The media spin machine.

October 21, 2022

          Nearly every media outlet has begun “Election Night” coverage even though the real Election Night is two-and-a-half weeks away. In the absence of actual vote totals to report on, media outlets are treating polls as election results. To state the obvious, polls are not elections. Unfortunately, treating polls as if they are election results (rather than predictions) can lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy by depressing voter turnout for the party that is allegedly “behind” in the polls. Do not let that happen. There is ample time to affect the result of the 2022 midterms.

          We are not potted plants, we are not sheep, and I hope we are not naive enough to believe that polling results are free of political spin. For reasons that deserve scrutiny in the future, most media outlets in America are controlled by conservative interests promoting the partisan agenda of the MAGA-GOP. For the moment, we must accept the abuse of the American airwaves by dark money and overcome it by exercising the foundational right in the Constitution—the right to choose our representatives by voting. If we do that in sufficient numbers, we will prevail.

After two years of campaigning for the midterms, it will all come down to turnout. It always does. We prevailed in 2018 and 2020; we can do so in 2022. Don’t let any pollster or media personality tell you otherwise.

The GOP tips its hand on agenda in the House.

          Republicans may be getting ahead of themselves, tipping their hand about their agenda in the House before election results have been tallied. The MAGA-GOP assumes it will win back control of Congress because they believe that the price of gas is the only issue that matters to voters in 2022. If they are correct, it will be a sad commentary on the knowledge of the American voter about who controls gas prices. Oil is a global commodity whose price is controlled by producers; refiners and distributors control the price of gas at the pump. Note that “the President of the United States” and “Congress” are missing from the list of entities controlling gas prices. And yet, there is a consistent correlation between gas prices and the favorability rating of the president. See Gas Prices and Presidential Approval - Rasmussen Reports.

          So, what does the MAGA-GOP plan to do if it wins control of the House? They revealed two of their agenda items this week. Read on!

National “Don’t Say Gay Legislation.” The first thing MAGA extremists will do is attempt to stigmatize LGBTQ people by introducing a national “Don’t Say Gay” bill on steroids. See The Guardian, Republicans aim to pass national ‘don’t say gay’ law. The law is a stalking horse, pretending to be a prohibition on the use of federal funds in discussing LGBTQ issues with children under ten. But it is so broad and vague, and its enforcement mechanism is so drastic it will effectively chill any federal institution from discussing LGBTQ issues if children could be present. Alejandra Caraballo tweeted as follows:

House Republicans introduced a bill that would ban any discussion or material in federally funded programs about LGBTQ people in any event with children under 10 years old. This is a federal "Don't Say Gay" bill.

Universities, public schools, hospitals, medical clinics, etc. could all be defunded if they host any event discussing LGBTQ people and children could be present. The way they define "sexually oriented material" simply includes anything about LGBTQ people.

It includes a private right of action against any government official AND private entity for a violation. This is SB8-style bounty lawsuits against anyone accepting federal funds. This will be a ban on all discussion of LGBTQ people in any entity that received federal funds.

          Readers of this newsletter sometimes bemoan the fact that Democrats put too much emphasis on “identity politics.” In fact, it is Republicans who are engaging in identity politics by discriminating on the basis of racial and sexual identity. The fact that Democrats rise to defend targeted groups does not amount to “identity politics”—but if it does, we need more of it, not less.

          By preemptively announcing a national purge of discussion of LGBTQ topics at all federally funded institutions, Republicans are hoping to increase turnout among their extremist base. Democrats must spread the word about this cynical and mean-spirited effort to stigmatize LGBTQ people. We must spur turnout among friends, family, and strangers who do not believe that America should take the first steps down the dark road that Hitler invited his base to follow in pre-war Germany.  

          GOP plans to abandon Ukraine. Kevin McCarthy said earlier this week that if the GOP controls the House, it will not give Ukraine a “blank check.” To be clear, no one has yet to provide Ukraine with a “blank check.” Indeed, in his two video appearances before Congress, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has made urgent but unavailing appeals for more sophisticated weapons systems and US involvement in providing air cover.

          But the US’s cautious approach to providing weapons and support to Ukraine hasn’t stopped Kevin McCarthy from signaling to Putin that the GOP will oppose, delay, and minimize future aid packages to Ukraine. As Adam Kinzinger said, Kevin McCarthy is effectively giving “aid and comfort” to Putin by providing statements that the embattled Russian leader can use on state-controlled television to prop his ailing domestic support. See Business Insider, Adam Kinzinger said Kevin McCarthy was giving 'aid and comfort to the enemy' and fodder to Russian media by suggesting GOP may not send more aid to Ukraine.

          What is it with the GOP and Putin?

          There is more, but you get the point. MAGA-GOP will introduce bad-faith bills that will never become law because of Joe Biden’s veto power. Instead, they will wage a propaganda war as part of the 2024 presidential campaign—that is, if they win control of the House. We need to do everything we can to prevent that from happening.

Lindsey Graham must testify before Fulton County, Georgia grand jury.

          A federal appeals court ruled today that Lindsey Graham must testify before a grand jury in Fulton County, Georgia, that is investigating Trump’s election interference in 2020. See Politico, Federal court rules Georgia prosecutors can force Lindsey Graham to testify. Graham will likely appeal to the US Supreme Court, but here is Professor Laurence Tribe’s take on that possibility:

          US Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit Court rightly — and unanimously — rejects Lindsey Graham’s claim of immunity from having to testify before the Georgia grand jury. He should save himself the trouble of a futile trip to SCOTUS. He’d lose 9-0.

          The development is important because it brings Trump one step closer to indictment in Georgia. Anything that can be done to hold Trump accountable for his crimes will help restore the rule of law and help Democrats win in 2024.

Speaking of holding Trump accountable . . . .

          Yesterday, I wrote: “Trump will continue his campaign despite an indictment, and there is no prohibition against a convicted felon being elected to the presidency—even from inside a jail cell.” Martin London, an acclaimed and accomplished lawyer, sent an email, saying,

I respectfully disagree. The DOJ cited 18 US Code, Section 1519 in its search warrant application. The statute provides, in part: “Whoever having the custody of any such record . . . willfully and unlawfully conceals or destroys the same . . . shall . . . be imprisoned for not more than three years and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States . . . .”

Moreover, the Fourteenth Amendment, Section 3 provides that,

“No person . . . shall hold any office under the United States, who having previously taken an oath . . . as an officer of the United States . . . to support the constitution of the United States . . . shall have engaged in insurrection . . . .”

          Marty is right on both counts as to the provisions of Section 1519 and the Fourteenth Amendment. But as to Section 1519, there is a robust debate about whether Congress can add a statutory condition (or disqualification) to the express provisions set forth in the Constitution regarding eligibility for being elected as president (e.g., 35 years old, “natural born citizen,” and fourteen years as a resident of the US). I wrote about the debate over such statutory disqualifications previously, here.

          As to disqualification under the Fourteenth Amendment, a judge or jury would need to make a finding that Trump engaged in insurrection. Clearly, if Trump is convicted of insurrection, the condition of the Fourteenth Amendment would be satisfied. But if someone filed a civil case for a determination that Trump is disqualified from running for president because the January 6th assault on the Capitol was “an insurrection” and Trump “engaged” in the insurrection, the US Supreme Court would decide whether a civil judgment satisfies the language of the 14th Amendment.

Courts reject challenges to Biden student loan forgiveness.

          Republican advocacy groups and GOP-controlled states challenged Biden’s student loan forgiveness program in two federal lawsuits. On Thursday, Justice Amy Coney Barrett refused to grant an emergency stay of the loan forgiveness program and another federal judge dismissed a lawsuit challenging the program for lack of standing. See NYTimes, Courts Reject Challenges to Biden Plan on Student Debt.

As a practical matter, the development means that the federal government will begin discharging student loan debts next week. Republicans will continue their legal challenges to the loan forgiveness program—another reason why Americans should vote against GOP candidates in droves.

Reminder regarding Zoom fundraiser for Cheri Beasley for US Senator from North Carolina.  

          We have had a strong initial response to the fundraiser for Cheri Beasley jointly sponsored by this newsletter, Chop Wood, Carry Water, and Markers for Democracy. You can still sign up here by donating any amount to register: Zoom fundraiser for Cheri Beasley

          Readers can forward questions to me and Susan Tilson to ask Cheri during the Zoom. Please email questions to rbhubbell@gmail.com. Thanks for your support!!

Concluding Thoughts.

          The GOP is waging a propaganda war to demoralize Democratic volunteers in the final weeks of the campaign. Senator Rick Scott is telling anyone who will listen that the GOP is going to win 56 seats in the Senate. Although that is theoretically possible, Rick Scott is the same guy who, as CEO of Columbia/HCA, oversaw the largest Medicare fraud in U.S. history. In other words, Rick Scott’s relationship with the truth leaves a lot to be desired—and no one should believe a word he says. And yet, his predictions are repeated in breathless and unquestioning headlines in political media outlets. Don’t get sucked in.

          At this point, the media should be viewed as a giant spin machine that has kicked into warp drive. Ignore it and focus on getting more people to the polls. We can dissect and analyze the results at our leisure after the election is over, but until then, keep sweating the details. Some races may be decided by a handful of votes—by voters that you motivated to go to the polls. And even in races we don’t win, every voter that we convert to our cause is an ally in the next election. Our efforts are accretive over the long term. If we keep that fundamental truth in mind, no effort is wasted, and every new Democratic voter is a victory.

          I plan to write briefly over the weekend given the short time until the election, but my wife and I are planning a short “staycation” after several weeks of intense preparations for our daughter’s wedding. I will open the Comments section with a short Saturday newsletter.

          Stay strong! Talk to you tomorrow!