The thing that jumped out at me this time is your observation about the disconnect between the polls, and the lived experience of Democrats working in the field. The polls claim the race is close, but nobody I know plans to vote for Trump. The polls discount new voters, who skew heavily Democratic, and I have never, ever answered a phone poll, and I think that applies to a lot of people. The enthusiasm is palpable, people are giving tons of money to Democrats, and one of my neighbors has taken down a huge Trump banner, though other signs are still up. I think Harris will win by enough votes to make it impossible to challenge the results, though of course he will.
I am no longer reading any emails or blogs except you and Simon Rosenberg. My nerves are already quieter. And I'm grinding out the postcards, and intend to ignore all the noise until after the election. God, what a miserable campaign season it's been. I am SO beyond tired of Trump and the rest of the Nazis I could scream..
For all of the ugliness by Trump and his MAGA, I feel a spark of joy every time I read of someone like you "grinding out the postcards!" And of course sparks of joy for others' canvassing, phone/text banking, wearing t-shirts/hats, putting out yard signs, being election workers, curing ballots, and talking it up with friends, family, co-workers, and neighbors!
I have my Cat Ladies for Harris yard sign out, and just ordered a Veteran for Harris sign, plus another sign with a cat on it. I think it just says "Harris" but I'm not sure. The cat is the snootiest thing you can imagine. :D I'm also painting a sign of my own. Since I can't even fingerpaint without screwing it up, I've just painted a piece of cardboard white and will paint "VOTE" on it, over and over in various sizes. My hope is that people will think it's a clever art piece and not just a mess.
Well placed comments on social media...."Not suckers or losers" to vets groups, military, military dependents, history sites. Vote vets has thousands of testimonials of 2020 Trump voters that flipped. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans or active duty members on Facebook, and 12.5 million family members of veterans or active duty members on Facebook.
Actually....it WORKS. Go to pet/animal charities and see for yourself Better yet go to a dog park.
I've had umpteen "conversations" when I sent copies from Ivana Trump's memoirs, where she laid it out...cites to NYT, other publications where it was discussed to follow up. Typically others will comment affirmatively.
None of this stiff works overnight. Requires constant reminders.
I'd love to show you, but I don't know how to post a photo to this chat. I just finished it, btw. I can take a photo and sent it to my email, but after that I don't know what to do. :D I just painted a piece of cardboard white and then painted VOTE all over it in three different colors of blue. It looks like a kid did it, but that's my artistic level. If you know how to upload things let me know, please.
I have been writing postcards and Vote Forward letters and mailing the backlog of postcards that I wrote over the summer with "hold to mail until 10/xx". I still have a bunch to mail plus 50 postcards to write and send late (part of a wave of 3 postcards to first time voters) as well as 45 Vote Forward letters.
Tomorrow night I am attending a Taco Tuesday event where we will writing postcards to Democrats living in Charlotte in high rise apartments that can't be canvassed. I believe that they have printed labels and some preprinted info, so hopefully they will go quickly!!
I am also “grinding out” postcards. Tomorrow is my mailing day, but do feel calmer after each reading of Robert’s daily news. Voting for me is done .. in Maine, an easy activity
I was at an Indivisible Twin Cities post carding event yesterday. Held at a craft brewery in St. Paul, there were 30+ volunteers writing postcards destined for New York, New Jersey and New Mexico. I sat at a table with five other people and the enthusiasm, knowledge, dedication and determination these folks showed was contagious - in the best possible way. Yes, I live in blue trifecta Minnesota so I know that there are lots of Democrats and that St. Paul is a deep blue city- And I do mean deep blue. But it felt good to me to look around and reassure myself that MAGA- style Republican politics doesn’t have much of a foothold in the Twin Cities - unlike the south suburban district I live in. And while no one in my family votes Republican any more, I have family in the blue dot in Nebraska, some in deep red Louisiana, and more in a purple section of Indiana. They struggle to not hit the panic button after new polls come out that lean GOP - ugh.
Taking action helps. Grateful that so many like us grind out the postcards, make the calls and are knocking on doors. Harris/Walz!! Let’s do this!
Sheila B I'm also thankful for people like you who are helping. For family who are overwhelmed I forward one of Robert's newsletters and tell them to subscribe or let me know if they want me to forward more. They usually just sign up and breathe easier.
Ellen here---Like you Karla we never answer the phone if we don't recognize the number. Nor do our friends. We all have caller ID. So a very large segment of of the Democrats here in NH never join a poll and I'm sure that's the case all over. They will hear from us all on election day, loud and clear.
Hey Robert, hope you’re well. My wife and I on a driving trip around Sicily and we stopped in a small grocery store in Cefalu yesterday and at checkout a young staffer asked where we were from. We said NC and the United States and he immediately asked “are you for Trump or Biden?” We told him it was now Trump vs Harris - but the fact that he cared told me a lot He told us he always asks Americans that question and to date he’s only had one person/couple “vote” for Trump. So that’s the polling from here in Sicily- margin of error unknown. Ciao
I have found that in the UK and Europe the "man on the street" or, in this case, the clerk in the store know far more about American politics than the average citizen of the US (who isn't a political junkie) does!
Why I am very optimistic about Nov... It's not the polls... It's the 2020 numbers.
Here's my back of the envelope forecast:
The Joe Biden coalition of voters beat Donald Trump by 7 million votes in 2020, +81 million to 74 million, that is + 7 million votes! So the first question in forecasting this Nov's outcome is...Has Harris/Walz pulled the Biden coalition back together?
Miraculously, the answer is yes. Mostly..
Mostly means 3.5 million Biden voters have passed away based on mortality averages and it's likely 5-6 million voters simply can't vote for a Black woman for president. This includes Black and Latino men and White guys who believe a woman leader is either "weak" or "strident", both unattractive attributes in a President.
This leaves Kamala with 72-73 million votes from the Biden coalition. What is she likely to add? 7 million young first time voters, 3 million activated, pro-reproductive freedom white women voters, 1 million extra Black woman voters, 2 million Never Trump Republicans, Independents and Haley voters.
This brings Kamal's vote total to 85-86 million. And there is potential for more Harris votes because Trump is such a more deranged, repellant candidate this cycle than he was in 2020.
And what does Trump have? Trump starts with 71 million because 3 million of his voters have passed away. He adds maybe 3 million of those voters who cannot vote for a Black woman, 2 million young first time voters plus 1 million Black and Latino male voters. That gives Trump 75-77 million votes tops.
I think this total is optimistic because, as I said above, Trump is a more deranged, repellant candidate than he was in 2020. It's very likely that Trump will lose more voters and not get to the 74 million he got in 2020.
We have at least 10-15 million volunteers working day and night to put Kamala over the top. Trump has Trump and a very small ground game.
With my forecast, Kamala is likely to win the popular vote by 6%-7%. 53% to 47%. Enough to win the electoral vote with 4 swing states. And what about those scary polls? The polls have become particularly unstable but are are trending in Harris direction. Harris is up by 4-5% in more polls. If she wins by +6% the pollsters can say it was in the margin of error so why were we so irate? Actually because political polls, no matter how unbiased they try to be, partisan political tools that journalists use to tell election stories.
We just have to remember, polls don't win elections, voters do! So we have to keep going at 150% and sleep after Nov. 5th
Comparing the numbers on election days 2020 and 2024 it would seem incomprehensible (impossible?) if support for Dems wouldn't increase and support for trump/MAGA would decrease: the insurrection attempt, Roe v Wade, the felon's mental decline and the whole movement having openly gone fascist should make a difference overall.
But if we go into the detailed business of adding and subtracting numbers of certain voter groups: Quite a large segment of the deceased since 2020 are victims of the pandemic. According to experts about 300.000 to 400.000 out of the total of 1,2 million died as a direct result of the felon's irresponsible, partisan and at times downright crazy response to the challenge. Numbers also seem to indicate that the death rate was higher in red states or counties than blue ones.
For some (quite inexplicable, at least to me) reason the felon's botched reaction to the Covid challenge was not a campaign issue. But wouldn't it be an irony of history if the missing votes of those who were victimized by the felon during the pandemic would be the ones now making the difference on Nov 5?
What is the impact of organizations like FT 6, Movement Labs, that register new Democrats? Saturday FT 6 sent over 854K more texts to PA, MD, NE, NV and WI and yesterday 3 programs to MICHIGAN . https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/
If you add the results of every voting opportunity since the Dobbs decision, you will probably feel even better. The 2022 midterms were supposed to be a "red wave" in response to Pres. Biden's policies. Instead, Republicans barely kept control of the house despite a "friendly" map. In addition, every state referendum on reproductive freedom has resulted in a confirmation of women's rights. The first, in the very red state of Kansas, was polling nearly even ahead of the vote, but ended up being a blow-out 18 point victory for women's rights. Since then, reproductive rights have been sustained every time they are on the ballot.
Older white adults tend to make up a large percentage of Trump supporters. So if that's the category of those who have passed away (logically) there should be less voters of that category voting for Trump. (Regardless, I'm a still-alive 72 y/o white male proudly voting for Harris.) Many of the newer voters are the younger ones who tend to lean towards Harris, so we can hope. On the other hand, I'm not leaving it up to hope nor statistics. I'm working on increasing the numbers of Harris voters going to actually vote. Let's do this!!
I wish everyone could see what I can see. The election will not be close. Harris will win by a lot. The senate will be safe. There will be a very tumultuous and probably scary time after the vote until things get sorted out. But in the end, a new beginning. But here’s the thing. Like Robert says, we need to be in it for the long game. One person at the top can not change everything for the better - presto changeo.
Here in the UK Labor swept into office over the Tories and they have been a disaster in their first 100 days. I am very disappointed but that does not mean I have lost heart. It will be wonderful to have Harris/Walz in the White House but they are only two people. The good news is we are many. Something new is being born all over the world and birthing takes a lot of effort, hope and perseverance. Some folks are still stuck in a dark tunnel of numbing fear and a spell of hate. But others see the light shining ahead. The nasturtiums developing roots on my kitchen table reach beautifully for the light. All new life does.
So, Listen to your heart, find a safe place, join with others and take heart. ❤️
Thank you for still being the voice of reason, Robert. I especially like this part, and will restack with this as a note:
"While we should not discount Republican efforts to interfere in the count of electoral votes, many commentators who are peddling stories about Republican cheating do not acknowledge, much less discuss, the protections of the ECRA. Now you know the full story!"
Robert, for the record, I have never gotten to the point of saying, when reading your newsletter, “Too long, didn’t read”. I read every word every time you publish. You and HCR are my morning staple, along with a delicious cup of steaming coffee.
Swing Left organizes day bus trips to nearby swing districts for volunteer canvassers. Here are details for an upcoming trip to CA-13 to canvass for Adam Gray.
Thank you, Deepak, for highlighting these critical Top 15 Senate races for where our support matters most. (Love Len Len Lubinsky!) Is a similar list of Top House races that matter most forthcoming?
He started with 11 races and recently added 4 more that appear at the top of the page. Hopium subcribers have been donating to these races as well as writing postcards and phonebanking. Postcards (https://person2person-d15a54383d00.herokuapp.com/) are being written to strong Democrats to encourage them to vote as early as possible.
Here are some other resources. Note: they all list the GOP incumbent rather that the Democratic challenger as Simon does. But many of the races are the same:
I recall, in 2008 and in 2012, when the networks were wearying of the race (mid-October), there was a steady drumbeat of "It's McCain!" or "It's Romney!". I also remember waiting up to hear Obama's victory speed and seeing everyone in Denver with eyes up, as John McCain gracefully conceded. Romney did the same in 2012, but I was asleep by then. This year, we're starting to see the same trend-and yet, there is no decrease in Kamala Harris's popularity-except inside the newsrooms.
Karla, i see that disconnect to! I am not shy about my Harris support and continue to be more than cautiously optimistic about the election outcome. Acquaintances have approached me when i am out about or by PM indicating their support for Harris. I wear a "Harris*24" bracelet that an 11 year old girl made and sold to raise money for postage for GOTV postcards. I also get great reports from friends that canvas and friends who have gone to her rallies.
Go, Young Dems! Saturday pre-football game, CA Congressman Ro Khanna came to Univ of Georgia to “tailgate and GOTV.” Impressive guy, inspiring experience!
I keep thinking of how Tom Suozzi went into his special election race up by one point in the polls, but won the actual voting by eight points. Or how in Kansas the pro-choice side was favored to lose by four points, but wound up winning by 18. And how Fetterman was behind in the polls on Election Day, only to win his race. Or the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, which an expert poll watcher like Jay Kuo though was going to be a one- or two-point win wound up being a 10-point victory.
The section about Democrats Abroad triggered something that I recently learned. My cousin's daughter and her family live in Australia. She recently posted something rather distressing on FB. Apparently Australia's Postal Service has decided that they will no longer accept mail addressed to an US PO Box, which is probably where most election mail is addressed. She said that she and her husband are going to mail their sealed ballots to her parents, who will then deposit in US mail, but I wonder how many Americans living in Australia are aware of this change.
Hi, Ruth. Your cousin's daughter appears to have posted disinformation. Per the official Australia Post website, the only restrictions on delivering to US Post Office boxes is for International Courier service and Parcel Express--i.e., services for expedited delivery of "urgent parcels." That is very similar to the restrictions by FedEx--which will not deliver to privately owned post office boxes. (It will deliver to post office boxes at a US post office.). See this guidance from the official Australia Post website: https://auspost.com.au/sending/parcels-overseas/international-post-guide/results/united-states
At the very least you should ask your cousin's daughter to quote the specific restrictions on delivery to a post office box by citing the official language on the Australia Post website.
Not only is this disinformation but, vis a vis ballots, no one can register to vote using a P.O. box. It's required to register with an actual residential address.
Morning Robert -- I was so knocked out by the video you and Jessica Craven made featuring Drew Kromer, Chair of the Mecklenberg Co. Dems, that I signed up for last night's phone bank. The trainers/leaders were awesome, so patient with newbies, and the phone bank itself was so smart. We were asking Dems or left-leaning unaffiliated voters to join a door knocking effort in their Zip Code next weekend -- a big ask -- and every one of us callers had one or more voters say YES! MeckDems are working hard for the upcoming election as well as building for an infrastructure for future ones. Here's a link to sign up!https://substack.com/redirect/c3a2dce0-05ae-40ea-bb14-362f2feb13b9?j=eyJ1IjoiZ3gwaCJ9.TmgO3HMAReCVJgz1UZhfVUgCSWNsx9eBU11O-qYACno
Thanks, again, Robert...I have been ignoring polls, un less I hear something Simon R has to say on them....just my observation....I live in a VERY RED RURAL part of NC...people who rely on SS and Medicare but kvetch and vote against their own interests...anyway....I believe women, the LGBTQ+ community and those who love them will carry the day for Harris/Walz. I believe they live with men they won't argue with because of the conflict...but THEY WILL VOTE for THEIR best intersts and not argue...they will not speak to reporters, not post signs or wear clothing promoting..but they will vote and their husbands, fathers , uncles will NOT KNOW who they voted fore and they need say nothing..
that does not mean I don't think we al need to do what we can, cards, letters, texts, calls, speaking up where we can......confident but not complacent..
And as an aside...I'm sorry you might be puny...if you have some down time...look for the NOVA series on the Solar system....Strange Worlds....
The thing that jumped out at me this time is your observation about the disconnect between the polls, and the lived experience of Democrats working in the field. The polls claim the race is close, but nobody I know plans to vote for Trump. The polls discount new voters, who skew heavily Democratic, and I have never, ever answered a phone poll, and I think that applies to a lot of people. The enthusiasm is palpable, people are giving tons of money to Democrats, and one of my neighbors has taken down a huge Trump banner, though other signs are still up. I think Harris will win by enough votes to make it impossible to challenge the results, though of course he will.
I am no longer reading any emails or blogs except you and Simon Rosenberg. My nerves are already quieter. And I'm grinding out the postcards, and intend to ignore all the noise until after the election. God, what a miserable campaign season it's been. I am SO beyond tired of Trump and the rest of the Nazis I could scream..
For all of the ugliness by Trump and his MAGA, I feel a spark of joy every time I read of someone like you "grinding out the postcards!" And of course sparks of joy for others' canvassing, phone/text banking, wearing t-shirts/hats, putting out yard signs, being election workers, curing ballots, and talking it up with friends, family, co-workers, and neighbors!
I have my Cat Ladies for Harris yard sign out, and just ordered a Veteran for Harris sign, plus another sign with a cat on it. I think it just says "Harris" but I'm not sure. The cat is the snootiest thing you can imagine. :D I'm also painting a sign of my own. Since I can't even fingerpaint without screwing it up, I've just painted a piece of cardboard white and will paint "VOTE" on it, over and over in various sizes. My hope is that people will think it's a clever art piece and not just a mess.
We have the capacity to flip Trump 2020 voters. . https://rvat.org/
Well placed comments on social media...."Not suckers or losers" to vets groups, military, military dependents, history sites. Vote vets has thousands of testimonials of 2020 Trump voters that flipped. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans or active duty members on Facebook, and 12.5 million family members of veterans or active duty members on Facebook.
Trump hates dogs. Pet/animal charity sites.
Trump stole from kids with cancer.
DNC 2024 Victory (dncorganizeeverywhere.slack.com) is recruiting callers.
Instead of “Trump Hates Dogs”, which strikes me as a bit sophomoric, I think the signs should say “WHY does Trump hate dogs?”
Make people think.
Actually....it WORKS. Go to pet/animal charities and see for yourself Better yet go to a dog park.
I've had umpteen "conversations" when I sent copies from Ivana Trump's memoirs, where she laid it out...cites to NYT, other publications where it was discussed to follow up. Typically others will comment affirmatively.
None of this stiff works overnight. Requires constant reminders.
Would love to see a picture! Carry on
Here's a link to the sign I bought. I still haven't finished making mine and I don't know how to upload it to you anyway. If YOU know, let ME know. :D https://officialharriswalz.com/products/harris-walz24-yard-sign
That's a Great Sign! Also, page down for additional great yard signs and even greater car magnets for Harris/Walz.
Your sign sounds perfect Karla. Nice art work!
I'd love to show you, but I don't know how to post a photo to this chat. I just finished it, btw. I can take a photo and sent it to my email, but after that I don't know what to do. :D I just painted a piece of cardboard white and then painted VOTE all over it in three different colors of blue. It looks like a kid did it, but that's my artistic level. If you know how to upload things let me know, please.
I have been writing postcards and Vote Forward letters and mailing the backlog of postcards that I wrote over the summer with "hold to mail until 10/xx". I still have a bunch to mail plus 50 postcards to write and send late (part of a wave of 3 postcards to first time voters) as well as 45 Vote Forward letters.
Tomorrow night I am attending a Taco Tuesday event where we will writing postcards to Democrats living in Charlotte in high rise apartments that can't be canvassed. I believe that they have printed labels and some preprinted info, so hopefully they will go quickly!!
Awesome. Thank you.
I am also “grinding out” postcards. Tomorrow is my mailing day, but do feel calmer after each reading of Robert’s daily news. Voting for me is done .. in Maine, an easy activity
I was at an Indivisible Twin Cities post carding event yesterday. Held at a craft brewery in St. Paul, there were 30+ volunteers writing postcards destined for New York, New Jersey and New Mexico. I sat at a table with five other people and the enthusiasm, knowledge, dedication and determination these folks showed was contagious - in the best possible way. Yes, I live in blue trifecta Minnesota so I know that there are lots of Democrats and that St. Paul is a deep blue city- And I do mean deep blue. But it felt good to me to look around and reassure myself that MAGA- style Republican politics doesn’t have much of a foothold in the Twin Cities - unlike the south suburban district I live in. And while no one in my family votes Republican any more, I have family in the blue dot in Nebraska, some in deep red Louisiana, and more in a purple section of Indiana. They struggle to not hit the panic button after new polls come out that lean GOP - ugh.
Taking action helps. Grateful that so many like us grind out the postcards, make the calls and are knocking on doors. Harris/Walz!! Let’s do this!
Sheila B I'm also thankful for people like you who are helping. For family who are overwhelmed I forward one of Robert's newsletters and tell them to subscribe or let me know if they want me to forward more. They usually just sign up and breathe easier.
Thank you Robert
Ellen here---Like you Karla we never answer the phone if we don't recognize the number. Nor do our friends. We all have caller ID. So a very large segment of of the Democrats here in NH never join a poll and I'm sure that's the case all over. They will hear from us all on election day, loud and clear.
Hey Robert, hope you’re well. My wife and I on a driving trip around Sicily and we stopped in a small grocery store in Cefalu yesterday and at checkout a young staffer asked where we were from. We said NC and the United States and he immediately asked “are you for Trump or Biden?” We told him it was now Trump vs Harris - but the fact that he cared told me a lot He told us he always asks Americans that question and to date he’s only had one person/couple “vote” for Trump. So that’s the polling from here in Sicily- margin of error unknown. Ciao
I have found that in the UK and Europe the "man on the street" or, in this case, the clerk in the store know far more about American politics than the average citizen of the US (who isn't a political junkie) does!
They probably read The Guardian 😉
💔😳
Why I am very optimistic about Nov... It's not the polls... It's the 2020 numbers.
Here's my back of the envelope forecast:
The Joe Biden coalition of voters beat Donald Trump by 7 million votes in 2020, +81 million to 74 million, that is + 7 million votes! So the first question in forecasting this Nov's outcome is...Has Harris/Walz pulled the Biden coalition back together?
Miraculously, the answer is yes. Mostly..
Mostly means 3.5 million Biden voters have passed away based on mortality averages and it's likely 5-6 million voters simply can't vote for a Black woman for president. This includes Black and Latino men and White guys who believe a woman leader is either "weak" or "strident", both unattractive attributes in a President.
This leaves Kamala with 72-73 million votes from the Biden coalition. What is she likely to add? 7 million young first time voters, 3 million activated, pro-reproductive freedom white women voters, 1 million extra Black woman voters, 2 million Never Trump Republicans, Independents and Haley voters.
This brings Kamal's vote total to 85-86 million. And there is potential for more Harris votes because Trump is such a more deranged, repellant candidate this cycle than he was in 2020.
And what does Trump have? Trump starts with 71 million because 3 million of his voters have passed away. He adds maybe 3 million of those voters who cannot vote for a Black woman, 2 million young first time voters plus 1 million Black and Latino male voters. That gives Trump 75-77 million votes tops.
I think this total is optimistic because, as I said above, Trump is a more deranged, repellant candidate than he was in 2020. It's very likely that Trump will lose more voters and not get to the 74 million he got in 2020.
We have at least 10-15 million volunteers working day and night to put Kamala over the top. Trump has Trump and a very small ground game.
With my forecast, Kamala is likely to win the popular vote by 6%-7%. 53% to 47%. Enough to win the electoral vote with 4 swing states. And what about those scary polls? The polls have become particularly unstable but are are trending in Harris direction. Harris is up by 4-5% in more polls. If she wins by +6% the pollsters can say it was in the margin of error so why were we so irate? Actually because political polls, no matter how unbiased they try to be, partisan political tools that journalists use to tell election stories.
We just have to remember, polls don't win elections, voters do! So we have to keep going at 150% and sleep after Nov. 5th
Comparing the numbers on election days 2020 and 2024 it would seem incomprehensible (impossible?) if support for Dems wouldn't increase and support for trump/MAGA would decrease: the insurrection attempt, Roe v Wade, the felon's mental decline and the whole movement having openly gone fascist should make a difference overall.
But if we go into the detailed business of adding and subtracting numbers of certain voter groups: Quite a large segment of the deceased since 2020 are victims of the pandemic. According to experts about 300.000 to 400.000 out of the total of 1,2 million died as a direct result of the felon's irresponsible, partisan and at times downright crazy response to the challenge. Numbers also seem to indicate that the death rate was higher in red states or counties than blue ones.
For some (quite inexplicable, at least to me) reason the felon's botched reaction to the Covid challenge was not a campaign issue. But wouldn't it be an irony of history if the missing votes of those who were victimized by the felon during the pandemic would be the ones now making the difference on Nov 5?
What is the effect that Trump underperformed in the primaries? Close to 30% in MI. 19% in Pa. https://www.haleyvotersforharris.org/
What is the impact of organizations like FT 6, Movement Labs, that register new Democrats? Saturday FT 6 sent over 854K more texts to PA, MD, NE, NV and WI and yesterday 3 programs to MICHIGAN . https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/
Numbers also seem to indicate that the death rate was higher in red states or counties than blue ones.
⬆️
Check out this informative blog post:
https://acasignups.net/23/04/04/march-likely-final-update-covid-death-rates-partisan-lean-vaccination-rate-wbivalent
Get the most recent covid booster shot.
Already did so :-)
Ellen here- interesting point at the end. Karma maybe???
If you add the results of every voting opportunity since the Dobbs decision, you will probably feel even better. The 2022 midterms were supposed to be a "red wave" in response to Pres. Biden's policies. Instead, Republicans barely kept control of the house despite a "friendly" map. In addition, every state referendum on reproductive freedom has resulted in a confirmation of women's rights. The first, in the very red state of Kansas, was polling nearly even ahead of the vote, but ended up being a blow-out 18 point victory for women's rights. Since then, reproductive rights have been sustained every time they are on the ballot.
✌️✌️
Awesome numbers. Fingers crossed. I'll tell you that's and that's my teeth.
Older white adults tend to make up a large percentage of Trump supporters. So if that's the category of those who have passed away (logically) there should be less voters of that category voting for Trump. (Regardless, I'm a still-alive 72 y/o white male proudly voting for Harris.) Many of the newer voters are the younger ones who tend to lean towards Harris, so we can hope. On the other hand, I'm not leaving it up to hope nor statistics. I'm working on increasing the numbers of Harris voters going to actually vote. Let's do this!!
YES! Trump has pulled out his J6 playbook as a guide for this election. GOTV activities now is our best move!
Vote the madman off the political stage💪
I wish everyone could see what I can see. The election will not be close. Harris will win by a lot. The senate will be safe. There will be a very tumultuous and probably scary time after the vote until things get sorted out. But in the end, a new beginning. But here’s the thing. Like Robert says, we need to be in it for the long game. One person at the top can not change everything for the better - presto changeo.
Here in the UK Labor swept into office over the Tories and they have been a disaster in their first 100 days. I am very disappointed but that does not mean I have lost heart. It will be wonderful to have Harris/Walz in the White House but they are only two people. The good news is we are many. Something new is being born all over the world and birthing takes a lot of effort, hope and perseverance. Some folks are still stuck in a dark tunnel of numbing fear and a spell of hate. But others see the light shining ahead. The nasturtiums developing roots on my kitchen table reach beautifully for the light. All new life does.
So, Listen to your heart, find a safe place, join with others and take heart. ❤️
Thank you for still being the voice of reason, Robert. I especially like this part, and will restack with this as a note:
"While we should not discount Republican efforts to interfere in the count of electoral votes, many commentators who are peddling stories about Republican cheating do not acknowledge, much less discuss, the protections of the ECRA. Now you know the full story!"
Robert, for the record, I have never gotten to the point of saying, when reading your newsletter, “Too long, didn’t read”. I read every word every time you publish. You and HCR are my morning staple, along with a delicious cup of steaming coffee.
Same here. ¡Salùd!
We do the exact same. Without fail, every morning. Seems essential now!
Top 15 Senate Races: Ranked By Where Your Support Matters Most. That includes Dan Osborn in Nebraska that Robert mentioned.
https://thedemlabs.org/2024/10/13/top-15-senate-races-ranked-by-where-your-support-matters-most/
Swing Left organizes day bus trips to nearby swing districts for volunteer canvassers. Here are details for an upcoming trip to CA-13 to canvass for Adam Gray.
https://arcg.is/11y4bD
Thank you, Deepak, for highlighting these critical Top 15 Senate races for where our support matters most. (Love Len Len Lubinsky!) Is a similar list of Top House races that matter most forthcoming?
Ellie,
Simon Rosenberg of Hopium Chronicals has a list of 15 House races:
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/winning-the-house-in-2024?r=1aiy5t&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
He started with 11 races and recently added 4 more that appear at the top of the page. Hopium subcribers have been donating to these races as well as writing postcards and phonebanking. Postcards (https://person2person-d15a54383d00.herokuapp.com/) are being written to strong Democrats to encourage them to vote as early as possible.
Here are some other resources. Note: they all list the GOP incumbent rather that the Democratic challenger as Simon does. But many of the races are the same:
* Swing Left: https://swingleft.org/p/house
* Cook Political Report: https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings. (I would concentrate on the Toss up races)
* Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-house/. (He rates fewer races as toss-up that CPR).
I wrote 260 letters to 7 states for Vote Forward.
Thank you, Cheryl—you rock! 💙
Simon Rosenberg has a list of House candidates we can support at winningthehouse.com
I recall, in 2008 and in 2012, when the networks were wearying of the race (mid-October), there was a steady drumbeat of "It's McCain!" or "It's Romney!". I also remember waiting up to hear Obama's victory speed and seeing everyone in Denver with eyes up, as John McCain gracefully conceded. Romney did the same in 2012, but I was asleep by then. This year, we're starting to see the same trend-and yet, there is no decrease in Kamala Harris's popularity-except inside the newsrooms.
Proves that the media prefers a Repub, even a patently deranged one.
Karla, i see that disconnect to! I am not shy about my Harris support and continue to be more than cautiously optimistic about the election outcome. Acquaintances have approached me when i am out about or by PM indicating their support for Harris. I wear a "Harris*24" bracelet that an 11 year old girl made and sold to raise money for postage for GOTV postcards. I also get great reports from friends that canvas and friends who have gone to her rallies.
Love the bracelet!
Recent survey of women below 30 show that reproductive freedom has surpassed inflation as their top concern. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/abortion-passes-inflation-as-top-election-concern-for-women-under-30-survey-finds
Abortion is on the ballot in Florida and 9 other states!
https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/dashboard/ballot-tracker-status-of-abortion-related-state-constitutional-amendment-measures/
Speaking of Fl, The U of F Election Lab has an early vote tracker. Caution:This w-site may be addictive!
Total Voted by Party Registration
Reporting states with party registration data: AZ, CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, FL, IA, ID, KY, ME, MD, NE, NV, NJ, NM, NC, OR, PA, RI, SD, WV, WY
Party Total
Voted Percent
Democrat 1,058,299 54.5 %
Republican 560,462 28.9 %
None/Minor 321,706 16.6 %
TOTAL 1,940,467 100 %
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
GOTV and encourage voting on Day1, or as early as possible !!🗳️
Go, Young Dems! Saturday pre-football game, CA Congressman Ro Khanna came to Univ of Georgia to “tailgate and GOTV.” Impressive guy, inspiring experience!
I keep thinking of how Tom Suozzi went into his special election race up by one point in the polls, but won the actual voting by eight points. Or how in Kansas the pro-choice side was favored to lose by four points, but wound up winning by 18. And how Fetterman was behind in the polls on Election Day, only to win his race. Or the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, which an expert poll watcher like Jay Kuo though was going to be a one- or two-point win wound up being a 10-point victory.
Let's do this again and watch the pundits cry.
The section about Democrats Abroad triggered something that I recently learned. My cousin's daughter and her family live in Australia. She recently posted something rather distressing on FB. Apparently Australia's Postal Service has decided that they will no longer accept mail addressed to an US PO Box, which is probably where most election mail is addressed. She said that she and her husband are going to mail their sealed ballots to her parents, who will then deposit in US mail, but I wonder how many Americans living in Australia are aware of this change.
Hi, Ruth. Your cousin's daughter appears to have posted disinformation. Per the official Australia Post website, the only restrictions on delivering to US Post Office boxes is for International Courier service and Parcel Express--i.e., services for expedited delivery of "urgent parcels." That is very similar to the restrictions by FedEx--which will not deliver to privately owned post office boxes. (It will deliver to post office boxes at a US post office.). See this guidance from the official Australia Post website: https://auspost.com.au/sending/parcels-overseas/international-post-guide/results/united-states
At the very least you should ask your cousin's daughter to quote the specific restrictions on delivery to a post office box by citing the official language on the Australia Post website.
Yikes!
I am voting by mail from France but I had the option of voting by FAX (the only downside is that election personnel can read your selections)
Not only is this disinformation but, vis a vis ballots, no one can register to vote using a P.O. box. It's required to register with an actual residential address.
https://voterhelpdesk.usvotefoundation.org/en/support/solutions/articles/151000049163-can-i-use-a-p-o-box-as-my-address-
Morning Robert -- I was so knocked out by the video you and Jessica Craven made featuring Drew Kromer, Chair of the Mecklenberg Co. Dems, that I signed up for last night's phone bank. The trainers/leaders were awesome, so patient with newbies, and the phone bank itself was so smart. We were asking Dems or left-leaning unaffiliated voters to join a door knocking effort in their Zip Code next weekend -- a big ask -- and every one of us callers had one or more voters say YES! MeckDems are working hard for the upcoming election as well as building for an infrastructure for future ones. Here's a link to sign up!https://substack.com/redirect/c3a2dce0-05ae-40ea-bb14-362f2feb13b9?j=eyJ1IjoiZ3gwaCJ9.TmgO3HMAReCVJgz1UZhfVUgCSWNsx9eBU11O-qYACno
Wow!!! Thanks for volunteering and for the report from the field!
Thank you! ☘️
Thanks, again, Robert...I have been ignoring polls, un less I hear something Simon R has to say on them....just my observation....I live in a VERY RED RURAL part of NC...people who rely on SS and Medicare but kvetch and vote against their own interests...anyway....I believe women, the LGBTQ+ community and those who love them will carry the day for Harris/Walz. I believe they live with men they won't argue with because of the conflict...but THEY WILL VOTE for THEIR best intersts and not argue...they will not speak to reporters, not post signs or wear clothing promoting..but they will vote and their husbands, fathers , uncles will NOT KNOW who they voted fore and they need say nothing..
that does not mean I don't think we al need to do what we can, cards, letters, texts, calls, speaking up where we can......confident but not complacent..
And as an aside...I'm sorry you might be puny...if you have some down time...look for the NOVA series on the Solar system....Strange Worlds....
take care all
Yessss! Grind it out...we are almost there!