Keeping my head down, working to elect Democrats

July 18, 2024

“If you are going through hell, keep going.” Winston Churchill never uttered that phrase, but he should have.

What I plan to do. After another tumultuous day, here’s what I am going to do: I will keep my head down and continue my efforts to elect Democrats up and down the ballot in 2024. That includes electing the Democratic presumptive nominee, Joe Biden. If the nominee changes, I will keep my head down and continue to elect Democrats up and down the ballot, including the Democratic nominee.

You should do the same. If you don’t want Biden on the ticket, you should still devote all your energies to electing other Democrats. We have no time to waste, and the intra-party discussion over Biden has dragged on too long. The debate over the president cannot be allowed to demotivate or dispirit the hundreds of thousands of “in-the-trenches” grassroots volunteers who are the first and last lines of defense in 2024. Based on reader emails, I fear that it is starting to have that effect.

Developments on Wednesday. With apologies to readers who have written to say they are weary of the discussion of the effort to oust Biden, there were several major developments today that deserve comment. I don’t believe any of those developments change the fundamentals or Democratic prospects in 2024.

But first, some information about “the polls.” Before discussing developments, let’s conduct a reality check. The wave of panic sweeping through some quarters of the Democratic Party is premised on the assumption that Joe Biden cannot win; indeed, the argument is that he will lose so badly he will drag the Senate and the House down with him. The predicate for that argument is “the polls.”

Although my advice is to ignore the polls, if people try to force Joe Biden out of the race based on polls, they should look at the polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight.com. According to election simulations performed by 538, Joe Biden wins in 54 out of 100 election simulations, and Trump wins in 46 out of 100. See Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? | FiveThirtyEight.

Candidly, I think FiveThirtyEight is a sophisticated form of sorcery. The only thing I take from FiveThirtyEight’s analysis is that the race remains close. Given the stretch of bad news and negative press Joe Biden has suffered in the last month, that is encouraging news, indeed.

Finally, although I urge you to ignore the polls, if you want more polls than you can eat, read Phillip Bump’s detailed analysis in WaPo, Again: Polls are not going to make Democrats’ case on Biden; That holds true for those who want to keep him as president and those who don’t. (This article is accessible to all.)

After a detailed analysis of polls—including polling regarding potential replacement candidates, Bump concludes that polls provide no basis for suggesting that replacing Biden would increase or decrease Democratic chances of success in 2024. Bump recognizes that the race is close, as does FiveThirtyEight.com.

More calls for Biden to withdraw as nominee. Even though the presidential race is effectively tied, Democratic Party leaders continue to call for Biden to step aside. Rep. Adam Schiff confirmed to the Los Angeles Times the comments he made in a private fundraiser on Monday. While I strongly disagree with Rep. Schiff’s comments and conclusion, he had the decency to make his position public. Not so with Senator Schumer and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries.

Per the NYTimes, both Schumer and Jeffries met privately with President Biden over the weekend to urge him to withdraw. Although the meetings were private, the details of the meetings managed to make their way onto the front pages of the NYTimes. How did that happen? The most reasonable inference is that Schumer and Jeffries (or their staffs) leaked the details to the New York Times.

Continued leaks aren’t fair, and they are damaging to President Biden and other Democrats. While I strongly disagree with Adam Schiff, Democratic leaders owe their constituents candor and transparency. If they are going to leak the details to the NYTimes—as did Schumer and Jeffries—they should make their statements publicly so that their constituents can let their representatives know how they feel.

Commentary from Rebecca Solnit. Rebecca Solnit of The Guardian has weighed in on the debate with her article, It’s the Pundits Who Have Turned on Biden, Not the Party.

It is an editorial choice to speculate on what Biden’s health will be like in four years rather than what the health of the country will be if he and Harris do not win four months from now. To state the obvious, insisting over and over and over that a candidate is weak and cannot win weakens them and makes it less likely they will win.

A number of polls and studies show that the debate itself had very little impact on the race. But the two weeks of pundit panic have [had an effect]. [¶]

In other words, it was not the party itself but the punditocracy that had turned on Biden. Many of them insisted Biden had to prove his competence and energy after the debate, but have had little to say about his many campaign appearances, commanding NATO address Tuesday, praise from world leaders at the NATO summit, long press conference on foreign policy Thursday and energetic campaign rally in Detroit on Friday.

Commentary from Bernie Sanders. It is worth noting that the progressive wing of the Democratic Party has been supportive of President Biden. Bernie Sanders penned an op-ed over the weekend that strongly endorsed President Biden, writing in part:

I will do all that I can to see that President Biden is re-elected. Why? Despite my disagreements with him on particular issues, he has been the most effective president in the modern history of our country and is the strongest candidate to defeat Mr. Trump — a demagogue and pathological liar. It’s time to learn a lesson from the progressive and centrist forces in France who, despite profound political differences, came together this week to soundly defeat right-wing extremism.

Virtual roll call of delegates. The Democratic Party is scheduled to complete a “virtual roll call” of delegates that was set before the debate to respond to the ballot certification deadline in Ohio. Although that deadline has been extended, the legislation extending the deadline contained “poison pill” provisions that attempt to eliminate constitutional rights of “green card holders” to participate donate to political causes. The DNC agreed with Ohio activists not to condone the poison pill provisions by accepting the extension. See David Pepper, No Good Deed... - by David Pepper - Pepperspectives.

Call for civility. Although this newsletter isn’t about me, the entire debate over Joe Biden has been personally disappointing. Why? Because hundreds of readers have attacked and insulted me for supporting Joe Biden. As I have explained to them, insulting or offending someone is not an effective way to change their minds. When this period is behind us—whatever the outcome—each side must work together to elect the Democratic nominee.

For example, in an email I received today, a now former reader wrote that I was “facilitating the institution of a fascist regime” by supporting Joe Biden. That kind of attack isn’t helpful. I am acting on my beliefs to re-elect the sitting president and presumptive nominee, and I am working to elect other Democrats up and down the ballot.

It is incomprehensible to me that anyone would believe that demeaning or criticizing people who are acting in good faith is appropriate or helpful--especially when help from those being attacked will be essential if there is a replacement candidate. And yet, such criticism is everywhere in the media—suggesting that people who are supporting a sitting president and presumptive nominee are “the problem.” We are not; we are seeking to protect democracy in the best way we see fit.

So, to those who want to replace Joe Biden, please don’t attack those who support him. It is wrong; it is counterproductive; and it is destructive to the Democratic unity that will be necessary to defeat Trump. We are all on the same side; we all seek the same result; we disagree only on strategy.

The “horse race” logical fallacy. I believe that the current intra-party disagreement is a consequence of the “horse race” fallacy. In most presidential elections, the choice is almost exclusively between the two candidates. Not this year. In 2024, democracy is on the ballot, reproductive liberty is on the ballot, the Supreme Court is on the ballot, gun safety is on the ballot, same sex marriage in on the ballot, Social Security is on the ballot, national security is on the ballot, the climate crisis is on the ballot, and Black voting rights are on the ballot.

If you disregard all the above issues, then it is easy to convince yourself that the nominee makes all the difference. But voters—especially women, LGBTQ people, and Black voters—understand that their rights and liberties are under attack. While a strong minority of Americans will vote based on their identification with white Christian nationalism, most Americans will vote their interests on the issues listed above. That phenomenon is not being identified by pollsters who frame “horse race” questions to survey respondents.

Alerting Americans to the unprecedented issues-driven nature of the 2024 election is the primary task for grassroots organizations and party officials alike. On Tuesday of this week, Red Wine & Blue hosted a phenomenally successful event with Heather Cox Richardson and 35,000 attendees that focused on the threat of Project 2025. Red Wine & Blue has produced an incredibly helpful and informative “tool kit” for explaining the dangers of Project 2025. See Project 2025 Toolkit | Red Wine & Blue. I urge you to check out this helpful resource!

The 2024 election isn’t about Biden v. Trump. It is about different visions of America as highlighted by the dark vision of Project 2025. Anyone who tries to reduce the 2024 election to a “Biden v. Trump” horserace is selling the American people short. 2024 isn’t a horserace. It is about fundamentally different versions of America.

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Opportunities for Reader engagement

Fundraiser for Joe Biden with Robert Hubbell and Virginia McGregor

Final chance to register!  I will host a Today’s Edition reader fundraiser for Joe Biden on Thursday, July 18, 2024, at 8:00 p.m. Eastern /5:00 p.m. Pacific.

Click here to sign up for Today's Edition Fundraiser for Joe Biden

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31st Street Swing Left’s fundraiser supporting the PA and NC

Support Pennsylvania and NC State Legislatures to Help Dems Up and Down the Ballot.  Legislatures are so important in and of themselves. Think abortion, gerrymandering and gun safety, just for a start.

And strong legislature candidates will do the ground work and bring out voters to vote for Democrats up-ballot, for the state-wide ticket - notably 19 crucial electoral college votes in PA and 16 in NC.

Please join 31st Street Swing Left’s fundraiser supporting the PA and NC slates, Wednesday, July 24 at 7p.m ET.   We’ve selected slates of 7 truly marvelous, competent and hardworking candidates in each State that will make the difference.

31st Street Swing Left is an all-volunteer organization dedicated to electing Democrats, up and down the ballot, through persistence and precision.

Here is the link to register for this free event. And here is the link to donate to our PA slate.  and here is the link to donate to our NC slate.

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Concluding Thoughts

I will return to regular programming in Thursday’s newsletter. There is much to discuss about the MAGA white nationalist ticket of Trump and Vance. Democrats have a strategic opening and should be able to use the choice of JD Vance to drive home the stark differences between the GOP and Democratic tickets. And does anyone else think it is suspicious that Trump selected the most pro-Russian, anti-Ukrainian choice possible? As Nancy Pelosi said, “With Trump, it’s always the Russians.”

This has been a rough patch, but we are going to make it through, no matter what. If we keep our heads down and remain focused on electing Democrats up and down the ballot, we will be doing everything we should be doing to defend and preserve democracy. When all of this is sorted out, we will need to be able to look ourselves in the mirror and say, “Did I do my part when my country needed me?” The answer must be an unqualified, enthusiastic “Yes!”

Talk to you tomorrow!

Postcript: Below is an image of the Whirlpool Galaxy (M51) I took as I was writing this newsletter. I promise not to convert the newsletter into an astronomy blog, but the subject matter over the last three weeks has been so intense I take breaks while writing the newsletter to look up at the stars.

The Whirlpool Galaxy is 23 million light years from our galaxy and is 38,000 light years wide. It collided with the smaller galaxy (NGC 5195) about 600 million years ago. Exposure time: 40 minutes, Los Angeles, CA.