102 Comments

Hi Robert, thank you for all the enlightening explanations!

I just read an email from Focus For Democracy saying that Judge Janet’s opponent is surging in the polls. She has been consistently ahead but now it’s a toss up. It’ll be all about turnout. Simon Rosenberg said Saturday this could happen because of all the Trump mess now, causing the Republican candidate to surge There is still time today and tomorrow to phone bank to remind voters to get out to vote. They do trainings at the beginnings of each session if anyone has time to help. You can sign up for a WisDems phone bank here: https://www.mobilize.us/wisdems/event/545075/. Lots of times available. Or with the DNC call crew here: https://events.democrats.org/event/550304/?utm_source=dnc_organizing&utm_campaign=sms_stw_mb_tt_vol_ph_20230302_vm_natl_b2_a_na

Also, an NYC group, Rise & Resist, is hosting a gathering outside the courthouse in Downtown Manhattan Tuesday at 3pm if anyone wants to get out on the streets with them: https://bit.ly/NoOneIsAboveTheLawNYCApr4

Expand full comment

Posting to the top for other readers to see and take action.

Expand full comment

Thank you for pinning this to top Robert. I just finished a 2.5 hour phone bank session with WisDems. A lot of people answered. One man did not know who the Dem was so I really helped him and a lot of the people who said they planned to vote liked the idea I presented from script about "vote tripling," asking them to remind three of their friends to vote because some elections are so close it could really help. One man said yes he would do that, in fact he would put up a sign in his building because there had been confusion about polling location which I was able to give him. It takes a couple of calls to get the hang of it but once you see how the Hub Dialer works, it's easy and while I was waiting for people to pick up, I was even able to write some PostcardsToVoters.org to people in FL asking them to sign up for Vote By Mail again since the GOP struck everyone from the VBM list when Democratic enrollment passed GOP! I signed up for another shift tonight and one tomorrow. You can stay on for as long or short as you want!!

Expand full comment

Throughout all this understandable focus on Trump's arraignment, let's not forget one of, if not THE, most consequential election of this year, the WI Supreme Court election. Nothing truly significant or unexpected is going to happen with Trump this week, but the results of the WI election will have far reaching effects on our efforts to save our democracy.

Thanks for all you do, Rob!!

Expand full comment

HCR discusses the WI situation at length in her "Letters from an American" today.

Expand full comment

Support for Trump after indictment is 80% - roughly - of Republicans. Republicans are 30% of the population. So supporters of Trump after indictment are about 25% of the country.

Expand full comment

You have the numbers per polls right, TC. I also caution all of us to take these polls with huge grains of salt. Polls today are inherently flawed, which I have enumerated in past posts. One MAJOR flaw is who is willing to answer questions from pollsters. Many polls depend on landlines, although some are now migrating to cell phones. Even so, taking a poll requires FERVOR and FOCUS on the topic at hand. This makes results suspect when attempting to apply to the voting public because respondents are NOT disinterested "everypersons." They are zealots. I did not believe the polls before 2022 that said there would be a huge red vote (which I recall I mentioned in several posts), and I do not believe the polls now that say indictment(s) will help Trump get elected in 2024. Just. Not. Possible. Have faith, my friends.

Expand full comment

Still impossible to fathom that a quarter of our country could be for “it.”

Expand full comment

Actually I sort of understand the people who refuse to hear anything that makes them feel bad about themselves and their choices and their beliefs and/or live in areas where they are marinated in Republican propaganda and it can even be difficult to find more honest, reliable news. The people I cannot understand, and who completely baffle me, are those "undecided independents". That has to mean they are not entirely inundated with misinformation, they have some inkling of the truth, and some bit of suspicion they should dig further at the very least... and yet they either don't find the present situation urgent enough to look into or they find they can overlook criminal behavior or that "both sides do it"... no matter how you approach it, to be persuadable and still undecided is just Astonishing.

Expand full comment

Maybe a lot of those undecided independents simply don't think much about policy issues or what the different sides are saying. Maybe they largely don't care.

Expand full comment

So... you're saying we have elephants, donkeys and ostriches?

Expand full comment

A lot of ostriches.

actually, elephant is the wrong symbol for the GOP. Elephants are considerate, empathetic animals, and very intelligent as well.

Expand full comment

Well, I don't know about that. H. sapiens. Big brains. So many don't know how to use 'em. They don't come with a user's manual.

Expand full comment

...and the muscle is atrophied from lack of use!

Expand full comment

Another superb, fact-filled newsletter, Robert. Thank you! April 4th 2023 will be remembered as a memorable date for several reasons: 1) Trump's surrender to be arraigned on criminal charges in NYC; 2) A very consequential Supreme Court election in Wisconsin; 3) Early in-person voting begins in battleground Ohio; and, .4) The 55th anniversary of the assassination of Dr. Martin Luther King, JR

Expand full comment

I'd put that Wisconsin Supreme Court election as #1. I gave our side in that the biggest single contribution I've ever given in my life, probably twice as big as the next highest.

Expand full comment

Sorry, I skimmed the material about Trump and his legal entanglements, because I am not going to be distracted by the Trump circus. The legal authorities will deal with Trump or not. Even if he is convicted of a felony, he can run again. Instead, I am working with local progressive activists to prepare well ahead of the 2024 election to get out votes for Democrats. This means understanding voters who infrequently turn out and getting to know which former members of the Republican party are willing to vote for sane and truthful candidates instead of what they are being offered. It will require registering new Democratic voters and also learning why some people have given up on voting so we can address their concerns. It means knocking on doors, a lot of them, starting ASAP.

Heather Cox Richardson's latest post focuses on what we are up against by detailing the gerrymandering and bare knuckles minority rule initiatives of Republicans in Wisconsin. This is why we must elect Democrats. There is little mention of Trump in her post. https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/april-2-2023-sunday

Expand full comment

Hi, Gary. Good for you for not being distracted by the Trump circus and thanks for your grass roots work. Not everyone has your self-discipline. Indeed, many people are anxious, worried, and frightened about what is going on. We can't just tell them to buck up and stop worrying. Many of them can't read the news (Did you read Amanda Ripley's op-ed I posted last week?) So, I am trying to address the news that many people find painful and would not otherwise confront head on, while giving them hope about the future.

If you are a regular reader of the newsletter, you know that I have repeatedly promoted the work of WisDems and other groups in Wisconsin working on the ground to help Democrats take back the state legislature, elect Judge Janet Protasiewicz , and otherwise fight voter suppression in Wisconsin.

It's an odd comparison to say, "You're not HCR." That's true, I am not. This newsletter has a different purpose than HCR's. I am trying to speak directly to people who ARE worried about Trump's (and MAGA's) distortion of our reality. HCR adopts a more historical lens, which many people also find helpful and comforting. But I also call people to action on a regular basis. So, the fact that I did not devote this newsletter to GOP voter suppression in Wisconsin while HCR decided to take a deep dive into a particular subject in her current newsletter simply says we covered different subjects on a given day.

I understand where you are coming from about too much coverage of Trump, but the Trump indictment is a consequential story that may have a significant impact who our next president will be. We ignore it at our peril.

Expand full comment

Hi Robert,

Your Amanda Ripley op-ed link and your writing about optimism were tremendous contributions, as is your blog. BTW, I value your blog as much as I do Heather Cox Richardson. You noted that not everyone has my self-discipline. Yet, I believe that -- to parallel your writing -- discipline is a muscle that can be developed. This aligns with your wonderful writing on optimism and Amanda Ripley's formula for "hope = goals + road map + willpower."

I value other SubStack bloggers too, for their unique contributions. You have a deep and broad overview of events. Joyce Vance's Civil Discourse is great reporting on legal nuances.

https://joycevance.substack.com/

Alan Unell's Healthcare Advocacy blog covers all the aspects of our broken healthcare system while advocating universal healthcare that will cost far less and deliver much more than our current mess. His blog needs to be more widely seen. Disclosure, I'm a friend and also a retired healthcare provider. He and his wife are experienced healthcare analysts in their retirement.

https://substack.com/profile/99474376-alan-unell-phd

Robert Reich offers a terrific perspective on the class struggle represented by the 1% and monopoly dominating the rest of us in a game that is rigged.

https://robertreich.substack.com/

I also read several others and am able to curate their expert opinions to accompany my reading of mainstream news and opinion.

So, I'm not ignoring the tfg circus. I watch it out of peripheral vision to stay current with how that news may affect other efforts, but mostly I focus on plans and the will and stamina to run the marathon of fighting back where it counts the most, at the ballot box and via voter education. Regarding tfg, his cult followers, his sycophants and enablers, it's easier for me to ignore the circus for this reason. I have studied retired professor Bob Altemeyer's excellent research on the authoritarian personality and his "power mad" scale that characterizes the ruthless pols who would rule on top of the dung heap. Those folks are almost impossible to persuade except by defeat and generational change. More will rise after them and beyond our lifetimes, but we must reinstate safeguards and preserve them.

https://theauthoritarians.org/

Expand full comment

That's because she covered it all quite a bit on previous days.

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/march-30-2023

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/april-1-2023

The issue of electing Democrats and bearing witness to the historical event of the first time indictment of a former POTUS are not mutually exclusive. In fact the current indictments and those that are yet to come serve to provide even greater impetus for many in working to elect Democrats.

Expand full comment

Why can't I leave four hearts?

Expand full comment

YES, YES, YES, Gary! You nailed it!! It is all about Democratic turn-out and fervor in 2024. Thank you for so clearly lining up what we must do over the next 18 months. Let's get to work.

Expand full comment

I read HCR (who does cover Trump quite a bit) for a reading of the present news with a perspective leaning heavily toward political history and read RH for present news with a perspective providing legal insights. Instead of leaving out Trump, RH covers what is news and calls out what is over-heated pandering for readership and has devoted many paragraphs to that very topic.

I applaud your activism and wish we had many more like you out there. I can't find it within myself to be quite so sanguine about the justice system providing actual justice in this country or not, however.

That's because different things motivate different people, a fact you allude to in your comment. I understand the dedicated Trump voter is a lost cause, yet they are a good illustration that outrage is a motivator. It would be a mistake to believe only Republicans can be moved by it. Humans have a strong need to feel like there is justice and balance in the world, which is a motivator. A good report helps transform "the Trump circus" into something with more clarity because the side shows are tagged as such.

It sounds to me as if you have a niche which you are filling with all your energy and are vital in the political ecosystem. Correcting misinformation which otherwise would stand unchallenged and steering those who would not be energized by injustice toward hope and away from protective apathy is another niche. A healthy ecosystem needs you all.

Expand full comment

I just gotta say: Bill Barr is not a credible source on any legal matter and he is irredeemable. He is among the elite of TFG liars and subverted the DOJ. He is entirely self-serving just like someone else we know.

Expand full comment

Hi, Brian. Good point. Everything he says is self-serving, so there was some element of Barr self-interest in the statement. Perhaps because Barr had nothing to do with the Mar-a-Lago documents case, he wants to see Trump fall hard over that crime.

Also, I clicked on the link to your newsletter. It looks like it is still launching??

Expand full comment

Thanks!

Haven’t started on my “newsletter” yet so you haven’t missed anything. Some years ago, my therapist told me repeatedly that I should write a book. I’m only 2 years retired and that sounds like a lot of WORK! I do have some bones in a PowerPoint that I might start to assemble into a skeleton based on 45+ years as an operator of warships, nuclear power propulsion and power generating plants and as a human space flight controller. However, my dogs all agree that there’s still a lot of ear-scratching I need to do😊

BTW, I so enjoy your prose. Today was especially good.

Expand full comment

A once-respected jurist who lost his reputation by joining the Trump dumpster fire.

Expand full comment

I question the value of that oft-quoted "respect." Were those opinions tendered by peers in the legal profession, without giving weight to his ethical shortcomings? I'd give him high scores at contrived legal opinions, manipulating the media, and lying with a straight face. Little else.

Expand full comment

Gregory Bateson, the late British scientist/philosopher/doctor once defined information as "a difference that makes a difference," a statement that comes to mind every time I read Today's Edition Newsletter. The information about the roiling world of American politics that really "makes a difference" in the lives of ordinary citizens is knowledge that's based on verifiable evidence and communicated with a respect for and love of Truth and Justice, characteristics of Hubbell's work that are conspicuously missing in most of what passes for journalism today. I marvel at his attention to detail and skillful analysis of complicated issues of law that would otherwise leave me baffled. Today, after reading about Trump in light of the recent arrival of the Goddess of Justice at the former president's door and feeling good about it, I just wanted to pay a moment of homage to the writer who consistently delivers the news and its implications in an honest, confident style that truly is "painless and classy."

Expand full comment

Thanks, Stewart. And anyone who alludes to information theory in commenting on my work gets a special nod. I am a big fan of Claude Shannon, a man future generations will recognize as one of a handful of pioneers responsible for the computer age.

Expand full comment

Beautifully expressed. Truly. Thank you, Stewart.

Expand full comment

I am so glad that Robert’s legal expertise helps frame what is going on with these cases. I am also sorely disappointed in some of the supposedly neutral lawyers who are throwing shade on the Bragg case. I am referring specifically to Dan Abrams, Chief Legal Analyst on Good Morning America and ABC News. This morning he was pointing out all the weaknesses of the case and not mentioning the severity of any of the possible additional charges. GMA is a “main stream media” show where millions of viewers can get the truth and which appeals to non cable viewers. They have missed the mark and may have contributed to the disinformation.

Expand full comment

I share your disappointment. The problem with many legal commentators is that they were educated in a law school system that rewards "issue spotting." You get credit on an exam for spotting the issue; how you analyze the result is often secondary (because the result is frequently deliberately ambiguous).

So, spotting issues with Bragg's case is easy. So, too, with any case Jack Smith brings. And it makes you sound smart to say, "Oh, there's this problem and that problem." But there is a reason that Bragg is a D.A. and Abrams is a journalist. It is because Bragg has the fortitude to take cases to trial, warts and all. I am not a Bragg booster in general, but in this case, he has it right.

Expand full comment

OH!! "issue spotting" Welp! I spot a whole lot of issues; do I pass? Seriously, though, thank you for that tidbit and distinction. That sheds a brand new light on a host of spotters educated in an elite law school system, too many of them "serving" in Congress, and their lack of analytic ability.

Expand full comment

Fascinating.

Expand full comment

I agree, Annette. I stopped watching Dan Abrams years ago because he just didn't come across with the same professional demeanor and analysis of other less "show biz" type lawyers who commented on television.

I am gratified that we are able to watch serious, experienced and dedicated lawyers on television, like Andrew Weissman, Joyce Vance, Neal Katyal and Barbara McQuade (as well as others) give their legal opinions on the existential issues we are living through these days. I have seen them repeatedly avoid any grandstanding or sloppy opinions in their efforts to carefully state what they have learned over decades of serious legal practice.

Expand full comment

Oh, CC, I totally agree with you. The problem is that many people will not (or cannot) watch MSNBC. So this is a major missed opportunity to let people know what is really going on.

Expand full comment

Likewise to the comments on the relative severity of the campaign fund charges as compared to other possible charges Trump may face, or the endless analysis of whether it's a good thing or a bad thing for these charges to come first. As Mary Trump says in her recent newsletter, since when does facing potentially more serious charges later or elsewhere give you a pass for other crimes simply because they may be more minor?

Expand full comment

Like I said some time ago: loyalty, fear, deceit, are all signs of a maffia culture in the GOP. We must not let it spread.

Expand full comment

I guess I am baffled by the “independents” (no offense, please, to anyone!) we should work on, as if there were a rational choice between, say,Trump and Biden after what we have seen the past six years? Whatever label I support, the difference between the two parties is now so stretched between rationality and emotional lock step that I fail to see how anyone at this point could be sincerely independent.

Expand full comment

Oh, how I agree with you and wish it were otherwise. But many people do not pay close attention to the news and are open to "both siderism" peddled by the media. Want an example? Leslie Stahl fawning over Marjorie Taylor Greene on 60 Minutes. Disgusting.

Expand full comment

That IS disgusting (fawning over MTG).

Expand full comment

Robert, could you please dedicate some space to this dereliction of duty by CBS and Stahl? I am horrified by this 60 Minutes pandering piece. Stahl did Greene a solid and democracy a backhand. Greene called us all pedophiles, for God's sake!!

Expand full comment

H. sapiens are incredibly complex in the way they think--yet often not logical--and emotion is powerful, and that element is present on both sides, and in the vast middle. And issues can be highly complex, where is some peoples' ability to think clearly may not be so much. Just remember that statistical phenomena play an important role in how the votes come out, and that that is a lever we can work with.

Expand full comment

Agree: "statistical phenomena play an important role in how the votes come out, and that that is a lever we can work with."

Expand full comment

"We should not expend energy trying to reach voters who believe indictments are a net positive for a presidential candidate."

Agree 100%. In addition, nor should we expend any energy on name calling, or being catatonic with worry or rage. There is lots to do.

Expand full comment

Thanks Robert, last week we had natures tornados, this week we have man made tornados!

Expand full comment

Robert, thank you for another fine assessment, but in particular for THIS paragraph:

"But what about the polls that show the indictment is helping Trump’s ratings? Look closely at those polls. They talk in terms of support for Trump among Republicans. Indictments will not boost Trump’s electability among persuadable Independents—our target audience. We should not expend energy trying to reach voters who believe indictments are a net positive for a presidential candidate."

WHY do pundits and talking heads constantly point to polls of the Republicans and so infrequently survey the Independents? Chances are strong that if someone is still a Republican, he/she/it is hopelessly bigoted and supportive of the nutcases like MJT, etc. They are lost in the woods of fantasy and denial. They are hopelessly in a spiral dive to a nether world.

Gallup: On December 17, 2020, Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrats, 25% identified as Republicans, and 41% as Independent.

Also:

Most of you have read HCR's LFAA already. It's about Wisconsin. Wow. Read it if you haven't.

Also, please consider this piece from Mary L. Trump. Double WOW.

https://marytrump.substack.com/p/the-weaponization-of-hypocrisy?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Expand full comment

The Mary Trump piece was definitely a Double Wow! Thank you for including the link.

Expand full comment

Bill, when the polls before November predicted the “red wave” those familiar with polls said “look at the cross tabs”. Digging deeper revealed the polling data was skewed. I bet we would find the same thing here.

Expand full comment

Yes, the real question for some future (legal) historian is explaining Merrick Garland's behavior. I am surprised that it has not been more widely and severely criticized.

Expand full comment

OMG Garland’s behavior. What a farce he has been! I feel he has let down the entire country with his cowardice, especially those who have worked so hard emotionally to still believe in the goodness of America and Americans.

I would very much prefer to be Bragg than Garland right now. Who will be remembered for their courage and tenacity and who will be measured by their incapacities?

I can, with ALL sincerity, state that I would be ready and willing to take a bullet on ‘5th Ave’ to die knowing I had done the right thing, the ‘unprecedented’ thing, the brave thing. To be on the side of truth and honor. After all, isn’t that all we really have for ourselves? Dignity and self-respect.

Expand full comment

Well, this is me replying to my own post. I felt kinda bad after I roasted Garland. I, of course, do not know what is going on behind the scenes. Hopefully there will be good news coming soon that he did a lot of work setting things up for Jack Smith.

Expand full comment

When does Trump cross the line from First Amendment protected speech to treason when providing support and comfort to our enemies when he glorifies Putin? Putin is emboldened by Trump and his low life surrogates who provide robust verbal support to dictators around the world who kill innocents, murder dissidents, suppress free speech and engage in international terrorism. And of course it is the likes of Margorie Green Taylor who glorify the insurrectionists that brutalized and killed Capitol police officers. Why do we not consider these actions as anything but treason?

Expand full comment

Merrick Garland's lack of initiative is all the more galling relative to shameless Bill Barr's obstruction as AG and continued attempts to guide the narrative regarding Trump and their relationship. Barr's comments suggest a wish to limit the charges against his former boss as much as they add legitimacy to the obstruction charge. Like anyone should care about his opinion. Perhaps he anticipates another tour of duty as AG, wherein he would he would be working diligently to unwind Trump's convictions. Barr is skilled at manipulation and dissemblance. I get nauseous seeing his name in print. There should be Senate hearings calling him to account for providing legal cover to Trump and his family.

Expand full comment

I sincerely hope when all this has been litigated there will be an amendment to the Constitution that will NOT allow an indicted/impeached politician to ever run for public office again. ESPECIALLY for president!

Expand full comment