The 2026 election begins today.
December 6, 2024
On Thursday, Lucy once again pulled the football away from Charlie Brown at the last moment--to no one’s surprise. Republicans dropped all pretense of helping the “little guy” whose support Trump courted during the election. Instead, Republicans made clear that the working class, unions, retirees, veterans, and disabled Americans will be roadkill in the headlong rush to extend Trump's 2017 tax cut for millionaires and big corporations.
Before looking at the details, I urge readers to maintain a clear distinction between two closely related sets of facts:
Despite the bravado and tough talk of Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Speaker-In-Name-Only Mike Johnson, it is highly unlikely that Republicans will succeed in cutting Social Security, Medicare, Veterans healthcare, and a variety of other safety net programs and federal agencies. See Business Insider, Trump's former chief of staff says Elon Musk will have an easier time getting to Mars than making proposed DOGE cuts.
Notwithstanding the remote prospects of implementing the cuts, Democrats must treat those efforts as a frontal assault on the working class, unions, veterans, retirees, and disabled Americans, converting the proposals into an albatross around the necks of House Republicans going into the 2026 midterms.
So, we must hold firm to two thoughts: (1) Do not panic over every pronouncement from court jesters Musk and Ramaswamy, but (2) raise the alarm about their reckless pronouncements at every opportunity.
The shocking proposed cuts to social programs discussed by Musk and Ramaswamy on Thursday must be treated as the opening salvo of the 2026 midterms.
What happened on Thursday?
Musk and Ramaswamy held a closed-door meeting with the GOP congressional caucus to discuss cutting $2 trillion from a $6.5 trillion annual budget. Other than “tough guy” talking points, Musk and Ramaswamy offered no concrete solutions. See The Independent, Elon Musk came to DC to lots of fanfare. But he said surprisingly little of substance.
After the meetings, Republican lawmakers avoided any discussion of cuts to specific programs—except to say that Musk and Ramaswamy want to “cut waste.” Well, there’s a shocker! Who doesn’t want to “eliminate waste”?
Although Trump has repeatedly promised that he will not cut Social Security, Musk has been amplifying calls on Twitter by Republican Senator Mike Lee to cut Social Security. It is always a bad idea to contradict a president-elect about proposed policies; doing so with Trump is usually the shortest path to a breakup. See MSNBC, Opinion by Ryan Teague Beckwith | Republicans are suddenly interested in cutting Social Security.
As of Thursday evening, Fox News is reporting that cuts to “Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are on the table.”
But the Musk-Ramaswamy proposals don’t stop there. Per Steve Ratner on BlueSky (@steverattner.bsky.social), the bulk of additional savings will come from proposed cuts to
· VA Healthcare - $516 billion (100% reduction)
· National Institutes of Health - $47 billion (eliminate NIH)
· Pell Grants - $22 billion (80% reduction)
· Head Start - $12 billion (100% reduction)
· FBI -$11 billion (out of $11.3 billion budget)
· Federal Prisons -$8 billion (100% reduction)
· SEC - $2 billion (out of $2.1 billion current budget)
A careful review of the above proposed cuts reveals that the Musk cuts will effectively eliminate the following agencies and programs: VA healthcare, NIH, Head Start, FBI, Federal Prisons, and the SEC.
The cuts are nonsensical—which is why you should not lie awake at night worrying about them. But because they are nonsensical, we must begin hammering on those proposals as our opening salvo in the 2026 midterms.
And I dearly hope that all the pundits who have been (wrongly) castigating Democrats for “ignoring” the working class will condemn Republicans with equal zeal for the cuts proposed by Musk and Ramaswamy.
The proposed cuts show that Trump was lying to the working class, using them as pawns to pay for the extension of the 2017 tax cuts for millionaires and corporations. Disgusting! That betrayal must be in the opening paragraph of every op-ed, mailer, TikTok, Substack, and speech given by Democrats between now and Election Day 2026.
President Biden considers blanket pre-emptive pardons for people on Trump's political enemies list
Trump and his nominee for FBI Director, Kash Patel, have identified several dozen politicians as the targets of political prosecutions. Trump and Patel have called for the indictment and jailing of Trump's political opponents. Patel has proposed using criminal and civil lawsuits to harass Trump's perceived enemies. Elon Musk has called Alexander Vindman a “traitor” who “will pay the price.”
It is worth pausing to reflect on the fact that there is no historical antecedent for an incoming president vowing to use the power of the federal government to prosecute, persecute, jail, and (possibly) execute his political enemies. Such threats are unlawful, extra-judicial, unconstitutional, and incompatible with the rule of law.
The threats are real. Republican Senator John Cornyn said on Thursday that Kash Patel “will” be confirmed as FBI Director. See Politico, Cornyn says Kash Patel ‘will be’ confirmed to lead the FBI.
And Patel is not waiting to be confirmed to make good on his threat to harass opponents with civil suits. Patel’s attorneys sent a letter to former Trump advisor Olivia Troye threatening to sue her for defamation. See HuffPo, Kash Patel Threatens Legal Action Against Former Colleague.
Given the unprecedented nature of the threats, President Biden is considering blanket, pre-emptive pardons for people included on the Trump / Patel “hit lists.” See NYTimes, Biden Team Considers Blanket Pardons Before Trump’s Promised ‘Retribution’. (Accessible to all.)
The political, legal, and constitutional calculus of granting such pardons is complicated. It is not clear that all of those on the target lists would accept such a pardon. Nor is it clear that Biden will grant them.
As I wrote yesterday, we should not allow a lack of imagination to deter us from taking bold action. Whatever we imagine Trump will do, he will do worse. President Biden should assume that Trump's threats are real and actionable. Granting blanket, pre-emptive pardons would be unprecedented—just like Trump's pre-emptive threats to prosecute political opponents.
Harry Litman resigns from the Los Angeles Times
Harry Litman is a former federal prosecutor, opinion columnist for the Los Angeles Times, and frequent guest on MSNBC. On Thursday, he announced that he was resigning from the LA Times because of its capitulation to Donald Trump. See Mediate, L.A. Times Columnist Quits Because of ‘Cowering’ Owner’s ‘Shameful Capitulation’ to Trump.
Litman is also a Substack author. See Talking Feds Substack. In fact, Litman explained his decision to leave the LA Times in a Substack post, Why I Just Resigned From The Los Angeles Times.
Litman writes,
Yesterday, I resigned my position. I don’t want to continue to work for a paper that is appeasing Trump and facilitating his assault on democratic rule for craven reasons.
My resignation is a protest and visceral reaction against the conduct of the paper’s owner, Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong. Soon-Shiong has made several moves to force the paper, over the forceful objections of his staff, into a posture more sympathetic to Donald Trump.
Those moves can’t be defended as the sort of policy adjustment papers undergo from time to time, and that an owner, within limits, is entitled to influence.
Given the existential stakes for our democracy that I believe Trump’s second term poses, and the evidence that Soon-Shiong is currying favor with the President-elect, they are repugnant and dangerous.
At a time when many in the media are caving to and currying favor with Trump, Harry Litman’s actions stand out. He is a new and welcome presence on Substack. I hope you will take a moment to read his post and consider supporting his Substack publication by becoming a free or paying subscriber.
When people do the right thing, we should support them. Harry Litman did the right thing. He serves as an inspiration to all of us—and to others in the media!
Concluding Thoughts
The tide has shifted. It may not be obvious yet, but the fact that the Musk- Ramaswamy meeting with the GOP caucus led to a pathetic call to “eliminate waste” clearly shows that their meeting was a flop. And their ridiculous calls to reduce Social Security, Medicare, Veterans healthcare, Medicaid, Head Start, and Pell Grants is a sucker punch to the gut of working-class voters who believed Trump was going to make their lives better. The fact that those cuts will be made to extend the tax breaks for millionaires and corporations is salt in the wound.
Speaker Mike Johnson knows that he has four members of his caucus in districts that Kamala Harris won. Those four seats are the difference in control of the House in 2026—and they exceed his margin of control in the House. If Johnson’s first bill extends tax cuts for the wealthy and his second bill attempts to cut Social Security and Medicare benefits, those GOP seats in districts Kamala Harris won will start to look awfully vulnerable.
Whether we like it or not, the 2026 midterm campaign has begun. And while we cannot rely on Republicans to beat themselves, we can and should be prepared to take advantage of every misstep by Trump, Musk, Ramaswamy, Patel, Johnson, Robert Kennedy, Tulsi Gabbard, and others. Those missteps are coming fast. We have work to do. It’s time to get back in the game.
Talk to you tomorrow!
Daily Dose of Perspective
Below is an image of NGC 1893, a nebula 12,400 light years from Earth and 83 light years in diameter.
You will note a dark band that dissects the bottom quarter of the nebula. That is an artifact caused by a power line I first noticed when I began processing the image. I tried to remove the power line using Photoshop’s AI “remove wires” function. It removed the wire but left a noticeable dark band. Perhaps AI isn’t ready to replace us (yet)!
Enjoy!
Robert, I agree with your political analysis. You have, however, not gotten the economics right.
Cutting federal spending is not “to pay for the trillions in tax cuts” for billionaires. Cutting federal spending is simply to HARM people. The debt & the deficit are merely excuses to do that.
Think about it. The national debt & annual deficits are merely accounting, bookkeeping & bear no relationship to the REAL (as distinct from the financial) economy. The real economy is people working, firms producing, infrastructure repairing, home building, food growing. Financial transactions facilitate those essential economic activities —- but they are not identical to those REAL economic activities (again real as distinct from financial not real as distinct from fake).
What people who care about actual human wellbeing (this is real in the economic sense) should be concerned with is how well are people doing? Do they have decent jobs at decent wages & decent conditions? Is the air clean? Is the water safe? Will driving across the bridge to work kill you bc it is likely to collapse?
What does the budget deficit or national debt have to do with any of that? Precisely nothing.
Now, if this was a gold standard world there would be a case to be made for balancing budgets bc gold holdings by the sovereign government would be a constraint on the creation of governmental capacity to create financial assets.
But we’re not in the 19th or 20th century anymore. The U.S. is in the enviable global position of being sovereign in our own currency (we have a global monopoly on the creation of dollars), we are the richest nation, and our dollars are the world’s reserve currency. That means every government, every major corporation, every bank and every billionaire holds dollar denominated assets. Chief among the dollar denominated assets are U.S. Treasury bills.
There have been at least a dozen times in just the last 15 years where the world has been willing to lend the U.S. trillions AT NEGATIVE (inflation adjusted) INTEREST RATES. Why? Bc US T bills are the safest asset in the world (unless the ItThing and his evil cabal wreck that).
Last time I looked the total offering of TBills was sold out within hours of issue. The world economy depends on US government debt. Without it governments corporations & banks would have no safe haven for idle balances, the cash on hand that has no immediate use.
Now to the mechanics of government debt. When the various issues of TBills come due, Treasury just issues new ones to pay off the ones that are due. No big deal. The U.S. government—with its sovereign ability to create dollars—is not like a household or a corporation.
Unlike persons the government can’t die —or go bankrupt (well hopefully … these wreckers at the helm might do that … but it won’t be bc of the debt/deficit). We can’t go bankrupt bc as long as Americans & the world want dollars, we have a monopoly & can supply dollars … into infinity. (Not saying that’s good, just that it’s possible).
The U.S. can no more run out of dollars than football can run out of touch-downs.
The key take-away: Accepted wisdom on balanced budgets & the deficit is wholly incorrect. Fears about the size of deficits & the national debt is a conceptual Trojan horse … always at hand to put the kabosh on spending that actually helps the real economy.
Notice how the debt! The deficit! Are never trotted out to fear monger about tax cuts for billionaires? That’s bc the federal government’s budget position is basically irrelevant. It doesn’t EVER have to be paid back. Just pay off old debt by issuing new debt.
And remember: every dollar of debt is matched exactly by a dollar of assets. Balancing the budget requires destroying assets…bc it reduces debt.
Worrying about budget deficits & the national debt is the way neoliberal economics knee-capped the Keynsianism that made the U.S. middle class the envy of the world.
Susan
Cutting back Medicare is one thing. But allowing Dr. Oz to foist Medicare Advantage or worse on us all is a travesty. I hear very little pushback on Oz. Even my Senator Fetterman who ran against him in PA seems complacent on this.