Today’s Edition: Good news for the long term.

August 13, 2021

          It was an action-packed week in the Senate, with some good news for Democrats. Some commentators (including me) spend too much time noting the exceptions, nits, and future challenges implicit in Democratic victories. So, for a completely positive view of what just happened in the Senate, I recommend Eugene Robinson’s op-ed in the Washington Post, “Maybe it’s time for doubting Democrats to press pause on the angst.” Robinson begins,

          It’s time to entertain the possibility that President Biden, Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi actually know what they’re doing and are really good at their jobs.

          Robinson concludes,

          I, for one, am impressed. . . . Democrats, give yourself at least a few days to admire all that is being accomplished. For a change, take yes for an answer.

          Robinson believes that Speaker Pelosi has sufficient control over the Democratic caucus in the House to deliver on both the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the reconciliation resolution. Robinson is also cautiously optimistic that Democrats can make some progress on voter protection. (More about that in a minute.) For now, let’s take a minute to reflect on the fact that the Senate acted as a deliberative body and passed legislation that would normally be viewed as a landmark accomplishment for any president. The relative size of the infrastructure bill diminishes only in comparison to Biden’s ambitious agenda. If you are looking for a smooth glide-path into the weekend, Eugene Robinson is your pilot. No offense will be taken if you stop reading the newsletter here!

The Census

The Census Bureau released preliminary results for the 2020 census. The implications are vast and uncertain at the moment. One popular interpretation is that growth of Latino populations in red states will allow Republicans to gerrymander their way into a House majority in 2022. Maybe. It is also possible that the Senate could pass the “Manchin-lite” version of the For the People Act that would require non-partisan redistricting commissions. Eugene Robinson believes that outcome is not impossible. So, hope remains alive that voter reform will come to the rescue. Of course, we can always overcome gerrymandering with historic turnout. We did so in 2020.

          It is too early to panic or celebrate over the results of the 2020 census. But major trends in population growth appear to favor Democrats over the long term. An interesting analysis is included in The Hill, “Five takeaways from a groundbreaking census report.” Before considering The Hill’s analysis, let’s recognize that the GOP is embracing a white nationalist identity. Its most prominent and outspoken members openly promote (or tolerate) white nationalism (Paul Gosar, Mo Brooks, Andy Biggs, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert, Matt Gaetz, Kristi Noem, Greg Abbott, Ron Johnson, Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz—and Donald Trump.) Given that the GOP has tied its fortunes to white nationalism, consider The Hill’s top line results from the census:

• The white population is shrinking in absolute numbers (for the first time since 1790).

• Every state became more diverse over the last ten years.

• Minority groups are growing organically (without immigration)

• The suburbs are growing (rural areas are not)

• Population growth is slowing

          Each of the above factors suggests that Democrats have a built-in demographic advantage in the coming decades. (Note of caution: Democrats cannot take for granted support from the growing Latino population.) Republicans may be celebrating the short-term good news in the 2020 census that will enable them to gerrymander. But a sober assessment of the census should have GOP leadership wondering who will be left to turn off the lights when their burning platform of white nationalism collapses for lack of support.

The pandemic.

          There were three interesting developments in the GOP’s culture war against public health efforts to control the coronavirus. First, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis blinked in his stand-off with local school boards seeking to impose mask mandates. DeSantis withdrew his threat to cut the pay of local officials who disregard his ban on mask mandates. Justice Amy Coney Barrett rejected a request to block a vaccine mandate by Indiana University.  And the Supreme Court blocked a portion of New York’s eviction moratorium—but left standing that portion of the moratorium where a judge finds that a tenant has suffered economic hardship as the result of the pandemic.  

Each of these developments suggests that the GOP’s effort to exalt individual freedom over protection of public health is running up against the limits of logic, patience, and science. Good.

Help stop the recall effort in California

          California Governor Gavin Newsom is currently fighting a recall campaign initiated by Republicans who are seeking to exploit unhappiness over California’s early and strict shutdowns. The ballot will ask California voters two questions: (a) Should Governor Newsom be recalled, and (b) If so, who should be elected governor?

          For Californians, a guide to the election logistics and deadlines is contained in this helpful guide by Indivisible SF, “What you can do to stop the recall of Governor Newsom.” For Democrats, the most important point is to vote “NO” on the first question asking if Newsom should be recalled. A more complicated question is how Democrats should vote on the successor candidates—most of whom are objectionable Republicans.

          The potential recall of Newsom has national ramifications. Although the California legislature is solidly Democratic, a temporary Republican Governor would appoint a replacement U.S. Senator if a vacancy occurred in California’s Senate delegation. Diane Feinstein is the oldest Senator (88) in the Senate. Questions have been raised about her competency and health. See The New Yorker, “Dianne Feinstein’s Missteps Raise a Painful Age Question Among Senate Democrats.” If Democrats lose their majority in the Senate because of the Newsom recall, that would complicate (read: doom) Biden’s effort to appoint a Supreme Court justice if an opening occurs.

          The recall campaign has attracted the interest of Joe Biden. See The Hill, “Biden urges Californians to vote against effort to recall Newsom.” If you don’t live in California and want to help, the SF Indivisible guide above has plenty of opportunities to join phone banking. (The events are run in conjunction with Swing Left San Francisco, Swing Left Peninsula, the Contra Costa Democratic Party, and the San Mateo Democratic Party).

          I have heard (but haven’t been able to confirm) that PostCardsToVoters is running a “NO” on the recall campaign. Can someone from PCTV send me info about any campaign to stop the recall?

Local Actions.

          A reader sent a note about the importance of local activism. She noted that in “deep Red Prescott, Arizona, voters recently chose a centrist Republican as mayor, along with two progressive Democrats, who defeated a pair of Trumpists, for city council seats. Interestingly, the mayor-elect publicly congratulated the two Democrat councilors-elect, as part of his "working majority"-along with the Progressive Democrat who was elected to the council two years ago.  Times are interesting, all over.”

Concluding Thoughts.

          This weekend, my wife (a.k.a “Managing Editor) and I will celebrate our 40th wedding anniversary. She has been the blessing of my life and has shaped me into the person I am today. We have known each other our entire lives (we met in the 1st grade). We have experienced the joys and challenges of life together. This newsletter exists only because of her generosity of spirit and unflagging support for me and the newsletter. My wife publishes a daily blog; the last two editions (here and here) provide a retrospective of our forty years together.

          We will take a few moments from our busy lives this weekend to celebrate our milestone anniversary. We look forward to many more years together with our family, friends, and the many readers who have become part of our lives. We are honored to be by your side as we strive to preserve our democracy for future generations.

          Talk to you on Monday!