQ issues with children under ten."
I hope Dems and Independents don't let this one last voting opportunity go up in smoke. Protect your liberty: VOTE BLUE.
Our Kitchen Table group is in the last week of postcarding before election. Our little group picks up postcards, addresses and stamps from my porch after 3 on Thursdays. We have sent over 9,000 postcards since January 2022. We know there are many similar clusters of good folks texting, calling and writing. Be one of them. There are a lot of kitchen tables in America.
"At this point, the media should be viewed as a giant spin machine that has kicked into warp drive. Ignore it and focus on getting more people to the polls."
Yes! Absolutely this is the case. The major media in this country is owned by a handful of giant corporations, and its news and commentary actively promotes a corporate political agenda, which is mostly a right wing agenda.
At last a court makes the obvious point about subpoenas and privilege. Having one doesn't mean you don't have to show up. You can raise the privilege for individual questions. Why this seems to have escaped the members of the trump Subpoena Resistance Brigade has been beyond me for both court and congressional hearing matters.
I’m a little angry this morning. Let’s stop talking about Trump and focus who is on the ballot instead. If MAGA candidates win there will be huge challenges to our lives that would take years to recover from if ever. We have the best candidates like Beasley, Ryan, Demings and Fetterman who are not getting the support they need from the DNC. Biden is not on the ballot either so let’s focus on the people who matter. The Republicans and people like Rick Scott and a Kevin McCarthy have clearly told us what they will do when they control things and are using the assumptive close technique which is telling people what they will do as if it is a done deal. We need to change the narrative. The bottom line is that most voters have made up their minds. It’s who shows up at the polls in November that determines who wins. The ball is in our court.
Admittedly I have never been as involved in political volunteering as I am now, but it sure feels like pollsters and reporters are tripping over themselves to come up with SOMEthing new everyday, and I am finding huge almost hourly swings all over the place a little hard to believe. Here in TX, I sure don’t see the folks who were upset about Dobbs having moved on to gas prices.
I recommend following Simon Rosenberg @SimonWDC, whom I believe Robert has written about before. Simon looks at actual registration and election data, and that is hopeful.
Lastly, I am tempted to forego Twitter until after the election. At least currently, for me, it’s an unbalanced view of the news.
Listen to Michael Moore and be heartened:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/rumble-with-michael-moore/id1490354763?i=1000580722433
Wow! This was outstanding. Thank you for continued insight, relentless optimism and hope. Having grown up in a suburb of Motor City, I particularly appreciated (and was saddened by) the allusions to the price of gas.
I have long despised the continuous reporting of poll numbers. Certainly, I can see that polling has some value to campaigns but it has no value for voters. Are we supposed to be thinking that if a majority of people think a certain way, we are supposed to too? Reporters should be reporting on what has already happened, not predicting what they think is going to happen.
I also think that polling is likely to be much less accurate that in the past. Many people simply do not answer their phones if they do not recognize the number. If they do answer, how many simply refuse to participate in the poll. And as you have pointed out, polls do not capture newly registered voters and mainly focus on likely voters.
Thank you Robert. As Jessica Craven notes in her "Chop Wood, Carry Water", "Early voting numbers continue to be record-setting. Good. And the phrase I keep hearing, over and over, is this: 'We are within the margin of effort.' Not error, mind you."
"Effort."
Jessica's energy is amazing. She is an incredible resource for action. I am so grateful she is on our side!
https://chopwoodcarrywaterdailyactions.substack.com/p/chop-wood-carry-water-1020-798
The "media" is as liberal as the corporations that own them.
Yesterday I listened to Prof. Snyder talk about essence vs existence and how many believed Zelensky would leave as his existence was threatened by a large force. Those of us who have faced this probably did not think he would leave. https://snyder.substack.com/p/thinking-truth-and-freedom-with-zelenskyi?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2#details
Snyder talked about larger forces and resisting normalizing their message.
Indigenous scholars speak about the tenet of Resurgence. "Resurgence means to have the courage and imagination to envision life beyond the State." (Corntassel, J. Re-envisioning Resurgence: Indigenous Pathways to Decolonizeation and Sustainable Self-Determination" in Decolonization-Indigeneity, Education and Society, 2012 p 89)
The state is a large force threatening existence.
So this is something quiet common in our time, but has also been coming for a long time, and has come to many groups. I don't say this to generalize everything but to understand that as Robert says, we don't have to stand still. My prof (T. Beeds, Laurentian University) said, we are not trees. We do not have to stand still.
Robert, you just noted
“it will be a sad commentary on the knowledge of the American voter about who controls gas prices. Oil is a global commodity whose price is controlled by producers; refiners and distributors control the price of gas at the pump. Note that “the President of the United States” and “Congress” are missing from the list of entities controlling gas prices.”
Yet when asked, the Dems and the Administration does t tell this to the American people or share gas prices and inflation rates from around the world. The R’s main message is that the D’s are responsible for inflation - yet no effort is spent correcting this view.
Inflation is an issue in the GLOBAL economy, the Dems policies didn’t cause it. Biden and Congress can have only SOME effect on it and the Biden administration really is doing all it can to help bring down inflation in this country.
Again - if anyone has a contact inside the Democratic Party apparatus, PLEASE SHARE THIS IDEA. we should be flooding the media with this
point.
WE SHOULD BE FLOODING ALL MEDIA WITH THUS POINT. -- it’s the most important thing on the voters’ minds and we are blowing it.