"No drama" Biden

May 10, 2024

President Biden traveled from Washington to California on Thursday. It was a quiet day following several quiet weeks filled with normal campaign appearances and two major interviews (Howard Stern and Erin Burnett).  Except for President Biden’s announcement of a potential change in US policy regarding the war in Gaza, Biden’s appearances over the last few weeks have been routine, disciplined, and on-message.

President Biden’s lack of drama is notable even if deemed unnewsworthy by major media. Stability, normalcy, and predictability are virtues in the person who leads the world’s only superpower and seeks to manage the world’s largest economy.

By comparison, over the same period, Trump's campaign appearances and interviews have yielded the following promises and threats (to name only a few):

·       Allow states to monitor the pregnancies of women to ensure they comply with abortion bans

·       Fire US attorneys who refuse to prosecute defendants targeted by Trump

·       Initiate mass deportations of alleged illegal immigrants using the US military and local law enforcement

·       Pardon insurrectionists who attacked the Capitol on January 6

·       Prosecute President Biden (for unspecified and non-existent crimes).

·       Deploy the National Guard to cities and states across America—presumably under the Insurrection Act, a deployment would violate the terms of the Act and implementing regulations

·       Withhold appropriated funds from states in the exercise of his personal discretion

·       Abandon NATO and South Asian allies if he feels the countries are not paying enough for their own defense.

·       Fire tens of thousands of civil servants and replace them with Trump acolytes whose only qualification is loyalty.

We take for granted the normalcy and absence of drama in President Biden’s governance. Biden does not treat foreign and domestic policy as props to focus attention on a monstrous ego. He does not stumble into self-generated crises. He does not openly fantasize about assuming dictatorial powers. He does not issue insults and slurs with abandon—which he then refuses to retract because of boundless pride.

So, Thursday was a quiet day for President Biden. We should not take such days for granted but rather welcome them as a sign of what life is like in a functioning democracy with a mature and experienced leader. It can continue to be so. We need only re-elect President Biden.

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Trump solicits political payoffs from oil company executives

Among the many shocking things Trump has done, openly soliciting political payoffs from oil company executives is near the top. See Washington Post, What Trump promised oil CEOs as he asked them to steer $1 billion to his campaign. (Article is accessible to all.)

Here is WaPo’s description of the incident:

As Donald Trump sat with some of the country’s top oil executives at his Mar-a-Lago Club last month, one executive complained about how they continued to face burdensome environmental regulations despite spending $400 million to lobby the Biden administration in the last year.

Trump’s response stunned several of the executives in the room overlooking the ocean:

[Trump said:] You all are wealthy enough, he said, that you should raise $1 billion to return me to the White House.

At the dinner, [Trump] vowed to immediately reverse dozens of President Biden’s environmental rules and policies and stop new ones from being enacted, according to people with knowledge of the meeting, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe a private conversation.

Giving $1 billion would be a “deal,” Trump said, because of the taxation and regulation they would avoid thanks to him, according to the people [at the dinner].

Got that? Trump explicitly connected raising $1 billion from oil executives and reversing Biden’s environmental rules that are unfavorable to oil companies. While the role of dirty money in politics is pervasive, explicit “quid pro quos” are usually exchanged in secret—because they are illegal. See 18 U.S. Code § 201 - Bribery of public officials and witnesses.

As usual, Trump is skirting the law. Section 201 prohibits public officials or “persons selected to be public officials” from demanding anything of value in exchange for an official act. If Trump made the same request after he had been elected (but before he was inaugurated), it would likely be a crime. Trump is walking right up to the line of illegality—again.

But saying that Trump has not committed a crime should not be the bar for judging his brazen solicitation of a payoff, i.e., “You raise $1 billion for me so I can repeal Joe Biden’s regulations that govern oil companies.” The mere hint of such an exchange should disqualify Trump as a candidate and outrage every American who believes their government is not for sale.

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Stormy Daniels defeats Trump's lawyers on second day of cross-examination

Trump had a very bad day in court on Thursday. His lawyers were defeated by a defiant and quick-witted Stormy Daniels. The cross-examination by Trump attorney Susan Necheles amounted to character assassination, effectively saying, “You are a porn star and therefore cannot be trusted to tell the truth.” (There is a cruder term for the attack on Stormy Daniels, which I will not repeat.)

The disastrous cross-examination not only failed to find its mark, but it likely rehabilitated Stormy Daniels in the eyes of the jury and allowed her to repeat details of the sexual encounter that the defense had strenuously attempted to exclude from the case.

When Trump's attorneys renewed their motion for a mistrial at the end of the day, an exasperated Judge Merchan excoriated Trump's counsel, noting that they had (a) put Daniels’ credibility at issue in their opening statement by denying the encounter took place; (b) they raised the allegedly prejudicial details on their cross-examination of Daniels, and (c) they failed to devote time to the only issue that mattered—Daniels’ lack of knowledge about Trump's involvement in the payment of hush money.

It was a humiliating day for Trump and his lawyers—two of whom had good reputations before they began representing Trump. No longer! By doing Trump's bidding at trial, they appear to be incompetent, clueless lawyers who have never tried a case prior to this one.

There is too much detail for me to cover in tonight’s newsletter—and I am not certain that everyone wants to hear the sordid details. But I recommend two resources for those who are interested.

First, Lawrence O’Donnell did a superb 21-minute monologue that captured both the details and the courtroom dynamic that was so devastating to Trump. See MSNBC, Lawrence: Why Trump's lawyer called him the 'orange turd' during Stormy testimony. (Be sure to turn up the volume in the embedded video player.)

Second, Lucian K. Truscott IV’s essay on Substack, Stormy beats Trump at his own game at his own trial.

As I have written, Trump's inability to filibuster and lie his way out of difficult situations is non-existent in the courtroom. To the extent that his lawyers willingly make nonsensical arguments on his behalf, they are destroying in minutes well-earned reputations that took decades to burnish. An old saying seems apt here: “If you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas.”

None of these developments assure a conviction. But the prosecution continues to offer evidence in a professional and meticulous manner. A fair and impartial jury should find Trump guilty on all counts in the indictments.

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Concluding Thoughts

As I reported on Wednesday, Trump failed to exceed 80% of the Republican vote in the Indiana presidential primary held on Tuesday. Trump won 78.3% of the vote in an uncontested primary and Nikki Haley won 21.7% even though she dropped out two months ago.

Trump's weak showing in Indiana was ignored by most of the mainstream media, but it has caught the attention of Trump's advisers. Rather than blaming Trump for the poor showing, the advisers are focusing on finding a vice-presidential candidate who can attract the Nikki Haley voters. See HuffPo, Republicans Urge Trump To Pick 2024 Running Mate Who Can Win Nikki Haley Voters.

What is most telling about the scramble to attract Haley voters with a Haley-like V.P. is that the search misses the obvious point: The problem is not the V.P. pick; it is Trump. Republicans in a closed primary voted against Trump. Giving them a “moderate” V.P. won’t solve the Trump problem.

Trump's only criteria for his vice president is whether the candidate will replace loyalty to the Constitution with loyalty to Trump. The candidates on that list are miscreants and insecure misfits seeking approval from a bully who will humiliate them to keep them in line. In other words, it’s not the “A” list of candidates. (Or the “B” or “C” lists either. We are talking about the “D” list of candidates.) Trump is not going to pick a “moderate” V.P. to attract Haley voters.

Why am I writing about Trump's V.P. pick in Concluding Thoughts? Because the V.P. choice, like every other issue in the Trump campaign, revolves around Trump's bottomless ego and boundless quest for vengeance. Neither of those qualities is conducive to running winning campaigns.

Remember that fact next time you worry about the labyrinth that Joe Biden must navigate in his reelection bid. Yes, Biden faces challenges. But the Biden-Harris campaign is building out a campaign organization in all fifty states that includes hundreds of field offices and state-level directors. Trump has not only failed to match the campaign infrastructure, he is distracted by the trial and the need to pay for his incompetent but high-priced lawyers.

Here's my point: This election will come down to turnout. Joe Biden and the Democrats are doing the blocking and tackling necessary to maximize turnout. Trump is busy trashing Stormy Daniels, Michael Cohen, and Judge Merchan through surrogates like Senator Rick Scott. If you were an employee considering offers of employment from each of the campaigns, where would you want to work?

Indiana was a canary in the mine for Trump. And it is an opportunity for Biden to reach out to independents and persuadable Republicans who are able to see Trump for who he is. Add to those new members of the Biden coalition the Democrats who should turn out in record numbers and we have every reason to be hopeful, but no reason to be complacent.

Talk to you tomorrow (with a short newsletter. I will be traveling on Friday, but will touch base to open the Comments section for the weekend.)