Robert, if you did not exist, someone would have to invent you. Always a bright light through the fog of the day's news, and a calm voice among the turbulence. Thank you, again! Now, as for me, I am going to repeat what I have said before: It's time to leave (or ignore) the Chicken Little Caucus and the Nothing-Can-Be-Done Club. There is much work to be done, and concentrating on worry and fear will only distract us. Let's remember that truth always catches up with and passes the lie, because it is--after all--true. Our job is to keep speaking the truth (even when it hurts) loudly enough for the truth to pass the lie before Election Day next year. Oh, and also giving money to help the good folks.
I know it's last minute but if you have some time and want to make some "get out the vote" calls to VA (SO important!) here's an event with Brian Tyler Cohen. Zoom + training + autodial. I get so nervous (not about the people but about the technology!) but the young trainers are very good!
And I have to know I did all I can to protect democracy in VA! (And we get to meet Brian!)
One nit: Trump is an idiot whether or not (not just if) he testifies in the criminal trial in Judge Chutkan's courtroom. He is an idiot if he testifies in any of the cases against him. Indeed, he is simply an idiot.
There are so many words that come to mind to describe this orange plague, but we don’t need to repeat them all here. With Trump being an idiot, he’s in great company with all these unhinged lawyers who choose to represent him.
You are correct that the former guy's lawyers will not get away with their behavior in federal court, but I don't think it's really a difference of formal vs. less formal in the two venues. First, since the fraud case is a non-jury, civil trial (as opposed to a criminal trial before a jury) Justice Engoron is not as concerned with perception and the pace of the case as he would be if it were before a jury. Speaking objections are not allowed when there is a jury; there would be sidebars, out of the jury's presence. Justice Engoron is the trier of fact and he can sift through the evidence in ways that laypersons on a jury may not be able to do. He is also cognizant of trying to eliminate issues for appeal. In some ways, he is almost treating the former guy as a pro se (self-represented) litigant by allowing some of the rambling answers. Also, without getting too into the weeds or into his head, often when a judge has an idea where a case is headed, the judge tends to be more lenient with the side that is not likely to prevail, again, thinking ahead to the appeal. And it's already clear where this is going . . . .
Thank you. It comes from experience. I served for 10 years as a principal law clerk for another respected jurist, in the same courthouse, and then served as a referee for 11 years, conducting bench trials and hearings.
Please stop with the Biden is too old to run again nonsense! Rick Wilson's Substack pleads the case for Biden with one of the best messages I have read. Long, yes, but well worth your time to read. https://therickwilson.substack.com/p/joe-biden-for-president
As Rick Wilson says, "We're doing good, and feeling awful" - we need to stop the hand-wringing and stick to the business at hand. Nothing like an ex-Repub to call out our vacillations and remind us to get that shoulder against the wheel and push harder. We have to win this round, and flush out the bile that was once the GOP; when the ship's under attack is not the time to entertain fantasies of a cleaner victory. Time enough for that when the smoke clears and the battle is won. Our captain is proving to be a great leader, and we need to support his success by rising to this occasion, without a lot of grumbling in the foc'sle.
The one line that stuck with me is "Biden is a Centrist" mostly because it is correct.
The hatred for Biden has long baffled me.
While I did not agree with the sentiments, I understood where the pushback on Hillary, Obama and others came from
The MAGA World hatred of Biden is just bonkers .From "the Biden crime family" to "he's a communist" (as in an actual communist!) to "he's old and drooling" none of it seems even vaguelly rooted in anything resembling reality.
But at a time when the US generally seems to be doing okay, especially vis a vis the rest of the world (economically anyway) the extreme hatred and "worst president ever!" chorus is really baffling.
However, as you noted, “The MAGA World hatred of Biden is just bonkers. From "the Biden crime family" to "he's a communist" (as in an actual communist!) to "he's old and drooling" none of it seems even vaguelly rooted in anything resembling reality.”
That may describe some MAGA-ites. But I suspect that a lot is something different – intentional propaganda: if one throws excrement against the wall, some of it may stick.
To the extent ghat it’s the latter, Democratic operatives and their allies could craft counter-propaganda, highlighting the statements and then *ridiculing* them.
Yes-- those opinions don't spring from the ether--they are planted there, either by people like Bannon and his minions or by enemies of the US (Iran, China, Russia) or some combinatoin thereof.
You can see it in the way the WSJ Editorial pages and other right wing media conflate the rantings of a handful of radical left wing academics and "activists" to "the Democrat party" (they never use it "ic" at the end)--but ask "well, which elected Democrats have said that?" and they have no answer.
It is baffling to say the least… Biden has done so much for the middle and working class, for the economy, and for democracy that all states but especially red states have benefited from… and Trump did nothing for anyone but the wealthy.
Annette, I agree! Rick Wilson and the Lincoln Project (whatever negative reviews they received in the past) are doing a better job of promoting President Biden than almost any other entity out there. I follow his Substack also, and I thought this essay he wrote was excellent. And you have to remember that this is a man who spent his life until 2016 working to defeat Democrats. They are producing the kind of vicious attack ads against Trump that the Democrats aren’t really great at doing, so it’s good to have this guy on our side.
Wow! I love this piece! I'm so glad you sent the link. "We're doing good and feeling awful!"
I guess it's our choice whether to feel awful or not. I feel scared, but every morning I get a shot of hope which carries me through the day - most of the time.
The MSM covers the news the same way FleeceBlock's algorithm operates: anger, outrage and upset among readers attract eyeballs and clicks. Plus most of the unemployables haven't got the brains to find their ass with both hands on a clear day with a two hour advance notice.
“Unemployables” reminds me of Hillary Clinton’s infamous “deplorables”, a haughty term that unquestionably cost her votes and possibly the 2016 election.
A major factor in working class hostility to Democrats appears to be their widespread perception that Democrats look down on them and scorn them: So they repay the scorn at the ballot box and voting machines.
If memory serves, it was some six weeks ago when political analyst Simon Rosenberg stated, here I’m paraphrasing, that, as important as it is for Democrats to flip the VA State House and hold the Senate, the larger issue is the necessity that Republican losses serve to repudiate Governor Glenn Youngkin (Mike Johnson's doppelgänger, in my view), whom Republican elites are eyeing as VP pick to add legitimacy (indeed, purported) to the Trump ticket. I explicitly recall Rosenberg stating he was confident about 24, save this one concern, and can affirm unequivocally that no one has done more than Rosenberg to galvanize her or his followers over the past couple of months to deliver for Virginia.
Though all we can do now, aside from helping to cure ballots, as warranted, is wait for returns, I thought it worth spreading the word that Rosenberg, to the best of my memory, stated that the 23 Virginia state election would be among the most important in 23 and 24. If Democrats do well, we move on. But, if not, we must be vigilant as to Glenn Youngkin’s subsequent plans.
There is no escaping the truth that a lot of Democrats, including young ones, want a younger person to run for President in 2024, and it's not Kamala Harris. I wish Biden would announce that he is done and step aside. Putting the polls aside, the stakes are too high and we are at grave risk to ignore Biden's age as a huge risk factor. Biden needs to do what he has always done: put America ahead of himself. He's been a great President, but we have to recognize that the time has come to pass the baton. We need new energy in our party. Maybe Gavin Newsom, whom I personally don't like (and I'm a liberal Californian), but he's smart and charismatic. Or some other younger and smart and articulate Democrat. Just not an old man. We have to confront that truth, and quickly.
Sorry, but these conversations about someone else are a distraction. And with two wars and Republicans intent on shutting down the federal government and ending democracy, we can't afford distractions. Joe Biden is the president. He's doing a terrific job. And unless something intervenes, to make that impossible, our job is to help him make the case.
He couldn’t win Texas. As much as I don’t like it, the country isn’t voting for a gay man raising two children. They’ll sooner vote for a brain dead narcissistic sociopath again.
This is a fabulous, though long, article by Rick Wilson. A must-read, I think. When it comes down to the reality of the choice, in the middle of a war (I pray it does not become World War III), the risks to democracy, and all of the other craziness that we are watching happen, I believe the only choice is this man with political experience, the ability to work with sane Republicans, (and some not sane ones), and and who has compassion towards all. I vote for Biden!
I agree. But there is nothing to be gained now by pushing the subject. I didn't vote for Biden in the primary. But he has exceeded my expectations by light years. He shocked me with his comprehensive approach to every aspect of being POTUS. He has gathered around him incredible talent. Blinken and Harris have been terrific. So I am ready to be surprised again by this "old man" who I totally underestimated. Shock me again, Joe. I love it.
Yes, I agree, that Joe should have stepped aside. But it's too late now. And...nothing we are thinking about right now will be that important on November 5, 2024. The two contenders are indeed old. Anything could happen. World events are unfolding right now that we aren't aware of. WWIII may have already begun. What happens when we are in a "big war"? Most of us unite. Please read Diane Francis - link below.
It's not about whether we/you/I would vote for him, but whether enough people will for him to win. Do we want to stick with him even if he loses? That's the question. And it isn't too late for him to decide to step aside.
No, that’s not the only question. The other question is whether a largely unknown Democrat can, after a likely bruising primary campaign, pull the pieces together and beat Trump.
Well, for better or worse, I guess we will find out if this campaign by Dean Phillips even gets off the ground. I’m more worried about it doing greater harm than greater good.
We can't let him lose. Let's look at this slate of elections today and see where we end up. And remember, polls are not reliable this far out. In fact, over the last several elections, polls have been way off.
Please please stop with this panicky discussion. Are you not listening to Robert? Biden is an exceptional President and we need to rise to this occasion to do everything we can to support him!
Yesterday, David Axelrod called on Biden to step aside, so that chorus is growing. I can't shake the feeling that only Biden can beat Trump, though. That said, a lot of that is based on my belief that only Biden can keep the Democratic party from infighting. If he can’t then the point is moot.
Agree but what if a miracle happens and Trump doesn’t run because the Republicans switch horses and steal the election legally with a younger charismatic candidate
People who advocate finding another Democrat to replace Biden are, unwittingly, reconstituting Democrats’ circular firing squad. If Biden is pulled down, there will be a food fight among Democrats; they are likely to approach the 2024 election fragmented, and nursing mutual resentments. Moreover, the Democratic nominee will likely be a person who has no national reputation, and will likely have to play catch-up.
Pulling Biden down will likely be a godsend to Republicans.
Janet, Less than a year out, while I believe it important that we advance our judgements regarding Biden’s viability, I maintain we also advance Plan B in the event Biden stays in the race.
And Plan B is simple: Get out and vote, and take all of your friends with you. We can talk about younger and more attractive non-Harris alternatives in 4 years. One highlight of the second Biden administration will be his appointment of the VP to the Supreme Court.
I'll be interested in what you have to say, because, in politics, the simplest and most straightforward moves are frequently the most effective and delivering a resounding defeat to GOP candidates across the board led by the failed insurrectionist seems about at clear as it can be. Following up by revitalizing the Democratic party and offering candidates at all levels a la BlueMissouri and similar organizations is a painfully obvious and necessary next step.
You can double whatever you're going to say on that score Barbara Jo. The silence from his Cabinet and other potential surrogates has been deafening, very disappointing, and very much contributory to the poor public perception.
Janet, Regardless of how hard one presses for her or his position concerning Biden’s viability, if he stays in the race, we have no choice but to press for a rigorous Plan B.
Biden is perceived as being “ grandfatherly” by many young people and they want a fighter with the same energy and moxie as Trump to punch back. We definitely need a puncher but it has to be someone other than Biden or Harris.
But it would also help if that person started out with national recognition, so (s)he wouldn’t be playing catch-up; and could reunify a badly fragmented Democratic Party so it could conduct an effective campaign; and … ; and … .
And by the way, have “many young [liberal/‘progressive’] people” been raised up to be ageists?
You write, in part, “To be clear, Congress should take action to reduce deficits and the national debt.”
Why oh why oh why oh … do you write such mythology?
The US national debt & deficit are not economic problems. They are only “asserted to be problems” by people & economists who do not understand Modern Money.
I’d expect you of all people to get that.
The US has a sovereign currency, we have a monopoly on creation of dollars. Therefore we can not “run out” of $$$ any more than baseball can run out of runs or football out of touchdowns.
The debt & deficit are purely financial accounting artifacts. If the deficit was $5T, National debt 100T and unemployment was 25% would you say “gack no more government spending until budget is balanced, we must cut spending?”
Of course not. The actual condition of the citizenry is vastly more important than the accounting results of fiscal decisions.
This is not the place to get into the somewhat gnarly details of how the US Treasury works. But in a nutshell, at the Federal level, tax dollars collected are NOT in actuality a constraint on federal spending … as long as there are real physical resources that can be put to work … increasing government spending is a good thing. Such spending generates more demand which puts more people to work.
So please Mr Hubbell, stop with the deficit/debt worry thing.
Excellent, Susan. I would go a bit further and recommend everyone reading this to get an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory. That has surely expanded my understanding of the deficit and the national debt.
All that said, these tax cuts for the richest Americans will never lead to a greater American just a more inequitable one. Cutting funding to the IRS is a major step BACKWARDS.
I, for one, am not so certain that national debt isn’t, or will not be, a problem. It depends, in part, on what fraction of the federal budget has to be devoted to servicing the debt – whether it begins to squeeze out expenditures we’d like the government to make. That, in turn, depends on the economic environment, e.g., whether the economic stimulation becomes inflationary or whether the stimulation is needed to countervail against economic sluggishness.
Since the answer depends on specific circumstances, there is no “set” answer to the issue.
There is exactly ZERO evidence for “crowding out.” That argument is straight outta Chicago School economics aka Markets Uber Alis. To say that for the US, the monopoly controller of the world’s reserve currency, the debt/deficit “might” matter is like saying a mosquito bite on an elephant might matter.
Consider the magnitudes. GDP (the nation’s income), about $30Trillion. The debt, about $35T.
Strip out zeros so numbers are within comprehension:
If your household income was $300,000k, would you worry about a $350,000k mortgage? Or the interest on it?
I’m amused that I’m being accused of following the University of Chicago economics# playbook. I always thought of myself as a Keynes follower (I’m not an economist, but some of my friends are (seriously!)).
My concern was/is that, at some point, payments of interest *on government debt*, which already are a significant fraction of the *government budget*, could interfere with and constrain sensible budgeting and appropriations (I assume that the federal budget will grow slowly, at best).
# In an “earlier life”, my wife was an editor, including for a major economic forecasting firm. She, like Robert Hubbell, used the University of Chicago style guide.
Almost daily, this recurring thought pops up: Your former fellow litigators are shedding tears that you are no longer serving among them. You are a gift that doesn’t stop giving.
Afternoon Robert, Did not mean to be condescending. I apologize. You seem so “up” on so many topics I figured you knew about the Modern Money upheaval in Econo-world. The vast majority of “economists” don’t know much about actually functioning economies. What they know is a “theory” about “the market economy” and when actually existing economies don’t behave as per the models, they don’t change the models, they contend that the economy is “wrong.”
It’s a religion not a “science.”
The mystification is on purpose. Much like the Catholic Church ... mass in Latin so commoners can’t understand/discussion in math do commoners csnt understand.
So again, sorry. I really enjoy your essays & did not mean to be a jerk.
The deliberate, meticulously planned massacre of Oct 7 had one purpose only: lure or entice the Israelis to respond strongly – and the stronger the better. Hamas was not only anticipating a harsh reaction, they were welcoming it, indeed betting on it.
The massacre, the worst pogrom imaginable of October 7 has shaken if not shattered the perception that Israel can guarantee the security of its citizens against all threats from abroad. It is 9/11 on steroids. This has repercussions for Israelis as well as the Jewish community worldwide. Israel has to respond and finish Hamas once and for all. This will lead to an incredible number of civilian casualties on the Palestinian side which in turn will lead to international protests, an isolation of Israel and rising anti-Semitism worldwide.
So far the devilish script of Hamas plays out exactly as planned – in fact it probably exceeds the expectations of Hamas. So we have a Democratic Congresswoman who sides unequivocally with the goal of a terrorist organization (From the River to the See means the annihilation of Israel) and announces that she would like to throw the 2024 election and bring back Trump because President Biden does not play along. Wow! Hamas, the Ajatollahs in Iran,Putin and Trump are high-fiving each other.
I'm not paranoid, nor a conspiracy theorist. I believe that these worldwide demonstrations against Israel are too spontaneous, with too many Palestinian flags, and too much of the same rhetoric not to be a part of the plan by Iran and Hamas.
I want to ask the readers out there what would you do in the following scenario? One of your neighbors raped your wife, shot one of your children, and took some of your other family members hostage? They have done the same to some of your other family members? Wouldn't you want the FBI and police involved? Wouldn't you go after your neighbors with everything you've got? And what would you do if those brutal, unfeeling neighbors of yours told you, the police, and the FBI to back off? Would you give those people who raped and killed your family a break...and they are also determined to rid you of your home, your business, and your other family members in your town? Would you back off? Would you give up while your family suffers and your own life is at risk?
The Israelis have imprisoned the Palestinians for over 50 years in Gaza with occasional "mowing of the grass", Noam Chomsky's description. On the West Bank the Israeli military is supporting settlers who are blatantly stealing Palestinian land and shooting Palestinians who resist them. Hamas and the horrible hatred it espouses didn't spring out of nowhere; it was made in Israel by Israelis.
And I can't speak for you but I'm damn glad I don't have neighbors who are trying to steal my land and thankful for a government who would protect me from them if they decided to. That's just one of the things that the Palestinian citizens of Israel deserve from the Israeli government that they are not getting.
Finally, as I've said many times the US government has no business supporting the apartheid government of Israel.
Michael Tabony conflates Gaza with the West Bank. Gaza was given complete freedom from Israeli control during the mid 1970s: Ariel Sharon’s régime forced *all* Israelis out of Gaza.
So what happened in Gaza was not Israel’s doing.
In what might be described as a civil war between gangs (Hamas and the PLO), Hamas won, forced out the PLO, and set up a dictatorship.
The Gazans were not “imprisoned”. Under Hamas, Gaza *behaved* like enemies (how else should one characterize a group that, militarily unprovoked, launches rockets into Israel?) and are being *isolated* like enemies. That’s self-protection by Israel, not imprisonment.
Moreover, unlike imprisonment, Gazans before October 7th had been permitted to work in Israel and make money; sick Gazans were admitted for treatment in Israeli hospitals.
We need to message 📣 better about the GOP’s push to privatize Medicare. Many older voters don’t believe it will affect them while younger voters are tuned out on the issue.The GOP would love to inject 💉Medicare Reach(initiated by Trump admin ) with steroids.Unfortunately the Biden Admin is not helping, simply renaming the unpopular Medicare Direct Contracting to Medicare Reach.Not even a 🩹band-aid.
I’ve contacted my GOP/ Freedom Caucus Rep many times. Never received a call back except when I contacted about the dangers of Medicare Reach. They do not want this out there about TRADITIONAL MEDICARE !! 📣📣
⬇️
The majority of American seniors choose Traditional Mediacre, which does not allow third-party entities like insurance companies to interfere with the doctor-patient relationship. The REACH program betrays the promise of Traditional Medicare by placing middlemen between seniors and the care they need … and allowing those middlemen to walk away with enormous profits.
-Seniors are enrolled in REACH entities without their full understanding or consent
-The only way for seniors to leave a REACH entity is to find a new primary care doctor
-REACH entities have a financial incentive to restrict seniors’ care and reward investors
Medicare Advantage plans are a cash cow for the insurance companies. A lot of people do not realize that when they go on Medicare Advantage they have disenrolled from Medicare. The money goes to the insurance companies to manage...and the companies are rewarded for more procedures. That's why you see so many ads on TV for MA.
Medicare has saved seniors from going broke. It has enabled seniors to have 2nd homes, RVs, help grandkids with college, and so much more. It is intertwined with the tapestry of our economy. If Medicare goes our economy sinks faster than you can say 1929 stock crash and Covid
Journalism is a tough, tough competitive business. If you are a newspaper, you want to "own" a story, especially if it's a story that could have legs.Your journalists yearn to be the "experts" in the story. Hence we have Nate Cohn and the NYTs poll.
Shame on them. With a highly biased and poorly built participant group the NYTs has made a mockery of their own news standard; "All the news that's fit to print"
I know this is bordering on heretical in this space BUT even taking on board the meaninglessness of polls at this stage, I do feel rattled. I have been enormously surprised and impressed by Biden’s first term; he has been an outstanding president but why oh why run again??? There are so many eligible and capable Dems in the wings. In the face of national disaster we should be fielding someone who looks young and vital. I can’t believe that at his age Biden is stupidly clinging to office. Where are the voices urging him to go while NOW with his legacy in tact.
Hi, Jennifer. I understand your anxiety. Here's the problem: People who want Joe to step aside imagine the perfect candidate replacing him. Spoiler alert: that candidate does not exist. People frequently mention Gavin Newsom. Really? The governor of the most populous, liberal, Democratic state in the union is going to persuade swing voters in a handful of midwestern and southern states to vote Democratic? Maybe. But it is not a given, by any means.
if you really think Joe Biden should step aside, do the hard thing and propose an alternative, rather than force Joe to compete against an imaginary contender.
“Stupidly clinging to office”......you’re seeing something that’s not there. If ever we need a steady hand at the helm it is now and the next 4 years. He doesn’t need to be undermined by his own party.
The circus is in town in New York acting like a civil case against the Trump organization which has already been found guilty of fraud. Trump’s testimony confirmed for me that Trump is floundering and his strategy (the only one he has) is to attack the judicial system and people and make himself seem like the victim. He made a lot of noise and he got a lot of media coverage but did he win the minds of the voters? He looked and seemed pathetic but we can’t take his act for granite. The New York trial was a dress rehearsal for future trials and the federal and state prosecutors must decide when they will finally say “ enough is enough” and take the appropriate actions and sanctions. You and I could never get away with what Trump did yesterday in court. The American voters are waiting patiently to have the hammer fall on Donald Trump and remind him he is not above the law or allowed to denigrate the justice system. Enough is enough.
I don't understand how repubs think cutting Social Security and Medicare is a winning issue, but I also don't understand why Dems have never come out strongly (or at all?) for the very simple solution to Social Security solvency -- eliminate the cap! I deeply resent having to pay FICA tax on every dollar I earn while people who earn much more than I do don't. It's incredibly unfair and just plain dumb to ignore this simple solution to the ongoing problem of Social Security solvency.
I agree with you. To add, there is a professor here at University of Montana from Iran, Dr. Merhdad Kia. He says clearly that Iran is behind Hamas. In addition Hamas and Iranian leaders have been welcomed into Putin's arms recently. He calls Hamas "Peace Assassins." Dr. Kia cannot go back to Iran because he was tried "in abstentia" and will be executed. He goes on to make strong cases that Hamas are not only terrorists they are supported by terrorist regimes, that do not give equal rights to women, LGBTQ, and are murderous. I could go on but it would be redundant.
One more note: I believe there is one person on this blog that is trolling me. He seems to be justifying the genocide of Jews and of Israel.
Robert, if you did not exist, someone would have to invent you. Always a bright light through the fog of the day's news, and a calm voice among the turbulence. Thank you, again! Now, as for me, I am going to repeat what I have said before: It's time to leave (or ignore) the Chicken Little Caucus and the Nothing-Can-Be-Done Club. There is much work to be done, and concentrating on worry and fear will only distract us. Let's remember that truth always catches up with and passes the lie, because it is--after all--true. Our job is to keep speaking the truth (even when it hurts) loudly enough for the truth to pass the lie before Election Day next year. Oh, and also giving money to help the good folks.
Your right Robert is special and I wished we could clone him and make millions of copies but that’s what we are subscribers are for.
Well said, Jon! I'm addicted to the "bright light" of hope I find every day in this newsletter.
I know it's last minute but if you have some time and want to make some "get out the vote" calls to VA (SO important!) here's an event with Brian Tyler Cohen. Zoom + training + autodial. I get so nervous (not about the people but about the technology!) but the young trainers are very good!
And I have to know I did all I can to protect democracy in VA! (And we get to meet Brian!)
Want to join me? You can sign up here!
https://www.mobilize.us/grassrootsdemocratslahq/event/590908/
One nit: Trump is an idiot whether or not (not just if) he testifies in the criminal trial in Judge Chutkan's courtroom. He is an idiot if he testifies in any of the cases against him. Indeed, he is simply an idiot.
But SUCH a dangerous one!
There are so many words that come to mind to describe this orange plague, but we don’t need to repeat them all here. With Trump being an idiot, he’s in great company with all these unhinged lawyers who choose to represent him.
You are correct that the former guy's lawyers will not get away with their behavior in federal court, but I don't think it's really a difference of formal vs. less formal in the two venues. First, since the fraud case is a non-jury, civil trial (as opposed to a criminal trial before a jury) Justice Engoron is not as concerned with perception and the pace of the case as he would be if it were before a jury. Speaking objections are not allowed when there is a jury; there would be sidebars, out of the jury's presence. Justice Engoron is the trier of fact and he can sift through the evidence in ways that laypersons on a jury may not be able to do. He is also cognizant of trying to eliminate issues for appeal. In some ways, he is almost treating the former guy as a pro se (self-represented) litigant by allowing some of the rambling answers. Also, without getting too into the weeds or into his head, often when a judge has an idea where a case is headed, the judge tends to be more lenient with the side that is not likely to prevail, again, thinking ahead to the appeal. And it's already clear where this is going . . . .
Good points!
Brilliant insights, Marilyn. I appreciate your evident expertise re: this court and the peculiarities of a bench trial.
Thank you. It comes from experience. I served for 10 years as a principal law clerk for another respected jurist, in the same courthouse, and then served as a referee for 11 years, conducting bench trials and hearings.
Thanks for your insight & expertise Marilyn.
That experience is coming in very handy right now, Marilyn. Thank you.
Interesting! I feel for that judge, but he gets the last word!
Excellent comment. Thank you!
Excellent points. Just one relatively insignificant thing: Engoron, not Engoren.
Oops. Thanks - I corrected.
You're welcome!
Please stop with the Biden is too old to run again nonsense! Rick Wilson's Substack pleads the case for Biden with one of the best messages I have read. Long, yes, but well worth your time to read. https://therickwilson.substack.com/p/joe-biden-for-president
As Rick Wilson says, "We're doing good, and feeling awful" - we need to stop the hand-wringing and stick to the business at hand. Nothing like an ex-Repub to call out our vacillations and remind us to get that shoulder against the wheel and push harder. We have to win this round, and flush out the bile that was once the GOP; when the ship's under attack is not the time to entertain fantasies of a cleaner victory. Time enough for that when the smoke clears and the battle is won. Our captain is proving to be a great leader, and we need to support his success by rising to this occasion, without a lot of grumbling in the foc'sle.
Thanks, Annette !
“Joe Biden Is A Strong Foreign Policy President”
I hope all read HCR/ Letters From An American today !
💙
Thank you for sharing.
The one line that stuck with me is "Biden is a Centrist" mostly because it is correct.
The hatred for Biden has long baffled me.
While I did not agree with the sentiments, I understood where the pushback on Hillary, Obama and others came from
The MAGA World hatred of Biden is just bonkers .From "the Biden crime family" to "he's a communist" (as in an actual communist!) to "he's old and drooling" none of it seems even vaguelly rooted in anything resembling reality.
But at a time when the US generally seems to be doing okay, especially vis a vis the rest of the world (economically anyway) the extreme hatred and "worst president ever!" chorus is really baffling.
NB: It seems to Biden campaign team is pushing back, accusing the mainstream media of not covering him or Trump fairly: https://www.nexttv.com/news/biden-campaign-accuses-tv-of-unbalanced-coverage
Good observations, Alan.
However, as you noted, “The MAGA World hatred of Biden is just bonkers. From "the Biden crime family" to "he's a communist" (as in an actual communist!) to "he's old and drooling" none of it seems even vaguelly rooted in anything resembling reality.”
That may describe some MAGA-ites. But I suspect that a lot is something different – intentional propaganda: if one throws excrement against the wall, some of it may stick.
To the extent ghat it’s the latter, Democratic operatives and their allies could craft counter-propaganda, highlighting the statements and then *ridiculing* them.
Yes-- those opinions don't spring from the ether--they are planted there, either by people like Bannon and his minions or by enemies of the US (Iran, China, Russia) or some combinatoin thereof.
You can see it in the way the WSJ Editorial pages and other right wing media conflate the rantings of a handful of radical left wing academics and "activists" to "the Democrat party" (they never use it "ic" at the end)--but ask "well, which elected Democrats have said that?" and they have no answer.
It is baffling to say the least… Biden has done so much for the middle and working class, for the economy, and for democracy that all states but especially red states have benefited from… and Trump did nothing for anyone but the wealthy.
Thanks for the link!
Annette, I agree! Rick Wilson and the Lincoln Project (whatever negative reviews they received in the past) are doing a better job of promoting President Biden than almost any other entity out there. I follow his Substack also, and I thought this essay he wrote was excellent. And you have to remember that this is a man who spent his life until 2016 working to defeat Democrats. They are producing the kind of vicious attack ads against Trump that the Democrats aren’t really great at doing, so it’s good to have this guy on our side.
Wow! I love this piece! I'm so glad you sent the link. "We're doing good and feeling awful!"
I guess it's our choice whether to feel awful or not. I feel scared, but every morning I get a shot of hope which carries me through the day - most of the time.
Thanks, Annette! I loved this and I posted it on my FB page!
Thanks for sharing link, Annette
This is excellent. Thank you for sharing.
Democrats believe that governing is serious business, not governtainment. That should become quite evident over the next several months.
The question is why is t it evident now?
It is to some of us. I'm hoping the rest will awaken.
The MSM covers the news the same way FleeceBlock's algorithm operates: anger, outrage and upset among readers attract eyeballs and clicks. Plus most of the unemployables haven't got the brains to find their ass with both hands on a clear day with a two hour advance notice.
There really needs to be a ROTFLH emoji to simplify the reaction to your evaluation of the media.
“Unemployables” reminds me of Hillary Clinton’s infamous “deplorables”, a haughty term that unquestionably cost her votes and possibly the 2016 election.
A major factor in working class hostility to Democrats appears to be their widespread perception that Democrats look down on them and scorn them: So they repay the scorn at the ballot box and voting machines.
Smart?
If memory serves, it was some six weeks ago when political analyst Simon Rosenberg stated, here I’m paraphrasing, that, as important as it is for Democrats to flip the VA State House and hold the Senate, the larger issue is the necessity that Republican losses serve to repudiate Governor Glenn Youngkin (Mike Johnson's doppelgänger, in my view), whom Republican elites are eyeing as VP pick to add legitimacy (indeed, purported) to the Trump ticket. I explicitly recall Rosenberg stating he was confident about 24, save this one concern, and can affirm unequivocally that no one has done more than Rosenberg to galvanize her or his followers over the past couple of months to deliver for Virginia.
Though all we can do now, aside from helping to cure ballots, as warranted, is wait for returns, I thought it worth spreading the word that Rosenberg, to the best of my memory, stated that the 23 Virginia state election would be among the most important in 23 and 24. If Democrats do well, we move on. But, if not, we must be vigilant as to Glenn Youngkin’s subsequent plans.
He’s dangerous and a threat to actually run for President. 0
Stephen, Suffice it to say we’ll learn this evening whether we succeeded in diffusing that threat.
There is no escaping the truth that a lot of Democrats, including young ones, want a younger person to run for President in 2024, and it's not Kamala Harris. I wish Biden would announce that he is done and step aside. Putting the polls aside, the stakes are too high and we are at grave risk to ignore Biden's age as a huge risk factor. Biden needs to do what he has always done: put America ahead of himself. He's been a great President, but we have to recognize that the time has come to pass the baton. We need new energy in our party. Maybe Gavin Newsom, whom I personally don't like (and I'm a liberal Californian), but he's smart and charismatic. Or some other younger and smart and articulate Democrat. Just not an old man. We have to confront that truth, and quickly.
Sorry, but these conversations about someone else are a distraction. And with two wars and Republicans intent on shutting down the federal government and ending democracy, we can't afford distractions. Joe Biden is the president. He's doing a terrific job. And unless something intervenes, to make that impossible, our job is to help him make the case.
Young. Smart. Articulate. Pete Buttigieg comes to mind.
2028 - brightest bulb in Washington DC
Very true! He is a good surrogate for President Biden!
Ugh. Pete Buttigieg would take us backward into neo-liberal balance the budget free markets not unions
He couldn’t win Texas. As much as I don’t like it, the country isn’t voting for a gay man raising two children. They’ll sooner vote for a brain dead narcissistic sociopath again.
I'd like to emphasize a link that Annette D shared. Rick Wilson presents a strong defense os Biden's qualifications as our best candidate for President: https://therickwilson.substack.com/p/joe-biden-for-president
This is a fabulous, though long, article by Rick Wilson. A must-read, I think. When it comes down to the reality of the choice, in the middle of a war (I pray it does not become World War III), the risks to democracy, and all of the other craziness that we are watching happen, I believe the only choice is this man with political experience, the ability to work with sane Republicans, (and some not sane ones), and and who has compassion towards all. I vote for Biden!
Excellent article!
I agree. But there is nothing to be gained now by pushing the subject. I didn't vote for Biden in the primary. But he has exceeded my expectations by light years. He shocked me with his comprehensive approach to every aspect of being POTUS. He has gathered around him incredible talent. Blinken and Harris have been terrific. So I am ready to be surprised again by this "old man" who I totally underestimated. Shock me again, Joe. I love it.
Yes, I agree, that Joe should have stepped aside. But it's too late now. And...nothing we are thinking about right now will be that important on November 5, 2024. The two contenders are indeed old. Anything could happen. World events are unfolding right now that we aren't aware of. WWIII may have already begun. What happens when we are in a "big war"? Most of us unite. Please read Diane Francis - link below.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-138554805
It's not about whether we/you/I would vote for him, but whether enough people will for him to win. Do we want to stick with him even if he loses? That's the question. And it isn't too late for him to decide to step aside.
No, that’s not the only question. The other question is whether a largely unknown Democrat can, after a likely bruising primary campaign, pull the pieces together and beat Trump.
Well, for better or worse, I guess we will find out if this campaign by Dean Phillips even gets off the ground. I’m more worried about it doing greater harm than greater good.
We can't let him lose. Let's look at this slate of elections today and see where we end up. And remember, polls are not reliable this far out. In fact, over the last several elections, polls have been way off.
Please please stop with this panicky discussion. Are you not listening to Robert? Biden is an exceptional President and we need to rise to this occasion to do everything we can to support him!
… and help Biden support himself politically.
Yesterday, David Axelrod called on Biden to step aside, so that chorus is growing. I can't shake the feeling that only Biden can beat Trump, though. That said, a lot of that is based on my belief that only Biden can keep the Democratic party from infighting. If he can’t then the point is moot.
I'm shocked by David Axelrod's comment! How does that help us retain our democracy?
Agree but what if a miracle happens and Trump doesn’t run because the Republicans switch horses and steal the election legally with a younger charismatic candidate
People who advocate finding another Democrat to replace Biden are, unwittingly, reconstituting Democrats’ circular firing squad. If Biden is pulled down, there will be a food fight among Democrats; they are likely to approach the 2024 election fragmented, and nursing mutual resentments. Moreover, the Democratic nominee will likely be a person who has no national reputation, and will likely have to play catch-up.
Pulling Biden down will likely be a godsend to Republicans.
Agree. One should not change horses in midstream. If anything was going to be done about this, it should’ve been done many months ago.
Good point.
Janet, Less than a year out, while I believe it important that we advance our judgements regarding Biden’s viability, I maintain we also advance Plan B in the event Biden stays in the race.
And Plan B is simple: Get out and vote, and take all of your friends with you. We can talk about younger and more attractive non-Harris alternatives in 4 years. One highlight of the second Biden administration will be his appointment of the VP to the Supreme Court.
Amen!
Dave, Your Plan B is necessary, but hardly sufficient. I’ll have more to say moving forward.
I'll be interested in what you have to say, because, in politics, the simplest and most straightforward moves are frequently the most effective and delivering a resounding defeat to GOP candidates across the board led by the failed insurrectionist seems about at clear as it can be. Following up by revitalizing the Democratic party and offering candidates at all levels a la BlueMissouri and similar organizations is a painfully obvious and necessary next step.
Dave, While I’ll have far more to say, a big piece will be pressing for surrogate messengers.
You can double whatever you're going to say on that score Barbara Jo. The silence from his Cabinet and other potential surrogates has been deafening, very disappointing, and very much contributory to the poor public perception.
He’s not going anywhere and frankly it’s too late to switch horses.
You guys are courting danger. If Trump wins, there won't be a Plan B for 2028.
Janet, Regardless of how hard one presses for her or his position concerning Biden’s viability, if he stays in the race, we have no choice but to press for a rigorous Plan B.
Biden is perceived as being “ grandfatherly” by many young people and they want a fighter with the same energy and moxie as Trump to punch back. We definitely need a puncher but it has to be someone other than Biden or Harris.
But it would also help if that person started out with national recognition, so (s)he wouldn’t be playing catch-up; and could reunify a badly fragmented Democratic Party so it could conduct an effective campaign; and … ; and … .
And by the way, have “many young [liberal/‘progressive’] people” been raised up to be ageists?
You write, in part, “To be clear, Congress should take action to reduce deficits and the national debt.”
Why oh why oh why oh … do you write such mythology?
The US national debt & deficit are not economic problems. They are only “asserted to be problems” by people & economists who do not understand Modern Money.
I’d expect you of all people to get that.
The US has a sovereign currency, we have a monopoly on creation of dollars. Therefore we can not “run out” of $$$ any more than baseball can run out of runs or football out of touchdowns.
The debt & deficit are purely financial accounting artifacts. If the deficit was $5T, National debt 100T and unemployment was 25% would you say “gack no more government spending until budget is balanced, we must cut spending?”
Of course not. The actual condition of the citizenry is vastly more important than the accounting results of fiscal decisions.
This is not the place to get into the somewhat gnarly details of how the US Treasury works. But in a nutshell, at the Federal level, tax dollars collected are NOT in actuality a constraint on federal spending … as long as there are real physical resources that can be put to work … increasing government spending is a good thing. Such spending generates more demand which puts more people to work.
So please Mr Hubbell, stop with the deficit/debt worry thing.
I have deleted my reply.
Want me to delete mine?
Excellent, Susan. I would go a bit further and recommend everyone reading this to get an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory. That has surely expanded my understanding of the deficit and the national debt.
All that said, these tax cuts for the richest Americans will never lead to a greater American just a more inequitable one. Cutting funding to the IRS is a major step BACKWARDS.
Not so fast re deleting your reply, Mr. Hubbell:
I, for one, am not so certain that national debt isn’t, or will not be, a problem. It depends, in part, on what fraction of the federal budget has to be devoted to servicing the debt – whether it begins to squeeze out expenditures we’d like the government to make. That, in turn, depends on the economic environment, e.g., whether the economic stimulation becomes inflationary or whether the stimulation is needed to countervail against economic sluggishness.
Since the answer depends on specific circumstances, there is no “set” answer to the issue.
There is exactly ZERO evidence for “crowding out.” That argument is straight outta Chicago School economics aka Markets Uber Alis. To say that for the US, the monopoly controller of the world’s reserve currency, the debt/deficit “might” matter is like saying a mosquito bite on an elephant might matter.
Consider the magnitudes. GDP (the nation’s income), about $30Trillion. The debt, about $35T.
Strip out zeros so numbers are within comprehension:
If your household income was $300,000k, would you worry about a $350,000k mortgage? Or the interest on it?
I’m amused that I’m being accused of following the University of Chicago economics# playbook. I always thought of myself as a Keynes follower (I’m not an economist, but some of my friends are (seriously!)).
My concern was/is that, at some point, payments of interest *on government debt*, which already are a significant fraction of the *government budget*, could interfere with and constrain sensible budgeting and appropriations (I assume that the federal budget will grow slowly, at best).
# In an “earlier life”, my wife was an editor, including for a major economic forecasting firm. She, like Robert Hubbell, used the University of Chicago style guide.
Almost daily, this recurring thought pops up: Your former fellow litigators are shedding tears that you are no longer serving among them. You are a gift that doesn’t stop giving.
Afternoon Robert, Did not mean to be condescending. I apologize. You seem so “up” on so many topics I figured you knew about the Modern Money upheaval in Econo-world. The vast majority of “economists” don’t know much about actually functioning economies. What they know is a “theory” about “the market economy” and when actually existing economies don’t behave as per the models, they don’t change the models, they contend that the economy is “wrong.”
It’s a religion not a “science.”
The mystification is on purpose. Much like the Catholic Church ... mass in Latin so commoners can’t understand/discussion in math do commoners csnt understand.
So again, sorry. I really enjoy your essays & did not mean to be a jerk.
Susan
The deliberate, meticulously planned massacre of Oct 7 had one purpose only: lure or entice the Israelis to respond strongly – and the stronger the better. Hamas was not only anticipating a harsh reaction, they were welcoming it, indeed betting on it.
The massacre, the worst pogrom imaginable of October 7 has shaken if not shattered the perception that Israel can guarantee the security of its citizens against all threats from abroad. It is 9/11 on steroids. This has repercussions for Israelis as well as the Jewish community worldwide. Israel has to respond and finish Hamas once and for all. This will lead to an incredible number of civilian casualties on the Palestinian side which in turn will lead to international protests, an isolation of Israel and rising anti-Semitism worldwide.
So far the devilish script of Hamas plays out exactly as planned – in fact it probably exceeds the expectations of Hamas. So we have a Democratic Congresswoman who sides unequivocally with the goal of a terrorist organization (From the River to the See means the annihilation of Israel) and announces that she would like to throw the 2024 election and bring back Trump because President Biden does not play along. Wow! Hamas, the Ajatollahs in Iran,Putin and Trump are high-fiving each other.
https://twitter.com/RashidaTlaib/status/1720520713226908144?s=20
I agree with you but you do not go far enough...
I'm not paranoid, nor a conspiracy theorist. I believe that these worldwide demonstrations against Israel are too spontaneous, with too many Palestinian flags, and too much of the same rhetoric not to be a part of the plan by Iran and Hamas.
I want to ask the readers out there what would you do in the following scenario? One of your neighbors raped your wife, shot one of your children, and took some of your other family members hostage? They have done the same to some of your other family members? Wouldn't you want the FBI and police involved? Wouldn't you go after your neighbors with everything you've got? And what would you do if those brutal, unfeeling neighbors of yours told you, the police, and the FBI to back off? Would you give those people who raped and killed your family a break...and they are also determined to rid you of your home, your business, and your other family members in your town? Would you back off? Would you give up while your family suffers and your own life is at risk?
Your comment leaves out a few relevant facts.
The Israelis have imprisoned the Palestinians for over 50 years in Gaza with occasional "mowing of the grass", Noam Chomsky's description. On the West Bank the Israeli military is supporting settlers who are blatantly stealing Palestinian land and shooting Palestinians who resist them. Hamas and the horrible hatred it espouses didn't spring out of nowhere; it was made in Israel by Israelis.
And I can't speak for you but I'm damn glad I don't have neighbors who are trying to steal my land and thankful for a government who would protect me from them if they decided to. That's just one of the things that the Palestinian citizens of Israel deserve from the Israeli government that they are not getting.
Finally, as I've said many times the US government has no business supporting the apartheid government of Israel.
Michael Tabony conflates Gaza with the West Bank. Gaza was given complete freedom from Israeli control during the mid 1970s: Ariel Sharon’s régime forced *all* Israelis out of Gaza.
So what happened in Gaza was not Israel’s doing.
In what might be described as a civil war between gangs (Hamas and the PLO), Hamas won, forced out the PLO, and set up a dictatorship.
The Gazans were not “imprisoned”. Under Hamas, Gaza *behaved* like enemies (how else should one characterize a group that, militarily unprovoked, launches rockets into Israel?) and are being *isolated* like enemies. That’s self-protection by Israel, not imprisonment.
Moreover, unlike imprisonment, Gazans before October 7th had been permitted to work in Israel and make money; sick Gazans were admitted for treatment in Israeli hospitals.
We need to message 📣 better about the GOP’s push to privatize Medicare. Many older voters don’t believe it will affect them while younger voters are tuned out on the issue.The GOP would love to inject 💉Medicare Reach(initiated by Trump admin ) with steroids.Unfortunately the Biden Admin is not helping, simply renaming the unpopular Medicare Direct Contracting to Medicare Reach.Not even a 🩹band-aid.
I’ve contacted my GOP/ Freedom Caucus Rep many times. Never received a call back except when I contacted about the dangers of Medicare Reach. They do not want this out there about TRADITIONAL MEDICARE !! 📣📣
⬇️
The majority of American seniors choose Traditional Mediacre, which does not allow third-party entities like insurance companies to interfere with the doctor-patient relationship. The REACH program betrays the promise of Traditional Medicare by placing middlemen between seniors and the care they need … and allowing those middlemen to walk away with enormous profits.
-Seniors are enrolled in REACH entities without their full understanding or consent
-The only way for seniors to leave a REACH entity is to find a new primary care doctor
-REACH entities have a financial incentive to restrict seniors’ care and reward investors
https://protectmedicare.net/threat-to-seniors/
Medicare Advantage plans are a cash cow for the insurance companies. A lot of people do not realize that when they go on Medicare Advantage they have disenrolled from Medicare. The money goes to the insurance companies to manage...and the companies are rewarded for more procedures. That's why you see so many ads on TV for MA.
Medicare has saved seniors from going broke. It has enabled seniors to have 2nd homes, RVs, help grandkids with college, and so much more. It is intertwined with the tapestry of our economy. If Medicare goes our economy sinks faster than you can say 1929 stock crash and Covid
Journalism is a tough, tough competitive business. If you are a newspaper, you want to "own" a story, especially if it's a story that could have legs.Your journalists yearn to be the "experts" in the story. Hence we have Nate Cohn and the NYTs poll.
Shame on them. With a highly biased and poorly built participant group the NYTs has made a mockery of their own news standard; "All the news that's fit to print"
Just generating "click-bait". Shame on them.
They went all in on that poll yesterday too-- there were easily a half dozen stories and op-eds that played off of it.
I wonder if the NYT is trying to hedge their bets out of fear of what would happen to them if the GOP prevails next year.
I know this is bordering on heretical in this space BUT even taking on board the meaninglessness of polls at this stage, I do feel rattled. I have been enormously surprised and impressed by Biden’s first term; he has been an outstanding president but why oh why run again??? There are so many eligible and capable Dems in the wings. In the face of national disaster we should be fielding someone who looks young and vital. I can’t believe that at his age Biden is stupidly clinging to office. Where are the voices urging him to go while NOW with his legacy in tact.
Hi, Jennifer. I understand your anxiety. Here's the problem: People who want Joe to step aside imagine the perfect candidate replacing him. Spoiler alert: that candidate does not exist. People frequently mention Gavin Newsom. Really? The governor of the most populous, liberal, Democratic state in the union is going to persuade swing voters in a handful of midwestern and southern states to vote Democratic? Maybe. But it is not a given, by any means.
if you really think Joe Biden should step aside, do the hard thing and propose an alternative, rather than force Joe to compete against an imaginary contender.
Yes !!!
Thank you, Robert.
“Stupidly clinging to office”......you’re seeing something that’s not there. If ever we need a steady hand at the helm it is now and the next 4 years. He doesn’t need to be undermined by his own party.
Stop it is t going to happen and stop being scared and let’s get together and make it happen.
The circus is in town in New York acting like a civil case against the Trump organization which has already been found guilty of fraud. Trump’s testimony confirmed for me that Trump is floundering and his strategy (the only one he has) is to attack the judicial system and people and make himself seem like the victim. He made a lot of noise and he got a lot of media coverage but did he win the minds of the voters? He looked and seemed pathetic but we can’t take his act for granite. The New York trial was a dress rehearsal for future trials and the federal and state prosecutors must decide when they will finally say “ enough is enough” and take the appropriate actions and sanctions. You and I could never get away with what Trump did yesterday in court. The American voters are waiting patiently to have the hammer fall on Donald Trump and remind him he is not above the law or allowed to denigrate the justice system. Enough is enough.
“ He made a lot of noise … . He looked and seemed pathetic … .”
Trump is being a crybaby. Pass it on.
I don't understand how repubs think cutting Social Security and Medicare is a winning issue, but I also don't understand why Dems have never come out strongly (or at all?) for the very simple solution to Social Security solvency -- eliminate the cap! I deeply resent having to pay FICA tax on every dollar I earn while people who earn much more than I do don't. It's incredibly unfair and just plain dumb to ignore this simple solution to the ongoing problem of Social Security solvency.
This is not Israel’s war against Hamas. This is Hamas’ war against Israel who is trying to defend herself. Israel did not ask for this.
Hamas hides in hospitals and schools.
Bombs do not discriminate
The killing must stop
It is up to Hamas
HI Alison,
I agree with you. To add, there is a professor here at University of Montana from Iran, Dr. Merhdad Kia. He says clearly that Iran is behind Hamas. In addition Hamas and Iranian leaders have been welcomed into Putin's arms recently. He calls Hamas "Peace Assassins." Dr. Kia cannot go back to Iran because he was tried "in abstentia" and will be executed. He goes on to make strong cases that Hamas are not only terrorists they are supported by terrorist regimes, that do not give equal rights to women, LGBTQ, and are murderous. I could go on but it would be redundant.
One more note: I believe there is one person on this blog that is trolling me. He seems to be justifying the genocide of Jews and of Israel.