I support Roe v. Wade. I also believe that there is a range of opinions, thoughtful opinions, on whether there should be ANY limits on abortion.
I believe Dems can be most effective in fighting this if they focus on the extremism of this decision. We're already living this extremism in Texas. One small step is in writing about this issue, I think the writer should always include "children," as what has happened to child rape victims is truly barbaric. I'm urging reports to do this. An example is a modification of one of Robert's beautiful sentences:
The question that matters is whether the Court preserves or revokes the constitutional right of women to control their destinies and reproductive choices AND PARENTS TO SEEK MEDICAL CARE FOR THEIR CHILDREN AFTER A RAPE.
In Texas, NOW, we have child rape victims forced to carry their pregnancies to term. We have forced births in unimaginably tragic situations where the best decision has been removed from the hands of mothers, fathers, doctors, pastors.
I can understand questioning a late term abortion of a perfectly healthy child--I'm not expressing an agreement or disagreement--I'm just saying I can understand that position.
But what we're seeing in Texas, and what the SC is getting ready to unleash, is barbaric.
And, I think if Dems and all will take a giant step backwards, and focus on the opinion that government has the right to judge and criminalize what is happening in privacy in our homes and medical choices, we can further get people on board to vote no. What I do in my home that doesn't hurt me or others, cannot ever be judged by white men in power. They won't be judging and punishing the wealthy because they will be relying on those huge donations.
I agree with everything you state here. It seems to me that Dems should also emphasize that they do NOT advocate abortion on demand at any stage. Repubs have consistently accused liberals of advocating abortion at any time.
Hi Robert- I know there is a lot going on with the Court but several articles discuss the fact that the majority of its members were nominated by Presidents who were elected by a minority of citizens. Who is working to eliminate the Electoral College??? It’s always discussed during and after elections but then everyone forgets about it. I believe it is the source of many ills and should be one of our top issues. Thoughts? Thanks, Jeanne McGinnis
Hi, Jeanne. Elimination of the electoral college would require approval by 2/3 vote in Congress and ratification by 3/4 of the states. That will never happen because the small states will lose virtually all of their voting power ( except in the Senate) that they currently enjoy in presidential elections. There is a movement for states to agree to an interstate compact in which state legislatures agree to commit their electors to the popular vote winner. If enough states agreed to that compact, that would effectively override the electoral college. However, that proposal has constitutional problems. Congress must approve interstate compacts, and the arrangement would effectively amend the constitution without securing ratification by 3/4 of the states. So, I hate to say it, but we are stuck with the electoral college. The solution is to avoid narrow election victories so that the results are not subject to manipulation.
Thank you for the thorough, though depressing, reply. You’re right - I guess working against voter suppression and getting out the vote is most important!
I think I said it yesterday that I hate understanding that the swing states determine our elections. And, that is due to the electoral votes these states give. Democratic and Republican candidates alike have been known to focus on only these states when champaining.
Vote Forward is a great letter writing organization. In the last election I sent 200 letters to democratic leaning people in Georgia , many who did not normally vote, and 2 Democrats won the Senate seats.
I did multiple letters thru the aegis of Vote Forward in 2020 and have already done 50 postcards for this year for the Progressive Turn Out Project in my state of NH due 5/31/22. I have 200 postcards for Vote Forward for November.
Me too; direct canvassing doesn't work for me as I know very few folks in my semi-rural neighborhood-worked night shift for 35 years and I don't know all the back roads BUT my Town chairperson for the Democrats DOES know many many folks and the back roads- I drive, she talks. Worked well for us in the past.
Hi Robert. Thanks again! One nit, however: "The Supreme Court’s legitimacy crisis worsens by the day, and the justices have no one to blame but themselves." Not exactly. They have a supine Congress -- especially squirmy people like Collins -- and fierce Federalist Society fanatics who will do anything to get Conservatives on the court to overturn our rights, and who are equally to blame, if not more so.
Just a couple of years ago we had a SC problem, a terrorist group in the executive branch and a nonfunctioning Congress. This year we see much improvement in the executive branch with a better functioning group working for the American people. We have got to do better.
Our local, weekly postcarding group starts up again today. We were pretty consistently writing for a variety of candidates during the Orange Administration. Now back and today writing for Sen.Warnock. Everu weel week will vary but Activate America is the group we are using. Ours is not a group comfortable with doing texting or phone banking. Snappy postcards, easy to read and punchy short messages in real handwriting from real people to real people is what we do. People can take cards, stamps and addresses home to write or stay here for a bit and chat and write. We need each other and we know that.
Thanks for the input about Activate America-I hadn't heard about it. Already working w/ both Progressive Turn Out Project (specifically for my home state of NH) and Vote Forward doing postcards.
They will email addresses....immediately. We have the cards and stamps and just cut up the address into sections for each volunteer. We tried (in MA) to write for Maggie Hassan but they never answered our pleas! We are really good at this and did thousands of cards for Jared Golden back in 2018? A century ago.
What is the 2022 election about? Alito’s draft opinion, and the upsurge of Republican attempts to override human rights generally, show us that the question for voters is whether government of the people, by the people and for the people will perish from the Earth, or be vindicated and strengthened. Nothing less is at stake.
From Mark Joseph Stern: "Here is Louisiana’s new fetal personhood bill—which House Republicans just voted out of committee 7–2—making abortion a crime of homicide “from the moment of fertilization” and allowing prosectors to charge patients with murder. https://legiscan.com/LA/text/HB813/id/2549012/Louisiana-2022-HB813-Introduced.pdf"
Yes, take the most extreme bill ,which appears to be Louisiana, and customize to your state.
The writing is on the wall. Governor DeSantis created his own redistricting law. Abortion will be next.Your daughter is raped , has an abortion, and goes to prison. ( Or is killed by some right-wing fanatic who doesn’t need a permit to carry )
Joanne, As I read the bill, basically the only justification/exemption is if you’re threatened with murder. No exemptions for rape/incest. Is that how you read it ?
I think that if they do this, the man who impregnated the woman should also be charged! Why are men left out of the situation? Unless they raped the women. they are 50% responsible.
Our U.S. Rep for Northern Michigan and the UP, Jack Bergman, actually lives in Loisiana. Thanks probably to a gift of Oil money, he bought a cabin the Upper Peninsula to declare residency, winning in 2016, to preserve Enbridge's Line 5. We have started a campaign to "Send Jack Back," educating our good, decent rural Republican folk about why it is important to vote for our moderate Democrat, Dr. Bob Lorinser, this year.
Why in the world would any Michigander vote for someone who lives in Louisiana? Owning a cabin does not make him a resident! I was born up there In Ontonagon on Lake Superior. I care more about Michigan than he does and I haven’t lived there since I was five years old! I miss it, too. The paper mill that was there closed and we had to move where the Company sent us. It broke my heart. I never saw my grandmother again. That was almost 68 years ago! You have to change your state laws on residency for your Representatives and Senators!
You are a Yooper! So sad that your family had to relocate for work so long ago. I hope you get back to visit. Gorgeous country! Rep. Jack Bergman claims to be a Yooper because he bought a small fishing cabin south of Ontonagan in Watersmeet 30 years ago, but according to some folks up there it was for a fishing trip once or twice a year, and other folks say his cabin was in Wisconsin until he decided to run for Congress. Eitger way, his wife never came up from their home in Louisiana, and still doesn't except for photo ops. Residency is determined by where a person claims their primary home is. Our wonderful Democratic candidate, Dr. Bob Lorinser was a family doctor in Marquette, Michigan for 25 years, before he and his wife served for the State Department in Iraq, S. Korea, and several other countries for 10 years. Then they returned to Marquette where he became the Health Officer ir the Health Department. He's a Yooper!
He is a Yooper and by heaven he should win! What can you do to disqualify that guy from Louisiana? He does not have a primary residence up there, so he never should have been on the ticket in the first place! I hope to get up to Ontonagon before I die. I will be 73 next month. I no longer have any family up there. Both of my grandparents died after we moved. I do have family in Wisconsin, Antigo and Rhinelander. Unfortunately, my cousins are older than I am and in poor health.
I really hope that Dr. Lorinser wins. You all should post pictures of his real home in Louisiana alongside the cabin that he claims is his residence. Kick that carpetbagger out of office!
Ugh! Typical right wing Republican. Also, he is trading on being a Marine.
The doctor has much better credentials. You all, or you guys as I said before we had to move to Virginia, can make sure that your Democratic candidate wins. Yoopers are not stupid!
Still processing my plan, and our family plan - donate where we can (sent Tim Ryan a little cash last night), register voters, show up at the Supremes Court to protest, hope to work for Rep. Abigail Spanberger campaign, and be sure my 17 yo (turns 18 in July) registers to vote.
It’s always about the numbers and thank you Robert for clarifying and rationalizing the numbers for us. We need to be realistic about a few things. The Biden Administration does t have a silver bullet to change the Supreme Court decision and anything they do will be on the fringe. We knew this decision was heading in this direction but the Biden Administration was caught flat footed and is trying to recover. Most voters will not read the draft of the opinion or understand it and understand how poorly the justification was. What Democrats need to do with urgency is scream about what other rights are in jeopardy and what it means s to voters and their families. Frankly we need to scare people to action it’s that serious. Vice President Harris said the following yesterday “ Those Republican leaders who are trying to weaponize the use of the law against women — well, we say, “How dare they?” How dare they tell a woman what she can do and cannot do with her own body? How dare they? How dare they try to stop her from determining her own future? How dare they try to deny women their rights and their freedoms? … They want to ban abortion in every state. They want to bully anyone who seeks or provides reproductive health care. And they want to criminalize and punish women for making these decisions. Woman of all political persuasions must all come together to say you have no right to tell me what I can do with my body. Are we going to let the Supreme Court take away our freedoms? Woman have the power now and they need to step up in numbers and be counted.
I just heard a suggestion on a news program which was discussing that nowhere is the man in this situation discussed. If abortion is prohibited, the impregnator must sign a $300,000 bond for the rearing and education of that child into adulthood. But would that even work? Look how many men do not pay for childcare!
I think it’s also crucial to consider the younger voters, who in the past have felt no real urgency around the threat of overturning Roe. With internet access to morning-after drugs, the threat seems mild to them, according to some professors I know. There is a casual attitude regarding abortion it seems. The idea of government mandated pregnancy needs to be approached from a slightly different angle for this demographic. I agree with the line of thought Mr Hubbell suggests here and hope we come up with persuasive language that will broaden their understanding of what’s at stake.
The “draft” decision is like a dead fish, the longer it sits, the more it stinks. Right now I am encouraged by women…and men…coming together to support women in need of this health care. Several Facebook groups have formed and one in particular started by the group Red, Wine and Blue, had multiple posts last night where women who no longer can have children offer to buy the “Plan B” pills and send them to those that need them. Women in safe states for abortion rights offer their homes for people to stay if they need to travel there. People in red states are offering to take care of children if their moms need to travel. So, lots of people coming together to offer help in ways big and small. And since we can walk and chew gum at the same time, we are also mobilizing to register new voters and get out the vote.
I’ve taken a look at Isgur’s article and it comes across as Republican wishful thinking. Just to reinforce your points.
1. Salience or Intensity of Concern is Hugely Important. Most of the swingier or lower-propensity (A.K.A. high-potential) voters do not follow politics very closely and do not weigh a sizable set of issues and make some kind of calculation for voting preference. Rather they very often respond to one or perhaps 2 matters, that somehow resonate with them. Republicans have capitalized on this for years by stirring up a minority set of voters, for each of which it is their paramount issue and the groups collectively constitute a large block of voters (e.g. gun rights, abortion, immigrant phobia, anti-vax, etc.) When faced with the stark reality of access to abortion, for themselves and others, the intensity of concern is bound to rise substantially in an important set of voters. Recall that elections are very often decided by just a few percentage points.
2. Abortion in Virginia in 2021 wasn’t all that prominent. Sure McAuliffe had some ads on it, among other things and it was raised in debates. But there were many other strong factors influencing that election. During canvassing in VA in 2021, I personally talked to hundreds of voters, and it was very rarely mentioned. Recall both houses of the legislature were Democratic. So there was no impending risk, unlike the stark reality now.
3. Turnout Is Actually the Key Issue Overall. The fact that it was very high in 2020 nationwide and also in VA in 2021, begs the question of how it will be in 2022. As you point out the largest part of the eligible voting population didn’t vote at all. Beyond that, everyone expects the mid term to be less than 2020. The key question is how much the fall-off will be and who can turn out their voters the best. This issue can definitely help us.
4. Fits into an Overall Narrative of Extremism. Abortion may well be the lynchpin in making a persuasive overall argument about the MAGA Extremists, as President Biden is now calling them, that can resonate. In addition to assault on abortion, one can add a substantial list: e.g the January 6 mob attack, the related conspiracy to overthrow the 2020 election results, assaults on school boards and libraries, anti-LGBTQ legislation, Covid denialism and Pro Putin support etc.
Planned Parenthood and Women's March have scheduled a "Bans Off Our Bodies Abortion Rally" in LA and Santa Barbara for Saturday, May 14th. This event should be national.
If you want to demonstrate your support, contact your local Planned Parenthood or Women's March chapter and plan or support a rally in your town/city. Also, email, text, message and/or tweet the May 14th event to your friends and family so they too can demonstrate their support for a woman's reproduction rights, privileges, privacy and liberty.
I support Roe v. Wade. I also believe that there is a range of opinions, thoughtful opinions, on whether there should be ANY limits on abortion.
I believe Dems can be most effective in fighting this if they focus on the extremism of this decision. We're already living this extremism in Texas. One small step is in writing about this issue, I think the writer should always include "children," as what has happened to child rape victims is truly barbaric. I'm urging reports to do this. An example is a modification of one of Robert's beautiful sentences:
The question that matters is whether the Court preserves or revokes the constitutional right of women to control their destinies and reproductive choices AND PARENTS TO SEEK MEDICAL CARE FOR THEIR CHILDREN AFTER A RAPE.
In Texas, NOW, we have child rape victims forced to carry their pregnancies to term. We have forced births in unimaginably tragic situations where the best decision has been removed from the hands of mothers, fathers, doctors, pastors.
I can understand questioning a late term abortion of a perfectly healthy child--I'm not expressing an agreement or disagreement--I'm just saying I can understand that position.
But what we're seeing in Texas, and what the SC is getting ready to unleash, is barbaric.
And, I think if Dems and all will take a giant step backwards, and focus on the opinion that government has the right to judge and criminalize what is happening in privacy in our homes and medical choices, we can further get people on board to vote no. What I do in my home that doesn't hurt me or others, cannot ever be judged by white men in power. They won't be judging and punishing the wealthy because they will be relying on those huge donations.
I agree with everything you state here. It seems to me that Dems should also emphasize that they do NOT advocate abortion on demand at any stage. Repubs have consistently accused liberals of advocating abortion at any time.
Hi Robert- I know there is a lot going on with the Court but several articles discuss the fact that the majority of its members were nominated by Presidents who were elected by a minority of citizens. Who is working to eliminate the Electoral College??? It’s always discussed during and after elections but then everyone forgets about it. I believe it is the source of many ills and should be one of our top issues. Thoughts? Thanks, Jeanne McGinnis
Hi, Jeanne. Elimination of the electoral college would require approval by 2/3 vote in Congress and ratification by 3/4 of the states. That will never happen because the small states will lose virtually all of their voting power ( except in the Senate) that they currently enjoy in presidential elections. There is a movement for states to agree to an interstate compact in which state legislatures agree to commit their electors to the popular vote winner. If enough states agreed to that compact, that would effectively override the electoral college. However, that proposal has constitutional problems. Congress must approve interstate compacts, and the arrangement would effectively amend the constitution without securing ratification by 3/4 of the states. So, I hate to say it, but we are stuck with the electoral college. The solution is to avoid narrow election victories so that the results are not subject to manipulation.
As you have stated before, we need to expand the Supreme Court. I also believe that giving statehood to Puerto Rico and DC would make a difference.
They should have statehood! I can’t imagine being denied the rights that they are being denied because they are not states.
My Puerto Rican daughter-in-law would agree.
Thank you for the thorough, though depressing, reply. You’re right - I guess working against voter suppression and getting out the vote is most important!
I find it depressing as well. I want my vote to count. Well, I guess we will just have to work harder.
I think I said it yesterday that I hate understanding that the swing states determine our elections. And, that is due to the electoral votes these states give. Democratic and Republican candidates alike have been known to focus on only these states when champaining.
I agree with you! The electoral college is not democratic.
Vote Forward is a great letter writing organization. In the last election I sent 200 letters to democratic leaning people in Georgia , many who did not normally vote, and 2 Democrats won the Senate seats.
I did multiple letters thru the aegis of Vote Forward in 2020 and have already done 50 postcards for this year for the Progressive Turn Out Project in my state of NH due 5/31/22. I have 200 postcards for Vote Forward for November.
Excellent! Writing postcards is my therapy. :-)
Me too; direct canvassing doesn't work for me as I know very few folks in my semi-rural neighborhood-worked night shift for 35 years and I don't know all the back roads BUT my Town chairperson for the Democrats DOES know many many folks and the back roads- I drive, she talks. Worked well for us in the past.
Yes! Also, postcards to voters, Fair Fight and Swing Left are good for writing postcards.
I have wondered if those letter writing campaigns did any good. You answered that question for me. Thank you.
Hi Robert. Thanks again! One nit, however: "The Supreme Court’s legitimacy crisis worsens by the day, and the justices have no one to blame but themselves." Not exactly. They have a supine Congress -- especially squirmy people like Collins -- and fierce Federalist Society fanatics who will do anything to get Conservatives on the court to overturn our rights, and who are equally to blame, if not more so.
Just a couple of years ago we had a SC problem, a terrorist group in the executive branch and a nonfunctioning Congress. This year we see much improvement in the executive branch with a better functioning group working for the American people. We have got to do better.
Thank you Robert for confirming my instincts regarding the Ohio primary. You do a great job of helping me keep my head on straight each morning.
Our local, weekly postcarding group starts up again today. We were pretty consistently writing for a variety of candidates during the Orange Administration. Now back and today writing for Sen.Warnock. Everu weel week will vary but Activate America is the group we are using. Ours is not a group comfortable with doing texting or phone banking. Snappy postcards, easy to read and punchy short messages in real handwriting from real people to real people is what we do. People can take cards, stamps and addresses home to write or stay here for a bit and chat and write. We need each other and we know that.
Thanks for the input about Activate America-I hadn't heard about it. Already working w/ both Progressive Turn Out Project (specifically for my home state of NH) and Vote Forward doing postcards.
They will email addresses....immediately. We have the cards and stamps and just cut up the address into sections for each volunteer. We tried (in MA) to write for Maggie Hassan but they never answered our pleas! We are really good at this and did thousands of cards for Jared Golden back in 2018? A century ago.
I joined yesterday :)
https://www.mobilize.us/activateamerica/event/458420/
Small numbers in Ohio. Small minds at SCOTUS.
What is the 2022 election about? Alito’s draft opinion, and the upsurge of Republican attempts to override human rights generally, show us that the question for voters is whether government of the people, by the people and for the people will perish from the Earth, or be vindicated and strengthened. Nothing less is at stake.
From Mark Joseph Stern: "Here is Louisiana’s new fetal personhood bill—which House Republicans just voted out of committee 7–2—making abortion a crime of homicide “from the moment of fertilization” and allowing prosectors to charge patients with murder. https://legiscan.com/LA/text/HB813/id/2549012/Louisiana-2022-HB813-Introduced.pdf"
They are not hiding their plans.
Thanks for the reference. I will check out the link. To state the obvious, that would mean that many forms of birth control are murder.
If that is the case, men should be charged as well.
Yes, take the most extreme bill ,which appears to be Louisiana, and customize to your state.
The writing is on the wall. Governor DeSantis created his own redistricting law. Abortion will be next.Your daughter is raped , has an abortion, and goes to prison. ( Or is killed by some right-wing fanatic who doesn’t need a permit to carry )
It's scary.
Joanne, As I read the bill, basically the only justification/exemption is if you’re threatened with murder. No exemptions for rape/incest. Is that how you read it ?
I am not a lawyer, but no, I don't see any references to rape or incest at all.
I think that if they do this, the man who impregnated the woman should also be charged! Why are men left out of the situation? Unless they raped the women. they are 50% responsible.
Our U.S. Rep for Northern Michigan and the UP, Jack Bergman, actually lives in Loisiana. Thanks probably to a gift of Oil money, he bought a cabin the Upper Peninsula to declare residency, winning in 2016, to preserve Enbridge's Line 5. We have started a campaign to "Send Jack Back," educating our good, decent rural Republican folk about why it is important to vote for our moderate Democrat, Dr. Bob Lorinser, this year.
Why in the world would any Michigander vote for someone who lives in Louisiana? Owning a cabin does not make him a resident! I was born up there In Ontonagon on Lake Superior. I care more about Michigan than he does and I haven’t lived there since I was five years old! I miss it, too. The paper mill that was there closed and we had to move where the Company sent us. It broke my heart. I never saw my grandmother again. That was almost 68 years ago! You have to change your state laws on residency for your Representatives and Senators!
He apparently upgraded the fishing cabin before running for office there.
I will bet that it is not as nice as his home in Louisiana. A snowbird is not someone any Yooper would want representing them.
Nope.
For sure!
You are a Yooper! So sad that your family had to relocate for work so long ago. I hope you get back to visit. Gorgeous country! Rep. Jack Bergman claims to be a Yooper because he bought a small fishing cabin south of Ontonagan in Watersmeet 30 years ago, but according to some folks up there it was for a fishing trip once or twice a year, and other folks say his cabin was in Wisconsin until he decided to run for Congress. Eitger way, his wife never came up from their home in Louisiana, and still doesn't except for photo ops. Residency is determined by where a person claims their primary home is. Our wonderful Democratic candidate, Dr. Bob Lorinser was a family doctor in Marquette, Michigan for 25 years, before he and his wife served for the State Department in Iraq, S. Korea, and several other countries for 10 years. Then they returned to Marquette where he became the Health Officer ir the Health Department. He's a Yooper!
He is a Yooper and by heaven he should win! What can you do to disqualify that guy from Louisiana? He does not have a primary residence up there, so he never should have been on the ticket in the first place! I hope to get up to Ontonagon before I die. I will be 73 next month. I no longer have any family up there. Both of my grandparents died after we moved. I do have family in Wisconsin, Antigo and Rhinelander. Unfortunately, my cousins are older than I am and in poor health.
I really hope that Dr. Lorinser wins. You all should post pictures of his real home in Louisiana alongside the cabin that he claims is his residence. Kick that carpetbagger out of office!
Great idea to post a picture of his real home in Louisiana!! Thanks Virginia!!
You are welcome! Be sure to post on here when the doctor wins!🥳
https://www.eclectablog.com/2016/10/gop-candidate-in-mi-01-jack-bergman-admits-hes-been-living-in-louisiana-through-at-least-last-spring.html
Ugh! Typical right wing Republican. Also, he is trading on being a Marine.
The doctor has much better credentials. You all, or you guys as I said before we had to move to Virginia, can make sure that your Democratic candidate wins. Yoopers are not stupid!
We guys will!! Thank you Virginia!
Great! I can’t have my hometown represented by a carpetbagger!
Great messaging.
Still processing my plan, and our family plan - donate where we can (sent Tim Ryan a little cash last night), register voters, show up at the Supremes Court to protest, hope to work for Rep. Abigail Spanberger campaign, and be sure my 17 yo (turns 18 in July) registers to vote.
https://www.votedrbob.com/
Thanks as always for calling out the doomsayers, Robert. Lies. damn lies, and statistics as usual!
It’s always about the numbers and thank you Robert for clarifying and rationalizing the numbers for us. We need to be realistic about a few things. The Biden Administration does t have a silver bullet to change the Supreme Court decision and anything they do will be on the fringe. We knew this decision was heading in this direction but the Biden Administration was caught flat footed and is trying to recover. Most voters will not read the draft of the opinion or understand it and understand how poorly the justification was. What Democrats need to do with urgency is scream about what other rights are in jeopardy and what it means s to voters and their families. Frankly we need to scare people to action it’s that serious. Vice President Harris said the following yesterday “ Those Republican leaders who are trying to weaponize the use of the law against women — well, we say, “How dare they?” How dare they tell a woman what she can do and cannot do with her own body? How dare they? How dare they try to stop her from determining her own future? How dare they try to deny women their rights and their freedoms? … They want to ban abortion in every state. They want to bully anyone who seeks or provides reproductive health care. And they want to criminalize and punish women for making these decisions. Woman of all political persuasions must all come together to say you have no right to tell me what I can do with my body. Are we going to let the Supreme Court take away our freedoms? Woman have the power now and they need to step up in numbers and be counted.
I just heard a suggestion on a news program which was discussing that nowhere is the man in this situation discussed. If abortion is prohibited, the impregnator must sign a $300,000 bond for the rearing and education of that child into adulthood. But would that even work? Look how many men do not pay for childcare!
Agree and that is the problem and more importantly woman were never even considered in this legislation at the state levels
I think it’s also crucial to consider the younger voters, who in the past have felt no real urgency around the threat of overturning Roe. With internet access to morning-after drugs, the threat seems mild to them, according to some professors I know. There is a casual attitude regarding abortion it seems. The idea of government mandated pregnancy needs to be approached from a slightly different angle for this demographic. I agree with the line of thought Mr Hubbell suggests here and hope we come up with persuasive language that will broaden their understanding of what’s at stake.
The “draft” decision is like a dead fish, the longer it sits, the more it stinks. Right now I am encouraged by women…and men…coming together to support women in need of this health care. Several Facebook groups have formed and one in particular started by the group Red, Wine and Blue, had multiple posts last night where women who no longer can have children offer to buy the “Plan B” pills and send them to those that need them. Women in safe states for abortion rights offer their homes for people to stay if they need to travel there. People in red states are offering to take care of children if their moms need to travel. So, lots of people coming together to offer help in ways big and small. And since we can walk and chew gum at the same time, we are also mobilizing to register new voters and get out the vote.
I’ve taken a look at Isgur’s article and it comes across as Republican wishful thinking. Just to reinforce your points.
1. Salience or Intensity of Concern is Hugely Important. Most of the swingier or lower-propensity (A.K.A. high-potential) voters do not follow politics very closely and do not weigh a sizable set of issues and make some kind of calculation for voting preference. Rather they very often respond to one or perhaps 2 matters, that somehow resonate with them. Republicans have capitalized on this for years by stirring up a minority set of voters, for each of which it is their paramount issue and the groups collectively constitute a large block of voters (e.g. gun rights, abortion, immigrant phobia, anti-vax, etc.) When faced with the stark reality of access to abortion, for themselves and others, the intensity of concern is bound to rise substantially in an important set of voters. Recall that elections are very often decided by just a few percentage points.
2. Abortion in Virginia in 2021 wasn’t all that prominent. Sure McAuliffe had some ads on it, among other things and it was raised in debates. But there were many other strong factors influencing that election. During canvassing in VA in 2021, I personally talked to hundreds of voters, and it was very rarely mentioned. Recall both houses of the legislature were Democratic. So there was no impending risk, unlike the stark reality now.
3. Turnout Is Actually the Key Issue Overall. The fact that it was very high in 2020 nationwide and also in VA in 2021, begs the question of how it will be in 2022. As you point out the largest part of the eligible voting population didn’t vote at all. Beyond that, everyone expects the mid term to be less than 2020. The key question is how much the fall-off will be and who can turn out their voters the best. This issue can definitely help us.
4. Fits into an Overall Narrative of Extremism. Abortion may well be the lynchpin in making a persuasive overall argument about the MAGA Extremists, as President Biden is now calling them, that can resonate. In addition to assault on abortion, one can add a substantial list: e.g the January 6 mob attack, the related conspiracy to overthrow the 2020 election results, assaults on school boards and libraries, anti-LGBTQ legislation, Covid denialism and Pro Putin support etc.
Hi, Jim. Thanks for your contribution and analysis. Very helpful.
Planned Parenthood and Women's March have scheduled a "Bans Off Our Bodies Abortion Rally" in LA and Santa Barbara for Saturday, May 14th. This event should be national.
If you want to demonstrate your support, contact your local Planned Parenthood or Women's March chapter and plan or support a rally in your town/city. Also, email, text, message and/or tweet the May 14th event to your friends and family so they too can demonstrate their support for a woman's reproduction rights, privileges, privacy and liberty.
My wife and I will be at the LA/downtown event.