Here is the note from Alice Schaffer Smith regarding actions steps you can take:
URGENT CALL TO ACTION: contact Senator Schumer's, Murkowski, Romney, Sinema, Collins, Manchin and Portman's offices and reach their chief of staff or legislative staff and explain why Moore v Harper will destroy our Constitution and it is imperative for them to cross the aisle and stand up for WE, THE PEOPLE this week. H.R. 5746 won't hurt any Republicans and gives every American the same rights.
Phone numbers are available on each state's page or on your senator's website
Senators Suite & Telephone List (PDF)
A U.S. Capitol Switchboard operator can also connect you directly with the Senate office. (202) 224-3121
PRIMO LEVI summed it up: "If not now, when?"
Fight for your democracy. Don't just LIKE what Robert, Heather Cox or I or others write.
Here is the email from Alice Schaffer Smith with background information on H.R. 5746:
Moore v Harper sets the State Legislature of North Carolina against its own State Supreme Court and its Constitution on the ridiculous proposition that Article 1.4 of the US Constitution grants exclusive jurisdiction to State Legislatures to the exclusion of its own State Constitution or its Supreme Court when Congress has failed to act under Article 1.4 to determine times, places and manner. of elections.
Listening to the Supreme Court hearing made me realize how imperative it is to pass H.R. 5746 this week in the U.S Senate to remove any chance that our Justices would revoke 233 years of precedence on this bizarre interpretation of the meaning of the election clause and grant essentially unlimited power to State Legislatures to call the shots on its own elections.
So here is a teach in for those who haven't followed HR 5746 or how the Supreme Court has been stripping Congress of its authority granted under Article 1.4, AND the 14th, 15th, 19th and other voting rights amendments and deferring to State Legislatures since 2010 under the Roberts' Court:
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In January the Senators filibustered H.R. 5746, The Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Voting Rights Act, thus preventing the Senate from exercising its authority under Article 1.4 to debate and then vote on a uniform federal election law. Under a rule of the Senate and not under the Constitution, a super majority of 60 votes is needed for the Senate to pass most legislation, even though the Congress is empowered to pass legislation under Article 1.4, the 14th and 15th Amendments without reference to any super majority filibuster rule. Thus California with 39m population has 2 Senators and the 5 least populous states have a total of 3.5m voters and 10 Senators plus the filibuster.
When it comes to passing voting rights, isn’t it ironic that voting rights advocates are asking the Senate to pass a uniform election code for voting to ensure 1 person 1 vote and every vote counted, yet the Senate itself does not have 1 Senator 1 vote.
Next: consider the role of the Supreme Court in ruling against Congress’ exercise of its powers under Articles 1.4, the 14th and 15th and subsequent voting right Amendments.
The Supreme Court has stated that unless Congress enacts specific election laws, times, places and manner of voting shall be determined by individual state legislatures.
Congress has the power to set uniform national standards for times, places and manner of voting under the Constitution of the United States of America. Article 1.4 grants to each State Legislature the power to set the times, places and manner of holding elections for US Senators and Representatives, “but the Congress may at any time by law make or alter such regulations.....”
Congress enacted and then amended 8 times, the Voting Rights Act of 1965 so that: “No voting qualification or prerequisite to voting, or standard, practice, or procedure, shall be imposed or applied by any State or political subdivision to deny or abridge the right of any citizen of the United States to vote on account of race or color” which purposes were subsequently expanded to include discrimination based on national origin, disabilities, etc.
The VRA’s greatest early impact was in its pre-clearance requirement for Federal Court or Justice Department approval before jurisdictions that had historically discriminated could change voting rules, processes, or procedures. One result: By 1969, Mississippi’s Black voter registration rate increased to 59% from 6%.
Nonetheless the US Supreme Court has been gutting and continues to gut the Voting Rights Act of 1965:
● Citizens United v FEC (2010) removed Federal campaign restrictions on Corporations and Unions, unleashing unlimited and undisclosed (foreign) money into politics
● Shelby County v Holder (2013) held that the pre-clearance formula is unconstitutional. Impact: 1688 polling places closed in previously covered States; 30 million voters purged from voting rolls, restrictive voting laws such as strict voter ID laws enacted in at least 19 states:
● Rucho v Common Cause (2019) ruled that state laws permitting partisan (not racial) gerrymandering are “beyond the reach of the federal courts.”
● Brnovich v DNC (2021) upheld an Arizona law to stop people from collecting ballots to deliver to precincts, which disproportionately impacted indigenous peoples; and to stop counting ballots from people who voted in the wrong precinct.
● Northeast Ohio Coalition for the Homeless (NEOCH) v. Husted (2016): by not granting certiorari upheld Ohio’s perfection rule allowing insignificant errors on the outside envelope of a provisional ballot to disqualify the vote of a properly registered voter - one was a blind 84 year old voter prohibited from voting, clearly a denial of the right to vote in contravention of the rights of disabled voters to be able to vote.
Thus State Legislatures have gained significant power after the Supreme Court overruled federal oversight of State and Local jurisdictions enacted under Article 1.4 and the 14th and subsequent voting related Amendments.
In January the House passed H.R.5746 – a federal uniform set of laws to ensure inter alia:
● uniform laws setting times, places and manner of voting:
● paper ballots for all voters to ensure post-election audits and accuracy;
● preventing the horrific 3 hours in line to vote in Georgia just on Friday by reducing to a maximum of 30 minutes the waiting time in line to vote, early voting, no excuse vote by mail,
● franking of the vote-by-mail envelope,
● adequate funding to the States to implement the mandates of H.R. 5746,
● a national holiday for election day,
● nonpartisan independent redistricting commissions in every state,
● no foreign money in our elections through clean money provisions,
● the Native American Voting Rights Act and reinstating the preclearance provisions of the John R Lewis Act with defined standards thus ending the impacts of Shelby, Rucho, NEOCH and Brnovich.
In this October 2022 Term the US Supreme Court has taken up 2 significant voting rights cases which likely will further result in its evisceration of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 ("VRA") and grant even more power to state legislatures.
Moore v Harper : By June 2023 SCOTUS is likely to grant North Carolina’s state legislature (and other states) power under Article 1.4 to determine times place and manners of elections even if held unconstitutional under the terms of North Carolina’s State Constitution, making state legislatures superior to the oversight of their State Supreme Courts.
Merrill v Mulligan : The Court is likely to support Alabama’s position that racial consideration in redistricting is impermissible, notwithstanding that eliminating the impact of racial segregation is an underlying purpose of the VRA. Keep in mind that the Roberts’ Court had no problem finding political gerrymandering by state legislatures to be constitutional in Rucho because it is not up to the Supreme Court to question the political decisions of an equal branch of government.
H.R. 5746 will not be re-enacted by the new House of Representatives on January 2023.
To protect the right to vote it is imperative to end the filibuster of H.R. 5746 this week: debate and vote on the Freedom to Vote: John R Lewis Voting Rights Act.
Thanks Robert: if only every Senator would consider whether they want the Supreme Court to systematically strip away Congressional power, eviscerating the Voting Rights Act of 1965 as amended.
Robert, I am an NC resident and voter. Moore v. Harper is the latest iteration of the Republicans in the NC General Assembly to deprive people of their rights. This case is in support of egregious gerrymandering. They would not be doing this if there were not a radical majority on the supreme court. They are hoping this crap sticks to the wall.
Well said. The irony is your Supreme Court overturned for NC Justice Robert’s odious opinion in Rucho where he infamously said that it was not up to the US Supreme Court to opine on a political decision of a equal branch of government when Congress had not ruled on gerrymandering. This reiterates the imperative that our US Senate sets federal standards by voting for HR 5746 immediately.
I’m so tired of the Democrats always having to play defense against ridiculous assertions made by the media who seem driven more by getting clicks and eyeballs rather than facts. The media today in some reporting is responsible for fueling the MAGA base and providing them with creditably. A perfect example of this is the comments about leaving a marine behind during the hostage swap. Here are the facts. Paul Whelan was court-martialed and dishonorably discharged for larceny, dereliction(s) of duty, lying, using someone else's social security number, and writing 10 bad checks.He was not a war hero. This information was not being reported in any detail by the mainstream media. Also not mentioned was the fact that Trump and John Bolton could not bring Whelan home after he was taken hostage during the Trump Administration. There are always two sides to every story. I just want the media to call it as it is.
While I do agree with all of your points, I’d like to sharpen it up a tad? That is, I believe he did not not receive a dishonorable discharge, but a bad conduct discharge, albeit it is still a significant punishment in the U.S. military justice system.
Thank you for that info on Whelan as I did not know those details. Also, Blinken and Kirby stated that Whelan’s case was more “complicated” and they are still working on getting him home. There’s another fellow stuck there also. Unfortunately, I cannot remember his name.
We should view her change in registration as a concession speech that she just lost the 2024 Democratic primary. In Arizona, you need only win a plurality to win a primary. She didn't believe she could even do that.
Also, political pundits believe she didn't get enough attention as a child and is trying to make up for that deficit now.
Jim Jeffords did this (leaving the Republican Party) in 2001 - the first time ever that party control of the Senate was flipped by such a switch - based on his principles and belief that the Republican Party had diverged too far from it's former integrity. There does not seem to be any principled decision behind Kristin Sinema's switch. Jeffords became and Independent - an increasingly popular position in VT in light of problems with both major parties. Bernie Sanders has done pretty well operating as a genuine Independent in foggy bottom. I wish we were at a point where real 3rd party could gain traction, but in the mean time Independents like me will need to work with the system we have, and with the only sane, compassionate and truly patriotic party left.
Sinema loves attention. She hopes to draw more attention to herself by being an independent. Warnock's win making 51 D's made her somewhat irrelevant. She couldn't stand that. She is unstable and cannot be trusted. I think she will continue to perform like she has over the past two years. She doesn't want to be one of the crowd.
So she will be a spoiler in the general election. It puts us in a tough spot. Independents don't draw away votes equally. So what's our best guess? Will her GQP opponent be so nuts that she will grab Republicans or will she send dedicated Democrats to their party of choice - she has been possibly more hated than Manchin by her own party. So is this bad in the short term and good in the long term? I don't know.
I do think she will be followed by those who love "mavericks". It is an Arizona tradition.
I think we have to consider that the people who supported her and donated to her in 2018 feel betrayed, including Independents. So I don't think anyone who voted for her previously will vote for her now. She has a 6% approval rating among Democrats and a 55% approval rating among Republics (who will NEVER vote for an LGBTQ, pro-choice, pro gay marriage candidate). Despite the trouble she caused Biden, she voted with him 98% of the time. No MAGA-leaning independent will support her. I think she is cashing in her chips and heading to K Street in Washington to be a lobbyist.
Many pundits said that it didn't really matter if Warnock won 'cause Dems would control the Senate regardless. But thinking it through a bit more (after recovering a little from the shock), if Walker had won, the Senate would be 50R, 49D, and 1 Sinema who wouldn't caucus with either party. In that case Rs would have controlled the Senate.
Some think she’s trying to head off a primary challenge by Reuben Gallego. But now he has almost two full years to consolidate Democratic support and raise money, and may well avoid any primary. In a 3-way race, what’s Sinema’s base?
Good points. Her base isn't MAGA. And the non MAGAs of the GQP are small in number. It's the independents that we don't hear enough about. If Reuben is not effectively primaried he could tack to the middle where they live?
She puts the AZ Dem party in a tough spot, if they primary her she'll probably lose but then they probably lose the AZ Senate seats to a Republican. I do think she is doing this out of pure ego and power though.
Her move to be an independent is irrelevant to her political future. She would not have run a second time anyway. She has been unpopular from the beginning, when she began her shenanigans. From what I understand, she has garnered a lot of money, and she will leave her Senate post in a position to become a lobbyist.
Warnocke, Griner, lower inflation, robust consumer spending and labor markets, same-sex marriage legislation, Ukraine taking the fight to Russian soil.......Repeat after me: I WILL NOT GET TIRED OF WINNING. I WILL NOT GET TIRED OF WINNING...
Robert, your comments regarding the election stories (yes, “stories?) from the media are excellent. Groups like Activate America https://www.activateamerica.vote/ and Focus for Democracy https://www.focus4democracy.org/ really are doing the heavy lifting of putting together data for maximum returns on get out the vote and more. The kind of deeper analysis they demonstrated during a Zoom call I participated in this fall really spoke to me about the efforts we need to pay attention to while turning away from the media headlines. In particular, I read the piece you wrote about indicating Georgia Republican voters may not have voted for Walker, etc. As I read it, there seemed to be more questions than good information. Let’s face it, the press is regretfully always so damn eager to have us believe they have the answers/scoop.
We must take your advice and move well beyond the media’s quick rush to show us they know best. Pundits are they.
Many scholars in linguistics, political science, sociology, and neuroscience psychology identify as Democrats yet the DNC historically appears to have been weak in developing effective messaging and conducting deeper dives into the pulse of the electorate.
Through time, political preferences, and priorities migrate. Furthermore, the Republicans have been masterful at creating content that captures emotional reflexes (fear and anger), resulting in Pavlovian responses and deafening other, more complicated debates.
We need to invest in the science of messaging and marketing to be agile and responsive to the pulse of the electorate.
The most important messaging that we have not coalesced around and is yet so simple has to do with the working class that so many Democrat leaders do not support. The rail strike was an obvious shot at pointing out in clear and loud terms just how badly the oligarchs are treating the people who make the billions - record profits.
2 engineers must operate a 3 mile long train and work 14 days in a row. Calling out sick isn't permitted. The railroad scheduling system is human abuse! Yet the top execs get richer and the shareholders get fatter. Until companies like this start treating employees as EQUAL stakeholders, the abuse will continue.
Talk about campaign ammunition! Stopping the strike may have been necessary. But dropping the subject is dropping the ball that was handed to us on a silver platter.
Sorry, Bill, but preventing the rail strike was the right thing to do. I’ve heard reports that the unions knew they couldn’t stand the blowback from a strike and wanted Biden to act. Remember what President Andrew Shepherd said he’d learned from his political mentor: You can’t have an airline strike at Christmas. Same goes for the railroads. Want to change things? Get enough Democrats in Congress to amend the Railway Labor Act.
Jon, I didn't read Bill's comment as saying that Biden was wrong. In fact, Bill clearly said this in his second paragraph: "Stopping the strike may have been necessary. But dropping the subject is dropping the ball that was handed to us on a silver platter."
In his second paragraph, Bill wrote: "The most important messaging that we have not coalesced around ... has to do with the working class that so many Democrat leaders do not support." The key word here is "we". And he is right. He is right that Dems need to coalesce around the rail strike and see to it asap that these workers get the humane working conditions that matter to them and their families. He is right that not doing this would indeed be dropping the ball.
At this point the question is not whether preventing the strike was right or necessary. But we are protecting our economy on the backs of people who have worked for far too long without basic protections for time off, sick leave, ability to plan their lives. We owe them a concerted, focused effort to correct those conditions. Railroads come under national commerce. Congress can create law to provide those basic rights to rail workers.
Bill is right: this is campaign ammunition. We fail these people again, and we hand the ball back to people who will use it as ammunition to "prove" Dems don't care about ordinary workers. I don't think that's true: Dems do care, but we let ourselves get distracted. We'd better get our act together and stop letting the vacuity of daily media distract us from real issues. Here we have an opportunity to bring this front and center as a priority NOW. Yet here we are, wringing our hands over how Cinema might vote, or how many people would compete against Trump if he runs (this is so not an issue right now). For god's sake, let's get back to the issues that matter to people and make them front and center. THAT is what will strengthen us for 2024.
It was the Democrats who passed a separate bill to provide sick leave to the rail workers; Republicans filibustered it in the Senate. I think that shows which side Democrats are on. Could labor issues be subject to more attention? Yes. Would that make a difference in the Congress we're facing for the next two years? Color me dubious.
Jon, what is your point? Do we just give up because the Republicans don't play nice? MY point is that we don't give up. We move this front and center at all levels. Other unions are supportive. More working people (not talking just about blue collar here- look at who are forming unions now) will pay attention IF we make a big deal out of it. Not just in Washington, but in our states, in our local organizations, through our memberships in various non-gov action groups. I think this should be at the top of our priorities because of the potential it has to become a non-partison issue. And because it is the right thing to do.
I think Annie clarified my points. I think it was necessary to avert the strike. But there is SO MUCH wrong with the way workers are treated. And we Democrats should be hammering that home. It's much more than railroads. There are many jobs where you don't know what your next weeks schedule is until the end of the week before. Managers wait for the software to predict retail sales trends and then staff precisely to a theoretical possibility. But even if it is technically accurate most of the time, it is UTTER CRUELTY to employees who can't schedule appointments or plan on family events.
I watched as these "innovations" destroyed morale and sent good, loyal workers packing.
Senator Sherrod Brown has a phrase we should run with. "The Dignity of Work".
Democrats and Labor (unions) need to align in shouting about these abuses. Democrats could again be the party synonymous with the working class. We took them for granted and the crazies picked them up.
The macro issue has been the chronic economic blood loss caused by the Republican sequestration of wealth over the past 50 years. The insidious loss of the middle class through the tax cuts and corporate friendly legislation has strangled labor leaving points of hemorrhage as seen with the rail crisis. Dealing with the rail strike is but a tourniquet. Income redistribution is needed to resuscitate the middle class.
Asset reallocation? Return of stolen national treasure?
We need employee representatives on boards of directors as equal stakeholders with share owners and top management. Employees need the power to say: "this company is nothing without us".
Because "corporations are people, too!" Right, Mitt?
When I saw the headline in Nate Cohn’s latest clickbait, my first thought was that the Republican Party is looking a lot less solid and monolithic. That can only be good news.
Check out New York Times Pitchbot on Twitter (and wherever it might move next) for a parody take on the NYT headlines and articles, which can't seem to find any event that doesn't deserve the tagline "Here's why that's bad for Biden." Once you start reading these tweets the actual NYT headlines will jump off the page - it almost seems as if the NYT is "parodying" itself. https://twitter.com/DougJBalloon?s=20
Robert - this may be old news to many but I just finished listening to Rachel Maddow’s “Ultra” series. It is astoundingly well written, researched and produced, and should be mandatory reading for every US citizen. As a history major in college, my course work ended just short of WW 1, and I am embarrassed to say that I haven’t put enough effort into filling in intervening events. Ultra does so - and it is a lesson in current events. Rachel also closes by underlining how individuals and groups of alert and committed citizens ultimately turned the tables on the infiltration of our government by Nazis and other fascist adherents.
Dec 9, 2022·edited Dec 9, 2022Liked by Robert B. Hubbell
One of my pet peeves is how statistics are so often misused and misleading in the media and other sources. Years ago while my husband was working on his Masters, I was working at an experimental college which offered a course titled "How to Lie with Statistics". It taught statistics but also how statistics can be twisted easily into lies. One that bothers me a lot is the statistics including only the two major parties. 30% of Republicans believe such and such. Since Republicans are around 25-30% of the voting population that means only 9% of the voters have that position. Doesn't sound so daunting, does it? I have seen more of the media reporting on the Independents which is around 40% of the voting population giving a much more comprehensive and accurate picture of what is happening. We, the People, all of us this time!
Perhaps that was the text used in the course. I took statistics at M.I.T., a required course for my degree in electrical engineering. I did not find statistics "intuitive" even though math was easy for me. I did earn an A in the course but it was more work than other courses to get my brain to think like a statistician. About all I can remember about the course was there was a problem about Oscar's lost dog.
Cree Hardegree (about whom I know nothing but this) posted a piece on FB about the Warnock win that is long, but SO spot-on I think your readers will appreciate it and be well advised! As a Californian who wrote a ton of postcards to GA, but took CA races somewhat for granted, I stand chastised. Check it out!
I hadn't known of him either, but I found what I think is the FB piece you referred to. I'm sorry if neither of the two links I shared aren't what you meant.
I see many people wondering how Herschel Walker got so many votes, but absolutely no one criticizing Georgia for not doing better with Warnock. His win was impressive!
Dear Robert, I did not receive your newsletter yesterday and have been worrying about you for 24 hours! After starting each day with you for several years I assumed you’d had a heart attack! Today’s came through, thankfully. Take care of yourself - you are an important part of my life.
Hi, Carole! I frequently receive similar emails. I am alive and well. Here is what is happening: Based on the content of the newsletter, your email filter is selectively redirecting certain editions to your "junk" or "spam" folders. (E.g., your spam filter might not like a newsletter that contains the word "Nazi" or "QANON."_
There are two workarounds. First, you can always read the newsletter online at https://roberthubbell.substack.com. Second do a Google search on how to put my newsletter on your "safe list" for the address roberthubbell@substack.com. Hope that helps!
I have hesitated to talk about the deal to trade Brittney Griner for Viktor Bout, because, as a retired Foreign Service Officer who was involved in similar situations during the Cold War, I understand how few options the Biden Administration actually has, and how difficult their situation is: they are being forced to trade international criminals like Bout for hostages. But some things must be said.
First, the Griner-Bout trade is a terrible deal. It was highly asymmetrical. Trading a WNBA star who effectively committed no crime at all for a person who is responsible for selling arms all over the world, and undoubtedly caused the deaths of thousands of innocents, is not making a deal -- it is paying ransom. It shows weakness to Putin, which is always bad since it could lead to further miscalculations on his part.
In particular, despite the naysaying in Washington, it does indeed tempt people like Putin into taking additional hostages. The record is quite clear on this, if you go back to the Cold War, and track what happened when the KGB was concerned about getting its "diplomats" and others back from the US. Just look up Igor Ivanov/Frederick Barghoorn (1963), Valdik Enger/Rudolf Chernyayev/Jay Crawford (1978), and Gennadiy Zakharov/Nicholas Daniloff (1986). The KGB took hostages then. So does former KGB officer Putin.
Second, although it's wonderful that Griner has been freed, we all know why she, a recently-imprisoned hostage, was given priority over Paul Whelan and Marc Fogel (the latter has not even been designated as "wrongfully detained" by the Biden Administration). It is because, in contrast to these latter two hostages, Griner had powerful political forces agitating for her release, forces whose support is critical to any Democrat seeking re-election.
Putin would not trade Bout for three Americans, or even two, and was counting on the fact that the Administration would eventually buckle because, unlike Putin, Democrats have to worry about the next election. Russian state media is wildly celebrating the Bout-Griner trade as a Russian victory, and for once, the Russian media is not lying.
It's very regrettable, but what's done is done. The question now is: what can be done to free Paul Whelan and Marc Fogel?
In the short term, the answer is probably: not much. I do, however, have a suggestion for the longer term. There is one US ally -- Ukraine -- who does have a lot of Russian prisoners, and has successfully traded someone Putin desperately wanted back, pro-Russian oligarch Viktor Medvechuk, for a large number of Ukrainian prisoners of war. Additional high-value prisoners will almost certainly fall into Ukrainian hands, and perhaps they could be persuaded to trade for Whelan and Fogel as well -- for a consideration. Certain military equipment comes to mind.
We live in an asymmetrical world. The Russian leadership, because of its brutality and inhumanity, can get away with taking hostages to spring their own criminals and spies from Western jails. We can't do that, but we can engage in asymmetric behavior ourselves. I'll leave it to the Administration to decide just what could be done, but there are plenty of areas where the Russians can be made to pay a price for their hostage-taking. This would balance the books by creating a new arithmetic, and improve chances for the release of our remaining hostages.
I don't understand why Americans feel safe entering Russia. There must tens (or hundreds?) thousands of Americans living in a country that sees them as potential hostages.
This is why trading now for Brittney Griner only puts a bandaid on the real problem. There are still plenty of Americans who have disregarded State Department warnings and are still working and living in Russia, including a couple of dozen basketball players (no WNBA stars, however). These people are little more than hostages-in-waiting for Putin, particularly now that he knows how vulnerable the Biden administration is on this issue. https://www.marca.com/en/basketball/2022/09/03/63137841268e3ec86a8b45a8.html
As noted above, she just conceded defeat in the Democratic primary for 2024, or announced that she is not running. Either way, she will not be in the Senate after 2024 and Schumer will remain Majority Leader in the Senate. It is maddening, but we should move past the anger and elect a loyal Democrat.
Jon, I don't know that she even has a base. I suspect that most Democrats are fed up with her, especially those who will vote in the primary, and she's not MAGA enough for MAGA Republicans and not conservative enough for what used to be called Republicans. She certainly has not compiled a Senate record that would garner the support of anyone! Her positions are sometimes loopy, and not consistent with Dems. I can't see her running as a third party candidate, though dumber things have happened. I agree with Dave -- she seems to have "groomed" herself for a position outside electoral politics.
Here is the note from Alice Schaffer Smith regarding actions steps you can take:
URGENT CALL TO ACTION: contact Senator Schumer's, Murkowski, Romney, Sinema, Collins, Manchin and Portman's offices and reach their chief of staff or legislative staff and explain why Moore v Harper will destroy our Constitution and it is imperative for them to cross the aisle and stand up for WE, THE PEOPLE this week. H.R. 5746 won't hurt any Republicans and gives every American the same rights.
Phone numbers are available on each state's page or on your senator's website
Senators Suite & Telephone List (PDF)
A U.S. Capitol Switchboard operator can also connect you directly with the Senate office. (202) 224-3121
PRIMO LEVI summed it up: "If not now, when?"
Fight for your democracy. Don't just LIKE what Robert, Heather Cox or I or others write.
Thank you
Primo Levi got that quote from Rabbi Hillel in a section of the Talmud called Pirkei Avot: Ethics of the Fathers.
Thank you!
Thank you. I was wondering about that.
https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm is the link which takes you to each Senator's detail. The general phone number cited above works fine.
The senators Suite and Telephone List PDF link isn't working.
https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm
Sorry: I hadn't tested the pdf but this works.
Here is the email from Alice Schaffer Smith with background information on H.R. 5746:
Moore v Harper sets the State Legislature of North Carolina against its own State Supreme Court and its Constitution on the ridiculous proposition that Article 1.4 of the US Constitution grants exclusive jurisdiction to State Legislatures to the exclusion of its own State Constitution or its Supreme Court when Congress has failed to act under Article 1.4 to determine times, places and manner. of elections.
Listening to the Supreme Court hearing made me realize how imperative it is to pass H.R. 5746 this week in the U.S Senate to remove any chance that our Justices would revoke 233 years of precedence on this bizarre interpretation of the meaning of the election clause and grant essentially unlimited power to State Legislatures to call the shots on its own elections.
So here is a teach in for those who haven't followed HR 5746 or how the Supreme Court has been stripping Congress of its authority granted under Article 1.4, AND the 14th, 15th, 19th and other voting rights amendments and deferring to State Legislatures since 2010 under the Roberts' Court:
----------
In January the Senators filibustered H.R. 5746, The Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Voting Rights Act, thus preventing the Senate from exercising its authority under Article 1.4 to debate and then vote on a uniform federal election law. Under a rule of the Senate and not under the Constitution, a super majority of 60 votes is needed for the Senate to pass most legislation, even though the Congress is empowered to pass legislation under Article 1.4, the 14th and 15th Amendments without reference to any super majority filibuster rule. Thus California with 39m population has 2 Senators and the 5 least populous states have a total of 3.5m voters and 10 Senators plus the filibuster.
When it comes to passing voting rights, isn’t it ironic that voting rights advocates are asking the Senate to pass a uniform election code for voting to ensure 1 person 1 vote and every vote counted, yet the Senate itself does not have 1 Senator 1 vote.
Next: consider the role of the Supreme Court in ruling against Congress’ exercise of its powers under Articles 1.4, the 14th and 15th and subsequent voting right Amendments.
The Supreme Court has stated that unless Congress enacts specific election laws, times, places and manner of voting shall be determined by individual state legislatures.
Congress has the power to set uniform national standards for times, places and manner of voting under the Constitution of the United States of America. Article 1.4 grants to each State Legislature the power to set the times, places and manner of holding elections for US Senators and Representatives, “but the Congress may at any time by law make or alter such regulations.....”
Congress enacted and then amended 8 times, the Voting Rights Act of 1965 so that: “No voting qualification or prerequisite to voting, or standard, practice, or procedure, shall be imposed or applied by any State or political subdivision to deny or abridge the right of any citizen of the United States to vote on account of race or color” which purposes were subsequently expanded to include discrimination based on national origin, disabilities, etc.
The VRA’s greatest early impact was in its pre-clearance requirement for Federal Court or Justice Department approval before jurisdictions that had historically discriminated could change voting rules, processes, or procedures. One result: By 1969, Mississippi’s Black voter registration rate increased to 59% from 6%.
Nonetheless the US Supreme Court has been gutting and continues to gut the Voting Rights Act of 1965:
● Citizens United v FEC (2010) removed Federal campaign restrictions on Corporations and Unions, unleashing unlimited and undisclosed (foreign) money into politics
● Shelby County v Holder (2013) held that the pre-clearance formula is unconstitutional. Impact: 1688 polling places closed in previously covered States; 30 million voters purged from voting rolls, restrictive voting laws such as strict voter ID laws enacted in at least 19 states:
● Rucho v Common Cause (2019) ruled that state laws permitting partisan (not racial) gerrymandering are “beyond the reach of the federal courts.”
● Brnovich v DNC (2021) upheld an Arizona law to stop people from collecting ballots to deliver to precincts, which disproportionately impacted indigenous peoples; and to stop counting ballots from people who voted in the wrong precinct.
● Northeast Ohio Coalition for the Homeless (NEOCH) v. Husted (2016): by not granting certiorari upheld Ohio’s perfection rule allowing insignificant errors on the outside envelope of a provisional ballot to disqualify the vote of a properly registered voter - one was a blind 84 year old voter prohibited from voting, clearly a denial of the right to vote in contravention of the rights of disabled voters to be able to vote.
Thus State Legislatures have gained significant power after the Supreme Court overruled federal oversight of State and Local jurisdictions enacted under Article 1.4 and the 14th and subsequent voting related Amendments.
In January the House passed H.R.5746 – a federal uniform set of laws to ensure inter alia:
● uniform laws setting times, places and manner of voting:
● paper ballots for all voters to ensure post-election audits and accuracy;
● preventing the horrific 3 hours in line to vote in Georgia just on Friday by reducing to a maximum of 30 minutes the waiting time in line to vote, early voting, no excuse vote by mail,
● franking of the vote-by-mail envelope,
● adequate funding to the States to implement the mandates of H.R. 5746,
● a national holiday for election day,
● nonpartisan independent redistricting commissions in every state,
● no foreign money in our elections through clean money provisions,
● the Native American Voting Rights Act and reinstating the preclearance provisions of the John R Lewis Act with defined standards thus ending the impacts of Shelby, Rucho, NEOCH and Brnovich.
In this October 2022 Term the US Supreme Court has taken up 2 significant voting rights cases which likely will further result in its evisceration of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 ("VRA") and grant even more power to state legislatures.
Moore v Harper : By June 2023 SCOTUS is likely to grant North Carolina’s state legislature (and other states) power under Article 1.4 to determine times place and manners of elections even if held unconstitutional under the terms of North Carolina’s State Constitution, making state legislatures superior to the oversight of their State Supreme Courts.
Merrill v Mulligan : The Court is likely to support Alabama’s position that racial consideration in redistricting is impermissible, notwithstanding that eliminating the impact of racial segregation is an underlying purpose of the VRA. Keep in mind that the Roberts’ Court had no problem finding political gerrymandering by state legislatures to be constitutional in Rucho because it is not up to the Supreme Court to question the political decisions of an equal branch of government.
H.R. 5746 will not be re-enacted by the new House of Representatives on January 2023.
To protect the right to vote it is imperative to end the filibuster of H.R. 5746 this week: debate and vote on the Freedom to Vote: John R Lewis Voting Rights Act.
Alice Schaffer Smith
Executive Director
National Voter Corps
850 Webster Street #520
Palo Alto, CA 94301
www.nationalvotercorps.org
a non profit project under the Social Good Fund
Thanks Robert: if only every Senator would consider whether they want the Supreme Court to systematically strip away Congressional power, eviscerating the Voting Rights Act of 1965 as amended.
Robert, I am an NC resident and voter. Moore v. Harper is the latest iteration of the Republicans in the NC General Assembly to deprive people of their rights. This case is in support of egregious gerrymandering. They would not be doing this if there were not a radical majority on the supreme court. They are hoping this crap sticks to the wall.
Well said. The irony is your Supreme Court overturned for NC Justice Robert’s odious opinion in Rucho where he infamously said that it was not up to the US Supreme Court to opine on a political decision of a equal branch of government when Congress had not ruled on gerrymandering. This reiterates the imperative that our US Senate sets federal standards by voting for HR 5746 immediately.
I agree. This lawsuit is an outrageous attempt to grab power. The Rucho decision was ridiculous as well as odious.
I’m so tired of the Democrats always having to play defense against ridiculous assertions made by the media who seem driven more by getting clicks and eyeballs rather than facts. The media today in some reporting is responsible for fueling the MAGA base and providing them with creditably. A perfect example of this is the comments about leaving a marine behind during the hostage swap. Here are the facts. Paul Whelan was court-martialed and dishonorably discharged for larceny, dereliction(s) of duty, lying, using someone else's social security number, and writing 10 bad checks.He was not a war hero. This information was not being reported in any detail by the mainstream media. Also not mentioned was the fact that Trump and John Bolton could not bring Whelan home after he was taken hostage during the Trump Administration. There are always two sides to every story. I just want the media to call it as it is.
B..b..b..Hunter Biden’s laptop! Hillary’s emails! Obama’s tan suit!
And Michelle's sleeveless dress. Let's get all the facts in here.
While I do agree with all of your points, I’d like to sharpen it up a tad? That is, I believe he did not not receive a dishonorable discharge, but a bad conduct discharge, albeit it is still a significant punishment in the U.S. military justice system.
My point is that Whelan was not a marine hero and the marine mantra of leave no marine behind in my opinion doesn’t fit this scenario
Thank you for that info on Whelan as I did not know those details. Also, Blinken and Kirby stated that Whelan’s case was more “complicated” and they are still working on getting him home. There’s another fellow stuck there also. Unfortunately, I cannot remember his name.
Kyrsten Sinema Says She Will Leave the Democratic Party
The senator is registering as an independent, noting that she “never fit perfectly in either national party.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/09/us/politics/kyrsten-sinema-democrats.html
My comment: She has no political future: She is too crazy for Democrats, not crazy enough for Republicans. Good thing Warnock won!!!
We should view her change in registration as a concession speech that she just lost the 2024 Democratic primary. In Arizona, you need only win a plurality to win a primary. She didn't believe she could even do that.
Also, political pundits believe she didn't get enough attention as a child and is trying to make up for that deficit now.
Jim Jeffords did this (leaving the Republican Party) in 2001 - the first time ever that party control of the Senate was flipped by such a switch - based on his principles and belief that the Republican Party had diverged too far from it's former integrity. There does not seem to be any principled decision behind Kristin Sinema's switch. Jeffords became and Independent - an increasingly popular position in VT in light of problems with both major parties. Bernie Sanders has done pretty well operating as a genuine Independent in foggy bottom. I wish we were at a point where real 3rd party could gain traction, but in the mean time Independents like me will need to work with the system we have, and with the only sane, compassionate and truly patriotic party left.
Sinema's political career has certainly pinged all around like a pinball. She has gone down whatever avenue afforded her the most notice.
LOL
Sinema loves attention. She hopes to draw more attention to herself by being an independent. Warnock's win making 51 D's made her somewhat irrelevant. She couldn't stand that. She is unstable and cannot be trusted. I think she will continue to perform like she has over the past two years. She doesn't want to be one of the crowd.
ditto
So she will be a spoiler in the general election. It puts us in a tough spot. Independents don't draw away votes equally. So what's our best guess? Will her GQP opponent be so nuts that she will grab Republicans or will she send dedicated Democrats to their party of choice - she has been possibly more hated than Manchin by her own party. So is this bad in the short term and good in the long term? I don't know.
I do think she will be followed by those who love "mavericks". It is an Arizona tradition.
I think we have to consider that the people who supported her and donated to her in 2018 feel betrayed, including Independents. So I don't think anyone who voted for her previously will vote for her now. She has a 6% approval rating among Democrats and a 55% approval rating among Republics (who will NEVER vote for an LGBTQ, pro-choice, pro gay marriage candidate). Despite the trouble she caused Biden, she voted with him 98% of the time. No MAGA-leaning independent will support her. I think she is cashing in her chips and heading to K Street in Washington to be a lobbyist.
Many pundits said that it didn't really matter if Warnock won 'cause Dems would control the Senate regardless. But thinking it through a bit more (after recovering a little from the shock), if Walker had won, the Senate would be 50R, 49D, and 1 Sinema who wouldn't caucus with either party. In that case Rs would have controlled the Senate.
Some think she’s trying to head off a primary challenge by Reuben Gallego. But now he has almost two full years to consolidate Democratic support and raise money, and may well avoid any primary. In a 3-way race, what’s Sinema’s base?
Good points. Her base isn't MAGA. And the non MAGAs of the GQP are small in number. It's the independents that we don't hear enough about. If Reuben is not effectively primaried he could tack to the middle where they live?
I suspect she has something going outside of the world of electoral politics. In the race to replace her I'd put a serious chunk of change on Gallego.
What’s the “Q”? Quack, as in the Good Quack Party?
Q'Anon
She puts the AZ Dem party in a tough spot, if they primary her she'll probably lose but then they probably lose the AZ Senate seats to a Republican. I do think she is doing this out of pure ego and power though.
and $
She has been totally trashed on Twitter. Many people calling for her resignation.
There was one suggestion that Biden offer her an ambassadorship and then the newly minted Democratic governor of Arizona could appoint a new senator.
Sounds brilliant!
Her move to be an independent is irrelevant to her political future. She would not have run a second time anyway. She has been unpopular from the beginning, when she began her shenanigans. From what I understand, she has garnered a lot of money, and she will leave her Senate post in a position to become a lobbyist.
Let's keep in mind that Nate Cohn is one of the over-educated otherwise-unemployables at the Nation's Finest Fishwrap - the New York Times.
He is not my favorite commentator. I found his report on the Warnock - Walker race almost unreadable. Sloppy, too.
Warnocke, Griner, lower inflation, robust consumer spending and labor markets, same-sex marriage legislation, Ukraine taking the fight to Russian soil.......Repeat after me: I WILL NOT GET TIRED OF WINNING. I WILL NOT GET TIRED OF WINNING...
Robert, your comments regarding the election stories (yes, “stories?) from the media are excellent. Groups like Activate America https://www.activateamerica.vote/ and Focus for Democracy https://www.focus4democracy.org/ really are doing the heavy lifting of putting together data for maximum returns on get out the vote and more. The kind of deeper analysis they demonstrated during a Zoom call I participated in this fall really spoke to me about the efforts we need to pay attention to while turning away from the media headlines. In particular, I read the piece you wrote about indicating Georgia Republican voters may not have voted for Walker, etc. As I read it, there seemed to be more questions than good information. Let’s face it, the press is regretfully always so damn eager to have us believe they have the answers/scoop.
We must take your advice and move well beyond the media’s quick rush to show us they know best. Pundits are they.
Many scholars in linguistics, political science, sociology, and neuroscience psychology identify as Democrats yet the DNC historically appears to have been weak in developing effective messaging and conducting deeper dives into the pulse of the electorate.
Through time, political preferences, and priorities migrate. Furthermore, the Republicans have been masterful at creating content that captures emotional reflexes (fear and anger), resulting in Pavlovian responses and deafening other, more complicated debates.
We need to invest in the science of messaging and marketing to be agile and responsive to the pulse of the electorate.
The most important messaging that we have not coalesced around and is yet so simple has to do with the working class that so many Democrat leaders do not support. The rail strike was an obvious shot at pointing out in clear and loud terms just how badly the oligarchs are treating the people who make the billions - record profits.
2 engineers must operate a 3 mile long train and work 14 days in a row. Calling out sick isn't permitted. The railroad scheduling system is human abuse! Yet the top execs get richer and the shareholders get fatter. Until companies like this start treating employees as EQUAL stakeholders, the abuse will continue.
Talk about campaign ammunition! Stopping the strike may have been necessary. But dropping the subject is dropping the ball that was handed to us on a silver platter.
Sorry, Bill, but preventing the rail strike was the right thing to do. I’ve heard reports that the unions knew they couldn’t stand the blowback from a strike and wanted Biden to act. Remember what President Andrew Shepherd said he’d learned from his political mentor: You can’t have an airline strike at Christmas. Same goes for the railroads. Want to change things? Get enough Democrats in Congress to amend the Railway Labor Act.
Jon, I didn't read Bill's comment as saying that Biden was wrong. In fact, Bill clearly said this in his second paragraph: "Stopping the strike may have been necessary. But dropping the subject is dropping the ball that was handed to us on a silver platter."
In his second paragraph, Bill wrote: "The most important messaging that we have not coalesced around ... has to do with the working class that so many Democrat leaders do not support." The key word here is "we". And he is right. He is right that Dems need to coalesce around the rail strike and see to it asap that these workers get the humane working conditions that matter to them and their families. He is right that not doing this would indeed be dropping the ball.
At this point the question is not whether preventing the strike was right or necessary. But we are protecting our economy on the backs of people who have worked for far too long without basic protections for time off, sick leave, ability to plan their lives. We owe them a concerted, focused effort to correct those conditions. Railroads come under national commerce. Congress can create law to provide those basic rights to rail workers.
Bill is right: this is campaign ammunition. We fail these people again, and we hand the ball back to people who will use it as ammunition to "prove" Dems don't care about ordinary workers. I don't think that's true: Dems do care, but we let ourselves get distracted. We'd better get our act together and stop letting the vacuity of daily media distract us from real issues. Here we have an opportunity to bring this front and center as a priority NOW. Yet here we are, wringing our hands over how Cinema might vote, or how many people would compete against Trump if he runs (this is so not an issue right now). For god's sake, let's get back to the issues that matter to people and make them front and center. THAT is what will strengthen us for 2024.
It was the Democrats who passed a separate bill to provide sick leave to the rail workers; Republicans filibustered it in the Senate. I think that shows which side Democrats are on. Could labor issues be subject to more attention? Yes. Would that make a difference in the Congress we're facing for the next two years? Color me dubious.
Jon, what is your point? Do we just give up because the Republicans don't play nice? MY point is that we don't give up. We move this front and center at all levels. Other unions are supportive. More working people (not talking just about blue collar here- look at who are forming unions now) will pay attention IF we make a big deal out of it. Not just in Washington, but in our states, in our local organizations, through our memberships in various non-gov action groups. I think this should be at the top of our priorities because of the potential it has to become a non-partison issue. And because it is the right thing to do.
I think Annie clarified my points. I think it was necessary to avert the strike. But there is SO MUCH wrong with the way workers are treated. And we Democrats should be hammering that home. It's much more than railroads. There are many jobs where you don't know what your next weeks schedule is until the end of the week before. Managers wait for the software to predict retail sales trends and then staff precisely to a theoretical possibility. But even if it is technically accurate most of the time, it is UTTER CRUELTY to employees who can't schedule appointments or plan on family events.
I watched as these "innovations" destroyed morale and sent good, loyal workers packing.
Senator Sherrod Brown has a phrase we should run with. "The Dignity of Work".
Democrats and Labor (unions) need to align in shouting about these abuses. Democrats could again be the party synonymous with the working class. We took them for granted and the crazies picked them up.
The macro issue has been the chronic economic blood loss caused by the Republican sequestration of wealth over the past 50 years. The insidious loss of the middle class through the tax cuts and corporate friendly legislation has strangled labor leaving points of hemorrhage as seen with the rail crisis. Dealing with the rail strike is but a tourniquet. Income redistribution is needed to resuscitate the middle class.
You speak the truth. Fancy policies have sent $50 trillion up to a handle of people in a few decades.
There is plenty of money in this country - the richest nation in human history. It's just in the wrong hands.
I agree, as long as you don’t call it that
Asset reallocation? Return of stolen national treasure?
We need employee representatives on boards of directors as equal stakeholders with share owners and top management. Employees need the power to say: "this company is nothing without us".
Because "corporations are people, too!" Right, Mitt?
Love this Bill. I agree 200%! Realistically. Corporate Dems run the party.
When I saw the headline in Nate Cohn’s latest clickbait, my first thought was that the Republican Party is looking a lot less solid and monolithic. That can only be good news.
My takeaway was that Republicans voted for Democrats and Nate Cohn thought that was a bad sign for Democrats. Huh?
Exactly!
Check out New York Times Pitchbot on Twitter (and wherever it might move next) for a parody take on the NYT headlines and articles, which can't seem to find any event that doesn't deserve the tagline "Here's why that's bad for Biden." Once you start reading these tweets the actual NYT headlines will jump off the page - it almost seems as if the NYT is "parodying" itself. https://twitter.com/DougJBalloon?s=20
Robert - this may be old news to many but I just finished listening to Rachel Maddow’s “Ultra” series. It is astoundingly well written, researched and produced, and should be mandatory reading for every US citizen. As a history major in college, my course work ended just short of WW 1, and I am embarrassed to say that I haven’t put enough effort into filling in intervening events. Ultra does so - and it is a lesson in current events. Rachel also closes by underlining how individuals and groups of alert and committed citizens ultimately turned the tables on the infiltration of our government by Nazis and other fascist adherents.
Yes, agree! I am on episode 6. Incredibly well done, and a good dose of perspective!
One of my pet peeves is how statistics are so often misused and misleading in the media and other sources. Years ago while my husband was working on his Masters, I was working at an experimental college which offered a course titled "How to Lie with Statistics". It taught statistics but also how statistics can be twisted easily into lies. One that bothers me a lot is the statistics including only the two major parties. 30% of Republicans believe such and such. Since Republicans are around 25-30% of the voting population that means only 9% of the voters have that position. Doesn't sound so daunting, does it? I have seen more of the media reporting on the Independents which is around 40% of the voting population giving a much more comprehensive and accurate picture of what is happening. We, the People, all of us this time!
“How to lie with statistics“ is a famous book that is taught in every statistics 101 class. I have it on my bookshelf…
Sadly, most people hardly have enough math to make change without using a calculator. They know even less about statistics
Perhaps that was the text used in the course. I took statistics at M.I.T., a required course for my degree in electrical engineering. I did not find statistics "intuitive" even though math was easy for me. I did earn an A in the course but it was more work than other courses to get my brain to think like a statistician. About all I can remember about the course was there was a problem about Oscar's lost dog.
Cree Hardegree (about whom I know nothing but this) posted a piece on FB about the Warnock win that is long, but SO spot-on I think your readers will appreciate it and be well advised! As a Californian who wrote a ton of postcards to GA, but took CA races somewhat for granted, I stand chastised. Check it out!
Can you cut and paste the piece from FAcebook? Thanks!
I think this is the FB post Cheryl referred to:
<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fcree.hardegree%2Fposts%2Fpfbid02t3y3eGX4wwuAF8W7z3CupDpgXSgFpawTAxTs89pJYUHiUoRMJUG27drqiytmbz3jl&show_text=true&width=500" width="500" height="738" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share"></iframe>
Wow, pretty harsh assessment, but I do not find fault with Cree’s argument. I wish he would write Dem’s messaging!
THANK YOU for that link!!!! Excellent chastisement/opinion piece by Cree Hardegree!!!
Cree Hardegree can be found on Patreon. Brilliant writing!
<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fcree.hardegree%2Fposts%2Fpfbid0meYWkyvdA7frC9Atq3rQDhH5zmKUMx3TPm37dkTB57x34qWWutpevHbbiGXwfRE1l&show_text=true&width=500" width="500" height="718" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share"></iframe>
(I don't think this is the FB post Cheryl referred to, but here it is anyway.)
Thanks, Mim. That isn't the one, but the other link worked.
Okay, good. I won't delete it because it, too, is interesting.
I hadn't known of him either, but I found what I think is the FB piece you referred to. I'm sorry if neither of the two links I shared aren't what you meant.
At least one worked for me. Thanks for doing that, I'm a techno amateur.
You're welcome. Glad I could be of service.
Still a good read, thanks
I see many people wondering how Herschel Walker got so many votes, but absolutely no one criticizing Georgia for not doing better with Warnock. His win was impressive!
Dear Robert, I did not receive your newsletter yesterday and have been worrying about you for 24 hours! After starting each day with you for several years I assumed you’d had a heart attack! Today’s came through, thankfully. Take care of yourself - you are an important part of my life.
Carole Turner-Record, London, UK
Hi, Carole! I frequently receive similar emails. I am alive and well. Here is what is happening: Based on the content of the newsletter, your email filter is selectively redirecting certain editions to your "junk" or "spam" folders. (E.g., your spam filter might not like a newsletter that contains the word "Nazi" or "QANON."_
There are two workarounds. First, you can always read the newsletter online at https://roberthubbell.substack.com. Second do a Google search on how to put my newsletter on your "safe list" for the address roberthubbell@substack.com. Hope that helps!
I have hesitated to talk about the deal to trade Brittney Griner for Viktor Bout, because, as a retired Foreign Service Officer who was involved in similar situations during the Cold War, I understand how few options the Biden Administration actually has, and how difficult their situation is: they are being forced to trade international criminals like Bout for hostages. But some things must be said.
First, the Griner-Bout trade is a terrible deal. It was highly asymmetrical. Trading a WNBA star who effectively committed no crime at all for a person who is responsible for selling arms all over the world, and undoubtedly caused the deaths of thousands of innocents, is not making a deal -- it is paying ransom. It shows weakness to Putin, which is always bad since it could lead to further miscalculations on his part.
In particular, despite the naysaying in Washington, it does indeed tempt people like Putin into taking additional hostages. The record is quite clear on this, if you go back to the Cold War, and track what happened when the KGB was concerned about getting its "diplomats" and others back from the US. Just look up Igor Ivanov/Frederick Barghoorn (1963), Valdik Enger/Rudolf Chernyayev/Jay Crawford (1978), and Gennadiy Zakharov/Nicholas Daniloff (1986). The KGB took hostages then. So does former KGB officer Putin.
Second, although it's wonderful that Griner has been freed, we all know why she, a recently-imprisoned hostage, was given priority over Paul Whelan and Marc Fogel (the latter has not even been designated as "wrongfully detained" by the Biden Administration). It is because, in contrast to these latter two hostages, Griner had powerful political forces agitating for her release, forces whose support is critical to any Democrat seeking re-election.
Putin would not trade Bout for three Americans, or even two, and was counting on the fact that the Administration would eventually buckle because, unlike Putin, Democrats have to worry about the next election. Russian state media is wildly celebrating the Bout-Griner trade as a Russian victory, and for once, the Russian media is not lying.
It's very regrettable, but what's done is done. The question now is: what can be done to free Paul Whelan and Marc Fogel?
In the short term, the answer is probably: not much. I do, however, have a suggestion for the longer term. There is one US ally -- Ukraine -- who does have a lot of Russian prisoners, and has successfully traded someone Putin desperately wanted back, pro-Russian oligarch Viktor Medvechuk, for a large number of Ukrainian prisoners of war. Additional high-value prisoners will almost certainly fall into Ukrainian hands, and perhaps they could be persuaded to trade for Whelan and Fogel as well -- for a consideration. Certain military equipment comes to mind.
We live in an asymmetrical world. The Russian leadership, because of its brutality and inhumanity, can get away with taking hostages to spring their own criminals and spies from Western jails. We can't do that, but we can engage in asymmetric behavior ourselves. I'll leave it to the Administration to decide just what could be done, but there are plenty of areas where the Russians can be made to pay a price for their hostage-taking. This would balance the books by creating a new arithmetic, and improve chances for the release of our remaining hostages.
Once again, Ukraine comes to mind.
Thanks for the analysis.
I don't understand why Americans feel safe entering Russia. There must tens (or hundreds?) thousands of Americans living in a country that sees them as potential hostages.
This is why trading now for Brittney Griner only puts a bandaid on the real problem. There are still plenty of Americans who have disregarded State Department warnings and are still working and living in Russia, including a couple of dozen basketball players (no WNBA stars, however). These people are little more than hostages-in-waiting for Putin, particularly now that he knows how vulnerable the Biden administration is on this issue. https://www.marca.com/en/basketball/2022/09/03/63137841268e3ec86a8b45a8.html
Sinema news just broke. Awaiting your comments on what Az voters can do about her defection.
What about the count the vote act which supposedly had bi-partisan support?
So appreciate your wise perspectives on things the msm blow out of proportion!
As noted above, she just conceded defeat in the Democratic primary for 2024, or announced that she is not running. Either way, she will not be in the Senate after 2024 and Schumer will remain Majority Leader in the Senate. It is maddening, but we should move past the anger and elect a loyal Democrat.
Jon, I don't know that she even has a base. I suspect that most Democrats are fed up with her, especially those who will vote in the primary, and she's not MAGA enough for MAGA Republicans and not conservative enough for what used to be called Republicans. She certainly has not compiled a Senate record that would garner the support of anyone! Her positions are sometimes loopy, and not consistent with Dems. I can't see her running as a third party candidate, though dumber things have happened. I agree with Dave -- she seems to have "groomed" herself for a position outside electoral politics.
AZ Democratic Party trashes Sinema. See https://twitter.com/azdemparty/status/1601234289357557760/photo/1 OR https://twitter.com/azdemparty/status/1601234289357557760