Reflections on the Vice-Presidential debate

September 30, 2024

My wife and I offer our condolences to the victims, families, and friends of those injured and killed by Hurricane Helene and its aftereffects. As I write, hundreds are still missing in the broad swath of the storm. Federal and state governments are responding, as are private organizations. The Red Cross (and other organizations) are mounting relief efforts. See Red Cross Mobilizes Massive Relief Effort in Wake of Helene’s Devastation Across the Southeast.

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Reflections on the Vice-Presidential Debate on Tuesday

Over the weekend, I received a handful of emails from readers expressing nervousness about the upcoming Vice-Presidential debate. After the Biden-Trump debate in July, such nervousness is understandable, but it is probably unwarranted in this instance.

The Vice-Presidential debate on Tuesday is an oddity (like most such VP debates). It is a “made-for-t.v.” spectacle that should not affect voter preferences. It is political performance art. The debate will not illuminate any new policy differences. It will not reveal anything “new” about the candidates. It will tell us how well they can cram memorized talking points into two-minute segments—a skill that has no application to serving as Vice President.

The artificial constraints of the debate—especially the inability to effectively fact-check lies—will reduce the ninety minutes to a political Rorschach ink blot test that will be manipulated by spin-doctors and dissemblers who have no interest in the truth.  

It is possible that the few voters who have not formed opinions about the candidates' “likability” will discover that JD Vance is Donald Trump without the feral charisma and that Tim Walz is your 11th-grade social studies teacher.

Even so, the “likability” of the two candidates is beside the point in this election. The choice has never been as clearcut as that facing voters in 2024—democracy v. autocracy, personal liberty v. state control of reproductive rights, gun safety v. weapons of war in classrooms, responsible economic management v. schoolyard retribution masquerading as economic policy, truth v. lies, climate protection v. unrestricted exploitation of fossil fuels, and measured leadership v. a walking ego-driven anger-management problem.

The debate will be hard to watch because JD Vance has mastered the art of the shameless lie and is smarter than Trump (hard not to be). He will lie about Tim Walz and the Trump-Vance positions, and the press will overlook the lies and pant breathlessly over how effectively Tim Walz countered the stream of lies in his allotted two-minute segments—as if that ability somehow matters.

There is little historical precedent for vice-presidential debates making a difference. Most readers of this newsletter have watched nearly a dozen such debates and can recall only one sentence uttered in any of those debates:

“Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy.”

Senator Lloyd Bentsen’s line in the 1988 debate drew extended applause and shouts of approval. It became a meme. And yet, Senator Dan Quayle became Vice-President while Senator Lloyd Bentsen is remembered for uttering that line.

There is, of course, the nauseating possibility that JD Vance could replace Trump if Trump were to win and his cabinet later invoked the 25th Amendment to temporarily suspend him from office. Dozens of readers have mentioned this possibility as the secret plan of Peter Theil and his fellow white nationalist billionaire friends. But in a political street fight between JD Vance and Donald Trump, who do you think would win? Remember Spiro Agnew?

The best Tim Walz can do is show voters that he is a nice guy with a few minor but unimportant divots. JD Vance, on the other hand, will play to the anger and ego of an audience of one. That is not a winning strategy.

I will watch the debate—but mainly to help keep the record straight and the media honest. Sadly, I fear the media will exalt spectacle over substance as part of their effort to reduce politics to a horse race. Vance will lie repeatedly and will peddle racism, xenophobia, misogyny, and anti-LGBTQ slurs. The press will describe those attacks as “sharp” and “aggressive”—rather than as “repugnant” and “unworthy of any candidate for public office.”

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Kamala Harris campaigns in Las Vegas, Nevada

Kamala Harris gave a speech to 7,500 supporters in Las Vegas, Nevada on Sunday evening. The speech is here: Vice President Kamala Harris Live from Las Vegas, Nevada Campaign Rally.

VP Harris gave her standard campaign speech, updated for Las Vegas and Trump's increasingly bitter anti-immigration rhetoric. She closed her speech with entreaties to those in attendance to register and vote early. In other words, it was a traditional campaign strategy of staying on message and remaining disciplined. But Kamala Harris continues to thrive on the enthusiasm of the crowds, who cheer every line in her speech.

However, she modulated her stance on immigration when addressing the largely Hispanic crowd in the arena. Per the NYTimes,

In Las Vegas, speaking to a crowd with many Hispanic voters, Ms. Harris did not present as tough a message on the border. Instead, she emphasized her promise to provide an “earned pathway to citizenship” for undocumented immigrants living in the United States.

VP Harris also tried to goad Trump into a second debate, saying,

I’m trying to debate Donald Trump again, and I think he should debate again. The American people have a right to hear us discuss the issues. And as you say here in Las Vegas, I’m all in. I’m all in. Even if my opponent is ready to fold.

It is unlikely that Trump will agree to a second debate, but the tactic reminds voters that Harris shellacked Trump in their only debate—a much higher stakes debate than Tuesday's vice-presidential debate.

Harris’s trip to Las Vegas shows that she hopes to “expand the map” of victories in the electoral college by flipping a “sunbelt” state (or two) to provide a margin of victory beyond the “blue wall” states that been a traditional path to victory for Democrats.

Meanwhile, as Kamala Harris gave an energetic speech to an enthusiastic crowd in Las Vegas, Trump melted down (again) before a small crowd in Eerie, Pennsylvania. The video of the speech (broken into digestible segments) by Ben Meiselas here: Trump Has MENTAL COLLAPSE at VERY TINY PA Speech (youtube.com).

Meiselas summarizes the key points from Trump speech in Eerie, as follow:

1. Blamed his small crowd sizes on President Biden.

2. Said people from Atlanta, Detroit, and Philadelphia cheat in elections which is why he is in Erie.

3. Called Kamala Harris a “stupid person” and has crowd chant “lock her up.”

4. Called Kamala a “communist” because he said people don’t know “what a Marxist is.”

5. Said there should be one violent  day a year where cops rough people up who they think are bad and anything goes.

6. Said Kamala was born “mentally impaired” but Biden “became mentally impaired.”

7. Said “That’s why they call her Lyin' Kamala. L-Y-I-N apostrophe.”

8. Said migrants are so tough and bad people in Hollywood couldn’t even play them in a  movie if they tried.

9. Said “the new thing is hydrogen cars” and when they “blow up” you will not be recognized.

10. Called a man wearing a suit that looks like a wall “Mr. Wall” and said he likes the suit but also it’s ugly.

Many of the above points are stream of consciousness rantings that would have been too outlandish for James Joyce. And, for once, Trump's insults were criticized by leading Republicans. See NYTimes, Trump’s Attacks on Harris Draw Criticism From Republicans. (Accessible to all.)

So, as we head into the final weeks of the campaign, Kamala Harris is on message and disciplined, while Trump is shambling ever deeper into nonsense and incoherence. If that matters—and it should—we should take confidence from the continued strong performance by Kamala Harris.

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Ron DeSantis uses taxpayer money to campaign against the ballot initiative on reproductive rights?

Something is occurring in Florida that sounds like it must be illegal. According to Jason Garcia in his Substack newsletter, Seeking Rents: Ron DeSantis blurs lines, burns cash in tax-funded campaign to block abortion and marijuana ballot measures.

Garcia writes:

Earlier this month, over the course of about 24 hours, three state agencies in Tallahassee suddenly ordered nearly $13 million worth of advertising.

Details are still sparse about the near-simultaneous purchase orders, all of which were made through the same vendor. [¶]

But just days later, records obtained by Seeking Rents show, the same three state agencies began booking airtime for television commercials meant to weaken support for one of two citizen-led constitutional amendments that will appear on the Florida ballot this fall: Amendment 4, which would overturn the state’s near-total ban on abortion.

If true, it is difficult to imagine a more anti-democratic use of tax-payer money, i.e., using that money to campaign against a taxpayer initiative to amend the state’s constitution.

But it gets worse. As described in The Guardian, Florida is using local law enforcement to question voters about their signatures on the sheets used to qualify the abortion initiative for the ballot. See The Guardian, Ron DeSantis accused of ‘intimidation campaign’ against abortion rights.

Let’s hope that DeSantis’s tactics provoke widespread condemnation and spur voters to the polls to support the ballot initiative and to help elect Debbie Mucarsel-Powell to replace GOP Senator Rick Scott. Readers have been urging me to hold a fundraiser for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Stand by for an announcement, soon!

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Opportunities for Reader engagement

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Seniors Taking Action hosts Liz Cheney

On Monday, September 30 at 11 a.m. Eastern, / 8 a.m. Pacific, Seniors Taking Action will host Liz Cheney on Zoom as part of its “Speakers Series.” The Zoom link is here: Seniors Taking Action | Liz Cheney.  

I will be joining the call to hear from Liz Cheney! Hope to see you bright and early on Monday!

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Join Markers for Democracy for a screening of Red, White and Blue

Please join Markers For Democracy, Downtown Nasty Women Social Group, and Team Min on Monday, September 30, 2024 at 8:00 pm ET for a virtual screening of the Academy Award-nominated short film, Red, White and Blue, followed by a virtual talk-back at 8:30 pm ET.

The film centers on a single mother living paycheck to paycheck in Arkansas who is forced to cross state lines to access abortion care.  Jane Fonda wrote:  "Rarely have I seen a film with the power to bring people together around our common humanity as effectively as RED, WHITE AND BLUE. This is a film for right now, and we need it to be seen urgently by as many people as possible." 

Markers For Democracy is committed to saving democracy one postcard at a time. They host virtual and in person postcarding sessions with guest speakers throughout the year. They co-host events with Downtown Nasty Women Social Group and Team Min. You can subscribe to their newsletters here. 

RSVP here: Red, White, and Blue: Film Screening & Talk-Back · Markers For Democracy  (Note: When you click on the Mobilize link, you will see the link to access the film on Monday between 8 pm and 8:30 pm ET. You need to use that link to access the film and sign up on Mobilize to access the virtual talk-back at 8:30 pm ET.) 

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Concluding Thoughts

As we move closer to election day, we should recognize that two counteracting dynamics will cause our anxiety level to increase.

First, we will understandably crave greater certainty and assurance about the election's outcome.

Second, information about the outcome will become “noisier” and less certain as we move closer to Election Day. Why? Because, as we have seen over the last week, Republican pollsters will churn out low-quality polls with skewed samples to boost Trump’s apparent support in the electorate.

Knowing the truth about where we stand will become increasingly subject to interpretation and arguments about samples and methodology. But none of that matters. Our actions should not change regardless of the polls—ahead, behind, or tied.

Polls do not control our destiny. We do. Let’s shape the future we want. We are already doing so every day. Do not relent! Stay the course!

Talk to you tomorrow!

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Daily Dose of Perspective

This is my third attempt at imaging the Andromeda Galaxy, which is the nearest complete spiral galaxy to the Milky Way—2.5 million light-years away.

Like hurricanes, galaxies rotate around a central core. Galaxies rotate because of the combined forces of gravity and conservation of angular momentum. Hurricanes rotate because of the Coriolis effect.