Today’s Edition: “Not a no, not a yes.”

October 28, 2021

         The negotiating process for the reconciliation bill has cast a bright light on how legislation is made. It is not a pretty picture. As noted in the two previous newsletters, the dynamic is changing so quickly that it is not helpful to recap the hourly swings in negotiating position. But if you have a sturdy constitution or are a glutton for punishment, I suggest reading the excellent coverage of the changing fates of the paid leave policy and billionaire’s tax in Talking Points Memo. As TPM notes, Senator Manchin’s position on the billionaire tax on Wednesday was “Not a no, not a yes.” But Manchin was definitely a “No” on paid family leave and paid medical leave—despite intense lobbying by Senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Patty Murray. Senator Sanders called Manchin’s refusal to back family paid leave “an embarrassment.”

          Manchin objected to paid family leave by saying,

          I want to work with everyone as long as we can start paying for things. That's all. I can't put this burden on my grandchildren.

          That’s a fair point. I have a suggestion for Senator Manchin. Choose one of the following: increase the corporate tax rate, increase the tax rate on incomes over $400,000, tax annual gains on the wealth of the 614 billionaires in the U.S., or allow the federal government to negotiate drug prices with Big Pharma for Medicare recipients.  But Senators Manchin and Sinema have objected to every proposal in the reconciliation bill to “start paying for things.” As a result, Democrats began drafting another change to the tax code on Wednesday.  

          To state the obvious, Manchin and Sinema are gaslighting their Democratic colleagues. On the one hand, the two Senators object to the cost of the reconciliation bill on the ground that “we cannot afford it,” while simultaneously objecting to every revenue proposal to pay for the programs in the bill.  They have also objected to giving the IRS more authority to identify tax cheats. Moreover, Manchin and Sinema seem to have agreed to take turns objecting to provisions in the bill, changing the familiar “Good cop, bad cop” negotiating ploy into a “Bad cop, bad cop” variation. It is enough to test the patience of their colleagues.

          Despite the intra-party fighting over the scope of the reconciliation bill, Republicans have been noticeably silent. Although they are giving lip service to their tired attack on “tax and spend” Democrats, Republicans are not objecting to the programs in the bill—which are widely popular. Instead, Republicans are focused on hyper-local, divisive cultural issues—like the literature curriculum in Virginia middle schools.  

          The infighting has been bruising. It will take time for congressional Democrats and voters to forget the ugly process of passing legislation. If Democrats can pass any reconciliation bill, it will give them a solid foundation for the 2022 midterms. The odds remain in favor of passage, despite the media frenzy over negotiations. As before, we should focus on those things we can control, rather than fretting over the last-minute drama of passing the reconciliation package. If you would like to let your congressional representatives know how you feel, Jessica Craven’s blog, “Chop Wood, Carry Water” has contact information for members of Congress and suggested talking points relating to the reconciliation package.

Senator Tom Cotton’s attack on Merrick Garland.

          School board members around the country are receiving death threats for implementing mask requirements. The FBI issued a memo saying that it would investigate credible threats of violence against school board members. Republicans have turned that memo on its head, claiming that the FBI is trying to suppress the free speech rights of parents attending school board meetings. On Wednesday, Senator Tom Cotton repeated that lie in a hearing attended by Attorney General Merrick Garland. Cotton refused to allow Garland to answer rapid-fire questions, then stormed out of the hearing room after saying

          [Y]our performance is shameful. Thank God you are not on the Supreme Court. You should resign in disgrace.

          It was Cotton’s performance for the cameras that was shameful. The threats of violence are specific and targeted. They threaten violence against board members’ families, including children. The fact that the GOP defends such behavior is corrosive to the rule of law.

          Speaking of Merrick Garland, the New Yorker considered the tough decisions facing Garland as the DOJ assesses whether to prosecute Steve Bannon for contempt. See New Yorker, “Garland vs. Bannon Is Bidenism vs. Trumpism.” I continue to believe that Garland has failed in his role as the nation’s chief law enforcement officer by “looking the other way” when it comes to prosecuting leaders of the insurrection. The New Yorker article offers a more sympathetic view of Garland for those who believe Garland should prioritize rehabilitation of the DOJ over prosecution of the leaders of the coup attempt.

Report on leading contender for 2024 GOP nomination.

          Whenever I write about Trump, I receive angry emails from readers telling me not to mention Trump because I am “just giving him the attention he craves.” Fair point, but the man is the leading contender for the 2024 GOP nomination, has firm control over the Republican Party, and is publicly plotting a second coup attempt. That makes him newsworthy, in my opinion. But I will do my best to be brief.

          GOP members of Congress who voted to impeach Trump are outraising their pro-Trump primary challengers. The Wall Street Journal published in full and without comment an op-ed from Trump disguised as a “letter to the editor” from Trump in which he repeated his lie that the 2020 election was “rigged.” Trump’s effort to start his own social media platform is doomed because he violated the terms of service of the source code used to build the app.

          I have saved the best for last: Trump has threatened to move out of the country if Democrats pass the billionaire’s tax. So, Democrats, what are you waiting for? Pass the billionaire’s tax so Trump will leave the country ASAP! Either way, it is a win. If he moves out of the country, he can’t run in 2024. If he doesn’t move out of the country, the tax on unrealized capital gains will hit him hard.

Concluding Thoughts.

          It is easy to believe that fights over textbooks will make voters forget about how terrible Trump and the GOP are. Such stories provide fodder for television and opinion essays that predict the end of democracy. But we must not forget that Trump has offended many clear-thinking Republicans and persuadable Independents. Some of Biden’s swing state victories in 2020 were razor thin. It won’t take much of a decrease in support for Trump to solidify those victories for Biden in 2024.

          A group of writers, activists, and academics published a letter in The Bulwark that is a call to action for Democrats—and any American who values our democratic system. See The Bulwark, “An Open Letter in Defense of Democracy.” The letter opens by noting that the authors “have long disagreed about many things,” but agree that democracy is under serious assault. They call all Americans to action, saying

We urge the Democratic-controlled Congress to pass effective, national legislation to protect the vote and our elections, and if necessary to override the Senate filibuster rule.

And we urge all responsible citizens who care about democracy—public officials, journalists, educators, activists, ordinary citizens—to make the defense of democracy an urgent priority now.

          The statements in the letter resonated with many readers who forwarded it to me. I recommend it for your attention. The most important aspect of the letter is that activists, writers, and academics of every political leaning were able to agree on the proposition that democracy is under attack and that “all responsible citizens” must make the defense of democracy an “urgent priority.” I agree.

          If you are reading this newsletter, you have likely committed to defending democracy through political activism. It is easy to maintain urgency when Trump is on the ballot. It is more difficult when the news is dominated by intra-party fights over social programs. And we are pulled in many different directions by competing worthy causes, resulting in burnout and distraction.

          As we move into the thick of the fight over 2022, try to focus your energy on those candidates and causes where you can make a difference. Millions of Americans will help defend democracy in 2022 and 2024; you don’t have to do it all on your own. Do what you can, and trust that others will fill in the breach. But in that small area of the battlefield that you occupy, maintain a sense of urgency. If we all do so, we cannot fail.

          Talk to you tomorrow!