She did us a favor!

December 10, 2022

          Senator Kyrsten Sinema did a big favor for Democrats on Friday by conceding fifteen months ahead of time that she would lose the 2024 Democratic primary! She did so by announcing that she was switching her party registration from Democratic to Independent. After Democrats recovered from the shock, they learned that Sinema’s announcement was a selfish PR stunt that will not change the power structure in the Senate.

          Like Bernie Sanders (VT) and Angus King (ME), she will be an Independent who effectively operates as part of the Democratic majority. Although Sinema will not “caucus” with Democrats, she will vote for Senator Schumer to be Majority Leader. As a result, Schumer reassured nervous Democrats that

We will maintain our new majority on committees, exercise our subpoena power, and be able to clear nominees without discharge votes. 

          Most importantly, Schumer will not be required to “share power” with Mitch McConnell as he does now. As before, Sinema will be a drama queen and pain in the ***, so that dynamic will remain. See? Nothing has really changed!

          But what will Democrats do about 2024 if Sinema runs as an independent? Won’t that destroy Democratic hopes of keeping Sinema’s seat? I don’t think so.

          Arizona Democrats were going to run a primary opponent against Sinema in all events, so her defection from the Democratic party does not change that dynamic. Ruben Gallego is leading Sinema by 40% in early polling among Democrats. Sinema has an 18% favorability rating overall and a 5% approval rating among Democrats. If Sinema runs in 2024, she will be lucky to get 10% of the vote.

          Will Sinema cause Democrats to lose a Senate seat in Arizona? Who can say? The answer depends on many unknown contingencies. Will Republicans run another MAGA extremist? What will the economy be like? Will the Supreme Court overturn Obergefell? But two things are true: Sinema’s switch in registration changes nothing of substance, and we should plan to elect a Democrat to her seat in 2024. We can do that. In fact, we are in a good position to do so because Sinema has already begun to clear the field with her change in registration.

          Of course, I have not addressed the anger and sense of betrayal that Democrats rightly feel. Those feelings are justified and deserve to be expressed with passion and creativity—so let loose in the Comments section! (Comments are open to all readers this weekend)!

          I have already moved past the anger. Sinema is not worth it. Her career is over. She is all about herself and the money—and everyone knows it. She has helped Republicans deny Americans voting rights, abandoned women in the assault on their reproductive liberty, forced millions of children back into poverty, and prevented Biden from passing the largest social welfare bill in three generations. In the process, she was able to keep herself at the center of attention, the only discernable governing principle in her bizarre political journey.

          But Sinema’s defection highlights the importance of the victories by Raphael Warnock and every incumbent Democratic Senator who won re-election. Oddly, Sinema reminds us of our good fortune in having candidates like Raphael Warnock. And on that positive thought, I wish all of you a restful weekend.

          Talk to you on Monday!