Ignore the polls!

April 24, 2023

          Sigh. It has started already. Over the weekend, the first polls emerged showing head-to-head comparisons of Biden and Trump in 2024. Of course, both candidates have historically low favorability ratings. Predictably, pundits are wringing their hands over Biden’s low numbers but seem not to evince the same concern for Trump’s weak showing.

          We have been through this charade before—most recently in 2022 when we learned that presidential favorability ratings were little more than clickbait. Not only were the polls wrong, but they were also intentionally misleading. Republicans realized they could skew the polling averages by releasing lots of low-quality polls that were accepted by aggregators, thus creating disinformation about the state of the midterm races.

          Worse, concentrating exclusively on presidential favorability ratings as a surrogate for voter sentiment is like asking whether passengers would prefer a starboard cabin on the Titanic or a portside cabin on the QEII. While the views would be different on a trans-Atlantic crossing, the outcomes are not comparable. No voter is going to walk into a voting booth in 2024 believing the choice is “Biden” versus “Trump.” It is democracy versus autocracy, liberty versus tyranny, safety versus violence, tolerance versus fascism, and secularism versus theocracy. Reducing the 2024 election to the traditional presidential “horserace” is a fool’s game.

          We are in for a long slog of polling over the next eighteen months. We should resolve now not to be distracted, seduced, or misled by polling. We have learned the hard way that polls are blunt instruments when it comes to predicting electoral outcomes. They are better suited for refining messages and targeting persuadable voters.

          When Biden announces his bid for re-election this week, expect the media to respond with a swarm of easy-to-write, shallow analyses that point out obvious facts while glossing over yawning chasms of significance. Any journalist who treats the Biden/Trump rematch as a traditional presidential election should turn in their press badge and seek other work.

          There are, of course, idiosyncratic factors that challenge both candidates. With any luck, Trump will be fighting three criminal indictments going into 2024 and will likely be forced into advocating a national abortion ban. But Biden will be dogged by questions about his age no matter how well he performs. While I wish it were otherwise, it is a special burden that Biden must accept and overcome.

          So, ignore the noise this week and focus on the substance of Biden’s accomplishments. Speaking of Biden’s accomplishments, read on!

EPA proposes first-ever restrictions on greenhouse gases from power plants.

          Per the NYTimes, the Biden administration is set to propose a sweeping reform regarding greenhouse gas emissions from power plants. It is bold move that will undoubtedly be challenged in court but is the type of action necessary to restrain runaway global warming. See NYTimes, E.P.A. to Propose First Controls on Greenhouse Gases From Power Plant. Per the Times,

If implemented, the proposed regulation would be the first time the federal government has restricted carbon dioxide emissions from existing power plants, which generate about 25 percent of the planet-warming pollution produced by the United States. It would also apply to future plants.

Almost all coal and gas-fired power plants would have to cut or capture nearly all of their carbon dioxide emissions by 2040, according to the people familiar with the regulation, who asked not to be identified because the rule has not been made public.

           The regulation would be a major step forward in the effort to reduce carbon emissions. As always, keep your eye on Jessica Craven’s Chop Wood, Carry Water for guidance on how to lobby your representatives and government officials to support the forthcoming regulation!

A new GOP agenda item: legalizing child labor.

          The Washington Post published an important report on efforts by a Republican think tank to expand child labor in red states. See The Washington Post, The conservative campaign to rewrite child labor law. The Post reports that the GOP group--Foundation for Government Accountability—is providing model legislation for legislatures controlled by Republicans. The template provides for children as young as 14 to work on night shifts while allowing 15-year-olds to work on assembly lines.

          Arkansas has already enacted the legislation. Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio, Georgia, and Missouri are in the process of eliminating existing restrictions on child labor. Why are Republicans intent on making it easier to exploit child labor? Per WaPo,

The [Foundation for Government Accountability] frames its child worker bills as part of a larger debate surrounding parental rights, including in education and child care. But the state-by-state campaigns, the group’s leader said, help the FGA create openings to deconstruct larger government regulations.

          Got that? Republicans believe that “parental rights” extend to forcing children to work night shifts and on assembly lines. The real goal is to “deconstruct the administrative” state—which does pesky things like trying to prevent children from being exploited in the labor markets. Biden versus Trump? Or protecting our children versus forced child labor?

Follow up on Justice Alito’s dissent.

          In my brief weekend note, I described Justice Alito’s dissent in the US Supreme Court’s mifepristone order as part of “his descent into terminal crankiness” that “belittles the medical necessity of mifepristone and women’s rights to healthcare.” With the benefit of reflection, others have pointed out the alarming attack by Alito on the federal government. In his opinion, Alito said that

the Government has not dispelled legitimate doubts that it would even obey an unfavorable order in these cases, much less that it would choose to take enforcement actions to which it has strong objections.

          In other words, Alito posits that the federal government would simply ignore an order by the Supreme Court revoking the approval of mifepristone. Alito cites no authority for those “doubts” nor does he describe why those suspicions about the government’s response have the aura of “legitimacy””

          Alito has wandered into the territory of conspiracy theories being traded on the internet. As Jennifer Rubin writes in her op-ed, The Supreme Court delivers a sigh of relief — and an outrageous dissent,

The opinion is so lacking in judicial reason and tone that Supreme Court advocates and constitutional experts with whom I spoke were practically slack-jawed.

          Someone needs to do a wellness check on Justice Alito—for his own good and that of the Court and the nation. If only Chief Justice John Roberts viewed his role as something more than a ceremonial title, he would be person to take the lead. But there is little hope that he will act in this matter—given that he has punted on the investigation into Justice Thomas.

Justice Roberts declines to act on Justice Thomas.

          Senate Judiciary Chairman Dick Durbin wrote to Chief Justice Roberts asking him to investigate Justice Clarence Thomas’s failure to report financial relationships with Harlan Crow. In response to his letter, Senator Durbin received a letter from the US Judicial Conference, stating,

I write in response to the letter of April 10, 2023, from you and other members of the Senate Judiciary Committee to the Chief Justice of the United States, which has been referred to me.

          In other words, Chief Justice Roberts merely forwarded Durbin’s letter to the US Judicial Conference for response to Durbin. That would be the same Chief Justice Roberts who spent over $1 million investigating a leak of the Dobbs opinion and who cannot be bothered to investigate what appear to be clear violations of criminal law by Justice Thomas. Coward.

          See Chief Justice John Roberts punts on request to investigate Clarence Thomas | CNN Politics.

Pro Publica report on corporations funding Republican Attorneys General organization that backed “Stop the Steal” efforts.

Corporations are again funding the Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA)—which backed Trump’s election fraud claims and sent “robocalls” urging “patriots” to show up at the Capitol on January 6^th . Many major corporations suspended financial support for RAGA after January 6^th—but most are back supporting RAGA in 2023. See Pro Publica, Amazon, Walmart Giving to Republican AGs Group Again.

          The article lists a dozen major corporations that are once again seeking to buy access to GOP attorneys general by making donations to RAGA, including Comcast, Amazon, Walmart, Visa, Capital One, MasterCard, Intuit, Walgreens, General Motors, Altria, Home Depot, and JPMorgan Chase’s PAC.

          Next time you speak to a customer service representative for one of the above organizations, tell them how you feel about their efforts to fund an organization that backed the “Stop the Steal” efforts in 2020.

Twitter has unleashed state propaganda from Russia, China, and Iran.

          Before Elon Musk bought Twitter, it attempted to throttle state-sponsored propaganda by China, Russia, and Iran. But, as reported by NPR, Twitter has apparently reversed that policy, resulting in a dramatic uptick in traffic from state-sponsored propaganda from China, Russia, and Iran. See NPR, Twitter once muzzled Russian and Chinese state propaganda. That’s over now.

          The NPR article includes three charts that dramatically highlight the increase in followers to those state-sponsored accounts—presumably because Twitter’s algorithm is recommending those accounts in the “Recommended for You” feature. While Twitter is unshackling Russia, China, and Iran, it began labeling NPR as a “state affiliate” organization—even though NPR receives less than 1% of its funding from the federal government. See NPR, NPR quits Twitter after being falsely labeled as a 'state-affiliated media'.

         Twitter’s “blue check” verification system is a slow-motion train wreck, so it is difficult to confirm that you are receiving information from reliable sources. See CNN, Twitter descends into chaos as news outlets and brands lose verification. So, if you get your news from Twitter, be more diligent than ever in looking for fake accounts spreading disinformation.

Concluding Thoughts.

          For everyone anxious about President Biden’s age and abilities, remember two months ago when he outmaneuvered Republicans in real-time during the State of the Union address? No president had ever achieved a legislative victory during a speech to a joint session of Congress. Joe Biden did. Republicans are no longer talking about cuts to Medicare and Social Security because Biden turned their heckling into applause for the program. Doing that on a nationally televised address was a remarkable accomplishment.

          As I said, Biden will have the unfair disadvantage of continuously proving during the 2024 campaign that he is up to the task in a way that his unhinged opponent will not be asked to do. That’s okay. Every indication is that Biden is up to the task, and more. And the more Trump talks, the more it will become apparent that Trump is the one who is mentally unfit to occupy the Oval Office. So, let’s relax and let Biden do what he does—gaffes and all.

          Talk to you tomorrow!