I am so disappointed with Garland and his (lack of) performance! As to Clarence Thomas, I have had little use for him since he was exonerated for his inexcusable behavior toward Anita Hill. The present situation involving his wife and her participation in an attempt to undermine this government convinces me that he should step down . . . maybe he already has? Do we really know the state of his health? We can't look to the Chief Justice to take care of this dilemma; I don't believe he has the courage. I am heartened by the appointment and almost assured confirmation of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the court; her presence will make a positive difference. I echo Cory Booker's enthusiastic comments.
As always, Robert, thank you for your insight; we appreciate the time and effort you put into your newsletter.
You properly recognize one important truth that the President stated yesterday but there was another in his answer that is perhaps equally important - "you're playing a game with me" - and it's high time that the media actors portraying journalists stopped playing games, especially those that undermine this country's stance in a situation that approaches a state of war.
The rest of your letter I agree with wholeheartedly, and, if he cannot bestir himself to act, Mr. Garland should do us all a great favor and resign.
Indeed, Garland should resign—or be asked to by the President who appointed him. His “deliberative” approach might have benefitted the Court, but his behavior as AG is appalling. We can only hope that Clarence Thomas leaves the Court of his own volition. He’s been a glaring mistake from the beginning. Thank you, Robert, for continuing to speak openly about these outrages.
I think Merrick Garland should resign. His conduct is more becoming to a thoughtful judge. His inaction is literally letting people get away with crimes. It’s time for him to go.
It's almost as though the AG position was a consolation prize for not getting on the Court but we'd all have been better of leaving him on the Appeals Court where he already had a strong positive reputation.
Exactly! Was the seat that was Scalia’s stolen by Mitch McConnell? Absolutely it was! Would Garland have made a fine justice? Yes! I do not think he has the temperament for AG. He is operating in another time. The Republicans treat politics as a blood sport. He is not defending the Constitution by his inaction. We have never had such a criminal president as tRump. The Republicans saw how they could use him to their advantage; they ALWAYS play to whatever advantage they have. They don’t care about howls of outrage at their egregious behavior. We don’t have to descend to the level of the r’s, but damn! Hold people accountable for their crimes, be it Donald Trump, Ginni Thomas, Mark Meadows, whoever. No one should be above the law, and AG Garland is letting people get away with breaking the law. High visibility and elected office should not help people commit crimes. In fact, those should be aggravating circumstances. Argh 😖 😖😖!!!!!
I don't consider these people "journalists" - they are trying to make news and get ahead in their line of work. I don't know what to call them, but they are not doing the work for which they were employed. Was it Kaitlan Collins again? Just wondering.
The reporters/actors are at fault to be sure, but the news organizations themselves are, in my opinion, more to blame. They hire the actors; they dictate what stories are covered and what stories are used.
That's why I referred to them as actors portraying journalists and, IMO, Hoffman and Redford in All the President's Men did a better job of portraying much better journalists than anyone around now.
I don't know who the reporter was, the story simply identified the network as CBS.
I share Robert's assessment of the craven behavior of Chief Justice Roberts (not surprising) and of AG Garland (deeply disappointing.) But I believe that the nearly daily dose of outrageous revelations WILL eventually rouse these "institutionalists" from their torpor. We appear to be dependent on the insanity of the far right to save us, while the excessive decency of so many of our natural allies leads to inaction. Thankfully, Today's Edition offers constant reminders of our sadly neglected duty to overcome this flagrantly anti-Constitutional behavior--sadly condoned by a large but shrinking minority of Americans.
As always, thank you Robert, for this newsletter and for your outrage. I am very disappointed with Garland, but not in the least bit surprised. My husband, an incredibly politically well informed person (told me 2 days in advance to look out for McCain's VP pick Sarah Palin), has long said that Obama picked Garland to be on the Supreme Court precisely because he was a milquetoast choice. Brilliant, articulate, yes. Courageous, trailbreaking, not in the least. Obama, in a terrible miscalculation, believed that this would give him bipartisan support. Why after 8 years of working with Republicans, Obama thought he could still get bipartisan support for anything, remains one of his greatest failings, but he thought namby, pamby middle of the road. Merrick Garland would get that. Had Obama gone bold, picked an African American woman as Biden did, McConnell would have had a much harder job delaying the nomination. That is old news, the consequences of which we are still living with today, but why Biden picked Garland is also a mystery and disappointment to me. I don't want to heap blame on Biden. He is doing a masterful job with Ukraine, but Garland was not the person for this time and nothing he is doing is a surprise. I know Biden cannot and will not interfere with DOJ policy, but Garland works at the discretion of the President, and I hope that this President can see that his lack of action is adding to the decline of democracy as we know it.
The stereotypical American movie, book, story, and tv series, makes sure that evil is overcome with good, and that truth prevails.
If a lying, cheating (on his wives and his taxes), soulless, power-hungry, greedy, narcissist Trump get away with his crimes, it will destroy a shared American core tenet that we once all held dear. Parents who abjure their children to tell the truth and be kind, will hear children retort: "Why? Trump got away with it." So did Clarence Thomas who lied to Congress about Anita Hill, and Brett Kavanaugh, who lied about Christine Blasey Ford.
Shame on Merrick Garland if he keeps sipping tea, while Trump's criminal cabal triumphs.
The only thing worse for the nation than prosecuting Trump is not prosecuting Trump. BTW, I would respect Garland if he said, "I looked at the evidence, and there is no basis to prosecute Trump." At least then we could have a conversation about the conclusion. Now, we have a yawning, ineffable black hole of silence.
After reading these successive criticism of Merrick Garland, I've found myself initiating Google searches asking why said person is such a ****, but I realized that in fact I still feel somewhat in the dark about what in the world the DOJ is doing and if there is reason behind it. I admit, I've only done a very preliminary level of research to understand. But I'm wondering, do you have specific recommendations about how to force the DOJ to engage more with the American people? The DOJ's lack of transparency seems to be their biggest problem and I'd certainly spend some time letting them know that if you have suggestions how.
The DOJ is designed to be insulated from political persuasion. That is a good thing . . . In normal times. But we have an ex president actively plotting a second coup. That's not normal and calls for the DOJ to rise above its institutionalist constraints. BTW, I will say here in response to all of the posts about Merrick Garland that DOJ alumni continually tell me I am impatient and in the dark about how the DOJ works. My readers who worked for the DOJ tell me that the silence from Merrick Garland indicates that he is working assiduously to build an airtight case against Trump. I hope they are right.
This has been my thought all along (what the people who are veteran's of the DOJ and how it works). And, if grand juries are supposed to be private, it is possible there already are some seated and underway. Also, knowing Biden as we now really do, I don't think he'd put up with an inadequate response from the DOJ with the clock ticking down toward the next coup attempt. But then, I was one of the many who looked forward to honest Bill Barr's summary of the Mueller Report. I have very strong and mostly correct intuition. Where I have erred, however, is in thinking people will want, and try to be, their best selves. So, I'm watching the clock and don't think it is too late for good things to be happening behind the scenes at the DOJ. Always good to apply the pressure, though, Robert, so this post is not intended to slow you down on that score:-) Thank you!
"...former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul said ... he did not see a difference between providing Stinger anti-aircraft missiles or fighter aircraft to Ukraine. While McFaul’s argument has some logical merit, he does not have access to the military intelligence that has caused the U.S. to come to a different conclusion." "there are known knowns; .... things we know we know. .... there are known unknowns; ... some things we [know we] do not know. ...there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know." We don't know what McFaul knows. We don't know what the military intelligence knows. We do know that McFaul is widely respected for his understanding of Russia. We also know that Joe Biden is a cautious man. While imposing crippling sanctions on Russia, sanctions that are punishments for the behavior of the country's leadership, Joe Biden is taking every step he can to avoid provoking a hot war between Russia and the US. I admire Joe Biden. I admire his caution. I just wish he/someone could find a way by which Ukraine could obtain fighter aircraft that left the US without culpability.
I don’t understand why the Ukrainian pilots can’t go, maybe even one at a time, to Poland and fly the fighter jets out of there. The planes should be fully checked out, fueled, and armed when they fly out in case they are met by a Russian fighter plane on their way into Ukraine.
Time to bust our behinds to increase our lead in the Senate and at least hold it in the House so we can expand the Supreme Court. I no longer see any other answer.
I have such a pit in my stomach about what seems to me to be the lose of our justice system. If the Supreme Court and the DOJ can’t be counted on to do the right thing, where does it leave the future of our country?
We will endure. We have endured racist Supreme Courts that ruled Blacks were not, and never would be, "persons." It will take time, but Clarence and Ginni Thomas will be viewed by history as faithless servants of democracy who attempted to overturn the will of the people. And John Roberts will forever be remembered as the cipher who believed that former slaveholding states had rid themselves of the urge to discriminate against former enslaved people.
An excellent summary of our current situation. Outrage is required in the face of malfeasance. No, let's call it what it is: failure to fulfill one's duties. What you do isn't baseball, but it's fine to swing for the fences. The attempt alone raises spirits!
The disappointment in Merrick Garland seems warranted. Maybe, unbelievably, not getting appointed to the Supreme Court was a good thing. His actions, or non-actions, would indicate that he's in the tank for the GOP.
It's clear now that we no longer have a functional "justice" system in America with Merrick Garland at the helm of the DOJ, a sitting Supreme Court Justice who is married to a woman active in the recent effort to undermine the processes of democracy, and a New York prosecutor who refused to charge Trump based on irrefutable evidence of his financial crimes. I just want to express my gratitude to you for "giving voice to the outrage that people are feeling over events that have been normalized or ignored in the constant outrage that has become the norm." Believe me, there's plenty of outrage here; Merrick Garland, Clarence Thomas and Chief Justice Roberts must be challenged and held accountable for their failure to uphold their oaths to defend the Constitution and do their duty. But where are the judges willing to stand up for democracy and the rule of law? Where are the true patriots who will, "act with urgency" as you put it? I doubt we will find such individuals amongst the slimy reptiles now lurking in the Swamp. It's up to us, We, the People, to rise up in solidarity against the forces of fascism destroying America. A las Brarricadas!
Because Robert concluded by sanctioning expressions of outrage, I write, in part, to vent a bit of my own. I’m outraged by those, despite apparent threats nearly everywhere we look, who don’t fully appreciate how precious basic liberal democracy is, how hard it is to cultivate, and how hard it is to sustain.
If we’re now in an era wherein liberal democracy and openness between nations is backsliding, then what’s largely going to rescue us is us and, perhaps, the Ukrainians, who, in large measure, are showing us the way. Accordingly, let’s give them everything they say they need short of us provoking a shooting war with a nuclear power.
Russia’s real problems are severe, long term, and constrain both its current situation and its future -
This post’s supporting materials it links to are long and complex but are essential to understand Russia’s real problems that impact both its current challenges and long term situation.
In the late 1990’s my former financial technology company had an opportunity to expand our global footprint into Russia. We had done a large contract with a large Russian bank and successfully delivered that project. We had as a result a pipeline of future opportunities in the Russian market built following the dissolution of the U.S.S.R. that indicated some promise for that market. However, due to the state-owned and controlled nature of the market and the consequent Russian procurement market it would have required a significant investment to realize that promise. Hence, before making that investment, we undertook a very detailed and thorough study of the nature and future of Russia to be sure we thoroughly understood Russia, doing business there, and associated pros and cons. After that study we decided to withdraw from that market and not to do any further business there. It was our conclusion that Russia had severe immediate and long-term challenges that would constrain our opportunity to successfully exploit that market opportunity.
Watching the present challenges Russia is experiencing and a building chaos within its government and commercial power structures, I believe these could easily have been predicted and will get much worse and represent greater risk both for Russia and the rest of the world as Putin feels increasingly threatened. The problems he faces are large and unlikely to be solvable within the current system or in the near to intermediate future. As his and Russia’s situation becomes more desperate he is likely to become more erratic and unpredictable. I cannot forecast with any degree of confidence potential endings except to say I cannot foresee any that end well for Russia, Ukraine, or the world at large. That is of great concern.
Russia suffers from all of the following severe constraints in each of these areas - demography, intellectual capital, and physical infrastructure. Further, though our own study of Russia is now almost two decades old, Russia has chosen not to invest in addressing those challenges instead investing in effectively in an inefficient military and the industrial sectors supporting it. That under investment in addressing Russia’s real constraints has been further eroded by the kleptocratic nature of its controlling elite in both government and industry.
To understand this issue in depth I am linking to some of the original material on Russia we studied in depth as well as some updated insights. These are not short reads but examine and explain Russia’s real challenges in depth.
National Intelligence Council Report, December 2000 - Russia's Physical and Social Infrastructure: Implications for Future Development:
Careful and thorough analyses such as these and examination in depth of them is a hallmark of a competent government and its National Security establishment. It requires intellectual capacity and discipline throughout our government intelligence, military, and diplomatic corps. Fortunately, the Biden administration has those people and resources. Competence, intellectual capacity and discipline were not hallmarks or present in the Trump administration. In fact, these were not seen as important at all. Instead what was prized was personal loyalty and fealty to the intellectual sloth at its peak.
Thank God we have restored a level of competence to our federal government. Let us all work hard to keep it in place. What is presently happening in the world should remind us how important this is.
Hi, Bruce. Thanks for the links. I will review this weekend when I have a bit more time. I always appreciate it when readers provide helpful reference materials. Also, good use of paragraph breaks in a lengthy post--helps with readability.
I am so disappointed with Garland and his (lack of) performance! As to Clarence Thomas, I have had little use for him since he was exonerated for his inexcusable behavior toward Anita Hill. The present situation involving his wife and her participation in an attempt to undermine this government convinces me that he should step down . . . maybe he already has? Do we really know the state of his health? We can't look to the Chief Justice to take care of this dilemma; I don't believe he has the courage. I am heartened by the appointment and almost assured confirmation of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the court; her presence will make a positive difference. I echo Cory Booker's enthusiastic comments.
As always, Robert, thank you for your insight; we appreciate the time and effort you put into your newsletter.
You properly recognize one important truth that the President stated yesterday but there was another in his answer that is perhaps equally important - "you're playing a game with me" - and it's high time that the media actors portraying journalists stopped playing games, especially those that undermine this country's stance in a situation that approaches a state of war.
The rest of your letter I agree with wholeheartedly, and, if he cannot bestir himself to act, Mr. Garland should do us all a great favor and resign.
Indeed, Garland should resign—or be asked to by the President who appointed him. His “deliberative” approach might have benefitted the Court, but his behavior as AG is appalling. We can only hope that Clarence Thomas leaves the Court of his own volition. He’s been a glaring mistake from the beginning. Thank you, Robert, for continuing to speak openly about these outrages.
I think Merrick Garland should resign. His conduct is more becoming to a thoughtful judge. His inaction is literally letting people get away with crimes. It’s time for him to go.
It's almost as though the AG position was a consolation prize for not getting on the Court but we'd all have been better of leaving him on the Appeals Court where he already had a strong positive reputation.
Exactly! Was the seat that was Scalia’s stolen by Mitch McConnell? Absolutely it was! Would Garland have made a fine justice? Yes! I do not think he has the temperament for AG. He is operating in another time. The Republicans treat politics as a blood sport. He is not defending the Constitution by his inaction. We have never had such a criminal president as tRump. The Republicans saw how they could use him to their advantage; they ALWAYS play to whatever advantage they have. They don’t care about howls of outrage at their egregious behavior. We don’t have to descend to the level of the r’s, but damn! Hold people accountable for their crimes, be it Donald Trump, Ginni Thomas, Mark Meadows, whoever. No one should be above the law, and AG Garland is letting people get away with breaking the law. High visibility and elected office should not help people commit crimes. In fact, those should be aggravating circumstances. Argh 😖 😖😖!!!!!
I don't consider these people "journalists" - they are trying to make news and get ahead in their line of work. I don't know what to call them, but they are not doing the work for which they were employed. Was it Kaitlan Collins again? Just wondering.
The reporters/actors are at fault to be sure, but the news organizations themselves are, in my opinion, more to blame. They hire the actors; they dictate what stories are covered and what stories are used.
That's why I referred to them as actors portraying journalists and, IMO, Hoffman and Redford in All the President's Men did a better job of portraying much better journalists than anyone around now.
I don't know who the reporter was, the story simply identified the network as CBS.
I share Robert's assessment of the craven behavior of Chief Justice Roberts (not surprising) and of AG Garland (deeply disappointing.) But I believe that the nearly daily dose of outrageous revelations WILL eventually rouse these "institutionalists" from their torpor. We appear to be dependent on the insanity of the far right to save us, while the excessive decency of so many of our natural allies leads to inaction. Thankfully, Today's Edition offers constant reminders of our sadly neglected duty to overcome this flagrantly anti-Constitutional behavior--sadly condoned by a large but shrinking minority of Americans.
As always, thank you Robert, for this newsletter and for your outrage. I am very disappointed with Garland, but not in the least bit surprised. My husband, an incredibly politically well informed person (told me 2 days in advance to look out for McCain's VP pick Sarah Palin), has long said that Obama picked Garland to be on the Supreme Court precisely because he was a milquetoast choice. Brilliant, articulate, yes. Courageous, trailbreaking, not in the least. Obama, in a terrible miscalculation, believed that this would give him bipartisan support. Why after 8 years of working with Republicans, Obama thought he could still get bipartisan support for anything, remains one of his greatest failings, but he thought namby, pamby middle of the road. Merrick Garland would get that. Had Obama gone bold, picked an African American woman as Biden did, McConnell would have had a much harder job delaying the nomination. That is old news, the consequences of which we are still living with today, but why Biden picked Garland is also a mystery and disappointment to me. I don't want to heap blame on Biden. He is doing a masterful job with Ukraine, but Garland was not the person for this time and nothing he is doing is a surprise. I know Biden cannot and will not interfere with DOJ policy, but Garland works at the discretion of the President, and I hope that this President can see that his lack of action is adding to the decline of democracy as we know it.
The stereotypical American movie, book, story, and tv series, makes sure that evil is overcome with good, and that truth prevails.
If a lying, cheating (on his wives and his taxes), soulless, power-hungry, greedy, narcissist Trump get away with his crimes, it will destroy a shared American core tenet that we once all held dear. Parents who abjure their children to tell the truth and be kind, will hear children retort: "Why? Trump got away with it." So did Clarence Thomas who lied to Congress about Anita Hill, and Brett Kavanaugh, who lied about Christine Blasey Ford.
Shame on Merrick Garland if he keeps sipping tea, while Trump's criminal cabal triumphs.
The only thing worse for the nation than prosecuting Trump is not prosecuting Trump. BTW, I would respect Garland if he said, "I looked at the evidence, and there is no basis to prosecute Trump." At least then we could have a conversation about the conclusion. Now, we have a yawning, ineffable black hole of silence.
First sentence says it ALL
After reading these successive criticism of Merrick Garland, I've found myself initiating Google searches asking why said person is such a ****, but I realized that in fact I still feel somewhat in the dark about what in the world the DOJ is doing and if there is reason behind it. I admit, I've only done a very preliminary level of research to understand. But I'm wondering, do you have specific recommendations about how to force the DOJ to engage more with the American people? The DOJ's lack of transparency seems to be their biggest problem and I'd certainly spend some time letting them know that if you have suggestions how.
The DOJ is designed to be insulated from political persuasion. That is a good thing . . . In normal times. But we have an ex president actively plotting a second coup. That's not normal and calls for the DOJ to rise above its institutionalist constraints. BTW, I will say here in response to all of the posts about Merrick Garland that DOJ alumni continually tell me I am impatient and in the dark about how the DOJ works. My readers who worked for the DOJ tell me that the silence from Merrick Garland indicates that he is working assiduously to build an airtight case against Trump. I hope they are right.
From your mouth to God's ear. Otherwise, Merrick Garland could be the best demonstration of the Peter Principle.
Oh glory, I remember Peter from my time working at Dept of AF in DC. Garland may very well be the best example outside of chump cult
Let's hope that Garland surprises us w/ indictments and some sort of accountability and justice for the Former Guy, his accomplices, and enablers.
This has been my thought all along (what the people who are veteran's of the DOJ and how it works). And, if grand juries are supposed to be private, it is possible there already are some seated and underway. Also, knowing Biden as we now really do, I don't think he'd put up with an inadequate response from the DOJ with the clock ticking down toward the next coup attempt. But then, I was one of the many who looked forward to honest Bill Barr's summary of the Mueller Report. I have very strong and mostly correct intuition. Where I have erred, however, is in thinking people will want, and try to be, their best selves. So, I'm watching the clock and don't think it is too late for good things to be happening behind the scenes at the DOJ. Always good to apply the pressure, though, Robert, so this post is not intended to slow you down on that score:-) Thank you!
"...former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul said ... he did not see a difference between providing Stinger anti-aircraft missiles or fighter aircraft to Ukraine. While McFaul’s argument has some logical merit, he does not have access to the military intelligence that has caused the U.S. to come to a different conclusion." "there are known knowns; .... things we know we know. .... there are known unknowns; ... some things we [know we] do not know. ...there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know." We don't know what McFaul knows. We don't know what the military intelligence knows. We do know that McFaul is widely respected for his understanding of Russia. We also know that Joe Biden is a cautious man. While imposing crippling sanctions on Russia, sanctions that are punishments for the behavior of the country's leadership, Joe Biden is taking every step he can to avoid provoking a hot war between Russia and the US. I admire Joe Biden. I admire his caution. I just wish he/someone could find a way by which Ukraine could obtain fighter aircraft that left the US without culpability.
I don’t understand why the Ukrainian pilots can’t go, maybe even one at a time, to Poland and fly the fighter jets out of there. The planes should be fully checked out, fueled, and armed when they fly out in case they are met by a Russian fighter plane on their way into Ukraine.
Time to bust our behinds to increase our lead in the Senate and at least hold it in the House so we can expand the Supreme Court. I no longer see any other answer.
I have such a pit in my stomach about what seems to me to be the lose of our justice system. If the Supreme Court and the DOJ can’t be counted on to do the right thing, where does it leave the future of our country?
We will endure. We have endured racist Supreme Courts that ruled Blacks were not, and never would be, "persons." It will take time, but Clarence and Ginni Thomas will be viewed by history as faithless servants of democracy who attempted to overturn the will of the people. And John Roberts will forever be remembered as the cipher who believed that former slaveholding states had rid themselves of the urge to discriminate against former enslaved people.
Thank you, thank you for your comments regarding Justices Roberts and Thomas, and the astonishing disappointment of Merrick Garland.
An excellent summary of our current situation. Outrage is required in the face of malfeasance. No, let's call it what it is: failure to fulfill one's duties. What you do isn't baseball, but it's fine to swing for the fences. The attempt alone raises spirits!
The disappointment in Merrick Garland seems warranted. Maybe, unbelievably, not getting appointed to the Supreme Court was a good thing. His actions, or non-actions, would indicate that he's in the tank for the GOP.
It's clear now that we no longer have a functional "justice" system in America with Merrick Garland at the helm of the DOJ, a sitting Supreme Court Justice who is married to a woman active in the recent effort to undermine the processes of democracy, and a New York prosecutor who refused to charge Trump based on irrefutable evidence of his financial crimes. I just want to express my gratitude to you for "giving voice to the outrage that people are feeling over events that have been normalized or ignored in the constant outrage that has become the norm." Believe me, there's plenty of outrage here; Merrick Garland, Clarence Thomas and Chief Justice Roberts must be challenged and held accountable for their failure to uphold their oaths to defend the Constitution and do their duty. But where are the judges willing to stand up for democracy and the rule of law? Where are the true patriots who will, "act with urgency" as you put it? I doubt we will find such individuals amongst the slimy reptiles now lurking in the Swamp. It's up to us, We, the People, to rise up in solidarity against the forces of fascism destroying America. A las Brarricadas!
Because Robert concluded by sanctioning expressions of outrage, I write, in part, to vent a bit of my own. I’m outraged by those, despite apparent threats nearly everywhere we look, who don’t fully appreciate how precious basic liberal democracy is, how hard it is to cultivate, and how hard it is to sustain.
If we’re now in an era wherein liberal democracy and openness between nations is backsliding, then what’s largely going to rescue us is us and, perhaps, the Ukrainians, who, in large measure, are showing us the way. Accordingly, let’s give them everything they say they need short of us provoking a shooting war with a nuclear power.
Russia’s real problems are severe, long term, and constrain both its current situation and its future -
This post’s supporting materials it links to are long and complex but are essential to understand Russia’s real problems that impact both its current challenges and long term situation.
In the late 1990’s my former financial technology company had an opportunity to expand our global footprint into Russia. We had done a large contract with a large Russian bank and successfully delivered that project. We had as a result a pipeline of future opportunities in the Russian market built following the dissolution of the U.S.S.R. that indicated some promise for that market. However, due to the state-owned and controlled nature of the market and the consequent Russian procurement market it would have required a significant investment to realize that promise. Hence, before making that investment, we undertook a very detailed and thorough study of the nature and future of Russia to be sure we thoroughly understood Russia, doing business there, and associated pros and cons. After that study we decided to withdraw from that market and not to do any further business there. It was our conclusion that Russia had severe immediate and long-term challenges that would constrain our opportunity to successfully exploit that market opportunity.
Watching the present challenges Russia is experiencing and a building chaos within its government and commercial power structures, I believe these could easily have been predicted and will get much worse and represent greater risk both for Russia and the rest of the world as Putin feels increasingly threatened. The problems he faces are large and unlikely to be solvable within the current system or in the near to intermediate future. As his and Russia’s situation becomes more desperate he is likely to become more erratic and unpredictable. I cannot forecast with any degree of confidence potential endings except to say I cannot foresee any that end well for Russia, Ukraine, or the world at large. That is of great concern.
Russia suffers from all of the following severe constraints in each of these areas - demography, intellectual capital, and physical infrastructure. Further, though our own study of Russia is now almost two decades old, Russia has chosen not to invest in addressing those challenges instead investing in effectively in an inefficient military and the industrial sectors supporting it. That under investment in addressing Russia’s real constraints has been further eroded by the kleptocratic nature of its controlling elite in both government and industry.
To understand this issue in depth I am linking to some of the original material on Russia we studied in depth as well as some updated insights. These are not short reads but examine and explain Russia’s real challenges in depth.
National Intelligence Council Report, December 2000 - Russia's Physical and Social Infrastructure: Implications for Future Development:
https://irp.fas.org/nic/russia.html
Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli, November 2021:
https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/
Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) - The State of the Russian Economy: Balancing Political and Economic Priorities, (July 2021)
https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/state-russian-economy-balancing-political-and-economic-priorities/
Careful and thorough analyses such as these and examination in depth of them is a hallmark of a competent government and its National Security establishment. It requires intellectual capacity and discipline throughout our government intelligence, military, and diplomatic corps. Fortunately, the Biden administration has those people and resources. Competence, intellectual capacity and discipline were not hallmarks or present in the Trump administration. In fact, these were not seen as important at all. Instead what was prized was personal loyalty and fealty to the intellectual sloth at its peak.
Thank God we have restored a level of competence to our federal government. Let us all work hard to keep it in place. What is presently happening in the world should remind us how important this is.
Hi, Bruce. Thanks for the links. I will review this weekend when I have a bit more time. I always appreciate it when readers provide helpful reference materials. Also, good use of paragraph breaks in a lengthy post--helps with readability.
Bravo! for your expressions of outrage & descriptions of Justice Roberts ("milquetoast"!) and Merrick Garland sipping his tea!!! 😡