Looking forward

July 1, 2024

Here’s where we are on Monday, July 1, 2024:

Joe Biden is president. He has won the delegates to be the Democratic nominee. The day after the debate, he said he would not resign or withdraw. Early polls show the debate has had no effect in swing states. Trump remains an existential threat to democracy.

Under the circumstances, the sensible path is to stay the course with Joe Biden. It is also the best path to victory for the Democratic Party.

I don’t have a precise empirical basis for saying whether the readership of this newsletter agrees with the statement that staying the course is “the most sensible and best path forward.” Still, I can give you some data suggesting that the overwhelming majority of readers believe Biden should remain the Democratic nominee. But there is a strong and passionate minority of the newsletter readers who believe he should step aside. The divided passions of the readers of this newsletter reflect the debate roiling the Democratic Party.

Most editions of this newsletter are opened approximately 100,000 times. The newsletter following the debate (titled, “Joe Biden is going to win! Buck up!”) was opened approximately 200,000 times. The next newsletter (“Debate follow up”) was opened nearly 250,000 times. That dramatic increase in “opens” suggests that subscribers who agreed with the view Biden should remain in the race forwarded or posted the newsletter to share that message with people who do not subscribe to this newsletter.

I also received a couple hundred emails from readers who insisted with varying degrees of passion that Joe Biden should step aside. I received about five times as many emails (1,000-ish) thanking me for standing up for Joe Biden. (Yes, I spent nearly my entire weekend reading emails.)

This issue isn’t going away for several reasons, mostly because much of the media has concluded that Biden should go—after failing to challenge Trump in the same manner for his corrupt and treasonous conduct over the last seven years.

Let me get to the bottom line: People are entitled to their feelings and beliefs about the debate and the correct path forward. But having a public discussion about whether Joe Biden should remain as the Democratic candidate damages Biden because it presumes the result and weakens Biden’s candidacy if he stays in the race (which he will and should).  

If there is to be such a discussion—and I do not believe such a discussion is necessary or appropriate—it should take place in private with Biden, his family, and his advisors. It’s a free country, and people are entitled to express themselves. However, posting doubts on social media about Biden’s competency reinforces Speaker Mike Johnson’s claim that President Biden’s cabinet should invoke the 25th Amendment to remove him from the presidency. That cannot be a goal that any Democrat supports.

But even more damaging is the rampant speculation on liberal media outlets like MSNBC and Pod Save America about Joe Biden stepping down. (Lawrence O’Donnell is the exception on MSNBC.) They shroud their discussions with pundits in somber, caring tones, denying that they are advocating Biden should step down, claiming only that it is a serious question that deserves to be discussed—on cable news shows and podcasts.

Saying that the question of withdrawing should be discussed publicly is exactly the same thing as saying Biden should step down. Don’t delude yourselves into believing otherwise.

Sadly, Rep. Jamie Raskin went on a Sunday talk show (MSNBC) and said, “very honest, and serious and rigorous conversations taking place” in the Democratic Party following President Joe Biden’s performance at the presidential debate on Thursday. I love Jamie Raskin. He is an American hero. But he does not speak for the Democratic Party, Joe Biden, or the 80 million Americans who voted for Joe Biden. What was he thinking?

There are several aspects of this discussion that deserve to be highlighted—and are being ignored.

First, no one seems to acknowledge, much less care, that Joe Biden's forced removal would disenfranchise millions of voters who supported him during the primaries. It is disrespectful to the voters and the democratic process to assume that none of those votes matter and can be tossed out at the whim of a small cohort of party insiders.

Second, hundreds of thousands of volunteers worked to support Biden in the primaries and donated to his candidacy. The “Biden should resign” cohort seems willing to ignore those volunteers and donors with no acknowledgment or concern for their immense investment of time and resources to support Biden. Those volunteers are being taken for granted, treated as fungible worker bees who will turn on a dime to a new candidate. Many will; some might resent being treated like chattel by the pundit and consulting class that presumes to make decisions for 80 million Democratic voters.

Third, without dismissing the concerns of individual Democrats, the rush to remove Joe Biden is being driven by the media and pundits. The NYTimes had a large role in helping Trump win in 2016 and seems intent on doing so again. Are we really going to take the lead of the NYTimes—and by extension, a media that has been anti-Biden during the entirety of the most successful presidency in the last 75 years?

Fourth, removing Joe Biden is the outcome Donald Trump hopes for the most. Is granting Donald Trump his fondest wish something that sounds smart?

Fifth, the process of selecting a replacement would be anti-democratic. Under scenarios suggested by many, a small cohort of Democratic party insiders would presumably choose the next nominee. Oh, perfect. Who? How selected? How representative would they be? What process would they use? Worse, fantasies of an “open convention” risk mutually assured destruction. We cannot assign a zero probability to that risk, but that is how it is being treated by those who want to oust Biden.

Finally, comparing Joe Biden to a hypothetical “player to be named later” is unfair and will result in unpleasant surprises when the player to be named later turns out to be a flesh-and-blood human being with a political history and warts. Don’t traffic in fantasy. Every “replacement” candidate polls worse than Joe Biden in a head-to-head matchup with Trump. Many readers respond, “But the replacements haven’t had a chance to campaign yet and will increase in popularity.” That might turn out to be right (or wrong), but it is speculation. Speculation is a thin reed on which to base such a consequential decision.

Although the situation is still in flux, there are signs of a backlash developing against the media and pundits for demanding that Biden step down while giving Trump a pass for the last several years.

A few examples:

• The Philadelphia Inquirer published an editorial that mirrored and trolled the NYTimes by demanding that Trump resign: Philadelphia Inquirer, To serve his country, Donald Trump should leave the race | Editorial (inquirer.com). Subheader: “Biden had a horrible night Thursday. But the debate about the debate is misplaced. The only person who should withdraw from the race is Trump.”

• Lawrence O’Donnell devoted twenty minutes on Friday evening to explaining why it is silly to believe that Biden can replaced at this point. Twenty minutes is a long time; this issue is important. It is worth your time to watch the entire episode: Lawrence: We live in a country where most commentators declared the liar the debate winner (youtube.com).

• Lucian K. Truscott IV wrote a stirring defense of Biden in his post on Substack, Grow a spine, Democrats. Brilliant, profane, but entirely satisfying. Read it!

• Allison Gill, also on Substack as Mueller She Wrote, posted a similarly stirring call to back Joe Biden: Joe has my back, and I've got his. Gill writes,

  I think it’s a mistake to call for Joe to stand down because facts and history tell me he’s the best chance we have to defeat Donald Trump, AND because he’s the best person for the job based on the past 3.5 years of incredible leadership.

  My support for the Biden/Harris ticket is unwavering, and I’m proud that I’ll never have to walk back comments on any of my podcasts.

Although I am not certain, I assume that Allison Gill’s reference in the above paragraph to “never having to walk back comments on any of my podcasts” is a reference to the SNAFU at Pod Save America.

• The Pod Save America guys spent the first part of their show after the debate dumping all over Biden and the second part explaining how he could be replaced. They were shocked—shocked!—to learn that their fan base was outraged by their shabby treatment and seeming abandonment of Joe Biden—after encouraging their listeners to donate and volunteer for Biden. Jon Favreau then disparaged Democrats who believe that public conversations about dropping out are damaging to Biden. (He described their position in profane language.) Favreau called their loyalty “Maga sh*t” and said, “That’s how the GOP turned into a cult.” Later in the day, Favreau issued a stingy apology that finally got around to saying this:

  Like we've said on the pod, that's their call [to stay in the race], and if they stick with it, we'll certainly keep doing everything humanly possible to help re-elect the President - including encouraging the hundreds of thousands of @votesaveamerica volunteers who helped elect Biden in 2020 to again donate their time and money to winning in November.

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Concluding Thoughts

The 2024 election is not merely a choice between Biden and Trump. It is a choice between democracy and tyranny, liberty and subjugation, dignity and debasement, safety and mayhem, global stability and chaos, climate crisis mitigation or acceleration, retirement security and insecurity, justice and vengeance, science and ignorance, decency and depravity. If we cannot convince voters that the choice comes down to those polar opposites, it does not matter who the candidate is.

I support Joe Biden because he is a great president, a good and decent man, and a skilled politician who achieved great things with bare majorities in the House and Senate. His performance in the debate does not define him. I believe Joe Biden is the best candidate to defeat Trump. If he is forced out by a media-driven frenzy and a cabal of unnamed insiders and pundits, it will be the greatest miscalculation and tragedy in American politics in a century.

I am not giving up and I won’t be pressured into apologizing for Joe Biden’s imperfections in a world where every politician is imperfect. Shadowboxing with unnamed party insiders and pundits is a waste of time. We have real work to do. Let’s get to it!