Putin’s unwinnable war.

March 18, 2022

[Audio version here]

          Putin’s war on the Ukrainian people has become unwinnable. Two days ago, Ukraine mounted a counter-offensive against Russian troops laying siege to Kyiv, inflicting heavy losses on Putin’s beleaguered forces. Russian troops surrounding Mariupol have opted to level that city from afar because of their inability to make meaningful progress on the ground after four weeks. Ukraine shot down ten Russian aircraft on Wednesday, including fighters, bombers, a helicopter, and a UAV. Russia has reportedly exhausted its supply of cruise missiles. And one small town in Ukraine repelled a Russian tank battalion, “killing an estimated 100 Russians and capturing or destroying 30 of 43 Russian tanks and other vehicles.”

          Accurate numbers of Russian casualties are impossible to obtain, but reasonable estimates suggest that Russia may have suffered a 10% casualty rate after only four weeks of war. That pace of losses is unsustainable and is degrading Russian morale. And things will only get worse for Russian ground troops and aircraft. The U.S. is sending tens of thousands of anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, thirty million rounds of ammunition, and hundreds of deadly drones capable of decimating Russian ground forces from a safe distance.

          The unanswerable question is, “How will this end?” A rational leader would seek to limit losses to his military by negotiating a truce and declaring victory. There is little reason to believe Putin will follow a rational path. But the West is increasing the pain on Russia every day. In addition to the punishing economic sanctions, the West is mounting an aggressive information war. The Russian government is under siege from an unprecedented wave of “hacking” attacks that are spreading the truth about the war in Ukraine. Hackers have posted a telephone number on official government websites for Russian soldiers to call if they want to “defect” from the Russian army with the tagline, “Come back from Ukraine alive.” See WaPo, Russian government websites face ‘unprecedented’ wave of hacking attacks, ministry says.

          In response to the widespread hacking, Russia is increasing the isolation of the “Russian internet” from the rest of the world each day. But that is an impossible task—as demonstrated by a video released by Arnold Schwarzenegger on Twitter that went viral on Thursday. The tweet is here, and a version of the video viewable to anyone not on Twitter is here.

          If you have not yet watched Schwarzenegger’s video, it is worth ten minutes of your time. I resisted watching the video the first dozen times readers forwarded it to me but finally decided I would see what the buzz was about. The video is a masterpiece of communication that begins with Arnold discussing his great respect and admiration for the Russian people. He uses that affection as a launching pad for his earnest desire to inform Russians of the truth about Putin’s war. It is effective and credible, with “high production value.”

          Schwarzenegger’s video will make its way into Russia to be viewed tens of millions of times—and there is nothing that Putin can do about it. Hacker groups like Anonymous break into Russian media and business websites with abandon, leaving antiwar messages daily. Schwarzenegger’s video will flow through the cracks that Putin has yet to seal in his futile bid to isolate Russia.

          In the meantime, the U.S. is ratcheting up the pressure on China to part ways with Russia. Biden will speak with President Xi on Friday, March 18th—which follows hard on the heels of NSA Jake Sullivan’s meeting with China’s top diplomat on Monday of this week. And Biden pulled off the gloves in his attacks on Putin on Thursday, calling Putin a “murderous dictator” and “pure thug”—a far cry from the GOP’s Dear Leader’s description of Putin as “smart” and “a genius.”  

          Biden has been brilliant in managing the biggest world crisis in two decades. But Republicans have finally regrouped and agreed on a message about Putin’s invasion of Ukraine: “It’s all Biden’s fault.” Bastards. See The Hill, GOP talking point could turn to Biden’s ‘underwhelming’ Russia response. No matter. Joe Biden must continue to do what is in the best interests of the United States—which means maintaining stability and peace outside of Ukraine’s borders for as long as humanly possible.

“No puppet. No puppet. You’re the puppet.”

          During a 2016 presidential debate, Hillary Clinton accurately predicted that Putin would prefer to have a “puppet” in the White House rather than Hillary Clinton. Trump responded, “No puppet. No puppet. You’re the puppet.” The video snippet of that debate illustrates a favorite technique of autocrats and dictators everywhere: Accuse your opponent of the crimes that you are committing. Trump was a master at that game and Putin is using the technique in Ukraine regarding chemical weapons. It now turns out that some of the loudest voices in the Trump administration claiming voter fraud were—wait for it—committing voter fraud. Personally.

          North Carolina has opened a voter fraud investigation into Mark Meadows, Trump’s former Chief of Staff. Meadows registered in North Carolina to vote using an address for a dilapidated mobile home that never saw Meadows spend a night in the residence. Meadow’s wife, Debbie, had previously rented the mobile home for two months but (according to The New Yorker) did not appear to have a lease on the property in November 2020—when Mark Meadows voted for Trump. Under North Carolina law, your voting residence is “where you physically reside.” See Talking Points Memo, North Carolina Probes Meadows After Voter Fraud Allegations.

          Meadows is presumed innocent until proven guilty. But the facts do not look good for a man who was one of the biggest promoters for the Big Lie.

          Speaking of the Big Lie, many of the lawsuits filed by Trump lawyers challenging results in six states were based on a report that alleged that Dominion voting machines were rigged to switch votes from Trump to Biden. The report was always seen as a wild conspiracy theory being promoted by members of Trump’s personal legal team who had no basis for their claims.

          The Guardian reported this week that a senior White House aide, Joanna Miller, drafted the report. Miller’s name was removed at the last minute, and the name of a member of Trump’s legal team (Katherine Friess) was inserted as the author. Friess has denied any involvement with the memo. See The Guardian, Trump White House aide was secret author of report used to push ‘big lie’

          So, let’s pause here to reflect on the significance of this story. The report about the Dominion voting machines was the basis of many of Trump’s lawsuits challenging the elections. The report fraudulently misrepresented who had authored the report, presumably to conceal the fact that the White House was the source of the fraudulent information in the report.

          In the hands of a prosecutor who was modestly interested in prosecuting fraud, these facts are a veritable gold mine of crimes. If only someone in the Department of Justice cared about an effort to defraud courts across the land about non-existent election fraud. Let me know if you can think of anyone who should be following up on this latest instance of criminality by Trump and his cohorts.

          Speaking of Merrick Garland, see Laurence Tribe and Dennis Aftergut in The Guardian, The evidence is clear: it’s time to prosecute Donald Trump.

The Ohio Supreme Court invalidates GOP-proposed redistricting plan – for the third time.

          The Ohio Supreme Court rejected a plan drafted by GOP members of a redistricting commission that violated the Ohio Constitution by favoring Republican candidates. See Rolling Stone, Ohio Supreme Court Rejects GOP’s Redistricting…For the Third Time. It appears that this ruling will require Ohio to delay its 2022 primaries.

          This is continued good news for Democrats. A Republican member of the Ohio Supreme Court has “switched sides” to join the Democratic minority on three occasions to strike down unconstitutional maps. Because the Ohio Supreme Court is enforcing the Ohio Constitution, the U.S. Supreme Court has no basis for reviewing the rulings of the Ohio Court.

          . . . . But the reactionary majority on the U.S. Supreme Court is itching for a fight over this issue, and this case may allow the Gorsuch wing of the Court to strip state courts of the ability to decide election cases involving federal elections. Stay tuned.

Alabama adopts Texas-style anti-transgender law.

          Alabama is on the cusp of passing a law that would criminalize gender-affirming medical treatment. The law would also require school officials to “out” LGBTQ students to their parents. See Mother Jones, Texas’ Anti-Trans Crusade Is Spreading. Sadly, we should brace ourselves for similar legislation in every GOP-controlled state. The anti-LGBTQ crusade is emboldened by the assumption that the reactionary majority will eviscerate the right to privacy that serves as the foundation for the right first recognized in Roe v. Wade. Women and LGBTQ people should have a common cause in passing legislation protecting the privacy rights of patients and doctors in making healthcare decisions.

          This will be—or at least should be—a major issue in 2022 and 2024. Most Americans favor the rights to privacy and choice recognized in Roe v. Wade. Those same rights should protect LGBTQ people. Democrats are on the right side of this issue and should not shrink from the fight merely because Republicans will claim Democrats are engaged in a “culture war.” As I wrote last week, coming to the defense of people who are the objects of state discrimination is not a culture war but a moral duty.

Podcast this weekend: The 28th Amendment.

          This weekend, I will interview representatives of American Promise, an organization dedicated to passing the 28th Amendment, which is intended to reverse the holding in Citizens United. Under the 28th Amendment, Congress would be permitted to impose limits on political spending and restore the primacy of individuals in the political process over that of corporations and PACs.

          Listen on Saturday at 2:00 PM Eastern / 11:00 AM Pacific on the Callin app (download at Apple Store or Google Play). Search for “Today’s Edition Podcast” from within the app.

Concluding Thoughts.

          The last six weeks have been tough. Talking about nuclear threats from Putin is unsettling. Of course, our anxieties pale compared to the suffering and death of the Ukrainian people. Still, we should acknowledge that watching images of Putin’s war imposes a psychological toll on all of us. We cannot help but project those disturbing images onto our own families. If you are feeling that way, you are not alone.

          It would be unreasonable to avoid all discussions of Putin’s war on Ukraine. But we should not let thoughts of war dominate our daily life. We should recognize that President Biden has helped to minimize the possibility of escalating the war beyond Ukraine—and we should allow ourselves to take some measure of respite from that knowledge. At the same time, Ukraine reminds us that the price of liberty is eternal vigilance.

          Although we should give ourselves regular breaks from the constant stream of news, we cannot afford the luxury of withdrawing from the struggle for long periods of time. Yes, our struggle is challenging, but the alternative—giving up—is simply not an option.

          Follow when you can, lead if you are able, and rest when necessary. And then rejoin the fight.

          To the extent possible during these unsettled times, I hope you can find peace and comfort with friends and family this weekend. Talk to you on Monday!