The Democratic Governing Minority

November 15, 2023

          House Democrats passed a continuing resolution that will keep tranches of the government open through January 19 and February 2, 2024, respectively—with 209 of 211 Democrats voting in favor of the bill. Republicans, on the other hand, could muster only 127 votes to support the bill, with 90 Republicans voting against the bill. In effect, Democrats acted as the governing party in the House despite their minority status. Without the (nearly) unanimous support of Democrats, the GOP majority in the House would be unable to govern. The world is upside down.

          Democrats also provided majority support for the prior continuing resolution, which passed by a nearly identical mix of Democrats and Republicans on September 30. When Kevin McCarthy relied on Democrats to pass the September continuing resolution, McCarthy was ousted as Speaker. There is no indication that House Republicans will fire Speaker Michael Johnson for committing the same act as McCarthy—yet.

          In achieving passage of the laddered continuing resolution, Speaker Johnson said “he won’t ever pass another short-term government funding bill.” Ouch! Shades of “Read my lips” and “Mission Accomplished”—premature declarations that Presidents Bush I and Bush II lived to regret.

          The House has only 21 working days to pass 11 spending bills necessary to fund the 2024 budget. Although the House has passed 7 bills, those include deep cuts that violate the agreement that Republicans made with Joe Biden last May. As a practical matter, the House will need to negotiate and approve 11 bills in the next 21 legislative days. History suggests that chances are low that Republicans will be able to work quickly enough and achieve the unity necessary to meet that marker.

          Despite the above complications, we should be thankful that Democrats once again remained united in stewarding the economy through the chaos of a Republican-controlled House. We will likely need Democratic unity in the first quarter of 2024 to keep the government operating in an orderly fashion.

Speaking of congressional dysfunction . . . .

          Like their House colleagues, Senate Republicans have been sowing chaos by allowing Senator Tommy Tuberville to hold up confirmation of hundreds of senior military appointments. On Tuesday, the Senate Rules Committee passed a “bipartisan standing order” to allow the “en bloc consideration of military nominations – with the exception of nominees to the Joint Chiefs of Staff and combatant commanders.” See Rules Committee Votes 9-7 to Advance Resolution to Override Tuberville’s Blockade of Merit-Based Military Promotions | Senator Jack Reed (senate.gov).

          The “standing order” is not a “rules change” and will remain in effect only until January 3, 2025—the end of the 118th Congress. But the damage is done. Senator Tuberville delayed the approval for 350 senior military officers from being promoted, receiving pay raises, and taking on new assignments. Those delays and economic losses will never be recouped by the affected military personnel and their families.

          Even with the standing order, Senators must garner 60 votes to invoke cloture and overcome the filibuster rule. But that is a significant improvement over the situation in which a single Senator can prevent all Senators from voting on military appointments by the president.

          The change is small progress for which we should be grateful. Democrats should remind voters early and often that Republicans failed to support senior officers and their families because Tuberville wanted to force women in the military to abide by the draconian restrictions on reproductive liberty in the states to which they are assigned.

Another good report on inflation.

          The Consumer Price Index did not increase in October according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics: See Consumer Price Index Summary - 2023 M10 Results.

          Per the Bureau,

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in September . . . . Over the last 12 months, the “all items index” increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

          In short, the annual inflation rate is 3.2% for the CPI-U. That is a huge improvement over the torrid inflation rate in the first two quarters in 2022. Consumers may not feel like inflation was “flat” in October because the price of some items was increasing while others were decreasing. Most consumers only notice the items that are increasing in price . . . .

          In any event, things are getting better. The link above takes you to the official government report on inflation through October (in case you need to cite to the authoritative source). See also CNBC, CPI report October 2023: Inflation flat from the prior month, core CPI at 2-year low.

          Unfortunately, the good economic news is being underplayed by the media. If instead of non-existent inflation in October, the Bureau of Labor reported that food prices were up 5%, we can be certain that every media outlet would be standing in line at grocery stores interviewing consumers as they pay for overpriced Thanksgiving turkeys . . . . If you get the opportunity, spread the good word about the strong US economy!

It's not just Trump who is looking to impose a fascist state . . . .

          Ohio voters amended their constitution to declare “Every individual has a right to make and carry out one’s own reproductive decisions . . . .” The language and intent of the amendment make clear that laws that restrict “the right to make reproductive decisions” violate Ohio’s constitution. At the time the amendment was passed (and through today), Ohio courts decide if existing laws are invalid under the state constitution.

          But Republicans in the Ohio legislature have drafted a bill that would strip Ohio courts of jurisdiction over cases involving the constitutional right to make reproductive decisions. According to the Ohio Capital-Journal, four Republican legislators are circulating a draft bill that provides as follows:

The Ohio General Assembly shall have the exclusive authority over implementing Ohio Issue 1. All jurisdiction is hereby withdrawn from and denied to the Courts of Common Pleas and all other courts of the State of Ohio.

The draft legislation would also “immediately dismiss” all lawsuits or claims in court and would “vacate” all decisions made by a court, the draft continues. Being found guilty of this could lead to a misdemeanor, which would make it an impeachable offense.

See Ohio Capital-Journal, Some Ohio GOP lawmakers attempting to undermine democratic process after voters protect abortion.

          Ohio Republicans sit in legislative seats that have been gerrymandered into permanent political control of the legislature. In response to the people expressing their will, a handful of Republican legislators are proposing to usurp the judicial functions of interpreting and applying the state constitution to laws passed by the legislature. The proposal is not only anti-democratic but also fascistic. It proposes to set the legislature above the people as their rulers rather than as servants and representatives of the people.

          Limiting the function and jurisdiction of Ohio courts to overturn the will of the people is despicable. Let’s hope that Ohioans rise against this outrage the same way that the people of Wisconsin responded to the threat to impeach Justice Janet Protasiewicz immediately after her resounding electoral victory.

The best analysis of the political landscape going into 2024.

          Substack author Michael Podhorzer has taken the political world by storm with his deep insights into the problems of horserace polling in the age of Maga extremism. He continues to write exceptional articles on the outlook for 2024. His latest is here: Michael Podhorzer, The Off-Year Election Variants of Mad Poll Disease.

          If you are anxious about 2024, you must read this piece. Podhorzer does not make predictions about 2024. Rather, he examines the current composition of the electorate and concludes that the race will be close in 2024, that it will be decided in swing states, and that Democrats have a natural advantage assuming they can motivate strong turnout.

          Podhorzer’s article is not a “demography is destiny” piece. Rather, he starts with the bedrock observation that for 178 million voters, the choice in every election since 2016 has been “Trump/Maga or not.” That binary choice engulfs and overwhelms the dozens of issues that are micro-manifestations of two different worldviews: Maga extremism or pluralistic democracy.

          The key observation of Podhorzer’s article is that pollsters must assess their data through a lens that accounts for this fundamental division in American politics.

          Below are a few snippets, but I highly recommend that you set aside thirty minutes and enjoy a cup of tea or coffee as you absorb the entire article. Again, Podhorzer doesn’t say we will win; he says we can win. That is all we need to know in order to continue our fight with confidence and enthusiasm—despite the silly polls being peddled by major media outlets.

          Podhorzer writes:

[I]t’s crucial to approach the 2024 election beginning with the recognition that about 178 million Americans have cast at least one ballot on the “Trump/MAGA or not” question. (That’s about three quarters of those eligible to vote.)

Tuesday’s election returns confirmed that the anti-MAGA majority is still the most important, and least discussed, fact about American politics today. 

[I]n swing states, while 2016 voters lean Republican, post-2016 voters lean Democrat. 

I know it sounds insultingly obvious to say that Biden’s victory depends on turning out his supporters (or Trump’s opponents). That’s the point. 

More on the Supreme Court code of conduct.

          Despite my stridency in criticizing the Supreme Court’s illusory Code of Conduct in yesterday’s newsletter, I spent a fair amount of time toning down my criticism. For example, I wrote (and then deleted) the phrase that “the justices—all of them—should be ashamed of themselves.” I thought that might be too harsh as a collective judgment that swept in the Court’s liberal justices.

          So, I was gratified to see that Ian Millhiser of Vox wrote what I was too timid to write:

The code is so weak that it serves to legitimize Clarence Thomas’s corruption. It is literally worse than nothing.

All nine of the justices, who signed their names to this code, should be ashamed of themselves. The new code imposes no meaningful obligations on the justices. It explicitly disclaims any desire to do so.

It accuses the Court’s critics of “misunderstanding” the justices’ past behavior, when it really isn’t hard to understand the ethical implications of taking a $500,000 gift from a major political donor.

See Ian Millhiser in Vox, The Supreme Court’s new ethics code is an unenforceable joke.

Update on sending copies of Heather Cox Richardson’s books.

          Thanks to everyone who volunteered to send a copy of Heather Cox Richardson’s new book, Democracy Awakening, to other readers who are unable to purchase or obtain it from the library. I will be in touch with everyone on Wednesday with instructions on how to proceed. Thank you for your generosity!

Concluding Thoughts.

          The project to share HCR’s book with readers of the newsletter has served to remind me of a point I made frequently in the early days of this newsletter. Some readers live at home alone or in assisted care facilities and have limited opportunities to interact with others. The Covid pandemic made the isolation worse and disrupted longstanding social and family traditions. Some of us may have moved on after the pandemic, but many senior readers are still in the same situation—only with less contact than before the pandemic.

          One of the great things about the grassroots movement is that it is built on community. That community is a natural place to welcome and learn from Americans who lived through world-changing and nation-shaping events. And their continued dedication and persistence serve as an example to us all. As we head into the holidays, now is a good time to re-establish relationships and connections that have been affected by the events of the last three years.

          Talk to you tomorrow!