Personally I was annoyed with all the coverage this caucus got--not just in the evening but all day any time I tried to turn on a bit of news. There were other things happening that were newsworthy. This just didn’t deserve the oxygen it got. We all knew who would win. We all could take a pretty educated guess at who number 2 would be and what the gap would be between 1 and 2. And so what? The GOP ecosystem is just what it was before the caucus. Why all the election theater trying to persuade us something was at stake in the outcome? It reminds me of the big in-person meetings that have you wondering why this wasn’t an email.
Amen! Iowa can take their 6 electoral votes and stick them in the I'm shocked bin of history. What are they taught in their schools and churches in that state?
I recommend Robert Reich's Jan. 15 article, "What's the matter with Iowa" in which he talks about the out-migration of educated young people from the State. It may not explain everything, but it definitely helps.
My goddaughter, an educated professional who graduated from one of Iowa’s universities and who had an established career in Boston (and who was a Democrat) recently moved back to Iowa to be closer to her family. Her dad is ill and as a single mom she wanted to help her own mom and have the kids close to her family. But I am sorely distressed because I know that now her daughter in particular is in danger if she ever gets pregnant. I hope that she doesn’t regret her decision.
MAGA is everywhere. Logically it is not due to schools in one state. One of the most baffling things about it is that people who support Trump usually function very well in their lives--run businesses, have good jobs, solve problems, walk among us and we don’t know the difference unless we talk about politics. Then suddenly evidence doesn’t matter.
I live in Arkansas, and much like other Red States, the Universities and Public Schools and Libraries do a good job in spite of the obstacles place in their path.
I ask myself every day how the so called 'Christians' can support someone so strongly who is so far from anything resembling Christian or their 'family values',
totally agree - CNN, MSNBC with John at the "leader" board - really - for much a tiny 21 delegate vote - ridiculous. I expected that with Fox but not with CNN
I gave up on CNN after they gave Trump free town hall circuses. So I check in with MSNBC is I am looking for a station that is always news. It was Iowa Iowa Iowa all day. I was Why Why Why and turned it off. In the evening, I finally watched The West Wing for a while, my go-to show. Ironically they were also discussing the Iowa caucus.
It was a lot of noise about nothing, IMO. I hope the fifteen minutes of fame those Iowans enjoyed is now over and done with. Those who don't die of exposure will show up to vote in November as we know but let us hope that those two university cities will trounce the farmers who seem too uninformed to even realize their dear leader nearly put them out of business when he was in "office."
Sending healthy vibes to you and your family, Robert; particularly, that Jill is on the mend.
Regarding the horrifically dangerous weather Iowans are experiencing, I'm sure many caucus goers were thrilled to hear that the frontrunner acknowledged their pain as he declared that it was ok to die...after they voted for him.
Rob - Many best wishes for a full and speedy recovery to your family! Trump won 51% of the Republican caucus vote tonight. That isn't 51% of Iowa's voters. Aside from that, the significance of Trump's win tonight isn't relative to the general election, it is relevant to the Republican nomination. In that context, tonight's win is quite significant. It validates his status as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. This wasn't a poll. It was a vote. It knocked Vivek out of the race. We're down to three candidates now. Vivek's voters will likely back Trump. With them, Trump would have had an astounding 60% of the vote tonight. He has huge momentum going into New Hampshire, where he will face Haley headwinds and a demoralized DeSantis retreating, limping, to South Carolina. 60% of the Iowa vote will resonate past New Hampshire. After NH it's South Carolina. He is leading in the SC Republican primary polls by over 64%. A big win in Haley's home state will knock her out. DeSantis will be flattened even if he were to come in second. If that isn't enough, Trump's leading by 66% in the California Republican primary polls. I think we can say that Trump's romp has started the formal tolling of the bell for Nickki and Ron. Good night to them. They'll be back in 2028. The significance of Trump's win tonight is that he has locked up the nomination. He will fire a few shots over his shoulder at Haley and DeSantis as he charges to a SC victory. After that, it is Trump v. Biden. Even if all of us Dems wanted Trump as the nominee, I believe we all have a pit in our stomach now that we have him. The good news is that Joe Biden has beat him once and can do it again. He is even better at it than he was the first time. It is not time to turn out the lights on American democracy. It isn't perfect, but the victory we can win will make it more perfect. Let's start training our sites on every precinct in this country that has any potential to go blue, particularly in the purple states. With Trump as our adversary, we ought to be able to win every last one of them, and our goal should be nothing less.
I love your comment. But a Trump/Biden contest is far from assured. Anything can happen. November 5th is a long way off. A couple of issues can explode the current consensus.
Start with the fact that one or the other or both could experience a health event or condition. At this age (I'm close to it) people are one step or slip or choke away from being knocked out of the race. I don't wish pain or discomfort on anyone. But the odds are...
And speaking of health, Trumps mental problems are rapidly surfacing. Yelling at the judge who is about to determine how many hundreds of millions you will have to pay doesn't seem like a mentally competent thing to do. Talking about rounding up residents of the US and shipping them somewhere doesn't sound much like a vote getter. Unless you want less food in your supermarket.
I have great confidence that 2024 will bring surprising events. And I am much more confident in the deep bench we have as Democrats than the hollow and sad crew on the GQP side.
Excellent comment. A lot can and WILL happen before November. For certain we'll see Trump's face in court as a defendant more than on the campaign trail.
I think you have wishful thinking. I expect Haley to do well in New Hampshire and DeSantis will shortly drop out and she is building momentum but unfortunately won’t win it all. What is important is the same people who voted for candidates other than Trump could vote for Biden rather than Trump in the election.
I think having hope is a good thing! I agree that some Republicans and many Independents will vote for Biden when it comes down to Biden vs Trump. That is something to hope for!
Robert, Before commenting, I believe it worth noting that not just me but your readers, broadly speaking, are most appreciative of your generous impact and are exceedingly grateful that you continue to write us while also caring for loved ones who have contracted COVID.
Moving on, granting that Republican Iowan caucus voters aren’t representative of the country at-large, still, a win of over 30 points, wherein the biggest win before this in our country’s history was 12 points, solidifies, in my mind, that the candidate who represents an existential threat to the country is about to become the Republican presidential nominee. Last night’s blow-out also amplifies, as I previously have posted, that Trump, contrary to any other current political figure, has built an actual movement. Trump’s illiberal orthodoxy notwithstanding, he is a masterful organizer who, by stoking the grievances (many legitimate) of a sizable swath of the country that doubts politicians, by and large, care about them, singularly has created an experience for his followers bigger than their individual selves that binds them, albeit it in an authoritarian bind, to a community.
Accordingly, I ask that my comment be considered an urgent request to standout figures like yourself, and other key figures with whom you associate, to help bring recognition to the pressing need for a nationwide pro-democracy movement rooted both in mutual respect and social accountability and also in its fidelity to the rule of law and the Constitution. My point is that our side, too, with your help, requires a kind of public awakening that allows us to transcend partisan politics and connects us to a profound sense of democracy not top down, but from the inside, from bottom up, from citizens.
While I recognize the many grassroots organizers for whom this work is central, regrettably these initiatives remain largely invisible to the public-at-large. Hence, I envision a call to action from high profile figures like yourself— uniting, inspiring, and energizing people broadly, who know we are under threat, to commit to participating in saving our democracy and also, hopefully waking up those asleep to the necessity and urgency.
I agree with you ask of Robert and others but I believe it is already happening. What we all have to consider is that Presidential races have a flow and momentum and timing is critical so the timing of when people get engaged is a key element. I believe that like 2000 when Biden was holed up in his house that this time he is patiently waiting in the early months for the trials and the Trump uncontrolled responses to kick in. No amount of advertising or speeches can damage Trump more than what he does for all of us.
Stephen, Given comments I periodically read on several different Substacks, I know I’m not alone in observing that most everyday people are, at best, marginally aware/invested in the political engagement that transpires at the grassroots level. Considering the presumptive Republican nominee is intent on delivering a fatal blow to American civic institutions and consolidating power, wherein the rule of law is subjugated to an individual, we need now to galvanize the country to rise up for freedom and democracy.
Conceptually I agree with your comment but it will not be this huge groundswell but small little little day to day realization that Trump is not he answer. The threat is beginning slowly to become real to many people and will continue build slowly. It’s a nine inning game and we are in the first inning. Have faith and be patient.
Stephen, Considering Trumpism is the embodiment of the Confederacy, the Lost Cause, and Jim Crow, I intend to continue reaching out for help to bring recognition to the urgent need to set aside partisan disputes, including within our own party, in order to build a movement to preserve our democracy. I would add that I’m particularly intent on enlisting interest from figures who are known to exert influence among young people.
I commend you and your efforts but I would add that defendant Trump is a racists conman, and indicted individual and totally unqualified to hold any office and there is a bipartisan group of voters all dedicated to protecting our democracy. The challenge is to define the threat on an individual basis not from the pie in the sky perspective. Voters need to feel the pain Trump would inflict upon them
Stephen, I suppose one could start with a 6-3 High Court that would ignore 50 years of settled precedent in Roe, and would overturn a fundamental right—for which Trump takes full credit—relied upon by tens of millions every year. Clearly, a court willing to do that with a protection, over and over again reaffirmed, would do it to other fundamental protections.
Trump is more than the embodiment of the Confederacy, the Lost Cause, and Jim Crow. He seems to be growing into an American Mussolini – extremely dangerous.
In Idaho we are gathering signatures to put an Open Primaries Initiative (with Ranked Choice Voting) on the 2024 ballot. And, I'm contributing the the Abolish the Electoral College movement which seeks to have states commit to awarding all of their electoral votes to the person who wins the national popular vote. (See more in the article referenced).
Reminds me of the movie "Everything, Everywhere, All At Once"!
@gemmautting1, I’m writing between meetings, so I’ll have to be brief. To start, thank you for the WAPO piece. I’ll read it when I get home this evening. As for your 24 ballot initiatives, I applaud you for pressing for pro-democracy structural changes. Ditto the National Popular Interstate Compact. I would note, while the Compact doesn’t abolish the Electoral College, which would require amending the Constitution, were enough states to sign on to reach the 270 electoral vote threshold, that would render the Electoral College irrelevant. I believe the number currently stands at 220.
What is important is that facts of the border that you previously spelled out do clearly should be shouted at the roof tops. Biden has paid much more attention to the Border than Trump. Politics is a marathon, not a football game. There is no scoreboard , just the truth. If we are looking for the soul of America in the next election, I hope we won’t be horrified by what we see.
Thanks Robert and my best wishes for a speedy recovery for your family.
This is my main critique of Biden's campaign. Shouting at and from the rooftops is what it's going to take. But I believe that is what is going to happen. Or at least I have hope.
There are over 9 million eligible voters in Ohio. Tonight a half million came out to vote for Trump. Who will the other 8.5 million+ voters support. This game is not over......
Darn. Too early in the morning. Only about 2 million possible eligible voters in Iowa. And a quarter came out in the snow storm to support Trump. That’s meaningful.
Doing the math, 7% of registered active voters attended a caucus, or 19% of registered active Republicans voted. The NYTimes reports that only 15% of Republicans voted; the difference may account for Independents and Republicans who showed up and switeched registration on caucus night.
That’s what happens when you write in the middle of the night. Brain dead. I read that just over 500,000 voted for trump. Instead it was just over 50,000. I use the figure of 2 million possible eligible voters as that is the number I read were over 18 in the census. They all may not be registered voters - but presumably most of them are registerable. So the percentage of registerable voters who voted for trump is still very low. - 50,000 out of 2,000,000. How will the other 1,950,000 vote if they put their mind to voting? That makes me feel a bit better.
Robert, all the best healing wishes to you and your family. The fact that you’re still getting your letter out says something truly exceptional about your dedication.
As far as Iowa goes, I’m sensing a low-key panic among Biden supporters and folks; it isn't warranted. Last night's results told us little or nothing that we didn't know before and, as Robert pointed out, Trump’s underperformance in the college areas highlights an area of vulnerability. Overall, though, we haven't learned anything we didn't know already. New Hampshire isn't likely to teach us anything either and could, in fact, give us misleading results as independents can vote there. Trump was always going to be the nominee, and I don't think the Biden campaign expected any different. The emphasis on saving democracy is the right track, and we must support that.
To me, the best thing we can do in these early days is get people registered to vote and to continue to highlight both how unfit Trump us for the office and that he continues to tell us that he is going to circumvent democracy and trample civil rights. Every day in this space, Robert shares ways we can help. Our job is to find out which of these paths we can take to make the most impact and to execute.
Listen, I'm no Pollyanna; Trump scares the hell out of me, and he should scare anyone who supports democracy; that was true yesterday; it is true today and still will be tomorrow. Iowa was no inflection point; it was merely process. Our fight hasn’t changed.
My take aways from Iowa are very simple. It’s a full fledge MAGA state and Trump’s victory was as expected ( not crushing ) but not overwhelming and as Robert mentioned in the younger educated and aware counties Trump did not fare well. The lesson learned is turnout of younger voters has to be a major focus going forward. I live in NC and there are many NY transplants and they still read the NYT everyday and the impact of the NYT nationally cannot be underestimated or ignored. My hope is other media outlets see the light and join the chorus. Every little event or transaction that signals discontent with Trump sends a message to others that people are not willing to accept Trump and his merry band of insurrectionists any longer.
Honestly, I could not care less about Iowa caucus results. I am too stunned that I totally missed the news of the death of a mother and her two children while trying to cross from Mexico into Abbott Land. This was mentioned in HCR's column tonight.
An excellent essay regarding this travesty by TCinLA can be found here
The MSM and President Biden need to wake the hell up. I will be writing Biden, and suggest others consider the same. When will Democrats wake up and fight what is happening in this country?
How about some concrete suggestions for what Biden should do, aside from managing the country effectively, to wake up those asleep? I would suggest getting US support out of Israel’s genocide of Palestinians. Maybe some thoughtful suggestions would be helpful beyond general criticism. I am sure Biden is aware of the looming threat to our democracy, but a hallmark of that democracy is that his hands are tied in many situations...false reporting for one. Also Biden’s appeal is to decent, intelligent people. Obscene rants such as we hear from Trump are not going to turn them away. I sincerely hope there are more of those decent people who will give Biden the votes to save our country.
I suggest you read the link in my note as a place to start. My "criticism " of Biden, and his campaign staff, is they are so bland and mealy mouthed that it is difficult to build enthusiasm for all the good work he has done
I have been extremely disappointed in the NYT since 2016. Although I’m glad they are finally admitting Trump is not fit to be president, the Newark Star-Ledger and the Philadelphia Inquirer have been much braver in their editorials. Yesterday’s Inquirer editorial was scathing and they said they will spend next 10 months highlighting just how terrible a second Trump term would be. NYT should no longer be the paper of record. Their over the top coverage of Hilary’s emails helped elect Trump in 2016.
Which begs the question: If Trump loses in November, will the GOP never agree on an immigration bill? I know the the Chaos Caucus loves the controversy. But I'd like to see legislating in their tool box. Not re-electing Gym Jordan, MTG, Chip Roy, and Elise Stefanik would be very good for our country.
I still find it shocking and incomprehensible that there are people (especially so-called Christians) who vote for a convicted rapist, would vote for him even if he is convicted of stealing our nations top secret documents, responsible for instigating the attack on our capital, attempting to overturn the presidential election, and who LIKE that he speaks about people as vermin, who believe the election was stolen, etc, etc. No matter how many explanations there are for how such a person as he can be the Republican front runner, I will never not be shocked and really sad about what has happened to this country.
Watching some coverage last night on MSNBC, I learned that the Christian Evangelicals in Iowa and other places believe that God has chosen Trump to "help them regain their country!" It is hard to believe they have ignored all of the horrible things Trump and Republicans have done to hurt the poorest and weakest people in this country as well as those who are trying to escape desperate conditions in their own countries, and who are needed here!
I’m in Mississippi, and during his term of office, it was not uncommon to see church signage pronounce him as “God’s President,” calling him divine or some variation on those themes. It’s very difficult to understand.
The NYTimes is day late and dollar short. They could have done this in 2016, the NYTimes never published one word of Trump’s well known dirty business dealings. They did not do their job of educating the public. Instead the NYTimes published a front page article on Trump EVERY DAY. No equivalency in those days. I quit my subscription and haven’t read the “paper of record” since. They helped sell Democracy down the river.
Robert- speedy recovery to your family members who are down with Covid.
I have to take a news break for a few days. When the headlines are all screaming about Trump’s non- news story in Iowa while people are dying in plain site crossing a river into the US and TX border guards not only stand by but prevent US border patrol to pass to try and rescue them, I just have to ask: WTF are our priorities?
I appreciate your comments on the NYT editorial, but really they just can’t seem to help themselves.
Today (Tuesday, 16th), the on-line NYT headline is “After Iowa, Trump is Back to Command the National Psyche”. Ummmm, no, he commands the psyche of a subset of republican voters and of the mainstream media. Which together are hardly “the National Psyche”.
Personally I was annoyed with all the coverage this caucus got--not just in the evening but all day any time I tried to turn on a bit of news. There were other things happening that were newsworthy. This just didn’t deserve the oxygen it got. We all knew who would win. We all could take a pretty educated guess at who number 2 would be and what the gap would be between 1 and 2. And so what? The GOP ecosystem is just what it was before the caucus. Why all the election theater trying to persuade us something was at stake in the outcome? It reminds me of the big in-person meetings that have you wondering why this wasn’t an email.
Amen! Iowa can take their 6 electoral votes and stick them in the I'm shocked bin of history. What are they taught in their schools and churches in that state?
The general election will be different. Polls show 11 % of Iowa Republicans support Biden. Registration puts Republicans only 1% more than D's.
I still think that NY will undo Trump. March 25 trial date in the Bragg prosecution. No immunity issue.
I recommend Robert Reich's Jan. 15 article, "What's the matter with Iowa" in which he talks about the out-migration of educated young people from the State. It may not explain everything, but it definitely helps.
My goddaughter, an educated professional who graduated from one of Iowa’s universities and who had an established career in Boston (and who was a Democrat) recently moved back to Iowa to be closer to her family. Her dad is ill and as a single mom she wanted to help her own mom and have the kids close to her family. But I am sorely distressed because I know that now her daughter in particular is in danger if she ever gets pregnant. I hope that she doesn’t regret her decision.
Illinois and Minnesota are right next door.
Excuse me, but our schools in Iowa are doing a good job with what they have. Trumpism is terrible here, but don’t blame the schools.
MAGA is everywhere. Logically it is not due to schools in one state. One of the most baffling things about it is that people who support Trump usually function very well in their lives--run businesses, have good jobs, solve problems, walk among us and we don’t know the difference unless we talk about politics. Then suddenly evidence doesn’t matter.
That is for sure. It's like watching people willingly walk into a burning building.
I live in Arkansas, and much like other Red States, the Universities and Public Schools and Libraries do a good job in spite of the obstacles place in their path.
Thank you, Bettie; I appreciate your comment.
I ask myself every day how the so called 'Christians' can support someone so strongly who is so far from anything resembling Christian or their 'family values',
If you read the tea leaves but not the reporting you will see that even in Iowa there are more Republicans than reported who are not Trump fans
totally agree - CNN, MSNBC with John at the "leader" board - really - for much a tiny 21 delegate vote - ridiculous. I expected that with Fox but not with CNN
I gave up on CNN after they gave Trump free town hall circuses. So I check in with MSNBC is I am looking for a station that is always news. It was Iowa Iowa Iowa all day. I was Why Why Why and turned it off. In the evening, I finally watched The West Wing for a while, my go-to show. Ironically they were also discussing the Iowa caucus.
I wonder how CNN’s wall-to-wall Iowa Caucus reporting fared in the ratings. Was its coverage a blunder in business terms?
Good question that applies to MSNBC as well.
It was a lot of noise about nothing, IMO. I hope the fifteen minutes of fame those Iowans enjoyed is now over and done with. Those who don't die of exposure will show up to vote in November as we know but let us hope that those two university cities will trounce the farmers who seem too uninformed to even realize their dear leader nearly put them out of business when he was in "office."
Sending healthy vibes to you and your family, Robert; particularly, that Jill is on the mend.
Regarding the horrifically dangerous weather Iowans are experiencing, I'm sure many caucus goers were thrilled to hear that the frontrunner acknowledged their pain as he declared that it was ok to die...after they voted for him.
That comment ranks with his Christmas message.
Lynell, I appreciate how you find these nuggets of TrumpSpeak and expose his inner ogre
Thanks, Dave. Personally, I was shocked when I heard him say it (on TV). But then again, I'm not a MAGAt!
Lynell, thank you for the laugh! I take them wherever I find them. Yours was the first of the day.
You're welcome, Judith...I aim to please!
What a jerk!
Rob - Many best wishes for a full and speedy recovery to your family! Trump won 51% of the Republican caucus vote tonight. That isn't 51% of Iowa's voters. Aside from that, the significance of Trump's win tonight isn't relative to the general election, it is relevant to the Republican nomination. In that context, tonight's win is quite significant. It validates his status as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. This wasn't a poll. It was a vote. It knocked Vivek out of the race. We're down to three candidates now. Vivek's voters will likely back Trump. With them, Trump would have had an astounding 60% of the vote tonight. He has huge momentum going into New Hampshire, where he will face Haley headwinds and a demoralized DeSantis retreating, limping, to South Carolina. 60% of the Iowa vote will resonate past New Hampshire. After NH it's South Carolina. He is leading in the SC Republican primary polls by over 64%. A big win in Haley's home state will knock her out. DeSantis will be flattened even if he were to come in second. If that isn't enough, Trump's leading by 66% in the California Republican primary polls. I think we can say that Trump's romp has started the formal tolling of the bell for Nickki and Ron. Good night to them. They'll be back in 2028. The significance of Trump's win tonight is that he has locked up the nomination. He will fire a few shots over his shoulder at Haley and DeSantis as he charges to a SC victory. After that, it is Trump v. Biden. Even if all of us Dems wanted Trump as the nominee, I believe we all have a pit in our stomach now that we have him. The good news is that Joe Biden has beat him once and can do it again. He is even better at it than he was the first time. It is not time to turn out the lights on American democracy. It isn't perfect, but the victory we can win will make it more perfect. Let's start training our sites on every precinct in this country that has any potential to go blue, particularly in the purple states. With Trump as our adversary, we ought to be able to win every last one of them, and our goal should be nothing less.
I love your comment. But a Trump/Biden contest is far from assured. Anything can happen. November 5th is a long way off. A couple of issues can explode the current consensus.
Start with the fact that one or the other or both could experience a health event or condition. At this age (I'm close to it) people are one step or slip or choke away from being knocked out of the race. I don't wish pain or discomfort on anyone. But the odds are...
And speaking of health, Trumps mental problems are rapidly surfacing. Yelling at the judge who is about to determine how many hundreds of millions you will have to pay doesn't seem like a mentally competent thing to do. Talking about rounding up residents of the US and shipping them somewhere doesn't sound much like a vote getter. Unless you want less food in your supermarket.
I have great confidence that 2024 will bring surprising events. And I am much more confident in the deep bench we have as Democrats than the hollow and sad crew on the GQP side.
Excellent comment. A lot can and WILL happen before November. For certain we'll see Trump's face in court as a defendant more than on the campaign trail.
I think you have wishful thinking. I expect Haley to do well in New Hampshire and DeSantis will shortly drop out and she is building momentum but unfortunately won’t win it all. What is important is the same people who voted for candidates other than Trump could vote for Biden rather than Trump in the election.
I think having hope is a good thing! I agree that some Republicans and many Independents will vote for Biden when it comes down to Biden vs Trump. That is something to hope for!
All true. But also exactly as we expected. Anything different would have been a political miracle.
Robert, Before commenting, I believe it worth noting that not just me but your readers, broadly speaking, are most appreciative of your generous impact and are exceedingly grateful that you continue to write us while also caring for loved ones who have contracted COVID.
Moving on, granting that Republican Iowan caucus voters aren’t representative of the country at-large, still, a win of over 30 points, wherein the biggest win before this in our country’s history was 12 points, solidifies, in my mind, that the candidate who represents an existential threat to the country is about to become the Republican presidential nominee. Last night’s blow-out also amplifies, as I previously have posted, that Trump, contrary to any other current political figure, has built an actual movement. Trump’s illiberal orthodoxy notwithstanding, he is a masterful organizer who, by stoking the grievances (many legitimate) of a sizable swath of the country that doubts politicians, by and large, care about them, singularly has created an experience for his followers bigger than their individual selves that binds them, albeit it in an authoritarian bind, to a community.
Accordingly, I ask that my comment be considered an urgent request to standout figures like yourself, and other key figures with whom you associate, to help bring recognition to the pressing need for a nationwide pro-democracy movement rooted both in mutual respect and social accountability and also in its fidelity to the rule of law and the Constitution. My point is that our side, too, with your help, requires a kind of public awakening that allows us to transcend partisan politics and connects us to a profound sense of democracy not top down, but from the inside, from bottom up, from citizens.
While I recognize the many grassroots organizers for whom this work is central, regrettably these initiatives remain largely invisible to the public-at-large. Hence, I envision a call to action from high profile figures like yourself— uniting, inspiring, and energizing people broadly, who know we are under threat, to commit to participating in saving our democracy and also, hopefully waking up those asleep to the necessity and urgency.
I agree with you ask of Robert and others but I believe it is already happening. What we all have to consider is that Presidential races have a flow and momentum and timing is critical so the timing of when people get engaged is a key element. I believe that like 2000 when Biden was holed up in his house that this time he is patiently waiting in the early months for the trials and the Trump uncontrolled responses to kick in. No amount of advertising or speeches can damage Trump more than what he does for all of us.
Stephen, Given comments I periodically read on several different Substacks, I know I’m not alone in observing that most everyday people are, at best, marginally aware/invested in the political engagement that transpires at the grassroots level. Considering the presumptive Republican nominee is intent on delivering a fatal blow to American civic institutions and consolidating power, wherein the rule of law is subjugated to an individual, we need now to galvanize the country to rise up for freedom and democracy.
Conceptually I agree with your comment but it will not be this huge groundswell but small little little day to day realization that Trump is not he answer. The threat is beginning slowly to become real to many people and will continue build slowly. It’s a nine inning game and we are in the first inning. Have faith and be patient.
Totally! Hope and hard work are the answers!
Stephen, Considering Trumpism is the embodiment of the Confederacy, the Lost Cause, and Jim Crow, I intend to continue reaching out for help to bring recognition to the urgent need to set aside partisan disputes, including within our own party, in order to build a movement to preserve our democracy. I would add that I’m particularly intent on enlisting interest from figures who are known to exert influence among young people.
I commend you and your efforts but I would add that defendant Trump is a racists conman, and indicted individual and totally unqualified to hold any office and there is a bipartisan group of voters all dedicated to protecting our democracy. The challenge is to define the threat on an individual basis not from the pie in the sky perspective. Voters need to feel the pain Trump would inflict upon them
Stephen, I suppose one could start with a 6-3 High Court that would ignore 50 years of settled precedent in Roe, and would overturn a fundamental right—for which Trump takes full credit—relied upon by tens of millions every year. Clearly, a court willing to do that with a protection, over and over again reaffirmed, would do it to other fundamental protections.
Trump is more than the embodiment of the Confederacy, the Lost Cause, and Jim Crow. He seems to be growing into an American Mussolini – extremely dangerous.
Michael, Bear in mind that Hitler’s Final Solution evolved from his observations of Jim Crow here in the States.
Yes!
And yes to you Stephen and Barbara. We DO need to heed the timing and messages of this moment and act loudly and effectively in support of our threatened democracy. To which end, if you have not seen it, this WA Po article is helpful: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/12/21/fix-american-democracy-voting-rights-supreme-court-senate/
In Idaho we are gathering signatures to put an Open Primaries Initiative (with Ranked Choice Voting) on the 2024 ballot. And, I'm contributing the the Abolish the Electoral College movement which seeks to have states commit to awarding all of their electoral votes to the person who wins the national popular vote. (See more in the article referenced).
Reminds me of the movie "Everything, Everywhere, All At Once"!
You are awesome!
@gemmautting1, I’m writing between meetings, so I’ll have to be brief. To start, thank you for the WAPO piece. I’ll read it when I get home this evening. As for your 24 ballot initiatives, I applaud you for pressing for pro-democracy structural changes. Ditto the National Popular Interstate Compact. I would note, while the Compact doesn’t abolish the Electoral College, which would require amending the Constitution, were enough states to sign on to reach the 270 electoral vote threshold, that would render the Electoral College irrelevant. I believe the number currently stands at 220.
What is important is that facts of the border that you previously spelled out do clearly should be shouted at the roof tops. Biden has paid much more attention to the Border than Trump. Politics is a marathon, not a football game. There is no scoreboard , just the truth. If we are looking for the soul of America in the next election, I hope we won’t be horrified by what we see.
Thanks Robert and my best wishes for a speedy recovery for your family.
This is my main critique of Biden's campaign. Shouting at and from the rooftops is what it's going to take. But I believe that is what is going to happen. Or at least I have hope.
Hope is a four letter word and also the ancient Greeks despised the concept of hope...but I hope also!!!!
Good! Without hope, how could we get up in the morning?
There are over 9 million eligible voters in Ohio. Tonight a half million came out to vote for Trump. Who will the other 8.5 million+ voters support. This game is not over......
I think only 100k came out, no?
Yes, and only half of THOSE supported Trump.
So all this hoopla because 55,000 voters did what we expected they would do.
Iowa? That's where the tall corn grows.
Darn. Too early in the morning. Only about 2 million possible eligible voters in Iowa. And a quarter came out in the snow storm to support Trump. That’s meaningful.
Per the US Census Bureau, there were 1.7 million registered voters in Iowa in November 2022. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-586.html
But the Iowa Secretary of State reports only 1.5 million "active" registered voters. https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2024/CongJan24.pdf
Per the Iowa Secretary of State, there are 594,533 registered Republicans in January 2024.
Per the NYTimes, 110,000 people voted in the caucuses.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/16/us/politics/iowa-caucus-takeaways.html
Only 51% of those who voted supported Trump.
Doing the math, 7% of registered active voters attended a caucus, or 19% of registered active Republicans voted. The NYTimes reports that only 15% of Republicans voted; the difference may account for Independents and Republicans who showed up and switeched registration on caucus night.
That’s what happens when you write in the middle of the night. Brain dead. I read that just over 500,000 voted for trump. Instead it was just over 50,000. I use the figure of 2 million possible eligible voters as that is the number I read were over 18 in the census. They all may not be registered voters - but presumably most of them are registerable. So the percentage of registerable voters who voted for trump is still very low. - 50,000 out of 2,000,000. How will the other 1,950,000 vote if they put their mind to voting? That makes me feel a bit better.
Why all this angst over Iowa? It’s probably safely Republican – not thought to be up for grabs in the general election. Write it off and move on.
Patricia. Half a quarter
Robert, all the best healing wishes to you and your family. The fact that you’re still getting your letter out says something truly exceptional about your dedication.
As far as Iowa goes, I’m sensing a low-key panic among Biden supporters and folks; it isn't warranted. Last night's results told us little or nothing that we didn't know before and, as Robert pointed out, Trump’s underperformance in the college areas highlights an area of vulnerability. Overall, though, we haven't learned anything we didn't know already. New Hampshire isn't likely to teach us anything either and could, in fact, give us misleading results as independents can vote there. Trump was always going to be the nominee, and I don't think the Biden campaign expected any different. The emphasis on saving democracy is the right track, and we must support that.
To me, the best thing we can do in these early days is get people registered to vote and to continue to highlight both how unfit Trump us for the office and that he continues to tell us that he is going to circumvent democracy and trample civil rights. Every day in this space, Robert shares ways we can help. Our job is to find out which of these paths we can take to make the most impact and to execute.
Listen, I'm no Pollyanna; Trump scares the hell out of me, and he should scare anyone who supports democracy; that was true yesterday; it is true today and still will be tomorrow. Iowa was no inflection point; it was merely process. Our fight hasn’t changed.
My take aways from Iowa are very simple. It’s a full fledge MAGA state and Trump’s victory was as expected ( not crushing ) but not overwhelming and as Robert mentioned in the younger educated and aware counties Trump did not fare well. The lesson learned is turnout of younger voters has to be a major focus going forward. I live in NC and there are many NY transplants and they still read the NYT everyday and the impact of the NYT nationally cannot be underestimated or ignored. My hope is other media outlets see the light and join the chorus. Every little event or transaction that signals discontent with Trump sends a message to others that people are not willing to accept Trump and his merry band of insurrectionists any longer.
Honestly, I could not care less about Iowa caucus results. I am too stunned that I totally missed the news of the death of a mother and her two children while trying to cross from Mexico into Abbott Land. This was mentioned in HCR's column tonight.
An excellent essay regarding this travesty by TCinLA can be found here
https://open.substack.com/pub/tcinla757/p/the-republican-party-is-now-officially?r=22ofg&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
The MSM and President Biden need to wake the hell up. I will be writing Biden, and suggest others consider the same. When will Democrats wake up and fight what is happening in this country?
How about some concrete suggestions for what Biden should do, aside from managing the country effectively, to wake up those asleep? I would suggest getting US support out of Israel’s genocide of Palestinians. Maybe some thoughtful suggestions would be helpful beyond general criticism. I am sure Biden is aware of the looming threat to our democracy, but a hallmark of that democracy is that his hands are tied in many situations...false reporting for one. Also Biden’s appeal is to decent, intelligent people. Obscene rants such as we hear from Trump are not going to turn them away. I sincerely hope there are more of those decent people who will give Biden the votes to save our country.
And don't forget that we are responsible for getting out the vote with postcards, letters, phone calls, etc.
I suggest you read the link in my note as a place to start. My "criticism " of Biden, and his campaign staff, is they are so bland and mealy mouthed that it is difficult to build enthusiasm for all the good work he has done
I have been extremely disappointed in the NYT since 2016. Although I’m glad they are finally admitting Trump is not fit to be president, the Newark Star-Ledger and the Philadelphia Inquirer have been much braver in their editorials. Yesterday’s Inquirer editorial was scathing and they said they will spend next 10 months highlighting just how terrible a second Trump term would be. NYT should no longer be the paper of record. Their over the top coverage of Hilary’s emails helped elect Trump in 2016.
Thoughts are with you and your family - hoping you are all better soon.
💯-- rest and more rest seems the ticket with JN.1
Which begs the question: If Trump loses in November, will the GOP never agree on an immigration bill? I know the the Chaos Caucus loves the controversy. But I'd like to see legislating in their tool box. Not re-electing Gym Jordan, MTG, Chip Roy, and Elise Stefanik would be very good for our country.
We need to regain the majority in the House and fight hard for the Senate to remain Democratic. That's our job!
… and elect Democrats all the way down the ballot !
I still find it shocking and incomprehensible that there are people (especially so-called Christians) who vote for a convicted rapist, would vote for him even if he is convicted of stealing our nations top secret documents, responsible for instigating the attack on our capital, attempting to overturn the presidential election, and who LIKE that he speaks about people as vermin, who believe the election was stolen, etc, etc. No matter how many explanations there are for how such a person as he can be the Republican front runner, I will never not be shocked and really sad about what has happened to this country.
Watching some coverage last night on MSNBC, I learned that the Christian Evangelicals in Iowa and other places believe that God has chosen Trump to "help them regain their country!" It is hard to believe they have ignored all of the horrible things Trump and Republicans have done to hurt the poorest and weakest people in this country as well as those who are trying to escape desperate conditions in their own countries, and who are needed here!
That is sad and unbelievable at the same time!
I’m in Mississippi, and during his term of office, it was not uncommon to see church signage pronounce him as “God’s President,” calling him divine or some variation on those themes. It’s very difficult to understand.
Unbelievable!
The NYTimes is day late and dollar short. They could have done this in 2016, the NYTimes never published one word of Trump’s well known dirty business dealings. They did not do their job of educating the public. Instead the NYTimes published a front page article on Trump EVERY DAY. No equivalency in those days. I quit my subscription and haven’t read the “paper of record” since. They helped sell Democracy down the river.
Robert- speedy recovery to your family members who are down with Covid.
I have to take a news break for a few days. When the headlines are all screaming about Trump’s non- news story in Iowa while people are dying in plain site crossing a river into the US and TX border guards not only stand by but prevent US border patrol to pass to try and rescue them, I just have to ask: WTF are our priorities?
I appreciate your comments on the NYT editorial, but really they just can’t seem to help themselves.
Today (Tuesday, 16th), the on-line NYT headline is “After Iowa, Trump is Back to Command the National Psyche”. Ummmm, no, he commands the psyche of a subset of republican voters and of the mainstream media. Which together are hardly “the National Psyche”.