Some good news.

January 17, 2023

          Stick around for your daily dose of optimism in the Concluding Thoughts section! Heck, why not start with some good news for a change? And who better to deliver that news than our former President, who liked the job so much he attempted a coup to stay in office? Let me give some background and then deliver the good news.

          Millions of Americans (including yours truly) have been disappointed and frustrated by the painfully slow start of the D.O.J. investigation of the ringleaders of the insurrection and attempted coup. As one reader (Linda from Evanston, Ill.) posted in the Comments to yesterday's newsletter:

The results of the 2016 election really have given me and others in my family so much more anxiety. . . . Now I have grandchildren. What will their future hold? It's been 740 days since January 6, 2021. It's January 16, Martin Luther King Day . . . . I'm just waiting for Justice for our very fragile Democracy. Maybe tomorrow? It's been long enough!

          The good news for Linda—and all Americans—is that special counsel Jack Smith has rolled up his shirtsleeves and is doing the hard work necessary to determine if there are grounds to indict Trump. How do we know? Trump told us so over the weekend on his vanity social media platform:

The F.B.I. (Fake Bureau of Investigation) & the Department of Injustice, together with the Trump Hating Thug, Jack Smith, are interviewing, harassing, and subpoenaing people that work for me relative to the Boxes Hoax and the "Peacefully and Patriotically" speech I made at the January 6th protest of the Rigged and Stollen presidential election, where so many have been treated horribly and Unconstitutionally. This is a Gestapo-type operation! Are they doing this to the Biden people? I don't think so!

          Trump's post leaves no doubt: subpoenas are flying, witnesses are being interviewed, and co-conspirators feel the F.B.I. breathing down their necks. Good. That is the type of activity we should expect to leak from an ongoing, active investigation. While grand jury proceedings are confidential, witnesses are under no obligation to refrain from speaking to friends, neighbors, and the media about contacts from the FBI. And apparently, Trump's former friends and associates are informing Trump (and his lawyers) every time one of them has an interaction with the F.B.I. Tellingly, Trump mentions inquiries about his theft of national defense secrets and his incitement of the insurrection on January 6th.

          Although it is difficult to know for certain, the activities described by Trump appear to be consistent with the early stages of an investigation—as opposed to an investigation that is wrapping up. But at this point, concrete evidence of substantial forward movement is a welcome relief. Moreover, Jack Smith has a reputation for being a quick study who does not delay in making his prosecutorial judgments.

          There is, of course, no guarantee that Smith will recommend indictment of Trump for anything. But the fact that he is taking the steps necessary to make that decision is heartening. For Americans like Linda, who are "waiting for Justice for our very fragile Democracy," we have renewed grounds for hope.

Republicans are unclear on the concept of negotiating.

          Republicans in the House have been telling anyone who will listen that they will take the debt ceiling as a hostage to force Democrats to cut spending on Social Security and Medicare. Hostage-taking is inconsistent with good faith negotiations—a concept that appears to elude Republicans.

          Rep. James Comer repeated the hostage threat over the weekend when he said the following on a Sunday talk show: "So, the Senate is going to have to recognize the fact that we're not going to budge until we see meaningful reform with respect to spending."

          President Biden has stated several times that he will not negotiate with Republicans over budget cuts if they use the debt ceiling as a hostage. Republicans are shocked, offended, and puzzled that Biden will not negotiate with them if they threaten to destroy the global economy to get what they want. GOP Rep. Don Bacon whined on ABC's "This Week" about Biden's refusal to negotiate with terrorists:

When President Biden says he's just going to refuse to negotiate with Republicans on any concessions, I don't think that's right . . . . President Biden has to negotiate. He can't say he refuses to negotiate.

See Talking Points Memo, G.O.P. Complains That Biden Administration Won't Negotiate With Terrorists On Debt Limit.

          As I noted in yesterday's newsletter, Republicans are quickly coming to understand that they have painted themselves into a negotiating corner from which there is no graceful escape. If your opening offer is a "Take-it-or-leave-it" demand tied to a nuclear threat, if your opponent refuses to "Take it," you have nowhere to go after your opponent says, "No thanks. I'll leave it."

          The absurdity and unreality of the GOP threat to cut Social Security is driven home by recent polling. A CBS News / YouGov poll conducted last week found that 7 in 10 Americans rate "protecting Social Security and Medicare" as a "high priority" for the 118th Congress. Guess which demographic group ranks protecting Social Security and Medicare the highest? Answer: White Americans with no college degree (78%). (See page 65 of 77.) Guess which demographic group most strongly supports the Republican Party? White Americans with no college degree. It would be political suicide for Republicans to cut Medicare and Social Security.

          Republican House members have begun to change their rhetoric by saying they will "protect" Social Security—but in the same breath, talk about raising the retirement age for qualifying for Social Security benefits to 70. When Republican Rick Allen of Georgia was cornered in a Capitol hallway by a reporter last week, Allen justified raising the Social Security retirement age to 70 by claiming that people "actually want to work longer." Uh, no, they don't—at least they don't want to be forced to work longer before becoming eligible for Social Security. And to be clear, raising the retirement age is the same as cutting Social Security benefits. See Justifying Attack on Social Security, House Republican Claims People' Want to Work Longer' (commondreams.org).

          Here's my point: Republicans are backtracking on cutting Social Security so quickly that they are saying stupid things like, "People want to work longer" to justify cutting benefits. While none of this guarantees that Republicans won't crater the world economy, they now understand that their heated campaign demagoguery is indefensible. Whether they can work themselves out of the wet paper bag into which they have inserted themselves remains to be seen. But the dynamic has shifted in favor of rationality.

Concluding Thoughts.

          Although Biden’s staff continues to pour gasoline on the bonfire of classified documents discovered at his office and residences, the furor will abate to a background hum in the next week or so. Joyce Vance made a comment on Twitter that summarized the situation in a blazingly insightful fashion. She said,

          The detail that seems to be getting overlooked in the Biden documents stories: None of this would have come to light if Biden’s team had just stashed away what they found. We are where we are because they acted with honesty and integrity.  

          There it is: From the first moments of this sorry escapade, Biden has acted in a manner consistent with his innocence—and respect for the rule of law. It just doesn’t get any better than that.

          And when we get past this episode, people will realize that things are looking up for all Americans. As Paul Krugman writes in an op-ed in the NYTimes, if the midterms were rerun today, Democrats would likely win full control of Congress. See Paul Krugman in NYTimes, Opinion | Will It Be Morning in Joe Biden's America? To be sure, there is not much comfort in imagining that we have control over Congress when we do not. But Krugman’s point is that the economy and political landscape have shifted in Biden’s favor. He writes:

President Biden's approval ratings are rising. Inflation is down, and consumers are feeling more optimistic. And Americans are getting a better look at the G.O.P.'s actual policy agenda, which is deeply unpopular.

Which raises a question few would have asked even a few months ago: Is Joe Biden—who, for the record, had a much better midterm than Ronald Reagan did in 1982—possibly headed for a "morning in America" moment?

[T]o the extent that the economic landscape shapes the political landscape, things look far better for Democrats now than almost anyone imagined until very recently.

          Does Biden’s post-election bump in favorability due to increasing confidence in the economy matter? Yes. Biden will need all the goodwill he can muster as he stares down the hostage takers who want to ransom your retirement for more tax breaks for the wealthy. Biden is in a good position for that coming contest—and will be in a better position as soon as the media recovers its composure over the documents story. Given the short attention span of most journalists, we should reach the half-life of the story next week. It can’t happen soon enough. And when it does, Biden will continue to enjoy the fruits of his accomplishments from the 117th Congress.

          Talk to you tomorrow!