Robert, I agree with your political analysis. You have, however, not gotten the economics right.
Cutting federal spending is not “to pay for the trillions in tax cuts” for billionaires. Cutting federal spending is simply to HARM people. The debt & the deficit are merely excuses to do that.
Think about it. The national debt & annual deficits are merely accounting, bookkeeping & bear no relationship to the REAL (as distinct from the financial) economy. The real economy is people working, firms producing, infrastructure repairing, home building, food growing. Financial transactions facilitate those essential economic activities —- but they are not identical to those REAL economic activities (again real as distinct from financial not real as distinct from fake).
What people who care about actual human wellbeing (this is real in the economic sense) should be concerned with is how well are people doing? Do they have decent jobs at decent wages & decent conditions? Is the air clean? Is the water safe? Will driving across the bridge to work kill you bc it is likely to collapse?
What does the budget deficit or national debt have to do with any of that? Precisely nothing.
Now, if this was a gold standard world there would be a case to be made for balancing budgets bc gold holdings by the sovereign government would be a constraint on the creation of governmental capacity to create financial assets.
But we’re not in the 19th or 20th century anymore. The U.S. is in the enviable global position of being sovereign in our own currency (we have a global monopoly on the creation of dollars), we are the richest nation, and our dollars are the world’s reserve currency. That means every government, every major corporation, every bank and every billionaire holds dollar denominated assets. Chief among the dollar denominated assets are U.S. Treasury bills.
There have been at least a dozen times in just the last 15 years where the world has been willing to lend the U.S. trillions AT NEGATIVE (inflation adjusted) INTEREST RATES. Why? Bc US T bills are the safest asset in the world (unless the ItThing and his evil cabal wreck that).
Last time I looked the total offering of TBills was sold out within hours of issue. The world economy depends on US government debt. Without it governments corporations & banks would have no safe haven for idle balances, the cash on hand that has no immediate use.
Now to the mechanics of government debt. When the various issues of TBills come due, Treasury just issues new ones to pay off the ones that are due. No big deal. The U.S. government—with its sovereign ability to create dollars—is not like a household or a corporation.
Unlike persons the government can’t die —or go bankrupt (well hopefully … these wreckers at the helm might do that … but it won’t be bc of the debt/deficit). We can’t go bankrupt bc as long as Americans & the world want dollars, we have a monopoly & can supply dollars … into infinity. (Not saying that’s good, just that it’s possible).
The U.S. can no more run out of dollars than football can run out of touch-downs.
The key take-away: Accepted wisdom on balanced budgets & the deficit is wholly incorrect. Fears about the size of deficits & the national debt is a conceptual Trojan horse … always at hand to put the kabosh on spending that actually helps the real economy.
Notice how the debt! The deficit! Are never trotted out to fear monger about tax cuts for billionaires? That’s bc the federal government’s budget position is basically irrelevant. It doesn’t EVER have to be paid back. Just pay off old debt by issuing new debt.
And remember: every dollar of debt is matched exactly by a dollar of assets. Balancing the budget requires destroying assets…bc it reduces debt.
Worrying about budget deficits & the national debt is the way neoliberal economics knee-capped the Keynsianism that made the U.S. middle class the envy of the world.
Thank you, Susan, from someone who doesn't (or want to try to) understand the implications/nuances of government/global finances.
But I have long wondered why 'debt' and 'deficit' were such naughty words to R's (or anyone). Anytime I hear a slimeball like Little Mikey rail on about 'we have to lower the deficit!', I think to myself, WHO CARES?? Why is it MORE important to have 'lower debt' (or whatever) than to have conditions in which the American populace can survive/thrive??
Convincing teaching, I know no more than the average bear (as in Yogi the) about national economics, but I do know a bit about good teaching and this seems right on and explains a lot in very clear prose. Thank you very much. If others have a substantially different take, I'd appreciate hearing it.
Thank you Patrick for your kind words. This thinking is not original to me … it’s from Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), and the hands down best primer on the topic is Stephanie Kelton’s The Deficit Myth.
Thank you! All, how does (or even does it) related to crypto currency. I believe it's the case that anyone can "start" their own currency...I worry that Musk is doing this to eventually challenge the US dollar.
I worry about that too. BUT!!! Unless the US Government via the Treasury says “yes you can pay taxes in bit coin—of a specific brand I guess” there’s no way that challenge is effective.
Money exists to pay taxes. Government spending … getting money into circulation … is logically & historically PRIOR to taxation.
This explanation was fabulous for me, thank you! Now I am wondering what might happen if the republican leader succeeds in making himself (through his crypto co.)and America the crypto king and kingdom... there are bad actors everywhere involved in crypto, just read yesterday about UAE and crypto...
And liquidity is everything. Though I’m not an expert on these things, as I understand it, during the financial crisis of 2008 essentially a debt jubilee occurred because had it not, the entire global financial system would have imploded. Money needs to be continually injected into the system.
Susan Feiner gave a fine exposituion of economic Monetary Theory. Complementary to this is economic theory that derives from the work of John Maynard Keynes. The two work simultaneously, pretty much as two variables that affect the economy.
Keynesian theory deals with the balance between government deficit spending and private consumption. Negative government deficits (taking in more taxes than government spends) tend to tamp down economic activity; government deficits, which inject money into the economy, tend to stimulate economic growth. Thus government financial deficit spending can be inflationary *if* the economy is operating at full throttle but is not inflationary if the economy is operating at less than full capacity.
This simplified description is at the root of why conservative politicians chatter about federal deficits, even though conservatives tend to oversimplify matters by referring to the economics of individual households.
Cutting back Medicare is one thing. But allowing Dr. Oz to foist Medicare Advantage or worse on us all is a travesty. I hear very little pushback on Oz. Even my Senator Fetterman who ran against him in PA seems complacent on this.
United Healthcare is a major player in the Medicare Advantage ongoing scam... I am always appalled that AARP is always pushing UNC... anyway...I read a report that says UNC denies 32%+ of their requests for care, using AI algorithm... they are a joke...a very dangerous and deadly joke.
For Medicare Advantage that may be true, but oddly for my employer insurance since Jan 1, they have been my best. The problem with all MA plans though is that they can deny coverage like that. Medicare Supplemental plans do not work like that - every plan G is the same coverage under Medicare.
Fetterman is a very mixed bag. I wouldn't be surprised to find he is inching his way over the border into Trumpland, for reasons known (or unknown?) only to himself. His stability seems in question.
I know plenty of tall husky men who can “play the part “ and do. Fettermsn is just a slob and is the current Kristin Sinema/ Joe Manchin. We have seen his likes before. DINOs !
Exactly, Susan! I was very surprised to hear him equate Hunter Biden's persecution with Trump's New York case. I'm guessing you heard Fetterman say on The View yesterday that both cases were "politically motivated." It was slightly stunning to know that's what he believes.
OHG it sounds like Fetterman has caved and gone over to the dark side. That would be enough for me, and when I also hear he equated a criminal case against Trump with the pardon for Hunter then I feel he just drank the entire glass of cool aid.
I’ve been sitting back, reading this newsletter every day but not commenting much. On the scale of hibernation to activism, I’m probably closer to hibernation. But I just had to respond today. Robert’s encouragement to start every opening paragraph with push back, while accurate, leads me to ask “pushback by who?” We, the grassroots have pushed back, canvassed, phone banked, text bank ad nauseam. I am waiting to see some fight from the Democratic leadership. I see more implorations for bi-partisanship, civility, compromise (remember the “deal” Schumer made about lower level vs. higher level judges), speaking softly but without the big stick….etc. Why did Bob Casey call off the recount for his election? Where is the outrage over the voter suppression including the bomb threats at the polls? After the 2020 election the Trump camp brought 65 lawsuits of which they lost 64. What are we doing? We may not win everything but please God, show some fight. Don’t ask us to be alone on the frontlines again.
Yes, and I have not heard anything about anyone pursuing whoever is culpable for those threats. I heard they figured out that they came from Russian sources, but how? Why did the shut down take so long? Hours to clear a space that should already have been cleared before opening? So now next time all they have to do it call in a bomb threat at Every blue region poll and we'll shut for hours and fold when the Rs fight our petition to make up the time after reopening? No new rulings or laws that say how lost poll time is to be made up? Boy, our powers that be are just handing the hammer to them, aren't they? What magic happens to our elected officials so that they go in to office fighting bears and on the other side of the lintel they suddenly are teddies just wanting to cuddle and get along? How have they not realized the monsters under the bed eat teddies too?
The Dems don’t know how to fight. It’s sad. It’s the same problem they have with connecting to the public. Their academic, erudite style turns many off, and prevents them from the tactics you’d suggest, Biden could have acted in a number of ways as soon as SCOTUS ruled for broad presidential immunity. Did he? Of course not. To the country’s detriment. To democracy’s detriment. It’s time - way overdue - fr the Dems to wake up and reform their approach.
Here we go down another rabbit hole I’m afraid. It seems it would be much more helpful to begin to name what WE are going to do differently instead of endlessly rehashing what we think THEY (meaning people on our own side) did wrong. My local Indivisible group is training to highlight MAGA corruption and harm to ordinary Americans by any means necessary. Care to join in?
I so agree with you. Today I was also wondering why Democratic leaders (so called) aren’t issuing daily statements screaming about the shameful parade of nominees being proposed, tying it to either Trump’s profound ignorance of the kind of people needed for highly critical positions or his suspicious behavior with Vladimir Putin, or both. Regardless of the circumstances, there is little doubt that these are the only types he can attract. That is a big ptoblem.
I think the DNC leaders are part of the problem. They fear the progressives but know we are not going anywhere for now. And don’t get me started on arguments about not knowing how to talk to working people. Any advancement that happened for them came from Democrats, that is provable fact. So maybe a push for new leadership in the upper echelons of the party is called for and frequent reminders about how to fix this mess by careful vetting of candidates before giving them your vote.
I was very disappointed as well as astonished by Robert’s reaction to the HB pardon. It seemed to ignore the particular circumstances that preceded it in favor of allowing the incoming administration to carry out vindictive acts without pushback because we might become like them. As if.
The Republicans are not acting any differently than they have in the past and have actually amplified their messages and rhetoric. Unless the Democrats do something drastically different than they have in the past we will have the same result. I would like to see a strategy developed where the Democrats stopped being the “ nice guy following the rules “ to being creative and aggressive and attacking the Republicans and striking some fear in what they do with consequences. Today the Republicans do not fear the Democrats and in fact do not consider them a threat and we need to change that.
An excellent first step would be the blanket pardon Biden is said to be "considering". A second would be making the necessary declaration to get the ERA published, and a third would be lifting the Trump tariffs for at least the balance of his term. Inaction right now is a gift to the Trumpistas and costs us all dearly.
Stephen, Simon Rosenberg began making clear in early Dec 2023 that the Dems had to begin framing the narrative and exposing Trump for what he is. He was noting this week in Wed update to subscribers.
In elections beginning in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023, they were able to effectively communicate/message. Per what Rosenberg, instead they began differently (I can't recall the exact words, but let's say civil).
During the Harris Walz campaign, they slammed Trump. Whether it was too little too late, I am not sure.
It’s not just communication, it’s ACTION. Dems need to use their power, not try to govern with GOP. Example, they should NOT bail out GOP in the budget vote unless Dems extract concessions to change the balance of power. See what the GOP is doing in NC.
Right wing disinformation monopolizes the ecosystem. The people who voted for the felon never heard, or never believed, anything that the Harris campaign said. Even if she had gone on the Joe Rogan podcast, I think she would have been ambushed. The propaganda machine has infiltrated society so thoroughly that the lies and hatred are thick out there.
Joe I read what Simon said but where I have a problem is around all of those consultants and experts why have they not acted on this before or acknowledged it?
Fair enough. Although I don't believe Simon would disagree with you. I have heard bits about the issues re consultant/s, but nothing publicly. And on your points I only second your perspective.
Clearly, when in a democratic nation the party with fewer registered voters has no worry about the party with more voters, there is a failure in enabling and incentivizing the vote and/or a problem with compiling the vote (not referring to an election steal but to how local votes compile into districts, compile into states, compile into federal elections etc.). We know there are laws and systems that make it harder for some groups to vote, there have been registered voter purges, we know there is gerrymandering, and we know some of the systems such as the outdated electoral college that inserts an undemocratic gear into the wheels of our democracy. We can't address any of that if we don't have better local control, and even if we were able to perfect the system and it's administration at all levels, as we saw with the Hispanic vote this last election, if we can't get the message out to the people it's all in vain. Even the most effective message whispered in a closet can't change a thing. My own choice for weak link that would effect the greatest change is the media. We're seeing them crumble around us, with ring kissing articles wrapped in a tissue paper of pretended fair mindedness. We need to be as loud and proud and aggressive as we can on every media open to us, and we need to be willing to be flashy and attention grabbing too. Over half the population of the US surely can grow some very strong alternatives to the legacy media, and make enough noise to vie with Trump's lies and noise.
Robert… you finally came close to a critique yesterday. It is hard to help a party - the Dems - that has a hard time helping itself. We need leadership the likes of which the Dems are probably not capable of providing.
I think there are some fine potential leaders of the Dem party..AOC, Maxwell Frost, Eric Swallwell, Katie Porter, Mallory McMorrow, to name a few. But if you are talking about the DNC, yes, it’s past time for a shake up.
1) For the 4ish R congressional seats which will be temporarily vacated until spring special elections…are any districts a Dem could flip? Any work being done?
2) I’m going to increase my letter to the editor writing and will share on here via a Google doc when it’s regarding a national issue. I am also going to send my letters to multiple Texas papers beyond my local DALLAS MORNING NEWS. For any Texans in this group who are also letter writers, here’s a list of newspapers. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1F1IZYgfw096r7IEegVzaiUMSKlIl0PPZ6vj88Go4Mrc/edit
Fl special election primary is January 28th and general is April 1st.
District 6 race is to replace U.S. Rep Waltz, nominated for National Security Advisor. Trump has endorsed Fl Sen Randy Fine (recently elected Sen after being term-limited as Rep),a multi-millionaire and all-around nasty human being. The other MAGAs in the race are obeying in advance and dropping like flies.This is a very red district.
District 1 is Gaetz’ former seat.Trump endorsed our CFO,Patronis, who is most likely jumping ship from our property insurance crisis to a much easier job. Also a very red district.
Candidate qualifying period starts today (12/6)so likely will learn more about any other candidates in coming weeks.
There is no such thing as 100% safe any district. Let the Rs spend money to win every seat in every "safe" district. In NC, in CA we flipped red seats in this election. We have to try in Florida, Texas, Alabama and wherever and everywhere.
This is all very helpful. Thank you. I know that Dems have done better in special elections…had hoped there might be some opportunities in closer districts.
It almost goes without saying that for a representative to meet the apparent high standard of low morality, ethics and super loyalty to Trump to be nominated, they have to come from a very red region to have been the congressional choice.
Russian psyops won the "election" for Trump. That should be our first priority.
National security. Putin et al are working 24/7 to make our currency worthless. They accused us of doing it to the Soviet Union. Probably was true in Cuba, other psy op targets.
BRIC has incorporated some of our important "allies" like the Saudis, who have been undermining our economy since 1973, at the same time coincidentally, Nixosan let the dollar float.
I also think our current "inflation" was self induced. A product of politics to hurt Dems. A product of greed. It started when Trump, as president, with OPEC limited production to raise energy prices.
Yesterday Bitcoin, a ficticious currency, a figment of somebody's imagination, crossed the $100,000 per coin threeshhold. Shades of the Dutch tulib bulb panic. In 2008 one (1) coin cost $.05. Who knew? Imagine if the SSA trust fund were held in 2008 Bitcoin!
No, on all of these issues, the Dem inability to see reality, to vocalize effectively the situation, and to act effectively, those are the problems. This is the 50+ year history of the Democratic Party. Yes, the Republican Party is malignant, and allowed to evolve to that ad the Dems did little for 50 years. They don’t message effectively, control the public dialogue, mold public opinion, connect with voters, connect with the working class, connect with rural voters, etc… they don’t even know how to give themselves credit - don’t know how to get the public to give them credit - for they’re legislative accomplishments. Let’s be clear, terrible Dem leadership is a key part of the problem.
Respectfully disagree. it’s not the media. Biden did NOTHING to sell his accomplishments. Schumer and Durbin are a couple of wet blankets who are just now putting in the real work.
The biggest thing: after the insurrection Dems WENT HOME for the weekend then a week later started impeachment. Look at what is happening in So. Korea. That is what using power looks like.
Dems say Trump is a threat but don’t act like it. This is way more than communication.
One point that I disagree with here is your statement that Biden did nothing to sell his accomplishments. From what Heather Cox Richardson said in a politics chat (when someone asked why people didn’t know about all the good things Biden did) she said he DID talk to reporters about these things but they didn’t report on them, certainly not like they report on all the negative click-bait stuff. The media is a HUGE problem. At the same time. I agree that someone should have been appointed to travel and speak to reporters non-stop at every location where Biden’s good programs were being implemented. Said person should have been loud and commanded attention, EVERY DAY.
Media is not marketing. I’m talking about taking out paid advertising about his accomplishments, signing the stimulus checks with Democrats (because zero Rs voted for it, work with influencers early on to talk about the amazing climate bill.
It was a major failure of imagination. This is not the medias job or fault. We need to take responsibility for the failures or we will never learn.
Democrats need to re-evaluate their spokespeople. Senator Schumer unfailingly drones on. Hakeem Jeffries comes across as flat. They need to find *and employ* people who are engaging, rivetin speakers, if possible – speakers who can use humor to undermine the Republicans.
Yes and no. Your ideas are great and show the type of flair we should have been showing, and when the media ignored Biden's accomplishments Dems should have done this. I'd sure vote for or promote assigning you to a top job in the DNC PR office if you are ready to advise them. The no is that I do believe it Is the job of the media to inform the public, and to do so with as much fairness as humanly possible given prejudices, and that it is a fault when they show as much bias as they did and do. It's not the job of entertainment "news" to do so. They just entertain.
We know this to be true if we think about it. Every time we heard one thing about what Biden was accomplishing we know it was offered. If it hadn't been we wouldn't have heard the first thing about it. We also know we didn't hear enough about it - and no one on Fox news would have heard that first thing - and that we heard about Trump's latest rally or insult etc until we were sick to death of him (unless we were eating it up). It was out there. I wasn't given fair air time.
I think it's message and bull horn, but agree that I have almost always been disappointed in the level of fight shown. For one thing, doing a great job for a display of contrast is only good if the display is showy. For another, you not only have to build a strong structure, you have to call in the pest control to eliminate the already ubiquitous termites.
(Yes, I re-subscribed to the Times. I love the games, and they offered a six month full subscription for just $1 a week. We will see where they are in June, and whether I continue or drop it for the summer when I am often too busy to do any games.)
Well, then keep sharing articles so others don't have to subscribe and you'll still be instrumental in suppressing their reading of their approval rating.
I'd like to know what the heck they are saying to justify an article saying jobs levels are starting to go up again - as if jobs has been depressed. Are they using a foreshortened range? Odd sourcing? I'm not suggesting a gifted article, just asking what your take on that one is.
I don't get them but they persist in sending headlines to my inbox... I see them but know to expect rebuff if I click ("no, you told us to go jump in a lake so we just want to fanny wave at you to remind you there's still 10% of our articles you might want to see if you ever ran short of other things to read") while mostly what I see that looks interesting is of that ilk - just wondering how the heck they get off saying thus and so!
And there is Anderson Clayton in NC. This young lady is incredible and the Minnesota DNC dude whose name I am forgetting is very good as well. We are very good at blaming like what we are doing here but we need to see the positive results of a lot of on ground efforts as well
I'm beginning to see Elon Musk as a billionaire, brilliant in his business dealings, but a blowhard and incompetent in dealing with our big unwieldy government. I suspect he has a short attention span and has enjoyed spending his millions to help get Trump elected, but will tire of his role in DOGE.
Musk is not brilliant in his business dealings. He was born with money and bought the right companies - ones he did not start. In Tesla's case, he forced out the 2 who invented it. Much of his "business" is government contracts for SpaceX - not selling something on the market, or changing it like Steve Jobs or any other true innovators. His management of twitter was not to improve its business, but to create a nazi-friendly platform. People need to stop calling him brilliant - he's just rich and ruthless.
The clip of Musk striding the halls of the Capitol, with his toddler son on his shoulders and a big grin on his face, in a triumphal procession followed by newspeople, fawining legislators, and Lord know who sent chills up my spine. I could almost hear him whisper, "Take a good look, Sonny Boy, this will all soon be yours." In Musk, we have found a man who is fundamentally as shallow as Trump, but he is even more dangerous because he is more capable and practiced at the use of surgical power behind the scenes.
He needs more money for what? Is his ultimate goal to just buy his way to being the most powerful man in the world? Once the position of POTUS is downgraded, who will stop him from becoming just that?
Barbara, if you think Musk is a brilliant businessman, you must think Trump is a brilliant businessman, too. After all, that's what the media says, right?
Musk is a thief of other people's ideas and billions in government subsidies. He's a brilliant thief and con artist, I'll give you that.
Here's an idea. Since The Pentagon failed its seventh audit in a row, give Musk and the other guy an office deep in the Pentagon layers I am sure there is some waste somewhere in that $824 BILLION budget.
Robert says: "Despite the bravado and tough talk of Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Speaker-In-Name-Only Mike Johnson, it is highly unlikely that Republicans will succeed in cutting Social Security, Medicare, Veterans healthcare, and a variety of other safety net programs and federal agencies."
I take a different view. Citizens United has opened the doors for Musk to buy any one or group of politicians or judges he needs to make votes go his way. He got Trump for about $150 mio. How hard cans Johnson be?
I am extremely troubled by Ro Kanna and Moskowitz praise of DOGE. We have see this too many times, Democrats thinking they can work with extremist. If they are your Rep, please call them out. I wrote this in yesterday’s comment but will again today:
Dems should NOT bail out GOP, starting with the budget vote. No "Yes" budget votes unless Dems extract concessions to change the balance of power. See what the GOP is doing in NC. Democrats have power, they need to use it!.
And they (in the 119th congress) need to oppose the unacceptable nominations, too. They need to oppose all of the ones that are bad news for this country and not fall into a trap of viewing them in a context of even more horrifying ones that came before. A smaller monster that only eats children isn't okay because it's slightly less horrifying than a larger one that eats children and babies. Trump needs to realize he can't just threaten to strafe and land mine the border before he mines it so our D representatives and slightly saner R ones way "whew" and sit back.
From Heather Cox Richardson this morning, “In addition to the $20.5 million to the RBG PAC, (Musk) put $238 million into the America PAC. Musk also supported Trump through free advertising and commentary on his social media platform X.” So 1/4 of a billion to buy an election. Pretty cheap for a guy worth $337.3BILLION; less than one percent of his net worth. Pretty painless investment to become the power behind Trump’s gold-plated throne.
Robert, I agree with your political analysis. You have, however, not gotten the economics right.
Cutting federal spending is not “to pay for the trillions in tax cuts” for billionaires. Cutting federal spending is simply to HARM people. The debt & the deficit are merely excuses to do that.
Think about it. The national debt & annual deficits are merely accounting, bookkeeping & bear no relationship to the REAL (as distinct from the financial) economy. The real economy is people working, firms producing, infrastructure repairing, home building, food growing. Financial transactions facilitate those essential economic activities —- but they are not identical to those REAL economic activities (again real as distinct from financial not real as distinct from fake).
What people who care about actual human wellbeing (this is real in the economic sense) should be concerned with is how well are people doing? Do they have decent jobs at decent wages & decent conditions? Is the air clean? Is the water safe? Will driving across the bridge to work kill you bc it is likely to collapse?
What does the budget deficit or national debt have to do with any of that? Precisely nothing.
Now, if this was a gold standard world there would be a case to be made for balancing budgets bc gold holdings by the sovereign government would be a constraint on the creation of governmental capacity to create financial assets.
But we’re not in the 19th or 20th century anymore. The U.S. is in the enviable global position of being sovereign in our own currency (we have a global monopoly on the creation of dollars), we are the richest nation, and our dollars are the world’s reserve currency. That means every government, every major corporation, every bank and every billionaire holds dollar denominated assets. Chief among the dollar denominated assets are U.S. Treasury bills.
There have been at least a dozen times in just the last 15 years where the world has been willing to lend the U.S. trillions AT NEGATIVE (inflation adjusted) INTEREST RATES. Why? Bc US T bills are the safest asset in the world (unless the ItThing and his evil cabal wreck that).
Last time I looked the total offering of TBills was sold out within hours of issue. The world economy depends on US government debt. Without it governments corporations & banks would have no safe haven for idle balances, the cash on hand that has no immediate use.
Now to the mechanics of government debt. When the various issues of TBills come due, Treasury just issues new ones to pay off the ones that are due. No big deal. The U.S. government—with its sovereign ability to create dollars—is not like a household or a corporation.
Unlike persons the government can’t die —or go bankrupt (well hopefully … these wreckers at the helm might do that … but it won’t be bc of the debt/deficit). We can’t go bankrupt bc as long as Americans & the world want dollars, we have a monopoly & can supply dollars … into infinity. (Not saying that’s good, just that it’s possible).
The U.S. can no more run out of dollars than football can run out of touch-downs.
The key take-away: Accepted wisdom on balanced budgets & the deficit is wholly incorrect. Fears about the size of deficits & the national debt is a conceptual Trojan horse … always at hand to put the kabosh on spending that actually helps the real economy.
Notice how the debt! The deficit! Are never trotted out to fear monger about tax cuts for billionaires? That’s bc the federal government’s budget position is basically irrelevant. It doesn’t EVER have to be paid back. Just pay off old debt by issuing new debt.
And remember: every dollar of debt is matched exactly by a dollar of assets. Balancing the budget requires destroying assets…bc it reduces debt.
Worrying about budget deficits & the national debt is the way neoliberal economics knee-capped the Keynsianism that made the U.S. middle class the envy of the world.
Susan
Thank you, Susan, from someone who doesn't (or want to try to) understand the implications/nuances of government/global finances.
But I have long wondered why 'debt' and 'deficit' were such naughty words to R's (or anyone). Anytime I hear a slimeball like Little Mikey rail on about 'we have to lower the deficit!', I think to myself, WHO CARES?? Why is it MORE important to have 'lower debt' (or whatever) than to have conditions in which the American populace can survive/thrive??
Exactly! It’s autocracy by bean counters!
Convincing teaching, I know no more than the average bear (as in Yogi the) about national economics, but I do know a bit about good teaching and this seems right on and explains a lot in very clear prose. Thank you very much. If others have a substantially different take, I'd appreciate hearing it.
Thank you Patrick for your kind words. This thinking is not original to me … it’s from Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), and the hands down best primer on the topic is Stephanie Kelton’s The Deficit Myth.
But like all good teachers, you know how to explain a variety of sources, but thanks for the reference to Stephanie Kelton's book.
Thank you! All, how does (or even does it) related to crypto currency. I believe it's the case that anyone can "start" their own currency...I worry that Musk is doing this to eventually challenge the US dollar.
I worry about that too. BUT!!! Unless the US Government via the Treasury says “yes you can pay taxes in bit coin—of a specific brand I guess” there’s no way that challenge is effective.
Money exists to pay taxes. Government spending … getting money into circulation … is logically & historically PRIOR to taxation.
You're a smart cookie, Susan! Thanks for a great explanation.
Thank you Paula!
This explanation was fabulous for me, thank you! Now I am wondering what might happen if the republican leader succeeds in making himself (through his crypto co.)and America the crypto king and kingdom... there are bad actors everywhere involved in crypto, just read yesterday about UAE and crypto...
Thank you for this excellent lesson.
And liquidity is everything. Though I’m not an expert on these things, as I understand it, during the financial crisis of 2008 essentially a debt jubilee occurred because had it not, the entire global financial system would have imploded. Money needs to be continually injected into the system.
Susan Feiner gave a fine exposituion of economic Monetary Theory. Complementary to this is economic theory that derives from the work of John Maynard Keynes. The two work simultaneously, pretty much as two variables that affect the economy.
Keynesian theory deals with the balance between government deficit spending and private consumption. Negative government deficits (taking in more taxes than government spends) tend to tamp down economic activity; government deficits, which inject money into the economy, tend to stimulate economic growth. Thus government financial deficit spending can be inflationary *if* the economy is operating at full throttle but is not inflationary if the economy is operating at less than full capacity.
This simplified description is at the root of why conservative politicians chatter about federal deficits, even though conservatives tend to oversimplify matters by referring to the economics of individual households.
Cutting back Medicare is one thing. But allowing Dr. Oz to foist Medicare Advantage or worse on us all is a travesty. I hear very little pushback on Oz. Even my Senator Fetterman who ran against him in PA seems complacent on this.
Medicare Advantage is the pits. We have to fight back.
United Healthcare is a major player in the Medicare Advantage ongoing scam... I am always appalled that AARP is always pushing UNC... anyway...I read a report that says UNC denies 32%+ of their requests for care, using AI algorithm... they are a joke...a very dangerous and deadly joke.
For Medicare Advantage that may be true, but oddly for my employer insurance since Jan 1, they have been my best. The problem with all MA plans though is that they can deny coverage like that. Medicare Supplemental plans do not work like that - every plan G is the same coverage under Medicare.
Let’s get on the phone and let Fetterman and others know we need them to oppose Oz!!
Fetterman doesn't come across as the brightest bulb in the lamp.
Just because he doesn't dress the part does not mean he is not bright.
Fetterman is a very mixed bag. I wouldn't be surprised to find he is inching his way over the border into Trumpland, for reasons known (or unknown?) only to himself. His stability seems in question.
I know plenty of tall husky men who can “play the part “ and do. Fettermsn is just a slob and is the current Kristin Sinema/ Joe Manchin. We have seen his likes before. DINOs !
I heard Fetterman on The View last week and was puzzled by his presentation.
He has been good, but he now thinks Trump should be pardoned in the NY case. Heard him say it or I never would have believed.
Exactly, Susan! I was very surprised to hear him equate Hunter Biden's persecution with Trump's New York case. I'm guessing you heard Fetterman say on The View yesterday that both cases were "politically motivated." It was slightly stunning to know that's what he believes.
Yes I heard it later recorded. And he made comments about Dr. Oz as well. Go figure the guy he ridiculed in the Senate run is now ok.
OHG it sounds like Fetterman has caved and gone over to the dark side. That would be enough for me, and when I also hear he equated a criminal case against Trump with the pardon for Hunter then I feel he just drank the entire glass of cool aid.
It shocked me - I voted for him.
A next step for 2025 is to elect Abigail Spanberger as the Governor of Virginia.
Since you mentioned VA, it is actually next month for the next state level special elections. This was published this morning:
https://virginiamercury.com/2024/12/06/national-democratic-group-boosts-srinivassan-singh-in-upcoming-virginia-special-elections/
Yes, yes, yes. Thank you Bernard!
Yes!!!!
I’ve been sitting back, reading this newsletter every day but not commenting much. On the scale of hibernation to activism, I’m probably closer to hibernation. But I just had to respond today. Robert’s encouragement to start every opening paragraph with push back, while accurate, leads me to ask “pushback by who?” We, the grassroots have pushed back, canvassed, phone banked, text bank ad nauseam. I am waiting to see some fight from the Democratic leadership. I see more implorations for bi-partisanship, civility, compromise (remember the “deal” Schumer made about lower level vs. higher level judges), speaking softly but without the big stick….etc. Why did Bob Casey call off the recount for his election? Where is the outrage over the voter suppression including the bomb threats at the polls? After the 2020 election the Trump camp brought 65 lawsuits of which they lost 64. What are we doing? We may not win everything but please God, show some fight. Don’t ask us to be alone on the frontlines again.
AMEN!!
Yes, and I have not heard anything about anyone pursuing whoever is culpable for those threats. I heard they figured out that they came from Russian sources, but how? Why did the shut down take so long? Hours to clear a space that should already have been cleared before opening? So now next time all they have to do it call in a bomb threat at Every blue region poll and we'll shut for hours and fold when the Rs fight our petition to make up the time after reopening? No new rulings or laws that say how lost poll time is to be made up? Boy, our powers that be are just handing the hammer to them, aren't they? What magic happens to our elected officials so that they go in to office fighting bears and on the other side of the lintel they suddenly are teddies just wanting to cuddle and get along? How have they not realized the monsters under the bed eat teddies too?
The Dems don’t know how to fight. It’s sad. It’s the same problem they have with connecting to the public. Their academic, erudite style turns many off, and prevents them from the tactics you’d suggest, Biden could have acted in a number of ways as soon as SCOTUS ruled for broad presidential immunity. Did he? Of course not. To the country’s detriment. To democracy’s detriment. It’s time - way overdue - fr the Dems to wake up and reform their approach.
Here we go down another rabbit hole I’m afraid. It seems it would be much more helpful to begin to name what WE are going to do differently instead of endlessly rehashing what we think THEY (meaning people on our own side) did wrong. My local Indivisible group is training to highlight MAGA corruption and harm to ordinary Americans by any means necessary. Care to join in?
I so agree with you. Today I was also wondering why Democratic leaders (so called) aren’t issuing daily statements screaming about the shameful parade of nominees being proposed, tying it to either Trump’s profound ignorance of the kind of people needed for highly critical positions or his suspicious behavior with Vladimir Putin, or both. Regardless of the circumstances, there is little doubt that these are the only types he can attract. That is a big ptoblem.
I think the DNC leaders are part of the problem. They fear the progressives but know we are not going anywhere for now. And don’t get me started on arguments about not knowing how to talk to working people. Any advancement that happened for them came from Democrats, that is provable fact. So maybe a push for new leadership in the upper echelons of the party is called for and frequent reminders about how to fix this mess by careful vetting of candidates before giving them your vote.
I was very disappointed as well as astonished by Robert’s reaction to the HB pardon. It seemed to ignore the particular circumstances that preceded it in favor of allowing the incoming administration to carry out vindictive acts without pushback because we might become like them. As if.
The Republicans are not acting any differently than they have in the past and have actually amplified their messages and rhetoric. Unless the Democrats do something drastically different than they have in the past we will have the same result. I would like to see a strategy developed where the Democrats stopped being the “ nice guy following the rules “ to being creative and aggressive and attacking the Republicans and striking some fear in what they do with consequences. Today the Republicans do not fear the Democrats and in fact do not consider them a threat and we need to change that.
An excellent first step would be the blanket pardon Biden is said to be "considering". A second would be making the necessary declaration to get the ERA published, and a third would be lifting the Trump tariffs for at least the balance of his term. Inaction right now is a gift to the Trumpistas and costs us all dearly.
Stephen, Simon Rosenberg began making clear in early Dec 2023 that the Dems had to begin framing the narrative and exposing Trump for what he is. He was noting this week in Wed update to subscribers.
In elections beginning in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023, they were able to effectively communicate/message. Per what Rosenberg, instead they began differently (I can't recall the exact words, but let's say civil).
During the Harris Walz campaign, they slammed Trump. Whether it was too little too late, I am not sure.
It’s not just communication, it’s ACTION. Dems need to use their power, not try to govern with GOP. Example, they should NOT bail out GOP in the budget vote unless Dems extract concessions to change the balance of power. See what the GOP is doing in NC.
Amen
Right wing disinformation monopolizes the ecosystem. The people who voted for the felon never heard, or never believed, anything that the Harris campaign said. Even if she had gone on the Joe Rogan podcast, I think she would have been ambushed. The propaganda machine has infiltrated society so thoroughly that the lies and hatred are thick out there.
Joe I read what Simon said but where I have a problem is around all of those consultants and experts why have they not acted on this before or acknowledged it?
Fair enough. Although I don't believe Simon would disagree with you. I have heard bits about the issues re consultant/s, but nothing publicly. And on your points I only second your perspective.
Now if only we could get the D’s to listen
Clearly, when in a democratic nation the party with fewer registered voters has no worry about the party with more voters, there is a failure in enabling and incentivizing the vote and/or a problem with compiling the vote (not referring to an election steal but to how local votes compile into districts, compile into states, compile into federal elections etc.). We know there are laws and systems that make it harder for some groups to vote, there have been registered voter purges, we know there is gerrymandering, and we know some of the systems such as the outdated electoral college that inserts an undemocratic gear into the wheels of our democracy. We can't address any of that if we don't have better local control, and even if we were able to perfect the system and it's administration at all levels, as we saw with the Hispanic vote this last election, if we can't get the message out to the people it's all in vain. Even the most effective message whispered in a closet can't change a thing. My own choice for weak link that would effect the greatest change is the media. We're seeing them crumble around us, with ring kissing articles wrapped in a tissue paper of pretended fair mindedness. We need to be as loud and proud and aggressive as we can on every media open to us, and we need to be willing to be flashy and attention grabbing too. Over half the population of the US surely can grow some very strong alternatives to the legacy media, and make enough noise to vie with Trump's lies and noise.
How does Trump payback Musk for his donations? Track the nominees that can make Musk richer!
https://thedemlabs.org/2024/12/05/trump-payback-musk-for-donations-with-nominees-to-make-him-richer/
Robert… you finally came close to a critique yesterday. It is hard to help a party - the Dems - that has a hard time helping itself. We need leadership the likes of which the Dems are probably not capable of providing.
So disappointed Dem senate choose to keep the same leadership. At least the House is mixing it up.
I think there are some fine potential leaders of the Dem party..AOC, Maxwell Frost, Eric Swallwell, Katie Porter, Mallory McMorrow, to name a few. But if you are talking about the DNC, yes, it’s past time for a shake up.
I agree Charles.
Talk to you tomorrow!
Onward and upward we go, exactly where we actually know!
The 2026 Midterms!
A good bedtime newsletter. Thank you Robert for encouraging information and thoughts. 🙏🏻
Two comments:
1) For the 4ish R congressional seats which will be temporarily vacated until spring special elections…are any districts a Dem could flip? Any work being done?
2) I’m going to increase my letter to the editor writing and will share on here via a Google doc when it’s regarding a national issue. I am also going to send my letters to multiple Texas papers beyond my local DALLAS MORNING NEWS. For any Texans in this group who are also letter writers, here’s a list of newspapers. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1F1IZYgfw096r7IEegVzaiUMSKlIl0PPZ6vj88Go4Mrc/edit
Fl special election primary is January 28th and general is April 1st.
District 6 race is to replace U.S. Rep Waltz, nominated for National Security Advisor. Trump has endorsed Fl Sen Randy Fine (recently elected Sen after being term-limited as Rep),a multi-millionaire and all-around nasty human being. The other MAGAs in the race are obeying in advance and dropping like flies.This is a very red district.
District 1 is Gaetz’ former seat.Trump endorsed our CFO,Patronis, who is most likely jumping ship from our property insurance crisis to a much easier job. Also a very red district.
Candidate qualifying period starts today (12/6)so likely will learn more about any other candidates in coming weeks.
There is no such thing as 100% safe any district. Let the Rs spend money to win every seat in every "safe" district. In NC, in CA we flipped red seats in this election. We have to try in Florida, Texas, Alabama and wherever and everywhere.
Anything is possible but FL is extremely hard. NY is possible if Billy Jones runs. Very hard, but possible.
Not sure of the fourth seat. Where is that?
This is all very helpful. Thank you. I know that Dems have done better in special elections…had hoped there might be some opportunities in closer districts.
I have read that the open House seats are in safely Republican districts unfortunately.
It almost goes without saying that for a representative to meet the apparent high standard of low morality, ethics and super loyalty to Trump to be nominated, they have to come from a very red region to have been the congressional choice.
Russian psyops won the "election" for Trump. That should be our first priority.
National security. Putin et al are working 24/7 to make our currency worthless. They accused us of doing it to the Soviet Union. Probably was true in Cuba, other psy op targets.
BRIC has incorporated some of our important "allies" like the Saudis, who have been undermining our economy since 1973, at the same time coincidentally, Nixosan let the dollar float.
I also think our current "inflation" was self induced. A product of politics to hurt Dems. A product of greed. It started when Trump, as president, with OPEC limited production to raise energy prices.
Yesterday Bitcoin, a ficticious currency, a figment of somebody's imagination, crossed the $100,000 per coin threeshhold. Shades of the Dutch tulib bulb panic. In 2008 one (1) coin cost $.05. Who knew? Imagine if the SSA trust fund were held in 2008 Bitcoin!
No, on all of these issues, the Dem inability to see reality, to vocalize effectively the situation, and to act effectively, those are the problems. This is the 50+ year history of the Democratic Party. Yes, the Republican Party is malignant, and allowed to evolve to that ad the Dems did little for 50 years. They don’t message effectively, control the public dialogue, mold public opinion, connect with voters, connect with the working class, connect with rural voters, etc… they don’t even know how to give themselves credit - don’t know how to get the public to give them credit - for they’re legislative accomplishments. Let’s be clear, terrible Dem leadership is a key part of the problem.
A big part of the problem is our current media environment, which is always tough on Democrats and easy on Republicans.
Respectfully disagree. it’s not the media. Biden did NOTHING to sell his accomplishments. Schumer and Durbin are a couple of wet blankets who are just now putting in the real work.
The biggest thing: after the insurrection Dems WENT HOME for the weekend then a week later started impeachment. Look at what is happening in So. Korea. That is what using power looks like.
Dems say Trump is a threat but don’t act like it. This is way more than communication.
One point that I disagree with here is your statement that Biden did nothing to sell his accomplishments. From what Heather Cox Richardson said in a politics chat (when someone asked why people didn’t know about all the good things Biden did) she said he DID talk to reporters about these things but they didn’t report on them, certainly not like they report on all the negative click-bait stuff. The media is a HUGE problem. At the same time. I agree that someone should have been appointed to travel and speak to reporters non-stop at every location where Biden’s good programs were being implemented. Said person should have been loud and commanded attention, EVERY DAY.
Media is not marketing. I’m talking about taking out paid advertising about his accomplishments, signing the stimulus checks with Democrats (because zero Rs voted for it, work with influencers early on to talk about the amazing climate bill.
It was a major failure of imagination. This is not the medias job or fault. We need to take responsibility for the failures or we will never learn.
Democrats need to re-evaluate their spokespeople. Senator Schumer unfailingly drones on. Hakeem Jeffries comes across as flat. They need to find *and employ* people who are engaging, rivetin speakers, if possible – speakers who can use humor to undermine the Republicans.
Yes and no. Your ideas are great and show the type of flair we should have been showing, and when the media ignored Biden's accomplishments Dems should have done this. I'd sure vote for or promote assigning you to a top job in the DNC PR office if you are ready to advise them. The no is that I do believe it Is the job of the media to inform the public, and to do so with as much fairness as humanly possible given prejudices, and that it is a fault when they show as much bias as they did and do. It's not the job of entertainment "news" to do so. They just entertain.
We know this to be true if we think about it. Every time we heard one thing about what Biden was accomplishing we know it was offered. If it hadn't been we wouldn't have heard the first thing about it. We also know we didn't hear enough about it - and no one on Fox news would have heard that first thing - and that we heard about Trump's latest rally or insult etc until we were sick to death of him (unless we were eating it up). It was out there. I wasn't given fair air time.
I think it's message and bull horn, but agree that I have almost always been disappointed in the level of fight shown. For one thing, doing a great job for a display of contrast is only good if the display is showy. For another, you not only have to build a strong structure, you have to call in the pest control to eliminate the already ubiquitous termites.
Here is a gifted NYT's article on Ben Wikler, head of the Democratic Party in Wisconsin, whose leadership was key to flipping our supreme court from conservative to liberal. We will be sorry to lose him, but we are wondering if his talents are needed at the national level. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/02/opinion/ben-wikler-dnc-chair.html?unlocked_article_code=1.e04.lnW_.lweKvsfSAwZt&smid=url-share
(Yes, I re-subscribed to the Times. I love the games, and they offered a six month full subscription for just $1 a week. We will see where they are in June, and whether I continue or drop it for the summer when I am often too busy to do any games.)
Well, then keep sharing articles so others don't have to subscribe and you'll still be instrumental in suppressing their reading of their approval rating.
I'd like to know what the heck they are saying to justify an article saying jobs levels are starting to go up again - as if jobs has been depressed. Are they using a foreshortened range? Odd sourcing? I'm not suggesting a gifted article, just asking what your take on that one is.
I don't get them but they persist in sending headlines to my inbox... I see them but know to expect rebuff if I click ("no, you told us to go jump in a lake so we just want to fanny wave at you to remind you there's still 10% of our articles you might want to see if you ever ran short of other things to read") while mostly what I see that looks interesting is of that ilk - just wondering how the heck they get off saying thus and so!
And there is Anderson Clayton in NC. This young lady is incredible and the Minnesota DNC dude whose name I am forgetting is very good as well. We are very good at blaming like what we are doing here but we need to see the positive results of a lot of on ground efforts as well
They did not go for win for the public on many occasions.
I'm beginning to see Elon Musk as a billionaire, brilliant in his business dealings, but a blowhard and incompetent in dealing with our big unwieldy government. I suspect he has a short attention span and has enjoyed spending his millions to help get Trump elected, but will tire of his role in DOGE.
I, too, am ready for 2026.
Musk is not brilliant in his business dealings. He was born with money and bought the right companies - ones he did not start. In Tesla's case, he forced out the 2 who invented it. Much of his "business" is government contracts for SpaceX - not selling something on the market, or changing it like Steve Jobs or any other true innovators. His management of twitter was not to improve its business, but to create a nazi-friendly platform. People need to stop calling him brilliant - he's just rich and ruthless.
Exactly. Thank you.
I think you underestimate Space X. Overall, it’s been very successful and innovative in their mission (compare to Boeing, which has floundered).
The clip of Musk striding the halls of the Capitol, with his toddler son on his shoulders and a big grin on his face, in a triumphal procession followed by newspeople, fawining legislators, and Lord know who sent chills up my spine. I could almost hear him whisper, "Take a good look, Sonny Boy, this will all soon be yours." In Musk, we have found a man who is fundamentally as shallow as Trump, but he is even more dangerous because he is more capable and practiced at the use of surgical power behind the scenes.
He needs more money for what? Is his ultimate goal to just buy his way to being the most powerful man in the world? Once the position of POTUS is downgraded, who will stop him from becoming just that?
Barbara, if you think Musk is a brilliant businessman, you must think Trump is a brilliant businessman, too. After all, that's what the media says, right?
Musk is a thief of other people's ideas and billions in government subsidies. He's a brilliant thief and con artist, I'll give you that.
Here's an idea. Since The Pentagon failed its seventh audit in a row, give Musk and the other guy an office deep in the Pentagon layers I am sure there is some waste somewhere in that $824 BILLION budget.
Robert says: "Despite the bravado and tough talk of Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Speaker-In-Name-Only Mike Johnson, it is highly unlikely that Republicans will succeed in cutting Social Security, Medicare, Veterans healthcare, and a variety of other safety net programs and federal agencies."
I take a different view. Citizens United has opened the doors for Musk to buy any one or group of politicians or judges he needs to make votes go his way. He got Trump for about $150 mio. How hard cans Johnson be?
I am extremely troubled by Ro Kanna and Moskowitz praise of DOGE. We have see this too many times, Democrats thinking they can work with extremist. If they are your Rep, please call them out. I wrote this in yesterday’s comment but will again today:
Dems should NOT bail out GOP, starting with the budget vote. No "Yes" budget votes unless Dems extract concessions to change the balance of power. See what the GOP is doing in NC. Democrats have power, they need to use it!.
And they (in the 119th congress) need to oppose the unacceptable nominations, too. They need to oppose all of the ones that are bad news for this country and not fall into a trap of viewing them in a context of even more horrifying ones that came before. A smaller monster that only eats children isn't okay because it's slightly less horrifying than a larger one that eats children and babies. Trump needs to realize he can't just threaten to strafe and land mine the border before he mines it so our D representatives and slightly saner R ones way "whew" and sit back.
From Heather Cox Richardson this morning, “In addition to the $20.5 million to the RBG PAC, (Musk) put $238 million into the America PAC. Musk also supported Trump through free advertising and commentary on his social media platform X.” So 1/4 of a billion to buy an election. Pretty cheap for a guy worth $337.3BILLION; less than one percent of his net worth. Pretty painless investment to become the power behind Trump’s gold-plated throne.