Today’s Edition: Losing his grip?

July 29, 2021

          The big news on Wednesday was the 67-32 vote in the Senate to advance the bipartisan infrastructure bill to the floor for debate. The vote was a victory for President Biden and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. However, the fates of the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the larger budget reconciliation bill are not certain. Both bills must pass multiple additional votes in the Senate and obtain passage in the House, where the bills have been linked by Speaker Pelosi. In other words, there is reason for cautious optimism—with emphasis on “cautious.” All in, it was a good day for President Biden.

          The complicated process of moving towards passage is explained in the daily newsletter from Crooked Media, “What A Day: Passing the BIF test.” As noted, the result of the months long negotiations has been to strip away many of Biden’s priorities and reduce the overall price-tag for the bill, which will include only $550 billion in new spending. Democrats agreed to reduce spending on public transportation by $10 billion and eliminated spending to re-unite minority neighborhoods divided (or isolated) by freeway construction. Republicans demanded that the bill be subject to the “open amendment process” on the Senate floor, which could un-do the carefully negotiated agreement that was the result of the months of negotiations. Or not. The fact that 17 Republicans voted to advance the bill to the floor is a positive sign. But the bill must overcome another filibuster barrier of 60 votes to end debate and allow a vote.  

          The ultimate fate of the infrastructure bill was immediately threatened by Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who sent a note to an Arizona newspaper saying that she opposed the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package—which is part of the legislative “quid pro quo” Democrats thought they were getting by agreeing to the infrastructure bill. See The Hill, “Sinema says she opposes $3.5T price tag for spending bill.” In fairness, Sinema said she opposes only the price tag of the reconciliation bill and will support bringing the bill to the floor for debate. In other words, her statement was a gratuitous thumb in the eye of her fellow Democrats that served no purpose except to provoke the progressives in the House. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tweeted,

          Good luck tanking your own party’s investment on childcare, climate action, and infrastructure while presuming you’ll survive a 3 vote House margin - especially after choosing to exclude members of color from negotiations and calling that a “bipartisan accomplishment.”

          The tweet from Rep. Alexandria Cortez and the note from Senator Sinema were both unnecessary and unhelpful but reflect the razor-thin pathway to success amid tensions in the Democratic Party. Unless both bills pass in the House—with a three vote Democratic majority—the bipartisan accomplishment that seems close at hand on Wednesday may disappear. Let’s hope that cooler heads prevail and that Twitter fingers remain holstered for the duration of the effort.

          Significantly, the seventeen Republican Senators who supported the infrastructure bill did so despite active opposition from Trump. Politico, “Trump tries to sabotage the Biden infrastructure deal.” GOP Senator Portman asked Trump to “tone down his criticisms” of the bill. Trump responded by saying that the bipartisan bill “makes the Republicans look weak, foolish, and dumb.” Whew! Good thing Trump toned down his criticisms! Trump also said that “this will be a victory for the Biden Administration and Democrats, and will be heavily used in the 2022 election.” You got that right, Donald.

          Although Trump could still derail the infrastructure bill, today’s defeat for Trump suggests he is losing his grip on the Republican Party—if only by a small margin. I noted yesterday that Trump’s endorsed candidate in the Texas 6th Congressional District lost. As one reader noted, we should be careful about over-interpreting one special election. That said, it was a special election between two Republicans where Trump’s candidate was the widow of the Representative who died in office. In a low-turnout election, Trump was unable to drive a few thousand votes to his preferred candidate. See CNN, “The dirty little secret about Donald Trump's endorsement.” In fact, Trump has a high percentage winning streak in endorsing candidates—though much of those “wins” came when he was president. The most recent data point is the vote in Texas earlier this week—which is not good for Trump.

          There are other signs of a subtle change in Trump’s aura of invincibility. Trump famously “broke up” with Fox News after it was among the first news organizations to say that he lost the 2020 election. Trump told viewers to ditch Fox for Newsmax, which they did in droves. Newsmax responded by becoming an “all Trump, all the time” news outlet. Newsmax’s viewership soared, and Fox’s sank. Roll forward to today and Newsmax has lost half its viewers despite wall-to-wall coverage of Trump. See Vox, “Why Newsmax is failing, explained by an expert.” For example, Newsmax carried Trump’s recent speech in Arizona live, while Fox News ignored it. Of course, most Fox viewers are supporters of Trump—but may be tiring of Trump’s one-trick-pony schtick of “Look at me! Look at me!”

          Though Trump may be losing his grip on the GOP, he remains dangerous, and it would be a mistake to underestimate him, just as it would be a mistake to overestimate him. The vote in the Senate on Wednesday demonstrated that Joe Biden’s persistence can overcome Trump’s malevolence.

The despicable response of Fox commentator Laura Ingraham to testimony by Capitol Hill officers.

          Fox News host Laura Ingraham mocked the officers who testified before the Select Committee on Tuesday. She called their testimony “third-rate theatrics,” and gave faux-awards for “best use of an exaggeration in a supporting role,” “best action hero,” and “award for blatant use of partisan politics when facts fail.” See Newsweek, “Laura Ingraham Mocks Police Testimony on January 6 With 'Best Performance' Awards.”

         Ingraham’s comments were despicable and should be condemned by Fox News and the Republican Party. No advertiser should support her show. The Lincoln Project has published a statement saying, “In the coming weeks, The Lincoln Project will take a look at the advertisers and guests on The Ingraham Angle and seek to pressure them into abandoning the show.” Ingraham is free to publish reprehensible statements—just as advertisers and guests are free to express their disgust by punishing Fox and Ingraham for publishing those statements. Stay tuned to this space for future information on Ingraham’s advertisers.

A perspective on the GOP’s anti-vaxxer stance.

          As the Delta variant gains purchase in states with low vaccination rates, Republicans have doubled-down on anti-vaccine propaganda. Why would the Republican Party adopt a position that will kill some of its members? Dan Pfeiffer addresses this question in his blog, “Why the GOP Wants to Kill Its Voters.” Pfeiffer offers the following cogent explanation:

          The Republican Party cozies up to anti-vaxxers for the same reason that they cozy up to QAnon, White Supremacists, and Right-Wing militias like the Oath Keepers; they have no choice. With every passing day, the Republicans become a smaller and smaller part of the electorate. Winning political power — even an Electoral College and Senate tilted dramatically in their favor — becomes more challenging. They need higher and higher turnout from a shrinking base.

          I agree with Pfeiffer’s assessment. The GOP is venturing into increasingly extremist ideologies because it needs more voters—no matter the cost. The Republican Party is losing the battle for Independents, so it must seek support among white supremacists, QAnon adherents, Big Lie promoters, and anti-vaxxers. In pandering to those constituencies, the GOP makes it more difficult to win among Independents, suburban women, and college-educated voters. None of this should make Democrats believe that 2022 or 2024 will be easy, but all of it should give us confidence that there is a path to victory.

Concluding Thoughts.

It is difficult to listen to the venomous statements emanating from the hosts on Fox News. But we should recognize the outrageousness as a sign of desperation. Fox News is reduced to attacking police officers who were assaulted in the line of duty. While that tactic may resonate with some viewers, it will offend many officers and their families, as well as military personnel who know the effects of PTSD after combat. As with Trump, they cannot help but repel people because of the increasingly extremist views they must adopt to avoid Trump’s wrath. In the meantime, Joe Biden’s steady progress is on target to achieve successes in one year that eluded Trump for four years. It was a good day.

          Talk to you tomorrow!