Today’s Edition: Stepping back to gain perspective.

September 29, 2021

          The headlines on Tuesday evening are dire and there are so many moving parts it is difficult to keep track of the latest developments, much less predict an outcome. In such times, it is always best to step back to gain perspective. So, let’s start with the most troubling predictions and consider the risks of materialization. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that there would be “catastrophic” consequences if Congress fails to raise or suspend the debt limit by October 18th. The likelihood that Congress will fail to do so is effectively zero—precisely because the consequences would be catastrophic. The process of getting to “Yes” will be ugly, infuriating, and dispiriting to those who believe that the interests of the American people should prevail over partisan gamesmanship. But in the end, America will pay its debts.

          As to the likelihood of a government “shutdown” at midnight on Thursday evening, the odds are better than even. But we have endured 21 government shutdowns since 1976. Though millions of Americans will suffer economic pain or be denied access to government services, vast swaths of the federal government are deemed to be “essential” and will continue to operate. Government benefits will be paid, including Social Security, veteran’s benefits, and unemployment. But new applications for those benefits will be delayed. So, too, with applications for visas, passports, and federally insured home loans. Government employees who are furloughed will be paid, though their paychecks will be delayed until after the shutdown ends. Essential workers will remain on duty, including the military, Homeland Security, TSA, DEA, and Border Patrol. Courts will remain open. See, generally, Causes and Effects of Government Shutdowns. Though the economy will not grind to a halt, there will be significant economic losses and disruption to hundreds of thousands of federal employees. See Fact Sheet by Senator Patrick Leahy, Projected Impacts of a Trump Shutdown.

          Though we can muddle through the debt ceiling crisis and a government shutdown, Biden’s ambitious legislation appears on the brink of collapse—or not. Biden is engaged in personal diplomacy with Senators Manchin and Sinema, which appears to have yielded little result. The problem children of the Democratic Party will tell anyone who will listen that the reconciliation package is too big, but they refuse to offer any specifics about what they will support. See Politico, “Manchin, Sinema leave Dems in lurch as Biden agenda teeters.” (“The two moderate Democrats continue to frustrate members of their party, offering few specifics on what they would support in a broad spending bill.”)

          Manchin and Sinema continue to insist that Democrats hold a stand-alone vote on the “bipartisan” infrastructure bill. In a surprising move viewed as a betrayal by Progressives, Nancy Pelosi agreed to a stand-alone vote in the House. That decision broke the agreement made by Pelosi and Schumer when they accommodated the request of “moderate” Democrats to carve out portions of the reconciliation package and fashion those provisions as a bipartisan bill. The linkage between the two bills was always explicit. In the August 9th edition of this newsletter, I wrote

The future of the infrastructure bill is contingent. Speaker Pelosi has repeatedly said that she will not allow a vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill unless it is accompanied by the larger budget reconciliation bill. We should expect Speaker Pelosi to stick to her promise—and also expect that she will come under tremendous pressure from Senate Democrats to allow a standalone vote on the bipartisan bill.

          By allowing the infrastructure bill to proceed on its own, she has broken faith with the majority of her caucus, who trusted her assurances that the bills would proceed as a package. The progressive Democrats in the House are furious and have threatened to vote against the bipartisan infrastructure bill. See The Hill, “Left warns Pelosi they'll take down Biden infrastructure bill.”

          Before predicting possible outcomes, it is worth noting that the “Progressive” wing of the Democratic Party is fighting to protect the agenda proposed by President Biden. They are not out on a limb with a wild-eyed “socialist wish list.” The American people elected Joe Biden as a centrist candidate, he proposed the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package, and Progressives are trying to save it. The media has overlooked that fundamental point and are portraying this fight as a grudge match between Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Joe Manchin. It is not. Progressives have every right to be dismayed and angered by Speaker Pelosi’s broken promise.

          But politics is the art of the possible and hurt feelings don’t count for much. There are three possible outcomes: both bills pass, only the infrastructure bill passes, or both bills fail. If you add to the mix the fact Speaker Pelosi is famous for being able to count votes, the single most likely outcome is that the infrastructure bill passes—because Speaker Pelosi has scheduled a vote on the bill and is confident it will pass. If that happens, it will be because Progressives put the interests of the American people above all else. If it does not happen, it will be because Nancy Pelosi reneged on her promise that both bills would proceed as a package.  

          If the infrastructure bill passes, we should fully expect Manchin and Sinema to double-cross their colleagues, as well as President Biden and the American people. Their refusal to give straight answers now about what they will support is a strong signal that they will support almost nothing in the reconciliation package.

          I hope that I am wrong about the most likely outcome (infrastructure only) and the future conduct of Manchin and Sinema. But even an “infrastructure only” outcome will be a victory for Biden. Of course, if both bills fail, it is always possible for responsible parties to reconsider their positions and give it another try.

          In a few months, only the outcome will matter. The Byzantine path to the outcomes will not. But when this mess is over, we need to conduct an “after action review” to determine how Democrats got backed into this corner. Of course, with a few more Democrats in both chambers of Congress, there would be no “corner” to be backed into. Let’s focus on fixing that part of the equation while Democratic leaders try to land this plane.

Generals testify before Congress

          Several senior military and Defense Department leaders testified before Congress on Tuesday. I strongly recommend for your review the opening comments by General Milley regarding the withdrawal from Afghanistan. See “Gen. Mark Milley Written Statement.” The media and commentators have made accusations about lack of planning, the failure to heed intelligence, the “reckless” decision to abandon Bagram airbase, and the chaos of the evacuation. Whether you agree or disagree with those accusations, I guarantee that you will be better informed if you read Milley’s comments. If the armchair generals on CNN and MSNBC take the time to see what Milley said to Congress, they should be issuing retractions of their criticisms any day now. (But don’t hold your breath while waiting.)

          Milley, DOD Secretary Austin, and two other senior officers said they personally disagreed with Biden’s decision to withdraw. NYTimes, “Gen. Milley Says He Warned Biden Against Afghanistan Withdrawal.” But as Milley said in response to Senator Tom Cotton,

          Decision makers are not required, in any manner, shape or form, to follow [our] advice . . . . This country doesn’t want generals figuring out what orders we’re going to accept and do or not. That’s not our job.

          Milley is right. We give the military two tools to solve problems: troops and weapons. With those limited tools, the military tends to see the solution to every problem as involving troops and weapons. That is why we have civilian control of the military. Joe Biden was right to override the advice of his generals, whose advice was constrained to military objectives. Biden is responsible for the foreign policy and national security of the U.S. and he balanced those objectives against the advice he received.

Rough sailing for Biden?

          It seems that Biden is caught in a “bad news cycle.” His approval ratings on handling the pandemic have turned negative. See Axios, “Trust in Biden on COVID plunges.” And commentators are cataloguing Biden’s perceived failures. See Ross Douthat in The Irish Times, “Democrats should recognize possibility Trump might win in 2024.” Per Douthat,

          What has gone wrong for Biden is a combination of bad luck, bad choices and inherent weakness. The bad luck is mostly about Covid-19 itself, whose delta variant surge no president could have easily controlled. That may be the most important drag on Biden’s approval rating – which started to decline in earnest around the time the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention restored a mask recommendation.

          I have two reactions to the “string of bad news” and the pervasiveness of negative commentary in the media. Biden’s favorability ratings are being driven in large part by the pandemic. He benefitted when his aggressive (and effective) vaccination plan overlapped with a natural waning of third wave of the pandemic. Having accepted a boost from the happy coincidence of the third-wave decline, he is now saddled with the unhappy coincidence of an emergent variant wreaking havoc among the unvaccinated. This, too, shall pass. The wave of delta variant infections is waning. See NYTimes, “Covid in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count.” If the over-crowded emergency rooms return to normal in November, public sentiment should follow—whether Biden deserves credit or not.

          As to the pervasive media criticism and unwillingness of commentators to give Biden credit for returning American politics to the pale of normalcy, I have the following reaction: Politics under Trump defied description and busted every political norm. It was essentially impossible to report on Trump without saying, “This is unprecedented; I am at a loss for words; there is no bottom to his depravity.” But under Biden, the normal rules of political engagement apply. Commentators know how to write about a politician whose popularity waxes and wanes with each new skirmish. They understand the blood‑sport of congressional politics and have trusted sources who can feed them stories to fuel the “Who’s winning today?” narrative.

          In other words, political commentators criticize Biden so effortlessly because doing so is in the sweet spot of what they have been trained to do. When the fourth wave of the pandemic is in the distant past (i.e., more than 30 days ago), commentators like Ross Douthat can write that Biden has regained popularity because he has vanquished the virus. Column inches will be filled, soap will be sold, and all will be right in the Fourth Estate. So, relax. Biden has managed to bring political commentary back to its usual sorry state. That’s a good thing.

Concluding Thoughts.

          For those of you looking to make an immediate impact, the 2021 elections in Virginia are calling you. As noted in previous newsletters, Virginia has an election in November that will elect the governor, attorney general, and members of the House of Delegates, among other offices. The races are tightening, and Democratic control is at stake in a state that was key to Biden’s victory. I received a note from a PostCardsToVoters member who reminded me that PCTV is still writing for races in Virginia. It is not too late to help out. Visit Volunteer (postcardstovoters.org) if you want to help preserve Democratic control in Virginia.

          I have been saying for a few weeks that “the next week will be rough going.” That caution remains true for another week, but don’t panic. Democrats can raise the debt limit and fund the government on their own, if need be. The fights over the infrastructure bill and the reconciliation package can proceed at their leisure after the vote on Thursday in the House. Whatever happens on Thursday, that will not be the end of the drama. Try to maintain equilibrium and calm in the face of daily swings in political fortunes. Save your strong emotional investments for the long-term fight, which requires sustained diligence and passion. We can do that. Indeed, we have been doing that since November 2016.

          Talk to you tomorrow!

Post-script: Cooler weather has slowed the progress of the KNP Complex Fire towards our mountain community.