Make a plan for Election Night and beyond

October 12, 2024

Three weeks out from the election, I urge readers to make a plan for processing the results on Election Night and continuing your political engagement through and after January 20, 2025 --no matter what the outcome of the election.

Why am I doing this?

First, we aren’t going back. We can’t. The struggle against MAGA extremism will not end on Election Night, even if Democrats sweep the ballot. We have invested too much to get to this point, and it would be a tragedy to lose the passion and commitment that have carried us to this moment. We can no longer afford the luxury of a quadrennial commitment to the defense of democracy. Democracy needs defending every day, and it is our obligation to do so until we are relieved by the next generation.

Second, we should make plans and commitments now—three weeks out—so that our thinking is not clouded by irrational exuberance or despair after the results are known. Our plans to become daily guardians of democracy should not depend on the outcome of the 2024 elections. We must make long-term commitments now. If we don’t, we increase the potential for backsliding in 2026 and 2028. Let’s not make that mistake.

Third, readers are already sending emails expressing anxiety and dread over the outcome of the election, panicking over the thought that the trauma of 2016 might repeat. We cannot allow ourselves to fall victim to the naïve, binary thinking that caused us to misjudge the potential outcomes in 2016. I will address this point at length below, but the basic point is this: The presidential and congressional races are close. We should win most of the races that matter, but the electorate is evenly divided when viewed through the prism of the Electoral College and gerrymandered congressional districts.

Some of you are probably thinking, “Oh, god! Is he setting up for a possible loss?” Nope! Against my better judgment I will tell you that I am optimistic about the presidential race and the fight for control of Congress. I believe that pollsters and pundits have failed to recognize that the 2024 election is like no other election in the history of our nation and that a historic turnout will crush the perfunctory and unimaginative models created by pollsters.

Whenever I express that opinion, I get yelled at by lots of people who urge me to keep up the mantra that the election will be close. Many reasonable and well-intentioned people believe that fear is a better motivator than hope. I disagree. But to be clear, the polls tell us the race will be close, and we would be fools to relent even if the polls said we were leading by 10 points. Don’t let up. Don’t leave anything on the table.

My point in sharing my true feelings is to assuage any concern that I am trying to prepare you for defeat. We need to make plans for the future and recognize that election night might hold surprises. If we don’t, we will set ourselves up for trauma that can be avoided by a clear-eyed assessment of the challenges we face.

But we must be realistic, even in our optimism. One reason the defeat in 2016 was so devasting is that we did not internalize the possibility that we might lose. We saw that Hillary was favored to win 70% of the time in prediction models and translated those odds into “Hillary will win.”  To state the obvious, a 70% chance of winning is not a 100% chance of winning. Nate Silver never tires of reminding us that Hillary’s defeat was contemplated within the 70%-to-30% spread.

With all of the above as background, I want to review a few aspects of the election outcomes to help us prepare a mental and emotional framework for processing the election outcomes. And at the end, I recommend that you write a letter / email to yourself this weekend to be read after the election outcomes are known.

Here are my observations and reminders:

The final outcome of the election will not be known on election night. Gone are the days when staying up until 1:00 a.m. on Election Night would reveal “the winner.” Unless it is clear on Tuesday night that Kamala Harris will win several “sunbelt” states, it will be several days before the network prediction desks will be confident in predicting the presidential race.

There will likely be a “red mirage” on Election Night.  As in 2016, 2018, and 2020, the election night counts will make it appear that Republicans are doing better than the final votes will show. Why? Some states require that same-day, in-person votes be counted first, which will exclude early voting and mail ballots—which tend to favor Democrats. See, e.g., New York Magazine, We May See Another ‘Red Mirage’ on Election Night 2024.  So, do not panic! And remember, most of Steve Kornacki’s schtick is telling us what we don’t know (yet), which is not very helpful. But it makes for dramatic television.                                                                                                                                            On election night, Trump will use the “red mirage” phenomenon to claim that he won and that the vote count should stop. He did so in 2016 and 2020 and will do so again in 2024. Don’t overreact.

Don’t reduce the election to a binary outcome. The question of “who won” is not binary. A mistake we made in 2016 was seeing the election as a unitary and binary choice—everything depended on the presidential election. That feeling is understandable, but we now know that controlling one or both chambers of Congress has widespread implications for a successful Harris first term. And if Harris loses, controlling one or both chambers of Congress will be an important firewall against abuses of power by Trump. Moreover, control of statehouses, breaking up Republican trifectas at the state level, and amending state constitutions to include protections for reproductive rights are all important.

Let the process play out. Try not to overreact to GOP lawsuits or delays in certifications. The last day for certifying the electors for each state is December 11, 2024 (the day on which each state’s executive issues “certificates of ascertainment”). That delay is intended to allow election challenges to play out in the courts. The Electoral Count Reform Act provides for expedited review by federal courts of appeal and the Supreme Court. The slates of electors meet in their respective states on December 17, 2024. The new House is sworn in, en masse by the Clerk, on January 3, 2025 at Noon. Mike Johnson—the outgoing Speaker—does not swear in the newly elected House members and cannot refuse to seat the newly elected members of Congress. Kamala Harris, the sitting vice president until January 20, 2025, presides over the Joint Session of Congress on January 6, 2025 at which time the electoral ballots are counted.

Keep predictions of GOP interference in perspective. Many people not involved in election litigation are trying to scare voters about possible GOP interference. Use Marc Elias at Democracy Docket as your guide star for accurate information. Recognize that the Electoral Reform Count Act has blocked many of the strategies that Republicans attempted to use on January 6, 2021. (More on that in another newsletter.)

Do not despair over the fact that the race is close. I frequently hear readers say, “How can this race even be close?” It is not. Kamala Harris will win the popular vote by somewhere between 5 million and 15 million votes. That is a lot. But in our antiquated electoral college system, that substantial margin of popular vote victory translates into a very narrow electoral college victory. We will need to address the electoral college one day, but for now recognize that the popular vote victories by Democrats will only grow in the coming years. Republicans understand that their days as a party are numbered—which is why they are so willing to interfere with the Constitution in order to win.  

The election isn’t over on November 5. Many states allow periods after election day to “cure” deficient ballots. If you can, volunteer to help cure ballots. Curing efforts helped Jon Ossof and Raphael Warnock win their Senate seats for Georgia.

Don’t assume “the end of democracy” if we don’t win every race. Many people resort to hyperbole to describe the effect on democracy if Trump wins or if Democrats don’t take control of Congress. The use of such language is understandable and reasonable as a way to raise alarm, but should not be taken literally. The only way that democracy will end is if we give up on it. I am not going to give up. And neither are you—no matter how anxious you feel in the moment.

Write a letter to your future self. In a moment of calm before election day, write a letter to yourself. Recognize and thank yourself for your contributions to the victories that we will win. Vow never to go back or quit—even if we win a trifecta. Recognize that your efforts are a gift to the next generation that will bear fruit you may not see—and accept that your reward for defending democracy is that you get to do it all over again next year. Vow to be gracious in victory or defeat and to be supportive of those around you. Promise to be a leader and an example for others. Most of all, maintain perspective. We are standing on the shoulders of Americans who brought us to this moment by overcoming challenges that were more daunting than those we face today. They abided; we must, too.

Opportunities for Reader engagement

Thanks to all readers who supported the fundraiser for Colin Allred and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Readers of this newsletter raised over $103,000 for Colin and Debbie in their races to defeat Ted Cruz and Rick Scott. Several readers have graciously asked to contribute or volunteer after the fundraiser. If that includes you, here are the links:

• Joint contribution to Colin Allred and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (for contributions less than $100, just use the “other box.”

• Volunteer links for Florida and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, DebbieForFlorida.

• Volunteer link for Texas and Colin Allred, ColinForTexas

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Join Focus for Democracy for its final opportunity to learn about “get out the vote” opportunities

Please join Focus for Democracy for one last opportunity to impact the election. Learn about final strategic opportunities, including a brand-new evidence-based program that will help turn out the vote at over 8,000 swing state polling locations.

Sunday, October 13th
5:00pm PT / 8:00pm ET
Registration link: https://bit.ly/F4D13Oct

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HELP WANTED! And it’s easy to help! EVERY POSTCARD COULD BE A VOTE!

Hey everyone, PostcardsToVoters.org needs help so we can get through big lists for Congressional candidates Laura Gillen for NY, Will Rollins for CA, Rep. Chris Deluzio for PA, and for Senator Sherrod Brown for Ohio. The campaigns supplied the addresses and “Required Message” points, so they are great lists.  Two Michigan candidates should be launched in the next couple of days, too.  The more help, the more votes!  To join PTV, email postcards@TonyTheDemocrat.org  If you already joined, PTV has a brand new easy-to-use webpage to get addresses and script 24-7. Go to Abby.postcardstovoters.org to get started! Thank you!

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Concluding Thoughts

Our democracy will endure and flourish because in its time of need, millions of Americans became part of a massive grassroots movement. Our ultimate victory will not be achieved by a single election but by our constancy and dedication. We aren’t going back—and we are in this noble undertaking together. I am proud to be by your side.

Talk to you tomorrow!

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Daily Dose of Perspective

Below is an image of the Jellyfish Nebula. My astronomy app told me the nebula was too dim and not worth imaging without a special filter (which I do not own). I tried, nonetheless. Glad I did!

The Jellyfish Nebula is a supernova remnant (i.e., the remains of an exploding star). The progenitor star exploded between 3,000 and 30,000 years ago. The nebula is 5,000 light-years from Earth and is 70 light-years in diameter.