I posted the following on my personal Facebook profile immediately after reading the Times poll headline: "Upset about the new NYT poll that points to a real possibility that Donald Trump could become the next president? Don't obsess, panic, complain, compartmentalize, bemoan. GET TO WORK. I'm happy to help anyone find impactful ways to help between now and 11/5. Just email me at info@indivisiblemarin.org if you'd like any guidance on ways that YOUR ACTIONS can help change the outcome."
As readers of Robert's blog, you all are incredibly engaged, informed and caring. THIS ELECTION WILL BE WON OR LOST BY THE MARGIN OF EFFORT. If you are not already volunteering time on a regular basis to do direct voter outreach work - phonebanks, canvassing, postcards, texting - please start right away and make it a PRACTICE until 11/5. Here's a 2 minute video of me talking to the volunteers at IndiMarin about a good way to turn our volunteering for Dems into a practice, a discipline, that will help keep us all consistent in our efforts over the course of the year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XI4QnIjtRww
We can win this. But it will take all of us. As Max Lucado said, "No one can do everything, but everyone can do something.”
First off, "Small" is a kind description for a poll of this complexity. The poll interviews 128 Hispanic and 108 Blacks to make the assertion that Biden is somehow losing those voter groups. Ridiculous in the extreme. Imagine you were the chief marketing exec for a consumer product company. Your basic product was purchased by 175 million Americans. You had to decide if the label on the product should be Blue or Red. You have a $500 million marketing budget to allocate across the US. Is there any version of reality in which you would poll just 128 Hispanic consumers and 108 Black consumers to decide how to target your advertising? If Nate Cohn was your pollster, he'd be fired and the Sienna polling org would be dropped...........................................
The NYTs should stop reporting their mini polling data as anything other than the view of 980 Americans, unrepresentative of voters as a whole.
Replacing Biden, the best president we've had since LBJ pre-Vietnam, based on results deliver would be a catastrophe. Entertainers like Ezra Klein or John Stewart or arrogant analysts like Nate Cohn, regardless of the size of their egos, do not get to "appoint" presidents. Voters do. The best revenge against the Biden nay-sayers is to elect Biden in 2024.
Robert, I don’t know how many times you have stated that polls, especially the ones taken early, are to be ignored. I never look at them because they are always skewed mostly because their sample questions are terrible and their sample size is not big enough. I really think you’ve made your point about them enough. Just my opinion.
NYT just does not want to give Biden any leeway. I also think readership has decreased to the point that the editors obsess over whether the titles to their stories will cause enough mayhem to bring them revenue. All I know is that Trump had a very pathetic showing in tonight’s primary and I couldn’t be happier. It won’t last, of course, but it was nice.
Tomorrow is Scotus Time. Let’s see if they screw Trump or us. I will put some cents towards US!
I have not been upset by the poll, because I deleted it after reading the headline. I do not trust the NYT coverage of this election, and honestly, it has impacted the way I look at every topic they cover now. I read yesterday a discussion of an in house debate at the NYT on a piece covering Hamas weaponizing sexual violence, which was leaked to The Intercept. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/new-york-times-israel-gaza-leak
This is the concern I have about the NYT at this point. They are not up to coverage of the big issues of the day. This election is the most important in our lifetimes, for the USA and the planet. The NYT is not covering it with the appropriate urgency. I feel like the Russian bots have taken over at the Times.
I saw the Times poll headline and didn't bother to read. I knew you'd have a great takedown of it, Mr. Hubbell, so I waited. Thank you, again. The NYT has gone off the rails. What a shame. Now when people say you can't believe MSM, which I've always deplored, I can't help but think of the Times. How's that for a twist?
In addition to all that Robert says here about the recent NYT poll, consider this:
Only 823 potential voters nation-wide completed the full survey. If evenly distributed, that's 16.5 voters per state. If weighted by population, 98 respondents would represent all of California and 2 would represent all of Wyoming.
There were over 154 million voters in the 2020 election. A little basic arithmetic reveals that the survey questioned .0005 of 1% of the number of actual voters in 2020. It's absurd to suggest that some magic formula can correctly identify the demographic of any one person who accurately represents 187,000 others.
If even a half-dozen respondents are mis-identified, that represents a shift of over a million votes. This is nonsense.
Thank you for the take-down of the NYT/Siena poll and the other tidbits of our reality, Robert. I pasted a clip of your first example of that on Heather's tonight to refere so many of those wringing their hands over it to read what you had to say.
I confess the NYT poll irritated me a lot. To work out frustration, so I could get back on a positive track, I wrote a sparky letter to the editor. Then I decided to submit it, even though I know it won't be published. (It will be read by someone. )
I offer it here for your amusement:
To the Editor:
Sunday’s article “Warning Lights Flash for Biden, Times Poll Finds” increases concerns about The New York Times’ age. At 172 years, it seems to struggle covering 21st century elections.
As the Times doubles down on polls with relatively small samples, taken many months before the election, some wonder whether it’s time to guide the publication – lovingly and respectfully – off the political centerstage. Relying on survey responses from those who answer a telephone, while failing to discuss impacts of polls’ margins of error, suggests a newspaper sadly out of touch.
Some saw warning signs in Times news coverage, which focuses on vintage horse-race reporting in an increasingly complex election landscape. Virtually ignoring grassroots political activists and downplaying support for Biden in Democratic voting, the paper over-emphasizes Trump’s primary wins and minimizes possible effects of his flame-throwing rhetoric and criminal indictments.
But polls are where the paper’s age really shows. And when predictions fall short, the Times acts forgetful and confused.
At the end of the next presidential term, the Times will be pushing 180. More and more readers may wonder if this newspaper is just too old to be an effective source of political news.
Two days in a row upper right hand corner of the NYT the headline blasting out anti-Biden bias. I attempted to cancel before and will try again. They must be desperate to hold on to customers. I am embarrassed to have this on my doorstep.
It’s only value to me is that I recycle them to the SPCA where they shred them to line areas for dogs to shit on. Seems so fitting!
As much as I try to stay focused and involved in preserving democracy this is so defeating. How did we become a nation where a major newspaper has no shame about its bias. Years ago I couldn’t wait to read many of their columnists but now I have no respect for anyone associated with this rag and with other forms of corporate media.
I cancelled my NY Times subscription yesterday and gave the reason that their reporting in general is biased against Biden and favored controversy for the sake of controversy. Specifically, the polling story was the last straw.
I took Robert’s advice from long ago and ignore the polls... the information about Hunter Biden and the fact that Robert slogged through lots of the testimony (239 Pages??) tells me Robert is super human and once again, the MSM has failed at every aspect of their jobs. Postcards, texts await... onward!
Robert, the NYT poll could have asked an analogous question regarding Trump to the NYT Biden question: "Is Biden just too old?". It would be: "Is Trump just too corrupt?".
I posted the following on my personal Facebook profile immediately after reading the Times poll headline: "Upset about the new NYT poll that points to a real possibility that Donald Trump could become the next president? Don't obsess, panic, complain, compartmentalize, bemoan. GET TO WORK. I'm happy to help anyone find impactful ways to help between now and 11/5. Just email me at info@indivisiblemarin.org if you'd like any guidance on ways that YOUR ACTIONS can help change the outcome."
As readers of Robert's blog, you all are incredibly engaged, informed and caring. THIS ELECTION WILL BE WON OR LOST BY THE MARGIN OF EFFORT. If you are not already volunteering time on a regular basis to do direct voter outreach work - phonebanks, canvassing, postcards, texting - please start right away and make it a PRACTICE until 11/5. Here's a 2 minute video of me talking to the volunteers at IndiMarin about a good way to turn our volunteering for Dems into a practice, a discipline, that will help keep us all consistent in our efforts over the course of the year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XI4QnIjtRww
We can win this. But it will take all of us. As Max Lucado said, "No one can do everything, but everyone can do something.”
First off, "Small" is a kind description for a poll of this complexity. The poll interviews 128 Hispanic and 108 Blacks to make the assertion that Biden is somehow losing those voter groups. Ridiculous in the extreme. Imagine you were the chief marketing exec for a consumer product company. Your basic product was purchased by 175 million Americans. You had to decide if the label on the product should be Blue or Red. You have a $500 million marketing budget to allocate across the US. Is there any version of reality in which you would poll just 128 Hispanic consumers and 108 Black consumers to decide how to target your advertising? If Nate Cohn was your pollster, he'd be fired and the Sienna polling org would be dropped...........................................
The NYTs should stop reporting their mini polling data as anything other than the view of 980 Americans, unrepresentative of voters as a whole.
Replacing Biden, the best president we've had since LBJ pre-Vietnam, based on results deliver would be a catastrophe. Entertainers like Ezra Klein or John Stewart or arrogant analysts like Nate Cohn, regardless of the size of their egos, do not get to "appoint" presidents. Voters do. The best revenge against the Biden nay-sayers is to elect Biden in 2024.
Robert, I don’t know how many times you have stated that polls, especially the ones taken early, are to be ignored. I never look at them because they are always skewed mostly because their sample questions are terrible and their sample size is not big enough. I really think you’ve made your point about them enough. Just my opinion.
NYT just does not want to give Biden any leeway. I also think readership has decreased to the point that the editors obsess over whether the titles to their stories will cause enough mayhem to bring them revenue. All I know is that Trump had a very pathetic showing in tonight’s primary and I couldn’t be happier. It won’t last, of course, but it was nice.
Tomorrow is Scotus Time. Let’s see if they screw Trump or us. I will put some cents towards US!
I have not been upset by the poll, because I deleted it after reading the headline. I do not trust the NYT coverage of this election, and honestly, it has impacted the way I look at every topic they cover now. I read yesterday a discussion of an in house debate at the NYT on a piece covering Hamas weaponizing sexual violence, which was leaked to The Intercept. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/new-york-times-israel-gaza-leak
This is the concern I have about the NYT at this point. They are not up to coverage of the big issues of the day. This election is the most important in our lifetimes, for the USA and the planet. The NYT is not covering it with the appropriate urgency. I feel like the Russian bots have taken over at the Times.
I saw the Times poll headline and didn't bother to read. I knew you'd have a great takedown of it, Mr. Hubbell, so I waited. Thank you, again. The NYT has gone off the rails. What a shame. Now when people say you can't believe MSM, which I've always deplored, I can't help but think of the Times. How's that for a twist?
Excellent!
Ever since The Great Polling Debacle of 2016 I ignore poll results and I urge others to do the same.
There are lies, damn lies, statistics, and then there are polls. Apologies to Samuel Clemens.
I am giving up on the NYT. Their reporting and polling is increasingly suspect. I don’t know what has happened over there but it isn’t good….
In addition to all that Robert says here about the recent NYT poll, consider this:
Only 823 potential voters nation-wide completed the full survey. If evenly distributed, that's 16.5 voters per state. If weighted by population, 98 respondents would represent all of California and 2 would represent all of Wyoming.
There were over 154 million voters in the 2020 election. A little basic arithmetic reveals that the survey questioned .0005 of 1% of the number of actual voters in 2020. It's absurd to suggest that some magic formula can correctly identify the demographic of any one person who accurately represents 187,000 others.
If even a half-dozen respondents are mis-identified, that represents a shift of over a million votes. This is nonsense.
.
Thank you for the take-down of the NYT/Siena poll and the other tidbits of our reality, Robert. I pasted a clip of your first example of that on Heather's tonight to refere so many of those wringing their hands over it to read what you had to say.
Safe trip home, and I'll look for you tomorrow.
I confess the NYT poll irritated me a lot. To work out frustration, so I could get back on a positive track, I wrote a sparky letter to the editor. Then I decided to submit it, even though I know it won't be published. (It will be read by someone. )
I offer it here for your amusement:
To the Editor:
Sunday’s article “Warning Lights Flash for Biden, Times Poll Finds” increases concerns about The New York Times’ age. At 172 years, it seems to struggle covering 21st century elections.
As the Times doubles down on polls with relatively small samples, taken many months before the election, some wonder whether it’s time to guide the publication – lovingly and respectfully – off the political centerstage. Relying on survey responses from those who answer a telephone, while failing to discuss impacts of polls’ margins of error, suggests a newspaper sadly out of touch.
Some saw warning signs in Times news coverage, which focuses on vintage horse-race reporting in an increasingly complex election landscape. Virtually ignoring grassroots political activists and downplaying support for Biden in Democratic voting, the paper over-emphasizes Trump’s primary wins and minimizes possible effects of his flame-throwing rhetoric and criminal indictments.
But polls are where the paper’s age really shows. And when predictions fall short, the Times acts forgetful and confused.
At the end of the next presidential term, the Times will be pushing 180. More and more readers may wonder if this newspaper is just too old to be an effective source of political news.
Two days in a row upper right hand corner of the NYT the headline blasting out anti-Biden bias. I attempted to cancel before and will try again. They must be desperate to hold on to customers. I am embarrassed to have this on my doorstep.
It’s only value to me is that I recycle them to the SPCA where they shred them to line areas for dogs to shit on. Seems so fitting!
As much as I try to stay focused and involved in preserving democracy this is so defeating. How did we become a nation where a major newspaper has no shame about its bias. Years ago I couldn’t wait to read many of their columnists but now I have no respect for anyone associated with this rag and with other forms of corporate media.
I cancelled my NY Times subscription yesterday and gave the reason that their reporting in general is biased against Biden and favored controversy for the sake of controversy. Specifically, the polling story was the last straw.
I took Robert’s advice from long ago and ignore the polls... the information about Hunter Biden and the fact that Robert slogged through lots of the testimony (239 Pages??) tells me Robert is super human and once again, the MSM has failed at every aspect of their jobs. Postcards, texts await... onward!
Robert, the NYT poll could have asked an analogous question regarding Trump to the NYT Biden question: "Is Biden just too old?". It would be: "Is Trump just too corrupt?".
All Democratic candidates should congratulate spring '24 graduates, remind them to register, to vote and ask for volunteers. Gen Z can save us.