Today’s Edition: “Rallying the world’s democracies.”

June 10, 2021

          For the first time in more than four years, an American president is traveling overseas and the U.S. diplomatic community is not filled with dread. Whatever happens, no one expects that Biden will inflict grievous injury on alliances that have endured for more than a century. No one expects that he will hold “off-the-record” meetings with the leader of our most feared adversary. No one expects that he will excuse the illegal interference of that adversary in U.S. politics or that he will publicly endorse disinformation from Russia’s intelligence service over the carefully substantiated reports of the U.S. intelligence community. Whatever happens, Joe Biden's first overseas trip will be a success because he will not affirmatively damage the foreign policy interests of the United States. That is a low bar, indeed. But it could have been worse if Biden had not prevailed in 2020. Another reason to be grateful for this moment despite its difficulties.

          The truth is that Biden’s trip to the G-7 summit in the UK was a success before it started. Over the weekend, Biden published an op-ed in the Washington Post that set forth his expectations for the summit. See WaPo, Joe Biden,  Opinion: My trip to Europe is about America rallying the world’s democracies.” Biden described the purpose of the summit for America as follows:

          In this moment of global uncertainty, as the world still grapples with a once-in-a-century pandemic, this trip is about realizing America’s renewed commitment to our allies and partners, and demonstrating the capacity of democracies to both meet the challenges and deter the threats of this new age.

          Biden can expect a warm welcome for his affirmation of our “unwavering commitment” to our NATO allies. So, too, with his pledge to stand united with our European allies against “Russia’s challenges to European security, starting with its aggression in Ukraine.” That is a welcome change from the prior president’s under-the-table support for and encouragement of Russia’s territorial expansionism.

Biden’s op-ed promised greater cooperation with allies in fighting the coronavirus pandemic—a promise he fulfilled (in part) before departing for the summit. On Wednesday, Biden announced that the U.S. would purchase 500 million doses of the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine for global distribution. See CNBC, “U.S. to buy 500 million Pfizer Covid vaccines to share globally, source says.”

          Biden also announced a new “Atlantic Charter” with the United Kingdom, an effort to rekindle the “special relationship” between the U.S. and the U.K. See CNBC, “Biden, Johnson pledge new 'Atlantic Charter' covering tech, trade, travel.” The agreement is “expected to include commitments to resume U.S.-U.K. travel, boost trade, and a “landmark” technology pact designed to facilitate cooperation between British and American tech firms.” The new Atlantic Charter is a positive step towards rehabilitation after Trump’s wrecking-ball tour of the U.K. in July 2018. See New York Magazine, “Sun Interview: Trump Finds New Ways to Offend U.K. During Trip.” During that disastrous trip, Trump interfered in Brexit politics by threatening to cut off trade relations with the U.K. if then-Prime Minister Theresa May pursued a “soft-Brexit” strategy. Trump’s gaffe was the equivalent of Queen Elizabeth calling Nancy Pelosi and telling her to eliminate the universal mail ballot provision of H.R.1. because “It’s not cricket.”

          Biden’s separate meeting with Putin (in Geneva) will be confrontational. In his op-ed, Biden said that he would use his meeting with Putting to “underscore the commitment of the United States, Europe and like-minded democracies to stand up for human rights and dignity.” Putin responded by outlawing the opposition group led by his chief political opponent, Alexey Navalny—who is currently in prison in Russia. See ABC News, “Russia outlaws Putin critic Alexey Navalny's organizations as 'extremist'.” Putin is not a nice guy, no matter what Trump says.

          Finally, Biden has put climate change back on the international agenda—in a good way. As Biden put it, simply having the U.S. “back at the table” makes a substantial difference in the ability of the G-7 to coordinate on climate change solutions. Indeed, the location of the summit is intended to signal a future that is “carbon neutral” for the world’s leading economies. See Forbes, “Joe Biden Arrives In Cornwall For The Greenest G7 Summit.”

          As he has done in domestic politics, Biden is planning to “go big” in his first foreign trip. Even if he achieves only a small portion of his ambitious agenda, it will be a quantum leap for U.S. leadership on the global stage.

Inspector-General for Interior Department claims that Lafayette Square was not cleared for Trump photo opportunity.

The Inspector-General of the Interior Department, Mark Greenblatt, has delivered a report that seems to clear Bill Barr and Donald Trump of culpability for using force to clear Lafayette Square so that Trump could walk through Lafayette Square for a photo opportunity in front of a church (where he memorably held a Bible upside down). See USA Today, “Police did not clear protesters from Lafayette Park for Trump photo op, inspector general finds.” The Inspector General’s report asks the reader to set aside common sense and logic. The report claims that the plan to clear the Square had been developed by the Secret Service two days before the clash to allow for the construction of a fence around the center for the Square—allegedly having nothing to do with a planned photo opportunity by Trump. See Department of Interior, Office of Inspector General, “Review of U.S. Park Police Actions at Lafayette Park on June 1, 2020.” Per the report, a curfew was not in effect that day until 7:00 PM. Before curfew, the crowd in the public Square was lawfully assembled. The report sets forth the following timeline for June 1, 2020:

·       6:10 PM – Bill Barr stops by the Square to ask the officer in charge of security, “Are these people still going to be here when POTUS comes out?”

·       6:16 PM – Six minutes after Bill Barr’s visit, the Secret Service arrived at the Square (and before any order to disperse) and began pepper-spraying the crowd after the Service met with resistance.

·       6:23 PM — Thirteen minutes after Bill Barr’s visit, and more than half an hour before curfew, the location commander ordered the crowd to disperse.

·       6:28 PM — Eighteen minutes after Bill Barr’s visit, and only five minutes after the first dispersal order, the Park Police begin using pepper ball rounds, stinger ball grenades, and smoke canisters to clear the crowd.

·       6:50 PM — Forty minutes after Bill Barr’s visit, the Square is cleared by Park Police and Secret Service.

·       7:001 PM – Eleven minutes after the Square is cleared—ostensibly to allow for the construction of security fencing—Trump begins his walk through the Square, surrounded by Secret Service Agents who two days earlier set in motion the plan to clear the Square.

          Police commanders at the site told the Inspector General that Bill Barr’s visit did not influence the timing of their decision to clear the Square—even though the curfew was not yet in effect. Incredibly, the Inspector General believed those statements. In light of the timeline above, it stretches credulity to the breaking point to believe that Bill Barr’s question—“Are these people still going to be here?”—was not interpreted as a command to clear the Square.

          I expect that the media will provide more detailed analyses of the weaknesses in the report in the days to come. And in case you are wondering whether Inspector General Mark Greenblatt was appointed by Trump, the answer is “Yes.” No surprise there.

The Big Lie is hurting Republican enthusiasm going into the midterms.

It turns out that if you tell people that elections don’t matter, they believe you. Trump and his enablers have been telling the GOP base that the 2020 election was stolen and that Trump will be reinstated in 2021. Incredibly, 29% of Republican voters believe that lie. See Morning Consult, “29% of GOP Voters Say It’s Likely Trump Will Be Reinstated as President This Year.” When I first saw that headline, I was disappointed to learn that such a sizable portion of Republican voters could be delusional and ignorant of what the Constitution says about electing the president. But when I looked at the poll, I saw some encouraging news.

          First, the overwhelming majority of Democrats and Independents reject the lie that Trump will be reinstated. As I have said before, in a closely divided electorate, Independents will decide elections. Happily, Independents look like Democrats in the Morning Consult poll. Second, Morning Consult includes this bit of analysis:

           Recent Morning Consult polling has shown Democrats and Biden voters with an early enthusiasm advantage over Republicans and voters who backed Trump in 2020 ahead of the midterm elections. Republican leaders have also pressed Trump to drop his public denial of Biden’s victory and instead focus on attacking Biden and his agenda, but he instead doubled down on his false claims . . . .

          So, when you hear that some Republicans believe that Trump will be reinstated, recognize that the belief is setting them up for additional disappointment and disillusionment. The Big Lie is hurting Republicans, and Trump can’t let go of it.

Concluding Thoughts.

In yesterday’s newsletter, I wrote about Merrick Garland’s disappointing judgments in deciding to support dubious legal decisions made by the DOJ under Bill Barr. Garland may be investigating Trump in the background, but the two weak-kneed decisions made thus far create some doubt about Garland’s timber. The Boston Globe has just released a six-part series of editorials about the Trump presidency. Each is worth reading, but a good place to start is with the editorial titled, “The case for prosecuting Donald Trump.” Per the Globe’s editorial board, “The Justice Department must abandon two centuries of tradition by indicting and prosecuting Donald Trump for his conduct in office.” I recommend the entire editorial series to your attention.

          Merrick Garland is in the unenviable position of serving as the Attorney General following the most corrupt president in our nation’s history. Tough decisions must be made, and all decisions will be subjected to harsh criticism and unrestrained second-guessing. But having accepted a tough job, Garland should do it. Soon. Garland’s delay is undermining public confidence in the Department of Justice, an unfortunate development that it can ill afford after its humiliation and debasement under Trump. Although the Attorney General should not be swayed by public sentiment, the Attorney General is human and pays attention to feedback from the legal community through the media. Let’s hope that Garland is listening to the profound disappointment with his prosecutorial judgments and apparent indifference in the face of a brewing constitutional crisis.

          Talk to you tomorrow!