The next six months.

May 5, 2024

A short essay to begin the week.

We are only six months away from permanently ridding ourselves of the troublesome Donald Trump. The general election will take place on November 5, 2024. Defeating Trump at the polls for a second time will end his presidential aspirations. To be sure, his defeat will not end the scourge of MAGA extremism, but it will mark the ‘beginning of the end’ of the reactionary convulsion that has been three generations in the making. The high-water mark of the MAGA movement is in the past; we need only drive our advantage home to inaugurate a new era of progress toward a more perfect union, one that is steeped in tolerance, liberty, and equality.

Oddly, the biggest challenge we face is convincing others of the threat Trump poses to our democracy. That challenge seems ridiculous on its face, considering that Trump tells us daily about his dark aspirations. There is no artifice or misdirection in Trump's plans. He wants to be a dictator. He has said so repeatedly. He said he wants to “terminate” portions of the Constitution. He is again refusing to abide by lawful election results. His campaign speeches are filled with admiration and affection for dictators and tyrants across the globe. He is melting into a slag of vengeance, impotence, and incoherence before our eyes.

Yes, the presidential race will be close and hard-fought, but the advantage is ours. Momentum has shifted to President Biden despite the challenges in the Middle East and on college campuses. Opinion polls are noisy to the point of opacity. But their opaqueness doesn’t stop mercenary pundits from using poorly designed polls to mislead the public. In truth, the polls—taken as a whole--show a trend: Biden’s favorability is rising over time and his chances for victory rise with turnout.

If we cannot discern the obvious lesson from those trends, we are unworthy of our democracy. Turnout will determine the outcome of the 2024 election. We can increase turnout. It is that simple—and that challenging.

Republicans continue to focus on suppressing turnout because they know Trump's only hope for victory lies in the hands of the American political party known as “Did not vote.” The GOP's reliance on suppressing the vote tells us all we need to know about the dark vision and dim future of the Republican Party. Its prospects as a party increase as the consent of the governed diminish to nothingness.

But the same facts teach us a powerful lesson about the prospects of the Democratic Party: When more people vote, Democrats do better at the ballot box. And when Democrats do better at the ballot box, Americans do better at home, at work, and in their communities. Turnout in 2024 will determine the future of our democracy.

The 2024 elections will be hard-fought. But we can see the end in sight. A widespread victory at the federal and state levels would be glorious. With that hopeful thought firmly in mind, we must resolve to power through the next six months. Ignore polls (in isolation) and do not fret over the electoral impact of each new crisis. Instead, focus on the hard work of electing Democrats up and down the ballot. That simple but revolutionary act will allow us to redeem democracy once again—something we must do every four years.

It will be a busy week, dominated by the sordidness and corruption of Trump's trial. Try to see beyond the next witness and maintain focus on our goal: Victory in November.

The next six months will be the most challenging of our lives—since the last six months, and the six months before that, and so on—stretching back in time to November 2016. You get the point. We have a track record of success and are more than up to the task. As always, we have every reason to be hopeful but no reason to be complacent!

Talk to you tomorrow!