Indictment season.

July 19, 2023

          On Tuesday, July 18, 2023, Americans learned that special counsel Jack Smith will likely indict Donald Trump for attempting to overturn the 2020 election. (Trump announced that he received a “target letter” on Sunday evening.) Separately, the Attorney General of Michigan Dana Nessel announced the indictment of sixteen Michigan residents who falsely claimed they were the duly selected presidential electors for the state of Michigan. And it is a virtual certainty that Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis will secure indictments within a month against Trump and a dozen co-conspirators for attempting to overturn the 2020 presidential vote in Georgia. By any reckoning, Trump and his close advisors are in serious legal jeopardy.

          For Trump, it is likely that he will exit the summer of 2023 as a defendant in four criminal proceedings (Manhattan hush money, Florida retention of defense secrets, D.C.-based federal prosecution for attempting to overturn the 2020 election, and a Georgia-based prosecution by Fani Willis for attempting to overturn the 2020 Georgia presidential election). In addition, Trump is a defendant in a second civil defamation case brought by E. Jean Carroll arising from Trump's sexual abuse of Carroll in 1996.

          In a rational democracy, a single investigation or allegation of sexual abuse would disqualify a presidential candidate. But Trump has so distorted the GOP moral compass that four indictments and a civil judgment of $5 million for sexual abuse will serve only to drive his favorability ratings and fundraising to new heights. Of course, that support and money is coming from his cultish base that will stick by him no matter what. Meanwhile, some Democrats and Independents cannot forgive Joe Biden for being president when a global pandemic caused inflation.

          Special counsel Jack Smith and his staff deserve tremendous credit for moving quickly to gather the evidence necessary to arrive at a conclusion on the existence of probable cause to indict Trump. Likewise, the January 6th Special Committee laid the groundwork for the indictments by Jack Smith, Fani Willis, and the Michigan Attorney General. And we should not underestimate the courage it took for the Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel to proceed with an indictment before the DOJ sought an indictment against fake electors.

          So, given the likely issuance of at least two more indictments against Trump in July, what now? Do the pending and future indictments change anything for Democrats and other Americans seeking a return to the rule of law?

          Short answer: No.

          Longer answer: No—at least insofar as those indictments relate to the 2024 presidential election.

          But the indictments do change things for those hoping that the DOJ would finally rise to defend the Constitution. Set aside for a moment the delay and the need for a special counsel to pick up the pace of the investigations. It is unqualified good news that indictments are forthcoming relating to Trump's efforts to overturn the election.

          Will the overlap between criminal prosecutions and the election complicate the political landscape? You betcha! But here we are. There is no upside in bemoaning missed opportunities. The best we can do at this point is to separate the legal and political tracks. In particular, we must resist the urge to analyze the political impact of Judge Cannon’s every indecision, delay, or biased decision in favor of Trump. In the end, Trump will face a jury on charges of unlawfully retaining defense secrets—unless he becomes president first.

          All that matters is that we prevent Trump (or a surrogate) from winning the 2024 presidential election. That is a tall order that is becoming taller by the day—not because Trump is becoming a more formidable candidate (he is not) but because MAGA extremists have figured out that some Democrats and Independents are willing to support a third-party candidate in a misguided effort to express their frustration over the state of American politics.

          We must exhibit the same single-minded discipline in supporting President Biden that MAGA extremists are demonstrating in supporting a candidate facing four criminal indictments. Two days ago, I exhorted readers not to support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. because of his delusional conspiracy theories that serve as a breeding ground for antisemitism. Most readers responded as one would expect—by agreeing that support for RFK Jr. is the equivalent of support for Trump.

          But, to my surprise, a handful a readers sent notes “reserving judgment” to see which Democratic candidate would “stand up to Big Pharma” or “demonstrate a willingness to take immediate action to protect the environment.” Of course, Joe Biden has already done both—to a degree that surpasses every other president in US history. And yet that record of achievement is (ostensibly) “not enough” for some Democrats who are looking for an excuse not to support Joe Biden.

          We do not have the luxury of demanding perfection from Joe Biden before granting him our vote. He cannot be everything to everyone and still run the nation better than any president in a generation (at least). If a GOP candidate burdened with four indictments, two impeachments, and a multi-million dollar civil judgment for sexual abuse can command near unanimous support among the Republican faithful, we must be able to clear that bar for Joe Biden.

          The legal landscape relating to Trump is in constant flux. Wanting to understand the details of what is happening is understandable and healthy—until it is not. As noted above, the legal system is no substitute for defeating Trump at the polls. If you are interested in the details of the most recent developments, the source documents (or reliable secondary sources) are below:

The ”target letter” to Trump.

          Rolling Stone Magazine published an exclusive report on the content of the target letter from special counsel Jack Smith to Trump. See Trump Target Letter Over Jan. 6 Mentions Conspiracy, Tampering – Rolling Stone.

          Per Rolling Stone,

The letter mentions three federal statutes: Conspiracy to commit offense or to defraud the United States; deprivation of rights under color of law; and tampering with a witness, victim, or an informant. It does not offer further details, nor does it detail how the special counsel believes Trump may have violated the statutes, the source tells Rolling Stone.

The letter does not mention statutes on sedition or insurrection, according to the source. Trump is the only person named in the letter, the source says.

          The above description (if true) suggests that Jack Smith is focused on Trump's role in interfering in the 2020 electoral count and efforts to cover up that scheme by telling a witness to lie. Such an indictment would be narrow and capable of being tried before November 2024. Per Rolling Stone,

The source said the statutes listed likely refer to the prosecutor’s interest in charging Trump with obstructing the election certification process, including Trump efforts to pressure Mike Pence to stop the certification of President Biden’s 2020 victory.

Indictment of Michigan fake electors.

          The indictment of 16 Michigan residents by the Michigan Attorney General may be covering the same ground Jack Smith is investigating. But states can charge defendants for violating state law based on the same conduct that gives rise to a federal crime. The charging documents are here: Felony Complaints Redacted combined (michigan.gov). Per the Michigan AG press release,

Each defendant has been charged with:

• One count of Conspiracy to Commit Forgery, a 14-year felony,

• Two counts of Forgery, a 14-year felony,

• One count of Conspiracy to Commit Uttering and Publishing, a 14-year felony,

• One count of Uttering and Publishing, a 14-year felony,

• One count of Conspiracy to Commit Election Law Forgery, a 5-year felony, and,

• Two counts of Election Law Forgery, a 5-year felony.

          Most of the defendants are in their 60s and 70s; one is 81 years old and another is 82. Donald Trump has put them in the position of possibly spending the rest of their lives in prison. Such a lengthy sentence is unlikely, but the defendants cannot be sure as they go to sleep tonight. But remember, they were willing to interfere with the peaceful transfer of power for the first time in our nation’s history. A potential life sentence is warranted.

Hearing on trial date in unlawful retention of defense secrets case.

          Judge Aileen Cannon listened to oral argument on Tuesday regarding the schedule for a trial in the unlawful retention of defense secrets case. Although Cannon seemed to support setting a trial date, she was overly solicitous of Trump's arguments that he needed time to review “a million” documents. That argument is nonsense and Cannon should have slapped it down. That she did not is the first worrisome sign of her inexperience in handling major litigation.

          The indictment charges the unlawful retention of less than two dozen documents. The fact that Trump removed thousands of additional documents from the White House is not grounds to delay the trial. Moreover, loose talk about “a million documents” is most likely a reference to a million pages of documents, which is likely about 100,000 documents, many of which can be deemed irrelevant on sight (menus, newspaper articles, Big Mac wrappers, underwear).

          So, Trump's whining that he needs more time to prepare should have been dismissed by an experienced federal judge. The best Cannon could muster was to reject Trump's claim for an indefinite delay. See Judge in classified docs case appears skeptical of Trump's argument for indefinite delay - ABC News.

The Fulton County investigation.

          The Georgia Supreme Court rejected out of hand Trump's request to disqualify Fani Willis from prosecuting Trump and for an order preventing a current grand jury from using evidence collected by a special grand jury earlier in the summer. See Georgia Supreme Court dismisses Trump bid to shut down Fulton County probe | CNN Politics.

          The decision rejecting Trump’s request for relief was unanimous. Eight of the nine justices who voted against Trump were appointed by Republican governors.

          D.A. Willis had previously alerted law enforcement to staff up for potential protection after an indictment to be issued between July 11 and September 1, 2023. We are now one week passed the earliest date mentioned by Willis—with six weeks to go.

Join an event for Virginia 2023 elections.

          Everyone is rightly anxious about the election in Ohio on August 8th in which Republicans have promoted cynical constitutional amendment to make it more difficult for the people of Ohio to include protections for reproductive liberty in the Ohio constitution. Remember VOTE NO on Issue No. 1 on the August 8th ballot in Ohio.

          But . . . there are elections coming up in Virginia in 2023 that could have a major impact on the presidential election in 2024. Longtime reader Sarah O. sent the following note:

Join a Zoom on Monday, July 24th at 6:30pm ET for a great preview of Virginia 2023. 

Senator Tim Kaine will moderate a discussion with leaders from both statehouses. Then we will hear from a handful of the most exciting and vulnerable frontline candidates. RSVP HERE and help right away by sharing the link with friends and family. There is no contribution required to attend. (But if you want to support winning majorities in both VA statehouses, the co-hosts are listed with links at same link as above—and any donations made to one of The States Project Giving Circles/co-hosts listed will be MATCHED up to $1,000 until 100K match funds run out.)

Remember, Virginia is a purple state. The stakes are high. Majorities in both VA statehouses are slim. Our 2-seat majority in the VA State Senate is what is stopping Youngkin's destructive agenda—for now. A red trifecta will immediately ban abortion, make it harder to vote, soften gun laws, weaken civil rights, further isolate LGBTQ youth, and more, in their first week. Millions of women in southern states are now depending on Virginia for abortion care that is now outlawed in their home states. A blue Virginia will make the world a better place, immediately, and for the 2024 elections.

Concluding Thoughts.

          People often ask me how I can write a newsletter every day. I frequently reply, “Sleep deprivation.” Today, that flippant reply is true. We arrived home close to 3 AM from our night of observing at the Mount Wilson Observatory (a few pictures below). My wife and I then attended one granddaughter’s swimming lesson at 9:00 AM and babysat for another granddaughter from 4:00 to 6:30 PM. In between, I spent a couple of hours with a solar installation company answering the same questions about the spacing of my rafters, age of roof, attic space etc. that I have answered three times already! If today’s newsletter does not make sense in places, it is possible that I wrote long passages while I was asleep at the computer. (It is a talent I learned in law school.) My wife also posted video of our trip on her blog, A Visit to Mount Wilson and the One Hundred Inch Hooker Telescope (everydaywithjill.com)

          The US passed a momentous milestone last week. For the first time since 2020, the US death rate returned to “normal”—i.e., there were no “excess deaths” due to Covid-19 (or other causes). See A Positive Covid Milestone - The New York Times.

          It may seem like ages ago, but the nation endured excess death rates between 10% and 30% higher than average—a stunning increase. More than a million Americans died during the Covid pandemic. We endured significant restrictions on travel, work, shopping, family events like weddings and funerals, and we learned to learn and socialize online. The pandemic reshaped America (and the world) in ways that will take decades to understand.

          But here is the most important point: We survived, endured, and thrived. We should be proud of ourselves, but we must never forget the loss of a million Americans—even on a day when we can finally celebrate the good news of a return to normalcy.

          Talk to you tomorrow!

Similar to the photo I published last night, but I figured out how to selectively remove the red lighting from objects using Adobe Lightroom. Here, I isolated the telescope truss and removed the red lighting to highlight the telescope. The observatory dome is dimly lit with red light to preserve night vision, but the dim light bathes long-exposure pictures in red.

A black and white photo of the Hooker 100” telescope hints at the complexity and drama of the telescope and dome during a late-night observing session.

The century-old gears and ladders that are still used to operate the telescope dome today.

My Managing Editor (and astronomy underwriter) standing near the ancient controls that once drove the telescope (now supplemented with computers and software).