Weekend thoughts.

July 22, 2023

          My wife and I are taking the weekend off to open our seasonal cabin in the Sierras. The opening was long delayed due to road damage from winter storms. The road to our cabin (single lane, 22-mile dead-end road) is in horrendous shape. It is so bad that it is closed to be public. Cabin owners have limited access to visit their cabins to assess damage, clean up, and prepare for the next snows. The winter storms were particularly harsh on our cabin this year: three shutters were torn off the cabin, snow snapped a propane pipe at the tank outlet, a picnic table I built for our 40th anniversary was sheered into pieces, and water is everywhere. But I am not complaining—except about the mosquitos, which are the size of yellow jackets.

          There is much to be positive about heading into the weekend. The fact that Judge Aileen Cannon set a trial date in May 2024 on the trial for unlawful retention of defense secrets is a very good development. Although commentators are already discussing scenarios possible delay and scheduling conflicts with other indictments, my advice is that we not overthink it. Trump is on the defensive. Let’s keep it that way.

          I wrote yesterday about the opportunity for Democrats to convert 52 million new voters who became eligible to vote after the 2016 election. Because those voters are younger, more educated, and more diverse than the voters they replaced in the last eight years, Democrats have an opportunity to materially change the shape of the playing field in 2024. Note that I said “opportunity.” Nothing is guaranteed; we must work hard to convince those 52 million new voters that “things are better with Democrats.”

          Politico published an article was published on Friday that addresses a similar demographic shift that offers opportunities for pickups by Democrats. See Politico, ‘This Is a Really Big Deal’: How College Towns Are Decimating the GOP. The thesis of the article is that the demographic shifts associated with “college towns” create opportunities for Democrats to increase their margin of victory in statewide and national races. Politico writes,

Of those 171 [college towns], 38 have flipped from red to blue since the 2000 presidential election. Just seven flipped the other way, from blue to red, and typically by smaller margins. Democrats grew their percentage point margins in 117 counties, while 54 counties grew redder. By raw votes, the difference was just as stark: The counties that grew bluer increased their margins by an average of 16,253, while Republicans increased their margins by an average of 4,063.

          Democrats cannot assume that college students and new graduates will automatically vote Democratic. But the educational attainment, age, and diversity of college students create opportunities for Democrats that elude Republicans intent on turning Today’s Edition: Weekend thoughts.

          My wife and I are taking the weekend off to open our seasonal cabin in the Sierras. The opening was long delayed due to road damage from winter storms. The road to our cabin (single lane, 22-mile dead-end road) is in horrendous shape. It is so bad that it is closed to be public. Cabin owners have limited access to visit their cabins to assess damage, clean up, and prepare for the next snows. The winter snows were particularly harsh on our cabin this year: three shutters torn off the cabin, snow snapped a propane pipe at the tank outlet, a hand-crafted picnic table I built for our 40th anniverary was sheered into pieces, and water is everywhere. But I am not complaining—except about the mosquitos, which are the size of yellowjackets.

          There is much to be positive about heading into the weekend. The fact that Judge Aileen Cannon set a trial date in May 2024 on the trial for unlawful retention of defense secrets is a very good development. Although commentators are already discussing scenarios of possible delay and scheduling conflicts with other indictments, my advice is that we not overthink it. Trump is on the defensive. Let’s keep it that way.

          I wrote yesterday about the opportunity for Democrats to convert 52 million new voters who became eligible to vote after the 2016 election. Because those voters are younger, more educated, and more diverse than the voters they replaced in the last eight years, Democrats have an opportunity to materially change the shape of the playing field in 2024. Note that I said “opportunity.” Nothing is guaranteed; we must work hard to convince those 52 million new voters that “things are better with Democrats.”

          Politico published an article was published on Friday that addresses a similar demographic shift that offers opportunities for pickups by Democrats. See Politico, ‘This Is a Really Big Deal’: How College Towns Are Decimating the GOP. The thesis of the article is that the demographic shifts associated with “college towns” create opportunities for Democrats to increase their margin of victory in statewide and national races. Politico writes,

Of those 171 [college towns], 38 have flipped from red to blue since the 2000 presidential election. Just seven flipped the other way, from blue to red, and typically by smaller margins. Democrats grew their percentage point margins in 117 counties, while 54 counties grew redder. By raw votes, the difference was just as stark: The counties that grew bluer increased their margins by an average of 16,253, while Republicans increased their margins by an average of 4,063.

          Democrats cannot assume that college students and new graduates will automatically vote Democratic. But the educational attainment, age, and diversity of college students create opportunities for Democrats that elude Republicans intent on turning back the cultural clock to the 1950s. Read the Politico article. It may give you ideas and inspiration in your work to help Democrats win in 2024.

          Share your thoughts in the Comment section. As always, please be respectful and “like” worthy comments to promote them to the top for the attention of other readers.

          Talk to you on Monday!