Sep 5, 2023·edited Sep 5, 2023Liked by Robert B. Hubbell
Incredibly inspiring rant, thank you! Before I had even read the Concluding Thoughts I'd copied two quotes from today's missive to post and repost every opportunity I get between now and up to and including election day. 1) "No one who votes in 2024 will be deciding between Biden and Trump. They will be deciding between democracy and autocracy, moderation and extremism, equality and white nationalism, reproductive liberty and religious intolerance, dignity and bigotry, climate protection and fossil fuels, the Constitution and insurrection, and order and chaos." ~ Robert Hubbell, Today’s Edition Newsletter on Substack. And, 2) "In the lead-up to 2024, we can take nothing for granted, leave nothing on the table, and spare no effort. We have learned from bitter experience that Trump will enlist our foreign adversaries and encourage violence to gain the presidency. We should assume he will do the same in 2024." ~ Robert Hubbell, Today’s Edition Newsletter on Substack. Both excellent and enduring additions to the 2024 playbook!!! Onward.
Britta, that first statement is especially insightful. It reflects the fact that human beings are complicated creatures with nuanced opinions that can rarely be expressed as A or B.
A favorite example of this is the approval/disapproval numbers. A lot of progressives are disappointed with some of the compromises President Biden made to get key legislation passed. Others think he should have done more to push for single-payer health care, or some other pet issue. That counts as disapproval, but obviously is no indication they'd consider voting for a Republican.
Another often repeated claim is that a majority of voters don't want a Biden/Trump re-match. Well for starters, most Democrats don't want Trump anywhere near the electoral process. A substantial number of Republicans also don't want Trump to be their candidate. Then there are the Republicans who don't want Biden because he'll likely win, and the diminishing number of Democrats still pining for a different nominee. Add it all up and you have a nice pseudo-statistic for a pseudo-party like "No Labels" to toss around.
Bravo Mr. Weiss! I especially like your final sentence re the fraudulent "No Labels" crowd. I can't believe these people, such as Nancy Jacobson and her defrocked Democrat pollster husband Mark Penn, actually want to see a renewed Trump presidency. But they clearly seek a seat at the public-policy table--and a continuing opportunity for donations and employment. As an enhanced third-party vote is I believe Trump's ONLY road to victory, a la 2000 and 2016, we must do EVERYTHING in our power to insure against such an Electoral College victory/Popular vote defeat for the GOP. I would even suggest a well-hidden sub-rosa support for an even-farther rightwing third party candidate, someone who could be our Ralph Nader or Jill Stein. In today's world of razor-thin margins and a plenitude of ambitious far right crazies, it shouldn't be THAT hard.
I appreciate the Bravo, Roger. But I'll have to disagree about supporting any farther-right third-party candidate.
Those who might be attracted to that candidate would likely otherwise stay home if they don't want to vote for Trump. That's a good thing, particularly since it helps all Democrats down-ballot. Let's not give them a reason to come out.
I recommend you check out Simon Rosenberg's newsletter and his campagin to "Get to 55" (percent): https://simonwdc.substack.com
Bob's exhortation cannot be repeated often enough. I was struck by the two parts of today's newsletter that you quoted. They summed up best his themes. When most of us were still reading print editions of our principal newspapers, someone asked me why I was reading the NY Times instead of the WSJ, which they were reading, I told the person based on the WSJ's editorial page , that the only use for the WSJ in my home would be to wrap a dead fish in it. Unfortunately , I find myself thinking that may be the best use for certain issues of the NY Times, which I still read in print . Its almost as though the management of mainstream papers like the NY Times, WaPo , the LA Times etc. do not realize the threat to their future posed by another Trump presidency. His administration will be filled with Jeffrey Clarke's, John Eastman and others of their ilk . The first thing to go in an autocracy is a free press.
Thanks for the cogent reminder to IGNORE the polls. I’ve learned that they are like slick 30 second adds on TV. If you say them enough, MAYBE we will believe them. NONSENSE! Do the math. MAGA is a distinct minority voting bloc. Yes, we should flood the mainstream media with letters and calls asking for more positive coverage of the Biden administration’s remarkable achievements. Yes, we need to donate to states running blue candidates against the good ole boys. But the GOP sunk their chances with the abortion issue big time and denial of climate change. (Can I say Global Warming)? Women and youth are going to come out en mass and vote BLUE. The grey haired South will never change but they are distinctly in the minority and flailing. Look at De Santis. Look at Abbot, preventing pregnant women from leaving his state. Witch burning next?
Yes, please say global warming, because that's what it is! What happens in one part of the world affects the rest of us in one way or other(s). The migrations from the southern hemisphere aren't because of a few forest fires in CA. It's of a piece and we're all involved - and eventually responsible for all of us on the planet.
Hi, Beth. It is hard to know what words to use to describe the climate crisis. When I use the term "global warming," some readers point out that one of the climate effects of carbon emissions is that winters will be wetter and colder in some places, or that oceans will desalinate, or that the North Atlantic current will stop. So, I have settled on "climate crisis." I realize that no term is perfect but that term is broadly encompassing.
Good points Robert. My concern is that even "climate crisis" isn't enough of an alarm bell. So many things get named "crisis" these days that the word has lost some of its potency.
Think about the amount of risk the next 3 human generations face of starvation on a MASSIVE scale, migrants fleeing hundreds of flooded or scorched areas, wiping out edible species of animals, widespread wars, governments becoming much more repressive &/or unstable, "new" communicable diseases, etc. And this set of horrors may well unfold over the next 50-75 years(!), less than 1% of the time since the first established human civilizations arose.
IMO, the most accurate name for this fairly likely scenario is "the looming climate-driven societal catastrophe". (An acronym capturing that concept would be very helpful!)
I'm certainly no expert re: the climate models, and dozens of factors and feedback loops are at play here. But I believe we must use language that separates these 2:
a) a "crisis" in which hundreds of people die from a fire, flood, hurricane, heat wave, or chemical release ;
b) a "crisis" in which circumstances threaten 1 or 2 aspects of the security of say a few million people (think monetary crisis);
c)an unimaginable, decades-long cascade of events threatening every human's safety, and possibly their survival.
There's an argument that making people terribly frightened about our future can lead millions of them to feel like this is a hopeless situation. And widespread adverse mental health consequences for teens and others can't be ignored. Those too must be avoided as best possible.
I see the messaging as "We're headed toward humanity's worst catastrophe, but we know how to avoid it if we get in very high gear, especially in the critical nations producing most of the greenhouse gases. We can do this!"
I like both terms. We can all feel the heat, but it's also the storms and the floods and the drought and the death of other species. For awhile it seemed like climate change deniers had given in and conceded it is a fact and it is man made (or at least certainly primarily so). Surely this new surge of denialism is the death throe of that death cult... I just don't want it to be the death of our livable planet.
So true! If we pay attention we can see how badly they are flailing. However, we cannot let up our efforts. These guys never give up! It's going to be a year-long-fight from which we cannnot rest.
As for Robert’s valid justifications for not getting hung up on polling data, I will add one more. How people respond more than one year out from an election is measurably different from how they respond as the decision date approaches. On a related matter, while, admittedly, I am one of the people who is deeply concerned that Biden fails to take full advantage of the bully pulpit, especially at a time when a substantial swath of Americans do not have a felt sense of the Administration’s accomplishments, were I a party spokesperson, every time anyone questioned Biden’s competence, I would emphatically drive home results these past three years both at home and abroad.
Though I imagine you generally hang out with like-minded folk and don’t get a lot of cross-pollination from those on the other side of the political spectrum.
I apologize in advance if I am mistaken in that assumption.
Your partially right but I live in a retirement community of individuals who I believe represent a somewhat cross section of the electoral demographics of voters and although this is not perfect or scientific it gives valuable insights
I do have a couple of friends who are watching these mainstream media polls and want someone other than Biden (Tim Kaine??? Gavin Newsom???) I understand their concerns about Biden. He has seemed a little shaky lately, but look at what he has done. And the excellent people he surrounds himself with!
I read some stuff about the WSJ poll & the person/pollster that conducted it. 600 of the 750 respondants were Republican primary voters. The poll itself was conducted by Tony Fabrizio who is/was in league with Paul Manafort & trump at the time of the Mueller Report
Sep 5, 2023·edited Sep 5, 2023Liked by Robert B. Hubbell
So with a heavily skewed poll towards republicans, the result was that Biden tied trump. That is a bad result (for repubs), and any accurate reporting would say so, but it's the WSJ, so that won't happen. I'm inclined to believe it's just bullsh*t, knowing that it was conducted by a trump ally (and the exact 750/1500 also points to a made-up poll).
I completely agree with this edition but I am faced with the remote (?) possibility that Trump won't be the candidate. Living in a community of the wealthy retired I do hear that many have said they won't vote for Trump, but "Biden is too old" (this in a community filled with over 80 year olds).. My fear is that either DeSantis or Ramaswamy or some other Republican will be the candidate we face. As much as I fear Trump's candidacy I believe he is beatable. But I believe that, reviewing Scott's 11 or 12 points I believe that any Republican, though especially the Trump wannabees, will implement the anti Democracy and vicious destruction of our institutions that Trump targets. Our target should be defend Biden and condemn the autocracy promised by the Republican party.
Well Charles, take some consolation in the fact that neither DeSantis nor Ramaswamy are going to be appealing candidates with the general election. They, in fact, are only one more iteration of a party that has gone off the rails big time. Get out the vote. Get out the message. Take nothing for granted.
Thanks for the link, Annamarie. However, at the beginning of the article there is a glaring error: "Back in 2018, Jim Morrison, a singer, songwriter, and poet, who served as the lead vocalist of the rock band, once said: “Whoever controls the media, controls the mind.” Jim Morrison died in 1971, so it does make me question whether there was any fact checking of the article with such a glaring error, i.e. it wasn't a typo. I wonder if there is another source for this information.
Someone famous once said that “ perception is reality” and right wing media has been flooding the media with so much misinformation that many people don’t know what to believe any more. President Biden was in Philadelphia for a Labor Day event and when he finished speaking he walked the rope and spoke with and shook hands with the people in attendance. One bystander complimented President Biden on his Presidential hat and Joe took the hat off and exchanged it with the bystander for his hat. A simple gesture and a telling one about the man himself. It’s a shame voters don’t care more about a person’s character and ability to do the job rather than the entertainment and playing to the audience value of the person. At the end of the day you could say that President Biden is boring but definitely honest and most importantly is getting the job done.
Hee's my thought. I think Biden was pretty unboring at last year's State of the Union! Remember how he got the Republicans to say they were not trying to cut Medicare? Though he might be boring, as you point out, he has access to his feelings, and, as in your anecdote, he uses them in one-on-one occasions, such as at the Florida event when he shook hands and spoke to everyone who wanted to shake his hand and speak with him. In the presence of so much evil in the world, President Biden is an example of goodness through and through. I'm not sure everyone sees him that way, but I do think a significant number of them do.
Polls are useless, whether months ahead, or the day before the election. What matters is how people vote. Ignore the polls, and continue all efforts to register new voters and encouraging people to vote.
I share the concern that the realities of the improving economy are not being touted loud enough - or even at all by the MSM. Very frustrating. But let's face it. Despite significant improvements, there are still terrible things happening to working class families.
Mortgage rates prohibit buying ever more expensive houses. Biden has extended some relief to student borrowers, but the courts and Congress won't allow him to do enough. And my favorite subject, help with child care is expiring along with Covid era SNAP benefits.
So sure, inflation is better. Millions of jobs are being created. Good! But if you are still living in your parents basement and you had to quit your job because you can't afford child care, while the government demands repayment of a student loan, how would you respond to a rigged poll?
There is only so much that a president can do to control an economy. The new student loan plan is a good effort. But in fact, without support from the Fed and Congress, the executive branch can just trim around the edges.
The campaign for democracy should refocus on the enormous threat to our freedom. We need to scream about the efforts to white wash history. We need to scream about women losing their reproductive freedom. We need to scream about the world wide disasters caused by the warming planet - and the role the GQP politicians play in causing it. We have gobs of ammunition.
Talking about achievements is fine. But here is the thing. When people vote in a presidential election, they tend to vote out the presiding party if they are unhappy. Despite all the fine accomplishments of this and other Democratic administrations, it doesn't bode well when people are struggling more than ever.
There are multiple reasons why peoples lives will get significantly worse with the GQP and MAGA mania. And we need to make that clear. People should be terrified. We need to rain down some other reality that is scary. A future dominated by sexist old white bigots who don't care if the planet burns to a crisp.
And this effort should be directed primarily to social media. The voters we are looking for stare at their phones. They don't follow ABC, CBS or NBC, etc. MSM is for us old timers. Find Gen Y and Z where they live - not what our generation watched. Boomer votes are already locked in. Spend campaign money where it will matter. Getting younger potential voters angry enough to vote will deliver a Blue Trifecta. Without them, we are in a spiral dive.
Yes, I was waiting for somebody to point out that there’s a great deal of suffering in our country. The Democrats need to explain that a lot of this is because of the tax cuts for the wealthy pushed by Bush and Trump. They need to show how Democrats could drastically improve the lives of homeless veterans, for example as well as farm workers as well as victims of domestic violence, etc. they can’t keep bragging about the great economybecause it’s not true for many people. Acknowledge that Biden, and Harris are very poor communicators who speak in generalities. It doesn’t mean they’re bad at their jobs but get other Democrats like Josh Shapiro and Gretchen Whitmer to be surrogates. They need to talk not about Biden but about what democrats are doing across the country.
I do agree with most of what you say, Bill. There are many people suffering at this time. Many people are working more than one job just to feed their families In LA, Landlords are evicting the poor who haven't been able to afford the exorbitant rents that exist in our city. (Having worked three jobs myself in order to pay for my daughter's college tuition, etc, I can tell you how tough that is!) But Biden must, in every speech he gives, make the point about saving our democracy. However, I think we must believe that we can win this thing by working our tails off on a daily basis, which, as Robert says, will be expensive and exhausting. But what choice do we have? And we must hold onto hope!
Thanks for another thought-provoking post. I too think the facts are on Biden’s side but wonder if you have any thoughts on the relative power of facts vs. emotion? I’ve spent most of my life trying to use facts, logic, and reason to convince people to see the world how it really is and failed 99.9% of the time. It’s been said that you can’t reason someone out of a position they didn’t reason themselves into, and I worry that an over-reliance on ‘reason’ by the Dems may in fact show a fatal misunderstanding of how best to persuade someone to change their mind. Even though I revere facts and reason, I still find myself persuaded by stories, humor, and emotion. Because of that, I sometimes ask myself if Dems are more fluent in ‘fact’ and Republicans are more fluent in ‘emotion’? And I can’t help wondering if the Dems could persuade more Republicans to switch sides if they communicated ‘the facts’ with more stories, humor, and emotion?
Very good points. As my wife wisely counsels, "Don't tell me how to feel." My point is that I think the WSJ poll is intended to mislead about how people are feeling by forcing survey choices that ignore the political reality in America today.
Sep 5, 2023·edited Sep 5, 2023Liked by Robert B. Hubbell
Robert, you spoke of horse races regarding polls. Pardon my language, but polls are horseshit. I loved that you vented your frustrations to us. I feel exactly the same way. I honestly try not to pay attention to them. Actually, Biden doesn’t believe in polls either and he has said so. Let’s just concentrate on one thing...SAVING DEMOCRACY!
The question consistently comes up in polls (judging by the “findings”announced in poll results) that many people are concerned about Joe Biden’s age. Fair enough, even though he has blown by almost every former President with the depth and breadth of accomplishments despite the country’s low point his administration started in.
Why isn’t there the same concern about Trump’s age emblazoned on the front page? He’s just a step behind Biden in that category. Why focus on one’s seniority while ignoring the other? This is not whataboutism; this is comparing apples to apples and oranges to oranges (though Biden doesn’t have that weird orange glow).
The DOJ and the committee! Jack Smith is looking at the GOP members of Congress who helped J6 happen. I am thinking Bobo and MGT plus Gaetz, Biggs (Andy), and Gosar head up that membership.
Biden rides a bicycle. That takes a lot of neurons firing in perfect synchrony.
Trump eats junk food and golfs. He does not walk the course, he is driven.
Biden is not over weight.
Trump is obese.
Biden can string sentences together that make a point or answer the question he has been asked.
Trump can not answer a question or make a point without rambling. Or lying. Even if his life depended on it.
Case in point: a recent deposition where it went on for hours because Trump would not just answer the question!
I keep thinking that Trump is a heart attack and/or a stroke waiting to happen. I finally realized that he has no heart and his brain is so tiny it could shrivel up and die and none of us would notice.
"...his brain is so tiny it could shrivel up and die and none of us would notice." Oh, you haven't noticed? 😈 Seriously, though, your points are all spot on. There is a 3 year difference in their ages, but what have each done with their respective years flying around the sun?
I think the same way you do. However, I've learned over the years that narcissists don't appear to get sick! However, even a narcissist will eventually have to pay for his lifestyle choices!
Also, Biden is obviously very healthy. He may fall off his bike occasionally (who hasn't?), but at least he bikes, (does Trump?) jogs, and has a loving relationship with a wonderful woman. He is a happy, healthy guy!
Yes, indeed what can you expect from people making polls, standing up to their knees in efforts to manipulate the election. It is about setting conditions for later accusations of a manipulated election.
Interesting! Hadn't thought of that! Still have to remain hopeful, though, and work, work, work! Biden has to win big, and that may cause the Supreme Court to again find that elections were not rigged. Unless they are rigged by Republicans!
Incredibly inspiring rant, thank you! Before I had even read the Concluding Thoughts I'd copied two quotes from today's missive to post and repost every opportunity I get between now and up to and including election day. 1) "No one who votes in 2024 will be deciding between Biden and Trump. They will be deciding between democracy and autocracy, moderation and extremism, equality and white nationalism, reproductive liberty and religious intolerance, dignity and bigotry, climate protection and fossil fuels, the Constitution and insurrection, and order and chaos." ~ Robert Hubbell, Today’s Edition Newsletter on Substack. And, 2) "In the lead-up to 2024, we can take nothing for granted, leave nothing on the table, and spare no effort. We have learned from bitter experience that Trump will enlist our foreign adversaries and encourage violence to gain the presidency. We should assume he will do the same in 2024." ~ Robert Hubbell, Today’s Edition Newsletter on Substack. Both excellent and enduring additions to the 2024 playbook!!! Onward.
Britta, that first statement is especially insightful. It reflects the fact that human beings are complicated creatures with nuanced opinions that can rarely be expressed as A or B.
A favorite example of this is the approval/disapproval numbers. A lot of progressives are disappointed with some of the compromises President Biden made to get key legislation passed. Others think he should have done more to push for single-payer health care, or some other pet issue. That counts as disapproval, but obviously is no indication they'd consider voting for a Republican.
Another often repeated claim is that a majority of voters don't want a Biden/Trump re-match. Well for starters, most Democrats don't want Trump anywhere near the electoral process. A substantial number of Republicans also don't want Trump to be their candidate. Then there are the Republicans who don't want Biden because he'll likely win, and the diminishing number of Democrats still pining for a different nominee. Add it all up and you have a nice pseudo-statistic for a pseudo-party like "No Labels" to toss around.
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Excellent analysis!
Right on!!!
Bravo Mr. Weiss! I especially like your final sentence re the fraudulent "No Labels" crowd. I can't believe these people, such as Nancy Jacobson and her defrocked Democrat pollster husband Mark Penn, actually want to see a renewed Trump presidency. But they clearly seek a seat at the public-policy table--and a continuing opportunity for donations and employment. As an enhanced third-party vote is I believe Trump's ONLY road to victory, a la 2000 and 2016, we must do EVERYTHING in our power to insure against such an Electoral College victory/Popular vote defeat for the GOP. I would even suggest a well-hidden sub-rosa support for an even-farther rightwing third party candidate, someone who could be our Ralph Nader or Jill Stein. In today's world of razor-thin margins and a plenitude of ambitious far right crazies, it shouldn't be THAT hard.
I appreciate the Bravo, Roger. But I'll have to disagree about supporting any farther-right third-party candidate.
Those who might be attracted to that candidate would likely otherwise stay home if they don't want to vote for Trump. That's a good thing, particularly since it helps all Democrats down-ballot. Let's not give them a reason to come out.
I recommend you check out Simon Rosenberg's newsletter and his campagin to "Get to 55" (percent): https://simonwdc.substack.com
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Hi, Britta! Thanks for spreading the news that we can and will beat MAGA extremism in 2024 if we give it our all!
Bob's exhortation cannot be repeated often enough. I was struck by the two parts of today's newsletter that you quoted. They summed up best his themes. When most of us were still reading print editions of our principal newspapers, someone asked me why I was reading the NY Times instead of the WSJ, which they were reading, I told the person based on the WSJ's editorial page , that the only use for the WSJ in my home would be to wrap a dead fish in it. Unfortunately , I find myself thinking that may be the best use for certain issues of the NY Times, which I still read in print . Its almost as though the management of mainstream papers like the NY Times, WaPo , the LA Times etc. do not realize the threat to their future posed by another Trump presidency. His administration will be filled with Jeffrey Clarke's, John Eastman and others of their ilk . The first thing to go in an autocracy is a free press.
Britta, Thanks! You are SO right!!! I also grabbed those two quotes and will find ways to use and disseminate! Thanks also, Robert!
I totally agree with you, Britta! Onward!
Thanks for the cogent reminder to IGNORE the polls. I’ve learned that they are like slick 30 second adds on TV. If you say them enough, MAYBE we will believe them. NONSENSE! Do the math. MAGA is a distinct minority voting bloc. Yes, we should flood the mainstream media with letters and calls asking for more positive coverage of the Biden administration’s remarkable achievements. Yes, we need to donate to states running blue candidates against the good ole boys. But the GOP sunk their chances with the abortion issue big time and denial of climate change. (Can I say Global Warming)? Women and youth are going to come out en mass and vote BLUE. The grey haired South will never change but they are distinctly in the minority and flailing. Look at De Santis. Look at Abbot, preventing pregnant women from leaving his state. Witch burning next?
Yes, please say global warming, because that's what it is! What happens in one part of the world affects the rest of us in one way or other(s). The migrations from the southern hemisphere aren't because of a few forest fires in CA. It's of a piece and we're all involved - and eventually responsible for all of us on the planet.
Hi, Beth. It is hard to know what words to use to describe the climate crisis. When I use the term "global warming," some readers point out that one of the climate effects of carbon emissions is that winters will be wetter and colder in some places, or that oceans will desalinate, or that the North Atlantic current will stop. So, I have settled on "climate crisis." I realize that no term is perfect but that term is broadly encompassing.
Good points Robert. My concern is that even "climate crisis" isn't enough of an alarm bell. So many things get named "crisis" these days that the word has lost some of its potency.
Think about the amount of risk the next 3 human generations face of starvation on a MASSIVE scale, migrants fleeing hundreds of flooded or scorched areas, wiping out edible species of animals, widespread wars, governments becoming much more repressive &/or unstable, "new" communicable diseases, etc. And this set of horrors may well unfold over the next 50-75 years(!), less than 1% of the time since the first established human civilizations arose.
IMO, the most accurate name for this fairly likely scenario is "the looming climate-driven societal catastrophe". (An acronym capturing that concept would be very helpful!)
I'm certainly no expert re: the climate models, and dozens of factors and feedback loops are at play here. But I believe we must use language that separates these 2:
a) a "crisis" in which hundreds of people die from a fire, flood, hurricane, heat wave, or chemical release ;
b) a "crisis" in which circumstances threaten 1 or 2 aspects of the security of say a few million people (think monetary crisis);
c)an unimaginable, decades-long cascade of events threatening every human's safety, and possibly their survival.
There's an argument that making people terribly frightened about our future can lead millions of them to feel like this is a hopeless situation. And widespread adverse mental health consequences for teens and others can't be ignored. Those too must be avoided as best possible.
I see the messaging as "We're headed toward humanity's worst catastrophe, but we know how to avoid it if we get in very high gear, especially in the critical nations producing most of the greenhouse gases. We can do this!"
I like both terms. We can all feel the heat, but it's also the storms and the floods and the drought and the death of other species. For awhile it seemed like climate change deniers had given in and conceded it is a fact and it is man made (or at least certainly primarily so). Surely this new surge of denialism is the death throe of that death cult... I just don't want it to be the death of our livable planet.
So true! If we pay attention we can see how badly they are flailing. However, we cannot let up our efforts. These guys never give up! It's going to be a year-long-fight from which we cannnot rest.
As for Robert’s valid justifications for not getting hung up on polling data, I will add one more. How people respond more than one year out from an election is measurably different from how they respond as the decision date approaches. On a related matter, while, admittedly, I am one of the people who is deeply concerned that Biden fails to take full advantage of the bully pulpit, especially at a time when a substantial swath of Americans do not have a felt sense of the Administration’s accomplishments, were I a party spokesperson, every time anyone questioned Biden’s competence, I would emphatically drive home results these past three years both at home and abroad.
Agree with your comments. The best polls are the ones you take yourself with your friends and relatives.
Stephen, While I appreciate your concurrence, nowhere did I, or would I, suggest that the most reliable polls emanate from one’s personal circle.
Though I imagine you generally hang out with like-minded folk and don’t get a lot of cross-pollination from those on the other side of the political spectrum.
I apologize in advance if I am mistaken in that assumption.
Your partially right but I live in a retirement community of individuals who I believe represent a somewhat cross section of the electoral demographics of voters and although this is not perfect or scientific it gives valuable insights
I do have a couple of friends who are watching these mainstream media polls and want someone other than Biden (Tim Kaine??? Gavin Newsom???) I understand their concerns about Biden. He has seemed a little shaky lately, but look at what he has done. And the excellent people he surrounds himself with!
I read some stuff about the WSJ poll & the person/pollster that conducted it. 600 of the 750 respondants were Republican primary voters. The poll itself was conducted by Tony Fabrizio who is/was in league with Paul Manafort & trump at the time of the Mueller Report
Ignore the polls!!
Hi, Dea. Thanks for the information. I will research.
So with a heavily skewed poll towards republicans, the result was that Biden tied trump. That is a bad result (for repubs), and any accurate reporting would say so, but it's the WSJ, so that won't happen. I'm inclined to believe it's just bullsh*t, knowing that it was conducted by a trump ally (and the exact 750/1500 also points to a made-up poll).
OMG!
I completely agree with this edition but I am faced with the remote (?) possibility that Trump won't be the candidate. Living in a community of the wealthy retired I do hear that many have said they won't vote for Trump, but "Biden is too old" (this in a community filled with over 80 year olds).. My fear is that either DeSantis or Ramaswamy or some other Republican will be the candidate we face. As much as I fear Trump's candidacy I believe he is beatable. But I believe that, reviewing Scott's 11 or 12 points I believe that any Republican, though especially the Trump wannabees, will implement the anti Democracy and vicious destruction of our institutions that Trump targets. Our target should be defend Biden and condemn the autocracy promised by the Republican party.
Well Charles, take some consolation in the fact that neither DeSantis nor Ramaswamy are going to be appealing candidates with the general election. They, in fact, are only one more iteration of a party that has gone off the rails big time. Get out the vote. Get out the message. Take nothing for granted.
Very good point and valid concern.
Excellent post! And now that you have written it, I think you should provide a link to it in every issue of Today's Edition that goes out. :) My rant, if I were to write it, would be that 6 companies own 90% of all media. There are a bunch of articles/charts on this, I like this one: https://techstartups.com/2020/09/18/6-corporations-control-90-media-america-illusion-choice-objectivity-2020/
Guess which side they are on? this is why I'm grateful for you, Substack, podcasts etc.
Hi Annamarie. very interesting article.
Sinclair Broadcasting is missing from the list. Any insights there?
Thanks for the link, Annamarie. However, at the beginning of the article there is a glaring error: "Back in 2018, Jim Morrison, a singer, songwriter, and poet, who served as the lead vocalist of the rock band, once said: “Whoever controls the media, controls the mind.” Jim Morrison died in 1971, so it does make me question whether there was any fact checking of the article with such a glaring error, i.e. it wasn't a typo. I wonder if there is another source for this information.
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Annamarie,
Thanks for sharing that. I knew of it, but not quite in such detail.
Again thanks.
Someone famous once said that “ perception is reality” and right wing media has been flooding the media with so much misinformation that many people don’t know what to believe any more. President Biden was in Philadelphia for a Labor Day event and when he finished speaking he walked the rope and spoke with and shook hands with the people in attendance. One bystander complimented President Biden on his Presidential hat and Joe took the hat off and exchanged it with the bystander for his hat. A simple gesture and a telling one about the man himself. It’s a shame voters don’t care more about a person’s character and ability to do the job rather than the entertainment and playing to the audience value of the person. At the end of the day you could say that President Biden is boring but definitely honest and most importantly is getting the job done.
Boring - unless you get the deftness of his wisecracks 😎
I totally agree, Beth!
Even then he is not and never was a characteristic personality
Do you mean charismatic?
Yes my mind and fingers were not in sync
No worries. Happens to me too!
Thanks for sharing that example!
Hee's my thought. I think Biden was pretty unboring at last year's State of the Union! Remember how he got the Republicans to say they were not trying to cut Medicare? Though he might be boring, as you point out, he has access to his feelings, and, as in your anecdote, he uses them in one-on-one occasions, such as at the Florida event when he shook hands and spoke to everyone who wanted to shake his hand and speak with him. In the presence of so much evil in the world, President Biden is an example of goodness through and through. I'm not sure everyone sees him that way, but I do think a significant number of them do.
Polls are useless, whether months ahead, or the day before the election. What matters is how people vote. Ignore the polls, and continue all efforts to register new voters and encouraging people to vote.
I share the concern that the realities of the improving economy are not being touted loud enough - or even at all by the MSM. Very frustrating. But let's face it. Despite significant improvements, there are still terrible things happening to working class families.
Mortgage rates prohibit buying ever more expensive houses. Biden has extended some relief to student borrowers, but the courts and Congress won't allow him to do enough. And my favorite subject, help with child care is expiring along with Covid era SNAP benefits.
So sure, inflation is better. Millions of jobs are being created. Good! But if you are still living in your parents basement and you had to quit your job because you can't afford child care, while the government demands repayment of a student loan, how would you respond to a rigged poll?
There is only so much that a president can do to control an economy. The new student loan plan is a good effort. But in fact, without support from the Fed and Congress, the executive branch can just trim around the edges.
The campaign for democracy should refocus on the enormous threat to our freedom. We need to scream about the efforts to white wash history. We need to scream about women losing their reproductive freedom. We need to scream about the world wide disasters caused by the warming planet - and the role the GQP politicians play in causing it. We have gobs of ammunition.
Talking about achievements is fine. But here is the thing. When people vote in a presidential election, they tend to vote out the presiding party if they are unhappy. Despite all the fine accomplishments of this and other Democratic administrations, it doesn't bode well when people are struggling more than ever.
There are multiple reasons why peoples lives will get significantly worse with the GQP and MAGA mania. And we need to make that clear. People should be terrified. We need to rain down some other reality that is scary. A future dominated by sexist old white bigots who don't care if the planet burns to a crisp.
And this effort should be directed primarily to social media. The voters we are looking for stare at their phones. They don't follow ABC, CBS or NBC, etc. MSM is for us old timers. Find Gen Y and Z where they live - not what our generation watched. Boomer votes are already locked in. Spend campaign money where it will matter. Getting younger potential voters angry enough to vote will deliver a Blue Trifecta. Without them, we are in a spiral dive.
Yes, I was waiting for somebody to point out that there’s a great deal of suffering in our country. The Democrats need to explain that a lot of this is because of the tax cuts for the wealthy pushed by Bush and Trump. They need to show how Democrats could drastically improve the lives of homeless veterans, for example as well as farm workers as well as victims of domestic violence, etc. they can’t keep bragging about the great economybecause it’s not true for many people. Acknowledge that Biden, and Harris are very poor communicators who speak in generalities. It doesn’t mean they’re bad at their jobs but get other Democrats like Josh Shapiro and Gretchen Whitmer to be surrogates. They need to talk not about Biden but about what democrats are doing across the country.
Yes and Yes!
I do agree with most of what you say, Bill. There are many people suffering at this time. Many people are working more than one job just to feed their families In LA, Landlords are evicting the poor who haven't been able to afford the exorbitant rents that exist in our city. (Having worked three jobs myself in order to pay for my daughter's college tuition, etc, I can tell you how tough that is!) But Biden must, in every speech he gives, make the point about saving our democracy. However, I think we must believe that we can win this thing by working our tails off on a daily basis, which, as Robert says, will be expensive and exhausting. But what choice do we have? And we must hold onto hope!
Thanks for another thought-provoking post. I too think the facts are on Biden’s side but wonder if you have any thoughts on the relative power of facts vs. emotion? I’ve spent most of my life trying to use facts, logic, and reason to convince people to see the world how it really is and failed 99.9% of the time. It’s been said that you can’t reason someone out of a position they didn’t reason themselves into, and I worry that an over-reliance on ‘reason’ by the Dems may in fact show a fatal misunderstanding of how best to persuade someone to change their mind. Even though I revere facts and reason, I still find myself persuaded by stories, humor, and emotion. Because of that, I sometimes ask myself if Dems are more fluent in ‘fact’ and Republicans are more fluent in ‘emotion’? And I can’t help wondering if the Dems could persuade more Republicans to switch sides if they communicated ‘the facts’ with more stories, humor, and emotion?
Very good points. As my wife wisely counsels, "Don't tell me how to feel." My point is that I think the WSJ poll is intended to mislead about how people are feeling by forcing survey choices that ignore the political reality in America today.
It’s not the facts it’s the perceptions and they are being manipulated by many different groups.
You are so sane, Robert.
Glad to hear others think so!
Robert, you spoke of horse races regarding polls. Pardon my language, but polls are horseshit. I loved that you vented your frustrations to us. I feel exactly the same way. I honestly try not to pay attention to them. Actually, Biden doesn’t believe in polls either and he has said so. Let’s just concentrate on one thing...SAVING DEMOCRACY!
The question consistently comes up in polls (judging by the “findings”announced in poll results) that many people are concerned about Joe Biden’s age. Fair enough, even though he has blown by almost every former President with the depth and breadth of accomplishments despite the country’s low point his administration started in.
Why isn’t there the same concern about Trump’s age emblazoned on the front page? He’s just a step behind Biden in that category. Why focus on one’s seniority while ignoring the other? This is not whataboutism; this is comparing apples to apples and oranges to oranges (though Biden doesn’t have that weird orange glow).
And why isn’t there the same scrutiny about the Kushner “business dealings” which are far worse than Hunter Biden’s?
There is a committee in the Senate, I believe, that is looking into Kushner and the Trump children.
The DOJ and the committee! Jack Smith is looking at the GOP members of Congress who helped J6 happen. I am thinking Bobo and MGT plus Gaetz, Biggs (Andy), and Gosar head up that membership.
Right!
Biden rides a bicycle. That takes a lot of neurons firing in perfect synchrony.
Trump eats junk food and golfs. He does not walk the course, he is driven.
Biden is not over weight.
Trump is obese.
Biden can string sentences together that make a point or answer the question he has been asked.
Trump can not answer a question or make a point without rambling. Or lying. Even if his life depended on it.
Case in point: a recent deposition where it went on for hours because Trump would not just answer the question!
I keep thinking that Trump is a heart attack and/or a stroke waiting to happen. I finally realized that he has no heart and his brain is so tiny it could shrivel up and die and none of us would notice.
Very good points!
"...his brain is so tiny it could shrivel up and die and none of us would notice." Oh, you haven't noticed? 😈 Seriously, though, your points are all spot on. There is a 3 year difference in their ages, but what have each done with their respective years flying around the sun?
Spot on.
I think the same way you do. However, I've learned over the years that narcissists don't appear to get sick! However, even a narcissist will eventually have to pay for his lifestyle choices!
I know, right?
What ever good karma I have amassed in my lifetime of medical care has been seriously compromised by the actions and effects of this one human being.
Also, Biden is obviously very healthy. He may fall off his bike occasionally (who hasn't?), but at least he bikes, (does Trump?) jogs, and has a loving relationship with a wonderful woman. He is a happy, healthy guy!
Man, I edited all of my grammatical errors. Sheesh…that’ll teach me to wear my reading glasses before I make a statement! 🙄🤩
Your effort to reassure and keep us on a rational footing is much appreciated. Thank you.
MSM bias is endless... the “bad news bias” is endless.. some things never change...
PRESIDENT Harry S Truman lost to NY’s GOVERNOR Thomas E. Dewey, SCREAMED The Tribune of Chicago.. HEADLINE... ON ELECTION DAY, 1948.
Thanks for your post!
Yes, indeed what can you expect from people making polls, standing up to their knees in efforts to manipulate the election. It is about setting conditions for later accusations of a manipulated election.
Interesting! Hadn't thought of that! Still have to remain hopeful, though, and work, work, work! Biden has to win big, and that may cause the Supreme Court to again find that elections were not rigged. Unless they are rigged by Republicans!