Good news! House advances aid bills

April 19, 2024

The supplemental aid bills for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan will be brought to the floor for a vote. House foreign aid bills for Ukraine and Israel move ahead with Democrats' help : NPR. They will pass with varying levels of majority support from Democrats and minority support from Republicans. The development is welcome news after months of delay.

So, what happened?

The simplest explanation for the sudden turn of fortune for the bills is that Speaker Mike Johnson decided that providing aid to Ukraine is more important than preserving his job as Speaker. He has, in effect, called the bluff of the Freedom Caucus by declaring publicly that aid for Ukraine is an absolute necessity—and daring them to remove him from his job. See The Hill, Furious House conservatives rail at Johnson but haven’t altered his Ukraine plan

The US will provide Ukraine with essential aid because Mike Johnson was (finally) willing to do something many politicians would not do—put their job on the line. That selfless act has confused a lot of people, including me. One of my favorite political commentators, Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo devoted his Editor’s Blog on Thursday to scratching his head over Johnson’s sudden willingness to do the right thing without regard to his personal interests.

Marshall writes,

I’m still not entirely sure what to make of this. It should be obvious I have zero brief for this guy. But I will note that what one consistently hears from House Democrats is that they see him differently than McCarthy. To them McCarthy was a backstabber and a notorious liar. They say Johnson has been straight with them. And to be clear, as at least I understand it, this means simply that he hasn’t lied to them, told them one thing and then double crossed them. That presumably provides a level of trust that they can come to some understanding with him.

While Marshall’s description of Johnson’s leadership qualities should be seen as the minimum level of integrity and trustworthiness for a Speaker, the fact that Johnson clears that bar is notable in today’s Republican Party.

One reader (a political commentator and author whose opinion I respect), emailed me to say I have been unfair to Johnson in failing to recognize that he has likely sacrificed his Speakership to ensure that Ukraine receives the aid necessary to continue its resistance to Russia’s invasion.

So, we have a complicated situation: Mike Johnson voted to support the attempted coup and endorsed reactionary efforts to deny women reproductive liberty. But at a moment when it matters most, he found his moral compass in a manner reminiscent of Mike Pence’s 72 hours of loyalty to the Constitution rather than Trump.

For however long Mike Johnson remains Speaker, let’s hope that he continues to support the aid bills for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, and that the GOP “Freedom” Caucus does not remove Johnson before he is able to bring the bills to the floor for a final vote.

Johnson’s metaphorical deathbed conversion took place against ugly, immature maneuvers by the most reactionary members of the “Freedom” Caucus. Members of that caucus feared that Johnson would make a covert attempt to change the rule permitting one member of the House to bring a motion to vacate the Chair. In response, those members created a Floor Action Response Team to guard against a surprise attempt by Johnson to increase the threshold for filing a motion to vacate. See Politico, Freedom Caucus on alert for possible moves against it by GOP leaders.

Johnson ultimately relented, issuing a statement promising not to change the rule allowing a single member to move to vacate the Speakership.

Childish acronyms aside, the Republican caucus in the House has devolved into open warfare. The details are tawdry and do not deserve additional attention unless they impede the progress of the aid bills.

In the meantime, Mike Johnson deserves credit for standing on principle over party at a time when his stand may help change the course of history.

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Comment on developments in the Middle East

Two significant developments relating to the Middle East occurred on Thursday. The US vetoed a motion that would have cleared the way to admit Palestine to the UN. See Associated Press, US vetoes UN resolution backing full UN membership for Palestine. And Israel launched an air attack inside Iran—striking a military base near the city of Isfahan. See NYTimes, Israeli Officials Claim Strikes on Iran; Blasts Reported Near Isfahan.

Both stories—particularly the latter—are still developing. Readers have already sent emails asking for comment on both stories. I need to wait for more reporting from major media sources, but I will comment as soon as I reasonably can.

I will note that President Biden urged Israel to exercise restraint and “take the win” after thwarting Iran’s retaliatory attack over the weekend. See The Hill, Biden tells Netanyahu ‘take the win’ and do not escalate after thwarted Iran attack on Israel.

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Legal developments in Trump's criminal and civil cases

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The Manhattan election interference case—a jury is selected

The prosecutors in Trump's election interference trial in Manhattan expanded their pending motion to hold Trump in contempt to include his reposting of a Fox News attack on jurors who were selected on Tuesday. A hearing on the contempt motion will take place next Tuesday.

The attacks by Fox News—and the re-posting by Donald Trump—appeared to do what Trump's lawyer could not lawfully achieve in the courtroom—remove a juror to whom they objected. By amplifying news media attacks on the juror, Trump caused the juror to rethink her ability to serve on the jury. She was dismissed on Thursday, less than forty-eight hours after she was seated on the jury.

Yesterday, I wrote that Judge Merchan should declare a mistrial each time Trump engages in conduct that intimidates the jury. One reader—Professor Laurence Tribe—was aghast at my suggestion and asked me to rethink my position. Professor Tribe wrote the following (used with his permission):

No! You’re proposing that Judge Merchan give him what he has repeatedly tried unsuccessfully to get: delay and more delay of a trial that only the misinformed regard as small potatoes. The testimony of the head of the National Enquirer alone will be devastating to the myth that Trump won the 2016 election fair and square.

Professor Tribe is right—as proven by Judge Merchan’s ability to continue jury selection at a brisk pace while setting a hearing on the contempt motion for next Tuesday. If Judge Merchan can protect jurors from irremediable harm while ensuring an impartial jury, he should push ahead to the merits. As Professor Tribe notes, the facts are damning and deserve to be heard by the public at the first opportunity. Delays are Trump's objective and should be avoided whenever possible.

But we are left with the conundrum of what to do with a defendant who intentionally disregards a gag order to intimidate jurors. A remedy must exist—otherwise we are faced with an outcome where Trump is above the law. Judge Merchan has been up to the task of controlling Trump. Let’s hope he will continue to do so.

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Judge Cannon denies motions to dismiss brought by Trump's co-defendants in defense secret retention case

Trump co-defendants Walt Nauta and Carlos De Oliveira filed motions to dismiss their indictments in the defense secrets / obstruction case pending before Judge Aileen Cannon. See New York Times, Judge in Documents Case Rejects Dismissal Motions by Trump Co-Defendants. (Accessible to all.)

The order denying the motions was correctly decided—but long overdue. Judge Cannon is slow walking the case to ensure that it is not heard before the November election. Judge Cannon initially set a trial date in May but has taken that date off calendar. There is currently no date set for trial—an unusual circumstance for a criminal case that has been pending for ten months.

The period for commencing trial prescribed in the Speedy Trial Acct is tolled (suspended) during the period that certain pretrial motions are pending. By sitting on some of Trump's motions, Judge Cannon is denying the American people its right to a speedy trial of Donald Trump on charges that he unlawfully retained national defense documents.

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Judge refuses to delay civil suit against Trump arising from Jan 6

Democratic members of Congress filed a civil suit against Trump for personal injuries arising from the assault on Congress on January 6. Trump moved to delay the civil trial until after the completion of his criminal trial in the District of Columbia that charges Trump with attempting to interfere in the 2020 election. On Thursday, the federal district judge denied Trump's motion to delay the civil trial indefinitely. See Federal judge rejects Donald Trump effort to halt Jan. 6 civil suit | Courthouse News Services.

The civil trial is awaiting the Supreme Court’s decision on Trump's presidential immunity defense. That ruling is expected by June 30, 2024. With any luck, the civil case could commence trial before Election Day in November 2024.

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Request for reader input

The National Health Service in England has issued a report on transgender care services for youth (the Cass Report). The report is 300 pages long, and I intend to read it, but political observers are already commenting on it. (It is not clear whether they have actually read the report.) See David Brooks in NYTimes, The Courage to Follow the Evidence on Transgender Care. (This article is accessible to all.)

Brooks’s op-ed seems to view the report through a political lens. If any medical or mental health professionals have read the report and have views you are willing to share, please post them in the Comment section or email me at rbhubbell@gmail.com with the subject line, “Cass Report.”

We should follow the current state of medical and mental health evidence on transgender care. But past reports have been heavily politicized. Since the Cass Report will be the subject of debate for years to come, I am committed to understanding what it says about the science of transgender care—not the politics of the debate. Thanks for any information / insights you can provide!

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Correction

Yesterday, I wrote that 41 votes were necessary to acquit Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on the articles of impeachment. That is incorrect (I was thinking about the filibuster.) As reader Stuart C noted in an email, conviction on articles of impeachment requires a two-thirds vote in the Senate. Thus, 34 votes can block a conviction, thereby resulting in an acquittal. Thanks to Stuart C for the correction.

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Opportunities for reader engagement

Join the California Grassroots Alliance as it kicks off its 2024 effort to sweep California’s six purple districts.

Kick off the 2024 election season with California Grassroots Alliance as we launch our campaign to sweep California’s six purple districts and take back the House. We’re thrilled to welcome three great keynote speakers:

• Representative Katie Porter, CA-47

• Ben Wikler, chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin

• Jessica Craven, activist, publisher of Chop Wood, Carry Water

Katie, Ben, and Jess each offer us inspiration and insights plus proven practical tips on winning in battleground districts. Next, Alliance leaders will present our election year strategy and messaging, toolkits for action, and ways you can get involved. Come on board, because the road to the House majority runs through California. Let’s hit the road!

SIGN UP HERE for Power in the House, April 24th at 7 pm Pacific

Join Jane Fonda and Dolores Huerta for a Central Valley zoom fundraiser.

Please join Central Valley Matters (CVM) for a zoom fundraiser “A Conversation with Jane Fonda and Dolores Huerta” on Thursday, April 25 at 5pm PDT. Money raised goes directly to key community groups that have a track record of getting out the vote in CA22. 

According to the Cook Report, California’s 22^nd District is the best chance to pick up a Democratic seat in the country! Biden carried it in 2020 by 13 points. For the past three years CVM has been raising funds to expand the progressive infrastructure in CA22 and support local organizations that work year-round to improve the lives of people there. This heavily Latino area is the poorest district in California, home to the United Farm Workers and a place that desperately needs a Democrat representing them.

To register click on Meet Jane Fonda and Dolores Huerta here

If you live in Texas Legislative House District 129, join Democratic candidate Doug Peterson for an in-person kick-off event on Saturday, April 20.

Doug Peterson’s Campaign Kick-off event is this Saturday, April 20! Join us from 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. at Lukas BBQ Located at 17052 Saturn Ln in Clear Lake. Former Congressman Nick Lampson and former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski will introduce and endorse Doug and speak about the campaign priorities.

We are requesting a minimum $25 donation for outstanding Lukas BBQ to be paid at the door or by using the Donate button prior to the event at this link: Home | Doug Peterson Campaign for Texas House 129 (dougpeterson4tx129.com)

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Concluding Thoughts

Stick with me on this concluding thought; it’s about you, although it starts by being about me.

I received an odd email today that disagreed with an opinion I expressed in yesterday’s newsletter. The reader said that because my opinion was wrong (i.e., the reader disagreed with my opinion), I was not credible like Heather Cox Richardson but was instead biased like Rachel Maddow. Ouch, and thank you!

Let me start by saying I am honored to be mentioned in the same sentence with both Professor Heather Cox Richardson and Rachel Maddow. They are both national treasures. And I write on Substack because HCR led the way by lending her legitimacy and stature to the platform. I find myself in such strong agreement with HCR that I cannot read her posts before I publish my newsletter because I fear I would simply parrot her thoughts—which would be unhelpful and wrong.

But back to the reader’s comment. I am not a historian, scholar, or journalist. I am a guy with a laptop, plenty of opinions, and a desire to lift people up during an anxiety-producing time in our nation’s history. The challenges we face are exacerbated by a political dynamic and media environment that exalt negativity, promote disinformation, and revel in fearmongering.

I make a conscious effort to provide a positive view of the news to counterbalance the relentless negativity of the media. I also attempt to give voice to the outrage felt by readers as each new Orwellian development is treated with boredom and dismissiveness by the media. The newsletters that receive the most feedback and affirmation can be charitably described as “rants.” Readers find those rants cathartic and affirming—in small doses.

So, yes, I inject my newsletters with copious amounts of personal opinions in the hope that readers will find those opinions affirming, validating, and inspiring. Historians and scholars must take more care in digesting the day’s events—because history will hold their analysis to a different standard.

Now let’s talk about you. The best way to process the mind-bending daily developments that beggar belief is to do so in community with others. This newsletter is not enough. My opinions could be wrong or unhelpful. But communities of like-minded people can provide a safe and supportive forum for processing the latest “Can you believe what just happened moment”—like Bill Barr’s statement that he will support Donald Trump in November because voting for Joe Biden is “national suicide.”

And here is a happy coincidence: the best place to find a community of like-minded people who can provide a safe and supportive forum for processing these challenging times is your local grassroots volunteer group. If you belong to one, you know the truth of that statement. If you do not, I urge you to join one. They need you, you need them, and our nation needs you both. It is a win, win, win.

As you write postcards, send texts, or walk neighborhoods, you can talk about the opinions I express in this newsletter, why Bill Barr is the worst Attorney General in our nation’s history, your grandkids, your hopes and fears, or what you will make for dinner.

As Jason Berlin (of Field Team 6) says, “Come for the cause, stay for the people.” The secret embedded in that statement is that they are one and the same. We, the people, are in this together. We are “the cause.” And if we hope to win, we must come together in grassroots groups to sustain and motivate one another. That’s one opinion everyone should agree with!

Talk to you tomorrow!