1. We have worn out the excuse for Trump that “ no President has ever been” (fill in the blank). There is a reason that matters have reached the status of “unprecedented”. It is due exclusively to the behavior of an individual who has ignored the boundaries of dignity, propriety, decorum and the law. It is finally catching up to him as the 34 count indictment forebodes. That is the precedent to salute.
2. The decision by the jury was not the darkest day in American history. It was one of our brightest. The rule of law prevailed. Without it, we would be in chaos. As liberals, as Democrats, as progressives…we need to stop noodling about the consequences so much that our victories are turned into nothing burgers at the least and defeats at the worst. Hammer this victory home. The man is a convicted felon. No issue about that.
3 .Trump is not a victim of the system. He’d already be in the graybar hotel if he was an average citizen. He has benefited both from his status as being born privileged and the deference he has received as a former POTUS. Hopefully we will be the beneficiaries of an assessment of that event that matches up with the behavior that took place.
4. Sentencing on July 11th should be meted out in accordance with the total scope of Judge Merchan’s purview. He has proven to be a most capable and unbiased jurist. I am hopeful he will not be influenced by the never ending stream of “what if scenarios” that forecast a national uprising if Trump is jailed. The likelihood of such scenarios on a mass scale is minimal. If law enforcement is not prepared for swift action already, they should get with it.
5. Don’t be discouraged by reports of voters who claim they are un-swayed by this conviction. By and large they are low information voters in the first place and/or are unwilling to concede how they have been played as patsies by the consummate conman. The voting booth is private and we will see where our nation stands then. Examining the facts on the ground the result should be a resounding rejection of Trump and the GOP’s assault on our freedoms. The women’s vote should be enough to send them all packing. Add to that like minded men and the rout is on.
The stuff that impresses us does not mean Jack to them. If you want to sell them, need to address them viscerally.
The women's' vote. I live in Florida where abortion is on the ballot. I volunteer and donate to FT6. Using data mining, they identify unregistered folk who trend Democratic. Register Democrats and save the world.
That said, there are Trump groups we can neutralize, and maybe flip. I work on Amish. Veterans ("not suckers or losers"), and the largest group, who metaphorically slit their own throats to support hatred of the "other."
I have extensive experience re sentences. There will be a presentence report that will include a recommendation. There is usually a lot of suspense. Most of the time Defendants find religion in honor of the occasion. Sometimes experts, like psychologists and psychiatrists are called to allege that the stress of trial caused the defendant to act out. Who knows, by July 11, Trump might have an epiphany, modify his attitude to avoid incarceration, beg for mercy.
Exactly correct, Mr. Solomon. Trump created his cult by scaring his target audience (disgruntled folks who feel abandoned by the economy, by technology, by their more affluent fellow citizens) half to death and then riling their emotions (skillfully--it is one of his talents) to a fever pitch.
Apparently that mix of adrenaline and cortisol is extremely addictive because the most fervent MAGA's seem to be more like druggies who follow their hero around like he's their "dealer" and they're desperate for their adrenaline/cortisol fix of fear and rage.
Appealing to such people with facts and calm reasoning is useless. They need gut punches--they need 'speechifying' using words that appeal to the emotions. They want to hear solutions that apply to THEM. That Trump's "solutions" were largely either totally impractical or totally illegal was moot; they believed he truly cared about them and their issues/grievances.
I have thought for a long time that many hard-core Trump supporters are, in effect, rageaholics. They are in a constant state of anger and outrage that causes an outpouring of adrenaline and cortisol. They became habituated to that, and then hooked on it; they need their fix, and Trump gives it to them.
You're onto something there - it's as if TFG provides them the addictive righteous indignation that similarly fuels the popularity of soap operas in our culture, vs. the PBS documentary style of governance provided by Biden. So, what's it going to be - Erica Kane or Ken Burns in 2024?
And apparently trump on Trooth Social just cried out for the Supreme Court to find some way of stopping the sentencing. And the faithful will be further confused as to how our court system works.
I think many of Trump supporters could be persuaded to abandon him if they were able to learn how his presidency would affect their lives:” lower wages, lower taxes for the rich, not for them, inflation caused by corruption and tariffs, uneven enforcement of the law, alliance with Russia and loss of our democratic allies, and much more. But, it is very difficult to break into their bubble. In many groups criticizing Trump brings excommunication. Yet, there are many people who are uncomfortable supporting a man who owes half a billion dollars for fraud, is an unrepentant sexual predator, and now a felon. If we get them to see one truth, the whole myth falls apart.
Bob, it seems to me we are ignoring the elephant in the room. What will it take to wake up the American people? Putin and friends like Orban and Xi are engaged in what Thom Hartmaan refers to as an 'irregular war'. They were already successful in defeating Hillary Clinton and poisoning the minds of uninformed Americans, but their motives now are much more sinister than that. Hartmann, if he can be believed and I do, has stated that tRump had 16 meetings with Lavrov and associates, where he gave up US assets that resulted in the multiple deaths of US spies. If this is true, tRump committed treason, IMO. The Rosenberg's were executed for far less. tRump has the backing of 50 billionaires, Federalist Society, led by Leonard Leo who gave us SC judges like Roberts, Alito, Kavanaugh, Barrett and Gorsuch. Last but not least, tRump has the republican congress in the palm of his hand. He is a cornered criminal who will stop at nothing, including the destruction of our 250 year old democracy. Why isn't Hartmann's warnings the number one issue that faces America? Winning the next election will not solve this overwhelming problem.The best It may do is sweep it under the rug for a while.
Thank you for pointing us to rvat.org! It’s “Republican Voters Against Trump" and is chock full of video testimonials about how he has lost previously consistent Republican voters. The most frequent thing that got them to 86 45 is January 6.
We are not trying to change the mind of MAGA people. They are not going to be swayed by convictions, proven lies, rapes,or if he shots someone. That’s a given and it is a waste of our energy to debate with them.
The suburban women who were the ones Donald wanted to keep from knowing about him having sex with Stormy when Melania had a baby are the ones we want to remind of this and ask if they can vote for such a vile man.
I’m surprised that this wasn’t clear to you from my comment.
You are dead wrong. Mostly visceral stuff works. Only need to flip a small percentage.
E.G. I am a member of a DNC veterans/Vote Vets group. I published some of the testimonials above. "Not suckers or losers" works. The Vote Vets Memorial Day video went viral and hundreds more are sending in testimonials. https://votevets.org/
I have another mission to the Amish.
I also work with groups who do outreach to SSI recipients, many who are Registered Republican and "slit their own throats." They trust the lawyers, medical providers, social workers, caregivers who contact them.
Here in Florida MAGA women are having epiphanies daily. The 6 week ban affects them, too.
So true. Do not waste your time with any MAGA people. Use your time those who can engage and listen and be sure to listen to them. Have talking points ( I love the one about supporting a candidate who steals from kids with cancer.), state them nicely and positively and if resistance remains strong move on. Do not dismiss or rule out younger people. They’re smarter than they are given credit for.
The sex was secondary.It was control, dominance and disrespect for women.Stormy says it was consensual but also that he was bigger and blocked her way.
Robert relates that "Senator Susan Collins said the verdicts were illegitimate because Alvin Bragg ran for District Attorney on the promise he would indict Trump." On how many issues can Susan Collins hit the wrong notes before the voters of Maine send her home? She played a key role in the staffing of our current disfunctional and partisan Supreme Court, and now she's gone full MAGA. In times gone past, Maine was noteworthy for the independent streak it's elected representatives exhibited: Margaret Chase Smith at the front of the line.
We tried, we tried. I've sent Collins three letters and a postcard telling her she should retire because her judgment on the events of the past 8 years has gone so far off the rails.
She depends on Leonard Leo's support and fund-raising, so she feels that she no longer needs to listen to her constituents. She went all soft and squishy on DeVos, on Kavanaugh and worst of all, on Trump. I am ashamed to think that Collins occupies the same position as the (late) great Margaret Chase Smith.
Collins former colleague, Senator Olympia Snowe, although Republican, wouldn't have fallen into the sticky baited trap of slavish partisanship. Former Senator Snowe was a moderate, thoughtful Republican who was unafraid of going against the party if she thought the GOP was on the wrong track. Snowe was a worthy heir to the mantle of the late Senator Smith. Collins isn't fit to wipe the bottom of Margaret Chase Smith's barn boots.
neither have i had a reply. written to her many times telling her she is an embrassment and a stain on our state. a greedy and dishonest person that has grown vastly wealthy beyond reason while 'serving' her constituents (not)
But hasn't she disappointed so many Mainers with her mealy mouthed quotes about almost any topic - most glaringly during the Supreme Court Justice hearings? She's over-stayed her welcome IMHO.
The first part of today’s post is especially helpful, with your calling BS on the MAGA spin strategy on Trump’s conviction and sharing new findings that he is losing voters bigly because many are now thinking of 45 as 34.
Love the asymmetry argument in Concluding Thoughts! I was thinking yesterday that perhaps a useful strategy would be to say, "While I don't agree with EVERYTHING President Biden stands for, I don't agree with ANYTHING Trump stands for."
I've always maintained that if I agreed with everything a President does, it would mean they weren't doing their job. This is a large, diverse nation and the President represents much more than just my viewpoint. I agree with you on Trump, though. He is the virtual antithesis of everything I believe in.
Suppose he gets the 34 dropped to zero through appeal, in say 3 years, by some bizarre combo of GOP-favored judges.
So what? The verdict may have already lost him the election in '24. Who cares about any whining in 2027 over Innocence, Retribution, Revenge or what have you.
He'll be so long forgotten by '27, (for whatever reason,) that it will no longer matter.
"See! I TOLD you it was ELECTION INTERFERENCE!!"
Yeah? Well election interference got you into office in '16 so we're even.
"So what? The verdict may have already lost him the election in '24"
I wish I could agree with you, but Biden is still trailing in the 6-8 swing states that matter, even after the Manhattan verdict. Out in the sticks nobody cares about hush-money payments.
And for a lot of people (I fear) Biden is too old and hasn't changed the world during his term. He'll struggle hard to win, I reckon, the odds ae stacked against him.
It may be getting “old” but it is everywhere Even amongst Democratic voters who will vote for Biden the “Biden is too old” comment is still heard. But mostly among young people. It cannot be ignored.
Absolutely not. My point is that Biden’s age is a concern for certain demographics. It is not for me or many of my colleagues and friends but if you listen to their children and grandchildren they are concerned. I think this needs to be acknowledged. That’s it.
I’m not ignoring it. It’s just that nobody really knows how old too old is. If you go by physical condition and productivity, Biden is many laps ahead in this horse and jackass race.
People from both parties do not like two "old men" running for president. Unfortunately, for 2024, those will be our choices. Biden has proven himself over and over. We have to keep pressing this message with details and reflection against what 45 now 34 did and is doing.
Quite right Susan. The only poll that counts starts with early voting and ends on Nov. 5. We have to point all our efforts at that and not be distracted or overly dismayed by notional assessments of public opinion based on questionable interaction with an insignificant fraction of the American electorate.
Hi, Ian. To be clear, Biden is trailing among ALL voters. But when you look at LIKELY voters--the traditional metric--Biden is leading in most swing states.
“ Note that G. Elliot Morris who is the new chief at 538 confirmed that they, like us here at Hopium, understand the race to be a toss up right now. Trump does not lead, nor he is favored, and commentators simply must stop saying he is.”
G.Elliot is a shining graduate of the University of Texas's College of Liberal Arts. We are very proud of him, and the work he is doing to defend democracy and reason.
I also completely disagree with you. Biden is not behind in all the swing states and, in fact, even before the verdict, was slightly ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the three most important states when likely voters, as opposed to registered voters, have been polled. In addition, nearly every poll, both before and after the trial, has shown that a guilty verdict would cost Trump's votes. One showed that 49% of independents want Trump to drop out of the race, another that up to 15% of Republicans will no longer vote for him. This is and has been a very close contest, and you’re trying to say, in defiance of the data that we have, that the verdict means nothing and that Biden is losing? Yeah, get out of town with that.
Let’s be clear no pollster knows what the impact of the guilty verdict will mean in a November because the conviction is only a single piece of why someone will vote for or against Trump.
The problem/error with the last 8 months of polling data is not that it's "fake". It's that the demographics of respondents who answered the poll are mostly skewed conservative/MAGA. (some are skewed Liberal). This bias had been especially true with the NYTimes/Sienna poll which significantly overweights Rural respondents. Therefore the poll results are favorable to Trump and are nowhere near the voter demographics of 2020 when Biden beat Trump with 81 million votes to 74 million.
Tomorrow I will send a short analysis of how this impacts the swing states picture creates by the Times poll.
It's interesting that Nate Cohn has started backtracking on what his polling "means". Maybe he actually looked at who his biased poll is helping and he, like so many Democrats has freaked out
Which polls are you reading that indicate Biden is trailing in the swing states? How are those polls constructed, i.e. how is the information obtained? Land lines? How many people still have land lines and what are their ages? If obtained any other way, are those methods random enough to obtain actual representations of opinions? And what about the politics of the agency collecting the information? Remember that lots of Republican-leaning pollsters “flood the zone” to skew the numbers. Most importantly, what is the margin of error?
The polls I’ve read have Biden ahead and ahead outside the margin of error in two of the swing states (Arizona, Wisconsin) and the others are basically tied - Another words, within the margin of error so who knows who is ahead? Doesn’t spin any other way in terms of statistics.
Don’t buy the negative headlines of the MSM. It’s waaayyyy too early to be predicting anything. Remember the Red Wave BS that took over in 2022 in the media - and never materialized.
Biden is the best president in my lifetime (70). Let’s all work to get out the vote and keep it that way!!
“We are seeing a pattern emerge in recent polling that Biden does better, and Trump worse, as you move from adult to registered voter to likely voter. In my post and presentation from Thursday, (do watch and read!) I explained why this dynamic is an encouraging development for Joe Biden and Democrats more broadly. Here’s an excerpt:”
Stephen, I agree with you that nothing in the polling should be considered predictive of November. Still, the consistency of the data we have, both before and after the verdict, is enough to say that having been convicted of 34 felonies is likely more deleterious to Trump’s presidential prospects than it is helpful.
Don't forget, polls are more like fortune-telling than anything else. Stop reading them. (Unless, of course, you've personally had excellent results from fortune-telling.) And please stop talking about Biden's age. Have you noticed, the media has stopped talking about that, after all his vigorous campaigning, stellar fundraising, rigorous traveling, and truly wonderful speeches. TRUMP, now, will turn 78 on June 14. If you want to talk about age, please talk about that. In fact, let's throw Trump a national birthday party. Maybe the numerals "78" in fireworks?
Spot on, Robert Hubbell! "Joe Biden has been a great president; we should be proud to have him as our nominee. Let’s start acting like it!" Your idea about comparing criticisms of Biden to what Trump is proposing (if anything) is a smart one. Compare and contrast, often and with conviction!
True. And as a foreign observer I'd like to add: compare the state of the economy with the rest of the world. In Germany we would love to have the US numbers.
I canvassed in Reno, NV over the weekend and I wanted to share some conversations I had with voters. I spoke with 4 Independent/No party Preference voters and, while they are not yet ready to commit to Biden (although my bet is they ultimately will), they all said they were definitely not voting for a convicted criminal felon - their words, not mine! Boy did that give me hope!
“The MAGA propaganda machine was prepared for the guilty verdicts and had a PR offensive at the ready.”
Robert hit the nail on the head with this quote, and should any of us be surprised? Propaganda is what they have. They don't have facts on their side, so they repeat lies often enough that people come to believe them. Do you know who does have facts, though? President Biden, the Democrats, and the army of grassroots supporters behind them. I’ve been disappointed that so many of us have fallen victim to this propaganda. No, the 34 felony convictions are not a boon to MAGA; they're one more tool in our toolbox in our battle against fascism. This is not the time to despair but rather a time to put this toolbox to work.
Facts do not convince people. Facts do not win elections. Intellectual idealists think they do. They don't. Einstein reputedly said, "if the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." You said it yourself: we need our own persuasive "propaganda." Also known less pejorative as messaging or public relations.
Robert, I am a paid subscriber and I recommend your newsletter to many others. I am also a member of Women Donors Network. A few of us have put together a website, despairisnotanoption.com, designed to increase engagement before November among those who feel hopeless, helpless or exhausted. Our site lists an array of activities, encourages people to choose the one they like, and lists organizations with whom to take action. We also recommend several substacks, including yours. We sent it to Jessica Craven, who featured it, and we are hoping that you would be willing to do the same, perhaps in your Opportunities for Engagement section. The website has been enthusiastically received so far and fits in with your credo to take action and encourage friends and family to do the same. Hoping to hear from you.
Susan thank you for the link. I have just looked at the websites for both. I was particularly impressed with the work of the Women Donors Network. I second your request to Robert and will be forwarding to friends.
IMO our energies and time are better spent engaging in these grassroots efforts than writing letters to Chuck Schumer, Supreme Court Justice Roberts or the 11th circuit making demands or lodging complaints. Those efforts will not move the needle. These will. Again thank you.
I just sent this link to my friend who is heading up the Democratic party in our little town. She's a go-getter and will be able to share with even more voters. Thanks!
I’m not sure how many voters paid attention to the Trump trial but they did pay attention to the guilty verdict. The coordinated media attacks on the verdict probably did not influence the Independent and real Republicans and confirmed their predisposed opinion of Trump. Defending Trump is not a winning campaign strategy and by doing so the risks and pushback is huge. For me the next big event is the debate scheduled in June. Trump is in a no win situation. If he skips the debate it sends the message he is afraid to debate and if he attends he runs the risk of having to defend his guilty verdict. Let’s see what he tries to do.
I mostly agree with this, but he won't just skip it. He will go on and on about how unfair it is, and stacked against him and the liberal media and blah, blah, blah. His voters will buy it, and the NYT, WaPo, and networks will all dutifully take dictation from his campaign. Here's the NYT headline in advance, "Citing biased rules, Trump skips CNN debate, plans biggest rally yet"
I still think "Trump hates dogs" works and is far more effective than "Trump is a convict" with MAGA.
Proof: https://rvat.org/
We have the capacity to sweep. Trump convictions may help, but we need volunteers and donations to register more Democrats to save the world.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
Today’s thoughts:
1. We have worn out the excuse for Trump that “ no President has ever been” (fill in the blank). There is a reason that matters have reached the status of “unprecedented”. It is due exclusively to the behavior of an individual who has ignored the boundaries of dignity, propriety, decorum and the law. It is finally catching up to him as the 34 count indictment forebodes. That is the precedent to salute.
2. The decision by the jury was not the darkest day in American history. It was one of our brightest. The rule of law prevailed. Without it, we would be in chaos. As liberals, as Democrats, as progressives…we need to stop noodling about the consequences so much that our victories are turned into nothing burgers at the least and defeats at the worst. Hammer this victory home. The man is a convicted felon. No issue about that.
3 .Trump is not a victim of the system. He’d already be in the graybar hotel if he was an average citizen. He has benefited both from his status as being born privileged and the deference he has received as a former POTUS. Hopefully we will be the beneficiaries of an assessment of that event that matches up with the behavior that took place.
4. Sentencing on July 11th should be meted out in accordance with the total scope of Judge Merchan’s purview. He has proven to be a most capable and unbiased jurist. I am hopeful he will not be influenced by the never ending stream of “what if scenarios” that forecast a national uprising if Trump is jailed. The likelihood of such scenarios on a mass scale is minimal. If law enforcement is not prepared for swift action already, they should get with it.
5. Don’t be discouraged by reports of voters who claim they are un-swayed by this conviction. By and large they are low information voters in the first place and/or are unwilling to concede how they have been played as patsies by the consummate conman. The voting booth is private and we will see where our nation stands then. Examining the facts on the ground the result should be a resounding rejection of Trump and the GOP’s assault on our freedoms. The women’s vote should be enough to send them all packing. Add to that like minded men and the rout is on.
The stuff that impresses us does not mean Jack to them. If you want to sell them, need to address them viscerally.
The women's' vote. I live in Florida where abortion is on the ballot. I volunteer and donate to FT6. Using data mining, they identify unregistered folk who trend Democratic. Register Democrats and save the world.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
That said, there are Trump groups we can neutralize, and maybe flip. I work on Amish. Veterans ("not suckers or losers"), and the largest group, who metaphorically slit their own throats to support hatred of the "other."
I have extensive experience re sentences. There will be a presentence report that will include a recommendation. There is usually a lot of suspense. Most of the time Defendants find religion in honor of the occasion. Sometimes experts, like psychologists and psychiatrists are called to allege that the stress of trial caused the defendant to act out. Who knows, by July 11, Trump might have an epiphany, modify his attitude to avoid incarceration, beg for mercy.
Exactly correct, Mr. Solomon. Trump created his cult by scaring his target audience (disgruntled folks who feel abandoned by the economy, by technology, by their more affluent fellow citizens) half to death and then riling their emotions (skillfully--it is one of his talents) to a fever pitch.
Apparently that mix of adrenaline and cortisol is extremely addictive because the most fervent MAGA's seem to be more like druggies who follow their hero around like he's their "dealer" and they're desperate for their adrenaline/cortisol fix of fear and rage.
Appealing to such people with facts and calm reasoning is useless. They need gut punches--they need 'speechifying' using words that appeal to the emotions. They want to hear solutions that apply to THEM. That Trump's "solutions" were largely either totally impractical or totally illegal was moot; they believed he truly cared about them and their issues/grievances.
I have thought for a long time that many hard-core Trump supporters are, in effect, rageaholics. They are in a constant state of anger and outrage that causes an outpouring of adrenaline and cortisol. They became habituated to that, and then hooked on it; they need their fix, and Trump gives it to them.
You're onto something there - it's as if TFG provides them the addictive righteous indignation that similarly fuels the popularity of soap operas in our culture, vs. the PBS documentary style of governance provided by Biden. So, what's it going to be - Erica Kane or Ken Burns in 2024?
Ken Burns all the way! ;-)
And apparently trump on Trooth Social just cried out for the Supreme Court to find some way of stopping the sentencing. And the faithful will be further confused as to how our court system works.
😱🤯😠😠
I think many of Trump supporters could be persuaded to abandon him if they were able to learn how his presidency would affect their lives:” lower wages, lower taxes for the rich, not for them, inflation caused by corruption and tariffs, uneven enforcement of the law, alliance with Russia and loss of our democratic allies, and much more. But, it is very difficult to break into their bubble. In many groups criticizing Trump brings excommunication. Yet, there are many people who are uncomfortable supporting a man who owes half a billion dollars for fraud, is an unrepentant sexual predator, and now a felon. If we get them to see one truth, the whole myth falls apart.
Well, as I asked on Joyce Vance’s Civil Discourse: “What is the most effective means to get this message to those who will listen before November 5?”
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Amen! Hammer the victory home. Look at the billboards put up by @TrueFactsStated on twitter (never X to me).
Thank you for this extensive look at our reality. It helps this reader maintain his perspective.
Bob, it seems to me we are ignoring the elephant in the room. What will it take to wake up the American people? Putin and friends like Orban and Xi are engaged in what Thom Hartmaan refers to as an 'irregular war'. They were already successful in defeating Hillary Clinton and poisoning the minds of uninformed Americans, but their motives now are much more sinister than that. Hartmann, if he can be believed and I do, has stated that tRump had 16 meetings with Lavrov and associates, where he gave up US assets that resulted in the multiple deaths of US spies. If this is true, tRump committed treason, IMO. The Rosenberg's were executed for far less. tRump has the backing of 50 billionaires, Federalist Society, led by Leonard Leo who gave us SC judges like Roberts, Alito, Kavanaugh, Barrett and Gorsuch. Last but not least, tRump has the republican congress in the palm of his hand. He is a cornered criminal who will stop at nothing, including the destruction of our 250 year old democracy. Why isn't Hartmann's warnings the number one issue that faces America? Winning the next election will not solve this overwhelming problem.The best It may do is sweep it under the rug for a while.
https://hartmannreport.com/p/how-fascist-leaders-are-using-irregular-2aa?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=302288&post_id=145235761&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=bpxdl&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Wonderful post. You state facts succinctly... Thank you!
I especially like #5!
Thank you for pointing us to rvat.org! It’s “Republican Voters Against Trump" and is chock full of video testimonials about how he has lost previously consistent Republican voters. The most frequent thing that got them to 86 45 is January 6.
I agree.How about “ Trump is a convicted felon who hates dogs”?
The next level is "Do you support stealing from kids with cancer?"
He hates dogs and when Melania had a baby he dad sex with Stormy Daniels.
Let’s not get away from the original sin that caused the chain of events that led to the conviction.
The sex is what he wanted to hide. Let’s not let him distract from that.
Yes!!!
That's you. You aren't MAGAT.
At the golf courses he occupies, that's par for the course.
We are not trying to change the mind of MAGA people. They are not going to be swayed by convictions, proven lies, rapes,or if he shots someone. That’s a given and it is a waste of our energy to debate with them.
The suburban women who were the ones Donald wanted to keep from knowing about him having sex with Stormy when Melania had a baby are the ones we want to remind of this and ask if they can vote for such a vile man.
I’m surprised that this wasn’t clear to you from my comment.
You are dead wrong. Mostly visceral stuff works. Only need to flip a small percentage.
E.G. I am a member of a DNC veterans/Vote Vets group. I published some of the testimonials above. "Not suckers or losers" works. The Vote Vets Memorial Day video went viral and hundreds more are sending in testimonials. https://votevets.org/
I have another mission to the Amish.
I also work with groups who do outreach to SSI recipients, many who are Registered Republican and "slit their own throats." They trust the lawyers, medical providers, social workers, caregivers who contact them.
Here in Florida MAGA women are having epiphanies daily. The 6 week ban affects them, too.
Do you think telling me I’m dead wrong is a way to persuade me? It isn’t.
Look at the videos. More every day.
So true. Do not waste your time with any MAGA people. Use your time those who can engage and listen and be sure to listen to them. Have talking points ( I love the one about supporting a candidate who steals from kids with cancer.), state them nicely and positively and if resistance remains strong move on. Do not dismiss or rule out younger people. They’re smarter than they are given credit for.
The sex was secondary.It was control, dominance and disrespect for women.Stormy says it was consensual but also that he was bigger and blocked her way.
Robert relates that "Senator Susan Collins said the verdicts were illegitimate because Alvin Bragg ran for District Attorney on the promise he would indict Trump." On how many issues can Susan Collins hit the wrong notes before the voters of Maine send her home? She played a key role in the staffing of our current disfunctional and partisan Supreme Court, and now she's gone full MAGA. In times gone past, Maine was noteworthy for the independent streak it's elected representatives exhibited: Margaret Chase Smith at the front of the line.
We tried, we tried. I've sent Collins three letters and a postcard telling her she should retire because her judgment on the events of the past 8 years has gone so far off the rails.
She depends on Leonard Leo's support and fund-raising, so she feels that she no longer needs to listen to her constituents. She went all soft and squishy on DeVos, on Kavanaugh and worst of all, on Trump. I am ashamed to think that Collins occupies the same position as the (late) great Margaret Chase Smith.
Collins former colleague, Senator Olympia Snowe, although Republican, wouldn't have fallen into the sticky baited trap of slavish partisanship. Former Senator Snowe was a moderate, thoughtful Republican who was unafraid of going against the party if she thought the GOP was on the wrong track. Snowe was a worthy heir to the mantle of the late Senator Smith. Collins isn't fit to wipe the bottom of Margaret Chase Smith's barn boots.
For some strange reason I haven't had any reply.
She and a lot of other R and other females are traitors to our sex imfo.
Agree. I think that scares me as much as… the rest of it. White women helped elect X45/current34.
neither have i had a reply. written to her many times telling her she is an embrassment and a stain on our state. a greedy and dishonest person that has grown vastly wealthy beyond reason while 'serving' her constituents (not)
She sold out years ago and this is her last term. BTW we have not heard from Lindsey Graham.
No - once upon a time he was OK. Now he's busy licking his finger to see which way the wind is blowing.
Collins may have a tough fight on her hands in 2026.
But hasn't she disappointed so many Mainers with her mealy mouthed quotes about almost any topic - most glaringly during the Supreme Court Justice hearings? She's over-stayed her welcome IMHO.
Hopefully. But everybody that so in 2020, too. That cat seems to have seven political lives. Unfortunately not enough Maine voters are 'concerned.'
Maine's cd2 has a grossly uninformed electorate
"thought so" of course
Robert,
The first part of today’s post is especially helpful, with your calling BS on the MAGA spin strategy on Trump’s conviction and sharing new findings that he is losing voters bigly because many are now thinking of 45 as 34.
LOL! I always called him 45. Now I'm adopting the 45 now 34 moniker. Thanks Gary.
Or Dog Hating Felon-In-Chief!
Roberts "could issue a statement calling on Alito to recuse himself," etc.
ROBERTS: (whining) "You can't tell me what to do!!!"
Issuing grief over being 'told what to do' is one of the hallmarks of the conservative movement.
… and of petulant two year olds!
There's a pattern to Trump's antics: Use this handy guide to spot which habit he's showing.
"12 Habits Of Big Losers"
https://thedemlabs.org/2024/06/02/12-habits-of-big-losers/
Love the asymmetry argument in Concluding Thoughts! I was thinking yesterday that perhaps a useful strategy would be to say, "While I don't agree with EVERYTHING President Biden stands for, I don't agree with ANYTHING Trump stands for."
I've always maintained that if I agreed with everything a President does, it would mean they weren't doing their job. This is a large, diverse nation and the President represents much more than just my viewpoint. I agree with you on Trump, though. He is the virtual antithesis of everything I believe in.
I really like this.
Suppose he gets the 34 dropped to zero through appeal, in say 3 years, by some bizarre combo of GOP-favored judges.
So what? The verdict may have already lost him the election in '24. Who cares about any whining in 2027 over Innocence, Retribution, Revenge or what have you.
He'll be so long forgotten by '27, (for whatever reason,) that it will no longer matter.
"See! I TOLD you it was ELECTION INTERFERENCE!!"
Yeah? Well election interference got you into office in '16 so we're even.
"So what? The verdict may have already lost him the election in '24"
I wish I could agree with you, but Biden is still trailing in the 6-8 swing states that matter, even after the Manhattan verdict. Out in the sticks nobody cares about hush-money payments.
And for a lot of people (I fear) Biden is too old and hasn't changed the world during his term. He'll struggle hard to win, I reckon, the odds ae stacked against him.
I disagree with all that and do not hold polling in high regard. I don’t believe the outcomes. They’re meant to persuade rather than to inform.
And the Biden-being-too-old is getting too old.
It may be getting “old” but it is everywhere Even amongst Democratic voters who will vote for Biden the “Biden is too old” comment is still heard. But mostly among young people. It cannot be ignored.
Okay, Connie. What do we do? Make Biden younger? Seriously, I am all ears.
Absolutely not. My point is that Biden’s age is a concern for certain demographics. It is not for me or many of my colleagues and friends but if you listen to their children and grandchildren they are concerned. I think this needs to be acknowledged. That’s it.
I’m not ignoring it. It’s just that nobody really knows how old too old is. If you go by physical condition and productivity, Biden is many laps ahead in this horse and jackass race.
People from both parties do not like two "old men" running for president. Unfortunately, for 2024, those will be our choices. Biden has proven himself over and over. We have to keep pressing this message with details and reflection against what 45 now 34 did and is doing.
If those are our only choices, I'm goin' with good ol' Biden!
Get over it
Quite right Susan. The only poll that counts starts with early voting and ends on Nov. 5. We have to point all our efforts at that and not be distracted or overly dismayed by notional assessments of public opinion based on questionable interaction with an insignificant fraction of the American electorate.
Ends on Nov 5th, or perhaps a bit after.
Hear that, 45??
Said well, Dave.
Thanks Susan.
See my reply to Ian
-- I'm with you 10000%
Hi, Ian. To be clear, Biden is trailing among ALL voters. But when you look at LIKELY voters--the traditional metric--Biden is leading in most swing states.
“ Note that G. Elliot Morris who is the new chief at 538 confirmed that they, like us here at Hopium, understand the race to be a toss up right now. Trump does not lead, nor he is favored, and commentators simply must stop saying he is.”
https://open.substack.com/pub/simonwdc/p/voting-on-day-1-id-much-rather-be?r=fqsxl&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
G.Elliot is a shining graduate of the University of Texas's College of Liberal Arts. We are very proud of him, and the work he is doing to defend democracy and reason.
I also completely disagree with you. Biden is not behind in all the swing states and, in fact, even before the verdict, was slightly ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the three most important states when likely voters, as opposed to registered voters, have been polled. In addition, nearly every poll, both before and after the trial, has shown that a guilty verdict would cost Trump's votes. One showed that 49% of independents want Trump to drop out of the race, another that up to 15% of Republicans will no longer vote for him. This is and has been a very close contest, and you’re trying to say, in defiance of the data that we have, that the verdict means nothing and that Biden is losing? Yeah, get out of town with that.
Let’s be clear no pollster knows what the impact of the guilty verdict will mean in a November because the conviction is only a single piece of why someone will vote for or against Trump.
The problem/error with the last 8 months of polling data is not that it's "fake". It's that the demographics of respondents who answered the poll are mostly skewed conservative/MAGA. (some are skewed Liberal). This bias had been especially true with the NYTimes/Sienna poll which significantly overweights Rural respondents. Therefore the poll results are favorable to Trump and are nowhere near the voter demographics of 2020 when Biden beat Trump with 81 million votes to 74 million.
Tomorrow I will send a short analysis of how this impacts the swing states picture creates by the Times poll.
It's interesting that Nate Cohn has started backtracking on what his polling "means". Maybe he actually looked at who his biased poll is helping and he, like so many Democrats has freaked out
Which polls are you reading that indicate Biden is trailing in the swing states? How are those polls constructed, i.e. how is the information obtained? Land lines? How many people still have land lines and what are their ages? If obtained any other way, are those methods random enough to obtain actual representations of opinions? And what about the politics of the agency collecting the information? Remember that lots of Republican-leaning pollsters “flood the zone” to skew the numbers. Most importantly, what is the margin of error?
The polls I’ve read have Biden ahead and ahead outside the margin of error in two of the swing states (Arizona, Wisconsin) and the others are basically tied - Another words, within the margin of error so who knows who is ahead? Doesn’t spin any other way in terms of statistics.
Don’t buy the negative headlines of the MSM. It’s waaayyyy too early to be predicting anything. Remember the Red Wave BS that took over in 2022 in the media - and never materialized.
Biden is the best president in my lifetime (70). Let’s all work to get out the vote and keep it that way!!
@ Ian: Half of Americans think Trump's guilty verdict was correct, should end campaign: POLL/
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/plurality-americans-trumps-guilty-verdict-correct-hush-money/story?id=110744698
The problem with these polls is are the people being polled going to vote ?
“We are seeing a pattern emerge in recent polling that Biden does better, and Trump worse, as you move from adult to registered voter to likely voter. In my post and presentation from Thursday, (do watch and read!) I explained why this dynamic is an encouraging development for Joe Biden and Democrats more broadly. Here’s an excerpt:”
https://open.substack.com/pub/simonwdc/p/biden-leads-49-45-in-new-abc-poll?r=fqsxl&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
50% is a big number.
Stephen, I agree with you that nothing in the polling should be considered predictive of November. Still, the consistency of the data we have, both before and after the verdict, is enough to say that having been convicted of 34 felonies is likely more deleterious to Trump’s presidential prospects than it is helpful.
Don't forget, polls are more like fortune-telling than anything else. Stop reading them. (Unless, of course, you've personally had excellent results from fortune-telling.) And please stop talking about Biden's age. Have you noticed, the media has stopped talking about that, after all his vigorous campaigning, stellar fundraising, rigorous traveling, and truly wonderful speeches. TRUMP, now, will turn 78 on June 14. If you want to talk about age, please talk about that. In fact, let's throw Trump a national birthday party. Maybe the numerals "78" in fireworks?
“ And for a lot of people (I fear) Biden is too old …”:
Maybe he should show up at rallies with an orange wig and orangy makeup, then strip them off. It would be a hit!
😂 Yeah, it's funny to imagine that, isn't it? Of course, the orange disaster would probably twist it around to ' he wants to be me!'. 🙄
"Joe Biden has been a great president; we should be proud to have him as our nominee. Let’s start acting like it!" I AM PROUD!!!
Spot on, Robert Hubbell! "Joe Biden has been a great president; we should be proud to have him as our nominee. Let’s start acting like it!" Your idea about comparing criticisms of Biden to what Trump is proposing (if anything) is a smart one. Compare and contrast, often and with conviction!
True. And as a foreign observer I'd like to add: compare the state of the economy with the rest of the world. In Germany we would love to have the US numbers.
I canvassed in Reno, NV over the weekend and I wanted to share some conversations I had with voters. I spoke with 4 Independent/No party Preference voters and, while they are not yet ready to commit to Biden (although my bet is they ultimately will), they all said they were definitely not voting for a convicted criminal felon - their words, not mine! Boy did that give me hope!
Thanks for the work in the important state of Nevada.
Robert
Thank you for helping keep Dems Keep election anxiety in check.
We're running against a Zombie Crime King and his Zombie followers. They do not own America. They are not close to the majority.
They are just really, really annoyingly loud and good at promotion.
They will get weaker as they are forced to operate in daylight.
Stay the course of decency.
Yes, and please let us try to remember that there are only 30-50 million MAGA extremists in the country. It's a lot, but not enough to elect somebody.
Exactly. It's why we should love numbers. And if we could parse the 30-50 million, we find fewer who vote.
Encode! Bravo! Nailed it! Proud to be a reader!
“The MAGA propaganda machine was prepared for the guilty verdicts and had a PR offensive at the ready.”
Robert hit the nail on the head with this quote, and should any of us be surprised? Propaganda is what they have. They don't have facts on their side, so they repeat lies often enough that people come to believe them. Do you know who does have facts, though? President Biden, the Democrats, and the army of grassroots supporters behind them. I’ve been disappointed that so many of us have fallen victim to this propaganda. No, the 34 felony convictions are not a boon to MAGA; they're one more tool in our toolbox in our battle against fascism. This is not the time to despair but rather a time to put this toolbox to work.
Facts do not convince people. Facts do not win elections. Intellectual idealists think they do. They don't. Einstein reputedly said, "if the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." You said it yourself: we need our own persuasive "propaganda." Also known less pejorative as messaging or public relations.
*pejoratively
Robert, I am a paid subscriber and I recommend your newsletter to many others. I am also a member of Women Donors Network. A few of us have put together a website, despairisnotanoption.com, designed to increase engagement before November among those who feel hopeless, helpless or exhausted. Our site lists an array of activities, encourages people to choose the one they like, and lists organizations with whom to take action. We also recommend several substacks, including yours. We sent it to Jessica Craven, who featured it, and we are hoping that you would be willing to do the same, perhaps in your Opportunities for Engagement section. The website has been enthusiastically received so far and fits in with your credo to take action and encourage friends and family to do the same. Hoping to hear from you.
Susan thank you for the link. I have just looked at the websites for both. I was particularly impressed with the work of the Women Donors Network. I second your request to Robert and will be forwarding to friends.
IMO our energies and time are better spent engaging in these grassroots efforts than writing letters to Chuck Schumer, Supreme Court Justice Roberts or the 11th circuit making demands or lodging complaints. Those efforts will not move the needle. These will. Again thank you.
I just sent this link to my friend who is heading up the Democratic party in our little town. She's a go-getter and will be able to share with even more voters. Thanks!
Thank you very much. That's great. And please have them sign up at the bottom of the main page for updates.
This website is GOLD!
Thank you so very much. Please spread the word widely.
I’m not sure how many voters paid attention to the Trump trial but they did pay attention to the guilty verdict. The coordinated media attacks on the verdict probably did not influence the Independent and real Republicans and confirmed their predisposed opinion of Trump. Defending Trump is not a winning campaign strategy and by doing so the risks and pushback is huge. For me the next big event is the debate scheduled in June. Trump is in a no win situation. If he skips the debate it sends the message he is afraid to debate and if he attends he runs the risk of having to defend his guilty verdict. Let’s see what he tries to do.
I mostly agree with this, but he won't just skip it. He will go on and on about how unfair it is, and stacked against him and the liberal media and blah, blah, blah. His voters will buy it, and the NYT, WaPo, and networks will all dutifully take dictation from his campaign. Here's the NYT headline in advance, "Citing biased rules, Trump skips CNN debate, plans biggest rally yet"
Amen Robert!!!!