The wrong side of history and the electorate.

March 30, 2023

          Republicans effectively lost the 2022 midterm elections when they had every hope of achieving a landslide victory. Although it is impossible to pin the GOP’s failure on a single factor, the general lesson is that Republicans lost by adopting extreme positions and candidates. That lesson was lost on Republicans, who have doubled down on extreme positions in the six months following the midterms. Where Republicans have gerrymandered their way to supermajority control of state legislatures, they have wielded that power with vengeance as they force their minority agenda onto an unwilling and increasingly resentful majority.

          The GOP strategy is not a winning one over the long term. In the short term, however, it is dispiriting to be on the receiving end of legislation that is intentionally cruel and gleefully anti-democratic. But Republicans are violating the First Rule of Holes (“Stop digging”). As a result, their campaign of maliciousness is working to the benefit of Democrats in 2024. It is difficult to keep that hopeful fact in mind as we endure a seemingly endless stream of actions that simultaneously limit constitutional liberties, make us less safe, and attack the dignity of LGBTQ Americans.

          How can we know that Republicans are on the wrong side of history and the American electorate? The 2022 midterms are themselves prima facie evidence of that fact. Moreover, there were six ballot initiatives (including Kansas, Montana, and Kentucky) that involved the right to protect reproductive liberty. In all six elections, the voters chose reproductive liberty over state-sponsored interference in private decisions that belong to a woman and her doctor. When the people’s voices can be heard, they favor reproductive liberty. And yet, Republican politicians and legislatures are taking action this week to restrict reproductive liberty—including in Florida.

          This brings us to the “natural experiment” of Ron DeSantis’s effort to turn Florida into a religious dictatorship. DeSantis has staked his presidential hopes on channeling the right-wingiest ideas of right-wing extremism. If banning books and attacking LGBTQ people, and criminalizing abortion is the key to future success for the GOP, Ron DeSantis should be riding high. He is not. He is declining in the polls, despite running to the right of Trump on many social issues—including abortion. But in the last sixty days, Trump has widened his lead over DeSantis significantly.

          There are, of course, many factors that contributed to DeSantis’s stumbling in the polls. But his efforts to ban LGBTQ people, outlaw abortion, and erase Black history negatively correlate to his electoral prospects—as should be expected. Americans broadly support reproductive liberty, LGBTQ rights, banning assault weapons, and being “woke.” DeSantis is adopting extreme positions because he believes they will propel him to the presidency. To date, that calculus is demonstrably wrong.

          As we watch DeSantis deny rights to the citizens of Florida, we are also witnessing his likely demise. That does not ease the pain for the objects of discrimination and abrogation of rights in Florida, but it should give us hope that we will be able to reverse the damage inflicted during this period of GOP-gerrymandered illegitimacy. And that sentiment applies beyond DeSantis and Florida; it applies more broadly to large swaths of America where Republican politicians are badly out-of-step with their constituents.

          And now, for my point: Today’s news brought many disconcerting reports of Republican politicians and legislatures restricting reproductive freedom to the point of forced pregnancy, expanding gun rights to the point of anarchy, and discriminating against transgender people to the point of inhumanity. I list some of those actions below—but not to bemoan our fate. I list them to argue that Republicans are sowing the seeds of their defeat in 2024. Each of the actions is wildly out of step with the sentiments of the American people. So, take heart and remain strong. We are on the right side of history and the American electorate.

• Senator Tommy Tuberville has blocked the promotions of dozens of senior military officers because the Department of Defense grants women in the military the ability to travel to a state that permits abortion if they are stationed in a state that prohibits it.

• The Florida legislature will vote on Wednesday to impose a six-week abortion ban.

• Idaho just passed a law making it a crime to provide travel assistance to a pregnant minor seeking an abortion.

• North Carolina just removed the ability of sheriffs to deny gun permits based on criminal background checks, signs of mental illness, domestic abuse incidents, or other indications that a person could be a danger to themselves or others.

• After refusing last month to restrict the ability of children to carry guns without a permit or supervision on public property, Missouri legislators are now considering a bill to allow the concealed carry of weapons into places of worship.

• The GOP-controlled legislature in Kentucky overrode Democratic Governor Andy Beshear’s veto of a bill that would deny gender-affirming treatment to transgender people.

          As I said, these bills are intentionally cruel and gleefully anti-democratic. Add to that description, “Badly out of step with the sentiments of the American people.” When statewide offices are on the ballot in 2024, Democrats can turn the tide against the GOP onslaught of hate and lawlessness. That trend was strong in 2022 but just missed sweeping Republicans out of national prominence. Let’s not miss our chance in 2024.

More conflicts of interest generated by Ginni Thomas.

          The Washington Post has published an investigative article regarding anonymous donations to a stealth organization that existed “off the books” of a conservative think tank. The details of the arrangements are mind-numbing—deliberately so. Ginni Thomas was at the center of the ghost organization, but it is impossible to determine whether and to what extent Ginni Thomas profited from her role. See WaPo, Activist group led by Ginni Thomas received nearly $600,000 in anonymous donations.

           The Post reveals that the organization led by Thomas never formally incorporated, collected about $600,000 in (mostly) anonymous donations, and has accounted to no one for the money. At least one group that donated money to Gini Thomas’s organization later filed an amicus brief in the Supreme Court. Ginni Thomas’s attorney claims she had no idea that the donor organization filed a brief that would have been read by her husband, Justice Clarence Thomas.

          The overlap between the political activism, money-raising activities, and appearances before the Supreme Court by donors and clients of Ginni Thomas is a scandal and an open wound on the Supreme Court’s legitimacy. John Roberts is incapable of controlling the Court, so it is up to Congress to do so.

          But . . . in a victory achieved by the dogged oversight of Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (and others), the Administrative Office of the United States Courts has closed a loophole used by Justices to accept free travel from corporations, businesses, and other entities.

          The Supreme Court Justices had apparently taken the view that an invitation for free travel and lodging was “personal” (and therefore exempt from reporting) if the invitation was extended by a “person”—e.g., the CEO of Exxon. Under revised regulations by the Administrative Office, any travel or lodging at any commercial establishment or at the invitation of an “entity” must be reported, even if the invitation is extended by a person representing the entity. See Reuters, US Supreme Court justices get tougher rules for reporting free trips, gifts. (The ‘personal’ nature of ‘personal hospitality’ is not determined by the invitation being delivered personally, but by the personal nature of the judge’s relationship with the host.)

Manhattan Grand Jury takes a break for religious holidays and school vacations.

          The Manhattan grand jury investigating Donald Trump is reportedly scheduled to take a four-week recess starting next week. The recess overlaps with Easter, the Jewish observance of Passover, and spring break at schools. The holidays and spring break would have made it difficult for the grand jury to assemble during the four-week period. See NY grand jury investigating Trump will break for most of April, source says | CNN Politics.

          Separately, the Manhattan D.A.’s office is leaking badly—at least if you credit organizations that will print statements from anonymous sources without corroboration. See Raw Story, Manhattan DA insiders fear Trump may skate if indicted for Stormy Daniels payments: report.

          While Trump created a baseless expectation that he would be arrested last week, the delay and continued leaking by sources within the D.A.’s office are not good signs for the investigation. The D.A.’s case to the grand jury is being played out in public, converting a low threshold proceeding into a mini-trial of Trump’s ultimate guilt or innocence—which is not the grand jury’s role.

          Those concerns would disappear if Jack Smith or Fani Willis indicted Trump. Is that too much to ask? After all, the guy did try to prevent the peaceful transfer of power by summoning a violent mob.

Damning new details about deliberate lies by Fox News.

          Media Matters has obtained a trove of material from the Dominion Voting Systems defamation case against Fox Corp. See Media Matters for America, New details in Dominion suit reveal damning evidence of deception in Fox News’ 2020 election coverage.

          The most damning revelation is that Fox CEO Suzanne Scott said that “This has got to stop now,” when fact-checking revealed that Fox hosts were spreading baseless lies to Fox viewers. In context, the email shows that Scott wanted the “fact-checking” to stop, not the spreading of baseless lies.

          Another damning revelation is that Tucker Carlson’s production team concluded that “My Pillow Guy” Mike Lindell (a frequent guest on Carlson) was “definitely crazy [but] has bailed us out loads of times when no one else would [with ads].”

          The Media Matters article delves into great detail that removes all doubt about the Fox News hosts’ rejection of the Big Lie—despite their efforts to promote that lie to their viewers. Check out the article!

Concluding Thoughts.

          They know they are on the wrong side of history and the American electorate. Speaker Kevin McCarthy has spent the last 72-hours refusing to comment on the Tennessee school shooting. What kind of coward can’t even summon the decency to express sympathy for the victims?

          When McCarthy was finally caught in a hallway by reporters and forced to say something, he said that “We need to get the facts” before considering legislation to ban assault rifles. Pathetic. McCarthy knows the facts; he knew them before Tennessee, before Monterey Park, before Robb Elementary School, before Highland Park, before Hartland . . . . McCarthy doesn’t need “more facts.” He needs a conscience and a heart.

          They know. And they know that the public is against them. They are rushing to do their worst before they are stripped of power. That day is coming. The tide is shifting. Be part of the tide.

          Talk to you tomorrow.