Republicans say, “It’s the economy, stupid” . . . unless the economy is strong, then it’s “Look, there goes Elvis!”

August 15, 2024

I hurt my jaw on Wednesday. I was listening to MSNBC report on the drop in inflation below 3% when the news anchor asked an “expert” how the positive economic news would affect the election. With no sense of irony or memory, the “expert” said, “Well, of course, the election won’t be decided on the economy.”

My jaw hit the floor so quickly that I nearly chipped a tooth. Remember that time—for the last year-and-half—when political pundits told us that voters cared about inflation more than democracy itself?

Now that inflation is at the lowest level in the last three years, pundits are telling us that the economy doesn’t matter—or that the good news about inflation is actually bad news for Kamala Harris. See, e.g., Politico, Inflation is easing. Now, Harris has an even bigger problem with the economy. (Per Politico, the economy faces a possible recession—which is what economists have been predicting for the last year-and-half.)

To President Biden’s credit, he called out the media’s insistence on spinning all economic news as unfavorable. At an event at the White House, a reporter shouted a question, “Did the US beat inflation, Mr. President.” Biden responded,

Yes, yes, yes. I told you we were going to have a soft landing [and]we’re going to have a soft landing. My policies are working. Start writing it that way.” See President Biden on Easing Inflation: "My Policies Are Working" | C-SPAN.org.

But the press has no interest in reporting on a positive economic story. Kamala Harris announced that she would give a speech on Friday outlining her economic policies. The New York Times didn’t wait for the speech to give it a negative review, posting the headline Harris Is Set to Lay Out an Economic Message Light on Detail.

Per the Times,

In her speech, according to those familiar with her plans, Ms. Harris will call for expanding the child tax credit, along with higher taxes on corporations and high earners, in line with Mr. Biden’s budget proposals in office. She will also push for more affordable housing, among other measures.

In her campaign, Ms. Harris has already called for raising the minimum wage and providing paid leave for workers. She has defended the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Other outlets reported that Kamala Harris will also introduce “anti-price gouging” legislation to prevent corporations from using inflation as an excuse to raise grocery prices faster than justified by cost increases. See The Guardian, Kamala Harris economic plan to focus on groceries, housing and healthcare

Hmm. Sounds specific to me. Perhaps if the Times had waited for the speech before declaring it was “light on details,” it would have had a firmer basis for its critique.

By comparison, when Trump gave a rambling speech on Wednesday that was billed as setting forth his “vision for the economy,” he descended into name-calling, conspiracy-mongering, and crowd-sizing. The Times’ headline was Trump Lobs Personal Attacks Against Harris in Economy-Focused Speech.

The Times summarized Trump's economic plans as follows:

During his speech, Mr. Trump vowed that he would end “costly, job-killing” regulations in order to bring prices down, though he did not specify which regulations. He promised to address housing costs by opening large tracts of federal land for development, imposing tariffs of up to 20 percent on America’s trading partners and expanding signature tax cuts he pushed while in the White House.

He also said that his chief tool to fight rising prices would be boosting oil and gas production, even as the U.S. is currently producing significantly more crude oil today than it did under the Trump administration.

So, Trump's “economic” policy is (1) “Drill baby, drill,” (2) cut taxes for the wealthy, (3) reduce federal regulation, and (4) allow private developers to use federal land to build homes. Now that sounds “light on details,” no?

Ah, well! We aren’t going to fix the broken press before November. But the general acknowledgment that the media is broken is widespread and accepted as truth. See Jonathan Chait in NYMagazine, The Media’s Double Standard Favors Trump, Not Harris.

Per Chait,

If Harris avoids any substantive commitments by September and the media aren’t making a big issue out of it, I’d be surprised.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump very much is skating by without serious policy commitments. He floated the idea of repealing Obamacare, then backed away, and is continuing to vaguely promise to make health care better for everybody without anybody paying for it.

He has made positive noises about cutting retirement programs without specifying how. He is secretly promising huge tax cuts to wealthy donors, while saying he would “be okay” with setting the corporate tax rate just one point lower.

The media are reporting on some of these questions . . . but most of Trump’s issue evasions have disappeared from the news, and the press has had almost no ability to force him to take a stand on any issue he prefers not to talk about. Harris, at least, is supposed to be working on an agenda. Trump won’t get more specific until he wins.

So, as the media whines about Kamala Harris's lack of a full-blown policy portfolio three weeks after entering the presidential race, it has failed to hold Trump to specifics on his grandiose, illusory promises.

One final note: Trump is touting “No taxes on Social Security.” Without regard to the merits of that proposal, Democrats introduced a bill in 2022 to eliminate taxes on Social Security. See Pensions & Investments, (1/31/2024), Bill reintroduced to eliminate federal taxes on Social Security benefits, extend solvency. (“Originally introduced in August 2022, the bill would repeal the taxation of Social Security benefits starting in 2025.”)

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Positive developments in Wisconsin—traceable to Justice Janet Protasiewicz

Wisconsin has been in the grip of partisan gerrymandering for more than a decade. However, Democrats changed the composition of the Wisconsin Supreme Court last year, which prompted the GOP legislature to approve new state legislative boundaries proposed by Democratic Governor Tony Evers. (Republican legislators approved the boundaries to prevent the “liberal” state supreme court from approving an even more Democratic-friendly boundaries.)

Wisconsin held primaries on Wednesday. Under the new legislative boundaries, six incumbents lost seats—including some of the most reactionary, election-denying MAGA extremists. See AP, Wisconsin primary voters oust more than a half-dozen legislators, setting stage for Dem push in fall.

The news in Wisconsin is also encouraging because turnout for the primary was the highest in sixty years.

The progress in Wisconsin is traceable to the election of Justice Janet Protasiewicz in 2023—a victory that many readers of this newsletter contributed to! A good reminder that “It all starts in the states.” Keep up the good work!

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Josh Marshall’s take on why the media is demanding that Kamala Harris submit to their will

Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo posted an essay today that offers a theory to explain the DC media’s impatience and pique with Kamala Harris. Per Marshall, the DC press corps spent three-and-half years ignoring and dismissing Kamala Harris. They are now baffled by her success with voters.

So, rather than reporting on her success, they want to take her down a notch by demanding policy specifics that they never demand (much less care about) for other candidates. See Talking Points Memo, Kamala, A Riddle Wrapped in a Mystery Inside an Enigma, Many People are Saying. Check out Josh Marshall’s theory. If correct, it might explain what will happen in the press over the next several weeks as the DC press corps tries to re-establish itself as the center of the universe.

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Concluding Thoughts

Note: My wife and I will celebrate our 43rd wedding anniversary on Thursday. We will take the day off to enjoy the Getty Museum in Malibu. I will send a short, pre-scheduled newsletter with two meaningful reader opportunities; otherwise, I will not cover the news.

Thanks to the 900+ readers who contributed to the fundraiser for nine Democratic US Senate candidates. Thanks also to the several hundred who showed up on the call Wednesday evening. Together, we raised more than $150,000 to help expand Democratic control of the Senate. In addition to Rep. Adam Schiff, we were joined by Senator Bob Casey (PA), Senator Tammy Baldwin (WI), and Rep. Elissa Slotkin (MI).

The appearances by the Reps. Schiff and Slotkin and Senators Casey and Baldwin were confidence inspiring. At a time when Republicans are still experiencing “candidate quality” problems, Democrats have a stellar bench. But we knew that already.

I left the event feeling more confident about Democratic prospects for retaining and expanding control of the Senate in November. If we can do that, we can reclaim the rights that the Supreme Court took from all Americans in Dobbs. That prospect is one reason (among many) that I believe Democrats will turn out in historic numbers. Combined with the continued enthusiasm for Kamala Harris, we truly have every reason to be hopeful, but. no reason to be complacent!

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Photo below: The Andromeda Galaxy, the nearest complete galaxy to our own (the Milky Way). Although I have previously posted a photo of the galaxy, I took a longer exposure with a light pollution filter and used a software program to remove the background starfield to highlight the galaxy's structure. The Andromeda Galaxy is 2.5 million light-years from Earth and has a 152,000 light-year diameter.

Two fun facts:

First, the Milky Way and Andromeda Galaxy will collide in about 4 billion years.

Second, astronomer Edwin Hubble discovered a cepheid variable star in the Andromeda Galaxy, proving the universe extended beyond the Milky Way. See Hubble Views the Star That Changed the Universe—NASA Science. And “Yes,” I am related to Edwin Hubble, but only distantly through a common ancestor, Richard Hubbell, who came to the New Haven Colony in the early 1640s.