The ground begins to shift in our favor.

February 21, 2025

The first signs of an electoral backlash against Trump emerged in polling that measured public reaction to Trump's four-week rolling coup and destruction derby. Republican members of Congress have found themselves on the receiving end of hostile town hall meetings and melting phone lines. Given the acceleration in Trump’s lawlessness and destruction in the last week, we must assume that the sudden increase in Trump's unfavorability ratings understates his unpopularity.

But we cannot relent. The very polls that document Trump's spike in unpopularity also reveal strong MAGA support for many of his most hateful policies.

Still, those polls (discussed in Concluding Thoughts below) reveal the way forward: Rallying public opinion against Trump and his anti-democratic, anti-government, anti-people policies. We have made significant progress in four weeks—to the point that we can begin to see the outlines of a Democratic victory in the House in 2026. That will give democracy purchase to begin the long, difficult task of undoing the damage inflicted in four short weeks.

In yesterday’s newsletter, I asked readers to document the effects of Trump's policies on their lives. I invite you to read through a sampling of 364 comments. Common elements include the cruelty and senselessness of Trump's actions—as well as their cascading effects on family, friends, and complete strangers who were not the specific targets of Trump's rampage.

Sadly, we live in a polarized electoral environment in which the margins of victory are small. But that polarization means that we need win over hearts and minds of only a small slice of the electorate. While that is more difficult than it sounds, it is not impossible. Indeed, we did so in 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023. We can do so in 2026—so long as we become evangelists for the truth and chroniclers of Trump's destruction

Four weeks in, we can begin to feel the ground shift in our favor. We still lack organized resistance from the Democratic Party, which means that our actions are more important than ever. Until Democratic leaders rise to the moment, we must be the voice of democracy—in the streets, in church basements and civic auditoriums, on social media, and in every relationship in our lives. Take heart, stay strong, and arm ourselves with the facts of Trump's multifaceted effort to overthrow the Constitution.

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Senate confirms Kash Patel

In a truly disgraceful vote, the US Senate confirmed Kash Patel to a ten-year term as the FBI director. Patel plans to destroy the FBI, but not before he uses it as a political hit squad to persecute Trump's enemies. See Real Clear Politics (11/14/2024), Kash Patel: Shut Down The FBI's Hoover Building And Turn It Into "Museum Of The Deep State.”

Patel’s book (Government Gangsters) includes a list of sixty persons deemed to be Members of the Executive Branch Deep State. See The New Republic, The Who’s Who on Kash Patel’s Crazy Enemies List. Patel made clear during interviews that he would seek to “go out and find the conspirators . . . not just in government, but in the media.… Whether it’s criminally or civilly, we’ll figure that out.”

Patel swore under oath at his confirmation hearing that he did not have an enemies list and he would not use the FBI to persecute Trump's political opponents. The “over / under” line on betting when Patel will break his oath is measured in hours, not days . . . .

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Trump plans to abolish the Post Office

Trump is reportedly planning to issue an executive order that will dissolve the Post Office Board of Governors and absorb the Post Office into the Commerce Department. See Reuters, Trump expected to take control of USPS, fire postal board, Washington Post reports.

Such a move would be unconstitutional. Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution provides that Congress may “establish Post Offices and post Roads.”

Congress passed the Postal Service Act in 1792, legislation that was signed by President George Washington. The Act created the position of Postmaster General and directed “That there shall be established, at the seat of the government of the United States, a general post-office.”

Over the ensuing two centuries, the Post Office was expanded and reorganized by the Post Office Consolidation Act of 1872 and the Postal Reorganization Act of 1970. The latter transformed the “Post Office” into the U.S. Postal Service, an independent agency managed by a Board of Governors.

The US Postal Service is a statutory agency created by Congress. Trump cannot “dissolve” the US Postal Service, nor can he dismiss the Board of Governors or merge the US Postal Service into the Department of Commerce. Such moves would negate the legislative authority of Congress.

If Trump does abolish the Post Office, that action will not differ from his abolition of USAID, the CFPB, the NLRB, and other independent agencies created by Congress.

Have I mentioned recently that this is a coup? There is no other word to describe the wholesale disregard of the constitutional allocation of powers between the legislative, executive, and judicial branches.

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Trump is ignoring multiple court orders to unfreeze funds

Reporting in various media outlets suggests that Trump is violating multiple court orders to unfreeze funds. As explained by those sources, Trump's team is finding ways to prevent disbursement by manipulating the payment process.

For example, although a court has ordered that NIH grants be restored, the process for approving grants includes a scientific review board agreeing to disburse the grant money. Trump has simply prevented the scientific review boards from meeting—thereby preventing the precondition to the payment from being satisfied. See Nature, Revealed: NIH research grants still frozen despite lawsuits challenging Trump order.

Per Nature,

[A]lmost all grant-review meetings remain suspended at the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), preventing the world’s largest public funder of biomedical research from spending much of its US$47 billion annual budget.

These review panels are suspended because the Trump administration has barred the agency from taking a key procedural step necessary to schedule them.

Similar reporting in the NYTimes and Talking Points Memo provides additional support for reports of widespread flouting of court orders by the Trump administration.

At least one federal judge has ruled that the Trump administration has failed to abide by an order to “unfreeze” funds. See Bloomberg, Judge Says Trump Administration Didn’t Follow His Funding Order.

Per Bloomberg,

A federal judge said the Trump administration failed to comply with his order to resume federal payments to foreign assistance programs administered by the US Agency for International Development, but he declined to hold the government in contempt as requested by groups that sued.

The judge found that the administration had “continued their blanket suspension of funds” even after he blocked the government from doing so. “But the court finds that contempt is not warranted on the current record and given defendants’ explicit recognition that ‘prompt compliance with the order’ is required.”

So, even though the Trump administration is engaged in widespread flouting of court orders to unfreeze funds, a federal judge has refused to hold administration officials in contempt because they acknowledge that they are required to follow the law. Can you say, “Rope a dope?” (For clarity, that is a reference to Muhammad Ali’s boxing strategy, not the federal judge.)

Most litigants who disobey court orders cannot escape sanctions by merely making a “pinky swear” that they will do better in the future. If courts want their orders to be followed, they must impose consequences for failing to do so.

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Ukraine

Media reports suggest that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is attempting to provide private assurances that the US will not abandon Europe—as Vice President JD Vance said during his speech at the Munich Security Conference earlier this week. See NYTimes, In Private Remarks on Russia, Rubio Tries to Reassure Europeans. (Behind a paywall. I have run out of gift subscriptions.)

To understand the depth of the US betrayal of European bonds of friendship with the US, I highly recommend the essay by Lucian K. Truscott IV (Substack), Tears for fears. Truscott’s essay is both moving and informative. I guarantee that you will be a better, more informed person if you read his analysis.

But even as Rubio tried to make excuses for Vance and Trump, the US continued to dishonor its commitments to Ukraine and Europe. At a G7 conference, the US objected to a joint communique that referred to Russia’s “invasion” of Ukraine and called Russia the “aggressor.” See NYTimes, U.S. Objects to Calling Russia ‘Aggressor’ in G7 Statement on Ukraine Invasion. (Behind a paywall; I have run out of gift subscriptions.)

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Media Matters

A half dozen stories fall under the heading of the propaganda war being waged by Musk and Trump.

First, I urge you to read Marc Elias’s letter in response to Elon Musk’s taunts directed at Elias, who is an American hero. See Democracy Docket, Marc Elias: My Open Letter to Elon Musk.

Elias recounts how his family fled the “Pale of Settlement” in Russia to escape the persecution of Jewish people by the Tsar. Elias connects Musk’s taunts to the treatment endured by Elias’s ancestors in Russia. And then Elias concludes:

But you need to know this about me. I am the great-grandson of a man who led his family out of the shtetl to a strange land in search of a better life. I am the grandson of the three-year-old boy on that journey. As you know, my English name is Marc, but my Hebrew name is Elhanan (אֶלְחָנָן) — after the great warrior in David’s army who slew a powerful giant.

I will use every tool at my disposal to protect this country from Trump. I will litigate to defend voting rights until there are no cases left to bring. I will speak out against authoritarianism until my last breath.

I will not back down. I will not bow or scrape. I will never obey.

Share Marc Elias’s letter far and wide. More importantly, emulate Elias’s indomitable spirit.

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US Attorney in DC targets Democratic Representative for criticizing Trump

Ed Martin, the Acting US Attorney for D.C., has sent a letter to Democratic Representative Robert Garcia regarding comments Garcia made criticizing Musk and Trump. See Talking Points Memo, Trump’s DC US Attorney Targets House Dem, Expanding Effort To Stifle Trump Admin Criticism.

During a live interview, Rep. Garcia said,

What the American public wants is for us to bring actual weapons to this bar fight. This is an actual fight for democracy.

Garcia’s reference to a “bar fight” indicated that he was speaking metaphorically. But that didn’t stop Ed Martin from sending a “letter of inquiry” to Rep. Garcia, asking him to “clarify” what he meant. US Attorney Martin described the comment as a possible “threat” to Musk and the DOGE employees.

To be more accurate, Ed Martin sent a copy of the letter to the Washington Post, which is how Rep. Garcia learned about it. Garcia said,

No reasonable person would view these comments as a threat, and it’s interesting that the letter was sent to The Washington Post, yet we have not received it.

It appears that Ed Martin believes he has a friendly ally in the Washington Post if he is sending copies of threatening letters to the Post before they are received by the “targets” of the investigation.

The fact that the Post may be on the Trump administration’s “good side” is suggested by another development. The State Department announced that it was cutting back on media subscriptions for its personnel abroad. The communication announcing the cut-back listed six media outlets in particular: NYTimes, Economist, Politico, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press and Reuters.

Notably absent from the “banned” list of subscriptions is The Washington Post. Jeff Bezos once again proves that it helps to have friends in high places. Coward.

See MSN, State Dept. orders cancellation of news subscriptions around the world.

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Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals leaves ban on Trump's birthright executive order in place.

A district court judge issued a preliminary injunction against implementation of Trump's executive order that purported to limit the constitutional right to birthright citizenship. The Trump administration appealed the district court’s order and asked the Ninth Circuit to lift the preliminary injunction during the appeal's pendency. The Ninth Circuit refused to lift the injunction, setting up an appeal to the Supreme Court. See CNN, Appeals court leaves block on Trump’s birthright citizenship order in place, setting up Supreme Court showdown.

Now things get interesting. If the Supreme Court lifts the injunction to allow Trump's executive order to go into effect, we will have a clear signal that the Supreme Court is willing to do Trump's bidding—including granting emergency relief where no emergency exists.

If the Supreme Court supports Trump's broader efforts to usurp the constitutional authority of Congress, that will raise the interesting question of why American taxpayers should send their money to a federal government in which two people—Trump and Musk—get to decide how that money is spent. For an interesting discussion of that question, see Judith Levine in The Guardian, It’s time for Americans to withhold their taxes.

I am not advising anyone to break the law or refuse to pay taxes. However, understanding the arguments and the historical use of tax strikes is information that may become relevant in the future.

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Opportunities for Reader Engagement

Florida will be holding special elections to replace two Republican members of Congress whose seats are vacant. Florida Democrats will hold an online event next week featuring the Democratic candidates in those races, Gail Valimont (FL-01) and Josh Weil (FL 06). Winning the races in Florida will reduce the Republican majority in the House. Check out the event; I will make a few remarks with other Democratic activists. See the invite below:

If you’ve been feeling powerless recently, this is your chance to take ACTION against Trump.

We’re coming together for an ALL HANDS ON DECK National Organizing Call to support

Florida Democratic Part

MUST-WIN special elections that will flip the House and stop Trump in his tracks.

Join us on Monday, Feb 24th at 7:30pm EST to hear from DNC Vice Chair David Hogg, Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried, FL-01 Democratic nominee Gay Valimont, FL-06 Democratic nominee Josh Weil, as well as from top influencers like Robert Hubbell, JoJoFromJerz, Brooklyn Dad Defiant, Mueller She Wrote, and more!

We're not backing down, and we hope that you'll join us.

Register for the call at the link below:

https://www.mobilize.us/floridadems/event/757051/

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Concluding Thoughts

NOTE: I will hold a Substack livestream on Saturday morning at 9am PST / 12noon EST. The livestreams are open to everyone. Just download the Substack app.

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The first poll results are in for Trump's initial month in office. In general, they show that Trump's actions are broadly unpopular with the American people and that his disapproval rating is spiking (not a good thing for Trump). Rachel Maddow’s opening segment on Thursday evening covers this topic in depth. The 15-minute segment is here: Rachel Maddow | February 20, 2025.

Much of the content in Rachel’s show is derived from the latest Gallup Poll, which shows that Trump is more unpopular than any president at this point in their presidency—except for Trump's first term. Per the most recent Gallup poll,

“Trump's job approval rating is 15 points below the historical average for all other elected presidents in mid-February since 1953, but it is five points higher than the February reading in his first term.”

As noted by Rachel, Trump's disapproval ratings have increased by about 5 percentage points since his first week in office.

All of this is good information that validates that we are not crazy: Trump's destructive policies and unlawful activity are broadly unpopular—and becoming more so over time.

But the Gallup poll shows that Republicans overwhelmingly support Trump's policies and Democrats overwhelmingly disapprove of them. Independents strongly disapprove, a factor that tilts the totals against Trump. Per Gallup:

Ninety-three percent of Republicans, 37% of independents and 4% of Democrats approve of Trump’s job performance overall. Republicans also broadly approve of the president’s handling of immigration (92%), foreign affairs (90%), the economy (90%) and foreign trade (89%). Another 80% of Republicans each approve of Trump’s handling of the situations in the Middle East and Ukraine.

At the same time, Democrats register single-digit approval ratings of Trump on all six issues measured. Aside from independents’ 40% rating for the president’s performance on immigration, their ratings range from 31% on the economy to 37% on foreign affairs.

The above numbers are highly instructive: There is almost nothing Trump can do to drive down his support among his Republican base—a cohort that represents about one-third of the electorate. That means that independents hold the key to electoral success—as always. As of now, independents disapprove of Trump by nearly two-thirds.

What do independent voters care about? Well, we know from their reaction to the last four weeks that they aren’t impressed with Trump's anti-immigrant, anti-LGBTQ+, anti-woke agenda. And they seem not to approve of his war on education, science, consumer protection, veterans’ healthcare, foreign aid, and Medicaid.

A handful of polls cannot give us a complete picture of a winning strategy. But the first polls of Trump’s second term suggest that nearly all of the analysis by pundits about “why” Democrats lost has been wrong. Everyone should be open-minded about the best way forward (including me). But no one should wait for final answers before acting to resist Trump's destructive and undemocratic agenda.

Talk to you tomorrow!

Daily Dose of Perspective

Galaxies M81 and M82 are approximately 12 million light-years from Earth. The photons captured in the image below began their journey ten million years before the first humans emerged on the savannas of Africa.