Tempering our anxiety.

October 19, 2022

          After two days of panic caused by shifting polls, we have a few data points to temper our collective anxiety. Polls are polls, but votes decide elections. In states where early voting has begun, there are strong signals of record turnout. When more voters vote, Democrats do better. In Georgia, first-day early voting broke records. See CNBC, Georgia breaks first-day early voting record, nearly doubles figure from last midterms. The United States Election Project estimates that as of last Friday, 1.4 million voters have cast ballots in early voting—mainly in Virginia, Florida, and Wisconsin. See NBC, Analysis: Early voting passes 1 million vote mark for midterms. Per NBC,

[The] data also shows that more Democrats than Republicans are voting early in 2022, a change from earlier elections in which traditionally more Republicans voted early.

53 percent of early votes are from Democrats, while 31 percent are from Republicans, according to early voting from states who release party registration data.

          So, when you combine indications of record early turnout with the fact that more Democrats are voting early, Democrats have reason for hope. Of course, early voting advantages can be overwhelmed by Election Day votes, but it could be otherwise. Early voting could be depressed, or Republicans could be showing up in greater numbers than Democrats. With both of those factors favoring Democrats, the path to victory remains open.

          And then there is this: Voter registration is up among women and young voters. See, e.g., Daily Kos, Report: More than 30% Increase in 18-yr-old Voter Registration in Just a Month in Phila. Area. The Daily Kos article refers to a report by The Civics Center, which focuses on registering eligible high school and college students. The Center reports that registration among the youngest voters in Philadelphia is up by 30%--enough to affect the margin of victory in a tight Pennsylvania race.

          As to the increase in registration among women, Tom Bonier reports,

[In Pennsylvania] women have accounted for >56% of new registrants [post-Dobbs]. Those women new registrants are 62% Democrats to 15% Republican and 54% are under the age of 25. Compare that to men new registrants at 41%  <25 and 43% Democratic compared to 28% Republican.

          If the new voter registrations post-Dobbs in Pennsylvania give Democrats 50,000 new voters (a reasonable estimate) motivated by Dobbs, that is more than enough to provide the margin of victory. It is difficult for pollsters to capture the effect of new voters motivated by Dobbs because the percentage of those new voters is small (about 1% of Pennsylvania’s total registered base of 9 million).

          To summarize, we are seeing record early turnout and increased registration among women and young voters who skew strongly Democratic. Those facts don’t guarantee anything for Democrats, but they do keep open the path to victory despite polling models that assume 2022 is like 2012. It is not. And don’t let anyone convince you otherwise.

Biden promises to send bill codifying Roe to Congress if Democrats hold majority.

          President Biden promised to send a bill codifying Roe if Democrats retain control of Congress in November. See Politico, Biden issues a 2023 pledge to Dems: Hold on to Congress and I’ll sign abortion rights into law. Biden’s promise is intended to generate turnout among Democratic voters on an issue that implicates reproductive liberty, privacy, and personal autonomy.

          On the other hand, Trump has attacked the GOP Senate candidate in Colorado, who is a pro-choice moderate Republican. See The Hill, Trump attack leaves GOP wondering if he cares about Senate majority. Trump called the GOP candidate a “RINO” and said that “MAGA doesn’t Vote for stupid people with big mouths.” Hmm. If it is true that MAGA doesn’t vote for stupid people with big mouths, what does that mean for MAGA’s support for Trump?

Another lawyer has sacrificed his reputation and legacy for Trump.

          John Durham was a respected US Attorney before Bill Barr appointed him as special counsel to investigate the origins of the investigation into Trump’s illicit dealings with Russia in 2016. Durham set aside his objectivity and prosecutorial judgment to pursue Trump’s enemies with a partisan vengeance. In three years, he brought two cases to trial that no reasonable prosecutor would have pursued. Predictably, both cases resulted in complete acquittals—the second acquittal coming on Tuesday. See Newsweek, Durham Blasted by Experts After New Acquittal: 'Laughed Out of Court Twice'. The reviews of Durham’s prosecutions have been deservedly harsh. Per Laurence Tribe,

[Durham’s] groundless mission has now failed yet again, putting yet another dismal marker on William Barr's shameful record as Trump's henchman and the worst Attorney General in our nation's history.

          Per CNN legal analyst Ellie Honig,

John Durham racks up another acquittal, this time on a case he tried personally. His investigation will go down as a shameful abuse of prosecutorial power in service of political vengeance. Juries - our most basic civilian bulwark - have firmly rebuked this abuse of power.

          John Durham has trashed his reputation to curry favor in Trumpworld. He will never reclaim a reputation built over a lifetime of service to the US. His disgrace—and that of many other lawyers—should be a flashing red light to any other lawyer tempted to defend Trump or promote his lies.

Republicans are serious about cutting Social Security and Medicare.

          In what can only be described as a death wish, the Republican Party appears to be serious about cutting Social Security and Medicare. See Talking Points Memo, Top Republicans Keep Talking About Plans To Cut Medicare And Social Security. Their plan involves holding the US debt ceiling and credit rating hostage if the GOP gains control of either chamber of Congress. Why do Republicans want to cut healthcare for 71 million Americans? Because they are concerned about “increasing the nation’s credit card limit.”

          While fiscal responsibility is important, there are two parts to the deficit equation: revenue and spending. Last time Republicans were in control of Congress, they slashed the revenue side of the equation by giving corporations a massive tax cut. They now want to “pay” for that corporate tax cut by cutting Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security That is simply heartless and cruel.

Reader engagement opportunity.

Brad Pfaff is running for Wisconsin’s 3rd congressional district. Brad is a state senator and farmer running against a January 6th insurrectionist. He is holding a virtual event October 19th. See the Comments section for details on the event and a link to a YouTube video of an ad with Brad’s message defending reproductive liberty.

Concluding Thoughts.

          In our Zoom fundraising call with US Senate candidate Tim Ryan on Tuesday, Tim talked about the many Republicans expressing support for his candidacy. They show up in unexpected places—like “house party” fundraisers, campaign stops, and neighborhood canvassing. They are Republicans who belong to unions or “the exhausted middle class” looking to the federal government to revitalize Ohio’s economy. Or they are men and women who are offended that the Supreme Court has restricted the freedom of women and is taking aim at other privacy rights. As Tim explains, these Republicans are “under-indexed” by polls that show Tim and J.D. Vance essentially tied—meaning that Tim may, in fact, have a lead in Ohio that is not being picked up by the polls.

          The point is that Tim Ryan’s experience is being repeated across America in states, congressional districts, and cities where some Republicans are tired of a party that intends to cut Medicare and install Marjorie Taylor Greene in a senior position in the Justice Department if Trump wins. They are tired of a party whose platform is built on divisiveness and gratuitous cruelty. To be sure, not all Republicans feel that way. But enough of them are fatigued by MAGA extremism to cross over to support Democrats (or stay home). We don’t have to win over all Republicans, just enough of them to claim a simple majority in an evenly divided electorate. That is still possible in dozens of key races across the nation. Damn the polls! Full speed ahead!

Talk to you tomorrow!