Why Warnock matters.

November 14, 2022

          Over the weekend, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto won re-election as US Senator for Nevada. Her victory secured Democratic “control” of the Senate with a 50-50 margin favoring Democrats because of Kamala Harris’s tie-breaking vote. But if Democrats re-elect Senator Raphael Warnock, Democrats will have a “true” majority in the Senate—a fact that will have far-reaching consequences in the next session of Congress. The re-election of Raphael Warnock matters—a lot. Even though Warnock’s election is cause for celebration, we must not relent!

          But before talking about our continuing efforts to re-elect Warnock and cure ballots in other races, it is appropriate to reflect on the historic nature of the Democratic victory in the midterms. It was a historic victory by almost any measure:

•           At the state level, Democrats did not lose control of a single legislature in 2022 that they previously held, a feat not accomplished by the president’s party during a midterm election since 1934. See WaPo. Indeed, Democrats expanded their control of Michigan’s House and Senate, Minnesota’s Senate, and (likely) Pennsylvania’s House.

•           Also at the state level, Democratic gains at the gubernatorial level will be the best since at least 1986—and could get better if Katie Hobbs wins in Arizona!

•          In the US Senate, not losing a seat—much less picking up seats—is a once-in-a-quarter-century event. On average, the party in power loses seven seats in the US Senate and has gained seats on only four occasions since 1934.  

•           In the House, the party in power usually loses an average of 26 seats. Although results in the House remain uncertain, it appears that Republicans may gain only a handful of seats—if that! Although Democrats have a narrow path to retaining control of the House, it is an uphill fight. We should be patient and keep our expectations in check.

         The combination of the above factors fairly describes success not seen since FDR’s first midterm in 1934. And when we add the defeat of election denying MAGA extremists in six swing states, the 2022 midterm results were arguably the most consequential in a century.

          Democrats should be immensely proud and gratified of the results they achieved. You should be proud of your contribution to that success. Let’s all take a moment to revel in the satisfaction of a job truly well done!

          [Momentary pause.]

          Okay, now back to work! We have the opportunity to make an exceptional result even better by re-electing Raphael Warnock. Which brings us to the question, “If Democrats already “control” the Senate, is “one more vote” really that important?” Yes!!

          The most significant difference with a 51-vote majority is that Democrats will not be forced to enter into a “power-sharing” agreement with Mitch McConnell (or whoever is elected as the Republican minority leader). Under the current agreement, each Senate committee has an equal number of Democrats and Republicans. As such, Democrats do not have the ability to move bills out of committee without Republican cooperation (and must instead use a “discharge petition). And Democrats cannot issue subpoenas from committees without Republican cooperation.

          In short, with a slim 50-50 margin of control for Democrats, Republicans can slow progress in the Senate to a crawl. One additional vote substantially lessens the ability of Republicans to act as legislative terrorists. See Vox, Georgia is still important, even after Democrats retained control of the Senate.

          And an additional vote makes it easier to govern the Democratic majority. With a true majority, Democrats can continue to conduct business in the absence of two members of the Democratic caucus. Finally, (looking at you Manchin and Sinema), no single Democratic Senator can hijack a bill or stall a nomination.

          But the most important factor of a 51-vote majority is that Democrats can confirm judicial nominations with a simple majority vote. There are currently 89 vacancies on the federal bench. See US Courts, Current Judicial Vacancies. Those vacancies comprise nearly 10% of all federal judgeships. Filling the 89 federal vacancies in the next two years will be another significant accomplishment of the Biden administration.

          Here’s the point: Re-electing Senator Raphael Warnock will significantly improve the ability of Biden and Senate Democrats to deliver on their promises to the American people. We should leave nothing undone. Do not relent! We have the GOP on the run, and we must press our advantage to the fullest extent possible!

Reflecting on the lessons of the midterms.

          Although the midterms are not over, there is no shortage of analysis in the media about the results. For the most part, the media is focusing on the negative side of the story—“Whose fault is it that Republicans failed?” While that is an interesting drama for Democrats to watch unfold, they should be more interested in what they did right—and what they could have done better.

          My advice is not to jump to conclusions. Wait for respected journalists and experts to analyze the data and provide their reasoned judgments. Even then, we should view those judgments with wariness. The negative narrative sells more soap than the positive narrative, so “bad news” will naturally be overweighted in most analyses.

          So, before we are deluged with articles like, “Five Reasons Democrats Should Worry About the Midterm Results,” let’s take a look at positive developments emerging from the midterms. (And a note of caution—I am not a pollster and am repeating what the media is reporting based on preliminary results. So, the analysis below is provisional.)

          Tonight, I will look at two important trends:

 First, Democrats made major inroads into “the youth vote.”

          Turnout among voters under 30 was the highest in three decades. See The Hill, Researchers say 2022 election had second highest young voter turnout in last 30 years. Per The Hill,

Nearly 30 percent of young adults between the ages 18 and 29 are estimated to have voted in the 2022 midterm elections, marking the second-highest youth turnout in three decades. Figures also indicate youth turnout was even higher in some battleground states where exit poll data are available.

          And when more young people vote, Democratic candidates are the beneficiaries. Per The Hill,

          In a closely watched Pennsylvania race, 70 percent of voters between the ages 18 and 29 cast their ballots for Democratic Senate nominee John Fetterman, while Fetterman won support from 55 percent of those between the ages 30 and 44. 

          Yes, you read that right: 70% of young voters in Pennsylvania cast their ballots for John Fetterman. In the next two years, Democrats must do everything they can to register and motivate young voters to turn out in 2024.

          Although there is huge room for improvement in young voter turnout, nothing is a better indicator of the future prospects of a party than its appeal to young voters. Let’s keep up the good work!

Second, women turned out in force to support Democrats.

          Strong support for Democrats among young women drove victories in the House. See The Hill, Young women broke hard for Democrats in the midterms. Per The Hill,

Exit polls show 72 percent of women ages 18-29 voted for Democrats in House races nationwide. In a pivotal Pennsylvania Senate race, 77 percent of young women voted for embattled Democrat John Fetterman, helping to secure his victory. 

          While women voted for Democrats by a 54% margin, that overall number was driven by young, Black, Hispanic, and Asian women. The Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs clearly played a role in motivating young women. Per one analyst firm,

Voters who said the Supreme Court overturning Roe was the single most important factor in their vote went more than 2:1 for Democratic candidates.

The Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade disproportionately motivated democratic voters, first-time and younger voters, and women under age 50, both nationally and in key States

Among women voters under age 50, at least half say the decision played a major role in their decision to vote in the three states that passed ballot measures to amend the state’s constitution

          The issue of reproductive liberty is not going away. If Republicans win a majority in the House, they will introduce legislation to criminalize abortion after 15 weeks. The two leading contenders for the GOP nomination in 2024 will push extreme anti-choice positions to attract the most extreme members of the GOP—a fact that will continue to motivate women and younger voters in the next two years.

          For those of you interested in a deep dive into 2022 results, I highly recommend an exceptional analysis by Mark S. Bergman, which can be found here: An Analysis of the US Midterms. If you want to be added to Mark’s email list after reading his report, you can contact Mark at usvision2018@gmail.com.

Concluding Thoughts.

          There is much to be thankful for after the 2022 midterms. Jennifer Rubin captures many of those reasons in her WaPo essay, 7 reasons to be optimistic about the future of democracy. If you want to boost your already good mood, Rubin’s op-ed will do it. She notes two items that are not receiving much attention elsewhere: The role of the courts in managing election disputes and an increase in early voting to circumvent voter suppression laws. Those are underappreciated ways in which the “rule of law” writ large worked as intended in 2022.

         There is much more to discuss, but it is late, and we will have time in the coming weeks do so. To those of you who are curing ballots and helping to re-elect Raphael Warnock, thank you! Your work is incredibly important to the continued success of the Democratic agenda and to the Biden administration.

          Talk to you tomorrow!