On an eventful day, less is more

March 23, 2024

Friday was packed with a dozen significant developments, each of which deserves extended discussion. But when the news comes at us from every direction with high velocity, less is more. So, I will give an overview and attempt to tease out a few threads to help place the stories in context. Readers can discuss the stories at their leisure in the Comments section—or spend their time outside, enjoying the early days of spring!

It is worth noting that as I begin to write on Friday at 7:30 p.m., the Senate has only 90 minutes to pass a budget that will avoid a government shutdown. Prospects for passage do not look promising. The repeated crises are an insult to the American people. We deserve better. Much.  [Update: The Senate passed the bill after the midnight deadline.]

But before turning to the details of the latest GOP meltdown, it is worth noting that the chaos in the Republican Party is not only unprecedented, it will never be repeated in the history of our nation. If the Democratic Party experienced a similar meltdown, the story would be the subject of non-stop, breathless, front-page coverage for weeks. The press would declare the death of the Democratic Party and begin a political autopsy that would drag on for months.

Today, the GOP’s Hindenburg-style implosion was “below the fold” news in most outlets. Don’t let the media’s lack of interest fool you. It is a big deal. It will likely help Democrats increase their ability to protect the integrity of the 2024 election, which in turn will help preserve democracy in 2025 and beyond.

As explained below, the chances that Democrats will control the House on January 6, 2025, increased on Friday. Ensuring control of even one chamber of Congress during the count of electoral ballots in January will allow Democrats to defeat baseless objections designed to frustrate the will of the people.

In short, despite the chaos, Americans should feel renewed confidence. The Republican party has been a dagger aimed at the heart of democracy. On Friday, the GOP appeared to be on the verge of losing control of the House because its members keep quitting.

With that, let’s look at the leading stories on Friday.

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Congress struggles to avoid a shutdown—House GOP turns on itself.

Events in Congress proceeded at a rapid-fire pace on Friday—of necessity. With only hours before a government shutdown, the House passed a $1.7 trillion bill over the objections of a majority of the GOP caucus.

As on two prior occasions, Speaker Johnson was forced to rely on majority Democratic support to pass a spending bill that will keep the government operating.

Speaker Johnson’s reliance on Democrats to pass a bill that was anathema to the “Freedom” Caucus quickly led to a new crisis for Speaker Johnson.

First, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene announced that she had filed a motion to “vacate the chair”—i.e., fire Mike Johnson as Speaker. See The Hill, Greene files motion to oust Speaker Johnson. Despite announcing the motion, Greene has not taken the steps to trigger the 48-hour period for a vote. But Greene was unequivocal that she intended to remove Johnson, saying,

[T]his is basically a warning, and it’s time for us to go through the process, take our time, and find a new Speaker of the House that will stand with Republicans in our Republican majority instead of standing with the Democrats.

However, it is not clear that the motion to vacate will succeed in removing Johnson. See The Hill, Republicans lash out at Greene over threat to oust Speaker Johnson.

But the next shoe to drop on Friday raises the question of whether Mike Johnson—or any Republican—will be elected the next Speaker of the House. GOP Rep. Mike Gallagher unexpectedly announced that he would resign his seat on April 19—leaving Republicans with a single-vote margin in the House after that date. See Politico, Johnson's margin drops to one vote as Gallagher heads for early exit.

There are indications that another GOP member of the House will resign soon—leaving Johnson in a situation in which a single defection results in a tie vote in the House. See Newsweek, Ken Buck Teases More Republican Resignations Are Coming. A tie means that nothing can happen in the House without Democratic cooperation. If another Republican resigns—a possibility hinted at by Ken Buck—then Republicans and Democrats would share power in the House.

The unwinding of the House majority is happening before the November elections, during which Democrats are likely to pick up a few seats in districts won by Joe Biden in 2020. That would give Democrats control of the House—and a hedge against baseless objections to the 2024 electoral count.

The drama is not over for House Republicans, but the handwriting is on the wall. Meanwhile, Democrats are holding together despite strong policy differences on several issues. The difference is that Democrats are disagreeing over which policies are in the best interests of the American people, while Republicans are arguing over power and greed.

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Trump's legal and money problems get worse.

Trump pleaded poverty to a NY appellate court on Wednesday, arguing that he didn’t have the money to obtain a bond to prevent collection on the half-billion-dollar civil fraud judgment. On Friday, Trump posted a statement on Truth Social claiming that he did, in fact, have $500 million to obtain a bond. See AP, Trump says he has nearly $500 million in cash but doesn't want to use it to pay New York judgment.

It doesn’t matter whether Trump is lying about having a half billion dollars in cash. By claiming he does, the New York appellate court is unlikely to grant Trump relief from posting the bond. NY AG Letitia James can begin executing the judgment at the close of business on Monday.

There is a point to this development beyond Trump undermining his legal defense. It is another illustration of Trump's inability to control his rage when his ego is involved. And his ego will be on the line again and again through November—both because of his legal jeopardy and his faltering performance on the campaign trail.

It appears that Democrats are paying close attention to Trump's descent into madness and rage. Biden’s stump speech now has a section mocking Trump's claim that he is broke, which is likely to provoke Trump into making more unforced errors.

One potential wildcard for Trump is his ability to pull money out of a security offering by Truth Social’s new parent company.

While Trump may eventually be able to sell some securities in the parent company and generate cash, that is a complicated and uncertain process. Jay Kuo does a nice job of explaining the mechanics of such a sale. More importantly, Kuo points out the potential for corruption and foreign manipulation of a president whose finances are tied to a stock that has no inherent value. See Jay Kuo on Substack, Status Kuo, The Publicly-Traded Presidential Candidate.

However, the public offering of Truth Social stock will likely be a curse for Trump. Being a controlling person in a public company is no picnic. Trump will be subject to a regulatory scheme and disclosures that do not apply to private citizens. Trump hates scrutiny of his finances. It makes it more difficult for him to lie.

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Terrorist attack near Moscow.

A music venue near Moscow was hit by a terrorist attack late Friday. A terrorist group known as ISIS-K took responsibility for the attack that killed forty and wounded hundreds. See NYTimes, U.S. Says ISIS Was Responsible for Deadly Moscow Concert Hall Attack.

The US issued both public and private warnings to Russia that an attack was imminent—warnings that Putin dismissed as “blackmail.” See Business Insider, Putin Dismissed US Warnings Days Before Moscow Concert Hall Attack.

The terror attack is horrible. It resulted in death and injury. But it highlights a weakness in Russian intelligence that undermines its image as an all-powerful agent able to work its will. We should assume that the US has a similar intelligence advantage over Russia in its plans to interfere in the 2024 election.

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What the heck is MSNBC thinking?

MSNBC hired former RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel as a commentator. She was aware of the fake elector's plot as it was happening, having conversations with Trump, John Eastman, and others about arranging for the false electoral certificates. See Newsweek, Ronna McDaniel's New Job Ignites a Firestorm.

Newsweek quoted one commentator as follows:

“NBC and MSNBC hired coup participant Ronna McDaniel as a commentator. She had direct conversations w/ Trump, Eastman and Michigan GOP chair Laura Cox about arranging fake electors," another X user wrote. "She could conceivably still be charged w/ a crime, She's a nonstop liar and propaganda machine about coup events. Heads should roll at NBC."

The problem with MSNBC’s hiring of McDaniel is that it normalizes the attempted coup. McDaniel should have attempted to stop it instead of feeding it oxygen with lies about voter fraud. MSNBC has rewarded her betrayal of the Constitution. What are the executives thinking?

MSNBC viewers should let their voices be heard. Watch this space for details—and let me know about actions designed to pressure MSBNC to reflect more deeply on its decision.

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Reader meetings in Houston (April 3) and San Antonio (April 6).

My wife and I will be in Texas to observe the eclipse. We will hold reader meetings on April 3 in Houston (6 p.m.) and April 6 in San Antonio (10 a.m.). We are looking for readers to host the meetings in a residence or business location in the respective cities.

Sign up here:

RSVP to Houston meeting on April 3 at 6:00 p.m.

RSVP to San Antonio meeting on April 6 at 10:00 a.m.

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Opportunities for engagement.

Focus for Democracy will hold an interesting event on March 26:

Curious about how data science and social psychology are used to build community and deliver the most effective messaging? Want to find out where your donations can make the biggest difference right now? Join Focus for Democracy for a briefing on 3/26 to learn how your contributions can make the most strategic impact this election cycle. 

Focus for Democracy Network Zoom

Tuesday, March 26 at 5PM PT/8PM ET

Click here to register or at this link: http://tinyurl.com/F4D26Mar

And BigTentUSA is hosting an event on the role of the Christian right in the rise of Trumpism:

On Wednesday, March 27, 2024 at 7pm ET/4pm PT. BigTentUSA is pleased to host investigative journalist Kathryn Joyce and author Jeff Sharlet. Both are long-time observers and experts on the American right-wing and conservative movement. They write on the central role of the Christian right in the rise of Trumpism and neofascism, and the types of institutions that the right-wing has built to create and sustain their movement to end democracy.

Currently the Christian movement is explicitly arguing that there is one acceptable culture in the United States—a Christian, conservative culture—which should be supported by the law and assumed to be the norm across all areas of public life here. And with the Speaker of the House, a self-defined Christian Nationalist, unmasking Christian nationalism will be key to preserving American democracy.

Register to meet Kathryn Joyce & Jeff Sharlet on Wednesday, March 27 using this link.

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Concluding Thoughts

Although I don’t normally discuss sports in the newsletter, my wife said that no self-respecting newsletter would fail to mention the story about Shohei Ohtani. So, I have. If anyone wants to post in the Comment section about Ohtani, my wife will read your comments with interest.

I failed in my effort to be brief. As the old saying goes, “If I had more time, I would have written a shorter paper.”

I received more than the usual number of emails today from people who are again nervous about the presidential election. My advice: Don’t try to collapse the future into the present moment. We have made a lot of progress in the last four weeks. We should view the next seven months as an opportunity to make even more progress—not as a gauntlet to be endured.

Each of the above stories demonstrates that Democrats have the high ground—both morally and politically. If you could choose a vantage for the battle to come, it would be ours!

Talk to you on Monday!