Thank you for the suggestion to read Mike’s post. It is one of my great joys with SubStack to find new, thoughtful, informative writers. It is a good community.
I read the redux and the original articles. And I subscribed. He does an excellent job of explaining why we should ignore the horse race poll reporting. He also does a good job of calling MSM to task for reporting on polls ad nauseum and not reporting on the key things voters need to know to make thoughtful choices. He calls MSM out for trying to make the reporting even between Biden and Trump when it can not possibly be. You can’t find enough bad things about Biden’s actions to “balance” out the many bad actions of Trump that need to be reported. So MSM does these stupid polls and then reports on them. Oh and Biden’s age. That is really about all the bad they can find.
The real story that should be getting the oxygen the last 2 days is the 2025 Plan by the Republican Trump backers to decimate our rights and our liberty.
PS. I subscribe to Chop Wood, Carry Water. Keep up the good work.
Just want to share a DNC virtual training-Reach Your People GOTV Share Bank- on mobilize. Especially for folks who have social media accounts (facebook, instagram, etc) they link you to easy to copy messaging. Simon Rosenberg encourages all of us to be “messaging warriors’and I am starting there! I am trying to get better at tech and join social media to do this and the training was great. I will try and attach the link but 🤞🤷♀️.
Right on! I can’t quite understand how a democratic system should allow someone who will kill it be allowed to run. It’s like a weird syllogism that in order to prove who you are you must commit suicide. Or like opening your front door while a murderer lurks outside with an assault rifle and shouting come right on in, loot our house, kill our dog and slaughter all of us because I believe in absolute freedom to do whatever we want. Why should a creature like Trump and his morons be given such an invitation? Tocqueville warned about such a thing happening. Unthinkable and we have to prevent such a sickening travesty from happening.
Personally I think the NY Times has taken a hard turn to the right. It certainly is doing its best to choose headlines that give a less than favorable impression of the Biden administration. For example, two days ago the headline for the October favorable jobs report was: Job Growth Slows, Sowing a Mix of Concern and Calm
I don't trust polling any more especially after how obvious it was to me that the red wave wasn't going to happen because of the anger over Dobbs that isn't going away for a long, long time. Although I won't be complacent it would shock me if DT wins the presidency or even comes close. The American People are smarter than that! We, the People, all of us this time!
A reader sent a note this morning discussing the fact that the Times admits that its sample was overweighted with Republicans but it then "smoothed" the data. Yeah, right.
It is easy to smooth the data if you already know the answer you're looking for! At Hampshire College, an experimental college, years ago they even had a course titled: How to Lie with Statistics!
It's sad to see great newspapers catering to "both sides" in politics (presumably for the sake of making more money) even when one side is trying to murder our democracy.
Nov 6, 2023·edited Nov 6, 2023Liked by Robert B. Hubbell
You are correct and many others have been noticing.
If you are not aware of it already, I suggest you check out the very funny "NYTimes Pitchbot" account on X, https://twitter.com/dougjballoon - he is constantly making fun of the Times for their inevitable "both-sidesism" and thei r tendency to frame everthing as "and why that's bad news for Joe Biden."
As for the polls, rememebr that TFG has been almost completely knocked out of the news cycle for the past month by the war in Gaza, which allows people to forget just how awful and insane he is. Once he is back campaigning and being his usual self, voters will wake up.
ETA: The Pitchbot also does a wonderful job of skewering the NYT's frequent "Cletus Safaris" where they go to red states and report on the people there as if they were anthropologists reporting on a primitve Amazonian tribe. (Hence "In this Ohio diner...") as well as the incandescent purple prose of the Cooking secton, Maureen Dowd, and, of course, Glenn Greenwald (who does not write for the Times, but still...)
Lucky for them to be able to forget, Alan. I see his picture flash on the TV screen and I get PTSD. He's a walking nightmare.
May his malignant narcissist cloak of charisma keep weakening until the evil inside is clearly revealed to his followers, similar to the increasingly futile veneer of his long hair "pressed into service" daily by numerous quarts of high octane "Helmet Head" hairspray.
(Pardon my less than gracious tone, Robert and Hubbell Newsletter friends. I blame it on exposure for more than eight years to a dictator-in-training who has hypnotized a chunk of our citizens to the detriment of this country and has yet to be held accountable. Hopefully that will be remedied soon.)
Well stated Cathy! This is why I cancelled my NYT subscription. I actually resubscribed last month for the “dollar a month for 3 months “ deal and am not sure if I will cancel again after that time is up.
On one hand I like being able to keep up with what they print, but on the other hand, I hate enabling them by paying for a subscription when they print garbage like this front page poll .
I have cancelled my subscription to the NYT and haven't been drawn back in by their special offers. I still get the emails with the headlines and that let's me know what they think are the top stories. I'm becoming more and more reliant on my substack subscriptions for news. I don't watch the news any more because it is too gruesome and negative. Listening to it is easier but I still turn it off when it is too much DT or Gaza. Wish it was all less commentary and more just straight news separated from commentary. Things like what is going on with the indictments/trials could be summarized in two sentences of news and DT would not get so much oxygen.
I read about 5 substacks each morning before I read the NYT or WashPo. When I finally get to the NYT and WashPo, I quickly become disgusted with the headlines. Some of the opinion writers in both papers are informative. Personally, I think substack readers are growing and will eventually replace regular media.
What I think the news media doesn't understand is that while negative news gets our attention (a survival mechanism of the species) in the long run we listen to what gives us hope and a positive view of our future. The substacks I read all have a common thread of hope.
Yes, that is what positive journalism is all about -- not just providing news but also ways to move forward toward a better future. My dream is that our government will be measured by a Well Being Index at least equal to GDP and all legislation would have to show how it improves the well being of All the People. See Dr. Martin Seligman's (father of positive psychology) theory of well being. Short video introduction: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-D2kDuP-5A More info: https://www.authentichappiness.sas.upenn.edu/learn
I read 5-6 news or political info Substacks and follow that many podcasts. (Then I balance that out with Substacks and podcasts that have nothing to do with politics—just things I enjoy!) I'm finding less and less need to even turn on the television for news information. If it's "breaking," it will be in my Substacks and podcasts with balanced perspectives that help me understand the significance or screen out the noise.
The thing they can do is big stories that take a lot of manpower in terms of research. Sometimes those pieces are good and valuable, like the children working at dangerous and horrible jobs.
I have been reading the NYTimes since the 1950s - Really ! It is in my DNA now but like so many of you I see a deficiency of tone if not an outright rightward bias. They are bending over to be equal to all. But we are not equal in this case and certainly Biden and Trump are not equal. One should be a convicted criminal - not because he is a convicted sexual abuser but because he actually did attempt s coup to stay in power. We all watched it on TV ! That the judicial system bends over backwards to accommodate him makes me sick. So much for contempt of court ! The NYTimes needs to get a moral backbone and start hitting him with a 2 by 4. The extreme right dies not read the Times, has never and will never. So it should be energizing the people who know Trump has to be denied a second term but are overwhelmed or too fatalistic to believe we can win ! Again and Again !
I will prob end up canceling. I, too, rely a lot on substack for good analysis. But… reading the top comments is always interesting and enlightening. the majority of the commenters disagree vehemently with the article. I’m wondering how to amplify those voices?
I surely hope so, Frankom, and will be doing my part by voting tomorrow in Virgina; also, I volunteerd to be a poll "greeter" for the Democratic ticket!
I'm precinct captain, and our normal volunteers are unavailable for one reason or another. So I'll be setting up my tent and table and at our Shenandoah County firehouse from 6 am - 7pm. We're a red red red county, but by golly, Republicans are going to SEE that Democrats are here, too!
Go, Linda! We're red with purple overtones here in Loudoun County. I'll be promoting the idea of voting FOR democratic values, not against any one candidate.
Oh, GOOD for you...and all of us! In Maine, tomorrow's "election" is for state-wide referendums and proposed constitutional amendments. Turnout might be low--hard to tell. No particular hot button issues to fire people up, although the CMP/Pine Tree Power question might have gotten a few folks hot under the collar.
primaries and local elections are important and frankly have more impact on most people's daily lives.
I am NOT in favor of making everyone vote - I think a person should inform themselves of the issues and candidates, beyond what letter is behind the name on the ballot. Anyone unwilling or incapable of doing that, I am happy if they don't vote. (Caveat: I am doing my best to inform friends, neighbors and the general public of the issues, candidates, and lies in the attack ads. Thus informed, certainly i want to help them vote their interests!)
In my area, primaries not in presidential cycle years typically draw less than 25% of the registered voters. I take this as a personal challenge, that MY VOTE will have an even GREATER IMPACT.
(Flip side: primaries have led to the extremist candidates getting on the general ballot elections - how we ended up with the anti-government MAGA/Freedom Caucus lunatics instead of thinking people who can hear the public's concerns and negotiate across the aisle to actually do WORK!)
My state is almost a third-a third- a third
with Independents, then Democrats, then what is currently calling itself the GOP in that order,
and a few other parties sprinkled in after.
However, due to gerrymandering, the GOP has a supermajority in the State Legislature/ General Assembly.
We are also the state with major ties to all the awful voter suppression /coup enablers - including many of the co-conspirators in the January 6, 2021 insurrection.
Bottom line: I am adopting the slogan of many of the angry women responding to these attacks to take away OUR RIGHTS -
I agree completely with all that you have written. My comment was in the nature of things as they unfortunately are. Many people simply don't understand the importance of even the most minor of ballot initiatives and this year we actually have some important and complex questions on some issues that merit some serious consideration. I hope that people have educated themselves about the questions--I do my best to discuss those issues with friends and relatives. We'll see how it goes.
I am sort of on nerve suppression about Virginia. Having spent 74 years in Virginia the election of Youngkin was an unwelcome event. The last two years in the deep blue of Charlotte NC has been refreshing. Looking at NC as a whole the Republican damage is more serious, ingrained and will be stubborn to remove.
I think it's a given that we will always be living on the edge. Our side needs to face that fact, push back wherever we can, and DON'T have a meltdown!
Thanks for being a voter, and PLEASE HELP US get out the vote in Charlotte/Mecklenburg and statewide.
Charlotte, Durham, Wake, the Triad and Asheville COULD determine the outcome of all the state races IF we can get turnout over 75-80%. A tall order, but worth setting the goal.
Prime example of the GOP continuing to gerrymander voting districts.
The reason Jeff Jackson has been mapped out of his Congressional seat
and will be running for the State Attorney General instead of reelection to the House of Representatives.
Keep meeting and talking to people, and as we listen to their concerns, strategically point out the GOP is only griping with no solutions, and for real change we need to overcome apathy and VOTE.
Once we SAVE our RIGHT TO VOTE, then they can decide what other policies are priorities for them - BUT IF THEY DO NOT VOTE in 2024, the extremists pretending to be Republicans will take away our right to vote at all.
Country over Party.
Democracy is really the only thing on the ballot in 2024.
Thanks for pointing out this thing that seems to be going on with the Times, Cathy. They seem to be bending over backwards to spin the really good news on the economy, jobs, infrastructure that is a result of the Biden administration’s hard work. I just don’t get it and am glad to know I am not the only one wondering what’s going on with them.
I couldn't agree more. The problem being that so many people believe the polls! We must get out there and spread the news of Biden's accomplishments. As Robert says, many of those people polled didn't know about Biden's accomplishments, but once they did, Biden's approval numbers went up! We have to shout them from the rooftops, and in one-on-one conversations with those who are reading the wrong news material or reading nothing! The path is clear; work is the answer!
If you thought my above comment seemed to come from outer space, you’d be justified in thinking so.
I wrote it when there were only a couple of Comments. It was supposed to be attached to an early Comment by Cathy Learoyd. Somehow, Substack *detached* it from the Comment to which it was originally attached.
I saw this on the news and all I could say was bull shit, a year out are you kidding. We can’t lay back and we we have to work even harder but the polls are pure unadulterated bullshit. All Democrats must get the message out and the GOP is incapable of governing. Thanks Robert!
The public is not aware of all the good things President Biden has done because the media focuses on his age, his opponent, more on his opponent, more on his age.
Plus, the Biden administration hasn't been very good at promoting his achievements. The Dems need to hire some very good PR people to design & run ads on all the popular networks (including Fox), letting people know about everything Pres. Biden has accomplished for Americans during his term.
Nov 6, 2023·edited Nov 6, 2023Liked by Robert B. Hubbell
President Biden has accomplished tremendous things for America under extremely difficult circumstances. He's done amazing things to help grow this country from "the middle out and the bottom up." I'm so proud of him and so grateful for the improvements he's won for us.
There are many dedicated grass roots organizations that have worked hard to spread the word about Biden's accomplishments. But they can only cover so much ground in a country this large. President Biden has visited various towns and talked about his new programs, but that doesn't seem to cut through the noise in the national media for more than a few minutes. Vice President Harris and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg appearing in a few locations around the country and sitting for a couple interviews in a late night talk show are not enough.
So I still don't understand why the Democratic Party "apparatus" has not launched a simple, clear and powerful message telling Americans what our President has done for us and then devised a plan to blanket this country with that message for the next year.
Among other ideas, there are some high powered, excellent communicators in politics, entertainment and sports with charisma, good reputations and a large social media following who support President Biden and could spread the word very effectively. Or just a clever campaign from a great ad agency could do the trick.
I have yet to hear a rational reason why the Democratic Party has not already started this kind of extensive, effective national messaging. It's not rocket science. It's desperately needed in this existential crisis. The failure to create and launch a winning messaging strategy when so many Americans don't seem to know the great things President Biden has done for us feels like political malpractice.
I'd really like to know why this is not happening.
I think part of the problem is overcommunication of fundraising requests. My email is inundated with requests from all over the country. Most offer a little substance, and then a big ask. Perhaps focusing on delivering a thoughtful message would be better than making the message about fundraising.
Yes, it is far too much and I don't have the time to unsubscribe to the majority of them. And, definitely no substance about the candidate! I did send one candidate a donation because they were substantive and only had one small donate button at the bottom.
CC, agree with you 100%. I'd really like to know as well. I appreciate your ability to boil it down and then offer a sensible solution.
There must be more than a few people in the White House monitoring Robert on Substack, and here's hoping someone reads your comment as well. Barring that, maybe you could write your comment as a letter and send it to WH Communications or the Biden Campaign, or the DCC....
Whatever the reasoning is behind the lack of effective advertising by the Democratic Party, they are not interested in sharing that with the rest of us.
I only heard one attempted explanation many months ago by Cornell Belcher on MSNBC. The jist of it was that Democrats he'd spoken with (and I don't remember if it was in one part of the country or nationwide) weren't comfortable with a big advertising campaign. His comment gave the impression that those Democrats thought it was too unseemly or something to that effect. That didn't make any sense to me then and it still doesn't now.
I emailed President Biden about it once or twice. I know the most I can expect from that is to get a check mark by a White House intern under some subject heading included in a list of topics contained in comments sent to the President.
I'm hoping we see more effective messaging about the president's accomplishments soon...maybe some time in January, 2024 after the upcoming holidays and after this initial jumble of news stories about Trump's outrageous and shameful lawsuits. I wouldn't place any bets on this subject, but I haven't given up hope.
No idea if this link will work cause here’s the issue- not great with tech and not on social media! - But the DNC has Reach Your People GOTV Share Bank - which has you join a bank of messages you can send to people you know / or don’t ! So I am working toward be a “messaging warrior” as Simon Rosenberg has promoted- WE can all help get this messaging out too. It was on mobilize if the link does not work.
I realize your are talking about reaching larger audiences but we can start small too...
The Biden Administration is results focused and believes the coverage of the Trump trials will impact voters as they continue to deliver. The continued misfiring in the House and more convictions and admissions all contribute to building momentum. The election is a year away and a lot will happen that will influence voters.
If they don't start soon with better messaging, then the NY Times lopsided polls and other s like theirs will fill the vacuum. It's hard to be patient!
I agree CC, it's exasperating to see nothing coming from the Biden administration to outline all that he has achieved. I can't remember who, but I recently heard someone from the Biden administration saying that all the good that Biden has done will be coming soon in messaging.
I actually think anything noted to the American people right now could be a waste of time. Too many people have memories that are much too short, and the facts will have vanished from their brains a year from now. Especially now with the heavy focus on Israel and Hamas. The daily display of antisemitism versus Islamophobia in this country is sickening. The Oct 7th attack on Israeli's was a "complete surprise"? I don't think so. I think Netanyahu was well aware and this war was his goal to put him in position of "hero". It also quite obviously has the ability to undermine Biden's leadership here. Putin did that in 2016 and it's Netanyahu's turn for 2024. They want a corruption back in our White House, just like they have for leadership in their countries.
There's also current competition in the MSM with Inmate P01135809's many indictments. "Never interfere with an enemy while he's in the process of destroying himself. " Let TFG have the spotlight with all the news he presents daily. We'll hopefully turn the corner on this soon where we can start hearing the many accomplishments of the current presidency., and start moving forward again.
Actually, we in Pennsylvania see positive Biden ads on television all the time, pointing out his many accomplishments. Why have they not risen above the noise?
I agree! So far, the Biden re-election team does not seem energized. However we are ow within a year of the election. Hopefully, they will be more aggressive now.
Robert, thank you again for talking people off the ledge. I saw this headline and skipped right over it. Then, this morning, Jay Kuo’s newsletter arrived, including details on why it would be unlikely for Trump to win this next election. Nothing is completely predictable, but I want to share this link because I think it will make a whole lot of sense to everyone.
You’re welcome, Jay is an attorney who writes a mostly daily newsletter similar to what Joyce Vance puts out. He follows these Trump trials and does a legal analysis for non-lawyers. And he writes “opinion” pieces like this one, based on trends that he sees. He also contributes to George Takei’s newsletter called “The Big Picture.” As an added bonus, he’s got a great sense of humor.
Thanks for sharing and it’s interesting that Nate Silver never gives you the reasoning as identified in this article as a counterbalance to the poll. This article needs to be distribute
Medhi Hassan began his show on MSNBC tonight with this exact doomsday click-bait. I like Medhi for his straight forward approach and was especially disappointed to hear him parroting the story. Good job training viewers to “click.” Turned it off after less than one minute. Cable news viewing steadily decreasing. Substack reads steadily increasing. Appreciate your focusing on this baloney again. Please don’t stop.
That's literally his job. Shut off of the TV news and write postcards to voters, door knock (if it's safe where you live), make calls, etc. Nothing good is on the TV news.
In the 2020 election my wife and I responded to the proliferation of local Trump signs with signs of our own, since the local Democratic machine seemed stuck in low gear. We made about 30 signs with assorted sayings and shared them with friends. Today's article puts me in mind of doing something similar- maybe buttons: "Thanks for the bridges, Joe" Or "Cheaper drugs? I'll take Biden" Feel free to suggest other pithy button slogans that give credit where credit is due.
Here in Maine, the infrastructure money has gotten hundreds of substandard culverts and bridges repaired and/or rebuilt, to be ready for more of the "once in a century" rain events that are delivering floods on a yearly basis; rebuilt roads and more newly tarred roads in rural Maine than I have seen since the 60's.
So here is my button or bumper sticker suggestion: 'Safer Bridges and Smoother "Ridin' with Biden"'.
It's a bit trite but up here, the heavy logging trucks, the Poland Spring water trucks and freeze/thaw cycle of winter weather pounds the heck out of our roads. Having so many of the country roads freshly tarred is wonderful and not just for cars but for us road cyclists, too.
That's a great idea! My home is on a corner, facing a state highway (with speed limit of 30 mph because it is mere blocks from the downtown) and with City Hall adjacent. I freely offer my fence to great candidates for their signs. But I saw one just yesterday that I really liked; it said simply JUST VOTE.
I suspect that a big reason why the Biden Administration’s good deeds haven’t resonated is that they have been largely directed to *red states*. Biden makes a big point of rebuilding rural areas – but guess what the politics of such areas has been (it’s not Democratic).
It may be “the right thing to do”. But it may be stupid politics.
Nov 6, 2023·edited Nov 6, 2023Liked by Robert B. Hubbell
Robert,
Here are some thoughts to calm and encourage your readers, who are my online colleagues.
1. Consider courage, which is rising to the moment in the face of fear.
2. Right-size your anxieties. Most of us have it easy compared to people in war zones or facing serious illness, loss or hardship. And if your troubles are that bad, you're probably not reading this.
3. We don't really know how the next election will turn out. There are reasons for optimism and pessimism, depending on your attitude and the quality of your information. You and Michael Podhorzer cover that well. If you're too pessimistic you won't see your opportunities.
4. Truth is more powerful than lies. Take confidence in what you do know. Trump lost. What he and his MAGA imitators want is dumb and wrong. We can do better.
5. Take care of yourself and your loved ones so you can continue the good fight.
I'm sure I could come up with more, but instead, I'll challenge other readers to add to this list.
I was upset by this latest NY Times/Siena poll, as much because they're promoting it with obvious flaws as because of its dire predictions. Here's my take just for starters. If they're counting people who pick up the phone to answer an unknown caller, the poll is already biased. Most of us are too wary of scammers to answer such calls. Some who answer may be less than truthful in order to slant the results. For more, here's, a link to Michael Podhorzer's very readable refutation of this latest example of journalistic malpractice. Thank you for introducing us to Podhorzer:
I am going to come at this from a slightly different angle. First, I love polls. I am wired in my brain to want to predict the future. You should see my spreadsheets on baseball statistics. When I worked in Congressional campaigns in the eighties, I gravitated to the data people on the campaigns. I was a part-time paid staffer on two of those and unpaid but just as involved on a third. Polling is useful, even today, for campaigns, but for the general public, not so much, particularly when the election is one year out.
The other thing to remember is that while the media uses polling like a bludgeon, campaigns use it like a scalpel. They identify broad areas of concern and use the data to direct money to address the weaknesses. The politicians themselves don't always have a lot to do with these processes, so when you see things like “Democrats privately panicked at recent polling,” it’s because they are. They're human like us and react or overreact the same as we all do. The people they pay to analyze the data take a more measured approach.
Look, I panicked when I saw the NYT poll yesterday. They were scary numbers, but to the extent that some of them are real, but they are also opportunities. Take Michigan; I do think that the Arab population there is deeply disillusioned with Biden, and there’s a lot of work to be done there in the next year. Michigan Democrats are sounding those alarms to the administration. Is it logical to believe nothing will be done about it from both policy and messaging perspectives? Of course not.
Today’s major polling is broken. It’s inexact and then hyperbolized by the media. It's what they do because their chief concern is the bottom line. I do chafe at advice to “ignore the polls” because I would say to look closer at them because they might not say what you think they do. That said in the context of anxiety or panic, ignore the shit out of them. More to the point, ignore the media. In baseball analytics there's a saying that baseball is a math problem until pesky humans get in the way. Well guess what? A lot of humans are going to disrupt these numbers in the next year. Take deep breaths and do your part. Of course, Trump can be defeated but only action will decide that.
Good advice, I looked at the NY Times poll as a guideline for improvement opportunities, not a forecast of outcomes. Many unforeseen things will happen over this next year. Keep pressing forward
I have a question for you, given your expertise and also factoring in a comment above about the WH communications team living in a "bubble": will that bubble burst when polls like this NYT poll make headlines? Do they actually do the deep dive when they see numbers like this or do THEY ignore the polls? I don't know how these things work - how, or if they interact with each other - the numbers and the kool-aid. I would put my money on the fact that the Biden WH seems to have a deep bench of seasoned thinkers who might panic just for a moment, but who might have the skills to figure out how to wield that scalpel you describe.
It’s been a long time but I assume it's the same, yes they're aware of every poll but they don't get too nervous unless internal polling agrees with the external. Even if it's just in one area or group. If they're seeing an erosion of African American men in an external poll they’ll square it with their own. If there's any overlap they’ll recommend strategy to solve it. Things like that.
I find the NYT reprehensible. Instead of informing readers on Biden's accomplishments, and other press too, they just beat up on his age. If he were Black and they were beating up on his race then people would be up in arms, but no, because it is age, that is an acceptable prejudice. Well, the AARP should be invited to spread the news of Biden's accomplishments and any other organizations that stand for the rights of older people. Jane Fonda comes to mind, and several actresses and actors who have embraced their aging and activism. The Democratic National Committee should be reaching out to them to spread the message. https://www.goodgoodgood.co/articles/celebrity-activists
Polls are one thing. Elections are something else. We will have a better sense after the November 7 elections, but so far in 2023, Democrats have been winning election after election. In a way, even more important, Democrats have been performing better in elections than they have in the past. Consider this ABC news article from September https://abcnews.go.com/538/democrats-winning-big-special-elections/story?id=103315703
It is November 8. Again, Democrats have had a good election. Keeping the governorship in Kentucky, regaining control of the Virginia legislature, and passing the Ohio constitutional amendment that will protect abortion in that state.
It is a scourge that we will live with for the next year, so occasional reminders that the only poll that matters will occur on November 5, 2024, is in order.
I so agree.
Long ago, ie pre-2016, I used to say to my husband about the constant chatter 2-3 weeks leading up to the Super Bowl every year, “Geez, why don’t they just play the game? Then they will know who wins”.
Ever since the Great Polling Debacle of 2016 I have learned to ignore polls. And I urge everyone else to do the same.
There are lies, damn lies, statistics, and then there are polls.
With apologies to Samuel Clemens.
Biden/Harris have earned my vote. Period. I will vote blue up and down the ballot in 2024 and every year after for as long as I live.
To help back yourselves off of the ledge I also recommend Mike Podhorzer’s new post: https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelpodhorzer/p/mad-poll-disease-redux?r=160ms&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
And I recommend a good therapist & meds.
Thank you for the suggestion to read Mike’s post. It is one of my great joys with SubStack to find new, thoughtful, informative writers. It is a good community.
I read the redux and the original articles. And I subscribed. He does an excellent job of explaining why we should ignore the horse race poll reporting. He also does a good job of calling MSM to task for reporting on polls ad nauseum and not reporting on the key things voters need to know to make thoughtful choices. He calls MSM out for trying to make the reporting even between Biden and Trump when it can not possibly be. You can’t find enough bad things about Biden’s actions to “balance” out the many bad actions of Trump that need to be reported. So MSM does these stupid polls and then reports on them. Oh and Biden’s age. That is really about all the bad they can find.
The real story that should be getting the oxygen the last 2 days is the 2025 Plan by the Republican Trump backers to decimate our rights and our liberty.
PS. I subscribe to Chop Wood, Carry Water. Keep up the good work.
Well stated. Thank you.
Great comment and thank you!
Just read Podhorzer’s post. Excellent and fortifying. Thanks for posting; I’m subscribing.
You can't go wrong. He's amazing.
Many thanks for the link! He does a great job of putting polling in its proper perspective.
He's the best.
The next Movement Briefing with Anat Shenkar-Osorio and Mike Podhorzer is Thursday, November 9, 2023 at 12pm PT/3pm ET Topic is: Freedom Over Fascism Movement Briefing Register here: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN__bscuYWbSL-EJjX40ljQvw#/registration
Just want to share a DNC virtual training-Reach Your People GOTV Share Bank- on mobilize. Especially for folks who have social media accounts (facebook, instagram, etc) they link you to easy to copy messaging. Simon Rosenberg encourages all of us to be “messaging warriors’and I am starting there! I am trying to get better at tech and join social media to do this and the training was great. I will try and attach the link but 🤞🤷♀️.
https://email.mg.mobilize.us/c/eJxMybFuwyAQgOGngdE6jgOH4QYvHjp3ryicY1QTLExVtU9fZcvwS7_0Zd4iAWUtbHwIEMLsg94ZnZshOkS_pVtKEqK9gcdNMDki2XRhBLTGABmEgGHyGVwEIBtNMjI7RVDvU22f5Sh_Mn1f-uB9jPNSdlG4KlxfTOH67J2k-Tfd-etKu5SH9BofiuBeYzmm1KoeLM__GL-nKLtYPfin9SMru5y95f8AAAD__4JbPmo
Your consistent positive attitude and commitment to positive action is a lighthouse. Keep on shining!
Right on! I can’t quite understand how a democratic system should allow someone who will kill it be allowed to run. It’s like a weird syllogism that in order to prove who you are you must commit suicide. Or like opening your front door while a murderer lurks outside with an assault rifle and shouting come right on in, loot our house, kill our dog and slaughter all of us because I believe in absolute freedom to do whatever we want. Why should a creature like Trump and his morons be given such an invitation? Tocqueville warned about such a thing happening. Unthinkable and we have to prevent such a sickening travesty from happening.
Personally I think the NY Times has taken a hard turn to the right. It certainly is doing its best to choose headlines that give a less than favorable impression of the Biden administration. For example, two days ago the headline for the October favorable jobs report was: Job Growth Slows, Sowing a Mix of Concern and Calm
I don't trust polling any more especially after how obvious it was to me that the red wave wasn't going to happen because of the anger over Dobbs that isn't going away for a long, long time. Although I won't be complacent it would shock me if DT wins the presidency or even comes close. The American People are smarter than that! We, the People, all of us this time!
A reader sent a note this morning discussing the fact that the Times admits that its sample was overweighted with Republicans but it then "smoothed" the data. Yeah, right.
It is easy to smooth the data if you already know the answer you're looking for! At Hampshire College, an experimental college, years ago they even had a course titled: How to Lie with Statistics!
It's sad to see great newspapers catering to "both sides" in politics (presumably for the sake of making more money) even when one side is trying to murder our democracy.
You are correct and many others have been noticing.
If you are not aware of it already, I suggest you check out the very funny "NYTimes Pitchbot" account on X, https://twitter.com/dougjballoon - he is constantly making fun of the Times for their inevitable "both-sidesism" and thei r tendency to frame everthing as "and why that's bad news for Joe Biden."
As for the polls, rememebr that TFG has been almost completely knocked out of the news cycle for the past month by the war in Gaza, which allows people to forget just how awful and insane he is. Once he is back campaigning and being his usual self, voters will wake up.
ETA: The Pitchbot also does a wonderful job of skewering the NYT's frequent "Cletus Safaris" where they go to red states and report on the people there as if they were anthropologists reporting on a primitve Amazonian tribe. (Hence "In this Ohio diner...") as well as the incandescent purple prose of the Cooking secton, Maureen Dowd, and, of course, Glenn Greenwald (who does not write for the Times, but still...)
True but the one poll no one ever ever talks about is the “like ability “ polls which show over 70% of voters don’t like Trump. This is a factor.
Exactly. And when he is out of the spotlight, people forget how much they dislike him.
Lucky for them to be able to forget, Alan. I see his picture flash on the TV screen and I get PTSD. He's a walking nightmare.
May his malignant narcissist cloak of charisma keep weakening until the evil inside is clearly revealed to his followers, similar to the increasingly futile veneer of his long hair "pressed into service" daily by numerous quarts of high octane "Helmet Head" hairspray.
(Pardon my less than gracious tone, Robert and Hubbell Newsletter friends. I blame it on exposure for more than eight years to a dictator-in-training who has hypnotized a chunk of our citizens to the detriment of this country and has yet to be held accountable. Hopefully that will be remedied soon.)
A huge factor!
And his mental deterioration is steady...why not more press about that?
😂😂
Well stated Cathy! This is why I cancelled my NYT subscription. I actually resubscribed last month for the “dollar a month for 3 months “ deal and am not sure if I will cancel again after that time is up.
On one hand I like being able to keep up with what they print, but on the other hand, I hate enabling them by paying for a subscription when they print garbage like this front page poll .
What do you think?
I have cancelled my subscription to the NYT and haven't been drawn back in by their special offers. I still get the emails with the headlines and that let's me know what they think are the top stories. I'm becoming more and more reliant on my substack subscriptions for news. I don't watch the news any more because it is too gruesome and negative. Listening to it is easier but I still turn it off when it is too much DT or Gaza. Wish it was all less commentary and more just straight news separated from commentary. Things like what is going on with the indictments/trials could be summarized in two sentences of news and DT would not get so much oxygen.
I read about 5 substacks each morning before I read the NYT or WashPo. When I finally get to the NYT and WashPo, I quickly become disgusted with the headlines. Some of the opinion writers in both papers are informative. Personally, I think substack readers are growing and will eventually replace regular media.
What I think the news media doesn't understand is that while negative news gets our attention (a survival mechanism of the species) in the long run we listen to what gives us hope and a positive view of our future. The substacks I read all have a common thread of hope.
And, for me, provide visions of how to move forward.
Yes, that is what positive journalism is all about -- not just providing news but also ways to move forward toward a better future. My dream is that our government will be measured by a Well Being Index at least equal to GDP and all legislation would have to show how it improves the well being of All the People. See Dr. Martin Seligman's (father of positive psychology) theory of well being. Short video introduction: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-D2kDuP-5A More info: https://www.authentichappiness.sas.upenn.edu/learn
Here's a link about how to improve mainstream media:
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?tab=wm#inbox/FMfcgzGwHVStjrqpFdZsrXtRKLJrNTdD
I read 5-6 news or political info Substacks and follow that many podcasts. (Then I balance that out with Substacks and podcasts that have nothing to do with politics—just things I enjoy!) I'm finding less and less need to even turn on the television for news information. If it's "breaking," it will be in my Substacks and podcasts with balanced perspectives that help me understand the significance or screen out the noise.
The thing they can do is big stories that take a lot of manpower in terms of research. Sometimes those pieces are good and valuable, like the children working at dangerous and horrible jobs.
I have been reading the NYTimes since the 1950s - Really ! It is in my DNA now but like so many of you I see a deficiency of tone if not an outright rightward bias. They are bending over to be equal to all. But we are not equal in this case and certainly Biden and Trump are not equal. One should be a convicted criminal - not because he is a convicted sexual abuser but because he actually did attempt s coup to stay in power. We all watched it on TV ! That the judicial system bends over backwards to accommodate him makes me sick. So much for contempt of court ! The NYTimes needs to get a moral backbone and start hitting him with a 2 by 4. The extreme right dies not read the Times, has never and will never. So it should be energizing the people who know Trump has to be denied a second term but are overwhelmed or too fatalistic to believe we can win ! Again and Again !
I've cancelled my subscription. What we need to know, Robert will tell us and analyze it!
It helps my mood NOT to read their slanted version of the news!
I will prob end up canceling. I, too, rely a lot on substack for good analysis. But… reading the top comments is always interesting and enlightening. the majority of the commenters disagree vehemently with the article. I’m wondering how to amplify those voices?
Yeah I am questioning the amount of money I am sending them. I don't really want my money going towards polling and analysis of polling.
So how do we balance this? How do keep informed of all the news that’s being posted without enabling the biased crap that’s going around?
Tell it Cathy!
We meet on all the best 'Stacks....
ditto
me three!
The sleeping giant is awake, paying attention and will vote liberal. November 7 should provide proof.
I surely hope so, Frankom, and will be doing my part by voting tomorrow in Virgina; also, I volunteerd to be a poll "greeter" for the Democratic ticket!
I'm precinct captain, and our normal volunteers are unavailable for one reason or another. So I'll be setting up my tent and table and at our Shenandoah County firehouse from 6 am - 7pm. We're a red red red county, but by golly, Republicans are going to SEE that Democrats are here, too!
Go, Linda! We're red with purple overtones here in Loudoun County. I'll be promoting the idea of voting FOR democratic values, not against any one candidate.
My kids are 2 voting strong Dems in Loudoun Co. They never miss a primary or election. I'm hopeful Dems will show up.
Yay, Linda, for your two kids!
Good luck!
Oh, GOOD for you...and all of us! In Maine, tomorrow's "election" is for state-wide referendums and proposed constitutional amendments. Turnout might be low--hard to tell. No particular hot button issues to fire people up, although the CMP/Pine Tree Power question might have gotten a few folks hot under the collar.
regarding elections and turnout:
primaries and local elections are important and frankly have more impact on most people's daily lives.
I am NOT in favor of making everyone vote - I think a person should inform themselves of the issues and candidates, beyond what letter is behind the name on the ballot. Anyone unwilling or incapable of doing that, I am happy if they don't vote. (Caveat: I am doing my best to inform friends, neighbors and the general public of the issues, candidates, and lies in the attack ads. Thus informed, certainly i want to help them vote their interests!)
In my area, primaries not in presidential cycle years typically draw less than 25% of the registered voters. I take this as a personal challenge, that MY VOTE will have an even GREATER IMPACT.
(Flip side: primaries have led to the extremist candidates getting on the general ballot elections - how we ended up with the anti-government MAGA/Freedom Caucus lunatics instead of thinking people who can hear the public's concerns and negotiate across the aisle to actually do WORK!)
My state is almost a third-a third- a third
with Independents, then Democrats, then what is currently calling itself the GOP in that order,
and a few other parties sprinkled in after.
However, due to gerrymandering, the GOP has a supermajority in the State Legislature/ General Assembly.
We are also the state with major ties to all the awful voter suppression /coup enablers - including many of the co-conspirators in the January 6, 2021 insurrection.
Bottom line: I am adopting the slogan of many of the angry women responding to these attacks to take away OUR RIGHTS -
to decide about our bodies, our lives, and
who and when we will have a family with -
WHEN WE VOTE - WE WIN!
I agree completely with all that you have written. My comment was in the nature of things as they unfortunately are. Many people simply don't understand the importance of even the most minor of ballot initiatives and this year we actually have some important and complex questions on some issues that merit some serious consideration. I hope that people have educated themselves about the questions--I do my best to discuss those issues with friends and relatives. We'll see how it goes.
Yes, when we vote; we win.
I am sort of on nerve suppression about Virginia. Having spent 74 years in Virginia the election of Youngkin was an unwelcome event. The last two years in the deep blue of Charlotte NC has been refreshing. Looking at NC as a whole the Republican damage is more serious, ingrained and will be stubborn to remove.
I think it's a given that we will always be living on the edge. Our side needs to face that fact, push back wherever we can, and DON'T have a meltdown!
Thanks for being a voter, and PLEASE HELP US get out the vote in Charlotte/Mecklenburg and statewide.
Charlotte, Durham, Wake, the Triad and Asheville COULD determine the outcome of all the state races IF we can get turnout over 75-80%. A tall order, but worth setting the goal.
Prime example of the GOP continuing to gerrymander voting districts.
The reason Jeff Jackson has been mapped out of his Congressional seat
and will be running for the State Attorney General instead of reelection to the House of Representatives.
We donated. What can we do so
Late
C
GOTV is ongoing.
Keep meeting and talking to people, and as we listen to their concerns, strategically point out the GOP is only griping with no solutions, and for real change we need to overcome apathy and VOTE.
Once we SAVE our RIGHT TO VOTE, then they can decide what other policies are priorities for them - BUT IF THEY DO NOT VOTE in 2024, the extremists pretending to be Republicans will take away our right to vote at all.
Country over Party.
Democracy is really the only thing on the ballot in 2024.
Good luck tomorrow, Lynell!
Thanks, Kathleen!
The NYTs has been to the right for years. I stopped subbing nearly two years ago and will never give them money again.
Thanks for pointing out this thing that seems to be going on with the Times, Cathy. They seem to be bending over backwards to spin the really good news on the economy, jobs, infrastructure that is a result of the Biden administration’s hard work. I just don’t get it and am glad to know I am not the only one wondering what’s going on with them.
Thank you, Cathy! Always appreciate your insight and agree about the American People.
I couldn't agree more. The problem being that so many people believe the polls! We must get out there and spread the news of Biden's accomplishments. As Robert says, many of those people polled didn't know about Biden's accomplishments, but once they did, Biden's approval numbers went up! We have to shout them from the rooftops, and in one-on-one conversations with those who are reading the wrong news material or reading nothing! The path is clear; work is the answer!
Agree entirely!!!
Very insightful.
If you thought my above comment seemed to come from outer space, you’d be justified in thinking so.
I wrote it when there were only a couple of Comments. It was supposed to be attached to an early Comment by Cathy Learoyd. Somehow, Substack *detached* it from the Comment to which it was originally attached.
Please ignore that Comment, therefore.
I saw this on the news and all I could say was bull shit, a year out are you kidding. We can’t lay back and we we have to work even harder but the polls are pure unadulterated bullshit. All Democrats must get the message out and the GOP is incapable of governing. Thanks Robert!
The public is not aware of all the good things President Biden has done because the media focuses on his age, his opponent, more on his opponent, more on his age.
Plus, the Biden administration hasn't been very good at promoting his achievements. The Dems need to hire some very good PR people to design & run ads on all the popular networks (including Fox), letting people know about everything Pres. Biden has accomplished for Americans during his term.
Yes!
President Biden has accomplished tremendous things for America under extremely difficult circumstances. He's done amazing things to help grow this country from "the middle out and the bottom up." I'm so proud of him and so grateful for the improvements he's won for us.
There are many dedicated grass roots organizations that have worked hard to spread the word about Biden's accomplishments. But they can only cover so much ground in a country this large. President Biden has visited various towns and talked about his new programs, but that doesn't seem to cut through the noise in the national media for more than a few minutes. Vice President Harris and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg appearing in a few locations around the country and sitting for a couple interviews in a late night talk show are not enough.
So I still don't understand why the Democratic Party "apparatus" has not launched a simple, clear and powerful message telling Americans what our President has done for us and then devised a plan to blanket this country with that message for the next year.
Among other ideas, there are some high powered, excellent communicators in politics, entertainment and sports with charisma, good reputations and a large social media following who support President Biden and could spread the word very effectively. Or just a clever campaign from a great ad agency could do the trick.
I have yet to hear a rational reason why the Democratic Party has not already started this kind of extensive, effective national messaging. It's not rocket science. It's desperately needed in this existential crisis. The failure to create and launch a winning messaging strategy when so many Americans don't seem to know the great things President Biden has done for us feels like political malpractice.
I'd really like to know why this is not happening.
I think part of the problem is overcommunication of fundraising requests. My email is inundated with requests from all over the country. Most offer a little substance, and then a big ask. Perhaps focusing on delivering a thoughtful message would be better than making the message about fundraising.
OMG! I am really tired of the CONTINUOUS texts ‘begging’ and pleading for money! It just seems sad and desperate.
Yes, it is far too much and I don't have the time to unsubscribe to the majority of them. And, definitely no substance about the candidate! I did send one candidate a donation because they were substantive and only had one small donate button at the bottom.
Amen, amen, amen brother
I agree!
CC, agree with you 100%. I'd really like to know as well. I appreciate your ability to boil it down and then offer a sensible solution.
There must be more than a few people in the White House monitoring Robert on Substack, and here's hoping someone reads your comment as well. Barring that, maybe you could write your comment as a letter and send it to WH Communications or the Biden Campaign, or the DCC....
Thank you, Gus. : )
Whatever the reasoning is behind the lack of effective advertising by the Democratic Party, they are not interested in sharing that with the rest of us.
I only heard one attempted explanation many months ago by Cornell Belcher on MSNBC. The jist of it was that Democrats he'd spoken with (and I don't remember if it was in one part of the country or nationwide) weren't comfortable with a big advertising campaign. His comment gave the impression that those Democrats thought it was too unseemly or something to that effect. That didn't make any sense to me then and it still doesn't now.
I emailed President Biden about it once or twice. I know the most I can expect from that is to get a check mark by a White House intern under some subject heading included in a list of topics contained in comments sent to the President.
I'm hoping we see more effective messaging about the president's accomplishments soon...maybe some time in January, 2024 after the upcoming holidays and after this initial jumble of news stories about Trump's outrageous and shameful lawsuits. I wouldn't place any bets on this subject, but I haven't given up hope.
Hi CC-
I have felt this way about messaging for quite some time- I attended a zoom over the weekend by the DNC about this and it was great -
https://email.mg.mobilize.us/c/eJw0yT1u7SAQQOHVQImGHwNTULjxNp64MLbRM8YCkihZfXSLdEfny2GPBkzmFKRFBERnkZ-BKNnkXt6iR2O0x7hDRB_3_S028RIUKC0lGKkAFQqbYYkARkeZJLmFGaiHqO1VrvJD4mPwK5xzPoPplamNqY0-6Z5DZKot9TiHaP3420xti9fOaaY23sP_kU4qN_Uab2bgqLFcIrXKZ6B3_5vfDzG9aj7DV-tXZnp9esu_AQAA__8VUkRW
No idea if this link will work cause here’s the issue- not great with tech and not on social media! - But the DNC has Reach Your People GOTV Share Bank - which has you join a bank of messages you can send to people you know / or don’t ! So I am working toward be a “messaging warrior” as Simon Rosenberg has promoted- WE can all help get this messaging out too. It was on mobilize if the link does not work.
I realize your are talking about reaching larger audiences but we can start small too...
Worked for me, KC.
Great message, KC!
The Biden Administration is results focused and believes the coverage of the Trump trials will impact voters as they continue to deliver. The continued misfiring in the House and more convictions and admissions all contribute to building momentum. The election is a year away and a lot will happen that will influence voters.
If they don't start soon with better messaging, then the NY Times lopsided polls and other s like theirs will fill the vacuum. It's hard to be patient!
I agree CC, it's exasperating to see nothing coming from the Biden administration to outline all that he has achieved. I can't remember who, but I recently heard someone from the Biden administration saying that all the good that Biden has done will be coming soon in messaging.
I actually think anything noted to the American people right now could be a waste of time. Too many people have memories that are much too short, and the facts will have vanished from their brains a year from now. Especially now with the heavy focus on Israel and Hamas. The daily display of antisemitism versus Islamophobia in this country is sickening. The Oct 7th attack on Israeli's was a "complete surprise"? I don't think so. I think Netanyahu was well aware and this war was his goal to put him in position of "hero". It also quite obviously has the ability to undermine Biden's leadership here. Putin did that in 2016 and it's Netanyahu's turn for 2024. They want a corruption back in our White House, just like they have for leadership in their countries.
There's also current competition in the MSM with Inmate P01135809's many indictments. "Never interfere with an enemy while he's in the process of destroying himself. " Let TFG have the spotlight with all the news he presents daily. We'll hopefully turn the corner on this soon where we can start hearing the many accomplishments of the current presidency., and start moving forward again.
Actually, we in Pennsylvania see positive Biden ads on television all the time, pointing out his many accomplishments. Why have they not risen above the noise?
Timing is critical along with money. It will happen after the first of the year. The Trump trials will help and will be part of the messaging.
I wonder whether the Trump trials will make a huge difference.
I can think of two historical examples, where the gubernatorial candidate was elected while in jail (LA and MA).
I agree! So far, the Biden re-election team does not seem energized. However we are ow within a year of the election. Hopefully, they will be more aggressive now.
Robert, thank you again for talking people off the ledge. I saw this headline and skipped right over it. Then, this morning, Jay Kuo’s newsletter arrived, including details on why it would be unlikely for Trump to win this next election. Nothing is completely predictable, but I want to share this link because I think it will make a whole lot of sense to everyone.
https://open.substack.com/pub/statuskuo/p/one-year-out-from-election-2024?r=2vk1c6&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
Thanks for sharing that link. I wasn’t familiar with Jay Kuo, but subscribed after reading his newsletter.
You’re welcome, Jay is an attorney who writes a mostly daily newsletter similar to what Joyce Vance puts out. He follows these Trump trials and does a legal analysis for non-lawyers. And he writes “opinion” pieces like this one, based on trends that he sees. He also contributes to George Takei’s newsletter called “The Big Picture.” As an added bonus, he’s got a great sense of humor.
Terrific. Subscribed and he’s now coming to my inbox.
Becky--you’ll be glad you did! Jay uses a wonderful mix of compassion, legal smarts and humor in his posts.
I agree!
Thanks for sharing and it’s interesting that Nate Silver never gives you the reasoning as identified in this article as a counterbalance to the poll. This article needs to be distribute
You’re welcome. I described Jay’s newsletters above under Becky’s comment.
He's awful and moreover a class-A misogynist
Medhi Hassan began his show on MSNBC tonight with this exact doomsday click-bait. I like Medhi for his straight forward approach and was especially disappointed to hear him parroting the story. Good job training viewers to “click.” Turned it off after less than one minute. Cable news viewing steadily decreasing. Substack reads steadily increasing. Appreciate your focusing on this baloney again. Please don’t stop.
That's literally his job. Shut off of the TV news and write postcards to voters, door knock (if it's safe where you live), make calls, etc. Nothing good is on the TV news.
In the 2020 election my wife and I responded to the proliferation of local Trump signs with signs of our own, since the local Democratic machine seemed stuck in low gear. We made about 30 signs with assorted sayings and shared them with friends. Today's article puts me in mind of doing something similar- maybe buttons: "Thanks for the bridges, Joe" Or "Cheaper drugs? I'll take Biden" Feel free to suggest other pithy button slogans that give credit where credit is due.
Here in Maine, the infrastructure money has gotten hundreds of substandard culverts and bridges repaired and/or rebuilt, to be ready for more of the "once in a century" rain events that are delivering floods on a yearly basis; rebuilt roads and more newly tarred roads in rural Maine than I have seen since the 60's.
So here is my button or bumper sticker suggestion: 'Safer Bridges and Smoother "Ridin' with Biden"'.
It's a bit trite but up here, the heavy logging trucks, the Poland Spring water trucks and freeze/thaw cycle of winter weather pounds the heck out of our roads. Having so many of the country roads freshly tarred is wonderful and not just for cars but for us road cyclists, too.
That's a great idea! My home is on a corner, facing a state highway (with speed limit of 30 mph because it is mere blocks from the downtown) and with City Hall adjacent. I freely offer my fence to great candidates for their signs. But I saw one just yesterday that I really liked; it said simply JUST VOTE.
Great idea, Michael!
Good idea--just clarify "Cheaper PRESCRIPTION drugs!" LOL
I suspect that a big reason why the Biden Administration’s good deeds haven’t resonated is that they have been largely directed to *red states*. Biden makes a big point of rebuilding rural areas – but guess what the politics of such areas has been (it’s not Democratic).
It may be “the right thing to do”. But it may be stupid politics.
Not in purple states like Maine! We rural Dems appareciate the hell out of safer bridges and smoother roads!
That’s a great idea! I’m going to share it with fellow activists.
Robert,
Here are some thoughts to calm and encourage your readers, who are my online colleagues.
1. Consider courage, which is rising to the moment in the face of fear.
2. Right-size your anxieties. Most of us have it easy compared to people in war zones or facing serious illness, loss or hardship. And if your troubles are that bad, you're probably not reading this.
3. We don't really know how the next election will turn out. There are reasons for optimism and pessimism, depending on your attitude and the quality of your information. You and Michael Podhorzer cover that well. If you're too pessimistic you won't see your opportunities.
4. Truth is more powerful than lies. Take confidence in what you do know. Trump lost. What he and his MAGA imitators want is dumb and wrong. We can do better.
5. Take care of yourself and your loved ones so you can continue the good fight.
I'm sure I could come up with more, but instead, I'll challenge other readers to add to this list.
I was upset by this latest NY Times/Siena poll, as much because they're promoting it with obvious flaws as because of its dire predictions. Here's my take just for starters. If they're counting people who pick up the phone to answer an unknown caller, the poll is already biased. Most of us are too wary of scammers to answer such calls. Some who answer may be less than truthful in order to slant the results. For more, here's, a link to Michael Podhorzer's very readable refutation of this latest example of journalistic malpractice. Thank you for introducing us to Podhorzer:
https://www.weekendreading.net/p/mad-poll-disease-redux?r=dpmrd&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Thanks for the link to Podhorzer. I highly recommend his article.
I love how he calls this phenomenon “mad poll disease.”
I am going to come at this from a slightly different angle. First, I love polls. I am wired in my brain to want to predict the future. You should see my spreadsheets on baseball statistics. When I worked in Congressional campaigns in the eighties, I gravitated to the data people on the campaigns. I was a part-time paid staffer on two of those and unpaid but just as involved on a third. Polling is useful, even today, for campaigns, but for the general public, not so much, particularly when the election is one year out.
The other thing to remember is that while the media uses polling like a bludgeon, campaigns use it like a scalpel. They identify broad areas of concern and use the data to direct money to address the weaknesses. The politicians themselves don't always have a lot to do with these processes, so when you see things like “Democrats privately panicked at recent polling,” it’s because they are. They're human like us and react or overreact the same as we all do. The people they pay to analyze the data take a more measured approach.
Look, I panicked when I saw the NYT poll yesterday. They were scary numbers, but to the extent that some of them are real, but they are also opportunities. Take Michigan; I do think that the Arab population there is deeply disillusioned with Biden, and there’s a lot of work to be done there in the next year. Michigan Democrats are sounding those alarms to the administration. Is it logical to believe nothing will be done about it from both policy and messaging perspectives? Of course not.
Today’s major polling is broken. It’s inexact and then hyperbolized by the media. It's what they do because their chief concern is the bottom line. I do chafe at advice to “ignore the polls” because I would say to look closer at them because they might not say what you think they do. That said in the context of anxiety or panic, ignore the shit out of them. More to the point, ignore the media. In baseball analytics there's a saying that baseball is a math problem until pesky humans get in the way. Well guess what? A lot of humans are going to disrupt these numbers in the next year. Take deep breaths and do your part. Of course, Trump can be defeated but only action will decide that.
Good advice, I looked at the NY Times poll as a guideline for improvement opportunities, not a forecast of outcomes. Many unforeseen things will happen over this next year. Keep pressing forward
I have a question for you, given your expertise and also factoring in a comment above about the WH communications team living in a "bubble": will that bubble burst when polls like this NYT poll make headlines? Do they actually do the deep dive when they see numbers like this or do THEY ignore the polls? I don't know how these things work - how, or if they interact with each other - the numbers and the kool-aid. I would put my money on the fact that the Biden WH seems to have a deep bench of seasoned thinkers who might panic just for a moment, but who might have the skills to figure out how to wield that scalpel you describe.
It’s been a long time but I assume it's the same, yes they're aware of every poll but they don't get too nervous unless internal polling agrees with the external. Even if it's just in one area or group. If they're seeing an erosion of African American men in an external poll they’ll square it with their own. If there's any overlap they’ll recommend strategy to solve it. Things like that.
I find the NYT reprehensible. Instead of informing readers on Biden's accomplishments, and other press too, they just beat up on his age. If he were Black and they were beating up on his race then people would be up in arms, but no, because it is age, that is an acceptable prejudice. Well, the AARP should be invited to spread the news of Biden's accomplishments and any other organizations that stand for the rights of older people. Jane Fonda comes to mind, and several actresses and actors who have embraced their aging and activism. The Democratic National Committee should be reaching out to them to spread the message. https://www.goodgoodgood.co/articles/celebrity-activists
Polls are one thing. Elections are something else. We will have a better sense after the November 7 elections, but so far in 2023, Democrats have been winning election after election. In a way, even more important, Democrats have been performing better in elections than they have in the past. Consider this ABC news article from September https://abcnews.go.com/538/democrats-winning-big-special-elections/story?id=103315703
It is November 8. Again, Democrats have had a good election. Keeping the governorship in Kentucky, regaining control of the Virginia legislature, and passing the Ohio constitutional amendment that will protect abortion in that state.
It is a scourge that we will live with for the next year, so occasional reminders that the only poll that matters will occur on November 5, 2024, is in order.
I so agree.
Long ago, ie pre-2016, I used to say to my husband about the constant chatter 2-3 weeks leading up to the Super Bowl every year, “Geez, why don’t they just play the game? Then they will know who wins”.
Ever since the Great Polling Debacle of 2016 I have learned to ignore polls. And I urge everyone else to do the same.
There are lies, damn lies, statistics, and then there are polls.
With apologies to Samuel Clemens.
Biden/Harris have earned my vote. Period. I will vote blue up and down the ballot in 2024 and every year after for as long as I live.
Love Mark Twain! Thanks for that!
Thanks Robert. You put my thinking on this into words.