Satire and reality become indistinguishable.

August 1, 2023

          The House Oversight Committee heard testimony from convicted fraudster Devon Archer about his business dealings with Hunter Biden. Archer has been convicted in a securities scheme that defrauded a Native American tribal entity out of millions of dollars of bonds issued by a subsidiary of the Oglala Sioux Tribe. Hunter Biden was not involved in the tribal bond scheme, but Hunter and Devon Archer were business partners in an unrelated investment firm while Archer was defrauding the Oglala Sioux tribal entity.

          The fact that Devon Archer is a convicted felon and was once in business with Hunter Biden made him a star witness before the House Oversight Committee as it attempts to prove that Hunter Biden entangled his father in illegal activity. That effort failed spectacularly on Monday—as has every prior effort by Chair James Comer to find evidence that Joe Biden engaged in criminal activity. Indeed, the takeaway from the Monday hearing was that Hunter Biden peddled the “illusion” of access to his famous father. See The Hill, Devon Archer debate focuses on Hunter Biden ‘illusion of access.

          Rep. Dan Goldman sat through the interview of Archer and gave the following report of the testimony:

Archer testified that because Hunter Biden was under pressure from Ukrainian energy company Burisma, “he had to give the illusion — and he used that term, the illusion — of access to his father, and he tried to get credit for things that he — that Mr. Archer testified Hunter had nothing to do with, such as when Vice President Biden went to Ukraine on his own.”

          To similar effect is a summary provided by Rep. Jamie Raskin:

Archer testified that “President Biden was not involved in his son’s business affairs, and that President Biden was never asked to, nor did he, take any official actions in relation to those business matters.”

          On the GOP side of the aisle, Rep. Andy Biggs (one of the key players in the 2020 attempted coup), gave the following summary:

“Burisma would have gone out of business sooner if the Biden brand had not been invoked. People would be intimidated to legally mess with Burisma because of the Biden family brand.”

          Uh, okay. So, “Burisma would have gone out of business sooner if the “Biden brand” had not been invoked.” Even if true, Biggs’s summary does not describe a crime. It describes the well-known human response where people are deferential to the rich and powerful. While I wish it were otherwise, there is nothing illegal in a natural human response to perceived hierarchical differences.

          The tragedy of Hunter Biden continues to generate misleading headlines on Fox News. While disconcerting for Democrats, we should remain confident that the GOP hearings are the equivalent of “bread and circuses” used by Roman emperors to placate the masses. And the “illusory” claims being pursued by Comer stand in stark contrast to the detailed evidence of Trump's criminal conduct in the defense secrets case and the attempted coup on January 6th.

The Republican primary circus.

          When satire and reality become indistinguishable, things are bad. The Borowitz Report published a satirical news item headlined, Trump Only a Few Indictments Away from Clinching G.O.P. Nomination | The New Yorker. Not to be outdone, The Onion reported that Trump Campaign Worried There Might Not Be Enough Indictments To Meet All Fundraising Goals.

          Ha, ha! Very funny. But on Monday, an early supporter of DeSantis—GOP Rep. Thomas Massie—suggested that DeSantis needed to be indicted to improve his standing with Republican voters: Massie Suggests Maybe DeSantis Should Get Indicted To Strengthen His 2024 Bid | Talking Points Memo. Massie said,

I’ve said we gotta figure out, we got to find some judge in Florida that’ll indict DeSantis quick, to close this indictment gap. It’s a truism that anytime someone is being persecuted, their camp rallies to their defense.

          Ouch! When the best available political strategy is “Get indicted,” it is time to declare defeat and go home. Indeed, in DeSantis’s effort to “reboot” his campaign, he suggested that he might not support a national abortion ban. That statement resulted in a furious condemnation by Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. See Politico, DeSantis’ latest comments slammed by anti-abortion group as ‘unacceptable’. DeSantis has run so far to the right of Trump, he is unelectable—and there is no going back.

          But Trump is on a losing streak as well. A judge in Georgia rejected Trump's latest effort to disqualify Fulton County D.A. Fani Willis. See Judge denies Trump's bid to quash Fulton County DA's probe into efforts to overturn Georgia election results - ABC News. And a Trump-appointed federal judge dismissed a Trump lawsuit against CNN for describing Trump's claims that Joe Biden stole the election as the “Big Lie.” See Salon, Trump loses bigly on "Big Lie": His own judge rules against him on bogus suit against CNN. As noted in the Salon article,

Judge Singhal [wrote] that CNN journalists and commentators calling out Trump's "Big Lie" were not making "factually false statements." Rather, they were stating opinions — and opinions, even those one may find "odious and repugnant," as the judge noted, cannot form the basis for a defamation action.

          And in a repeat of Trump's effort to extort Ukraine in response to fabricated “dirt” on Joe Biden, Trump has called on congressional Republicans to withhold all aid to Ukraine until “the Biden administration cooperates with their investigations into the president and his son Hunter Biden’s business dealings.” See WaPo, Trump calls for conditioning Ukraine aid on congressional Biden probes. (This article is accessible to all.)

          It is worth pausing on the outrageousness of Trump's demand. Russia is engaged in an unprovoked attack on Ukraine (that may be a model of attacks on NATO nations like Poland). Ukraine is fighting valiantly with the help of Western weapons, a fight that protects and promotes the interests of the US and its allies. And yet, Trump would subordinate those interests to his personal need for vengeance against the man who beat him in the 2020 presidential election. In the olden days (before Trump), any candidate who elevated his personal political interests over those of the US and its allies would be run out of the party before the end of a news cycle. With Trump, the threat barely received any attention in the major media.

          Finally, it is worth noting that the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board has suggested in a back-handed way that the GOP dump Trump and nominate someone who can beat President Biden. Last Friday, the WSJ Editorial Board reviewed the latest evidence of Trump's effort to “delete the server” containing surveillance tapes. The WSJ Editorial Board observed, “The episode reflects poorly on Mr. Trump.” Uh, yeah, you can say that again.

          But the crusty WSJ Board managed to rouse sufficient ire at Trump to suggest it is time to dump Trump. The Board wrote,

Mr. Trump still expects the GOP will save him from his own recklessness by nominating him for the White House a third time. He wants Republican voters, as he does Messrs. Nauta and De Oliveira, to take the fall with him.

Good luck if they do. The best revenge for Mr. Trump’s supporters would be to nominate a Republican who can beat Mr. Biden. That’s the way to restore apolitical justice.

See WSJ, Trump Is Charged With a Coverup (This article is accessible to all.)

Are high school graduates becoming more conservative?  

          The right wing has been abuzz with the notion that male high school graduates are “becoming more conservative.” That meme has been picked up and repeated by mainstream sources. See, e.g., The Hill, High school boys are trending conservative.

          Although there is a germ of truth in the story, the reality is that high school students are becoming more liberal in their views if you include female students—which seems like an important point, no?

          As the analysis in The Hill notes, the political leaning of high school boys has been relatively constant over the last twenty years, although they have become less liberal as of late:

The political leanings of young men have changed little over the past two decades, according to an analysis by the Survey Center on American Life. Last year, 43 percent of young men identified as moderate, 31 percent as conservative and 24 percent as liberal. Twenty years earlier, the numbers were more or less the same.

          But while high school boys have remained relatively constant in their views, there has been a dramatic uptick in the liberal views of high school girls:

Nowadays, it is girls who are drifting to the left. The share of 12th-grade girls who identified as liberal rose from 19 percent in 2012 to 30 percent in 2022. Only 12 percent of girls identified as conservative in last year’s survey, administered by the University of Michigan. 

But the leftward drift of young women alone has sufficed to move the needle on young adults as a whole. Generation Z favors liberalism over conservatism by a 48-to-33 margin, according to NBC News polling from 2022. Ten years earlier, young adults split evenly between the two political camps. 

          So, while it is true that there has been a recent relative increase in the conservative views of high school boys (largely because of a decline in boys with liberal views), it has not been dramatic compared to historical norms. But the increase in liberal-leaning female high school seniors has moved the overall view of high school seniors to the left on the political spectrum.

          Which brings me to the topic of helping to register high school students to vote. Every year, 4 million high school graduates become eligible to vote. As the above discussion illustrates, the more graduates who register to vote, the better it is for Democrats. The Civics Center is devoted to registering high school seniors to vote.

          Laura Brill, the founder of The Civics Center, has published an important article on her Substack page that I hope everyone will take the time to read. See The Freedom to Vote Act: What it can and can’t do for Gen Z. Laura discusses the Freedom to Vote Act, which was introduced in Congress last week. The FTVA would implement many provisions that would help youth voters to register and vote, including:

• Automatic voter registration;

• Online voter registration;

• Same-day registration;

• Requiring states to allow young people to preregister to vote as soon as they turn 16;

• Requiring early voting;

• Designating election Day as a public holiday; and

• Requiring states with ID requirements to accept both college and high school IDs.

          Each of the above would be a boon to youth voters—and the general voting population. But until Congress passes the FTVA, one of the most effective things Democrats can do is to help register young voters. Check out The Civics Center to see how you can help!

A personal note about the upcoming solar eclipse in April 2024.

          My wife and I have just signed up for a tour with astronomer Bob Berman to observe the total solar eclipse on April 8, 2024. We thought we waited too long to make reservations, but the tour outfit working with Bob Berman opened a second tour and reached out to me. We jumped at the chance to sign up at a time when there are few opportunities available.

If any of you are interested in joining us for a week-long adventure, write me at rbhubbell@gmail.com with subject line “Eclipse” and I will get you the info for the tour. I am not receiving any compensation or perks for mentioning this—just hoping to spend time with fellow readers interested in the eclipse. BTW, if you haven’t seen a total solar eclipse, it is life-changing!

Concluding Thoughts.

          The GOP bills itself as a “populist” movement. It is not. The special election in Ohio on August 8th illustrates the reality of a GOP controlled by a handful of billionaires. “Issue 1” on Ohio’s August 8th ballot seeks to raise the threshold for constitutional amendments in Ohio to 60%. Ohio’s Secretary of State, Frank LaRose claims that the amendment is necessary to protect the Ohio constitution from “out of state” interests. LaRose recently said, “I’m here to say the Ohio constitution is not for sale.”

          It turns out that LaRose’s statement is a lie. See Ohio Capital-Journal, Ohio amendment to curb 'out-of-state special interests' gets nearly all its funding from them. As the Capital-Journal notes,

          The yes campaign committee, Protect Our Constitution, raised a little more than $4.85 million according to its filing. Nearly all of it came from a single individual who lives out of state.

          Illinois billionaire Richard Uihlein donated a total of $4 million to the committee. The right-wing megadonor owns the Uline shipping and office supply company, and his grandfather and great-grandfather ran Schlitz brewing.

          While the effort to defeat Issue 1 has attracted funding from across the nation, the “Vote NO on Issue 1” movement is far more diverse in terms of funding. Moreover, there are tens of thousands of grass-roots volunteers across America writing postcards and letters urging Ohio voters to vote in the August 8th special election.

          If you were betting on the long-term prospects of a political party, would you favor the party that relied on an out-of-state billionaire to provide 80% of the funding for a state initiative or on the party that has mobilized tens of thousands of volunteers to “get out the vote”?

          The question answers itself. The GOP’s reliance on a handful of billionaires is a symptom of its weakness, while the Democratic Party’s reliance on grass-roots volunteers is a sign of its strength. We are well positioned for 2024—and for the future. Take heart and confidence from that fact as we work toward restoring the rule of law.

          Talk to you tomorrow!