Just grind it out!
October 14, 2024
We have entered the portion of the campaign where we just need to grind it out! Early voting has started in many states. Indeed, 4.3 million Americans have already voted—a pace ahead of early votes in 2022, with Democrats showing an advantage in the increase in early votes. (It is difficult to compare to 2020 because of the Covid pandemic.) Simon Rosenberg explains that much of the Democratic advantage in early voting is concentrated in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—obviously a very good development.
Although the early vote data are encouraging, they provide no reason to relent. A slew of polls over the weekend showed a tightening race. I am deeply suspicious of all polls at this point. Every shift in the polls is accompanied by “just so stories” that explain why random shifts within the margin of error fit neatly into a media narrative. At this point, people are just making things up to fill the maw of public interest driven by anxiety and fear.
Don’t fall for it. Just grind it out.
After I had written most of tonight’s newsletter, reader Stephen B. sent me a link to Ezra Klein’s op-ed in the NYTimes on Sunday evening, Ignore the Polls (Accessible to all.)
Klein writes,
Here’s a bit of advice to help maintain your sanity over the next few weeks until Election Day: Just ignore the polls. Unless you’re a campaign professional or a gambler, you’re probably looking at them for the same reason the rest of us are: to know who’ll win. Or at least to feel like you know who’ll win. But they just can’t tell you that.
Klein explains that the margin of error in the polls is large enough to swamp a “miss” by a point or two—something that has happened with regularity over the last several election cyles. So, since the polls predict a “margin of error race” they cannot tell us who will win. Instead, we must convert “margin of error” into a “margin of effort” race.
Klein’s reference to “gamblers” is apt, and an analysis published by Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo over the weekend drove home this point. Marshall reflected on the role of “betting markets” in the polling ecosphere.
Many readers cringe whenever they hear or see a prediction by Nate Silver, formerly of FiveThirtyEight.com. Silver has left FiveThirtyEight and is now affiliated with Polymarket, an offshore betting market backed by Peter Theil that accepts wagers on the US presidential election.
People who claim to be “in the know” tout betting markets as more accurate predictors than polling. Polymarket has generally been more favorable to Trump than traditional polling—so Trump touts the betting markets. See, for example, Forbes, Trump Touts Election Betting Market Numbers As He Surges Past Harris To Become Bookmakers’ Favorite.
Here’s the problem with Polymarket: It accepts wagers only in the form of cryptocurrency and only from people residing outside of the United States.
So we’re talking the insights into U.S. election outcomes of foreigners or expats trading in crypto. I am, shall we say, skeptical of the decisions and prognostications of that group.
And, of course, an outsized bet by a single person can change the odds. So, for example, if the richest man in the world (Musk) wanted to make it appear that Trump was doing better than shown by actual polls, he could change the odds by placing an outsized bet on Trump.
The Forbes article cited above makes this point:
[S]ome users on social media have pointed out that bets favoring Trump on Polymarket have come from so-called “whales” who hold large betting positions. One Polymarket bettor, who goes by “Fredi9999,” has raised his bets favoring a Trump win to almost $8 million.
I have now passed the “too long, didn’t read” limit, so here’s my point: Prediction of presidential election outcomes has become an independent industry with profit incentives frequently at odds with the truth and the preservation of democracy.
The anxieties of American voters are both the target and currency of polling and betting markets. A sophisticated, bad-faith actor could manipulate the facts and the odds to ensure their bet pays off. If that happens, the bettor becomes richer while American democracy becomes poorer.
Ignore the noise. Grind out the votes.
Notes from the field
Democrats are struggling with the apparent disconnect between what national polling claims is a tightening race and their experience on the ground. For example, the enthusiasm of for Kamala Harris is unabated (despite what commentators in major media are saying). Look at this video from Kamala Harris’s rally in North Carolina over the weekend: VP Kamala Harris Rally in North Carolina.
Kamala Harris is continuing to draw arena-filling crowds that are wildly enthusiastic—even though she continues to stay “on message” with her standard stump speech.
Every day I hear from readers who are canvassing and calling to “get out the vote.” Their experiences—as compared to prior elections—are uniformly encouraging. I was struck by a comment from reader Paula M. in Sunday’s Comment section. Paula and her husband live in France and set up a table each Saturday to encourage Americans to vote. See Today’s Edition, Sunday morning café. An excerpt of Paula’s post (which I encourage you to read in full), says the following:
Each Saturday my husband and I set up a votefromabroad.org table at the very busy and touristy open-air market in the small French town where we live.
Votefromabroad.org (VFA) is a Democrats Abroad (an official part of the Democratic Party) website. Registration is quick and easy.
* Each Saturday we have found several Americans who live abroad who are not registered and who take our VFA cards or bookmarks and promise to register.
* Yesterday, October 12, for the first time, every American we talked to, some living overseas and some tourists, emphatically told us they have already voted or, in the case of a couple tourists, will vote when they get home. All for Harris.
* We were especially gratified that two separate groups of students who walked by told us they have already voted from abroad! We need them!
* In 2020, approximately 18,000 overseas voters from Georgia and approximately 18,000 from Arizona gave Biden the margin of victory in those States. I hope our Get-Out-the-Vote efforts will massively improve on these numbers in every State of the Union!
* Members of Democrats Abroad around the world are phone banking, texting and postcard writing as well. Here in France we contacted 10,000 voters by phone or text and continue our outreach to Americans in other European countries.
The enthusiasm is so palpable! We WILL make a difference in this election.
Similar comments came by email from readers who canvassed in three swing states. They encountered Democratic enthusiasm from everyone who answered their door (targeted Democrats). They heard from those Democrats stories of friends and neighbors who were longtime Republicans who planned to vote for Kamala Harris.
Of course, anecdotes cannot substitute for data, but the experiences that readers are reporting to me align with the notions that this is a “turnout” election with high levels of Democratic enthusiasm that can overcome the “margin of error” with “a margin of effort.” Again, we just need to grind it out and ignore the noise.
Another reason flipping the House is so important
I noted in Saturday’s newsletter that the Electoral Count Reform Act (passed in 2022) protects against some of the tactics Republicans attempted on January 6, 2021. Two significant changes in the ECRA deserve comment.
In 2021, an objection to any slate of electors could be lodged if a single member from each chamber of Congress objected. That happened on January 6, 2021, when Josh Hawley (in the Senate) and several House members objected to the slate of electors in Arizona on the grounds of suspected fraud in the popular vote. Once an objection is made, the two chambers meet separately to consider the objection. A majority vote in both chambers is required to sustain an objection.
Under the ECRA, the procedure for objections has changed in two ways. First, the ECRA requires that 20% of the membership of both chambers support an objection before it can be considered. Second, the grounds for objections have been significantly narrowed by the ECRA.
The only grounds recognized for an objection are:
(I) The electors of the State were not lawfully certified under a certificate of ascertainment of appointment of electors . . . .
(II) The vote of one or more electors has not been regularly given.
None of the objections made by Republicans on January 6, 2021, met the above criteria. If they are made again on January 6, 2025, the President of the Senate, Kamala Harris, would rule the objections out of order and the count would be final.
Most importantly, if Democrats take control of the newly elected House (seated on January 3, 2025), then the new Democratic majority can overrule any objection and the count will become final.
While we should not discount Republican efforts to interfere in the count of electoral votes, many commentators who are peddling stories about Republican cheating do not acknowledge, much less discuss, the protections of the ECRA. Now you know the full story!
Opportunities for Reader Engagement
Follow-up on donations to Dan Osborn, the independent candidate running to unseat Republican Senator Deb Fischer in Nebraska.
Several readers who could not attend the 31st Street Swing Left fundraiser for Dan Osborn last week have asked how to contribute. Dan is an independent who is challenging the GOP incumbent US Senator from Nebraska, Deb Fischer. Dan has a chance to pull off an upset victory. See The Bulwark, An Independent Senate Candidate Sets off Alarm Bells in Deep-Red Nebraska.
The donation link through 31st Street Swing Left is here: Dan Osborn for Nebraska
Help Airlift flip three House seats in California
Winning the House is even more crucial to protect abortion rights with the Senate at risk. There are three House seats in California’s Central Valley ready to be flipped. That’s why Airlift is thrilled to hear from leaders of our partner group Communities for a New California (CNC) and Galvanize Action Thursday, October 17, 5:00 PM PT/8:00 ET at this crucial time with early voting already started.
Galvanize Action uses research-backed messaging to mobilize moderate women across the country to recognize their Blue values in support of abortion. CNC mobilizes Central Valley Latina women to vote those same values to help flip these three House seats. Help CNC thwart the GOP’s extremist agenda, including their determination to control what women can do with their bodies. Sign up here.
Concluding Thoughts
Sometimes it helps just to know that your feelings are shared by others. The newsletter titled, “Make a plan for Election Night and beyond” resonated with readers. Many responded by email to share private feelings about their anxieties and fears over the election and the future of our democracy. I won’t share those private reflections except to say that feelings of apprehension and anxiety are widespread.
But everyone—to a person—said they weren’t going to quit, no matter what. Most expressed their desire to deliver the gift of democracy safely to future generations. If we hold that moral compass close by, then time is our friend. We should act with urgency to win the battle at hand, but we should take solace in the fact that we do not need to win every battle next month. Indeed, we can’t. We just need to win enough of them to maintain steady progress.
Do not make the mistake of collapsing the future into a single event or date. History comes at us one day at a time. We can handle that—even as we make plans for ultimate victory over the long term.
Talk to you tomorrow!
Daily Dose of Perspective
The image below captures the Epsilon Orionis Nebula. The star in the foreground is Alnilam, a bright supergiant star that radiates 419,000 solar luminosities, i.e., it is 419,000 times as bright as our sun. Alnilam is the 29th brightest star in the sky (as viewed from Earth) and is the central star in “Orion’s Belt.”
Most deep-sky objects are dim, and space is black. When a bright star is in the foreground of the image, it overwhelms the camera’s sensor. It is easy to increase exposure in an image to enhance hidden detail. But when a bright object “blows out” the exposure of the image, it is impossible to decrease the exposure of that object to recover any detail.
The thing that jumped out at me this time is your observation about the disconnect between the polls, and the lived experience of Democrats working in the field. The polls claim the race is close, but nobody I know plans to vote for Trump. The polls discount new voters, who skew heavily Democratic, and I have never, ever answered a phone poll, and I think that applies to a lot of people. The enthusiasm is palpable, people are giving tons of money to Democrats, and one of my neighbors has taken down a huge Trump banner, though other signs are still up. I think Harris will win by enough votes to make it impossible to challenge the results, though of course he will.
I am no longer reading any emails or blogs except you and Simon Rosenberg. My nerves are already quieter. And I'm grinding out the postcards, and intend to ignore all the noise until after the election. God, what a miserable campaign season it's been. I am SO beyond tired of Trump and the rest of the Nazis I could scream..
Hey Robert, hope you’re well. My wife and I on a driving trip around Sicily and we stopped in a small grocery store in Cefalu yesterday and at checkout a young staffer asked where we were from. We said NC and the United States and he immediately asked “are you for Trump or Biden?” We told him it was now Trump vs Harris - but the fact that he cared told me a lot He told us he always asks Americans that question and to date he’s only had one person/couple “vote” for Trump. So that’s the polling from here in Sicily- margin of error unknown. Ciao