I hate having to disagree with you, and I hate even more that I have to agree with Chris Cillizza's analysis of the vote, but unfortunately math is a yes/no option. When it adds up, the answer is yes.
We are all doing this "he's not as strong as they say" dance without looking at an important piece of data. That is, the question of who th…
I hate having to disagree with you, and I hate even more that I have to agree with Chris Cillizza's analysis of the vote, but unfortunately math is a yes/no option. When it adds up, the answer is yes.
We are all doing this "he's not as strong as they say" dance without looking at an important piece of data. That is, the question of who the DeSantis and Haley voters - and the Vivek voters - would vote for if the particular candidate wasn't running.
The answers were: 75% of the DeSantis voters would vote for Trump if DeSantis wasn't running. 40% of the Haley voters would also vote for Trump were she not there. 100% of the Vivek voters wuld vote for Trump.
So, make the race Trump and DeSantis with Haley out, and Trump's total goes up to around 60-62%. Make it Trump-Haley with DeSantis out, Trump's total is around 72-74%. In both cases, those are what are called "solid incumbent wins numbers." In th GOP primary, Trump is effectively the "incumbent."
There are no "magic beans" that will defeat him, and telling ourselves "he can't win" is the same "winning" strategy Democrats employed in 2016. It's "whistling past the graveyard."
The only solution is the one you advocate in your posts every night, Robert. Get to work. The only way he is going away is to Defeat Him.
I still think he's a flight risk. He faces 32 felony counts in NY March 25. 90% odds he will lose the immunity appeal. He has a 50/50 chance he will lose the Colorado ballot case. He has at most a 4% chance to win if he is tried in DC.
His civil exposure is huge, and at a minimum he'll have to post a supersedeas bond of 120% of the amount of judgment.
So far nobody has waged a character campaign, which could finish him off politically.
Anecdotally, when a MAGAT is asked how they can vote for a guy who stole from kids with cancer, they choke on their beer.
I WISH he would leave! And never come back! Maybe a conviction in New York would have that effect! Remember that 31% of Iowa voters who showed up said he should not be President if convicted of a felony! And we all know how bad the turnout was in Iowa, so I think it's a good number to keep in mind as we work our tails off to increase turnout among Democrats, especially the YOUNG voters. Those who are paying attention, including my granddaughters, are already working to enlist their friends to register to vote. WE need to get them worried about living in an autocracy and losing the ability to control what happens to their bodies. It works!
Hope you're right. I've heard from young voters who are upset at Biden over the Gaza situation. However, when the choice comes down to Biden vs Trump, I hope the fact that many of them are college educated or in college right now, will help them realize what they need to do.
It may be a group where anti-Trump messaging and a realistic presentation of the likeliest future for Gaza, for all immigrants, and for US freedom to protest if Trump became president would be most effective.
If we factor in his possible/probable dementia, he won't go abroad, and stay there. I don't believe he's so far gone that he would be the old man who leaves the house and ends up in Boise, not knowing how he got there. He's a sad sack of an individual, easily corrupted by the likes of Epshtyn and... the whole cadre of dirty tricksters, fabulists, woman-haters, and worms [meaning no insult to actual worms].
One of the problems here is that for too many R voters, voting for a Democrat is simply not an option. Democrats have been demonized by right wing media. Democrats do need to show up, demonstrate that they do understand where people are at and that they will work to deliver what's needed. At least some of Haley's voters would vote for Biden. It may make a difference in the general election.
I get your premise but I don’t buy your numbers about who voters for Haley or DeSantis would vote for if it were Trump and Biden. I think there is another category which is Republicans who can’t vote for Trump or Biden and stay home. That is a big unknown
I hate having to disagree with you, and I hate even more that I have to agree with Chris Cillizza's analysis of the vote, but unfortunately math is a yes/no option. When it adds up, the answer is yes.
We are all doing this "he's not as strong as they say" dance without looking at an important piece of data. That is, the question of who the DeSantis and Haley voters - and the Vivek voters - would vote for if the particular candidate wasn't running.
The answers were: 75% of the DeSantis voters would vote for Trump if DeSantis wasn't running. 40% of the Haley voters would also vote for Trump were she not there. 100% of the Vivek voters wuld vote for Trump.
So, make the race Trump and DeSantis with Haley out, and Trump's total goes up to around 60-62%. Make it Trump-Haley with DeSantis out, Trump's total is around 72-74%. In both cases, those are what are called "solid incumbent wins numbers." In th GOP primary, Trump is effectively the "incumbent."
There are no "magic beans" that will defeat him, and telling ourselves "he can't win" is the same "winning" strategy Democrats employed in 2016. It's "whistling past the graveyard."
The only solution is the one you advocate in your posts every night, Robert. Get to work. The only way he is going away is to Defeat Him.
I still think he's a flight risk. He faces 32 felony counts in NY March 25. 90% odds he will lose the immunity appeal. He has a 50/50 chance he will lose the Colorado ballot case. He has at most a 4% chance to win if he is tried in DC.
His civil exposure is huge, and at a minimum he'll have to post a supersedeas bond of 120% of the amount of judgment.
So far nobody has waged a character campaign, which could finish him off politically.
Anecdotally, when a MAGAT is asked how they can vote for a guy who stole from kids with cancer, they choke on their beer.
What the current Lincoln Project ad.
Most voters vote for the tallest candidate and/or the one that appears to be the most macho. That's a fact.
That ad is good for people like us, but not for the "lumpen" who crave "strength" over reason.
Commercial: Don't play it no more No, no, no, no, no, no, no!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRBfDyQ94Jo
I WISH he would leave! And never come back! Maybe a conviction in New York would have that effect! Remember that 31% of Iowa voters who showed up said he should not be President if convicted of a felony! And we all know how bad the turnout was in Iowa, so I think it's a good number to keep in mind as we work our tails off to increase turnout among Democrats, especially the YOUNG voters. Those who are paying attention, including my granddaughters, are already working to enlist their friends to register to vote. WE need to get them worried about living in an autocracy and losing the ability to control what happens to their bodies. It works!
i
1. Psychologically, anticipation of failure is worse than jail.
2. Gen Z trend 70% Democratic.
Hope you're right. I've heard from young voters who are upset at Biden over the Gaza situation. However, when the choice comes down to Biden vs Trump, I hope the fact that many of them are college educated or in college right now, will help them realize what they need to do.
It may be a group where anti-Trump messaging and a realistic presentation of the likeliest future for Gaza, for all immigrants, and for US freedom to protest if Trump became president would be most effective.
Saudi Arabia does not have an extradition treaty with the US. And Jared does have some connections there, eh?
UAE. Saudi is culturally too strict. His major source of income is from Oman.
Hey, he’s got options!
Let him fly away to some gilded sandpit and never hear his name again.
He's too narcissistic for that, plus the secret service
If we factor in his possible/probable dementia, he won't go abroad, and stay there. I don't believe he's so far gone that he would be the old man who leaves the house and ends up in Boise, not knowing how he got there. He's a sad sack of an individual, easily corrupted by the likes of Epshtyn and... the whole cadre of dirty tricksters, fabulists, woman-haters, and worms [meaning no insult to actual worms].
One of the problems here is that for too many R voters, voting for a Democrat is simply not an option. Democrats have been demonized by right wing media. Democrats do need to show up, demonstrate that they do understand where people are at and that they will work to deliver what's needed. At least some of Haley's voters would vote for Biden. It may make a difference in the general election.
I get your premise but I don’t buy your numbers about who voters for Haley or DeSantis would vote for if it were Trump and Biden. I think there is another category which is Republicans who can’t vote for Trump or Biden and stay home. That is a big unknown
And defeat him BIGLEY!!! Good points TCinLA!