Just want to share a DNC virtual training-Reach Your People GOTV Share Bank- on mobilize. Especially for folks who have social media accounts (facebook, instagram, etc) they link you to easy to copy messaging. Simon Rosenberg encourages all of us to be “messaging warriors’and I am starting there! I am trying to get better at tech and join social media to do this and the training was great. I will try and attach the link but 🤞🤷♀️.
Personally I think the NY Times has taken a hard turn to the right. It certainly is doing its best to choose headlines that give a less than favorable impression of the Biden administration. For example, two days ago the headline for the October favorable jobs report was: Job Growth Slows, Sowing a Mix of Concern and Calm
I don't trust polling any more especially after how obvious it was to me that the red wave wasn't going to happen because of the anger over Dobbs that isn't going away for a long, long time. Although I won't be complacent it would shock me if DT wins the presidency or even comes close. The American People are smarter than that! We, the People, all of us this time!
I saw this on the news and all I could say was bull shit, a year out are you kidding. We can’t lay back and we we have to work even harder but the polls are pure unadulterated bullshit. All Democrats must get the message out and the GOP is incapable of governing. Thanks Robert!
The public is not aware of all the good things President Biden has done because the media focuses on his age, his opponent, more on his opponent, more on his age.
Nov 6, 2023·edited Nov 6, 2023Liked by Robert B. Hubbell
President Biden has accomplished tremendous things for America under extremely difficult circumstances. He's done amazing things to help grow this country from "the middle out and the bottom up." I'm so proud of him and so grateful for the improvements he's won for us.
There are many dedicated grass roots organizations that have worked hard to spread the word about Biden's accomplishments. But they can only cover so much ground in a country this large. President Biden has visited various towns and talked about his new programs, but that doesn't seem to cut through the noise in the national media for more than a few minutes. Vice President Harris and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg appearing in a few locations around the country and sitting for a couple interviews in a late night talk show are not enough.
So I still don't understand why the Democratic Party "apparatus" has not launched a simple, clear and powerful message telling Americans what our President has done for us and then devised a plan to blanket this country with that message for the next year.
Among other ideas, there are some high powered, excellent communicators in politics, entertainment and sports with charisma, good reputations and a large social media following who support President Biden and could spread the word very effectively. Or just a clever campaign from a great ad agency could do the trick.
I have yet to hear a rational reason why the Democratic Party has not already started this kind of extensive, effective national messaging. It's not rocket science. It's desperately needed in this existential crisis. The failure to create and launch a winning messaging strategy when so many Americans don't seem to know the great things President Biden has done for us feels like political malpractice.
I'd really like to know why this is not happening.
Robert, thank you again for talking people off the ledge. I saw this headline and skipped right over it. Then, this morning, Jay Kuo’s newsletter arrived, including details on why it would be unlikely for Trump to win this next election. Nothing is completely predictable, but I want to share this link because I think it will make a whole lot of sense to everyone.
Medhi Hassan began his show on MSNBC tonight with this exact doomsday click-bait. I like Medhi for his straight forward approach and was especially disappointed to hear him parroting the story. Good job training viewers to “click.” Turned it off after less than one minute. Cable news viewing steadily decreasing. Substack reads steadily increasing. Appreciate your focusing on this baloney again. Please don’t stop.
In the 2020 election my wife and I responded to the proliferation of local Trump signs with signs of our own, since the local Democratic machine seemed stuck in low gear. We made about 30 signs with assorted sayings and shared them with friends. Today's article puts me in mind of doing something similar- maybe buttons: "Thanks for the bridges, Joe" Or "Cheaper drugs? I'll take Biden" Feel free to suggest other pithy button slogans that give credit where credit is due.
Nov 6, 2023·edited Nov 6, 2023Liked by Robert B. Hubbell
Robert,
Here are some thoughts to calm and encourage your readers, who are my online colleagues.
1. Consider courage, which is rising to the moment in the face of fear.
2. Right-size your anxieties. Most of us have it easy compared to people in war zones or facing serious illness, loss or hardship. And if your troubles are that bad, you're probably not reading this.
3. We don't really know how the next election will turn out. There are reasons for optimism and pessimism, depending on your attitude and the quality of your information. You and Michael Podhorzer cover that well. If you're too pessimistic you won't see your opportunities.
4. Truth is more powerful than lies. Take confidence in what you do know. Trump lost. What he and his MAGA imitators want is dumb and wrong. We can do better.
5. Take care of yourself and your loved ones so you can continue the good fight.
I'm sure I could come up with more, but instead, I'll challenge other readers to add to this list.
I was upset by this latest NY Times/Siena poll, as much because they're promoting it with obvious flaws as because of its dire predictions. Here's my take just for starters. If they're counting people who pick up the phone to answer an unknown caller, the poll is already biased. Most of us are too wary of scammers to answer such calls. Some who answer may be less than truthful in order to slant the results. For more, here's, a link to Michael Podhorzer's very readable refutation of this latest example of journalistic malpractice. Thank you for introducing us to Podhorzer:
I am going to come at this from a slightly different angle. First, I love polls. I am wired in my brain to want to predict the future. You should see my spreadsheets on baseball statistics. When I worked in Congressional campaigns in the eighties, I gravitated to the data people on the campaigns. I was a part-time paid staffer on two of those and unpaid but just as involved on a third. Polling is useful, even today, for campaigns, but for the general public, not so much, particularly when the election is one year out.
The other thing to remember is that while the media uses polling like a bludgeon, campaigns use it like a scalpel. They identify broad areas of concern and use the data to direct money to address the weaknesses. The politicians themselves don't always have a lot to do with these processes, so when you see things like “Democrats privately panicked at recent polling,” it’s because they are. They're human like us and react or overreact the same as we all do. The people they pay to analyze the data take a more measured approach.
Look, I panicked when I saw the NYT poll yesterday. They were scary numbers, but to the extent that some of them are real, but they are also opportunities. Take Michigan; I do think that the Arab population there is deeply disillusioned with Biden, and there’s a lot of work to be done there in the next year. Michigan Democrats are sounding those alarms to the administration. Is it logical to believe nothing will be done about it from both policy and messaging perspectives? Of course not.
Today’s major polling is broken. It’s inexact and then hyperbolized by the media. It's what they do because their chief concern is the bottom line. I do chafe at advice to “ignore the polls” because I would say to look closer at them because they might not say what you think they do. That said in the context of anxiety or panic, ignore the shit out of them. More to the point, ignore the media. In baseball analytics there's a saying that baseball is a math problem until pesky humans get in the way. Well guess what? A lot of humans are going to disrupt these numbers in the next year. Take deep breaths and do your part. Of course, Trump can be defeated but only action will decide that.
I find the NYT reprehensible. Instead of informing readers on Biden's accomplishments, and other press too, they just beat up on his age. If he were Black and they were beating up on his race then people would be up in arms, but no, because it is age, that is an acceptable prejudice. Well, the AARP should be invited to spread the news of Biden's accomplishments and any other organizations that stand for the rights of older people. Jane Fonda comes to mind, and several actresses and actors who have embraced their aging and activism. The Democratic National Committee should be reaching out to them to spread the message. https://www.goodgoodgood.co/articles/celebrity-activists
Polls are one thing. Elections are something else. We will have a better sense after the November 7 elections, but so far in 2023, Democrats have been winning election after election. In a way, even more important, Democrats have been performing better in elections than they have in the past. Consider this ABC news article from September https://abcnews.go.com/538/democrats-winning-big-special-elections/story?id=103315703
It is a scourge that we will live with for the next year, so occasional reminders that the only poll that matters will occur on November 5, 2024, is in order.
I so agree.
Long ago, ie pre-2016, I used to say to my husband about the constant chatter 2-3 weeks leading up to the Super Bowl every year, “Geez, why don’t they just play the game? Then they will know who wins”.
Ever since the Great Polling Debacle of 2016 I have learned to ignore polls. And I urge everyone else to do the same.
There are lies, damn lies, statistics, and then there are polls.
With apologies to Samuel Clemens.
Biden/Harris have earned my vote. Period. I will vote blue up and down the ballot in 2024 and every year after for as long as I live.
To help back yourselves off of the ledge I also recommend Mike Podhorzer’s new post: https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelpodhorzer/p/mad-poll-disease-redux?r=160ms&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
Just want to share a DNC virtual training-Reach Your People GOTV Share Bank- on mobilize. Especially for folks who have social media accounts (facebook, instagram, etc) they link you to easy to copy messaging. Simon Rosenberg encourages all of us to be “messaging warriors’and I am starting there! I am trying to get better at tech and join social media to do this and the training was great. I will try and attach the link but 🤞🤷♀️.
https://email.mg.mobilize.us/c/eJxMybFuwyAQgOGngdE6jgOH4QYvHjp3ryicY1QTLExVtU9fZcvwS7_0Zd4iAWUtbHwIEMLsg94ZnZshOkS_pVtKEqK9gcdNMDki2XRhBLTGABmEgGHyGVwEIBtNMjI7RVDvU22f5Sh_Mn1f-uB9jPNSdlG4KlxfTOH67J2k-Tfd-etKu5SH9BofiuBeYzmm1KoeLM__GL-nKLtYPfin9SMru5y95f8AAAD__4JbPmo
Your consistent positive attitude and commitment to positive action is a lighthouse. Keep on shining!
Personally I think the NY Times has taken a hard turn to the right. It certainly is doing its best to choose headlines that give a less than favorable impression of the Biden administration. For example, two days ago the headline for the October favorable jobs report was: Job Growth Slows, Sowing a Mix of Concern and Calm
I don't trust polling any more especially after how obvious it was to me that the red wave wasn't going to happen because of the anger over Dobbs that isn't going away for a long, long time. Although I won't be complacent it would shock me if DT wins the presidency or even comes close. The American People are smarter than that! We, the People, all of us this time!
I saw this on the news and all I could say was bull shit, a year out are you kidding. We can’t lay back and we we have to work even harder but the polls are pure unadulterated bullshit. All Democrats must get the message out and the GOP is incapable of governing. Thanks Robert!
The public is not aware of all the good things President Biden has done because the media focuses on his age, his opponent, more on his opponent, more on his age.
President Biden has accomplished tremendous things for America under extremely difficult circumstances. He's done amazing things to help grow this country from "the middle out and the bottom up." I'm so proud of him and so grateful for the improvements he's won for us.
There are many dedicated grass roots organizations that have worked hard to spread the word about Biden's accomplishments. But they can only cover so much ground in a country this large. President Biden has visited various towns and talked about his new programs, but that doesn't seem to cut through the noise in the national media for more than a few minutes. Vice President Harris and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg appearing in a few locations around the country and sitting for a couple interviews in a late night talk show are not enough.
So I still don't understand why the Democratic Party "apparatus" has not launched a simple, clear and powerful message telling Americans what our President has done for us and then devised a plan to blanket this country with that message for the next year.
Among other ideas, there are some high powered, excellent communicators in politics, entertainment and sports with charisma, good reputations and a large social media following who support President Biden and could spread the word very effectively. Or just a clever campaign from a great ad agency could do the trick.
I have yet to hear a rational reason why the Democratic Party has not already started this kind of extensive, effective national messaging. It's not rocket science. It's desperately needed in this existential crisis. The failure to create and launch a winning messaging strategy when so many Americans don't seem to know the great things President Biden has done for us feels like political malpractice.
I'd really like to know why this is not happening.
Robert, thank you again for talking people off the ledge. I saw this headline and skipped right over it. Then, this morning, Jay Kuo’s newsletter arrived, including details on why it would be unlikely for Trump to win this next election. Nothing is completely predictable, but I want to share this link because I think it will make a whole lot of sense to everyone.
https://open.substack.com/pub/statuskuo/p/one-year-out-from-election-2024?r=2vk1c6&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
Medhi Hassan began his show on MSNBC tonight with this exact doomsday click-bait. I like Medhi for his straight forward approach and was especially disappointed to hear him parroting the story. Good job training viewers to “click.” Turned it off after less than one minute. Cable news viewing steadily decreasing. Substack reads steadily increasing. Appreciate your focusing on this baloney again. Please don’t stop.
In the 2020 election my wife and I responded to the proliferation of local Trump signs with signs of our own, since the local Democratic machine seemed stuck in low gear. We made about 30 signs with assorted sayings and shared them with friends. Today's article puts me in mind of doing something similar- maybe buttons: "Thanks for the bridges, Joe" Or "Cheaper drugs? I'll take Biden" Feel free to suggest other pithy button slogans that give credit where credit is due.
Robert,
Here are some thoughts to calm and encourage your readers, who are my online colleagues.
1. Consider courage, which is rising to the moment in the face of fear.
2. Right-size your anxieties. Most of us have it easy compared to people in war zones or facing serious illness, loss or hardship. And if your troubles are that bad, you're probably not reading this.
3. We don't really know how the next election will turn out. There are reasons for optimism and pessimism, depending on your attitude and the quality of your information. You and Michael Podhorzer cover that well. If you're too pessimistic you won't see your opportunities.
4. Truth is more powerful than lies. Take confidence in what you do know. Trump lost. What he and his MAGA imitators want is dumb and wrong. We can do better.
5. Take care of yourself and your loved ones so you can continue the good fight.
I'm sure I could come up with more, but instead, I'll challenge other readers to add to this list.
I was upset by this latest NY Times/Siena poll, as much because they're promoting it with obvious flaws as because of its dire predictions. Here's my take just for starters. If they're counting people who pick up the phone to answer an unknown caller, the poll is already biased. Most of us are too wary of scammers to answer such calls. Some who answer may be less than truthful in order to slant the results. For more, here's, a link to Michael Podhorzer's very readable refutation of this latest example of journalistic malpractice. Thank you for introducing us to Podhorzer:
https://www.weekendreading.net/p/mad-poll-disease-redux?r=dpmrd&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
I am going to come at this from a slightly different angle. First, I love polls. I am wired in my brain to want to predict the future. You should see my spreadsheets on baseball statistics. When I worked in Congressional campaigns in the eighties, I gravitated to the data people on the campaigns. I was a part-time paid staffer on two of those and unpaid but just as involved on a third. Polling is useful, even today, for campaigns, but for the general public, not so much, particularly when the election is one year out.
The other thing to remember is that while the media uses polling like a bludgeon, campaigns use it like a scalpel. They identify broad areas of concern and use the data to direct money to address the weaknesses. The politicians themselves don't always have a lot to do with these processes, so when you see things like “Democrats privately panicked at recent polling,” it’s because they are. They're human like us and react or overreact the same as we all do. The people they pay to analyze the data take a more measured approach.
Look, I panicked when I saw the NYT poll yesterday. They were scary numbers, but to the extent that some of them are real, but they are also opportunities. Take Michigan; I do think that the Arab population there is deeply disillusioned with Biden, and there’s a lot of work to be done there in the next year. Michigan Democrats are sounding those alarms to the administration. Is it logical to believe nothing will be done about it from both policy and messaging perspectives? Of course not.
Today’s major polling is broken. It’s inexact and then hyperbolized by the media. It's what they do because their chief concern is the bottom line. I do chafe at advice to “ignore the polls” because I would say to look closer at them because they might not say what you think they do. That said in the context of anxiety or panic, ignore the shit out of them. More to the point, ignore the media. In baseball analytics there's a saying that baseball is a math problem until pesky humans get in the way. Well guess what? A lot of humans are going to disrupt these numbers in the next year. Take deep breaths and do your part. Of course, Trump can be defeated but only action will decide that.
I find the NYT reprehensible. Instead of informing readers on Biden's accomplishments, and other press too, they just beat up on his age. If he were Black and they were beating up on his race then people would be up in arms, but no, because it is age, that is an acceptable prejudice. Well, the AARP should be invited to spread the news of Biden's accomplishments and any other organizations that stand for the rights of older people. Jane Fonda comes to mind, and several actresses and actors who have embraced their aging and activism. The Democratic National Committee should be reaching out to them to spread the message. https://www.goodgoodgood.co/articles/celebrity-activists
Polls are one thing. Elections are something else. We will have a better sense after the November 7 elections, but so far in 2023, Democrats have been winning election after election. In a way, even more important, Democrats have been performing better in elections than they have in the past. Consider this ABC news article from September https://abcnews.go.com/538/democrats-winning-big-special-elections/story?id=103315703
It is a scourge that we will live with for the next year, so occasional reminders that the only poll that matters will occur on November 5, 2024, is in order.
I so agree.
Long ago, ie pre-2016, I used to say to my husband about the constant chatter 2-3 weeks leading up to the Super Bowl every year, “Geez, why don’t they just play the game? Then they will know who wins”.
Ever since the Great Polling Debacle of 2016 I have learned to ignore polls. And I urge everyone else to do the same.
There are lies, damn lies, statistics, and then there are polls.
With apologies to Samuel Clemens.
Biden/Harris have earned my vote. Period. I will vote blue up and down the ballot in 2024 and every year after for as long as I live.
Thanks Robert. You put my thinking on this into words.