The home stretch!
November 1, 2024
Hi, all. Tonight’s newsletter will be short. Jill and I are handing out Halloween candy in our front yard. During Covid we set up a tent in our driveway with music and lights. It was a hit and we have kept it up ever since. And we are packing our bags for North Carolina. We will be canvassing in Mecklenburg County Saturday through Election Day. We will spend Election Night at the Democratic Headquarters in Mecklenburg County. We hope to see readers and grassroots volunteers from across the nation during our five days in Mecklenburg.
Here is some exciting news: Kamala Harris will appear in Mecklenburg County on Saturday evening. Her appearance in North Carolina—and Mecklenburg in particular—highlights both its importance and the success of the ground operation in Mecklenburg. Thanks to readers of this newsletter for your incredible support for Mecklenburg County. As I have noted on prior occasions, if Kamala Harris can win Mecklenburg by a strong margin, she has a good chance of winning North Carolina—which would give her a much higher probability of an electoral college victory.
Note also the appeal below for additional volunteers for the ground operation in Mecklenburg—canvassers and phone-bankers. There will be a party on Sunday evening in Charlotte for all out-of-state volunteers. Jill and I will be there and look forward to seeing many of you!
The newsletter publication schedule may differ (and be more abbreviated) as we travel and canvass. Thanks for your understanding.
General observations about the campaign
The disinformation efforts are in high gear and are compounded by difficult-to-interpret early voting numbers. Others have written extensively about how to interpret early voting (Simon Rosenberg and Jay Kuo). My overly simplistic interpretation is that we are seeing the natural phenomenon of regression to the mean in early voting as the distortions in early voting caused by the Covid lockdown in 2020 are no longer present. That makes percentage comparisons and trends between 2020 and 2024 misleading.
In general, the core data conforms to what the political moment suggests should happen: Democrats are seeing strong(er) results based on the overriding issue of the 2024 election: The abrogation of the right of reproductive liberty in Dobbs that demoted more than half of America’s population to second class citizens. (See Jay Kuo’s article, linked above).
Democrats overperformed expectations in nearly every election since Dobbs. But pollsters and pundits keep trying to model 2024 based on 2020 and 2016. Not only do those elections lack the post-Dobbs effect, neither of them involved a candidate who mounted a coup and incited an insurrection, was convicted of 34 felonies, withheld national defense documents after a demand for their return, and was found to be civilly liable for sexual assault.
None of the above is meant to dismiss the consistent signal in the polls that the election will be close. But the relative advantage generated by enthusiasm and momentum cannot be ignored—as most pollsters seem to do.
In an incredible gift to the Harris campaign, Trump's surrogates have been saying the ugly part out loud:
Speaker Mike Johnson admitted that Republicans still want to repeal Obamacare a.k.a. the Affordable Care Act. See Vox, Republicans are serious about cutting people’s health care
RFK Jr. speaks openly about managing multiple cabinet-level agencies and sub-agencies across the federal landscape. What could go wrong with a guy who dumped a dead bear-cub in Central Park, used a chain saw to decapitate a dead whale, and contributed to a deadly measles outbreak in Samoa? (How RFK Jr. Falsely Denied His Connection to a Deadly Measles Outbreak in Samoa – Mother Jones).
The Trump-Vance transition chair, Howard Lutnick, (CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald), repeatedly questioned the effectiveness of vaccines in an interview with Caitlin Collins on CNN. Video: Kaitlan Collins spars with Trump-Vance transition co-chair about RFK Jr. and vaccines | CNN Politics.
And of course, Trump chose five days before Election Day to tell women that he is going to exert control over them “whether the women like it or not:
I want to protect the women of our country. I want to protect the women [even though my advisors said it was] very inappropriate for you to say.
"I said, 'Well, I'm going to do it, whether the women like it or not . . .
See Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Harris rips Trump for saying he'll protect women whether they 'like it or not'.
And on Thursday evening, Trump said in an interview with Tucker Carlson that Liz Cheney should have “guns trained on her” to see how she feels. He said:
“Let's put her with a rifle standing there with 9 barrels shooting at her. Let's see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face."
The media should write about nothing else for the next five days. Trump is implying an execution of a political opponent. On Thursday, the Times and WaPo devoted front-page coverage to a non-story about Joe Biden condemning the comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.” In comparison, Trump’s comments deserve 100X as much coverage—and condemnation.
The above missteps are damaging before we even get to the slurs and threats to wide swaths of Americans: Puerto Ricans, Black voters, Jewish voters, and anyone who opposes Trump's political agenda.
And Trump's effort to hold a press conference from a garbage truck was a public relations disaster because (a) Trump reminded everyone of the “floating island of garbage” comment, and (b) Trump visibly struggled to open the truck door and appeared to stumble due to lack of balance issues.
As always, we cannot rely on Republicans to defeat themselves, even though they are doing their best to do so. Indeed, it is unavoidable because the Republican platform (to the extent it exists) seeks to advantage millionaires and billionaires at the expense of everyone else. It is tough to build a winning message on that platform. Grievance and division will take you only so far. After that, you must appeal to people who want a president who will improve their lives. That isn’t Trump. It is Kamala Harris.
Trump has helped to crystalize the candidates' differences in the campaign's final weeks. That can only help Democrats up and down the ballot. As the saying goes, “Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good.” Fortunately, Kamala Harris is both!
Opportunities for Reader Engagement
Mecklenburg Dems looking for more canvassers and phone bankers
Here is a note from Drew Kromer, the Chair of the Mecklenburg County Democratic Party:
As we approach the final days of this pivotal election, we have an extraordinary opportunity to make a real difference–recent polls have shown Harris and Trump tied for 49% in NC. As of this evening (and with special thanks to hundreds of Today’s Edition readers), we’ve knocked on over 300,000 doors and made over 2,000,000 phone calls! Our work is paying off, but we still need to talk to another 350,000 people who haven’t voted yet.
So I have one request: come join us! Knocking on doors in Mecklenburg is the most impactful thing you could do over the next five days. Our internal numbers suggest we could be within a few thousand votes of flipping NC blue (which gives Harris a 97% chance of becoming President). With your help, Mecklenburg can literally decide this election.
We’re also going to have a blast! Robert, Jill, and Jessica Craven will be joining us in Mecklenburg tomorrow to knock on doors right up until Election Day. Plus, Kamala Harris will be in Charlotte on Saturday evening! On Sunday night, MeckDems is hosting a special Out-of-State Volunteer Reception featuring Robert, Jill, and Jessica! And don’t forget about the must-attend party on Tuesday night!
Imagine the power of your collective action—if 250 Today’s Edition readers signed up to come canvass with us for 3 days, each knocking on 180-240 doors/day, that would become 135,000-180,000 additional door knocks. This would generate thousands of additional votes–which could be the entire margin of victory in NC.
For the next five days, we are not just volunteers; we are change-makers. Every conversation you have can shift a perspective, every door you knock can lead to a vote that changes history. Instead of worrying about polls, imagine the pride of knowing that you were part of a movement that helped secure a better tomorrow. Come join the Party in Meck!
Blue Voter Guide promotion from Field Team 6
Jason Berlin of Field Team 6 sent a note asking me to promote this video (Blue Voter Guide Intro on Vimeo) about the Blue Voter Guide.
Jason writes, We put together a new 30 second intro video for BlueVoterGuide.org - would love you to see it and spread the word if you can! BlueVoterGuide.org is now approaching 2 million users total - thank you so much for helping us get to this point!! And we’d love to double that if possible.
Blue Voter Guide is incredibly important in helping to fight “down-ballot drop-off.” Democrats are more likely than Republicans to leave blanks on down-ballot races. This phenomenon gives Republicans an unearned advantage in local races that have significant control over our lives.
Blue Voter Guide will help you complete your ballot by providing guidance for every race on your ballot. Just enter your zip code and Blue Voter Guide will provide you with the information you need to make your voice heard in every race on the ballot. Again, the introductory video is here: Blue Voter Guide Intro on Vimeo.
Concluding Thoughts
In the last few newsletters, I have highlighted positive and uplifting reports from readers engaged in canvassing and phone banking. I continue to hear such reports, and they are gratifying and confidence-inspiring.
But I also hear from readers exposed to negative comments and angry responses while phone banking and canvassing. Enduring dozens of such responses during a volunteer session is difficult. Such experiences can be dispiriting and cause volunteers to have an overly negative view of the electorate and Democratic prospects in the election. And yet, they keep volunteering to put themselves on the line.
To those brave souls who are regular phone bankers and canvassers, thank you! You are making a personal sacrifice that will have a direct impact on the election. I know that thousands of readers of this newsletter are daily phone bankers and that thousands more routinely canvass with friends and colleagues in grassroots organizations. You are true heroes of democracy. Bless you all for your willingness to do the difficult and thankless work of relational politics.
Talk to you tomorrow! Stay strong!
Daily Dose of Perspective
The photo below is of me writing this newsletter while handing out Halloween candy:
The image below is a repeat of the Lagoon Nebula. I have run out of “new” astronomy photos and will not have access to my telescope until Wednesday. In the meantime, I will re-run earlier photos. To my surprise, some readers have told me that the astronomy photos are their favorite part of the newsletter. Others have asked me to publish a collection of the newsletter astronomy photos. I will do so, soon.
The Lagoon Nebula is about 5,000 light-years from Earth and is a star-forming region. It is 55 x 20 light-years across.
Enjoy!
So proud of Jill and you, Robert, for modeling democracy in action. We are with you in NC in spirit while we plug away in our respective states this final weekend.
In swing Michigan, we are knocking doors on Saturday and phone-banking on Sunday.. This is FAR outside of our comfort zone as introverts, yet we persist. Doing everything we can -- including donating legal max -- to preserve our democracy. It IS that important, friends!
As we say here, GO BLUE FULL BALLOT 🩵
Robert, may you and all the readers of this newsletter work to great effect for Kamala and the country in NC! I now rely on the Guardian as a more traditional news source. I'm mostly relying on TPM and a few Substacks like yours, Heather Cox Richardson, Jay Kuo, and a few others , for political coverage. I skim the homepage headlines on the Times once or twice daily. It seems to me there's been some improvement with the Times the past couple weeks. It's long overdue and way too late. I suspect the Times owners and editors don't understand the degree of anger in their readers on their failure to meet what could well be the greatest challenge of our political lives. I imagine they're looking worriedly at the Post while not realizing they're looking in a mirror. On a much lighter note I second the folks rating your astronomy photos as a highlight!