A watershed moment for the truth.

February 16, 2024

On a day bristling with important news, the criminal indictment of the “star” witness against President Biden and Hunter Biden in the impeachment inquiry was a watershed moment for the truth. Per the indictment, the GOP’s primary source of allegations of corruption against President Biden lied to FBI agents, concocting a fiction for MAGA media outlets and politicians eager to spread slanderous statements.

The revelation that the “impeachment inquiry” against Biden was built on a house of lies comes hard on the heels of an admission from one of the primary proponents of the 2020 election fraud conspiracy theory that it has no evidence to support its allegations of widespread fraud!

Together, the false stories of “Biden’s corruption” and “election fraud” were major components of the GOP playbook in the 2024 presidential election. Those narratives have now collapsed in a spectacular implosion. That collapse is good for President Biden politically—but the immediate political ramification is not the most important point.

The major takeaway is this: The Republican party is built on lies and sustains itself through lies. They know it. We know it. The media knows it. But now, we have proof that the bad-faith headlines, breathless “whataboutism,” and lazy “both-siderism” of the media are part of a disinformation campaign that must stop.

These twin developments are a watershed moment for the truth.

Let’s take a look.

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DOJ indicts FBI informant who was the primary source for allegations of corruption against Joe Biden.

The House “impeachment” inquiry has been a conspiracy theory in search of evidence from the start. House Oversight Chair James Comer took testimony from disgruntled IRS agents with no personal knowledge (but plenty of opinions) and from Hunter Biden’s business partner, who said Joe Biden never participated in his son’s business dealings.

Desperate for proof, Republicans turned to a confidential source, Alexander Smirnov, who claimed to have personal knowledge of alleged bribery ($5 million) by then former Vice President Biden arising from Hunter Biden’s involvement in a Ukrainian energy company (“Burisma”).

On Thursday, a grand jury in the Central District of California issued an indictment against Smirnov for lying to the FBI. The indictment is here: US v. Smirnov | Indictment No. 2:24-CR-00091-ODW. For a summary of the indictment and related details, see NYTimes, Ex-F.B.I. Informant Is Charged With Lying Over Bidens’ Role in Ukraine Business.

Per the Times,

The longtime informant, Alexander Smirnov, 43, is accused of falsely telling the F.B.I. that Hunter Biden, then a paid board member of the energy giant Burisma, demanded the money to protect the company from an investigation by the country’s prosecutor general at the time.

Importantly, the indictment alleges a political motivation for Smirnov to lie about Biden:

Mr. Smirnov’s motivation for lying, prosecutors wrote, appears to have been political. During the 2020 campaign, he sent his F.B.I. handler “a series of messages expressing bias” against Joseph R. Biden Jr., including texts, replete with typos and misspellings, boasting that he had information that would put him in jail.

Smirnov’s allegations were demonstrably false, as explained by the Times:

In 2015 or 2016, Hunter Biden promised to protect the company “through his dad, from all kinds of problems,” Mr. Smirnov falsely claimed to his bureau handler in 2020, according to Mr. Weiss, who has charged the president’s son twice over the past year on tax and gun charges.

This claim was easily disproved, prosecutors said: Mr. Smirnov was only in contact with Burisma executives in 2017, after Mr. Biden left office — when he “had no ability to influence U.S. policy.”

Mr. Smirnov told F.B.I. investigators that he had seen footage of Hunter Biden entering a hotel in Kyiv, Ukraine, that was “wired” by the Russians, suggesting that Russia may have recorded phone calls made by Mr. Biden from the hotel, according to the indictment.

But Mr. Biden had never been to Ukraine, let alone that hotel, prosecutors wrote.

Importantly, the indictment was obtained by special counsel David C. Weiss, who was appointed by Merrick Garland to investigate Hunter Biden. Weiss—who was first appointed as a US Attorney by Donald Trump—has obtained two indictments against Hunter Biden for gun possession and tax evasion charges.

The fact that Smirnov was indicted by the special counsel appointed to investigate Hunter Biden rebuts any notion that the indictment is politically motivated.

Smirnov’s false statements provided the only substantive allegations in the sham “impeachment inquiry” in the House and received massive coverage by an eager news media (especially on Fox News). Those news organizations should retract or correct their previous reporting. It is not enough to report on the indictment of Smirnov.

The most important point is that the GOP’s narrative of a “Biden crime family” is a fiction based on perjured statements provided to the FBI! Tell a friend!

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Group alleging 2020 election fraud admits that it has no evidence.

The 2020 election fraud conspiracy was promoted by Dinesh D’Souza’s and an organization called “True the Vote.” The alleged voter fraud scheme “uncovered” by True the Vote was the subject of a viral “documentary” entitled “2000 Mules.” As explained by HuffPo,

 “2000 Mules,” claimed that ballot “mules” worked with a network of left-wing organizations to steal the election for Joe Biden. The film and its claims made a huge splash, and Donald Trump praised True the Vote for supposedly exposing “great election fraud.”

See HuffPo, ‘True The Vote’ Tells Judge It Doesn’t Have Evidence For ‘Ballot Mules’ Conspiracy Theory

True the Vote went so far as to file a complaint with the Georgia Secretary of State, who opened an investigation. After two years of litigation and multiple subpoenas demanding evidence of True the Vote’s claims, the right-wing organization admitted, “We got nothing.” See Associated Press, Conservative group tells judge it has no evidence to back its claims of Georgia ballot stuffing.

Per AP,

A judge ordered True the Vote to turn over names and contact information for anyone who had provided information, as well as any recordings, transcripts, witness statements or other documents supporting its allegations.

The group came up empty-handed . . . .

[The] conservative group has told [the] judge that it doesn’t have evidence to support its claims of illegal ballot stuffing during the 2020 general election and a runoff two months later.

True the Vote’s allegations were the basis for the claims in “2000 Mules,” a documentary that made $1.5 million in theatrical release and is still widely available. (Sadly, Amazon offers the audiobook, Kindle, and hardcover versions of the book based on the “documentary”).

The most important point is that the GOP’s narrative of  “massive voter fraud” in the 2020 election is a fiction made up of whole cloth—as admitted by the chief promoters of that conspiracy theory! Tell a friend!

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NY state court judge sets jury selection in Trump criminal trial for March 25, 2024.

As Trump bobs and weaves to delay trial in federal court on election interference and retention of defense secrets, Justice Juan M. Merchan scheduled jury selection for March 25, 2024, in Trump's criminal trial for omitting to list “hush money” payments to a porn star in his Federal Election Commission filings for the 2016 presidential election.

See NYTimes, Judge Sets a March 25 Trial for Trump’s Criminal Hush-Money Case. (Accessible to all.)

While it is impossible to rule out further delaying tactics by Trump in the hush money case, the high likelihood is that Trump will be the first president to sit as a criminal defendant. It is fitting that the first case to be tried relates to his first election-related lie—a lie that deprived the American people of crucial knowledge regarding the character of the candidate.

Trump's defense is that the hush money payment was not intended to conceal the affair from the American people, but to conceal the affair from his wife (Melania), who was then at home with their infant son, Barron.

Trump appeared to admit the affair in a Truth Social post in 2023, writing, “With respect to the ‘Stormy’ nonsense, it is VERY OLD & happened a long time ago, long past the very publicly known & accepted deadline of the Statute of Limitations.”

In an oddly evocative portrait of a weary public and deflated Trump, the NYTimes described the scene in Justice Merchan’s courtroom as follows:

Justice Merchan’s decision will reorient the public perception of Mr. Trump’s convoluted legal conundrum, drawing the nation’s bleary eyes to Manhattan. . . . Never before has a former president wrestled with even one criminal indictment.

Mr. Trump attended the Lower Manhattan hearing on Thursday, and was more subdued than usual, sitting quietly with his arms at his sides as the judge scheduled the trial. As the hearing went on, he stared blankly ahead, at times looking toward the ceiling, his red tie askew.

The NYTimes is right about the trial—it will shift the public conversation about Trump to one of the most unsavory aspects of his personal character. That won’t be good for Trump.

While we can’t rely on Trump to defeat himself, we must remember that Trump faces unique challenges that no other candidate has ever faced. We can’t rest or relent, but let’s not lose perspective about the relative challenges facing the respective nominees.

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Hearing on motion to disqualify Fani Willis from RICO prosecution of Trump.

The hearing before Judge Scott McAfee in Fulton County, Georgia to disqualify Fani Willis started on Thursday. It will continue on Friday. It was an obscene spectacle—because Judge McAfee allowed questioning that went far beyond the legitimate scope of whether legal grounds existed to disqualify Willis.

You can read about it here: WaPo, Fani Willis accuses defense of lying in fiery testimony at Georgia hearing.

My advice: Wait for all the evidence to be introduced—especially Fani Willis’s rebuttal. Commentators are all over the place. Chuck Rosenberg said Willis should resign; Mark Joseph Stern said Willis “torched her case” against Trump.

I am going to rely on Joyce Vance. See Joyce Vance on Twitter, "A lot of spectacle, but not very much substance.”

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Trump files reply in Supreme Court regarding request for stay.

Trump filed his reply brief in the Supreme Court in support of his application for a stay of the DC Circuit’s ruling rejecting his presidential immunity defense.

Trump's brief is here: Trump's Reply in Support of Application for Stay.

As noted by Professor Laurence Tribe, Trump's brief contains a surprising admission regarding the real reason he wants a delay—to prevent political fallout from a conviction! Trump writes,

As before, there is no mystery about the Special Counsel’s motivation. Commentators across the political spectrum point to the obvious—the Special Counsel seeks to bring President Trump to trial and to secure a conviction before the November election in which President Trump is the leading candidate against President Biden.

The Supreme Court could rule at any time on the application for the stay. While the decision will not change the outcome of the election, it will say a LOT about the Supreme Court.

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Feedback regarding audio version of the newsletter.

I will continue to record the audio version of each newsletter in my own voice each night. However, I am considering the possibility of offering two additional recorded versions generated by AI.

Why?

First, some readers say that I read too slowly or that my voice is too soft. The AI-generated version might address those concerns.

Second, I have received several requests for a Spanish audio version of the newsletter.

Thanks to the efforts of The Democracy Labs, I have two examples of AI-generated audio versions of the newsletter. If you listen to the newsletter on a regular basis, can you please take a moment to click on this link to sample either the English or Spanish-language AI-generated version of the newsletter and then answer the survey below? Thanks!!

English language audio version of Today’s Edition Newsletter 

Spanish language audio version of Today’s Edition Newsletter

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Opportunity for reader engagement.

I received this note from Jessica Craven at Chop Wood Carry Water about a webinar focused on how to persuade moderate white women in swing states:

Galvanize uses research and neuroscience to find the best ways to engage with moderate white women in the swing states to break through the toxic polarization that is threatening our democracy. Activists and candidate campaigns often use a fact-based approach to try to persuade swing and low information voters. However, research shows that the best way to reach these voters is to communicate with them based on their values. This means first learning about their values and then developing the most effective way to reach them. Galvanize develops the pithy messages (digital advertising, memes, GIFs, and postcards) that speak to these women based on their values and then does careful testing for the effectiveness of their messaging. The results are impressive!

Please sign up for the February 20 webinar (11:00 am PT/2:00 pm ET)  https://www.galvanizeaction.org/events/ to hear Jackie Payne the Galvanize Executive Director and Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners talk about primaries, polls and the path to progress. If you can’t listen to it live, please register anyway to get an email with the webinar recording. 

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Concluding Thoughts.

The significant and surprising developments on Thursday remind us that the length of time between today and Election Day (11/5/24) is approximately equal to infinity. No one woke up on Thursday believing that the Biden impeachment inquiry would collapse and that Trump would have a criminal trial scheduled for March 25.

While both sides will experience surprises, Trump's litigation calendar suggests that he is more likely to be on the receiving end of unhappy developments. For example, rumor has it that Judge Engoron will release his ruling in the NY civil fraud trial in the next few days.

Republicans are doing their best to muck up the waters. They will take testimony from special counsel Robert Hur and flail about in the impeachment trial of Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. In the meantime, Trump will be railing about the civil fraud verdict and trying to explain away the ugly facts surrounding his brief encounter with Stormy Daniels. And with any luck, Judge Chutkan will be able to schedule the start of the federal election interference trial for mid-summer. Trump's criminal trial dance card may be full before the election.

I am not suggesting we count on negative developments for Trump to make ourselves feel better. I am saying that trying to “game out” the developments in an election more than eight months in the future is a fool’s errand.

Rather than obsessing about developments that will be overtaken by events within hours, let’s focus on what we can control—our efforts to register new voters, increase turnout, and support candidates up and down the ballot. Such proactive steps will not only help Democratic candidates win in 2024, but they will also help reduce anxiety and nervous energy. A win-win!

Talk to you tomorrow!