Women everywhere, blue states, red states - rise up and vote Dems. And all the men who support them. Winding back the clock on women's rights, minority rights cannot stand.
Apr 14, 2023·edited Apr 14, 2023Liked by Robert B. Hubbell
Those "simple things," Bob, depend on the following:
1. Filibuster careout not doable until January 2025, and ONLY doable then if the following are achieved - bearing in mind that 2024 is a dangerous election cycle for Democrats in the Senate, since the majority of Senators running are Democrats:
a. Manchin is likely toast in VA, so find a vulnerable R to pick off for replacement (not easy - and if he won he wouldn't vote for a carveout - so still need a GOP flip)
b. Keep Montana and Ohio, the other two states that went majority Trump in 2016 and 2020. (again, doable since Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown are solid candidates, but not easy)
c. Defeat Sinema in AZ and get Reuben Gallego in as Senator - not easy in a 3-way race.
d. Keep every other Democratic Senator running (a biiiiig order)
e. Flip at least one other R senate seat (not easy)
The Republican senate seats that are up are in pretty safe-R states, so flipping is going to be hard, andl likely the best likelihood of doing tall of the above and flipping R seats is strong pro-choice campaigns targeting Republicans as anti-choice. And a Biden victory at the top of the ticket with hopes for "coattails."
2024 is going to be harder than 2020 and 2022 COMBINED.
And expanding the court isn't going to happen until there are 60 D Senators (which hasn't been possible since 2008). It's the furthest thing from "easy."
Not saying it can't be done, but your solution to the problems - which is correct - is very very very far from "easy."
It's a good thing to lift our eyes now and then and focus on the path forward. And then we need to look back down and prepare for the next first step. Write a postcard, make a donation; help a young person register to vote, post a positive news story about Biden/Democratic accomplishments. The way forward, as Simon Rosenberg says, is to Get to 55.
And the important thing we have to remember along the way, is that all the infuriating things MAGA extremists are doing, are signs of extreme desperation. They KNOW that what they're doing is deeply unpopular, and they're facing the near certainty of being kicked to the curb. They should learn from this and change what they're doing, but their desperation forces them to doubledown.
This works to our advantage. It WILL come around right, if we keep our focus.
I think we should all be calling for Thomas' resignation in a loud voice! This is an opportunity to have one less radical judge and we should use it! How do we do this?
You are on the right path about the Supreme Court. You got my vote.
And then....we should expand the House of Reps (after the gerrymandering has been trashed).
And then....let's examine why the Senate is structured the way it is. Why should states with populations of only a million or less have such overwhelming power? Sorry, Idaho, but California shouldn't suffer the whims of your Senators. Same with Maine and New York. The origins of this institution are based on the idea that the "founders" were afraid of pure democracy. It's a bogus arrangement that allows a few fringe folks to hobble our nation - to hold back progress on everything from human rights to the survival of the planet.
I never thought of Justice Clarence Thomas and his wife and political party as Nazi memorabilia, before, to be collected by a rich fascist donor. Silly me.
"Five more seats in the Senate and recapturing the House is all it will take, along with retaining the presidency." in 2024, retaining the Presidency and regaining the House are reasonable goals. The Senate is a challenge. '
Before we can think about flipping Republican Senate seats, we have nine Senate seats to protect: Montana, Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Michigan (listed in order of vulnerability in my opinion). New Mexico, Minnesota, and Michigan are probably pretty safe.
Are there vulnerable Republicans? Missouri and Texas, maybe. Unlikely circumstances could make Utah or Mississippi vulnerable. But those circumstances are extremely unlikely. The best we can hope for in 2024 is a perfect defense (which is not out of the question) and to squeeze out one more Republican seat. (Len's Political Notes)
This country was founded by people trying to get away from being persecuted for what they believed in. Now we have people in this country persecuting others for what they believe is right, the right of women to have control over their own bodies, the right of all people to feel comfortable in their own bodies. Those promoters/persecutors are the radicals blindly forcing laws onto an unwilling majority. They are the modern day Nazis. And they’ll fail like all of them do but not before inflicting pain on the powerless.
Voters across the country are not paying enough attention to three events happening right now that could have severe consequential impacts on the citizens of our country. Ron DeSantis is giving us a preview of what government looks like under his watch which is restricting voter rights, what we and our children are able to read and when someone can get an abortion if at all. The Fifth circuit ruling as Robert has detailed demonstrates what happens when MAGA is in power and appoints judges who frankly substitute racial and religious beliefs in place of the laws and finally Clarence Thomas abuse of political contributions and patronage because the Supreme Court has no structure and enforcement of ethics. All three of these events impact our everyday lives. Expanding the Supreme Court will only result in whatever party is in power doing the doing the same thing and it will become a circus. We need more Tennessee Three individuals and we need to rally Generation Z to define the country they want to live in.
For some more hopeful news: "The Court is likely to reject the Independent State Legislature Theory," writes J. Michael Luttig in the Atlantic. Due to its detailed legalese, I have only read about a third of the article so far, but it's the best good news I could come up with today. Judge Luttig takes into account the results of the '22 election where Republicans gained a 5-2 majority in their state supreme court.
Women everywhere, blue states, red states - rise up and vote Dems. And all the men who support them. Winding back the clock on women's rights, minority rights cannot stand.
Those "simple things," Bob, depend on the following:
1. Filibuster careout not doable until January 2025, and ONLY doable then if the following are achieved - bearing in mind that 2024 is a dangerous election cycle for Democrats in the Senate, since the majority of Senators running are Democrats:
a. Manchin is likely toast in VA, so find a vulnerable R to pick off for replacement (not easy - and if he won he wouldn't vote for a carveout - so still need a GOP flip)
b. Keep Montana and Ohio, the other two states that went majority Trump in 2016 and 2020. (again, doable since Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown are solid candidates, but not easy)
c. Defeat Sinema in AZ and get Reuben Gallego in as Senator - not easy in a 3-way race.
d. Keep every other Democratic Senator running (a biiiiig order)
e. Flip at least one other R senate seat (not easy)
The Republican senate seats that are up are in pretty safe-R states, so flipping is going to be hard, andl likely the best likelihood of doing tall of the above and flipping R seats is strong pro-choice campaigns targeting Republicans as anti-choice. And a Biden victory at the top of the ticket with hopes for "coattails."
2024 is going to be harder than 2020 and 2022 COMBINED.
And expanding the court isn't going to happen until there are 60 D Senators (which hasn't been possible since 2008). It's the furthest thing from "easy."
Not saying it can't be done, but your solution to the problems - which is correct - is very very very far from "easy."
It's a good thing to lift our eyes now and then and focus on the path forward. And then we need to look back down and prepare for the next first step. Write a postcard, make a donation; help a young person register to vote, post a positive news story about Biden/Democratic accomplishments. The way forward, as Simon Rosenberg says, is to Get to 55.
And the important thing we have to remember along the way, is that all the infuriating things MAGA extremists are doing, are signs of extreme desperation. They KNOW that what they're doing is deeply unpopular, and they're facing the near certainty of being kicked to the curb. They should learn from this and change what they're doing, but their desperation forces them to doubledown.
This works to our advantage. It WILL come around right, if we keep our focus.
I think we should all be calling for Thomas' resignation in a loud voice! This is an opportunity to have one less radical judge and we should use it! How do we do this?
So what’s next for Judge Kacsmaryk? Does he ban the little blue pill too? Or does that hit too close to home? I guess Originalism only works one way.
Thank you for staying calm and hopeful during this discouraging time. It's so helpful to read about a realistic plan for positive change.
You are on the right path about the Supreme Court. You got my vote.
And then....we should expand the House of Reps (after the gerrymandering has been trashed).
And then....let's examine why the Senate is structured the way it is. Why should states with populations of only a million or less have such overwhelming power? Sorry, Idaho, but California shouldn't suffer the whims of your Senators. Same with Maine and New York. The origins of this institution are based on the idea that the "founders" were afraid of pure democracy. It's a bogus arrangement that allows a few fringe folks to hobble our nation - to hold back progress on everything from human rights to the survival of the planet.
I never thought of Justice Clarence Thomas and his wife and political party as Nazi memorabilia, before, to be collected by a rich fascist donor. Silly me.
At the very least we need 11 justices...one for each of the 11 circuits...I find it hard to argue with that reasoning.
I agree, Robert: concentrate on the path forward.
"Five more seats in the Senate and recapturing the House is all it will take, along with retaining the presidency." in 2024, retaining the Presidency and regaining the House are reasonable goals. The Senate is a challenge. '
Before we can think about flipping Republican Senate seats, we have nine Senate seats to protect: Montana, Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Michigan (listed in order of vulnerability in my opinion). New Mexico, Minnesota, and Michigan are probably pretty safe.
Are there vulnerable Republicans? Missouri and Texas, maybe. Unlikely circumstances could make Utah or Mississippi vulnerable. But those circumstances are extremely unlikely. The best we can hope for in 2024 is a perfect defense (which is not out of the question) and to squeeze out one more Republican seat. (Len's Political Notes)
Damn well Vote and register people please
This country was founded by people trying to get away from being persecuted for what they believed in. Now we have people in this country persecuting others for what they believe is right, the right of women to have control over their own bodies, the right of all people to feel comfortable in their own bodies. Those promoters/persecutors are the radicals blindly forcing laws onto an unwilling majority. They are the modern day Nazis. And they’ll fail like all of them do but not before inflicting pain on the powerless.
Voters across the country are not paying enough attention to three events happening right now that could have severe consequential impacts on the citizens of our country. Ron DeSantis is giving us a preview of what government looks like under his watch which is restricting voter rights, what we and our children are able to read and when someone can get an abortion if at all. The Fifth circuit ruling as Robert has detailed demonstrates what happens when MAGA is in power and appoints judges who frankly substitute racial and religious beliefs in place of the laws and finally Clarence Thomas abuse of political contributions and patronage because the Supreme Court has no structure and enforcement of ethics. All three of these events impact our everyday lives. Expanding the Supreme Court will only result in whatever party is in power doing the doing the same thing and it will become a circus. We need more Tennessee Three individuals and we need to rally Generation Z to define the country they want to live in.
For some more hopeful news: "The Court is likely to reject the Independent State Legislature Theory," writes J. Michael Luttig in the Atlantic. Due to its detailed legalese, I have only read about a third of the article so far, but it's the best good news I could come up with today. Judge Luttig takes into account the results of the '22 election where Republicans gained a 5-2 majority in their state supreme court.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/04/independent-state-legislature-theory-moore-harper/673690/?
Highlighting our path forward is so helpful. Thank you, Robert.